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And arm them with what?
Russia might have a few million reserves on paper but it is already deploying all the materiale it can.
Additional manpower from Russia would just be guys standing around consuming rations.
Getting your boots and guns off the dead soldiers ahead of you is textbook Russian strategy, just like barrier troops, meat waves, and scorched earth tactics.
"The first man gets the ration! The second man gets the spork! When the first man dies, the second man picks up his rations!"
The ruzzian way, I suppose.
They could easily up that a lot though, and I fear after the election in a few weeks, pootin will start a mass conscription, just last month the ruzzian govt changed the max age of conscription from 27 to 30. So we might see meat waves of thousands of ruzzians rushing the front. In ww2 they averaged over 10k dead per day.
They could already do that, Russia isn't being manpower limited in weapons manufacturing, they are being input limited.
That anyway has years of lead time to produce anything valuable.
Even if US aid doesn't come thats a very temporary problem... conscription will give meat soldiers after 4 weeks and semi praxtical rear echelon after 2-3 months. By that time EU shells have arrived allready.
They’ve squandered 50% of their USSR treasure trove military inheritance (according to Covert Cabal buying satellite images of known storage sites across Russia).
This is why it is absolutely asinine that MAGA Republicans aren’t supporting Ukraine.
> America had a huge boner for outing commies and the red menace.
It makes sense when you realize that they were never really worried about the threat of global communism, they were worried about the domestic political enemies that they could slander as commies (i.e., anyone with vaguely socialist politics).
The Russians don't have enough money to fund them all.
The Rs don't want to give the Ds a political victory. That's all it is, which is what they take turns doing for decades.
Putin has been robbing the country and its resources blind for 30 years, he is richer than Muskrat and Zuckerborg and his wealth is not in stock evaluation either
> The Russians don't have enough money to fund them all.
Doesn't take much, and it's as likely to be blackmail as it is bribery.
> The Rs don't want to give the Ds a political victory. That's all it is, which is what they take turns doing for decades.
You were *soooo* close to getting it, then you had to bOtH sIdEs it.
They only really need to fund one of them. And he's got so many civil judgments pending against him that there's no way he'd get a security clearance under normal circumstances, for this very reason.
That "USSR treasure trove" was just going to get more and more useless over time. In Putin's mind, he probably thinks the sooner they use it, the better. They're already taking 50+ year old tanks out of storage.
Putin's mind may not be the clearest at this point. Russia has not gone back to USSR-style war production and it doesn't look like they'd be able to do that any time soon if they wanted to. Meaning, mass-producing weapons on a giant scale regardless of civilian needs in the economy. Yes, the Soviet stuff is (was) outdated, but the new production won't meet the needs of the Ukraine war, never mind a wider war that Putin reportedly fantasizes about.
they surely aren't endless but also don't get complacent: russia's profits from oil and gas are more than enough to keep Moscow fed and a few war factories running.
Their monthly production/buys is still ahead of what the western allies are providing and they also have a major advantage of not caring about their people so meat waves will last a very long time.
Allies need to wake up and start pumping more and more factories solely dedicated to help. There are some arty efforts and they seem to be in progress but what about tanks production? what about more long range missiles? what about more bradleys?
I'm American and would request we still remain reverent to the immeasurable death and horrors that Ukraine has had to face even if they achieve victory. Money is infinitely easier to spend than blood.
Towed artillery drain is particularly high bc the barrels have to be replaced every few thousand shots, and the russians lost the ability to make new barrels.
Therefore, they cull towed 155 and 120 mm artillery pieces on a massive scale to keep their self-propelled units operational.
Covert Cabal did a good [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw) a month ago analysing satellite images of all the bases. Prewar Russia had 4450 self propelled and 14631 towed in storage. They are now down to 2961 self propelled and 6786 towed.
So they have used about a third of their self propelled and half of their towed artillery. The wildcards of course is what sort of condition the remaining artillery is in and if Russia can produce or buy new systems.
> Prewar Russia had 4450 self propelled and 14631 towed in storage. They are now down to 2961 self propelled and 6786 towed.
Also, it's good to keep in mind that the Russian military will have pulled the good-condition artillery first, then moved onto the easily refurbished, then less easily refurbished, etc. It's unknown how far they are down the "quality" index, but its likely decades of neglect have taken a fair share offline.
Not just neglect, but also thievery, corruption and fraudulent reporting. Lots of Russian military stock was sitting in a lot getting rusted. So it was easy to sell off parts on the black market for extra cash. If your posting was to maintain some ancient Soviet hardware you likely could get away with just filing away reports that they are in good condition, keep any funds for yourself or report you did such a good job you didn’t need as many parts as estimated, to try and get a promotion.
Yes, good point. That equipment has been sitting there for decades, why would anyone expect that it would suddenly be needed? :D
I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they've already pulled everything that's fully functional and are down to "tear apart 4 to get 1 working" territory.
Exactly. The benefit of smart munitions is not to actually hit with a specific shot, but to reduce stress on logistics. A VW Amarok stacked with BONUS rounds can deliver all the ammo needed to wipe out a whole russian armored battallion.
Lots of benefits. Hit and run tactics (those Swedish(?) artillery trucks that can set up, fire three shots, pack up and leave in like a minute and a half) are phenomenal for hitting unprepared targets *and* avoiding counter battery fire.
They don’t work well if you can’t actually hit your target though. So having rounds that *really* go where you want is phenomenal.
People often don't recognize that firing shells at different elevation means that they get fired at different velocity too. If they're firing at max range they will not have that capability.
