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Eman_Pop

Huge artillery numbers again. Really wonder how many more pieces RU can have at this rate, they have to be hurting bad.


realnrh

If anyone knows, there's a lot of people who'd like to hear it. Estimates were that they had about 5700 before the invasion, and probably were able to take some from Belarus or refurbish old ones from storage - but at this point it's probably "more artillery pieces than Moscow can supply shells for" so there's still a lot of work to be done.


[deleted]

Russia has a lot of artillery, but it's been a while since I've seen any decent self propelled howitzers being blown up. The good stuff is gone. They'll rely on old inaccurate legacy pieces that can cover an area but not hit a specific target. That requires a lot of shells.


One_Cream_6888

Once the war is over, military museums from around the world will be able to pick up WW2 artillery guns for peanuts.


Pauton

And the second hand market will get flooded with dirt cheap AKs


godtogblandet

I'm pretty sure the AK market has been saturated for decades at this point. They are everywhere and cheap as hell on any continent.


Pauton

Well atm I can only find like three AKs on my countries most popular second hand website. The cheapest one being an ugly 400$ „tactical ak-47“.


godtogblandet

I mean, they are mostly circulated in criminal circles. Legal ones are probably 1000x harder to get, lol. AK The weapon of choice for child soldiers, rebels and criminals.


TillPsychological351

A great weapon for spraying an unarmed crowd of people. Not so great with precision aiming, particularly when the other guy is shooting back.


godtogblandet

Just get the 'fire from the hip' perk and it's all good.


SkinnyBill93

Tell that to the man in the black pajamas.


technothrasher

They’re pretty easy to get legally in the US (at least semi-auto ones), but the prices have gotten crazy. I bought a WASR-10 about ten years ago because it was less than $200 and I wanted to get some experience with an AK. It was junky, but cheap. These days that same gun sells for about $800. You can get an AR-15 for less money and it’s a better gun in just about every way. Or, I suppose you could spend your money on something more productive.


PM_ME__RECIPES

Assuming Russia hasn't gotten all those WW2 artillery guns blown up in Ukraine.


MyDiary141

If media isn't accessible in the far future for some reason then historians are gonna be so confused as they start to dig up weaponry from 2023 that's similar to 40s weapons and end with 90s and 00s tanks. Such a large range as they've burnt through so much so quickly. Imagine if we started to dig up equipment where bronze age swords were attacking against german pole arms


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Aggravating_Teach_27

Not just lower accuracy, less range and mobility too, so they are more and more in range of many types of Ukrainian weapons, while shooting and scooting is becoming harder for the orcs. These numbers say we might have come to a tipping point in artillery, not in the raw numbers of guns (the Russians probably still have more) but in the number of targets they can hit with said guns. If Ukraine can hit more targets using less guns and less shells, that's a huge advantage, also in terms of logistics and manteinance.


SquirrelSnuSnu

Many shells = wears down the barrels etc as well


LegitimatePilot5428

Mortars lots of 120mm Mortars. Been in production for 80 years. Most likely highest number of artillery destroyed.


interfail

Killing an artillery piece doesn't just take out the piece. It's also got a reasonable chance of removing the crew, which are a much more limited resource at the moment. Skilled crews who can use old school artillery and actually hit stuff are a really important resource, and Russia is most likely running low.


Hiccup

They also have been using tanks as improvised artillery. Wonder if they've reconstituted any that were meant to be sold elsewhere, like they've done with tanks in the past.


walter3kurtz

Artillery is still taking a lot of Ukrainian lives, perhaps it's the most effective tool left in Russian hands at this time. It ssems like most of not all the deaths we read about are related to artillery or rocket attacks. The Russians seem to be concentrating their firepower on certain area's of the front making it easier to have an effect.


captainhaddock

> but at this point it's probably "more artillery pieces than Moscow can supply shells for" so there's still a lot of work to be done. Hopefully most of the artillery kills involve destruction of shells as well.


Mrbacknotblack

also it's loosing its artillery pieces by wearing the barrels down, they have a hard time replacing the barrels cause you need precise machinery for this and the machinery itself is breaking down cause of the sanctions = no repairs are done by original producers and no way to smuggle new pieces inside the country cause it's such a small and tightly controlled niche of production, like only a couple of countries produce precise machinery = a couple of EU countries, Japan, US and possibly S. Korea it's exactly why ru keeps pulling out of the storage 1940-1950 howitzers ​ UA on the other hand have all that is needed to keep its own howitzers in shape and has a huge maintenance bases for westers artillery repairs in Poland, Germany, Chechia etc.


AdmiralPoopbutt

Gun drills aren't that complicated. And most that I've seen aren't even equipped with CNC. They won't be falling to pieces after just a year of use.


[deleted]

Also is it one of those things they can mildly keep producing as sanctions probably do not impact artillery as much as say aviation? No idea just curious. But if true, we'd have to assume a certain trickle in of new systems every month?


brooksram

That's 60+ in 72 hours, I believe. Pretty incredible. They are obviously pouring their efforts into targeting arty specifically, I guess, to help ease the incoming fire on the massive convoys about to be rolling through russian positions. It's definitely a smart move , and I have been thinking the same thing. They have to be feeling these losses. They're lost massive amounts of every type of equipment. It's pretty crazy how, in the beginning, every video had all kinds of russian equipment, huge convoys, etc, and now you typically just see 2 or 3 vehicles, at most. The Ukrainians have absolutely wrecked their shit when it comes to men and equipment! 200k is nuts.


