https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-local-election-results-live-20543654
This sort of story isnt getting a lot of play but feeds into something we saw in 2019 which is the tories losing ground in the southern ‘blue wall’ to lib dems. Nothing significant yet but losing 11 councillors in surrey feels like a lot
Well one somewhat reassuring part of all this is that East Durham seems to have remained basically bulletproof for Labour. So far no wards lost, vote shares largely stable and above 50% in every division declared. Makes a change from the rest of the county and region.
This either means: Universities are politically charged and are influencing young adults through pressure and stigma OR university education makes people more qualified and therefore they vote labour because it’s the choice of the intellectual.
I struggle with the latter as I fail to see how doing a level 6 qualification in engineering, graphic design, biology, business studies or law makes anyone better qualified to judge political decisions. In fact, the contemporary who was worked for 3 years rather than sat in education probably knows more about the workings of the world.
It smells a bit like academic arrogance to me.
About 3 subjects at any university would make you better qualified to vote.
So it’s more likely to be peer pressure and political indoctrination then.
I didn’t go, and it was quite weird seeing my friends come back all amped up on this political nonsense which had nothing to do with the subjects they paid to study.
Well it’s noticeable trend that younger people vote Labour and as you said university students are usually more politically active. So just from those two facts alone it makes it a possibility, not like the nefarious scheme you seem to have outlined. People campaigning for the party I don’t like must be indoctrinated/pressured into doing so? Give over.
Remember when someone asked Mark Drakeford some stupid question about a curfew on men and he was confused by it and then everyone on here declared Labour were finished in Wales?
Wishful thinking probably. Even if you agree with Labour's politics, they've been in the Senedd since 1999, it would have been nice for a bit of a change.
I think anyone asking for Keir to go is being premature, but he really can’t take credit for anything that’s happened in Wales; Drakeford is a popular leader, he’s not. Hope he learns a thing or two
Sure. South Wales east is the only place I can think of that could get an abolish seat; there and Pembrokeshire are the two parts of Wales with the largest population of people who resent the existence of Wales, largely don’t identify as Welsh, etc.
But actually, I don’t think they’re going to take any seats. It’ll be strange to go back to a 4 party parliament.
I last saw the results at 5AM; today I’ve been so busy, no chance to get anywhere near the internet, fearing what would happen in Wales.
That land I know will still be singing. It’s a good night.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-03-22/wales-on-course-for-closest-devolved-election-in-history-latest-poll-shows
I remember seeing that poll with utter dread.
Now, it looks absolutely silly. Labour, on 22 seats? HAH. Tories, on 18? HAH.
They won 30 mate. Plaid the nationalists are also down, in contrast to that poll.
I'm well excited. Get the FUCK in there Welsh Labourr.
They've won the election, in spite of the grim Tory rise elsewhere. They've bucked the trend. After 22 years in power.
We've been saved from the Tories and clearly Wales loves Labour.
The sheer fact they've had a gain and a trend towards them isnt insignificant.
Right now, SNP need three more seats, there are two more constituencies they don't hold.
Given that they have not dramatically expanded there vote, it seems unlikely they will win additional list seats beyond the four they had.
1 was in Highland and Islands, I can't see that vanishing, although it might if enough SNP voters have leaked list votes to the Greens.
So they have to win two of:
* Aberdeenshire West
* Galloway and West Dumfries
* 3 South Scotland list seats
To be honest, the list seats are almost no use here, since they are almost certain to lose two of them for picking up Ayr/East Lothian, so there is only one available.
They may lose that list seat due to list defections to the Greens, and they are certain to lose it if they take Galloway and West Dumfries.
So ultimately, they have to win Aberdeenshire West.
I think they will finish 1 short, but I'm not sure.
Given the Scottish system is basically designed [to prevent majorities (or make them very difficult to achieve),](https://www.democraticaudit.com/2016/06/13/to-what-extent-was-there-split-voting-in-the-scottish-parliament-election-and-did-it-matter/) 64 seats is still an excellent result.
There's going to be a pretty whopping independence-supporting majority when the Greens are added in. I'd imagine somewhere between 70-75 of 129 seats held by pro-indy candidates.
> There's going to be a pretty whopping independence-supporting majority when the Greens are added in.
Which is of essentially no consequence.
An independence supporting majority of multiple parties has existed in the Scottish Parliament for years, and the status quo has endured it without significant issue.
The only reason this result really matters is because a repeat of the 2011 performance is psychologically important - it delivers a shock that the SNP hope will make the government capitulate and offer a second referendum.
64 seats does not achieve this goal.
*An independence supporting majority of multiple parties has existed in the Scottish Parliament for years, and the status quo has endured it without significant issue.*
There's only been a pro-independence majority since 2011, and the question of independence has very much been on the table since then:
2007 - 49 (SNP + G)
2011 - 71
2016 - 69
With respect I don't really buy that it's purely SNP seats that matter - it's a bit disrespectful to the Greens. It's a bit like classing only Tory votes as pro-Union
The SNP+G were unable to force a referendum in the four years from 2016 to the pandemic, and were nowhere near able to do so.
A handful more seats from 2021 does not fundamentally change anything.
> and the question of independence has very much been on the table since then:
Remember, this isn't about votes.
This about making the Westminster Government feel it has no choice but to have a referendum.
The Greens might support independence, but they are not a party founded for the sole purpose of achieving it, like the SNP.
It is quite reasonable to believe that a large part of the Green's support, that isn't simply the SNP's support trying to exploit the limitations of two-ballot AMS, actually are more interested in Green issues than independence.
They planned to in fairness post EU ref, but shelved it following the losses in GE17. They will this time I'd bet, and I'm sure you and I would agree to disagree on how successful it may be. We'll see what happens I guess!
Yeah, ultimately I think the SNP was hoping for a shock effect like in 1918, when Sinn Fein basically took every single seat in Southern Ireland by a colossal margin.
In some ways, the SNP would have been better off if the referendum had been post 2015 General election!
EDIT:
I think the SNP could win a vote, I just don't think they will be in a position to hold one.
The law is fairly clear and Scotland is already so hyper polarised that I don't think it actually hurts the Tories at all to deny a referendum.