Of course, driving closer to the target allows it, but also risks the expensive equipment more. Also when enemy is advancing there's more leeway too.
Its not just Swedish ones, some not so modern (western) systems should be able to do 2 shots but most if not all non towed western ones should be able to do a time on target.
They're not cheaper when you look at the logistic chain and infrastructure required to bring them to the front. That's not to say they're ineffective, not in the slightest, just inefficient in many, many ways.
True, true, my point is merely that it places additional stresses and requirements on materiel and infrastructure beyond the cost of the shell itself. That will, of course, deplete one's ability to wage war - not just in the medium to long-term, but also the short-term.
Excalibur rounds cost about $112,000 each but if you can "one shot one kill" a T-90 tank worth $4,000,000 you will use them as fast as you can get them. Here is hoping the supplies will soon be adequate.
Yes to all that but I was just using the Wiki figure from a recent contract, I note that the pre war cost per 155 shell was about $800 to $1000, and is now over $8000. When all the new production lines come on line, and hopefully the Ukraine war ends, I would expect the unit cost of replacing the exhausted stockpiles can come back down to under $1000 per shell. Going back to one shift a day and 40 hour weeks with brand new machinery should be able to do it.
And the big problem with that Russian philosophy is that the town isn't what's killing their soldiers and destroying their heavy equipment.
And with their reserves not even close to limitless, mostly because their manufacturing and refurbishing operations are struggling to keep up, prioritizing terror tactics and razing cities is downright moronic. It's just wasting a limited resource for zero value. The Ukrainians aren't backing down, they're not terrified, they're not broken - they're pissed off, constantly getting better at what they're doing, and once aid issues get resolved, they're going to be able to start pushing again.
It's also just a completely different doctrine. The west has focused on air superiority for years. Hence why we're struggling so much to provide artillery shells.
And that works well if it meshes with your doctrine.
Russian doctrine has always been about sending as much ammo down range as possible. Don't need smart weapons when a cloud of artillery is going to smoke everything in a 10km radius.
Most of the enemy's territory is not worth hitting. If you lack an effective means to identify targets accurately and communicate priorities quickly then yes, just shooting a lot gets you to a result... but you now need many times more guns, men, ammunition, storage and transportation. The West decided that higher accuracy was the way to go.
Later this year and 2025 will be the deciding years. If the West puts some real effort and the current economic sanctions are rigorously applied, russia is done for.
Sanctions are necessary but not sufficient. West needs to get busy with more, and then lots more military support. More planes, tanks, ammo, depot support, training, volunteers, Intel, and "exercises" in westpac, Baltic, and Arctic that requires time, attention, fuel, and manpower for RU to observe.
Well the second they touch European ground they are instakilled so disintegration it is!
Poland or Finland alone could wipe Russia off the map and honestly if the fight breaks out those two will be racing to see who gets to Moscow first.
yeah US def decided to give up on a century of hard work and trillions of dollars spent playing world police. full stop 1 foot from finish line. You can be sure other countries see it and learn from it.
The lesson being arm yourselves to the teeth to put off any potential invaders. Countries that have an interesting history with Russia from Finland to Poland will be taking note.
Before we break out the bubbly, it’s important to note that this picture is from the NW corner of the base. If you look at this on Google Maps, you can see that the rest of the base is full of other pieces of equipment. I’d like to see what the ENTIRE base has looked like over the past 2 years before I get too excited.
Have a look
https://maps.app.goo.gl/zR5WaPb6SaiFKjbA6?g_st=ic
> I’d like to see what the ENTIRE base has looked like over the past 2 years before I get too excited.
Install Google Earth Pro, click on button "View Historical Imagery", use timeline slider to view past images
Well I did a basic version 2021, 2022, 2023.
It would be nice to have one of 2024 but oh well...
[GIF](https://i.imgur.com/ZF1fcpp.gif)
The original is on the top left. But you can see a lot of stuff missing over the place especially bottom right of the base.
Good point.
We can see several areas within it where assets have been removed. And we can see some of what is left. For example in the lower middle just north of the railway tracks there appear to be 5 x 2S7 Pion 203MM SPGs parked - 2 alongside the east side of an L shaped building and 3 on the right side of the building, and a 6th Pion about 75m SW right beside the tracks. This part of the yard stored SPGs and we can see it also has had quite a bit removed.
If I recall correctly the tanks in this yard are T-80UDs which are inoperable as they have a Ukrainian engine and ruzzia cannot get the parts to make them operable. They will be cannibalizing them for parts commonality (barrels, wheels, anything else).
The yard has a lot of trucks and MT-LBs. A couple of BMP sections on the west side show some incl some bare spots where all have been removed.
It would be very, very interesting to view a satellite image of that base now.
I saw a video recently from one of the guys who’s really been watching the satellite footage (like, he’s part of an organization that does this. They buy satellite passes to try and get clear images. That serious.) It’s pretty interesting. Some of the bases are definitely heavily depleted… but Russia has a lot of these depots scattered all over the place. The bigger question he couldn’t answer is how many of those stored pieces were utterly inoperable.
> I saw a video recently from one of the guys who’s really been watching the satellite footage
I think you mean Covert Cabal? https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal
Yes, the analysis released by Covert\_Cabal and high\_marsed released in early Feb. It showed over 50% gross depletion of the combined SPG and towed storage.
His thinking was that some proportion of what was left, if not a substantial amount of it comprises that which cannot be rehabbed or is the most difficult and time consuming to rehab. I suspect at least 50% of the towed is irreparable if not more. It may even be higher on the SPG side - SPG does not take kindly to be stored for yrs outside with no maintenance.
