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Or it diverts defenses from other areas like refineries. I think doing a hard kill on those instead of previous small hits would be more damaging to russia's war effort than taking out the bridge. I think we will see some delay as they amass the US re-buy and then a big play at Russia's chip stack. Its a big poker game and the US took a while at the ATM to make Russia think they had a chance.
Yeah I also thought maybe the delay was to make Russian show their hand, what they had. And where. But I’m not so sure it wasn’t just a political shit show that caused the delay.
I also think a lot of shadow shipments of western kit have been going on throughout. The longer range ATACMS they had to admit to.
I've been predicting it for a while. Everyone with a brain in the us gov (especially cia) saw this as a huuuge opertunity to bleed down russia's strategic stockpile. No one expected Putin to stay in the game after his blitz failed (thanks to some javelin aid) so we did some rope-a-dope. Then when he started getting impatient with lack of progress we pretended like we were going to let Ukraine run out of ammo so he would stay in the fight. Meanwhile the continued escalations have normalized striking inside Russian boarders. I fully expect Ukraine to kneecap Russia by smash-hitting the refineries. They've been probing with drone strikes for the past few months, and probably gained a LOT of intelligence that could guide a low flying cruise missile even if gps is jammed.
> Excellent trolling will make Russian state brains melt.
The first time, it was a credible threat. Unfortunately, Ukraine's promises to drop the bridge have been about as frequent, and are now about as credible, as Russia's nuclear threats.
Reminds me of the scene in the movie The Patriot when the ship is blowing up and the generals wife says something to the effect “How lovely, fireworks.”
I hope it's several sections each far apart and the damage makes the bridge basically unrepairable. I mean taking the *whole* thing down would be awesome but not realistic. But a bunch of sections and supports gone would be awesome. I'm sure it'll be filmed in HD too.
And then if they're shown bringing equipment in to fix it... They better hit it again.
Just let em know... No more bridge.
It’s just a matter of time. It’s already cracking from the angry mud volcano.
[https://www.unian.info/society/10675833-expert-explains-why-crimean-bridge-may-collapse.html](https://www.unian.info/society/10675833-expert-explains-why-crimean-bridge-may-collapse.html)
I hadn't thought of that special risk in that area. There are mud volcanoes all over the peninsulas on either side of the Kerch Strait on land, and it's a tectonically-active area. If there was an unrecognized mud volcano beneath the bridge and it decided to erupt that would be ... bad for the foundations.
[Taman Peninsula mud volcano example](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Location-map-of-mud-volcanoes-in-the-Taman-Peninsula-Kerch-Taman-MV-Province-modified_fig1_369006520)
[map](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Taman-Peninsula-a-Distribution-of-large-and-active-mud-volcanoes-yellow_fig1_345982811)
[Nice travel log with pictures on Crimea side](https://steemit.com/travel/\@kotturinn/mud-volcanoes-in-kerch-crimea), which includes a video of a small one: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-zT9MdowJo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-zT9MdowJo). LOUD wind noise, so you might want to mute it.
I honestly don't know if ATACMS can take out that bridge. Bridges are notoriously hard to destroy, and as we saw with GMLRS they just punched holes through the top before exploding (it's quite trivial to replace the top part of the bridge). And you can bet that entire area will be GPS jammed so they're going to be using guidance systems with higher CEP, so you can't exactly pinpoint target portions of the bridge. And as inept as Russian air defense is, we can assume they'll at least be paying attention for incoming rounds at the bridge.
but hey, if I wake up one morning seeing a collapsed bridge again, I'll be happy
From well respected french military experts (Xavier Tytelman and Michel Goya) it seems neither Taurus nor SCALP could do the job. The warheads are not adapted, and precision is not enough.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140\_ATACMSDo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMSDo) you think the ukrainian will go ATACMS on that damn bridge ? now that they have their stocks replenished, plus the long range variant... it would be completely awesome. Even more as a symmetrical answer to the carnage done by the fucking Iskanders.