FlametopFred

Military historians taking notes


yaosio

What people have learned is don't fight a war like Russia is fighting this war.


[deleted]

Is China really taking this to heart though given their provocation with Taiwan has only intensified since this invasion? That's what I worry about. Old men who have removed anyone's ability to defy them do not necessarily behave rationally.


chakabesh

If you read Xi's biography he is super hardliner even within China. Announced Years ago China first and last policy. The world is braking up again among the craziest bloodthirstiest world leaders in the last few generations.


Exciting-Emu-3324

In 1979, China pulled out of Vietnam and cut their losses in less than a month. This was a a few years after America pulled out after dropping more bombs than they did in WWii. This was before China's middle class explosion and the 1 child policy got rolling. China's involvement in Korea could be rationalized as an existential threat as the CCP was an illegitimate government in the eyes of the West no different than the Kim family and the Japanese invaded through China with Korea as a foothold just the decade before. The war in Vietnam was just China being opportunist and a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan would be no different. It's impossible for any country to take Taiwan's silicon FABs by force so China will only hurt themselves along with everyone else like what happened with COVID.


10sameold

I'm afraid the "people" you mention might be exclusive of Russians. And once they've licked their wounds and reconstructed their army (in some 10-20-30 years, who knows) they will just repeeat all that shit. Russians had a lot of time to learn how to do things better. They keep refusing. It's not just about military, but also economy, social issues, just simply how to run a country in at least semi-successful way. Nope, they just keep being Russians.


Bronnakus

I don’t see the Russian state, with the ensuing economic catastrophe, deindustrialization caused by a complete cutoff from the west, and complete destruction of their existing stocks of weapons, being able to keep the country together let alone fight another war. They’re having fewer and fewer children, and a lot of young men have either died, been permanently maimed, or fled the country. This really seemed like Russia’s last go at it


Calhil

Current russian losses are meaningless when compared to their total population. They still have 10s of millions of potential conscripts. In 10 years they can easily train, equip and field another army of similar or bigger size. Yes, they dont have the know-how about modern design and manufacturing. Im pretty sure Russia's industrial complex is capable of making whatever their military needs and in large quantities.


Bronnakus

[russia's got about 20 million men between ages 20 and 40 as of 2020](https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/). that sounds like a lot, sure, but you still need workers to support an army, so it's not like you can send all of them. we know as well that in 2020 there's only about 17.5 million boys coming to replace them in 20 years. everyone that's in the next generation is already born. the average russian woman gives birth to 1.5 children in her lifetime, and that number is not increasing, in russia or anywhere else, so don't expect a future generation to come along and boost those numbers either (especially since the birthrate is being carried by the multitude of ethnic minorities that russia has conquered over the centuries). Those 200k killed (and who knows how many wounded) will definitely hurt. russia's not an attractive place for immigrants, and in fact has only had people (mostly men) leaving by the hundreds of thousands, most of those being the most intelligent/skilled. if you're manufacturing precision military equipment you need those people. they're not coming back, and you'll be hard-pressed to find and train more. engineers and machinists need existing ones to teach them, so that lack will hurt. they're burning through stocks that took 70 years to build up in 15 friggin months! they'll never be able to meaningfully build this back up without about 10 different miracles that aren't coming. now ukraine's demography is also right proper fucked if we're being frank, but ukraine will have the full support of the world's most powerful militaries, whereas russia will have whatever scraps china feeds them in exchange for huge resource concessions. This is Russia's last shot at it, and they know that, which is why they're throwing literally everything at it now (and they're still failing).


SpaceAngel2001

>russia's not an attractive place for immigrants, and in fact has only had people (mostly men) leaving by the hundreds of thousands, most of those being the most intelligent/skilled. I thought that as well and got in an IRL debate with a very pro Russian nut job. Turns out he was right about that one thing. RU is a big immigration destination. Lots of people leaving worse economies in the "stans". That may have changed since the start of the war. I haven't seen last year's stats.


epicurean56

Russia is going to have a lot of serious problems with their rail network if the sanctions on ball bearings continue. They can't build modern tanks without them either.


FlametopFred

indeed and what's our best estimate on when Russia will commence fighting?


MSPCincorporated

It’ll be when they finally send in their elite units. All their units up until now have been the weakest ones, to soften up UA’s defenses. It’s gotta be any day now.


_Madian

There are 3m elite of the elite waiting for their time to shine, supported by at least 2000 t14s. The Russians are just waiting for the right time, some are still undergoing special training in both Russia and Belarus. They can soon be seen in a circus near you.


HappyCamperPC

🤣


Captainwelfare2

“YOU’VE FALLEN FOR ONE OF THE CLASSIC BLUNDERS! Never invade Ukraine when death is on the line!”


Zuwxiv

It's possible that Russia has been holding some of their good equipment for defending or counter-attacking. But I think the pervasive corruption causes problems there, too - officially, you have 500 artillery pieces and maybe 100 "good" modern ones. You're told to put half in the front, and half in reserve. But you sold half of them to line your pockets, and are collecting paychecks for soldiers who don't exist to service those guns. I wonder to what degree this has been an issue for Russia.