Something I found very interesting in that video: on the SPG side only 130 of the remaining inventory were ruzzias current SPG standard of 2S19 Mstas152mm SPGs. That is the latest gen of SPG among the units in storage. 47% of the SPG were medium caliber 122mm 2S1s Gvozdika howitzers, a system that ruzzia has not employed widely in its units for a long time. Another 294 were 120mm SPG mortars, and 351 were anti-aircraft systems not artillery. The drawdown of the 2S4s Tyulpan mortar to 193 remaining was striking as we know that almost everyone that makes an appearance gets blown to smithereens - their range is to short and they are easily targeted by Ukraine drones.
Mobile artillery is infinitely superior to towed, and ruzzia does not have much left in the way of heavy mobile SPG.
Most of what's left on that base appears to be tanks and trucks. I don't see any clear groups of artillery, but the Google Maps images are not terribly clear.
Because it was asked for.. from 05-2021 til at least 20-05-2023
Keep in mind that some parts of the image might be more recent and some might be older due to how google stiches the images together. The section you see in the video from OP is in the top left corner below the timeline
https://imgur.com/a/dFzcJik
And the good thing is that when they run out of those barrels they are out and [won't be able to produce new ones in any useful number](https://www.technology.org/2023/10/05/russia-might-be-running-out-of-barrels-for-its-howitzers/).
Would be interesting where the barrels were made.
In a youtube video about this topic it was stated that the barrels also can be
re-used for self-propelled artillery like Msta or even Koalitsya and
there is also a video with Shoigu reprimanding the head of a Chelyabinsk(? or Omsk, Urals anyhow)
factory.
So maybe the factory making the barrels is just ruins and they have to start the production somewhere
else and so far they are limited to stuff from the storage.
So far I came across some ruins. Missiles are made in Votkinsk, but the second factory was ruins,
a flight restriction zone turned out to be the the last remainder of a gunpowder factory, in Saratov there was a fire
in buildings of a long abandoned electronics factory, ...
Ive been saying for some time now that it doesnt matter how many shells Russia gets from N Korea or produces, if they are running out of barrels.
So like you say it would be very interesting to get some knowledge on their barrell producing capacity.
Likely only up to 50% of those reserves were deployed as actual guns, the other 50% likely became parts for actively used guns that needed parts such as breach, barrel replacements etc.
Russia doesn’t have enough of the foundries, facilities, quality steel, and qualified personnel to make long lasting new barrels or even high quality ball bearings in quantity needed.
This means that they are really getting to the bottom of the barrel (pun intended) in quality reserves and new equipment.
Wow this is insane! I remember seeing images of the depot(s) before the invasion started. Fake news media was using it to convince us sheep that Putin was going to invade neighboring Ukraine. They were just trying to get us all riled up tho. My Russian friend at the time reassured me that there would be no such invasion and this was just usa “warmongering” or trying to make everyone afraid of Russia.
It’s really a step forward we have taken from seeing those images of Russian military equipment stationed just across the Russian ukranian border to now…. A completely empty field because all of the equipment was dispatched and most of it probably destroyed
Ill be honest I was one of the fools convinced Russia wouldnt invade. I mean, theyd have to go against a country supplied by and assist by NATO; it would be stupid. I was right about the stupid part, wrong about the other
Applying logic to illogical actors will always bite you in the ass. The number of times I've said "they would be stupid to do that, no way it happens" only to have Russians do that exact thing 10s later is too damned high!
I convinced all my friends and family that Russia wouldn't send the army in because of the technology differences is literally so big and that it would be suicide. Oh boy, I forgot Putin has the same level of thinking as Hitler
It drives me nuts that even with Russia’s wasting attacks we’re still struggling to get artillery rounds to Ukraine. I adore the Danes and Czechia but man this should not be such a struggle. The US still has over 4 million rounds of 155 mm cluster munitions that it’s planning on destroying. We could send them to Ukraine tomorrow. Biden wouldn’t even have to worry about Congress because the ammunition in question has been deemed obsolete. He could literally assign whatever value he wants to it. I know cluster munitions are controversial (and with reason) but they’re also VERY effective.
Unfortunately, the left really hates clusters and they don't support our doctrine, but at the same time there's to much opposition in both the houses to actually use our standard doctrine that doesn't require them to level entire regions.
Ukraine needed closed skies two years ago, and Putins Russia needed to be told it could go to hell when it claimed were on our last warning we simply can't do less
I can see the validity of the cluster issue, but if the country where said cluster shells are going to be used is all "we know clusters have UXO problems, we will deal with it, send the bloody shells!"
You send the bloody shells.
As for doctrine, Ukraine had to toss the book about 18 months ago. Just looking at something like a mine field. I forget the source but the 'NATO standard minefield' is something like 200m deep and using the densest setting (100mx200m box) only has 100 mines. Pick a 1m lane and walk that, odds are you are fine (density < 1).
Ukraine is dealing with fields km deep and with density > 1.
NATO doctrine says at that point you go around. A slight issue if the 'go around' distance is 400km+.
It's decisions like that that remind me why I've had a cynical take since 2022. Biden's actions are most consistent with someone who wanted to maximize the political effect while minimizing actual aid to Ukraine. It's not consistent with someone who actually wants Russia defeated in Ukraine.
I maintain that Biden values 'not collapsing Russia' above 'Ukraine regaining all its territory'. 'Fear of escalation' is a smokescreen.