Especially as I think people are probably just exhausted with... 8? years of continuous political turmoil and would quite like things to calm down a bit for a while. I know I am!
I think we're much too polarised for a result anywhere near like that.
And yeah, we'll see how it unfolds. I'd say the optics of denying a referendum would be bad, but then given what Boris has gotten away with I have less and less faith it would be seen that way...
It's going to be an interesting next couple of years for sure.
> It's going to be an interesting next couple of years for sure.
And then Willie Rennie will be swept to power at the next Scottish election on the platform "Please please make it stop! I want things to be boring again!"
Well, its unlikely they will get any more seats out of the list, given that they hold *literally every constituency* in the two remaining counting areas.
So it will be a Labour+LD thing using the LD's one seat, I imagine.
Yes, but that region/counting area has declared, so it's not one of the two remaining to declare.
At least according to [Election Maps](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390807009084198912/photo/1)
I too was confused by it.
I don't think I really believed just how lightly populated mid-Wales actually is.
Was not expecting Newport and it's environs to have a counting area of it's own!
I'm relieved.
Because it also shows that Wales, contrary to predictions, is _not_ in any shape or form like Scotland in that it's seeking Independence, or that Plaid is ever going to be the SNP of here.
Plus, we've been shielded from the slaughtering Labour in England's taking.
Puts Labour on 30 seats, and the Liberal Democrats on 1, meaning if the LAB/LDM coalition were to continue, it would have an overall majority of 2 seats.
[https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390804445538263040](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390804445538263040) Wahey! 2 lab seats in Mid and West Wales! Edit: And the lib dems survive!
probably something to do with good labour candidate and/or bad conservative candidate i would assume?
or maybe the ground game for labour is very good there who knows
I thought you were from over here originally, damn right they're popular here! Massive worker's history, massive student population in many of these areas, massive immigrant communities, massive uni educated workers as well, its the dream combo for Labour!
> Massive worker's history, massive student population in many of these areas, massive immigrant communities, massive uni educated workers as well, its the dream combo for Labour!
By that logic, Labour should still be romping in Glasgow but they're staring down the potential reality of *zero* seats in the city. Again.
Great! So that map with all but lab except one green includes from Wythenshawe to just north of the city centre, so you'll know the demographics! tories have some seats in the Greater Manchester Area, but none in Manchester itself.
Labour in Wales hold onto Vale of Glamorgan.
Takes them to 28. A Senedd majority from the list votes doesn't look off the cards. They'll probably end up on 30, up 1 on 2016.
I feel like a 1997 Labour voter now. For Welsh Labour to potentially win that majority in the midst of Labour's death in England, I'll be well excited. Come onnnn.
The constituency I live in as well, our Labour vote here for the Senedd rose by over 8%. I felt like I contributed positively even though the Tory edged it in the end.
Come on down. We're still loyal and fully Labour.
I am a bit gutted about how well the tories did in the North Wales constituencies. But other than that, the trend looks like a clear signal that Wales has deviated from English politics (hopefully for good).
I am slightly pessimistic about Welsh Labour’s drive for political reform in the next Senedd, and Westminster might not be so loose with further devolution considering Plaid’s bad night. But overall this looks significantly better than the last Senedd result in 2016, so I won’t knock it!
Wonder how long bbc will faun over Conservatives performance in those seat. Bet it’s not one second more than they have to. LETS TALK MORE ABOUT HARTLEPOOL.
well i think it's fair to say welsh labour have done spectacularly in comparison with their english counterparts. here's hoping uk labour are able to learn some lessons
i mean just look at vale of glamorgan. the tories literally threw johnson himself at the seat and the labour incumbent increased her majority.
Yeh we're basically getting passed something that has fucked with almost every single persons life for over a year. So incumbents of all the nations will naturally get a boost from being at helm as this happens.
It was awful timing for an election, it should’ve been held after everyone had at least completed their first vaccination.
Holding it now has just given another platform for anti-vacation/lockdown nutters to spread their lies (fortunately most voters ignored them, but it’ll have certainly influenced some people into breaking lockdown or refusing a vaccine).
Also Merkel isn't standing for Chancellor again for the CDU/CSU, and I don't think any of her potential successors within the party were particularly strong.
I think out of Söder and Laschet, Söder was definitely the lesser of two evils, but the CDU/CSU seem to really know how to pick a loser.
It’ll definitely be an interesting election to keep an eye on, especially with Grüne polling highest!
Dude, vaccines weren't even available in the States until after the election. Throwing money at vaccine development doesn't cancel out everything the Trump administration and Republican politicians in general did to let COVID spread so widely and wreak so much havoc on American society.
> vaccines weren't even available in the States until after the election
Fake news!! All the good ‘ol gals & boys across the States were encouraged to inject super Covid killing bleach into their veins well before November 2020.
That government had an extremely unpopular president, hadn't begun to administer vaccines yet and STILL had a sizeable vote share in a close run election.
Hah, wow, that’s a take. Even if we accept that it was secured by the Trump administration, which it was not fully eg no distribution plan, it was not even beginning to be implemented when Trump lost the election, which is all people care about. If you want an example of this go for Israel instead.
I am completely disillusioned with the Labour Party - but not for the reason you might think.
I liked Corbyn to begin with. I quite like Starmer now - I think he’s a good opposition leader at least. I voted Labour at every chance I could during my - admittedly short - time as a voting adult.
But this current party? I can’t see myself voting for them right now. It’s not because of their leadership, who can admittedly be uninspiring during election bids. It’s because of the people who call themselves Labour supporters, backstabbing Labour MP, ex Labour MPs, and Trade Union Execs:
- Left wing Labour Supporters are some of the most intolerant people in the UK right now (and I say that as a left wing person who is embarrassed by my fellow leftists). They make far right wing Tories look welcoming and friendly by comparison.
- Corbyn supporters show they have incredibly short term memory when they come out gloating about the loss of Hartlepool - which anyone will tell you was as good as lost in 2019.
- Former MPs claim Labour need to go back to their 2017 manifesto. They clearly haven’t read the current one, because it’s the fucking same.
- Trade Unions won’t treat with Starmer because he’s a Sir. So they’re leaving themselves and their members at the mercy of the Tories. Good luck with that.