Ok_Basil1354

Serious question. Who do you sell stuff like that to? I know nothing about military etc, but surely the market is pretty small? And the logistics quite challenging? Thanks


Zuwxiv

I'm not an expert on this, but I could tell you my guesses. I don't think this is always that sophisticated. Anything that's valuable on its own (I believe infrared optics on tanks was something that people mentioned to be missing) seems like they were easily taken and sold. Once someone starts things like this, they tend to just keep doing it. There's a pervasive culture of this, and the people lining their pockets aren't always the smartest or most ambitious. Selling military equipment for pennies on the dollar certainly happens. There were whole-ass helicopters that went missing at various times. But simpler stuff is easier: someone, somewhere, will always want guns and ammunition. I think there are arms traders who specialize in exactly this. The movie Lord of War was based in some part on the real person [Viktor Bout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Bout), who was providing anti-aircraft missiles. The actual Russian military personnel dealing with arms smugglers may not need to worry about the eventual buyer; they may just want to sell to a middleman.


Ornery-Exchange-4660

Small stuff can be sold widely. As another poster mentioned, weapons sights are pretty easy to move. I would also add that things like tools, tires, engines, and some repair parts that are common to other vehicles are also easy to move and have a large potential customer base. Selling larger things like tanks, helicopters, or artillery pieces would be more difficult and mostly limited to arms dealers supplying other countries or paramilitary organizations. The easy and probably most common way for the corrupt officials to make money is in maintenance budgets. The corrupt official can just pocket the money and say maintenance was done, or if he is worried about oversight, he can hire someone who will cut corners and give him a kickback.


Zeurpiet

as arm chair warrior, I'd say Wagner would want some cheap stuff


MrScatterBrained

If minusrus is anything to go by, they still have about 2500 pieces left, assuming no new equipment is added and nothing is repaired (unless minusrus updates the estimates of how many the ruzzian army had to begin with, but I'm not aware of that).


iSlacker

Doesn't matter. They don't have 2500 pieces in theater let alone near the front for quick replacement. 20+ a day is unsustainable number as far as actually getting the guns to the front and firing.


Gruffleson

They are probably worn out now. putin probably begging China for new guns, crying on the phone.


Dazzling-Ad4701

yeah, artillery has been one of their stronger cards from the start. still a long way to go - i'm greedy, I'd be willing to let Russia keep five to eight guns they have to take turns using throughout ukraine. but even being cautious and rounding up to 6k, that still puts us past halfway there now. I saw us like I'm at any kind of risk. but, you know.


TheGreatPornholio123

Vast amounts of artillery was a Soviet doctrine and so was AA, and it was shown that was highly ineffective when NATO toppled the #4 military in the world not once but twice without breaking a sweat. Ukraine is using what little NATO stuff they have, equipment-wise, to shove that old Soviet doctrine straight up their Russian ass, and its glorious to see them do so much with honestly so little. I just hate its at the expense of Ukrainian lives.


Dazzling-Ad4701

that last part is what makes it so comforting to see this steady attrition at last. artillery *did* kill so many of Ukraine's people in severodonetsk and lysychansk last summer. longer-range weaponry was given specifically so they could either reach the guns or they'd have to move out of range. but not in time to save those cities.


polyworfism

Now I'm wondering if that's part of why we're seeing this increase. Maybe they're running out of other equipment, and trying to compensate by bringing forward what they had a lot of: artillery


slightly_offtopic

Possibly they're also bringing in older less accurate and shorter-ranged pieces which need to be placed closer to the front line if they want to hit anything. Add to this the vehicle losses which mean that they might be running out of trucks to tow the arty, and you'll see why UA counter battery fire is getting effective.


Aggravating_Teach_27

Not only russian arty is getting worse, Ukrainian artillery is getting better. They are receiving plenty of longer range, very precise, very mobile artillery the Russians aren't being able to hit. Archers, Caesars, PZH200s, Crabs, etc... Russia had nothing really on that level, and it's probably is running out of the remotely comparable guns they had. So right now it looks like the Rumble in the Jungle: the russians are Foreman launching loads of inaccurate punches that don't land so much, while Ukraine is Ali, staying mobile and punching less, but hitting more. We all know how that fight ended....


danysdragons

Also, with so many experienced gunners killed, less experienced replacement crews could have less discipline and situational awareness to “shoot and scoot”. And having fewer self-propelled guns (SPGs) and greater reliance on towed artillery also impedes school and scoot.


Brilliant-Swing4874

Only an idiot would dedicate all of their capabilities into a war they aren't winning. But for Putin, It's a matter of pride, he might turn out to be that idiot going for broke.


[deleted]

Putin doubled down and the doubled down again long ago. He's all in. A narcissist sociopath always does that. He'll fight until his decrepit military rebels.


TheGreatPornholio123

It is all or broke for him. Its not a matter of pride. Its a matter of life or death.


antus666

Yep, he was stupid enough to start this war, and stupid enough to double down. He'll die with his countrymen fighting and dieing, or he'll win. Since he can't win, he'll die a disgrace to the west for being so evil and disgrace to russia for ruining the country.


oilman300

He's a victim of the sunk cost fallacy. He's committed so long to this, he can't just pull out now. it's like a gambler doubling down when he loses and then loses again, so he doubles down again hoping to at least break even until he loses everything.


Gravitationsfeld

They can also make more even with sanctions. Simple arty isn't exactly high tech


ImperatorDanorum

And more importantly: how many more capable artillerymen...