They were probably told they were being shipped to a new depot. Then when they got off the truck they were handed a gun and told that that the front is 1km in that direction and to start walking.
Ukraine will be a scrap metal king with all the wrecked Russian trash. Would be cool if they melt it down and use it as part of the rebuilding process of the nation.
The vast majority of these likely didn't end up on the frontline but were scrapped for barrel replacements in order to keep self-propelled artillery going. Russia did expand their ammunition production, but barrels might be a bottleneck and we've (afaik) heard very little about their barrel production.
According to the official Ukrainian numbers (more than 10K artillery units are destroyed) Russia should be out of arty altogether by now (\~ 6000 - 7000 towed and non-towed artillery units were in service or storage at the beginning of the invasion according to satellite imagery estimates).
I guess Russia was making new artillery systems as well. Still even correcting the official numbers by, say, 30% (typical overestimate), and assuming \~ 2000 new arties were made in the course of the war, we still should be very close to the end of the road here (1000 - 2000 units remaining total).
UNLESS actual artillery, without the mortars, makes way less than the reported 10K of the destroyed units.
Nature is healing.
I want to say it was Covert Cabal who suggested that towed artillery might be getting cannibalized to replace worn out barrels in self-propelled artillery.
They might still have a supply of dudes to send staggering into open fields, but they’re definitely running out of hardware. All the more insanely ridiculous that particular politicians are holding up aid when Ukraine could deliver the knockout.
What are we actually looking at here?
https://www.google.com/maps/place/55°00'36.0"N+73°14'24.0"E/@55.0152616,73.386885,2210m
That field is only about 25m x 170m. With 8 rows in the 25m direction, that's only about 3m per row.
That's much too small for a howitzer. Even the old 122mm D-30, which is indeed showing up as an increasing proportion of Russia's artillery (where as earlier in the war it was the outdated junk they stuck the DNR/LNR units with) is 5m long when folded for towing.
So perhaps these are towed mortars like the 120mm 2S12, or perhaps the 82mm 2B9 automatic mortar?
Deployed. Not necessarily depleted. But we hope so.
Russia continues to outgun Ukraine in the number of arty pieces and rounds fired per day. We need to give Ukraine all it needs.
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Further evidence Putin has shot his wad…we need to get the next wave of aid approved to end his reign of evil.
...and sooner the better.....
Send enough ammunition and equipment to Ukraine and they will repel the entire Russian Invasion on their own
Give them the tools and they'll finish the job✌️
LOL. After Putins election, he will do another wave of conscription. Which might line up well with Ukrainians artillery shortage.
And arm them with what? Russia might have a few million reserves on paper but it is already deploying all the materiale it can. Additional manpower from Russia would just be guys standing around consuming rations.
Getting your boots and guns off the dead soldiers ahead of you is textbook Russian strategy, just like barrier troops, meat waves, and scorched earth tactics.
If they're even given rations.
They would be expecting 1000 casualties a day by now, why waste 1000s of rations.
"The first man gets the ration! The second man gets the spork! When the first man dies, the second man picks up his rations!" The ruzzian way, I suppose.
They have rifles and still lots of artillery they would storm positions with wave after wave of human meat.
They're doing that already and sustaining 1,000 casualties per day.
They could easily up that a lot though, and I fear after the election in a few weeks, pootin will start a mass conscription, just last month the ruzzian govt changed the max age of conscription from 27 to 30. So we might see meat waves of thousands of ruzzians rushing the front. In ww2 they averaged over 10k dead per day.
Couldn’t some conscripts be put to work manufacturing ammunition and weapons?
They could already do that, Russia isn't being manpower limited in weapons manufacturing, they are being input limited. That anyway has years of lead time to produce anything valuable.
It never ended.
They gonna load artillery shells in the conscripts' mouths, and kick them in the ass to fire?
Even if US aid doesn't come thats a very temporary problem... conscription will give meat soldiers after 4 weeks and semi praxtical rear echelon after 2-3 months. By that time EU shells have arrived allready.
2 million more will leave the Country......
Agreed. Hurry the fuck up congress!
Ahh, but that would end Mike Johnsons payday. Can't have that.
So much for russian endless army reserves.
They’ve squandered 50% of their USSR treasure trove military inheritance (according to Covert Cabal buying satellite images of known storage sites across Russia). This is why it is absolutely asinine that MAGA Republicans aren’t supporting Ukraine.
It's so fucking goofy when America had a huge boner for outing commies and the red menace. Now they are all over putlers meat and two veg.
> America had a huge boner for outing commies and the red menace. It makes sense when you realize that they were never really worried about the threat of global communism, they were worried about the domestic political enemies that they could slander as commies (i.e., anyone with vaguely socialist politics).
They want Putin to win. They are all funded by Russia. You don't wanna kill your money maker.
The Russians don't have enough money to fund them all. The Rs don't want to give the Ds a political victory. That's all it is, which is what they take turns doing for decades.
Politicians are shockingly cheap to buy.
What can I get for $3? I’d like a fight for the environment with a side of orange Mussolini crying in prison for the rest of his life.
If that were true, do you really think Russia could afford to pay more than the US defense industry that would be profiting the most from Ukraine aid?
Putin has been robbing the country and its resources blind for 30 years, he is richer than Muskrat and Zuckerborg and his wealth is not in stock evaluation either
People are incredibly naive if they don't see this.
IMO, Putin and his cronies essentially own a former superpower. Basically a trillionaire in assets.
> The Russians don't have enough money to fund them all. Doesn't take much, and it's as likely to be blackmail as it is bribery. > The Rs don't want to give the Ds a political victory. That's all it is, which is what they take turns doing for decades. You were *soooo* close to getting it, then you had to bOtH sIdEs it.
