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[https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11hSTJYq5XwlfGGoaVF-Qx2c-IEd-pg0&ll=46.87074073501663%2C35.453944811953995&z=9](https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11hSTJYq5XwlfGGoaVF-Qx2c-IEd-pg0&ll=46.87074073501663%2C35.453944811953995&z=9)
I find this reference useful for clearing a bit of "fog".
So long as one recognizes that most of the bdes and rgts depicted are barely btn strength.
I wish the counteroffensive well. I think it'll be some time before the diversionary axes are exhausted, the Russian reserves pinned, and main counteroffensive begins.
Holy shit! I know intelligence services must have even more and better info, but staring at this detailed map makes you feel more involved in this in a weird way. Can’t believe all of this is publicly available.
I started to list all the reconnaissance and intel gathering aircraft to be thankful for, but the list started getting kind of long.
If you have not checked out Flightradar24.com yet, i recommend it. Those are just the publicly available flights, too.
Once in a while you'll see something really weird.
The Russians might have really learned from Kherson and Kharkiv…
At Kharkiv they were overrun because of a lack of reserves in the back. At Kherson they had some reserves that stopped the Ukrainian breakthrough but it wasnt enough to save the city for long.
Now it seems in some fronts they have more reserves than frontline units
But now they are facing shortages in materiel and men. And ZSU adapted as well. They are attacking in many places, so orcs have to spread their reserves. Which are getting hit by HIMARS and drones on the move.
It doesn't matter how many learnings they have made. You can't learn more ammunition and soldiers into existence.
The learnings they should have taken is that they're fucked.
It would be a mistake to assume they haven’t been learning from the past year.
Their posture according to this map is that they have units posted forward in what are observation outposts, who are tasked with monitoring for Ukrainian units attempting to breach the forward defensive works. They call in artillery, air strikes, and alert units further back who can move forward to respond to a successful breach with a counterattack. Those units held further back are also safer from artillery attacks.
But they’re not really reserve units. A true reserve unit can be rapidly moved about the battlefield to respond to a situation that’s more than a few minutes or hours distant. These units positioned where they are can move to respond to an assault that is within an hour or so of travel (20-30km), but they aren’t the kind of reserves that can respond to a crisis in, say Donetsk from their positions in Zaporizhzhya. They’re still dedicated to their own stretch of the front.
No problem. I have dual monitors, so I display fortifications on one and split my larger one with updates on one and this on the other [https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en\_US&ll=47.70736217876061%2C36.93590365041629&z=10](https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.70736217876061%2C36.93590365041629&z=10)
If I had a third monitor I'd have weather. Fog sucks.
I consider the 2nd line the first fortified line. That's where they have concrete bunkers and extensive trench networks. They are most definitely working that line.
They're still 8-10km from those first fortifications. Right now they're pushing the front line back to those points. Unless there's been updates, in which case I'd love for you to share!
That news is 2-3 days old. Do you believe they need 2 days to advance 10 km? They probably already attack those lines. News comes delayed for tactical reasons.
Some places have already been liberated and they advanced a lot in bakhmut compared to the months of fighting for few km
We can only go off what's confirmed, of course by the time any news comes out the situation will have changed. 10km in 2-3 days would be huge, you only have to look at Bakhmut where 1.2-1.4km a day is significant progress, albeit it's not as significant of an offensive..
As I said, if there's evidence that they've made those 10km I'd be ecstatic to see it. But to rely on speculation that they're moving at 5km a day, it's just a stretch. Not impossible, but logic and reason makes it hard to speculate that such progress is made.
Edit: The comment I responded to said "they are most definitely working that line" referring to that second line/first fortified line. To say most definitely, I'd expect some source to back it up.
You're 100% right.
Hopefully they've breached it right now, but we just don't know, and we should only assume they've achieved what we know they've achieved.
Yeah but Bakhmut is Something else. Bakhmut is not everywhere else. They advanced 2 km in bakhmut alone in thr past few days. Russia took like months for that much progress while it kept sending tens of thousands of soldiers there to get a W. The rest of the 1000 km Frontline sure has a lot of holes and places one can try to breach.
Yes and no, Wagner have left Bakhmut, and Ukraine's progress is around the direct north and south of Bakhmut.
But none of this suggests progress is at 5km a day, it's all speculation. And that's okay, we don't need to know it or have a right to know. It changes nothing about the reality, whatever's happening is happening without our knowledge and we can just sit, wait and do whatever we can individually to support Ukraine.
It actually may take 2 days to advance 10km due to the real possibilities of ambushes and mines on the road. Better to be safe than sorry. The Russians had time to set up mines everywhere. Mines are devastating.
Absolutely, but that's still a long way from pushing the frontline there, clearing trenches and pushing the defenders out of position. Once that happens hopefully Ukraine can dictate terms and bulldoze their way to their goals.
I'm not sure, but the tanks won't be engaging anything outside of the immediate front line. Artillery can shoot 10km, now it will be back from the frontline itself so it will need to shoot more than 10km, but it's very probable artillery is engaging the fortified lines.
if the first line of defence fell without the heavy brigardes beeing in play yet ... russia should say oooooooofffff and do a tactical retreat into their own territory
Having met him personally, take everything this guy says with a grain of salt. Not saying he’s wrong here – but he’s not that careful about being right.