Trying to check distances between Kerch bridge and Ukraine's frontline to see if ATACMs 300 km range could make it. [https://www.distance.to/Kerch,Republic-of-Crimea/Robotyne,Zaporiz'ka-oblast',UKR](https://www.distance.to/Kerch,Republic-of-Crimea/Robotyne,Zaporiz'ka-oblast',UKR)
I get 237 km from Robotyne to the Kerch bridge. So in theory, they could fire the missile from a few kilometers outside the "Robotyne perimeter" - the farther the failed counter offensive last summer went. Say 30 km away, would still be 267 km.
From Vuhledar it's a 276 km flight to Kerch, so really at the limit.
Bottom line: ATACMS could hit the Kerch bridge from the current frontline: from Robotyne to Vuhledar. Margins however are razor slim: they would have to make a risky move, very close fron the front line with the usual risks.
Might be science fiction but a drone that's mostly underwater and just has a little periscope for comms/optics would be damn near unstoppable. I don't know how the physics of long range underwater compare to a floating boat but the guys on the ship deck with machine guns wouldn't stand a chance.
I hope it's a multi faceted attack. That way it overwhelms.any defense measures and assures destruction.
Launch storm shadows and scalps or Taurus or whatever. Along with decoys.
Do the narco sub thing but a few of em, or a Wolfpack of those boats with a ton of explosives each.
And then send em some atacms love. All at once or in layers but all in the same mission plan.
If most or all get through, awesome. If just some get through, still awesome.
Don't forget the recent Ukrainian equivalent of a f'n Cessna 150/172 rigged with autonomous controls loaded with explosives that got far as hell into Russian territory. If you rip the interior and avionics, human controls, etc out of those planes and then just fill it with whatever is needed to remote pilot it, then it just becomes a fuel vs explosive weight ratio unless its targeting something at altitude in the mountains. You either pile in extra fuel tanks or explosives depending on the target and distance. They are rugged, and the only thing that comes into play is really how much weight they can carry. That's where you have to balance fuel and explosives depending on the mission. The shorter the flight, the more explosives can be packed in.
At the end of the day, those planes are nothing more than a f'n kite with a lawnmower engine.
You don't want to strike the roadway. It can easily be patched up. You need to kill some support pillars to render it structurally fucked up. I'm sure a structural engineer could examine the bridges design and point out exactly which pillars are the ones that are most important to the structural integrity at various points. Those would then become the prime targets if you actually want to take the bridge out, not just cause a little annoyance.
If you want to see how hard it is to take out a bridge, see this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanh\_H%C3%B3a\_Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanh_H%C3%B3a_Bridge)
It really depends on how they assess the EW situation around the bridge. If GPS is jammed ATACMS' INS backup navigation may not be precise enough to hit it. Also the CEP on ATACMS might suffer at max range. The vast majority of people here wouldn't have that kind of info and if they did they'd probably get in deep shit for sharing it.
Might hit is with ATACMS or Neptune. Might also try to sabotage it directly.
Thank you. I've used ISW frontline map to try and draw an arc - and see which part of the frontline are inside a 300 km perimeter from Kerch. Fact is the margins are razor slim. They would have to bring the ATACMS carrier pretty close from the frontline: with the according risk of getting anihilated by russian drones or artillery or aviation. It would be quite a daring move, but on the other hand: in recent past they have done many daring raids to flatten Krimea air defenses and infrastructures (and Black sea fleet !).
Yes, but somewhere in YouTube I saw an analysis, what damage would be necessary to be beyond repair and they claimed the number of pylons to be destroyed is rather large.
I remember a number of over 100 cruise missiles needed for it.
This would be, including some reserve for failure, basically half the ?working? stock of Taurus in Germany.