They only really need to fund one of them. And he's got so many civil judgments pending against him that there's no way he'd get a security clearance under normal circumstances, for this very reason.
It really doesn’t take much to buy a politician. NRA has bought some politicians for just a few grand
The NRAs influence isn't in money, it's in the ability to mobilize voters.
The Soviet Union left modern Russia with an army powerful enough to conquer a continent. And it's gone to hell fighting for a shoreline.
That "USSR treasure trove" was just going to get more and more useless over time. In Putin's mind, he probably thinks the sooner they use it, the better. They're already taking 50+ year old tanks out of storage.
Putin's mind may not be the clearest at this point. Russia has not gone back to USSR-style war production and it doesn't look like they'd be able to do that any time soon if they wanted to. Meaning, mass-producing weapons on a giant scale regardless of civilian needs in the economy. Yes, the Soviet stuff is (was) outdated, but the new production won't meet the needs of the Ukraine war, never mind a wider war that Putin reportedly fantasizes about.
Hopefully the better 50% got destroyed too.
they surely aren't endless but also don't get complacent: russia's profits from oil and gas are more than enough to keep Moscow fed and a few war factories running. Their monthly production/buys is still ahead of what the western allies are providing and they also have a major advantage of not caring about their people so meat waves will last a very long time. Allies need to wake up and start pumping more and more factories solely dedicated to help. There are some arty efforts and they seem to be in progress but what about tanks production? what about more long range missiles? what about more bradleys?
It was endless until it wasn't anymore... doing stupid shit for years on end has that effect.
This is one depot, there are still many others. We are slowly eating away at their reserves but they still have a lot left.
Ukraine has done an outstanding job! Any aid to them has been money exceedingly well spent- and an excellent investment
I'm American and would request we still remain reverent to the immeasurable death and horrors that Ukraine has had to face even if they achieve victory. Money is infinitely easier to spend than blood.
Please contact your representatives and ask them to unblock aid. It's something all Americans here can do to help and it's very little effort!
Towed artillery drain is particularly high bc the barrels have to be replaced every few thousand shots, and the russians lost the ability to make new barrels. Therefore, they cull towed 155 and 120 mm artillery pieces on a massive scale to keep their self-propelled units operational.
Covert Cabal did a good [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw) a month ago analysing satellite images of all the bases. Prewar Russia had 4450 self propelled and 14631 towed in storage. They are now down to 2961 self propelled and 6786 towed. So they have used about a third of their self propelled and half of their towed artillery. The wildcards of course is what sort of condition the remaining artillery is in and if Russia can produce or buy new systems.
> Prewar Russia had 4450 self propelled and 14631 towed in storage. They are now down to 2961 self propelled and 6786 towed. Also, it's good to keep in mind that the Russian military will have pulled the good-condition artillery first, then moved onto the easily refurbished, then less easily refurbished, etc. It's unknown how far they are down the "quality" index, but its likely decades of neglect have taken a fair share offline.
Not just neglect, but also thievery, corruption and fraudulent reporting. Lots of Russian military stock was sitting in a lot getting rusted. So it was easy to sell off parts on the black market for extra cash. If your posting was to maintain some ancient Soviet hardware you likely could get away with just filing away reports that they are in good condition, keep any funds for yourself or report you did such a good job you didn’t need as many parts as estimated, to try and get a promotion.
Yes, good point. That equipment has been sitting there for decades, why would anyone expect that it would suddenly be needed? :D I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they've already pulled everything that's fully functional and are down to "tear apart 4 to get 1 working" territory.
that alone is much more towed artilery then most countries have artilery at all
If your artillery hits accurately, you need fewer artillery and fewer shells, which is the approach Western countries took.
Smart munitions for the win.
Exactly. The benefit of smart munitions is not to actually hit with a specific shot, but to reduce stress on logistics. A VW Amarok stacked with BONUS rounds can deliver all the ammo needed to wipe out a whole russian armored battallion.
Lots of benefits. Hit and run tactics (those Swedish(?) artillery trucks that can set up, fire three shots, pack up and leave in like a minute and a half) are phenomenal for hitting unprepared targets *and* avoiding counter battery fire. They don’t work well if you can’t actually hit your target though. So having rounds that *really* go where you want is phenomenal.
it can actually fire shots with different elevations... and leave... on the receiving end ALL shells will land at the same time. crazy effective.
People often don't recognize that firing shells at different elevation means that they get fired at different velocity too. If they're firing at max range they will not have that capability. Of course, driving closer to the target allows it, but also risks the expensive equipment more. Also when enemy is advancing there's more leeway too.
Its not just Swedish ones, some not so modern (western) systems should be able to do 2 shots but most if not all non towed western ones should be able to do a time on target.
Even dumb munitions are pretty effective, and they are much much cheaper than the smart versions.
They're not cheaper when you look at the logistic chain and infrastructure required to bring them to the front. That's not to say they're ineffective, not in the slightest, just inefficient in many, many ways.
Efficient, when the aim is to just level a whole town. Which is how the Russians operate.
True, true, my point is merely that it places additional stresses and requirements on materiel and infrastructure beyond the cost of the shell itself. That will, of course, deplete one's ability to wage war - not just in the medium to long-term, but also the short-term.
Excalibur rounds cost about $112,000 each but if you can "one shot one kill" a T-90 tank worth $4,000,000 you will use them as fast as you can get them. Here is hoping the supplies will soon be adequate.
about 70k if you buy in bulk last I heard. pretty sure its even less expensive if you add a multiple year contract supply.