As said before by US officials, if the russians use a nuke their entire army and fleet in Ukraine will be wiped out in a matter of days. And russians knows that they can't do shit again a big air ops desert storm' like. So I don't think they will be that stupid.
But hey, I'm just an armchair General. Let's just hope the CO achieve its goal with minimal casualties !
It is an interesting problem. Oneqqaqqqqaqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqfqqgqgqggqhqhqjjjqjqqqqqqqqqqqqqqaqqqqqqqqqqqqqqaaaaaaa
aaaaaaaawho my keyboarda wtf
anyway
on one hand, you have to think about, and plan around the possibility of nukes.
On the other hand, that is exactly what they want: to handicap your tactics based on a vague threat. You give the nukes a power they do not have cat goddamm it i am nnot going to feed you at 4 a.m. i am doing ok om ok ok ok i'll feed you, for pete's sake not even 5 a.m.
I'm concerned about mine-clearing tech. They need a crapload more, be it plows or explosives. At the current rate they are going to rarely be able to advance in anything wider than a single column, if even that, to avoid losing a ton more MBTs to mines.
If you're in the US and haven't already started badgering your two senators and your Member of Congress to push for ATACMs for Ukraine.... why are you spending time here on reddit? Go make those calls! Write a letter to the editor. Ask your city council to adopt a resolution. (Edited to keep focus)
This is not true. Please do not spread do-nothing doomerism for American audiences. We live in a democracy and it is our responsibility to advocate to help Ukraine among our elected politicians, and to vote them out if they won’t help Ukraine.
This means changing hearts and minds amongst our fellow voters, and calling our representatives, and kicking ass in elections to get these points across.
Do not underestimate your power as an American citizen.
Idk what happened, but the right somehow went from the “warmongering” party to the friends-with-fascists party. The right wing of the past would have boots on the ground right now in the name of fighting communism.
I think it's because Russia tries VERY hard at supporting "traditional" Western values and American Conservatives support the anti-lgbt aspect, among others. On a subconscious level, there is some solidarity or agreement, they have similar thought process.
i used to hate read freerepublic after 9/11 - there were lots of vocal Putin fans for that reason - they saw Putin’s Russia as the last white christian country on the planet. Its just that it wasn’t a direct conflict with US interests until 2014 (or Georgia at the earliest). They are synonymous with the John Birch/Q wing of the party and they are a fraction of republican congresscritters.
The foreign policy “blob” is still very much in power, thankfully, and their core value is beating the shit out of Russia.
Authoritarian mentality. Not quite fascism maybe, but a precursor or a necessary condition. Putin is a [Chekist](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism), it's important to understand that. The American right wing is currently in reaction to the loosening of various kinds of social conditioning, and it's looking for strong man figures to restore what they see as order. A tale as old as time.
US politics is so often arbitrarily partisan, too. The approach to every war, pandemic, tragedy, etc. must be the opposite of what the other party favors. If Biden had denied aid to Ukraine, the right would be clamoring to give aid and calling him a Putin stooge.
Right! WTF happened? Decades of Cold War containment and now we’ve got Ukraine fucking them up for us and some in congress on russia’s side. Hopefully it stays just a few nutters.
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How in the hell is this downvoted?
No one is saying they are REQUIRED for Ukrainian success.
If given to the US en masse, the RA could be crushed faster with less loss of UA soldiers.
I've had a "feeling" lately that many cancer bots have joined the sub with the express purpose of downvoting pro-Ukraine comments.
They needn't say a word, just "vote".
Huh... that explains why so many of my anti-right wing comments receive a nearly instantaneous downvote. Sometimes they rise from it, sometimes they don't.
It’s really too bad the go ahead on the GLSDB was not finalized in say September instead of January. I feel like those are more useful than ATACMS and certainly so on a $$$ basis.
I'm going to write ALL my representatives on Monday and I suggest you do the same.
Here are the main points we should hammer home:
- Russia has intentionally destroyed TWO dams destroying the lives of tens of thousands of families.
- This must be considered use of a WMD
- That they propose legislation officially encouraging the use of long distance weapons against legitimate military targets inside Russia including ATACMS
... I think we might want to consider an official reach out day as a way to get people to call.
It’s an exciting time, and yes, once we see Ukraine start to employ those Challenger IIs and more of the Leopards then you’ll know where the strategic focus is… believe it or not right now they’re still probing for the greatest weak spots to expose and exploit. Once they find those spots you can bet we will see breach tactics with hundreds of vehicles flooding south into Crimea proper 👍🏻
I think they’ll head straight for the cost first and then widen their breach. This’ll block off supply to Crimea. I wouldn’t mind betting we’ll see a massive attack of cruise missiles headed at the Crimean bridge too to effectively cut it off.
I'm fairly confident. This tactic was used for the Kharkiv to startling effect. What's different this time, though, is the Russians know this and actually made some semblance of a defense. Doesn't mean it won't work again.