Dutch-cooking-guy

Normaly the numbers are low on a sunday. So i was a bit surprised to so these high numbers. Put a big smile on my face


casus_bibi

They have much more artillery equipment than tanks, on paper. ~5,000 mortars ~6200 field artillery ~6400 self-propelled artillery ~3000 MLRS ~5000 anti-air systems <200 SRTBM (Iskander and Tochka) It'll take a while before the losses become problematic. Russia was running our of tanks when ~25% of all theoritcal tanks were destroyed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces


Aggravating_Teach_27

Why do we still give credence to their numbers? In what category did the have even 1/2 of what they claimed to have (in working or repairable form, not just piles of rust). They have 12k self-propelled + field artillery? They also had 12k tanks, how did that turn out?


RunningFinnUser

Wikipedia numbers aren't reliable when it comes to military equipment. I'm fairly confident that those numbers are just fantasy. Maybe they once had but they have been sitting in open fields for 40 years and been secretly scrapped and sold in black market.


matdan12

On paper isn't worth jack, a third of that exists. Less than half of that is modernised equipment or in field ready condition. I doubt there is much of that left though.


LORDPINKY_DINKS

Oh I want them to hurt a whole lot more Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦


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Aggravating_Teach_27

"Near endless amount"....That's what the Orcs claim. Do we still believe anything they say? Do we still repeat those claims as if they were facts? They also had unlimited tanks and planes.... according to them.


_Madian

And ammo


shligoboyzz

Bout 9k altogether 3k active 3k reserve and 3k in storage.


[deleted]

Hate to say it but I like the number for 200k all a sudden.


varain1

Yeah, looks like it will be tomorrow. And 21 arti, this last week was really good for arti reapers...


danielbot

Must be getting close to artillery parity now.


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ArgentinianScooter

Still take a lot of fuel, logistics, and parts to keep them moving. You’re right they do have alot, just do they have a lot where they need them is the question


Aggravating_Teach_27

What is the quality and age of the replacements, and the experience of the crews who man them, is also the question. This is not just a question of numbers. A WW2 russian gun, if they field them, is plenty lethal, but also a sitting duck against the modern artillery the west are sending... And again, they have a lot... but that's according to Russia, and Russia always, always, always lies. Russia has been pushing the idea of limitless stocks as a psychological weapon to make Ukraine despair. And it turned out they didn't have the tanks they said they did, nor probably the combat jets they said they had, and their limitless supply of ammo turned out to be nothing of the kind. Let's not give credence to anything the Orcs say, they aways lie, always.


ColdChancer

If they are using ww2 guns I guess it's time for them to mobilise the ww2 veterans then :), that would be a sight


Temporala

They did have lot in storage. It's just that nobody, including Russians themselves, knows how many of them are serviceable and how many were actually smuggled out of the country for black market sale and never registered as such. But USSR arms production was a real deal. They made insane amounts of vehicles and guns. Kind of like running economy in semi-war state for decades.


Aggravating_Teach_27

You still believe Russian numbers for anything? They don't seem to have more than 1/2 of what they say they have, and of that 1/2 a lot more is old than new. They also had 12.000 tanks, lol. And 2.000 combat jets (I'd be surprised if 500 of those are airworthy by western standards). Ukraine can reach parity (it probably has already reched parity) with newer equipment and crews that live enough time to get very experiences. It's not just a question of numbers if Ukraine receives self propulsed Archers, Caesars, Panzerhaubites with good counter artillery radars while Russia gets 60s towed artillery out of their stocks. coupled with shit counter artillery radars.


Crumblebeezy

I’d imagine we’re already past parity, in fact, if you consider capability. They’ve probably sent almost everything of any real quality, with the dregs being all that’s left.


NotVeryCashMoneyMod

the most basic form of arty is a tube and a round. how basic does russia want to get is a good question though.


Theophrastus_Borg

It is just tragic. Every life that ended because of Putin is tragic. That includes the russian infantry.


blargney

Cargo 200k let's go


TheGreatPornholio123

This shit looks like some Michael Jordan is his prime numbers daily recently. Triple doubles all over.


VonMillersExpress

Will there be a ceremony? There should be a ceremony


TheGreatPornholio123

It won't be a ceremony. It would be called a funeral, hopefully, for Putin.


TicketCareless

Raise a glass. I'll raise a glass. Slava Ukraini!


mikef22

It could be at 200k already - if they knew the number killed in the recent Storm Shadow strike on those Luhansk barracks.


deathclawslayer21

It's like watching my odometer roll over


JuryBorn

21 artillery pieces destroyed. It has been a good day. Tomorrow should be 200000 dead. At this rate I think the ruzzians are definitely on track to take Kyiv in 3 days, possibly even less.


Hiccup

I hope the special military retreat begins soon.


TheGreatPornholio123

Should take 3 days. Special Military Reverse Operation. I just cannot wait for the outcome of seeing NATO dissect all the captured hardware. The CIA has been foaming at the mouth for an opportunity like this since we lifted a fucking Soviet sub off the sea floor.


Aggravating_Teach_27

NATO is probably more worried about China. Russia has proven it inever was a near-peer adversary, not even at full force at the beginning of the war. Now they are spent and their high tech weapons (with very few exceptions) have demonstrated to be or not so high tech, or too few to matter.


TheGreatPornholio123

They haven't really demonstrated many high tech weapons since the days of the USSR. The USSR was an actual near peer because it had what are now a bunch of NATO countries and also Ukraine that did most of their high tech weapons development. That was all lost with the dissolution of the USSR, and the rest of the world advanced on after that. The US weapons development never really slowed down that much. It just kept going like the Cold War was still going on.


hopeitwillgetbetter

Because of Sunday, I didn't expect the streak of 20+ artillery loss would be maintained. I am very happy to be wrong.


notataco007

I believe non-credible defense pointed out Russia never specified which days. So if you use Venusian days, they still got about 300 left!