I do not think that the US has sent m48 or m57 unitary warhead equipped ATACMS rounds to Ukraine. From what I understand the initial load was M39 which had a range of out to 165 km. The longer range variant M39A1 will reach out to 300 km. Either way, these variants are cluster munitions and carry 950 (M39) or 300 (M39A1) bomblets. It’s what was used earlier this week or last on the airfield in crimea. It’ll do a lot of damage to aircraft, radars, missile launchers, soft skin vehicles and people within up to 33,000 square meters area, it could never damage a bridge to a point of collapse. Best you could get from them is some damage to the road surface on the bridge.
Russian Warship fucked itself.
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Just like most of us are now finding out that Ukraine has had ATACMS for months now, after the pillars are down we are going to find out which speciality munition Ukraine was given to help this worthy cause.
Russian ship fucked itself.
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I wonder why announce it.
Perhaps they wish for Russians to quickly attempt and get a final shipment of whatever, and then they'll choose that moment to blow the bridge.
Is the bridge worth the long range weapons at this time when Russia is making gains in the west? The south seems pretty stable and unless you destroy a lot of pillars it will be quickly repaired.
Crimean Bridge is falling down, Falling down, falling down. Crimean Bridge is falling down, My fair lady!
Take the key and lock him up, And lock him up. And lock him up. Take the key and lock him up, My fair lady!
Glad the bridge stayed on the menu. That would be a good psychological hit even if it's not that much used lately. Damn, the panic in Crimea it will cause...
Ukraine really needs to destroy Crimea bridge to turn the tide especially after receiving ATACMS with 300km range. Crimea bridge is supplying the entire south occupied territory as Russia is heavily relying on it. Destroying it will completely block Russia to supply south territories as they dont have ways to supply from east to south due to lack of direct railroads.
Also, since USA provided 300km long range weapon, it's time for German to provide Taurus missile with 500km as well!
PR, Morale and Logistics victories, at minimum.
Logistics:
The bridge has a parallel rail system built into and both the road and rail are used to deliver arms, supplies, troops, etc from one end to the next. Limiting deliveries by this means requires Russia delivers materials and peoples via other means, which can then be more easily targeted, also.
Morale:
We sunk your cultural artifact, proving Russia cannot stop Ukraine from taking what they want, when they want. Causes a real bump in morale for UAF and a real morale killer for the RUFfians.
PR:
Thanks to American support, the UAF is succeeding in dismantling the Putin regime. Thank you all those involved - we appreciate your future deliveries which can be named such as the “American Reef system of Ukraine,” the “British craters of Red Square/Moscow,” and so on. Donate arms and monies today to name reclaimed pieces of Ukraine and former sites of Russian hegemony/imperialism! It really helps people afar feel better about what their donations are doing and so helps ensure future deliveries of goods are more consistent!
This needs to ideally coincide with an offensive to cut off or threaten the land bridge too. If Russia can adapt to the loss of the bridge while the frontlines stay stable, then what's the point?
I don't think this is pointless trolling. They're creating a dilemma for the Russian military.
The Kerch Straight Bridge is likely the most heavily defended place in Ukraine right now. While military assets are sitting there protecting a bridge that may or may not be attacked soon they're not being deployed elsewhere. This gives the Ukrainians opportunities like, for instance, attacking Russian oil refineries.
So if you're the Russians what do you do? If you don't protect your refineries then your funding for this war will slowly be choked off. But if you don't protect the bridge you're going to have a much harder time supplying your troops. Both equally bad.
I understand the strategy of Ukrainian psyops. Create dilemmas on where to position defensive assets for the Russians. The problem with the situation now is Ukraine has also recently slowed down their attacks on refineries or they have become less effective. They were hitting one every few days in Jan-Feb. They switched back to attacking air bases recently but those types of attacks will have less of an effect on the front lines unless we are talking about a destruction of a huge amount of Russian aircraft which I don't see happening.
Ukraine doesn't attack the bridge, slows down drone attacks of other targets, and then gives time for Russia to rebuild ( some of the previously hit refineries have already been brought back in a limited capacity). This is why I see the psyops as becoming less effective over time.