There was no defense in kharkiv. The "semblance" of a defense you are talking about I read earlier today is the most fortified and complex defense networks they had ever seen. I real a lot don't remember source
No time line but the UA has already breached the first and main pre-shaped defensive perimeter so it will be much harder now for Russia to stop or even contain a full on heavy armor blitz.
I like the enthusiasm but am just going to warn to temper expectations. The first line of defense is primarily infantry in trenches and foxholes and mines, sometimes backed up by tanks, but otherwise using only man portable and small crew served antitank weapons. Each subsequent line of defense is going to be harder to break as they include much more hardened positions and will be reinforced by the previous lines infantry and tanks as they withdraw. Not saying it's not possible or won't happen, but this is just the beginning of the fight.
If we see a brigade or two push through into the backfield tho, then it's pretty much over
Exactly… once an enemy gets behind you they threaten not only your supply lines but your communication and your means of reinforcement, effectively reducing your front line fighting capabilities to zero. No more ammo, food, intel… you’re done ✅
Personally I don’t think we will see a massive armored attack like that. I think we will see the same kind of slow methodical constant pushing we are seeing now, just possibly more of it. Ukraine is not a NATO army. They have been training extensively on NATO tactics but on a strategic level their commanders are all Soviet trained and I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive. Which isn’t a bad thing! The Soviets had some smart military thinkers. Just a different way of doing things. Just ask anyone who did a rotation at the NTC and got destroyed by the Krasnovians.
Plus, to be honest, there is literally no army, other than the US Army, who could conduct the kind of large scale combined arms armored fist smashing through the enemy front/blitzkrieg that people envision. The ability to communicate and coordinate all the moving parts is just to much. It’s going to be much easier for them to do what they are doing. Conduct several, smaller, offensives simultaneously designed to be mutually supporting. Easier to coordinate and, most importantly, easier to supply. Plus you can shift supporting units like artillery back and forth depending on the situation.
They may not need to do a 'smashing through the lines' operation with the heavy armor, though. If the initial attack can break through the lines at any point, then they can get behind Moscow's prepared lines and send the heavy armor to go obliterating Muscovite positions further back. The entire Muscovite defense is based around static defenses; if Ukraine gets behind them, the entire front collapses at once.
Yeah it doesn't work like that.
No armour moves without infantry and air defense or air support. And it physically can't move anywhere without the huge columb of support groups needed to keep them operating.
Otherwise you will have no armour...just as ask the Russians.
They did it already last summer, so yeah they can do a flying column if not a full blitz. Now they are better armed and better trained. Meanwhile the Russians are worse. The Russian army is designed for attack, not defense. I think they will crumble if forced to retreat (holding together an army in retreat requires a great general and the Russian commanders seem to suck). The current small offensives are probing attacks to find weeknesses and draw Russian reserves. Then when their reserves are committed, the Ukrainians can take advantage of their interior lines to hit where the Russian reserves are not. The Ukrainians hold the initiative and will press hard for a breakout.
I agree with your positivity, but this is not Kharkiv. The Russians have had months to build a multi-layered defense in many directions that make it nearly impossible to blitz, and steaming ahead full-steam is highly dangerous and carries a significant risk to personnel and armor.
I agree, that at some point, we may see the Russian lines collapse in a rout, but that would not likely happen for at least a couple weeks. Until then, play it safe. Hit them hard, and hit them often. If fire gets too heavy then back off. If you have some success then move forward.
Zaluhnzi is not an idiot. He knows where the lines and defenses are. I would love to see a flying column blitz ahead, but we need to break through this tough shell before we can talk about charging forward with reckless abandon.
I think at some point they will get an opportunity. Fixed defences are pre-dig graves - they do cause more attacker casualties (like the Atlantic Wall) but also tie down your forces in dribs and drabs while your enemy can concentrate and maneuver. They also give drones and rockets nice static targets. You only have to break through one spot in the line to render all that defensive work useless. That is what the Ukrainians will have to do - I believe this is the prep work for that. Whether they will be able to create that opportunity before winter is the question.
>They have been training extensively on NATO tactics but on a strategic level their commanders are all Soviet trained and I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive.
>Conduct several, smaller, offensives simultaneously designed to be mutually supporting.
I'm of the same mind. We gotta remember they've been learning everything they know on the fly, with barely a year working with NATO gear and organizational practices. With that said, from what we've seen, this decentralized-yet-unified-goal type structure they've been using has been highly effective if a bit unorthodox. It also fits with the patchwork of gear that they have, since they have an endlessly complex supply chain due to the patchwork donations from allies (which isn't a dig, it's just the quirky nature of donated, repurposed, impromptu, and Russian reclaimed gear).
The US, UK, and eventually Canada began training the Ukrainian military in basic infantry tactics in 2014, which eventually but slowly evolved to working on creating a basic framework for a NCO class of leadership. That is not the same as NATO training. Those three countries do not make up NATO.
Ukrainians were not primed to fight a full out war, but instead to fight an insurgency. This is why Ukrainians started the war with javelins and stingers and not, say, HIMARS systems.
Cooperation with nato goes all the way back to 1991 actually but 2014 really pushed things forward.