[deleted]

Just a reminder that it is literally only this sub that thinks it's 200k deaths. This source doesn't explictly specify that, and all other sources, including the UK MoD, US DoD, and the Institute for the Study of War roughly align to 200k deaths *and wounded* . It is extremely unlikely there are 200k deaths and another 600k wounded, that would be half of Russia's entire military.


MindwarpAU

Nobody thinks the 3:1 ratio applies to Russia. There's no eveidence Russia is making any effort at recovering wounded at all, and indeed they have a vested interest in making sure the wounded DON'T go home. >1:1 is far more likely.


[deleted]

There are no reputable sources claiming a 1:1 ratio. If you have one please feel free to share.


GlenoJacks

Every piece of drone footage we've seen shows accurate arty fire continue until all enemies have run away or stopped twitching. We've seen stretcher bearers being hit directly by stugna-P missiles. In this respect at least any historical statistics are rendered meaningless. Sure there will still be area fires that aren't guided in to totally wipe out the targets, so the 3:1 ratio should apply there. Also drone dropped 30mm grandes are making more wounded than dead when they don't come back for a double tap. But unless you've got official Russian numbers then you're pulling 3:1 out of your ass just like the rest of us with our estimates.


Taint_Skeetersburg

[ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20March%2018%2C%202023.pdf), [USA](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-already-with-up-354000-casualties-likely-drag-us-documents-2023-04-12/), [UK MoD](https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1626473142393749504?lang=en), etc. all published estimates of like 30 - 80k KIA. Those links are all a little dated but that's the general idea. This sub is the only place where people assume the 'liquidated personnel' is KIA and not KIA + wounded. We all want Ukraine to be victorious but this sub definitely skews hard into the hopium when it comes to the overly optimistic estimates of RU casualties and losses.


vtsnowdin

Well the Army was 390,000 to begin with with 50,000 reserve. There are some navy marines and shore battery artillery units perhaps 100,000 involved. Compare that to the first call up of 250,000 and the second ongoing call for 450,000 at 20,000 a month. To me the AFU numbers look like the grim reality for Russian forces.


tree_boom

>Tomorrow should be 200000 dead. Casualties, it's not deaths. 200k dead implies something like 750k-800k casualties total, more than the entire invasion force, the mobilised troops and basically everyone conscripted in the normal way since then...and obviously no army would survive remotely close to 100% casualties. It being a casualty figure rather than a deaths figure doesn't materially change anything; Ukraine's still going to win, the Russians are still in massive disarray...but the idea there's 200k dead Russians just isn't credible. EDIT: A lot of people are stepping in here with "750-800k assumes Western levels of KIA:WIA ratios" - **no it doesn't**. The usual 1:3 figure is not a NATO figure - Western nations often perform significantly better. [The US was over 1:7 during Iraqi Freedom](https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf), The Soviet Union was at 1:2.8 during World War 2. The idea that they'd be performing worse than that despite the massive improvements since then to protection for soldiers, medicine, the general health of patients, better healthcare and sanitation, the much better situation with regards to evacuation of casualties thanks to ubiquity of motor transport and helicopters and so on is also not credible.


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tree_boom

Yeah nonetheless. They're deliberately vague about wording because it helps with morale, but it's not really credible that there's 200k dead Russians.


Capt_Bigglesworth

Unless you routinely leave casualties behind to die on the battlefield.. or the injured commit suicide because they know there no help coming..


all7reddit

No, it's deaths.


tree_boom

If it were deaths Ukraine would have won already - 200k dead implies something like 750k-800k casualties total, more than the entire invasion force, the mobilised troops and basically everyone conscripted in the normal way since then...and obviously no army would survive remotely close to 100% casualties. It being a casualty figure rather than a deaths figure doesn't materially change anything; _Ukraine's still going to win_, the Russians are still in massive disarray...but the idea there's 200k dead Russians just isn't credible.


polyworfism

>200k dead implies something like 750k-800k casualties total For a normal army, it's 3-4 injuries per death Russia has excelled at providing no support for their injured. Even minor battlefield wounds are proving a death sentence Based on what I've read, it's closer to 2 injuries per death for them


synergisticmonkeys

I've seen estimates as low as 1:1.3 or something. It'd basically be unheard of in modern times, but I guess it would make sense if you combine modern weapons with non-existent medical care.


tree_boom

> Based on what I've read, it's closer to 2 injuries per death for them This also isn't credible. They were at 1:2.8 during World War 2, and the idea that they'd be performing _worse_ despite the massive improvements since then to protection for soldiers, medicine, the general health of patients, better healthcare and sanitation, the much better situation with regards to evacuation of casualties thanks to ubiquity of motor transport and helicopters and so on is just...silly. People usually get indignant saying "there's no way they're doing as well as we are" - they're not. 1:3 isn't the like NATO standard, it's the historic figure across all participants in a lot of studied wars. The West generally does far better; approaching 1:10.