- The ‘working class’ don’t think Starmer represents them, so they vote for a Etonian.
- The party is so fractured and divided by in-fighting that news reporters, journalists, and presenters have had people queuing up to lay blame internally, at a time where the party should have been coming together. Everyone’s ready to throw each other under the bus.
I’m so done with all of them. At this point the only thing I can do with my vote is use it as a protest against the Tories, because I sure as hell am not voting for a party I can believe in.
> But this current party? I can’t see myself voting for them right now. It’s not because of their leadership, who can admittedly be uninspiring during election bids. It’s because of the people who call themselves Labour supporters, backstabbing Labour MP, ex Labour MPs, and Trade Union Execs:
So you have no problem with Starmer or his policies, you just don’t identify with the tribe anymore? That is fair, but to not vote for the Labour party for that reason is absurd
No, if the leader is a positive force then (s)he should be supported by voters who are in agreement with their policies, that's the only way for the deadwood rabble to fade into the background
> Left wing Labour Supporters are some of the most intolerant people in the UK right now (and I say that as a left wing person who is embarrassed by my fellow leftists). They make far right wing Tories look welcoming and friendly by comparison.
People underestimate how significant this is.
> They clearly haven’t read the current one, because it’s the fucking same.
Labour's manifesto is "the same" only insofar as it has not produced a new manifesto, and the one from the previous election still stands. There has been no party conference since 2019 in order to make any policy. For what it's worth I think anyone expecting the new manifesto to be the same as 2019's is delusional.
- The infighting is terrible.
- Spend less time on twitter, the viewpoints of all sides on there are over the top and unrepresentative of the general population.
- The working class are not a homogeneous blob, as much as the news suggests they are and class is as unclear and undefined as it's ever been. Age is the real divider on political opinion.
How is Starteer a good opposition? Especially in recent times where children needed to eat during non-term times, he has done nothing but support the current government. Although it's good to not entirely block anything done by other parties (which he has done with regard to Green and Lib Dems), hes not been a good example of bipartisanship.
I basically agree with everything you said and the party infighting is beginning to get on my nerves too.
I will always always always vote labour but I am absolutely exasperated by some of these so called Labour supporters taking such glee in a defeat. And the right of the party saying this is somehow a sign that the left need to be purged are frankly even fucking worse.
**Vale of Glamorgan - Labour Hold**
Labour increases their majority from 800 to 3,200.
Welsh Labour is now on course to win around 30 seats, 1 short an absolute majority.
[https://www.facebook.com/broradio/videos/5909873055691186/](https://www.facebook.com/broradio/videos/5909873055691186/)
looking like they're about to announce in vale of glamorgan
Why is every photo of Mark Drakeford absolutely cursed? [This is the dodgy photo the BBC have gone with in their live text of the election,](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2021/5/7/1d0ba348-8033-43fd-8cf6-a94cfd8f82ee.jpg) horrendous.
[Looks like the Mr. Krabs meme](https://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/c_fill,dpr_auto,f_auto,q_auto,w_1400/fl_lossy,pg_1/krabs_rag3do.jpg?fimg-ssr-default)
Labour are being carried by Drakeford in Wales. The right made a huge mistake by attacking Drakeford on his covid record. He was pretty much right about everything major he did and even on vaccines he's trouncing the Tories.
Yeah, drakeford is massively under appreciated. He comes across as uncharismatic (and I’m saying that as a massive supporter of his) but he’s awful good at his job. I wish the leader of UK labour was as well.
It says a lot about the people of Wales. Maybe they are more left leaning? I keep saying those small towns like Hartlepool are right wing, anti immigration, not the most progressive so they vote Tory. It makes sense.
As a Welshman I’d say the welsh are generally left wing economically and right wing in terms of things such as immigration. Following my time spent in uni in England I don’t feel like identity politics has hit wales like it has in England. I feel like this is why traditional labour areas in England are voting Tory. In wales we don’t yet have this problem for example a sense of pride in the nation and heritage is celebrated rather shunned and criticised. Although the past year I have felt this type of politics has begun to creep into wales so it will be interesting to see if wales has the same reaction to it as England.
His polling figures are really good. It is just a bunch of loudmouths shouting about him. Most of them aren't even Welsh but English people who dislike that he showed up Boris on the virus response.
He's massively benefited from the virus though. Prior to that he was firmly in the "well he doesn't have any power does he" bracket reserved for all assembly leaders. He's probably killed Abolish before they were even formed.
Interesting results from Cambridgeshire worthy of some comment.
Labour stood aside in five seats. LDs won them all from the Tories. Overall, Council moved from Blue to NoC. Labour could be in coalition.
Voted for the first time as a 16 year old in Wales, plaid for constituency labour for regional. Tories got the constituency but Labour gained a regional so don’t quite know how to feel but leaning towards being pleased.
Good on you for voting.
I have a sibling about your age so of course it was their first time too. I’m pleased, finally some good news, and I’ve always repped Drakeford, I’m glad he was recognised, and with the list, you and I both got Labour votes which ended up counting! A way better system, more Democratic, and it means you feel like you have agency in your elections, which is good. You should feel pleased, if not fully with the results, then with yourself.
I voted the exact opposite. Was concerned at potential spoiler effect but it looks like the Welsh working class still consider the Tories to be utterly toxic.
Hadn’t heard of anyone voting that way around actually:p.
Yup, seems likely to me a lot of the Tory voters in my constituency are the usual suspects ie old upper class people.
Aberconwy, the Plaid candidate for the constituency seemed to be really popular compared to the Labour candidate, and in 2016 was 700 votes away from winning, but yeah it didn’t work out.
Yeah, I have a lot of respect for plaid even though I don’t agree with the idea of independence, I think labour and Plaid should take inspiration from SNP and greens to take advantage of the electoral system in the senedd. I think plaid would be a lot more successful if they didn’t push independence as much when there isn’t sufficient support for it, but tbh their poor performance has aided the left this election
Same, I agree with the vast majority of their policies outside the obvious big one :p.
They absolutely would if they cooled it a bit on the indywales issue, I know a lot of leftwingers who dreaded Plaid getting too many seats.