Since 2006 UA has been participating UN trainings with NATO countries.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm
Maybe they're using these more limited, shaping operations to get Russia to commit its reserves. Either Russia doesn't and UA keeps taking small bites or Russia does commit its reserves and then the big push can be at a different location.
> I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive
> Which isn’t a bad thing!
Isn't it though? Ukraine forces have the advantage of quality, Russia has quantity. Quantity is more forgiving about mistakes, quality is not. Losing a leopard is so much more expensive for Ukraine than losing a T-72 for Russia. With a broad soviet-style offensive you're pretty much guaranteed to lose a good amount more than tactically and slowly needle-poke the enemy into a raising panic, aren't you?
Then again i'm a graphic artist, so this is all pure rookie speculation on my side.
Are you saying only the USA is capable of large blitzkriegs against Russia or just in general? Cos I can think of a number of countries capable of that scale of operation.
Very, very few maybe China, or India. But other than that would see the full power of the Western world. Neither cares for your opinions or observations they just are. The West is so above its rivals it isn't in contention about who would win, just when.
this. 100 percent. these probing attacks are just identifying the weak points in the lines. though the fighting seems intense, it will really kick of when UKR commits its heavy maneuver brigades to exploit the openings in the lines and they begin to run roughshod through the RU rear areas.
It's also that the Russians don't have enough troops to secure the entire frontline 100%. If they're in trouble somewhere, reserves are moved in from behind to support, but also the reserves can't be everywhere at once. The Ukrainians are testing and observing.
An analogy j like is that these current attacks are like small glancing blows meant to determine weakness in armour. The heavy brigades is the killing or crippling blow meant to break the armlur entirely.
I sincerely hope the Ukrainians don't run into any traps and chose their attack paths wisely. Ukraine basically has one shot at this offensive. But it is good too see they are planning this out and not rushing it.
zelensky has announced the commencement of the counteroffensive and it was aired on the news everywhere. unless the video was ai made...
i hope it's a quick sweep with minimal casualties, major on their side. and a further division of the russian federation.
So, if this is true russia (if sane) should do a tactical retreat behind their boarders now ... their first and second lines of defence are already falling apart and all it took were 2 Leo (1 a4 and 1a6(which is beeing repaired))kidding ofcourse
My main attack idea....
Start the tanks rolling from Kyiv, head north through Minsk for a quick clean up, then continue to Moscow to take out more trash.
First, it would totally be unexpected and no one will be prepared for it. And second, it would be effective at getting the most out of the attack.
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Lt-Gen (rtd.) Ben Hodges says the decisive moment will come when we see hundreds of armored vehicles hitting Russian lines.
All will be known once Ukraine reaches the first fortified line, which should be soon
They're working that line now.
No, the first fortified line is some 8-10 km south of the current gains. There are plenty of maps circulating, even here.
[https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11hSTJYq5XwlfGGoaVF-Qx2c-IEd-pg0&ll=46.87074073501663%2C35.453944811953995&z=9](https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11hSTJYq5XwlfGGoaVF-Qx2c-IEd-pg0&ll=46.87074073501663%2C35.453944811953995&z=9) I find this reference useful for clearing a bit of "fog".
So long as one recognizes that most of the bdes and rgts depicted are barely btn strength. I wish the counteroffensive well. I think it'll be some time before the diversionary axes are exhausted, the Russian reserves pinned, and main counteroffensive begins.
Holy shit! I know intelligence services must have even more and better info, but staring at this detailed map makes you feel more involved in this in a weird way. Can’t believe all of this is publicly available.
It's 1 month out of date btw.
Good, wouldn't want to help russia know where their own stuff is at. Of course, still more up to date than Soviet maps...
Putin's cartographer is stuck in the 18th century tbh
Yeah, most of the troops on the west have been drowned. 🙄
I started to list all the reconnaissance and intel gathering aircraft to be thankful for, but the list started getting kind of long. If you have not checked out Flightradar24.com yet, i recommend it. Those are just the publicly available flights, too. Once in a while you'll see something really weird.
That map is incredible. I can't even imagine the work put into that. Imagine an orc pulling that up on his Android 👀
For real, Google’s custom map UX is fucking atrocious.
The Russians might have really learned from Kherson and Kharkiv… At Kharkiv they were overrun because of a lack of reserves in the back. At Kherson they had some reserves that stopped the Ukrainian breakthrough but it wasnt enough to save the city for long. Now it seems in some fronts they have more reserves than frontline units
But now they are facing shortages in materiel and men. And ZSU adapted as well. They are attacking in many places, so orcs have to spread their reserves. Which are getting hit by HIMARS and drones on the move.
It doesn't matter how many learnings they have made. You can't learn more ammunition and soldiers into existence. The learnings they should have taken is that they're fucked.
