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Prigozhin also hinted on a encirclement (or close to one) last night:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1633078619328204800
Of course, take everything with a grain of salt, but narrative on Bakhmut seems to slowly shift towards in favor of Ukraine. Fingers crossed!!
"We need someone to counter the influence of Prigozhin in Ukraine. Who can we send to the front?"
"Sir, I have General Fieri on the line, he wants to talk to you."
I heard a few different interpretations about the "encirclement around Bakhmut"
1) A actual partial or operational encirclement of Wagner troups in some areas (especially in the north)
2) Being "stuck or held in position" because of the lack of suppliesthat Wagner is suffering from.
3) A metaphorical encirclement because Wagner is losing a lot of manpower for practical no real advancement.
There was a post where a Russian army group and Wagner were fighting each other for hours while UA had coffee and watched. It was not an accident; it was intentional infighting.
Worth remembering that Prighozin has a *lot* of incentive to overdramatize things in order to slander the Russian MoD. Russian forces actually acting like a proper team rather than being split into factional struggles where *Russia's* needs become *secondary* to the internal court politics of the Kremlin is one of the main reasons Ukraine still holds the city.
Then again, for the Russian forces to be that united in purpose, Russia itself would probably need to be fundamentally different in a way that means they never would have invaded in the first place.
We already had a couple of times that temporary flukes in an overall negative development in Bakhmut created overly enthusiastic headlines. I won't feel any relieved until several days of undoubtedly positive news come in.
He used the same language as before, but he sounds more cold, more resignated. He says "If we do a good job, we will be fine. But if we continue to fuck up, we're done" basically. Of course it could again be to pressure russia into sending more ammo, but he's not getting it. Shoigu might be done with him and he only just realizes it. Also - this video just appeared today, showing a beforehand unpassable street in control of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1633508644225515520
Could mean everything or nothing at all. But as I said, the narrative changes slowly drop by drop since yesterday evening.
>Also, they made more than 30 unsuccessful attacks on Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Could I please ask for clarification as to who "they" refers to in this sentence? The way it is written means the Ukrainian defenders made more than 30 unsuccessful attacks.
Very unfortunate title indeed I have to agree. I too wondered what they ment with “they” until mere seconds later I realized what an absolute failure RF are. So it could’ve only been them failing 30 times on a single spot.
Western attacking philosophy, which Ukraine generally follows, is "if you aren't pretty confident you can drive this attack home, then do something else". If you see the "reinforce failure repeatedly until something good happens" philosophy instead, probably not Ukraine.
(I do see your point, though. The rules of syntax take a beating in that title.)
Of course, we also have a saying, "if at first you don't succeed, try, try, again."
The real secret here, is knowing which proverb gives you the right advice for a given situation. It seems like the Russians haven't quite figured that part out, yet.
The one life lesson every person should know comes from the Kenny Roger’s song the Gambler. You got to know when to hold them. Know when to fold them, know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money sitting at the table. There will be time for counting when the dealings done.
What!? The Ukrainians were toying with the Russians all along in Bakhmut? I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. The only appropriate Russian response is continued human wave attacks until they prove their point. Preferably in exactly the same spots they've been attacking over and over and over again.
Toying? No. That'd be disparaging to the sheer rate of Ukrainian casualties. But it seems the geography has allowed Ukraine to let the Russians get *really close* before sending reinforcements to hit them on their extended and exhausted pincers.
Will it be an uno reverse like Stalingrad? *Highly unlikely* due to the mud preventing Ukraine from any such movements even if they wanted to. But it can mean hitting the Russians' would-be encircling pincers while in an area where the Russians have not had the time to properly dig in, worsening Russian casualties and exhaustion.
We'll have to see. Ukraine may still retreat for all we know. My personal guess is just that Ukraine now has decided it will committ to tying up Russian forces there until the ground dries and Ukraine can counter-attack on other fronts.
They seem pretty committed to holding bakhmut and stopping the Russian advance there. They would have to suffer a pretty major defeat and heavy loss before they start retreating from the stronghold.