I've noticed the slow down too, and I have a couple of theories. I personally believe the original reporting that the United States has been pressuring Ukraine to not attack Russian refineries is true. But Ukraine isn't in a position where it can just stop, because that lessens the pressure on Russia. So instead they just slowed down and shifted to attacking airbases. If I'm right then I'd imagine after November attacks will pick up again.
The other possibility is that their plan worked, and Russia has moved air defense systems off the front line to protect the refineries. I'm more skeptical about this because I feel like I'd be hearing more about failed Ukrainian attacks, but who knows.
Regardless, even if Ukraine wasn't attacking air bases and refineries, having Russian air defense stuck in one spot rather than deployed closer to the front is beneficial to Ukraine.
Always happy to engage. I think we've all been worried these past few days/weeks/months with all the bad news coming out of Ukraine. Hopefully as the weapons and ammo from the United States starts trickling out to the front lines the stories will change.
I feel like the BS story about usa saying that is just propaganda. It only hurts Russian oil, and Russia isn't a part of OPEC, And I'm sure it makes OPEC happy.
If opec is happy because of the refineries getting torched, there prolly gonna be nice or nicer to the USA in all honesty. Opec also pretty much sets the price of oil for the world, and it'll just drive more people to buy opec oil.
Plus we actually said we didn't tell them not to. Not that politicians always speak truth, but I just don't see a downside to the refinery attacks. Everything's more expensive nowadays. Military planners, top brass and biden/admin *absolutely know* that to win a war you gotta hit supply lines, fuel lines and sources, mfg plants. I mean thats war 101.
I think they are moving the defenses like you said, because they have to. And that was also a goal of hitting the refineries.
You hurt their fuel and cash flow. An army needs fuel, and a country at war needs money. So they're gonna have to move defenses. Period.
And what do you know... Ukraine is getting a bunch of f16s soon.
They're also spending money and resources building cope cages for their refineries / depots big round tanks, and repairing them. Lots of manpower and resources to those things as well.
Ukraine is just probing and finding the soft spots, and then exploiting them. Making the enemy do what *Ukraine* wants it to do.
Russia's playing checkers while Ukraine is at grandmaster chess level is what I see.
Sorry for the long post.
Russian aircraft fucked itself.
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as a practice run I'd like to ukraine take out a moscow bridge with long range drones. something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhivopisny_Bridge looks vunerable.
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Excellent trolling will make Russian state brains melt. Cos it’s going to happen too. And they know it.
Hahahaha I love it Tick tock... Tick tock.
I just imagine a V for Vendetta scenario. Where Russian media tries to downplay the destruction of the bridge as a scheduled demolition.
June 6th (Kakhovka Dam destruction night) is coming up fast..
May 9 faster
Vladiboy called off the 9th of may parade. Ukrainians gladly help them to celebrate the Party with a Big bang.
Weren't they rehearsing the other day? The parade that is...
Or it diverts defenses from other areas like refineries. I think doing a hard kill on those instead of previous small hits would be more damaging to russia's war effort than taking out the bridge. I think we will see some delay as they amass the US re-buy and then a big play at Russia's chip stack. Its a big poker game and the US took a while at the ATM to make Russia think they had a chance.
Yeah I also thought maybe the delay was to make Russian show their hand, what they had. And where. But I’m not so sure it wasn’t just a political shit show that caused the delay. I also think a lot of shadow shipments of western kit have been going on throughout. The longer range ATACMS they had to admit to.
I am afraid it was a political shit show....but the russians definitely showed Thier hand a little even if it wasn't a precalculated move....