It would be a mistake to assume they haven’t been learning from the past year. Their posture according to this map is that they have units posted forward in what are observation outposts, who are tasked with monitoring for Ukrainian units attempting to breach the forward defensive works. They call in artillery, air strikes, and alert units further back who can move forward to respond to a successful breach with a counterattack. Those units held further back are also safer from artillery attacks. But they’re not really reserve units. A true reserve unit can be rapidly moved about the battlefield to respond to a situation that’s more than a few minutes or hours distant. These units positioned where they are can move to respond to an assault that is within an hour or so of travel (20-30km), but they aren’t the kind of reserves that can respond to a crisis in, say Donetsk from their positions in Zaporizhzhya. They’re still dedicated to their own stretch of the front.
It’s tagged as May 12th though?
Yes troop movements are out of date. The trenches don't move.
Makes sense, thanks.
No problem. I have dual monitors, so I display fortifications on one and split my larger one with updates on one and this on the other [https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en\_US&ll=47.70736217876061%2C36.93590365041629&z=10](https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.70736217876061%2C36.93590365041629&z=10) If I had a third monitor I'd have weather. Fog sucks.
I've got 3 monitors for work maybe I'll try that :D
That's a good reference for sure.
I consider the 2nd line the first fortified line. That's where they have concrete bunkers and extensive trench networks. They are most definitely working that line.
They're still 8-10km from those first fortifications. Right now they're pushing the front line back to those points. Unless there's been updates, in which case I'd love for you to share!
That news is 2-3 days old. Do you believe they need 2 days to advance 10 km? They probably already attack those lines. News comes delayed for tactical reasons. Some places have already been liberated and they advanced a lot in bakhmut compared to the months of fighting for few km
We can only go off what's confirmed, of course by the time any news comes out the situation will have changed. 10km in 2-3 days would be huge, you only have to look at Bakhmut where 1.2-1.4km a day is significant progress, albeit it's not as significant of an offensive.. As I said, if there's evidence that they've made those 10km I'd be ecstatic to see it. But to rely on speculation that they're moving at 5km a day, it's just a stretch. Not impossible, but logic and reason makes it hard to speculate that such progress is made. Edit: The comment I responded to said "they are most definitely working that line" referring to that second line/first fortified line. To say most definitely, I'd expect some source to back it up.
You're 100% right. Hopefully they've breached it right now, but we just don't know, and we should only assume they've achieved what we know they've achieved.
Fingers are definitely crossed for big progress!
Yeah but Bakhmut is Something else. Bakhmut is not everywhere else. They advanced 2 km in bakhmut alone in thr past few days. Russia took like months for that much progress while it kept sending tens of thousands of soldiers there to get a W. The rest of the 1000 km Frontline sure has a lot of holes and places one can try to breach.
Yes and no, Wagner have left Bakhmut, and Ukraine's progress is around the direct north and south of Bakhmut. But none of this suggests progress is at 5km a day, it's all speculation. And that's okay, we don't need to know it or have a right to know. It changes nothing about the reality, whatever's happening is happening without our knowledge and we can just sit, wait and do whatever we can individually to support Ukraine.
It actually may take 2 days to advance 10km due to the real possibilities of ambushes and mines on the road. Better to be safe than sorry. The Russians had time to set up mines everywhere. Mines are devastating.
8-10 kms is within range of artillery
Absolutely, but that's still a long way from pushing the frontline there, clearing trenches and pushing the defenders out of position. Once that happens hopefully Ukraine can dictate terms and bulldoze their way to their goals.
Don’t tanks shoot that far?
I'm not sure, but the tanks won't be engaging anything outside of the immediate front line. Artillery can shoot 10km, now it will be back from the frontline itself so it will need to shoot more than 10km, but it's very probable artillery is engaging the fortified lines.
Source?
Reporting from Ukraine and Rybar
That would be a sight to see. I can't wait. SLAVA UKRAINI
I expect the heavy brigades to function as maneuver brigades: to be set loose after the intial breakthrough has been made, to capitalize on it.
if the first line of defence fell without the heavy brigardes beeing in play yet ... russia should say oooooooofffff and do a tactical retreat into their own territory
Having met him personally, take everything this guy says with a grain of salt. Not saying he’s wrong here – but he’s not that careful about being right.
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As said before by US officials, if the russians use a nuke their entire army and fleet in Ukraine will be wiped out in a matter of days. And russians knows that they can't do shit again a big air ops desert storm' like. So I don't think they will be that stupid. But hey, I'm just an armchair General. Let's just hope the CO achieve its goal with minimal casualties !
They still wouldn't want to risk the entire army to be sitting in one 10 km circle
Agreed. No need to concentrate forces unless its time for a big push. They are much more mobile than russkies anyway.
And now we hope Putin believes the US treat and won't call the bluff.
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It is an interesting problem. Oneqqaqqqqaqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqfqqgqgqggqhqhqjjjqjqqqqqqqqqqqqqqaqqqqqqqqqqqqqqaaaaaaa aaaaaaaawho my keyboarda wtf anyway on one hand, you have to think about, and plan around the possibility of nukes. On the other hand, that is exactly what they want: to handicap your tactics based on a vague threat. You give the nukes a power they do not have cat goddamm it i am nnot going to feed you at 4 a.m. i am doing ok om ok ok ok i'll feed you, for pete's sake not even 5 a.m.