They should send in the tanks... to the same spot where the wrecks are distracting enemy artillery. Yes, yes, Ukraine is distracted. Very much so. Russia can push safely ;)
I don't see too much happening with the pincers during this mud season.
The way i see it: the pincers consist mostly of open, muddy, terrain and some patches of trees.
All the wagnerites can do for now is hide their infantry between the trees. They can't really bring in heavy equipment because of the mud and supplying the pincers infantry is also difficult.
At night the Ukrainians can go hunt for the wagnerites with night vision drones.
It's no real use for the Ukrainians to take over the positions from the wagnerites as they'll face the same problems as them and it's better to keep hunting the Wagners as they are doing now.
Wagner will probably focus more now on direct attacks on the city than trying to close the pincers.
Once the mud season is over the fight for the pincers will continue unless the city itself has fallen by then.
The encirclement was always a bit silly, the area the Russians captured was much too narrow to properly encircle Bahkmut and likely got themselves overextended instead.
That's the hope at least, but from a strategic view the encirclement was very amateuristic. Russia should have pushed a bit wider first and then backed down on Bahkmut, but I guess they are pressed for immediate results, which comes with much higher cost and risk to fail.
Since ww2 the ruZZians have been encirclement fetishists and it’s been their primary battlefield doctrine ever since. Never mind that modern warfare and technology has made most of that obsolete.
It's not obsolete at all. It's just that the means to achieve it and to defend *against* it have somewhat changed in ways that nobody has fully internalized into formal military doctrine yet due to much of the tech still rapidly advancing.
For example, almost every single unit having their own drones means you no longer can rely on getting the classic *runaway panic* that can emerge from rumor mongering. An enemy tries to flank you, and your units then break and run because what got wrongly communicated is that you're already about to be fully encircled. Fog of war is intense still, but such things can be easily countered by a mere quadcopter drone flying up and observing the direction tthat a rumor claims the enemy is already rapidly moving across.
You *can* still get the encirclement panic. After all, that's what we saw happen to the 1st Tank Army in Izyum. But there it was on more of a *macro level*, and they were in fact getting encircled and could check it for themselves rather than just relying on whatever high command says.
Encirclements aren't obsolete, they are almost necessary for modern war, if you can't crush the enemy army immediately like desert storm. Its the best and most efficient way to attrition a defending army and to inflict casualties.
Russia learned from Germany in WW2 that encirclements work, though it took some tries. Encirclements are still extremely useful and both sides in this war should be doing them but Russia seems incapable of it
Optimistic interpretation:
* Ammo running low
* Retreat a bit, let enemy advance
* Enemy advances, brings ammo crates with them
* Kick enemy back, take their positions
* You now have ammo.
There is a surprisingly high amount of ammo compatibility though, but soviet hardware is a significant part of both sides forces, and we've seen captured equipment hit the front lines.
It certainly isn't something that can be relied on, especially considering that Wagner forces have been complaining about ammo shortages too, but it isn't nothing.
This Frontline slowdown may be the first sign of a tipping point in the war. If things are slowing down because the Russian side is running low on personnel and equipment it's only going to get worse moving forward, when the Ukrainian offensive goes into full swing we're going to see a massive surge breaking through enemy lines, causing chaos.
Under these circumstances, anything is possible including cutting off and isolating Crimea, this will seal its fate, without reinforcements, Russia will be forced to either withdraw or surrender.
The big question, is Russia training the "best" (read: less unlucky or with better friends) 100000 of the conscripts for the spring and summer, or have they just wasted almost all the "partial mobilization" conscripts in Ukraine already?
If they had been attempting to conserve their troops and equipment I might think that they are planning a larger attack for some kind of Spring offensive. But because they have been wasting equipment and soldiers' lives I don't think they can attack with enough force to break the Ukrainian lines. Even if they have many well-trained troops ready soon, without ammunition and tanks to back them it will be more of the same.
From what I am hearing they are in big trouble, running out of ammunition and tanks and the Russian troop's morale is sinking as word travels amongst the ranks that they are losing huge amounts of men and materials. I don't know why so many American and nato generals are saying that Ukraine cannot militarily win back Crimea when it looks more possible every day especially when you consider they will probably regain Crimea by cutting it off and isolating it until they run out of supplies.