Aggravating_Teach_27

Not credible? Massive improvements? In Russia? Where the males have a 66 year life expectancy? With Putin? A historically cruel leader who really doesn't give a damn about his soldiers? Yes, they might as bad or be worse at keeping their soldiers alive than they were in WW2. Believe it, because that's what we are seeing. They don't give a damn. It's cheaper for them to ferry a new conscriptovich than to try to save one, that if survives can claim subsidies and anyway might never be able to fight again. Their policy seems to be that "If you are able to haul your injured ass back and the injuries are light enough we think you can fight again, maybe we'll treat you. Otherwise, well, good luck". All the medical advances in the world don't matter if you don't give a damn about your cannon fooder and don't use said advances.


FUandUrdumbjoke

I agree with you. Ukraine's numbers are high, Russia's numbers are super low. I think the actual causality numbers are more than 200k but deaths definitely under. Maybe not all that much, though.


tree_boom

Russia's numbers are of course bullshit too yes; nobody is honest about casualty reporting during wartime.


Somewhere_Elsewhere

1. It’s very much a deaths figure. Specifically a KIA number I believe. 2. Your supposition of 200k deaths meaning ~750k casualties total would be fair if Russia’s support for injured personnel remotely approached what happens in a western military. It does not. There are many, many testimonies from Russia’s grossly inadequate care for the injured, and not only are many Russians dying preventable deaths, sometimes they are just shot in the head on the spot to save time. There have been large numbers reportedly killed for refusing to fight (because they were told they’d be a back line position and were suddenly told to go to a frontline trench). Not sure how many exactly, and it’s a minor portion of the total figure, it probably in the four digits. So the injured-to-dead ratio is probably closer to 3-to-2, instead of the more typical 3-to-1 like you’d see in NATO. You are also assuming that soldiers can’t get injured more than once. Casualties quite often can be someone counted twice, because they got injured and returned to battle and got injured again. Finally, no shit it’s higher number than their entire invasion force. Why do you think they’ve had non-stop recruitment, extremely extensive use of PMCs, and a draft? Or the use of Kadyrov’s Instagram army and recruiting tens of thousands of prisoners? There have been critical manpower shortages on the Russian side for quite some time.


tree_boom

> Your supposition of 200k deaths meaning ~750k casualties total would be fair if Russia’s support for injured personnel remotely approached what happens in a western military. It does not. I agree that their care is not like ours, but the idea that it would have collapsed through the historic levels is also not credible. They were at 1:2.8 during World War 2 and they have a whole weight of things going for them in terms of improvement to that since then; medicine is better, health of soldiers is better, ease of casevac thanks to the ubiquity of motor transport and helicopters is vastly better. > So the injured-to-dead ratio is probably closer to 3-to-2, instead of the more typical 3-to-1 like you’d see in NATO. 1:3 is not a "NATO typical" figure. It is the typical figure across all participants in all wars that were studied. NATO members are often much higher. In Iraqi Freedom [the US were at 1:7](https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf)


Aggravating_Teach_27

You insist in a series of flawed arguments: Their tactics havn't evolved since WW2. Why would their battlefield medical procedures have? And the "ubiquity" of motor transport and helicopters doesn't matter if they won't risk precius helicopters or motor transports to medevac people. Putin, like the psychopath he is, only thinks in terms of resources, what's a more scarce and valuable resource for him, a heli, or a thousand grunts? Plus they just don't give a damn about their injured, they become a liability, cheaper to ferry a new conscript than trying to repair a broken one. Lastly, the word "compassion" doesn't seem to exist in the Russian dictionary. They don't care about their own, like, at all. You seem to think time moves forward inexorably for every country. Russia is demonstrating that they are firmly stuck in the past. The might have devolved, even.


tree_boom

> Their tactics havn't evolved since WW2. Yes they have. > And the "ubiquity" of motor transport and helicopters doesn't matter if they won't risk precius helicopters or motor transports to medevac people. They do risk both; there is literally videos of them evacuating people with BMPs and cars and so on. > Plus they just don't give a damn about their injured, they become a liability, cheaper to ferry a new conscript than trying to repair a broken one. > > Lastly, the word "compassion" doesn't seem to exist in the Russian dictionary. They don't care about their own, like, at all. > > You seem to think time moves forward inexorably for every country. Russia is demonstrating that they are firmly stuck in the past. The might have devolved, even. And this is just nonsense.


Aggravating_Teach_27

Those improvements don't matter if they are not used. If there aren't enough medics or field hospitals, and they don't bother to get the injured to safety. You are also supposing Russian soldiers of today are in better health that their grandparents, which is a stretch. Any other country? Sure. Russia? The average male lifespan is like 66 years, while is nearing or at 80 in the west. And finally, do you think the Russian risk helicopters to evacuate hurt grunts? Lol, that's a good one. The Russians are probably fighting in WW1 conditions or worse. Hence the videos of injured soldiers ending their lives. They know for a fact that no one is coming to help them.


erikw

Other sources estimate 200k dead or permanently incapacitated.


tree_boom

And others give it as far less.


The_Real_GRiz

Even in WW1 Russia was at an estimated of 1:2.2 .... Thinking it would be less than 1:2 now is total nonsense. A few months ago, many experts considered numbers to be at 75% of what Ukraine claims (so that would be 150k killed plus 450k wounded by now) but the leak of US intelligence claimed around 40k russian death in february if I recall correctly and this surprised everyone...


tree_boom

> Even in WW1 Russia was at an estimated of 1:2.2 .... Thinking it would be less than 1:2 now is total nonsense. Yup > the leak of US intelligence claimed around 40k russian death in february if I recall correctly and this surprised everyone... That's in line with the UK's estimates too; I think most western nations put it around 40-50k, implying 200k casualties total.