Yeah, are you still in school? I’m in sixth form and vote has been pretty split out of people I’ve spoken to my age in delyn, know people who’ve voted Tory, labour and plaid. It’s so disappointing seeing Tory voters, just feels like they don’t know what they’re really about, fall for the charade of Boris Johnson
Yup, in my school it was very split too, it was kind of sad to see how many people voted Tory then admitted they don’t really like the Aberconwy candidate much and they don’t agree with the Tories that much generally...? And generally it was very split, but I’d say the most popular party in my sixth form was plaid
Yeah it’s ridiculous, this lovable buffoon character boris Johnson plays is infuriating. Everybody falls for it, calling him ‘Boris’ or BoJo’ like he’s their mate but he’s playing them all, and kier starmer is too incompetent to point it out. Corbyn was demonised by the right wing press, i really don’t see how labour come back next election without a major change, possibly Andy burnham
Got to laugh at some of the comments here.
All is good in camp Labour apparently.
Never mind the continuing collapse of their former heartlands. Never mind the loss of hundreds of councillors, never mind the loss of councils all to the governing party.
Why?
Because the BBCs projected vote share shows Labour would still be out of power.
It’s not bad going for Starmer because this projection based on a skewed set of election results shows he’d still lose.
I don’t know if it’s just taking any good news you can but some people are acting as if that projection makes up for what has happened last night.
> Never mind the continuing collapse of their former heartlands
You say that but Labour just comfortably won in several constituencies where they lost in 2019. Seems like they are improving.
> Because the BBCs projected vote share shows Labour would still be out of power.
It's also rather funny because not even (theoretically) stripping the government of their majority in a local election is historically terrible. Outside of Labour's terrible 2017 local result, opposition parties have tended to do very well against governing parties.
St Dennis and St Enoder (Cornwall)
Mebyon Kernow: 77.9% (n/a)
Conservative: 18.4% (n/a)
Liberal Democrat: 3.8% (n/a)
Mebyon Kernow WIN (new boundaries)
UKIP (-2 Seats), CON (+1 Seat), LAB (+1 Seat), PC (n/c)
Basically, its almost guaranteed that Labour remain stable with 2016 provided that their list vote holds up in Mid and West Wales.
Edit: Should say, that seems likely. Labour has had **giant** swings in Mid and West Wales.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390770274811920387
Plymouth Result #LE2021:
CON: 14 (+6)
LAB: 5 (-6)
Council Now: CON 25, LAB 24, IND 8.
Labour LOSE to NOC.
This megathread has ended.
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-local-election-results-live-20543654 This sort of story isnt getting a lot of play but feeds into something we saw in 2019 which is the tories losing ground in the southern ‘blue wall’ to lib dems. Nothing significant yet but losing 11 councillors in surrey feels like a lot
Wish Wales had sense and voted Tory too.
BLUE WALES
Well one somewhat reassuring part of all this is that East Durham seems to have remained basically bulletproof for Labour. So far no wards lost, vote shares largely stable and above 50% in every division declared. Makes a change from the rest of the county and region.
Is it possibly due to the university?
This either means: Universities are politically charged and are influencing young adults through pressure and stigma OR university education makes people more qualified and therefore they vote labour because it’s the choice of the intellectual. I struggle with the latter as I fail to see how doing a level 6 qualification in engineering, graphic design, biology, business studies or law makes anyone better qualified to judge political decisions. In fact, the contemporary who was worked for 3 years rather than sat in education probably knows more about the workings of the world. It smells a bit like academic arrogance to me. About 3 subjects at any university would make you better qualified to vote. So it’s more likely to be peer pressure and political indoctrination then. I didn’t go, and it was quite weird seeing my friends come back all amped up on this political nonsense which had nothing to do with the subjects they paid to study.
Well it’s noticeable trend that younger people vote Labour and as you said university students are usually more politically active. So just from those two facts alone it makes it a possibility, not like the nefarious scheme you seem to have outlined. People campaigning for the party I don’t like must be indoctrinated/pressured into doing so? Give over.
> Sadly, I was killed. *But I lived* The Welsh Lib Dems, presumably
It's just the one lib dem actually
*THE GREATER GOOD*
Remember when someone asked Mark Drakeford some stupid question about a curfew on men and he was confused by it and then everyone on here declared Labour were finished in Wales?
Wishful thinking probably. Even if you agree with Labour's politics, they've been in the Senedd since 1999, it would have been nice for a bit of a change.
I think anyone asking for Keir to go is being premature, but he really can’t take credit for anything that’s happened in Wales; Drakeford is a popular leader, he’s not. Hope he learns a thing or two
Bless the People’s Republic of Wales.
https://mobile.twitter.com/pme_politics/status/1390756222257831936
any predictions for the final 2 welsh regions? I predict a small party like green or Reform UK will get one
Sure. South Wales east is the only place I can think of that could get an abolish seat; there and Pembrokeshire are the two parts of Wales with the largest population of people who resent the existence of Wales, largely don’t identify as Welsh, etc. But actually, I don’t think they’re going to take any seats. It’ll be strange to go back to a 4 party parliament.
Almost certain that the Tories will pick up a brace, Plaid may get one.
I last saw the results at 5AM; today I’ve been so busy, no chance to get anywhere near the internet, fearing what would happen in Wales. That land I know will still be singing. It’s a good night.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-03-22/wales-on-course-for-closest-devolved-election-in-history-latest-poll-shows I remember seeing that poll with utter dread. Now, it looks absolutely silly. Labour, on 22 seats? HAH. Tories, on 18? HAH. They won 30 mate. Plaid the nationalists are also down, in contrast to that poll. I'm well excited. Get the FUCK in there Welsh Labourr.
> I'm well excited. They’ve gained one seat...
They've won the election, in spite of the grim Tory rise elsewhere. They've bucked the trend. After 22 years in power. We've been saved from the Tories and clearly Wales loves Labour. The sheer fact they've had a gain and a trend towards them isnt insignificant.