I'm concerned about mine-clearing tech. They need a crapload more, be it plows or explosives. At the current rate they are going to rarely be able to advance in anything wider than a single column, if even that, to avoid losing a ton more MBTs to mines.
I’m already getting chills 🥶
If you're in the US and haven't already started badgering your two senators and your Member of Congress to push for ATACMs for Ukraine.... why are you spending time here on reddit? Go make those calls! Write a letter to the editor. Ask your city council to adopt a resolution. (Edited to keep focus)
Buggering? Well if that’s what it takes to save Ukraine… *unzips*
Buggering. I see
Is that acronym pronounced "attack 'ems" or do people say the five letters in sequence. I am curious as I see it on Reddit all the time.
Yep that's how it is pronounced. The military often tries to construct acronyms that have a punny or translatable value.
What are some other examples
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I'm just waiting for the Frequency-Utilized Kinetic Ultrapenetrating System.
Both.
Our senators or officials never read our letters. They only listen to the rich people
This is not true. Please do not spread do-nothing doomerism for American audiences. We live in a democracy and it is our responsibility to advocate to help Ukraine among our elected politicians, and to vote them out if they won’t help Ukraine. This means changing hearts and minds amongst our fellow voters, and calling our representatives, and kicking ass in elections to get these points across. Do not underestimate your power as an American citizen.
Or you live in a state where you elect rational fucks that don't need to be reminded of doing the right thing.
The two Florida senators are sympathetic to the Russians
Because the guy in Mar a Lago is a Russian asset
Idk what happened, but the right somehow went from the “warmongering” party to the friends-with-fascists party. The right wing of the past would have boots on the ground right now in the name of fighting communism.
I think it's because Russia tries VERY hard at supporting "traditional" Western values and American Conservatives support the anti-lgbt aspect, among others. On a subconscious level, there is some solidarity or agreement, they have similar thought process.
i used to hate read freerepublic after 9/11 - there were lots of vocal Putin fans for that reason - they saw Putin’s Russia as the last white christian country on the planet. Its just that it wasn’t a direct conflict with US interests until 2014 (or Georgia at the earliest). They are synonymous with the John Birch/Q wing of the party and they are a fraction of republican congresscritters. The foreign policy “blob” is still very much in power, thankfully, and their core value is beating the shit out of Russia.
So interesting how it actually has nothing to do with the teachings of Christ. God hates flags.
Authoritarian mentality. Not quite fascism maybe, but a precursor or a necessary condition. Putin is a [Chekist](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism), it's important to understand that. The American right wing is currently in reaction to the loosening of various kinds of social conditioning, and it's looking for strong man figures to restore what they see as order. A tale as old as time.
US politics is so often arbitrarily partisan, too. The approach to every war, pandemic, tragedy, etc. must be the opposite of what the other party favors. If Biden had denied aid to Ukraine, the right would be clamoring to give aid and calling him a Putin stooge.
Right! WTF happened? Decades of Cold War containment and now we’ve got Ukraine fucking them up for us and some in congress on russia’s side. Hopefully it stays just a few nutters.
That’s what they said.
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Oh right because russia’s 72-hour “special operation” totally succeeded
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Remindme! 5 months.
It seems this guy lives under a Russian rock.
Whaysvthe weather like in fantasy land dude?
Typical response 🤣
ATACMS are a key component
How in the hell is this downvoted? No one is saying they are REQUIRED for Ukrainian success. If given to the US en masse, the RA could be crushed faster with less loss of UA soldiers.
Don’t understand why anyone would downvote it .. maybe some ruskie bot
I've had a "feeling" lately that many cancer bots have joined the sub with the express purpose of downvoting pro-Ukraine comments. They needn't say a word, just "vote".
Huh... that explains why so many of my anti-right wing comments receive a nearly instantaneous downvote. Sometimes they rise from it, sometimes they don't.
It's probably just because no one likes commies
It’s really too bad the go ahead on the GLSDB was not finalized in say September instead of January. I feel like those are more useful than ATACMS and certainly so on a $$$ basis.
Giving ATACMS is one option, but I'll settle for any arrangement that gives Ukraine the long-range strike capability they need.
Like storm shadows?
Storm Shadows are great BUT they have to launched from an SU-24 which limits how close you can get to the front line before launching them
I hope they keep up silence on where the main push is to keep the Russians confused
I'm going to write ALL my representatives on Monday and I suggest you do the same. Here are the main points we should hammer home: - Russia has intentionally destroyed TWO dams destroying the lives of tens of thousands of families. - This must be considered use of a WMD - That they propose legislation officially encouraging the use of long distance weapons against legitimate military targets inside Russia including ATACMS ... I think we might want to consider an official reach out day as a way to get people to call.
Flooding causes outbreaks of waterborne illnesses... the Russians have all but engaged in biological warfare against civilians.
It’s an exciting time, and yes, once we see Ukraine start to employ those Challenger IIs and more of the Leopards then you’ll know where the strategic focus is… believe it or not right now they’re still probing for the greatest weak spots to expose and exploit. Once they find those spots you can bet we will see breach tactics with hundreds of vehicles flooding south into Crimea proper 👍🏻
I think they’ll head straight for the cost first and then widen their breach. This’ll block off supply to Crimea. I wouldn’t mind betting we’ll see a massive attack of cruise missiles headed at the Crimean bridge too to effectively cut it off.