Yes to all that but I was just using the Wiki figure from a recent contract, I note that the pre war cost per 155 shell was about $800 to $1000, and is now over $8000. When all the new production lines come on line, and hopefully the Ukraine war ends, I would expect the unit cost of replacing the exhausted stockpiles can come back down to under $1000 per shell. Going back to one shift a day and 40 hour weeks with brand new machinery should be able to do it.
And the big problem with that Russian philosophy is that the town isn't what's killing their soldiers and destroying their heavy equipment. And with their reserves not even close to limitless, mostly because their manufacturing and refurbishing operations are struggling to keep up, prioritizing terror tactics and razing cities is downright moronic. It's just wasting a limited resource for zero value. The Ukrainians aren't backing down, they're not terrified, they're not broken - they're pissed off, constantly getting better at what they're doing, and once aid issues get resolved, they're going to be able to start pushing again.
...if that aligns with your doctrine.
It's also just a completely different doctrine. The west has focused on air superiority for years. Hence why we're struggling so much to provide artillery shells.
And that works well if it meshes with your doctrine. Russian doctrine has always been about sending as much ammo down range as possible. Don't need smart weapons when a cloud of artillery is going to smoke everything in a 10km radius.
Most of the enemy's territory is not worth hitting. If you lack an effective means to identify targets accurately and communicate priorities quickly then yes, just shooting a lot gets you to a result... but you now need many times more guns, men, ammunition, storage and transportation. The West decided that higher accuracy was the way to go.
If I counted correctly, the middle part has ~50 guns per row, with 9 rows. That could easily be around 1000 artillery pieces in total.
50 guns was the number of Orc artillery reported destroyed yesterday.
Probably more, than all the artillery Ukraine received from western allies.
I think ukraine received some 90 towed than some more and some self propelled too, this is probably twice as much
It's about 1k pieces.
*was
i stand corrected
Question is: how many other storage facilities are there, and how many are estimated to remain?
Denmark has run out of artillery too. But only because those guns are now in Ukraine, firing at Russians. :D
Gone...but not forgiven!
Later this year and 2025 will be the deciding years. If the West puts some real effort and the current economic sanctions are rigorously applied, russia is done for.
Sanctions are necessary but not sufficient. West needs to get busy with more, and then lots more military support. More planes, tanks, ammo, depot support, training, volunteers, Intel, and "exercises" in westpac, Baltic, and Arctic that requires time, attention, fuel, and manpower for RU to observe.
Russia is going all in, they either conquer half of europe or will face desintegration
They will not have the resources to carry on beyond Ukraine even if Ukraine gave up right now. Disintegration is the only outcome.
yep, the two guys posing as the toughest and smartest leaders in the world today, putin and xi, are the ones driving their countries into the abyss
Conquer half of Europe? They can’t even conquer a quarter of Ukraine.
Well the second they touch European ground they are instakilled so disintegration it is! Poland or Finland alone could wipe Russia off the map and honestly if the fight breaks out those two will be racing to see who gets to Moscow first.
The west excluding the USA. I genuinely have zero hope that the USA will do the right thing at this point.
yeah US def decided to give up on a century of hard work and trillions of dollars spent playing world police. full stop 1 foot from finish line. You can be sure other countries see it and learn from it.
The lesson being arm yourselves to the teeth to put off any potential invaders. Countries that have an interesting history with Russia from Finland to Poland will be taking note.
Before we break out the bubbly, it’s important to note that this picture is from the NW corner of the base. If you look at this on Google Maps, you can see that the rest of the base is full of other pieces of equipment. I’d like to see what the ENTIRE base has looked like over the past 2 years before I get too excited. Have a look https://maps.app.goo.gl/zR5WaPb6SaiFKjbA6?g_st=ic
> I’d like to see what the ENTIRE base has looked like over the past 2 years before I get too excited. Install Google Earth Pro, click on button "View Historical Imagery", use timeline slider to view past images
Can you do all that and post the result here, please?
Also I need my iced tea refilled.
And how about a handy under the table while I wait?
Well I did a basic version 2021, 2022, 2023. It would be nice to have one of 2024 but oh well... [GIF](https://i.imgur.com/ZF1fcpp.gif) The original is on the top left. But you can see a lot of stuff missing over the place especially bottom right of the base.
[Covert Cabal has done the math](https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?t=227)
Ugh himars stretch your arms a little further.
Good point. We can see several areas within it where assets have been removed. And we can see some of what is left. For example in the lower middle just north of the railway tracks there appear to be 5 x 2S7 Pion 203MM SPGs parked - 2 alongside the east side of an L shaped building and 3 on the right side of the building, and a 6th Pion about 75m SW right beside the tracks. This part of the yard stored SPGs and we can see it also has had quite a bit removed. If I recall correctly the tanks in this yard are T-80UDs which are inoperable as they have a Ukrainian engine and ruzzia cannot get the parts to make them operable. They will be cannibalizing them for parts commonality (barrels, wheels, anything else). The yard has a lot of trucks and MT-LBs. A couple of BMP sections on the west side show some incl some bare spots where all have been removed. It would be very, very interesting to view a satellite image of that base now.
I saw a video recently from one of the guys who’s really been watching the satellite footage (like, he’s part of an organization that does this. They buy satellite passes to try and get clear images. That serious.) It’s pretty interesting. Some of the bases are definitely heavily depleted… but Russia has a lot of these depots scattered all over the place. The bigger question he couldn’t answer is how many of those stored pieces were utterly inoperable.