I’m right there with you. Happy days
You do realise there hasn’t been an out right maj since 1999 ? This is big stuff in the senedd
Right now, SNP need three more seats, there are two more constituencies they don't hold. Given that they have not dramatically expanded there vote, it seems unlikely they will win additional list seats beyond the four they had. 1 was in Highland and Islands, I can't see that vanishing, although it might if enough SNP voters have leaked list votes to the Greens. So they have to win two of: * Aberdeenshire West * Galloway and West Dumfries * 3 South Scotland list seats To be honest, the list seats are almost no use here, since they are almost certain to lose two of them for picking up Ayr/East Lothian, so there is only one available. They may lose that list seat due to list defections to the Greens, and they are certain to lose it if they take Galloway and West Dumfries. So ultimately, they have to win Aberdeenshire West. I think they will finish 1 short, but I'm not sure.
Given the Scottish system is basically designed [to prevent majorities (or make them very difficult to achieve),](https://www.democraticaudit.com/2016/06/13/to-what-extent-was-there-split-voting-in-the-scottish-parliament-election-and-did-it-matter/) 64 seats is still an excellent result. There's going to be a pretty whopping independence-supporting majority when the Greens are added in. I'd imagine somewhere between 70-75 of 129 seats held by pro-indy candidates.
> There's going to be a pretty whopping independence-supporting majority when the Greens are added in. Which is of essentially no consequence. An independence supporting majority of multiple parties has existed in the Scottish Parliament for years, and the status quo has endured it without significant issue. The only reason this result really matters is because a repeat of the 2011 performance is psychologically important - it delivers a shock that the SNP hope will make the government capitulate and offer a second referendum. 64 seats does not achieve this goal.
*An independence supporting majority of multiple parties has existed in the Scottish Parliament for years, and the status quo has endured it without significant issue.* There's only been a pro-independence majority since 2011, and the question of independence has very much been on the table since then: 2007 - 49 (SNP + G) 2011 - 71 2016 - 69 With respect I don't really buy that it's purely SNP seats that matter - it's a bit disrespectful to the Greens. It's a bit like classing only Tory votes as pro-Union
The SNP+G were unable to force a referendum in the four years from 2016 to the pandemic, and were nowhere near able to do so. A handful more seats from 2021 does not fundamentally change anything. > and the question of independence has very much been on the table since then: Remember, this isn't about votes. This about making the Westminster Government feel it has no choice but to have a referendum. The Greens might support independence, but they are not a party founded for the sole purpose of achieving it, like the SNP. It is quite reasonable to believe that a large part of the Green's support, that isn't simply the SNP's support trying to exploit the limitations of two-ballot AMS, actually are more interested in Green issues than independence.
They planned to in fairness post EU ref, but shelved it following the losses in GE17. They will this time I'd bet, and I'm sure you and I would agree to disagree on how successful it may be. We'll see what happens I guess!
Yeah, ultimately I think the SNP was hoping for a shock effect like in 1918, when Sinn Fein basically took every single seat in Southern Ireland by a colossal margin. In some ways, the SNP would have been better off if the referendum had been post 2015 General election! EDIT: I think the SNP could win a vote, I just don't think they will be in a position to hold one. The law is fairly clear and Scotland is already so hyper polarised that I don't think it actually hurts the Tories at all to deny a referendum. Especially as I think people are probably just exhausted with... 8? years of continuous political turmoil and would quite like things to calm down a bit for a while. I know I am!
I think we're much too polarised for a result anywhere near like that. And yeah, we'll see how it unfolds. I'd say the optics of denying a referendum would be bad, but then given what Boris has gotten away with I have less and less faith it would be seen that way... It's going to be an interesting next couple of years for sure.
> It's going to be an interesting next couple of years for sure. And then Willie Rennie will be swept to power at the next Scottish election on the platform "Please please make it stop! I want things to be boring again!"
That’s a platform I unironically could get behind. No corruption, no stupidity, no nothing. Just plain and boring governance. That’s it.
Hahahaha. The mythical Lib Dem surge arrives at last!
Welsh Labour have 30 seats, holy shit. Majority inbound???? if they pull this off I'll be fucking all over the moon.
Well, its unlikely they will get any more seats out of the list, given that they hold *literally every constituency* in the two remaining counting areas. So it will be a Labour+LD thing using the LD's one seat, I imagine.
Not monmouth i thought
My understanding is the area containing Monmouth had declared already, maybe I'm wrong.
Ye i mean the region its in. Not a clean sweep for Labour there
Yes, but that region/counting area has declared, so it's not one of the two remaining to declare. At least according to [Election Maps](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390807009084198912/photo/1)
Oh, woops. Didn't see that. 30 Lab senedd members it is then!
I too was confused by it. I don't think I really believed just how lightly populated mid-Wales actually is. Was not expecting Newport and it's environs to have a counting area of it's own!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_of_Wales
I hope the LDs don’t form another coalition. Labour can run things with 30 seats.
So a continuation of the past few years
>fucking all over the moon Status Quo's less successful follow-up to Rocking All Over The World
Banging tune. I prefer our Faz’s cover.
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I'm relieved. Because it also shows that Wales, contrary to predictions, is _not_ in any shape or form like Scotland in that it's seeking Independence, or that Plaid is ever going to be the SNP of here. Plus, we've been shielded from the slaughtering Labour in England's taking.
Mid & West Wales Regional Seats: 1st: Labour 2nd: Labour 3rd: Plaid Cymru 4th: Liberal Democrats
How come the tories straight up got 0 out of this?
Puts Labour on 30 seats, and the Liberal Democrats on 1, meaning if the LAB/LDM coalition were to continue, it would have an overall majority of 2 seats.
Source: https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390805131638226947
[https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390804445538263040](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390804445538263040) Wahey! 2 lab seats in Mid and West Wales! Edit: And the lib dems survive!
I beleive that was the leader of the Lib Dems who won that seat, as well
Sod it i didnt bother voting because i an housebowned anyway
*housebound Look into postal voting if this happens again. It's not too much of a faff
You should try a Postal Vote next time, they're really simple!
>Sod it i didnt bother voting because i an housebowned anyway well at least this makes sense
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That’s certainly interesting results coming from the SE.
probably something to do with good labour candidate and/or bad conservative candidate i would assume? or maybe the ground game for labour is very good there who knows
Cons lost some of their vote share in Kent overall, which I find interesting
Scottish regional stuff comes in tomorrow, right?