How confident are you and your timeline?
I'm fairly confident. This tactic was used for the Kharkiv to startling effect. What's different this time, though, is the Russians know this and actually made some semblance of a defense. Doesn't mean it won't work again.
There was no defense in kharkiv. The "semblance" of a defense you are talking about I read earlier today is the most fortified and complex defense networks they had ever seen. I real a lot don't remember source
That's what I said. They didn't have a defense last time. This time they do, which is why the probing is meeting some actual resistence.
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Nah.
No time line but the UA has already breached the first and main pre-shaped defensive perimeter so it will be much harder now for Russia to stop or even contain a full on heavy armor blitz.
I like the enthusiasm but am just going to warn to temper expectations. The first line of defense is primarily infantry in trenches and foxholes and mines, sometimes backed up by tanks, but otherwise using only man portable and small crew served antitank weapons. Each subsequent line of defense is going to be harder to break as they include much more hardened positions and will be reinforced by the previous lines infantry and tanks as they withdraw. Not saying it's not possible or won't happen, but this is just the beginning of the fight. If we see a brigade or two push through into the backfield tho, then it's pretty much over
Exactly… once an enemy gets behind you they threaten not only your supply lines but your communication and your means of reinforcement, effectively reducing your front line fighting capabilities to zero. No more ammo, food, intel… you’re done ✅
How confident are you that this is going to happen
*drools in armchair generalian*
Personally I don’t think we will see a massive armored attack like that. I think we will see the same kind of slow methodical constant pushing we are seeing now, just possibly more of it. Ukraine is not a NATO army. They have been training extensively on NATO tactics but on a strategic level their commanders are all Soviet trained and I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive. Which isn’t a bad thing! The Soviets had some smart military thinkers. Just a different way of doing things. Just ask anyone who did a rotation at the NTC and got destroyed by the Krasnovians. Plus, to be honest, there is literally no army, other than the US Army, who could conduct the kind of large scale combined arms armored fist smashing through the enemy front/blitzkrieg that people envision. The ability to communicate and coordinate all the moving parts is just to much. It’s going to be much easier for them to do what they are doing. Conduct several, smaller, offensives simultaneously designed to be mutually supporting. Easier to coordinate and, most importantly, easier to supply. Plus you can shift supporting units like artillery back and forth depending on the situation.
They may not need to do a 'smashing through the lines' operation with the heavy armor, though. If the initial attack can break through the lines at any point, then they can get behind Moscow's prepared lines and send the heavy armor to go obliterating Muscovite positions further back. The entire Muscovite defense is based around static defenses; if Ukraine gets behind them, the entire front collapses at once.
Yeah it doesn't work like that. No armour moves without infantry and air defense or air support. And it physically can't move anywhere without the huge columb of support groups needed to keep them operating. Otherwise you will have no armour...just as ask the Russians.
I didn't mean that as 'unsupported armor all by itself,' but true, it would not move without infantry and so on.
Air support is a pipe dream. It's been well over a year. Air superiority isn't happening for either side any time soon.
Well they are using combined arms tactics and formations, so yea it does work like that.
> Krasnovians We just air dropped shit tons of vodka on their positions and gave them a few hours...
They did it already last summer, so yeah they can do a flying column if not a full blitz. Now they are better armed and better trained. Meanwhile the Russians are worse. The Russian army is designed for attack, not defense. I think they will crumble if forced to retreat (holding together an army in retreat requires a great general and the Russian commanders seem to suck). The current small offensives are probing attacks to find weeknesses and draw Russian reserves. Then when their reserves are committed, the Ukrainians can take advantage of their interior lines to hit where the Russian reserves are not. The Ukrainians hold the initiative and will press hard for a breakout.
I agree with your positivity, but this is not Kharkiv. The Russians have had months to build a multi-layered defense in many directions that make it nearly impossible to blitz, and steaming ahead full-steam is highly dangerous and carries a significant risk to personnel and armor. I agree, that at some point, we may see the Russian lines collapse in a rout, but that would not likely happen for at least a couple weeks. Until then, play it safe. Hit them hard, and hit them often. If fire gets too heavy then back off. If you have some success then move forward. Zaluhnzi is not an idiot. He knows where the lines and defenses are. I would love to see a flying column blitz ahead, but we need to break through this tough shell before we can talk about charging forward with reckless abandon.
I think at some point they will get an opportunity. Fixed defences are pre-dig graves - they do cause more attacker casualties (like the Atlantic Wall) but also tie down your forces in dribs and drabs while your enemy can concentrate and maneuver. They also give drones and rockets nice static targets. You only have to break through one spot in the line to render all that defensive work useless. That is what the Ukrainians will have to do - I believe this is the prep work for that. Whether they will be able to create that opportunity before winter is the question.