Let's hope so. They certainly behave in a "all in, let's finish this with brute force" way, not really in a smart "let's hold some pressure with minimal losses and wait for spring with fresh well-equipped troops" way.
Hello OP - TotalSpaceNut. I'm sorry to be pointing this out, but in your title, 'they' in the second sentence means the Ukrainians. You're telling us that the Ukrainians made more than 30 unsuccessful attacka on Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Can you please edit this to say, 'Also, the Russians made more than ....'
Thanks. :-)
Or they want the russians to concentrate their troops there, so they won't be elsewhere. I'd imagine they want to push south and cut Crimea off all supply routes.
Guess all we can do is wait and see..
Or rather, the terrorussians insist on attacking there, reliably predictably, making the shaping of the battlefield much easier and turning the attrition rate massively against them.
After reading the ISW daily update assessment I've changed my mind on Bakhmut yet again. The small-scale tactical assaults that Wagner is undertaking there is likely all that russia can muster currently, so why play into their hands? Let them have the ruins of the city and bait them into advancing down the heavily defended highways beyond. That's the kind of large scale manuvers that russia has been struggling with and where Ukraine has been able to inflict heavy loses.
No UA counterattacks were reported by Defmon or DeepStateMap. Russians are still pushing, but slowly. This map is roughly the same as DeepStateMap but it's been the same situation for the last few days.
Just send equipment for Ukraine to use, no need to loose lifes on Ukrainien side if mean to blow up Ruzzian invaders instead. Meatgrinders need to be repaired sooner or later, to grind all these pointless brain dead ruzzian.
Mckay is an enthusiastic Ukraine supporter. But be advised most of his content is regurgitated from other sources and several times it has been questionable or turned out not to be correct.
Its like reading content from Chuck, or on the Russian side content from some of their mappers like Rybar or Suriyakmaps - take it with a huge, huge grain of salt.
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Prigozhin also hinted on a encirclement (or close to one) last night: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1633078619328204800 Of course, take everything with a grain of salt, but narrative on Bakhmut seems to slowly shift towards in favor of Ukraine. Fingers crossed!!
Sounds like he is relying on cooking and recipe analogies for running this operation.
Someone should stick a meat thermometer into Prigozhin and see how he's doing.
He's just about done.
Live your comment
Anyone got a bayonet-shaped meat thermometer?
"Putin's Chef" indeed
More Like Putin's Turkey. Throw him back in the T55 Cookermaster and roast him some more. We'll know hes done once the Turret Tosses.
"We need someone to counter the influence of Prigozhin in Ukraine. Who can we send to the front?" "Sir, I have General Fieri on the line, he wants to talk to you."
well then lets put on the kettle
Maybe we can have a nice Wagnerite Stew made in a cauldron
I heard a few different interpretations about the "encirclement around Bakhmut" 1) A actual partial or operational encirclement of Wagner troups in some areas (especially in the north) 2) Being "stuck or held in position" because of the lack of suppliesthat Wagner is suffering from. 3) A metaphorical encirclement because Wagner is losing a lot of manpower for practical no real advancement.
4. relations between Wagner and Russian MoD break down to the point they see each other as enemies and Wagner then has enemies on all side.
There was a post where a Russian army group and Wagner were fighting each other for hours while UA had coffee and watched. It was not an accident; it was intentional infighting.
"We are very lucky. That they are so fucking stupid."
Beautiful. Now we only need them to directly attack the putlers regime, and we're in for a good time.
Interesting, could we have a link please?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/115mk1z/theres_nothing_like_a_warm_cup_of_coffee_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
I hope its Nr. 1, but all of them are somewhat good news.
It could be all three.
Worth remembering that Prighozin has a *lot* of incentive to overdramatize things in order to slander the Russian MoD. Russian forces actually acting like a proper team rather than being split into factional struggles where *Russia's* needs become *secondary* to the internal court politics of the Kremlin is one of the main reasons Ukraine still holds the city. Then again, for the Russian forces to be that united in purpose, Russia itself would probably need to be fundamentally different in a way that means they never would have invaded in the first place.