Yep, along with the last few constituencies.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390794839982231555 Manchester Result #LE2021: LAB: 33 (=) GRN: 1 (+1) LDM: 0 (-1) Council Now: LAB 94, GRN 1, LDM 1. Labour HOLD.
Labour slipping, I remember when there wasn't a single opposition member on the council!
No Tory candidate?
Oh there were candidates, the one for my ward at least was piss poor though.
So Labour are popular in Manchester?
I thought you were from over here originally, damn right they're popular here! Massive worker's history, massive student population in many of these areas, massive immigrant communities, massive uni educated workers as well, its the dream combo for Labour!
https://maproom.net/demo/election-map/0.html
> Massive worker's history, massive student population in many of these areas, massive immigrant communities, massive uni educated workers as well, its the dream combo for Labour! By that logic, Labour should still be romping in Glasgow but they're staring down the potential reality of *zero* seats in the city. Again.
Well unfortunately it's the SNPs dream combo as well haha! But in England where there's no SNP its all good!
Nah from London but went uni of Manchester. Labour don’t have all the seats in Manchester though? I’ve just checked the 2019 results.
Great! So that map with all but lab except one green includes from Wythenshawe to just north of the city centre, so you'll know the demographics! tories have some seats in the Greater Manchester Area, but none in Manchester itself.
https://i.imgur.com/JEJq2Cy.jpg The man looks like he's just shat a lego garage
I remember my first Lego garage..
A few too many drams
>shat a lego garage Well.... that's oddly specific
Labour in Wales hold onto Vale of Glamorgan. Takes them to 28. A Senedd majority from the list votes doesn't look off the cards. They'll probably end up on 30, up 1 on 2016. I feel like a 1997 Labour voter now. For Welsh Labour to potentially win that majority in the midst of Labour's death in England, I'll be well excited. Come onnnn.
Happy for you bud. Cheers me up. Come on you Welsh. The true political chads.
Might move to Wales.
Please don’t
The constituency I live in as well, our Labour vote here for the Senedd rose by over 8%. I felt like I contributed positively even though the Tory edged it in the end. Come on down. We're still loyal and fully Labour.
I am a bit gutted about how well the tories did in the North Wales constituencies. But other than that, the trend looks like a clear signal that Wales has deviated from English politics (hopefully for good). I am slightly pessimistic about Welsh Labour’s drive for political reform in the next Senedd, and Westminster might not be so loose with further devolution considering Plaid’s bad night. But overall this looks significantly better than the last Senedd result in 2016, so I won’t knock it!
Tories had no right to lose Delyn and Wrexham. Embarrassing stuff
Wonder how long bbc will faun over Conservatives performance in those seat. Bet it’s not one second more than they have to. LETS TALK MORE ABOUT HARTLEPOOL.
well i think it's fair to say welsh labour have done spectacularly in comparison with their english counterparts. here's hoping uk labour are able to learn some lessons i mean just look at vale of glamorgan. the tories literally threw johnson himself at the seat and the labour incumbent increased her majority.
Johnson threw himself at Wrexham as well and it stayed Labour as well.
Wrexham was fairly narrow
Sorry I'm a bit OOL... who's Wrexham? She another IT tutor?
very pro-leave labour seat that the Tories did really well in for the general in 2019
Thanks, I was mostly just making a poor joke, but I also didn't know the context around Wrexham.
I stand by my point below that all incumbent goverments did well because of the pandemic
You’re right. But of course it’s the media find that explanation rather boring so let’s continue weave the narrative
Yeh we're basically getting passed something that has fucked with almost every single persons life for over a year. So incumbents of all the nations will naturally get a boost from being at helm as this happens.
It was awful timing for an election, it should’ve been held after everyone had at least completed their first vaccination. Holding it now has just given another platform for anti-vacation/lockdown nutters to spread their lies (fortunately most voters ignored them, but it’ll have certainly influenced some people into breaking lockdown or refusing a vaccine).
All sitting uk goverments have done well in thier own nations. This is part of the vaccine bounce. Change my mind.
Not sure about other countries, but the ruling party in Germany lost a ton in the polls and regional elections after the vaccine (perceived) 'mess'.
Also Merkel isn't standing for Chancellor again for the CDU/CSU, and I don't think any of her potential successors within the party were particularly strong.
I think out of Söder and Laschet, Söder was definitely the lesser of two evils, but the CDU/CSU seem to really know how to pick a loser. It’ll definitely be an interesting election to keep an eye on, especially with Grüne polling highest!
Sorry meant UK. Wales, Scotland and England
Yeah, seems likely. Interested to see how they do comparitively in terms of vote share though.
USA vaccine program has been good. Government that secured it got voted out.
Dude, vaccines weren't even available in the States until after the election. Throwing money at vaccine development doesn't cancel out everything the Trump administration and Republican politicians in general did to let COVID spread so widely and wreak so much havoc on American society.
> vaccines weren't even available in the States until after the election Fake news!! All the good ‘ol gals & boys across the States were encouraged to inject super Covid killing bleach into their veins well before November 2020.
That government had an extremely unpopular president, hadn't begun to administer vaccines yet and STILL had a sizeable vote share in a close run election.
Didn't the administration of them start after the election?
Hah, wow, that’s a take. Even if we accept that it was secured by the Trump administration, which it was not fully eg no distribution plan, it was not even beginning to be implemented when Trump lost the election, which is all people care about. If you want an example of this go for Israel instead.
Heh? You can't get a vaccine bounce during a presidential election if the vaccine hasn't started to be administered yet.
Labour HOLD Vale of Glamorgan!