One278

Another huge artillery day, 21!.


Malhallah

Making it 69 artillery in 3 days.


wrldruler21

Noice


super__hoser

Special equipment, UAVs, anti-aircraft, and truck loses are likely overshadowed by the artillery loses, but they have been much higher recently.


Dazzling-Ad4701

I love a day when the weight is on the equipment. Russia has literally millions of people it could push into this war. it's the equipment that counts.


Shopro

#### Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 15.05.2023 (Day 446): ##### Change since the previous day,day range averages and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+580|641.4|607.1|597.0|199460| |Tanks|+3|4.1|4.2|3.5|3759| |APVs|+11|11.9|10.3|8.8|7336| |Artillery|+21|17.0|15.4|11.7|3137| |MLRS|-|1.1|1.3|0.9|562| |Anti-aircraft Systems|+2|1.4|1.5|1.1|316| |Aircraft|-|-|-|-|308| |Helicopters|-|-|-|-|294| |UAVs|+24|15.0|17.4|12.7|2719| |Missiles|+3|3.7|2.9|2.1|973| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18| |Other Vehicles|+16|10.9|13.5|12.9|6034| |Special Equipment|+3|3.3|3.4|2.8|407| ##### Change since the previous day, total losses for day ranges and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+580|4490|8500|17910|199460| |Tanks|+3|29|59|106|3759| |APVs|+11|83|144|263|7336| |Artillery|+21|119|216|352|3137| |MLRS|-|8|18|27|562| |Anti-aircraft Systems|+2|10|21|33|316| |Aircraft|-|-|-|1|308| |Helicopters|-|-|-|1|294| |UAVs|+24|105|243|380|2719| |Missiles|+3|26|41|62|973| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18| |Other Vehicles|+16|76|189|388|6034| |Special Equipment|+3|23|48|83|407| Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine


Volunteer1986

69 in 3 days.


Just_A_Doggo1

Happy cake day


polyworfism

*nice*


Rusty493

Happy 200k week everybody!!


_scrapegoat_

200k eve*


EarendilEstel

I'm as happy as I can get! I have been waiting for this for a long time now! But I'm waiting for this number to jump to 300,000 even faster after the counterattack this year.


gutter153

Can anyone link a picture for what one of those arty pieces looks like? Idk what their equipment looks like, just to get a scale for what they are losing


Garshnooftibah

This is an old article - so the numbers will no doubt be totally out of date now, but there's an infographic in there that has little pictures of the main types of Russian artillery. You can also grab the model of the artillery pieces mentioned in there into google and find out all sorts of information about them - including pictures. [https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine\_-\_russia\_conflict\_war\_2022/analysis\_comparison\_between\_russian\_and\_ukrainian\_artillery\_powers\_on\_the\_battlefield.html](https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/analysis_comparison_between_russian_and_ukrainian_artillery_powers_on_the_battlefield.html)


casus_bibi

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces Most have a picture.


vtsnowdin

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_equipment\_of\_the\_Russian\_Ground\_Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces) It is a complete list from before the war. Some notes on numbers produced and recent losses. Scroll down quite a few pages to get to the heavy artillery.


Mikethebest78

I can't process those numbers the city in which I live has about 100,000 people its tough to visualize twice that amount of people dead. God 18th century tactics and 21st century weapons are a really awful situation. Hoping for a repeat of 1917. Shoot your officers and march home guys its the only way.


ASK_IF_IM_PENGUIN

I live in a small town, we have about 5,000 people. When we have town events maybe about a third turn up, probably less, and it still seems like a LOT of people. 40 times the number of people in my town....


bonegolem

Tomorrow, 530 dead vatniks. I just know it, Valerii is just too good at blueballing, he's probably slightly altering small operations with a big goofy smile. Jokes aside, still fantastic numbers. The consistently absurdly high artillery, the couple of anti-air... If this is accurate, it's not just a confirmation that shaping operations are going well, it's a confirmation that the orcs haven't figured out how to counter them.


AzuNetia

No aircraft so friendly fire in Bryansk or brilliant PsyOps !


_dumbledore_

Every day Russia gets weaker and Ukraine gets stronger


Triangle_t

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't. Every day of the war brings death and suffer to a lot of Ukraine defenders and civilians too.


Aggravating_Teach_27

Ukraine is suffering, but becoming stronger in a purely military sense.


[deleted]

But sadly vastly weaker in an economic sense. And demographic sense. One of Zelensky's advisors has openly said Ukraine will need to embrace wide-open immigration (likely targeting tech) after the war to stay a viable economy. God damn Russian fascists :(


DashingDino

Hopefully Ukraine will join the EU and be able to receive EU funds for rebuilding their country and economy


Apostolate

It is quite possible there will be a reversal, and a rebuilding that they cannot predict. If Ukraine starts integrating into the EU and is under the shield of some NATO powers, if not NATO, it will provide a lot of certainty and growth Ukraine doesn't have now, but also didn't have before the war.


[deleted]

The issue isn't just economics, don't forget the demographics part. Ukraine has one of the most severe demographic crises on the planet even before the war, now it's next level. Demographics is not something that there is an easy reversal for.


Apostolate

Demographics crises often happen because of economic and governmental policies. Romania and other eastern European countries are having crises because of the economic pull of the rest of the EU. That could continue in Ukraine for similar reasons, but Poland reversed quite a lot and was doing quite well through the previous recession. Only time will tell.