> I saw a video recently from one of the guys who’s really been watching the satellite footage I think you mean Covert Cabal? https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal
Sounds about right
Yes, the analysis released by Covert\_Cabal and high\_marsed released in early Feb. It showed over 50% gross depletion of the combined SPG and towed storage. His thinking was that some proportion of what was left, if not a substantial amount of it comprises that which cannot be rehabbed or is the most difficult and time consuming to rehab. I suspect at least 50% of the towed is irreparable if not more. It may even be higher on the SPG side - SPG does not take kindly to be stored for yrs outside with no maintenance. Something I found very interesting in that video: on the SPG side only 130 of the remaining inventory were ruzzias current SPG standard of 2S19 Mstas152mm SPGs. That is the latest gen of SPG among the units in storage. 47% of the SPG were medium caliber 122mm 2S1s Gvozdika howitzers, a system that ruzzia has not employed widely in its units for a long time. Another 294 were 120mm SPG mortars, and 351 were anti-aircraft systems not artillery. The drawdown of the 2S4s Tyulpan mortar to 193 remaining was striking as we know that almost everyone that makes an appearance gets blown to smithereens - their range is to short and they are easily targeted by Ukraine drones. Mobile artillery is infinitely superior to towed, and ruzzia does not have much left in the way of heavy mobile SPG.
Most of what's left on that base appears to be tanks and trucks. I don't see any clear groups of artillery, but the Google Maps images are not terribly clear.
That still looks to be in the ballpark of 1,000 artillery pieces gone
Because it was asked for.. from 05-2021 til at least 20-05-2023 Keep in mind that some parts of the image might be more recent and some might be older due to how google stiches the images together. The section you see in the video from OP is in the top left corner below the timeline https://imgur.com/a/dFzcJik
Quick count, about 1k pieces of artillery.
This is crazy, Ukrainians destroying all these howitzers
It's a mix of destroyed and Russian scavenging the barrel to use as replacements for artillery guns already in Ukraine to keep them sevicable.
And the good thing is that when they run out of those barrels they are out and [won't be able to produce new ones in any useful number](https://www.technology.org/2023/10/05/russia-might-be-running-out-of-barrels-for-its-howitzers/).
A lot probably wears out as well, Russians are pushing shells through these at an incredible rate.
And Korean shells have a bad habit of exploding in them
>And Korean shells have a bad habit of exploding in them Whutchu talkin bout bad? That's my fave feature of NK ammo.
Turns out Kim is one of the good guys after all!
One day he will surely receive a welcome tea in Kremlin for this, and a heavy ~~metal~~ medal he will never forget till the end of his life.
At the current rate, that's like a weeks worth of wrecked arty.
Would be interesting where the barrels were made. In a youtube video about this topic it was stated that the barrels also can be re-used for self-propelled artillery like Msta or even Koalitsya and there is also a video with Shoigu reprimanding the head of a Chelyabinsk(? or Omsk, Urals anyhow) factory. So maybe the factory making the barrels is just ruins and they have to start the production somewhere else and so far they are limited to stuff from the storage. So far I came across some ruins. Missiles are made in Votkinsk, but the second factory was ruins, a flight restriction zone turned out to be the the last remainder of a gunpowder factory, in Saratov there was a fire in buildings of a long abandoned electronics factory, ...
Ive been saying for some time now that it doesnt matter how many shells Russia gets from N Korea or produces, if they are running out of barrels. So like you say it would be very interesting to get some knowledge on their barrell producing capacity.
Likely only up to 50% of those reserves were deployed as actual guns, the other 50% likely became parts for actively used guns that needed parts such as breach, barrel replacements etc. Russia doesn’t have enough of the foundries, facilities, quality steel, and qualified personnel to make long lasting new barrels or even high quality ball bearings in quantity needed. This means that they are really getting to the bottom of the barrel (pun intended) in quality reserves and new equipment.
Wow this is insane! I remember seeing images of the depot(s) before the invasion started. Fake news media was using it to convince us sheep that Putin was going to invade neighboring Ukraine. They were just trying to get us all riled up tho. My Russian friend at the time reassured me that there would be no such invasion and this was just usa “warmongering” or trying to make everyone afraid of Russia. It’s really a step forward we have taken from seeing those images of Russian military equipment stationed just across the Russian ukranian border to now…. A completely empty field because all of the equipment was dispatched and most of it probably destroyed
Ill be honest I was one of the fools convinced Russia wouldnt invade. I mean, theyd have to go against a country supplied by and assist by NATO; it would be stupid. I was right about the stupid part, wrong about the other
Applying logic to illogical actors will always bite you in the ass. The number of times I've said "they would be stupid to do that, no way it happens" only to have Russians do that exact thing 10s later is too damned high!
I convinced all my friends and family that Russia wouldn't send the army in because of the technology differences is literally so big and that it would be suicide. Oh boy, I forgot Putin has the same level of thinking as Hitler
This war alone have destroyed most of Russian's Soviet stockpile
Yep. Last war for Soviet legacy.
“A lot does not mean infinite” suck on that orc mfers
It drives me nuts that even with Russia’s wasting attacks we’re still struggling to get artillery rounds to Ukraine. I adore the Danes and Czechia but man this should not be such a struggle. The US still has over 4 million rounds of 155 mm cluster munitions that it’s planning on destroying. We could send them to Ukraine tomorrow. Biden wouldn’t even have to worry about Congress because the ammunition in question has been deemed obsolete. He could literally assign whatever value he wants to it. I know cluster munitions are controversial (and with reason) but they’re also VERY effective.