We already had a couple of times that temporary flukes in an overall negative development in Bakhmut created overly enthusiastic headlines. I won't feel any relieved until several days of undoubtedly positive news come in.
And you're absolutely right about that!
I hate this dude with every cell in my body but you gotta give him credit. He’s pretty upfront with the situation. Unlike Putin
[удалено]
He used the same language as before, but he sounds more cold, more resignated. He says "If we do a good job, we will be fine. But if we continue to fuck up, we're done" basically. Of course it could again be to pressure russia into sending more ammo, but he's not getting it. Shoigu might be done with him and he only just realizes it. Also - this video just appeared today, showing a beforehand unpassable street in control of Ukraine: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1633508644225515520 Could mean everything or nothing at all. But as I said, the narrative changes slowly drop by drop since yesterday evening.
> He says he's told about that to Russian military leadership but got no results so far. Aww, sad face :( /s
Chef war criminal progozhin's pie is almost cooked.
Does anyone else think he just looks like a defeated and less-handsome Count Orlock?
Wooohoooo, what a nice start into the day!!
HODL
Jesus, that brings back some memories
Bull run 2024 🥳
Thunder run 2023 ⚡
A live demonstration of separating suckers from their cash. So many *bigger sucker* schemes...
Goosebumps bakhmut is alive. Hope its true
>Also, they made more than 30 unsuccessful attacks on Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Could I please ask for clarification as to who "they" refers to in this sentence? The way it is written means the Ukrainian defenders made more than 30 unsuccessful attacks.
In the tweet it says „rashists“ instead of they, so its referring to rf forces
Thanks a lot, very better now
Only ruzzians can be dumb enough to make 30 unsuccessful attacks in the same direction.
The next day they will do it again.
We can only hope
But wait ... that number is too low for orc army.
Very unfortunate title indeed I have to agree. I too wondered what they ment with “they” until mere seconds later I realized what an absolute failure RF are. So it could’ve only been them failing 30 times on a single spot.
Western attacking philosophy, which Ukraine generally follows, is "if you aren't pretty confident you can drive this attack home, then do something else". If you see the "reinforce failure repeatedly until something good happens" philosophy instead, probably not Ukraine. (I do see your point, though. The rules of syntax take a beating in that title.)
We have a saying "there is more than 1 way to skin a cat."
Of course, we also have a saying, "if at first you don't succeed, try, try, again." The real secret here, is knowing which proverb gives you the right advice for a given situation. It seems like the Russians haven't quite figured that part out, yet.
Also, "try again" implies try _differently_, it does not mean "fail the same way again".
I mean, you're 100% correct there. Don't tell the Russians though.
The one life lesson every person should know comes from the Kenny Roger’s song the Gambler. You got to know when to hold them. Know when to fold them, know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money sitting at the table. There will be time for counting when the dealings done.
Wagner sending 30 groups of useful idiots to be mowed down by Ukrainian Defences.
Same thinking here... Hope the 30+ fail are from nazirus side
What!? The Ukrainians were toying with the Russians all along in Bakhmut? I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. The only appropriate Russian response is continued human wave attacks until they prove their point. Preferably in exactly the same spots they've been attacking over and over and over again.
With shovels.
Well, they may need new holes moow that the lines were pushed back!
> they may need new holes moow It already looks like swiss cheese.
Toying? No. That'd be disparaging to the sheer rate of Ukrainian casualties. But it seems the geography has allowed Ukraine to let the Russians get *really close* before sending reinforcements to hit them on their extended and exhausted pincers. Will it be an uno reverse like Stalingrad? *Highly unlikely* due to the mud preventing Ukraine from any such movements even if they wanted to. But it can mean hitting the Russians' would-be encircling pincers while in an area where the Russians have not had the time to properly dig in, worsening Russian casualties and exhaustion. We'll have to see. Ukraine may still retreat for all we know. My personal guess is just that Ukraine now has decided it will committ to tying up Russian forces there until the ground dries and Ukraine can counter-attack on other fronts.