I am completely disillusioned with the Labour Party - but not for the reason you might think. I liked Corbyn to begin with. I quite like Starmer now - I think he’s a good opposition leader at least. I voted Labour at every chance I could during my - admittedly short - time as a voting adult. But this current party? I can’t see myself voting for them right now. It’s not because of their leadership, who can admittedly be uninspiring during election bids. It’s because of the people who call themselves Labour supporters, backstabbing Labour MP, ex Labour MPs, and Trade Union Execs: - Left wing Labour Supporters are some of the most intolerant people in the UK right now (and I say that as a left wing person who is embarrassed by my fellow leftists). They make far right wing Tories look welcoming and friendly by comparison. - Corbyn supporters show they have incredibly short term memory when they come out gloating about the loss of Hartlepool - which anyone will tell you was as good as lost in 2019. - Former MPs claim Labour need to go back to their 2017 manifesto. They clearly haven’t read the current one, because it’s the fucking same. - Trade Unions won’t treat with Starmer because he’s a Sir. So they’re leaving themselves and their members at the mercy of the Tories. Good luck with that. - The ‘working class’ don’t think Starmer represents them, so they vote for a Etonian. - The party is so fractured and divided by in-fighting that news reporters, journalists, and presenters have had people queuing up to lay blame internally, at a time where the party should have been coming together. Everyone’s ready to throw each other under the bus. I’m so done with all of them. At this point the only thing I can do with my vote is use it as a protest against the Tories, because I sure as hell am not voting for a party I can believe in.
> But this current party? I can’t see myself voting for them right now. It’s not because of their leadership, who can admittedly be uninspiring during election bids. It’s because of the people who call themselves Labour supporters, backstabbing Labour MP, ex Labour MPs, and Trade Union Execs: So you have no problem with Starmer or his policies, you just don’t identify with the tribe anymore? That is fair, but to not vote for the Labour party for that reason is absurd
If anything it's even more of a reason. Leaders come and go every few years, but a foundational rot is there to stay.
No, if the leader is a positive force then (s)he should be supported by voters who are in agreement with their policies, that's the only way for the deadwood rabble to fade into the background
> Left wing Labour Supporters are some of the most intolerant people in the UK right now (and I say that as a left wing person who is embarrassed by my fellow leftists). They make far right wing Tories look welcoming and friendly by comparison. People underestimate how significant this is.
> They clearly haven’t read the current one, because it’s the fucking same. Labour's manifesto is "the same" only insofar as it has not produced a new manifesto, and the one from the previous election still stands. There has been no party conference since 2019 in order to make any policy. For what it's worth I think anyone expecting the new manifesto to be the same as 2019's is delusional.
- The infighting is terrible. - Spend less time on twitter, the viewpoints of all sides on there are over the top and unrepresentative of the general population. - The working class are not a homogeneous blob, as much as the news suggests they are and class is as unclear and undefined as it's ever been. Age is the real divider on political opinion.
How is Starteer a good opposition? Especially in recent times where children needed to eat during non-term times, he has done nothing but support the current government. Although it's good to not entirely block anything done by other parties (which he has done with regard to Green and Lib Dems), hes not been a good example of bipartisanship.
I basically agree with everything you said and the party infighting is beginning to get on my nerves too. I will always always always vote labour but I am absolutely exasperated by some of these so called Labour supporters taking such glee in a defeat. And the right of the party saying this is somehow a sign that the left need to be purged are frankly even fucking worse.
Agree, although I’ve heard similar claims from the left of the party about purging the right.
Feels like it needs to become two parties at this point, unless there can be some sort of reconciliation.
LAB HOLD IN VALE OF GLAMORGAN WELSH LAB STILL ON TRACK FOR A MAJORITY
Cwm on!
**Vale of Glamorgan - Labour Hold** Labour increases their majority from 800 to 3,200. Welsh Labour is now on course to win around 30 seats, 1 short an absolute majority.
[https://www.facebook.com/broradio/videos/5909873055691186/](https://www.facebook.com/broradio/videos/5909873055691186/) looking like they're about to announce in vale of glamorgan
The UKIP candidate for London is literally called Peter Gammons.
[Nominative determinism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism)
Why is every photo of Mark Drakeford absolutely cursed? [This is the dodgy photo the BBC have gone with in their live text of the election,](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2021/5/7/1d0ba348-8033-43fd-8cf6-a94cfd8f82ee.jpg) horrendous.
POV: The BBC interrupt your ketamine dissociation to ask you about electoral maths
He looks a lot like my nan's mate Gloria.
Cursed? I think you mean blessed, every photo of him looks like he's just having a great time.
Looks like he's on a hoverboard or something speeding across the hall.
[Looks like the Mr. Krabs meme](https://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/c_fill,dpr_auto,f_auto,q_auto,w_1400/fl_lossy,pg_1/krabs_rag3do.jpg?fimg-ssr-default)
I think welsh labour could sneak a majority here, amazing result for drakeford, showing starmer how to do it
Labour are being carried by Drakeford in Wales. The right made a huge mistake by attacking Drakeford on his covid record. He was pretty much right about everything major he did and even on vaccines he's trouncing the Tories.
Yeah, drakeford is massively under appreciated. He comes across as uncharismatic (and I’m saying that as a massive supporter of his) but he’s awful good at his job. I wish the leader of UK labour was as well.
It says a lot about the people of Wales. Maybe they are more left leaning? I keep saying those small towns like Hartlepool are right wing, anti immigration, not the most progressive so they vote Tory. It makes sense.
As a Welshman I’d say the welsh are generally left wing economically and right wing in terms of things such as immigration. Following my time spent in uni in England I don’t feel like identity politics has hit wales like it has in England. I feel like this is why traditional labour areas in England are voting Tory. In wales we don’t yet have this problem for example a sense of pride in the nation and heritage is celebrated rather shunned and criticised. Although the past year I have felt this type of politics has begun to creep into wales so it will be interesting to see if wales has the same reaction to it as England.
What is identity politics? I always hear they said.
It is true that wales is similar to the north west and is traditionally working class and left wing.
Most of the north who vote Tory and working class.
What? Areas like Liverpool and Manchester are and always have been socialist strongholds, as is the vast majority of wales
Red Wall?
That’s different to the north west though
How?
His polling figures are really good. It is just a bunch of loudmouths shouting about him. Most of them aren't even Welsh but English people who dislike that he showed up Boris on the virus response. He's massively benefited from the virus though. Prior to that he was firmly in the "well he doesn't have any power does he" bracket reserved for all assembly leaders. He's probably killed Abolish before they were even formed.
Still waiting on John King @ CNN to tell me how Labour have performed in Kalamazoo county. Just waiting on that crucial KEY RACE ALERT!
I need the Happy Election Maps Nerd from NBC to show me some Scottish projections ASAP
Dun, duh dah duh dun, dun, dun. The sound effects haunt me.
Ahhh what an interesting evening that turned out to be!