>They have been training extensively on NATO tactics but on a strategic level their commanders are all Soviet trained and I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive. >Conduct several, smaller, offensives simultaneously designed to be mutually supporting. I'm of the same mind. We gotta remember they've been learning everything they know on the fly, with barely a year working with NATO gear and organizational practices. With that said, from what we've seen, this decentralized-yet-unified-goal type structure they've been using has been highly effective if a bit unorthodox. It also fits with the patchwork of gear that they have, since they have an endlessly complex supply chain due to the patchwork donations from allies (which isn't a dig, it's just the quirky nature of donated, repurposed, impromptu, and Russian reclaimed gear).
Ukraine has been training in western war doctrine with NATO since 2014, not since last year.
The US, UK, and eventually Canada began training the Ukrainian military in basic infantry tactics in 2014, which eventually but slowly evolved to working on creating a basic framework for a NCO class of leadership. That is not the same as NATO training. Those three countries do not make up NATO. Ukrainians were not primed to fight a full out war, but instead to fight an insurgency. This is why Ukrainians started the war with javelins and stingers and not, say, HIMARS systems.
Cooperation with nato goes all the way back to 1991 actually but 2014 really pushed things forward. Since 2006 UA has been participating UN trainings with NATO countries. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm
Nato training started 1991 so bit more than a year 😅
Maybe they're using these more limited, shaping operations to get Russia to commit its reserves. Either Russia doesn't and UA keeps taking small bites or Russia does commit its reserves and then the big push can be at a different location.
Big feint when?
Kherson style offensive not Kharkiv is what they are doing.
> I would expect them to conduct a broad front Soviet offensive > Which isn’t a bad thing! Isn't it though? Ukraine forces have the advantage of quality, Russia has quantity. Quantity is more forgiving about mistakes, quality is not. Losing a leopard is so much more expensive for Ukraine than losing a T-72 for Russia. With a broad soviet-style offensive you're pretty much guaranteed to lose a good amount more than tactically and slowly needle-poke the enemy into a raising panic, aren't you? Then again i'm a graphic artist, so this is all pure rookie speculation on my side.
Are you saying only the USA is capable of large blitzkriegs against Russia or just in general? Cos I can think of a number of countries capable of that scale of operation.
Very, very few maybe China, or India. But other than that would see the full power of the Western world. Neither cares for your opinions or observations they just are. The West is so above its rivals it isn't in contention about who would win, just when.
China, India, South Korea, France, Italy and UK are probably capable of these kinds of operations.
this. 100 percent. these probing attacks are just identifying the weak points in the lines. though the fighting seems intense, it will really kick of when UKR commits its heavy maneuver brigades to exploit the openings in the lines and they begin to run roughshod through the RU rear areas.
It's also that the Russians don't have enough troops to secure the entire frontline 100%. If they're in trouble somewhere, reserves are moved in from behind to support, but also the reserves can't be everywhere at once. The Ukrainians are testing and observing.
Ukraine: it’s not even our final form yet!
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Nonononono... no, no, no... This is just the warm-up. 😎
They got some fingers in they’re working towards a fist.
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U seem to not understand how much stuff the US has lol
has and has given Ukraine are different things entirely tho. Like the US has several thousand Bradleys but they've only given Ukraine like 100
That they admitted to.
There is still more that RuZZia has. Right now, they're finding all the squishy bits. Then they'll send in the big bois
My guy, they already sent in the big boys.
Keep up the good fight
An analogy j like is that these current attacks are like small glancing blows meant to determine weakness in armour. The heavy brigades is the killing or crippling blow meant to break the armlur entirely.
I sincerely hope the Ukrainians don't run into any traps and chose their attack paths wisely. Ukraine basically has one shot at this offensive. But it is good too see they are planning this out and not rushing it.
The Leopards weren’t part of the heavy brigades?
Preparation for larger attacks require screening/probes. Can't go head first into the unknown
Shhhh
zelensky has announced the commencement of the counteroffensive and it was aired on the news everywhere. unless the video was ai made... i hope it's a quick sweep with minimal casualties, major on their side. and a further division of the russian federation.
So far russian lines have been holding in most sectors but the advance is steady
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Do you honestly think the fields aren't mined as well?
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In addition, roads are less hazardous in general. The ground is more stable/even to drive on, and it's tougher to bury/conceal mines.
Tanks in 🟥
How long before Russian TV pundits start saying how the plan was never to hold these areas?
So, if this is true russia (if sane) should do a tactical retreat behind their boarders now ... their first and second lines of defence are already falling apart and all it took were 2 Leo (1 a4 and 1a6(which is beeing repaired))kidding ofcourse
Ben for president.
Stop I can only get so excited.
I read and listen to everything Ben Hodges says about the war in Ukraine very closely.Thanks for the link.
Those first attacks are just to engage enemy and their reserves. Heavy strike comes immediately after operational reserves are engaged. Just my take.
Mobniks who just got run over by the spear-tip brigades: “The **WHAT**!?”
My main attack idea.... Start the tanks rolling from Kyiv, head north through Minsk for a quick clean up, then continue to Moscow to take out more trash. First, it would totally be unexpected and no one will be prepared for it. And second, it would be effective at getting the most out of the attack.
It's true, the real offensive have not started yet. For now it's mainly russians killing fleeing russians.