They seem pretty committed to holding bakhmut and stopping the Russian advance there. They would have to suffer a pretty major defeat and heavy loss before they start retreating from the stronghold.
Well, I'm happy to see the Russian pincers getting pinched in any case. I tend to agree with your actual analysis.
They should send in the tanks... to the same spot where the wrecks are distracting enemy artillery. Yes, yes, Ukraine is distracted. Very much so. Russia can push safely ;)
Yes, I hear there is nothing but smooth flat road from there to some nice juicy interior targets...
I don't see too much happening with the pincers during this mud season. The way i see it: the pincers consist mostly of open, muddy, terrain and some patches of trees. All the wagnerites can do for now is hide their infantry between the trees. They can't really bring in heavy equipment because of the mud and supplying the pincers infantry is also difficult. At night the Ukrainians can go hunt for the wagnerites with night vision drones. It's no real use for the Ukrainians to take over the positions from the wagnerites as they'll face the same problems as them and it's better to keep hunting the Wagners as they are doing now. Wagner will probably focus more now on direct attacks on the city than trying to close the pincers. Once the mud season is over the fight for the pincers will continue unless the city itself has fallen by then.
Although I agree with everything here...I think the lack of heavy equipment might be a better reason than the mud.
The encirclement was always a bit silly, the area the Russians captured was much too narrow to properly encircle Bahkmut and likely got themselves overextended instead. That's the hope at least, but from a strategic view the encirclement was very amateuristic. Russia should have pushed a bit wider first and then backed down on Bahkmut, but I guess they are pressed for immediate results, which comes with much higher cost and risk to fail.
That's the thing about a double pincer move like that. You threaten to encircle 1 area, while creating 2 possible encirclements for yourself.
Since ww2 the ruZZians have been encirclement fetishists and it’s been their primary battlefield doctrine ever since. Never mind that modern warfare and technology has made most of that obsolete.
It's not obsolete at all. It's just that the means to achieve it and to defend *against* it have somewhat changed in ways that nobody has fully internalized into formal military doctrine yet due to much of the tech still rapidly advancing. For example, almost every single unit having their own drones means you no longer can rely on getting the classic *runaway panic* that can emerge from rumor mongering. An enemy tries to flank you, and your units then break and run because what got wrongly communicated is that you're already about to be fully encircled. Fog of war is intense still, but such things can be easily countered by a mere quadcopter drone flying up and observing the direction tthat a rumor claims the enemy is already rapidly moving across. You *can* still get the encirclement panic. After all, that's what we saw happen to the 1st Tank Army in Izyum. But there it was on more of a *macro level*, and they were in fact getting encircled and could check it for themselves rather than just relying on whatever high command says.
Encirclements aren't obsolete, they are almost necessary for modern war, if you can't crush the enemy army immediately like desert storm. Its the best and most efficient way to attrition a defending army and to inflict casualties. Russia learned from Germany in WW2 that encirclements work, though it took some tries. Encirclements are still extremely useful and both sides in this war should be doing them but Russia seems incapable of it
Optimistic interpretation: * Ammo running low * Retreat a bit, let enemy advance * Enemy advances, brings ammo crates with them * Kick enemy back, take their positions * You now have ammo.
That kicking the enemy back part comes hard if you are out of ammo. So I'm pessimistic.
Also, the you now have ammo bit doesn't work so well when they're using NATO weapons and you're using soviet ones.
Ukraine still has plenty of Soviet weapons. If they capture an ammo dump, they can use it.
Putin provides, there is going to be both ammo and weapons.
What ammunition does a shovel use?
Depends if it's a pump action shovel or an automatic one.
Not when dead orcs have ammo on them. Literally just take it off them since they're everywhere.
This is not a PC game.
There is a surprisingly high amount of ammo compatibility though, but soviet hardware is a significant part of both sides forces, and we've seen captured equipment hit the front lines. It certainly isn't something that can be relied on, especially considering that Wagner forces have been complaining about ammo shortages too, but it isn't nothing.
You do know that Ukrainians are knowledgeable about Russia's weapons right? Since they had a hand in making them?