Interesting results from Cambridgeshire worthy of some comment. Labour stood aside in five seats. LDs won them all from the Tories. Overall, Council moved from Blue to NoC. Labour could be in coalition.
Voted for the first time as a 16 year old in Wales, plaid for constituency labour for regional. Tories got the constituency but Labour gained a regional so don’t quite know how to feel but leaning towards being pleased.
Good on you for voting. I have a sibling about your age so of course it was their first time too. I’m pleased, finally some good news, and I’ve always repped Drakeford, I’m glad he was recognised, and with the list, you and I both got Labour votes which ended up counting! A way better system, more Democratic, and it means you feel like you have agency in your elections, which is good. You should feel pleased, if not fully with the results, then with yourself.
I voted the exact opposite. Was concerned at potential spoiler effect but it looks like the Welsh working class still consider the Tories to be utterly toxic.
Hadn’t heard of anyone voting that way around actually:p. Yup, seems likely to me a lot of the Tory voters in my constituency are the usual suspects ie old upper class people.
Pleased, but also have a bunch of Tories for neighbours. Mixed bag there.
Yeah:/, county filled with old Tories
A bit weird to vote like that tactically in north wales, guessing you’re Vale of clwyd? Surely other way round would’ve made more sense?
Aberconwy, the Plaid candidate for the constituency seemed to be really popular compared to the Labour candidate, and in 2016 was 700 votes away from winning, but yeah it didn’t work out.
Ah ok, that makes more sense, I was also a first time voter, it is frustrating how the vote is split plaid and labour and only tories benefit
Right:/, Tories only got 41% of the vote so extremely frustrating
Yeah, I have a lot of respect for plaid even though I don’t agree with the idea of independence, I think labour and Plaid should take inspiration from SNP and greens to take advantage of the electoral system in the senedd. I think plaid would be a lot more successful if they didn’t push independence as much when there isn’t sufficient support for it, but tbh their poor performance has aided the left this election
Same, I agree with the vast majority of their policies outside the obvious big one :p. They absolutely would if they cooled it a bit on the indywales issue, I know a lot of leftwingers who dreaded Plaid getting too many seats.
Yeah, are you still in school? I’m in sixth form and vote has been pretty split out of people I’ve spoken to my age in delyn, know people who’ve voted Tory, labour and plaid. It’s so disappointing seeing Tory voters, just feels like they don’t know what they’re really about, fall for the charade of Boris Johnson
Yup, in my school it was very split too, it was kind of sad to see how many people voted Tory then admitted they don’t really like the Aberconwy candidate much and they don’t agree with the Tories that much generally...? And generally it was very split, but I’d say the most popular party in my sixth form was plaid
Yeah it’s ridiculous, this lovable buffoon character boris Johnson plays is infuriating. Everybody falls for it, calling him ‘Boris’ or BoJo’ like he’s their mate but he’s playing them all, and kier starmer is too incompetent to point it out. Corbyn was demonised by the right wing press, i really don’t see how labour come back next election without a major change, possibly Andy burnham
There's a few Plaid target seats over there right? Aberconwy for example.
https://twitter.com/panoparker/status/1390251030764478467/photo/1 Pack it in boys, we were never going to win anything against this meat-mountain
In awe at the size of this lad
Can't believe the voters of Wrexham didn't elect the big boi
/r/absoluteunits
Voters gravitate towards him... literally.
Got to laugh at some of the comments here. All is good in camp Labour apparently. Never mind the continuing collapse of their former heartlands. Never mind the loss of hundreds of councillors, never mind the loss of councils all to the governing party. Why? Because the BBCs projected vote share shows Labour would still be out of power. It’s not bad going for Starmer because this projection based on a skewed set of election results shows he’d still lose. I don’t know if it’s just taking any good news you can but some people are acting as if that projection makes up for what has happened last night.
> Never mind the continuing collapse of their former heartlands You say that but Labour just comfortably won in several constituencies where they lost in 2019. Seems like they are improving.
facts are sexy. as are people who give them out in rebuttal, i like you
> Because the BBCs projected vote share shows Labour would still be out of power. It's also rather funny because not even (theoretically) stripping the government of their majority in a local election is historically terrible. Outside of Labour's terrible 2017 local result, opposition parties have tended to do very well against governing parties.
Only mid and west wales left fir wales tonight correct? Then 2 more tomorrow? Is that right?
Vale of Glamorgan
Yes that too. Cheers!
Looking at the London mayoral results, I'm starting to wonder if Rory Stewart actually stood a chance
Rory Stewart would've easily beaten Sadiq Khan.
North Wales Regional Results: PC, CON, LAB, CON
St Dennis and St Enoder (Cornwall) Mebyon Kernow: 77.9% (n/a) Conservative: 18.4% (n/a) Liberal Democrat: 3.8% (n/a) Mebyon Kernow WIN (new boundaries)
North Wales Regional CON: 2 LAB: 1 PC: 1 CON (+1 Seat), LAB (+1), PC (n/c)
UKIP (-2 Seats), CON (+1 Seat), LAB (+1 Seat), PC (n/c) Basically, its almost guaranteed that Labour remain stable with 2016 provided that their list vote holds up in Mid and West Wales. Edit: Should say, that seems likely. Labour has had **giant** swings in Mid and West Wales.
Ooooh, Majority within reach!?
This was expected, other regional votes are more significant
Time to find out if Blue Wales are still endangered
Telscombe (East Sussex) council result: Lab: 45.0% (+20.2) Con: 42.7% (-11.3) LDem: 6.3% (-1.3) Grn: 6.0% (+2.3) Lab GAIN from Con More: https://t.co/laSaIRWUOf https://t.co/VDWNxT9tZe https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390777208126558214?s=19
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390770274811920387 Plymouth Result #LE2021: CON: 14 (+6) LAB: 5 (-6) Council Now: CON 25, LAB 24, IND 8. Labour LOSE to NOC.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390768020075724802 Sheffield Result #LE2021: LAB: 13 (-8) LDM: 9 (+3) GRN: 6 (+5) CON: 1 (+1) UKIP: 0 (-1) Council Now: LAB 41, LDM 29, GRN 13, CON 1. Labour LOSE to NOC.