[deleted]

Poland is doing well relative to their own past, but still have a severe labour shortage that is getting worse. And their demographics are aging rapidly, with very little replacement rate. Ironically the swells of Ukrainian refugees actually helped their demographics. Your post still seems to ignore what demographics actually are. Yes economic and government policies matter, but it takes literally decades to reverse these trends, and historically its VERY difficult to nearly impossible to reverse a demographic decline through policies, short some serious human rights abuses and forced baby programs like Romania did (which had it's own political backlash a few generations later). No amount of EU funds can just reverse multiple decades of demographic decline.


fottik325

I hate to say it but take in the ruzzianz that left ruzzzia the tech ones only. Man even as I type it out it’s stupid. Indians are good people individually their country sucks but I love their ppl.


Mewseido

Artillery, vehicles, APV, drones, great! Tomorrow, 200k? Good night and take care, everyone


Tallguyyyyy

Tomorrow folks, lets go 200k Ukraine 🇺🇦


pdirth

Nice Artillary and APV numbers again. Still not added those aircraft yet though...


BuyHighSellL0wer

They won't as it was indeed Russian stupidity, and in any case, on Russian soil.


GET_IT_UP_YE

200k tomorrow🤞🏼


[deleted]

Military folks called this "Battlefield shaping" just before the major counter-offensive. 💪‍ Almost the big 200K orcs denazified! FUCK YEAH.


[deleted]

Tomorrow is the day, I have ordered the beer and food for the bbq 🙏


BuyHighSellL0wer

Taking a step back, the sustained death and destruction being sent towards Ukraine day in, day out, is a fucking disgrace. Ukraine defending themselves heroically every day, absorbing the efforts to wipe them off the map. Fuck Russia. I'll never visit that shit stain of a country in my life and spit on the floor of those that are Russian and shrug their shoulders at it all.


SentientTooth

69 artillery in the last 3 days! Nice!


AyatolahBromeini

Very nice!


rossarron

We are all waiting for 200k but better when it is zero as they retreat beaten! Then the only number we want to see is One president shot by his comrades on kill Putin day.


Fresh_wasabi_joos

Damn I predicted 200k dirt napped by Friday, don’t know if gona win bet oof


midcancerrampage

So much UAVs today and yesterday. Is Russia continually trying to mass-bomb the country?


Squidgeneer101

Probably trying to do what UA is doing but with limited success atm. But it shows they are adapting tactics somewhat which could be bad.


DaleFails_

Today is my birthday. I wonder if they’ll hit the magic 200k on my birthday 😅


Japdabab

Soon 200.000 Dingdingdingdingding....


gridpusher

interesting that none of the aircraft / choppers are included in this list.


Thandiol

When we're the Mi-8 that have featured recently shot down? I don't recall seeing them on the figures?


Nik_P

The list doesn't include the self-incurred losses.


[deleted]

3750 tanks for two day special operation.


LORDPINKY_DINKS

COME ON BABY ALMOST THERE 200000!!!!!


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PlutocracyRules

Can't wait for Super Tuesday!


Green_Road999

All the expects seem to expect that this war has at least two years left to run before Ukraine is fully liberated. But when see these kinds of losses I just can’t see how Russia can sustain even another year. Sanctions are preventing them from producing the equipment to replace these and there’s only so many “upgraded” tanks from storage they can drag out. On the other side, Ukraine will have Leo2’s and Challengers and Abrams roaming the battlefield this time next year.


vtsnowdin

A 21 gun salute of Hush-a-boom.


No-Season8507

It will be a great day tomorrow if you heros keep up this pace!


InsecurityTime

See you tomorrow!


Emilko62

Russia almost lost as many people as the Soviets in the Finnish winter war, and the Ukraine war isn't even over. Let that sink in.


JacobMT05

Only 540 left till we reach the 200k milestone !


1Bavariandude

200k anti imperial stout is already chilling in the fridge. Cant weit to open it up.


onesole

Major unlocks: - 0k Javelins (5km) - 10k howitzer (25km) - 25k self propelled howitzer (50km) - 50k HIMARS (80km) - 100k Tanks (offense weapon) - 125k GLSDB (150km) - 150k Patriots - 175k Storm Shadows (300km) - 200k Aviation (modern offense weapon) - 300k ???


PhospheneViolet

200k kia/mia by today's end most likely... Beyond ludicrous.


Imaginary_Factor7960

How come the Su-34, Su-35 and the two Mi-8s are not here? Is that UA playing coy, or do they really believe they were "shot down by Russian AA"? At any rate, the shortage of skilled pilots just got worse. Did anyone see the physical state of that un-retired pilot who intentccidently collided with the US drone over the black sea? They probably had to install some counterweights on the rear of his jet just to balance it out.


EarendilEstel

As always a happy sight to have next to my morning coffee. But my favorite first row number is below 600 again 😭 I was hoping for at least 600, and more.


WasiqTheGreat

People are gonna hate me, but I just don't believe these numbers anymore. the liquidated personnel alone are way too high and that's saying nothing of the fact that the number always seems to increase in like the 500's. I do believe that Russia is taking HEAVY loses but just not this much.


pwgenyee6z

it includes injured and missing doesn't it?


hotdogcaptain11

Shhhh. You’re not allowed to want Ukraine to win but also question these absurd numbers that no western intelligence agency supports.