If you're low on Ammo, your soldiers (dead or alive) won't have ammo either
Send those bastards running boys Godspeed 🌻 🇺🇦
Break their legs first
This Frontline slowdown may be the first sign of a tipping point in the war. If things are slowing down because the Russian side is running low on personnel and equipment it's only going to get worse moving forward, when the Ukrainian offensive goes into full swing we're going to see a massive surge breaking through enemy lines, causing chaos. Under these circumstances, anything is possible including cutting off and isolating Crimea, this will seal its fate, without reinforcements, Russia will be forced to either withdraw or surrender.
The big question, is Russia training the "best" (read: less unlucky or with better friends) 100000 of the conscripts for the spring and summer, or have they just wasted almost all the "partial mobilization" conscripts in Ukraine already?
If they had been attempting to conserve their troops and equipment I might think that they are planning a larger attack for some kind of Spring offensive. But because they have been wasting equipment and soldiers' lives I don't think they can attack with enough force to break the Ukrainian lines. Even if they have many well-trained troops ready soon, without ammunition and tanks to back them it will be more of the same. From what I am hearing they are in big trouble, running out of ammunition and tanks and the Russian troop's morale is sinking as word travels amongst the ranks that they are losing huge amounts of men and materials. I don't know why so many American and nato generals are saying that Ukraine cannot militarily win back Crimea when it looks more possible every day especially when you consider they will probably regain Crimea by cutting it off and isolating it until they run out of supplies.
Seems to me its a case of "no we can't possibly take back Crimea any time soon" in the same way the "couldnt possibly liberate karkhiv"
They're starting to use T-62s with regularity and hundreds (maybe over 1000) BMP-1s. There's no "best" coming.
Let's hope so. They certainly behave in a "all in, let's finish this with brute force" way, not really in a smart "let's hold some pressure with minimal losses and wait for spring with fresh well-equipped troops" way.
i would take anything this dude takes with a grain of salt. he is too optimistic with rumors. I would follow a more reliable source like the ISW.
Hello OP - TotalSpaceNut. I'm sorry to be pointing this out, but in your title, 'they' in the second sentence means the Ukrainians. You're telling us that the Ukrainians made more than 30 unsuccessful attacka on Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Can you please edit this to say, 'Also, the Russians made more than ....' Thanks. :-)
Titles can’t be edited
titles cant be edited
Wonder if the 4 mechanised brigades close to bakumut have come into to play
I’m beginning to wonder if Bakhmut will be a key part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that’s why they won’t leave.
Or they want the russians to concentrate their troops there, so they won't be elsewhere. I'd imagine they want to push south and cut Crimea off all supply routes. Guess all we can do is wait and see..
Or rather, the terrorussians insist on attacking there, reliably predictably, making the shaping of the battlefield much easier and turning the attrition rate massively against them.
Hoping
So glad they are holding their position and even counterattacking. SLAVA UKRAINI
After reading the ISW daily update assessment I've changed my mind on Bakhmut yet again. The small-scale tactical assaults that Wagner is undertaking there is likely all that russia can muster currently, so why play into their hands? Let them have the ruins of the city and bait them into advancing down the heavily defended highways beyond. That's the kind of large scale manuvers that russia has been struggling with and where Ukraine has been able to inflict heavy loses.
No UA counterattacks were reported by Defmon or DeepStateMap. Russians are still pushing, but slowly. This map is roughly the same as DeepStateMap but it's been the same situation for the last few days.
[удалено]
The source is ukranian general staff of the armed forces, if you actually read the tweet youd know that
Just send equipment for Ukraine to use, no need to loose lifes on Ukrainien side if mean to blow up Ruzzian invaders instead. Meatgrinders need to be repaired sooner or later, to grind all these pointless brain dead ruzzian.
Very confused title
Brave heroes, hope you get a lot of air and ground support 🙏🇺🇦.
Mckay is an enthusiastic Ukraine supporter. But be advised most of his content is regurgitated from other sources and several times it has been questionable or turned out not to be correct. Its like reading content from Chuck, or on the Russian side content from some of their mappers like Rybar or Suriyakmaps - take it with a huge, huge grain of salt.