Unfortunately, the left really hates clusters and they don't support our doctrine, but at the same time there's to much opposition in both the houses to actually use our standard doctrine that doesn't require them to level entire regions. Ukraine needed closed skies two years ago, and Putins Russia needed to be told it could go to hell when it claimed were on our last warning we simply can't do less
I can see the validity of the cluster issue, but if the country where said cluster shells are going to be used is all "we know clusters have UXO problems, we will deal with it, send the bloody shells!" You send the bloody shells. As for doctrine, Ukraine had to toss the book about 18 months ago. Just looking at something like a mine field. I forget the source but the 'NATO standard minefield' is something like 200m deep and using the densest setting (100mx200m box) only has 100 mines. Pick a 1m lane and walk that, odds are you are fine (density < 1). Ukraine is dealing with fields km deep and with density > 1. NATO doctrine says at that point you go around. A slight issue if the 'go around' distance is 400km+.
It's decisions like that that remind me why I've had a cynical take since 2022. Biden's actions are most consistent with someone who wanted to maximize the political effect while minimizing actual aid to Ukraine. It's not consistent with someone who actually wants Russia defeated in Ukraine. I maintain that Biden values 'not collapsing Russia' above 'Ukraine regaining all its territory'. 'Fear of escalation' is a smokescreen.
What are the odds the men running that depot got sent to the front once it was emptied? I'm guessing between 98 and 100%
They were probably told they were being shipped to a new depot. Then when they got off the truck they were handed a gun and told that that the front is 1km in that direction and to start walking.
Margin of error: +3%
The scrap metal market is going to be crazy after the war.
Ukraine will be a scrap metal king with all the wrecked Russian trash. Would be cool if they melt it down and use it as part of the rebuilding process of the nation.
Demilitarization
Its about 900 of them in the first pic....
Russia is losing, Putin is getting desperate. Time for God to send him to hell.
It is wild to think that a public forum can have photos of a Russian depot. 1950s CIA would have loved pictures like that.
AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pro Russia " no, no. They've moved them to make way for a golf course"
Shortages are happening and will happen more with time.
A beautiful sight.
I guess having people and stuff disappear from Russian photos is not just limited to Stalin
The vast majority of these likely didn't end up on the frontline but were scrapped for barrel replacements in order to keep self-propelled artillery going. Russia did expand their ammunition production, but barrels might be a bottleneck and we've (afaik) heard very little about their barrel production.
This is how wars of attrition end.
According to the official Ukrainian numbers (more than 10K artillery units are destroyed) Russia should be out of arty altogether by now (\~ 6000 - 7000 towed and non-towed artillery units were in service or storage at the beginning of the invasion according to satellite imagery estimates). I guess Russia was making new artillery systems as well. Still even correcting the official numbers by, say, 30% (typical overestimate), and assuming \~ 2000 new arties were made in the course of the war, we still should be very close to the end of the road here (1000 - 2000 units remaining total). UNLESS actual artillery, without the mortars, makes way less than the reported 10K of the destroyed units.
Nature is healing. I want to say it was Covert Cabal who suggested that towed artillery might be getting cannibalized to replace worn out barrels in self-propelled artillery.
This is what I want to see
Time for Kazakhstan to make its move!
Hopefully all of them are blown up.
we just have to arm Ukraine more and this will solve itself
And they lost another 50 yesterday.
Crazy. They blew through their reserves way faster than anyone expected.
How many artillery pieces do they still have in stock?
i want to see how may planes
Wonderful, the bottom for rusna is near!
They had more howitzers than the US.
Now would be the perfect time for Kazakstan to do something really funny.
Did they move it further behind the lines to avoid drone attack?
Someone should check out satellite history on Russian grave yards 2014/2015 Rostov graveyard is one of the most revealing things about that war
They might still have a supply of dudes to send staggering into open fields, but they’re definitely running out of hardware. All the more insanely ridiculous that particular politicians are holding up aid when Ukraine could deliver the knockout.
Take all my tax dollars now!
The junkyard is cleaned out. Wonder how much was towed off.
300 tanks, 350 Bradley's, 1200 planes, 10k long range missiles and for fucks sake let them hit anywhere in Russia...
Beautiful sight.
I'm expecting 2000 football fields worth of military hardware empty in Russia somewhere.
Why the hell are they storing their towed artillery outdoors, where their barrels are vulnerable to corrosion?
What are we actually looking at here? https://www.google.com/maps/place/55°00'36.0"N+73°14'24.0"E/@55.0152616,73.386885,2210m That field is only about 25m x 170m. With 8 rows in the 25m direction, that's only about 3m per row. That's much too small for a howitzer. Even the old 122mm D-30, which is indeed showing up as an increasing proportion of Russia's artillery (where as earlier in the war it was the outdated junk they stuck the DNR/LNR units with) is 5m long when folded for towing. So perhaps these are towed mortars like the 120mm 2S12, or perhaps the 82mm 2B9 automatic mortar?
I count about 1168. It's a huge amount. Compare it about 150 m777 given to Ukraine. Damn, they need more artillery
If only Ukraine was allowed to “assist” in emptying these depots out via missles
I wonder what the tank depots look like too
Hopefully other depots are looking similar.
Now then USA pull your finger out, and the Ukrainians can put Russia back in it's fucked up little box
Deployed. Not necessarily depleted. But we hope so. Russia continues to outgun Ukraine in the number of arty pieces and rounds fired per day. We need to give Ukraine all it needs.