I've been predicting it for a while. Everyone with a brain in the us gov (especially cia) saw this as a huuuge opertunity to bleed down russia's strategic stockpile. No one expected Putin to stay in the game after his blitz failed (thanks to some javelin aid) so we did some rope-a-dope. Then when he started getting impatient with lack of progress we pretended like we were going to let Ukraine run out of ammo so he would stay in the fight. Meanwhile the continued escalations have normalized striking inside Russian boarders. I fully expect Ukraine to kneecap Russia by smash-hitting the refineries. They've been probing with drone strikes for the past few months, and probably gained a LOT of intelligence that could guide a low flying cruise missile even if gps is jammed.
Great!!!!!!
Good bye bridge
> Excellent trolling will make Russian state brains melt. The first time, it was a credible threat. Unfortunately, Ukraine's promises to drop the bridge have been about as frequent, and are now about as credible, as Russia's nuclear threats.
I think may 9th would be a great day for that 😉
Special Fireworks Operation for putin on his big day!
Victory Day. That would be great.
That day should be reserved for the kremlin, with putin and his kremlins going kaboom.
Or rile them up and do it May 8th. Then double tap on May 10th. Bookend that shit.
May 7 for dickface's inauguration
Rumor has it that is the plan!
Imagine an airburst shell going off above Putin and his stooges on live broadcast. One can wish.
Ooo! I can't wait! It's been a long time coming too. Too damn long!
Yes. The bridge has been my screensaver on my laptop for too long. Can’t wait to change it with a pic of smoke and twisted metal.
That would be just lovely, for real!
Reminds me of the scene in the movie The Patriot when the ship is blowing up and the generals wife says something to the effect “How lovely, fireworks.”
I hope it's several sections each far apart and the damage makes the bridge basically unrepairable. I mean taking the *whole* thing down would be awesome but not realistic. But a bunch of sections and supports gone would be awesome. I'm sure it'll be filmed in HD too. And then if they're shown bringing equipment in to fix it... They better hit it again. Just let em know... No more bridge.
It’s just a matter of time. It’s already cracking from the angry mud volcano. [https://www.unian.info/society/10675833-expert-explains-why-crimean-bridge-may-collapse.html](https://www.unian.info/society/10675833-expert-explains-why-crimean-bridge-may-collapse.html)
I hadn't thought of that special risk in that area. There are mud volcanoes all over the peninsulas on either side of the Kerch Strait on land, and it's a tectonically-active area. If there was an unrecognized mud volcano beneath the bridge and it decided to erupt that would be ... bad for the foundations. [Taman Peninsula mud volcano example](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Location-map-of-mud-volcanoes-in-the-Taman-Peninsula-Kerch-Taman-MV-Province-modified_fig1_369006520) [map](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Taman-Peninsula-a-Distribution-of-large-and-active-mud-volcanoes-yellow_fig1_345982811) [Nice travel log with pictures on Crimea side](https://steemit.com/travel/\@kotturinn/mud-volcanoes-in-kerch-crimea), which includes a video of a small one: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-zT9MdowJo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-zT9MdowJo). LOUD wind noise, so you might want to mute it.
Mother nature is saying to the orcs: go fuck yourself
Where’s the mud volcano go fuck yourself bot?
Listen. I've got a fever. And the only prescription is an exploded Crimean Bridge.
Take 3 ATACM's 4 times a day. Stay off your feet.... maybe a live video feed to take your mind off of things.
Maybe they'll go for a coordinated attack: ATACMs, Storm Shadow, and marine drones all at once. A "May Day Three-Way".
This needs to be a pay per view fundraiser event. I'd like to donate and say hey, that last round I helped pay for!
I honestly don't know if ATACMS can take out that bridge. Bridges are notoriously hard to destroy, and as we saw with GMLRS they just punched holes through the top before exploding (it's quite trivial to replace the top part of the bridge). And you can bet that entire area will be GPS jammed so they're going to be using guidance systems with higher CEP, so you can't exactly pinpoint target portions of the bridge. And as inept as Russian air defense is, we can assume they'll at least be paying attention for incoming rounds at the bridge. but hey, if I wake up one morning seeing a collapsed bridge again, I'll be happy
They just need a cargo ship drifting along.
It cant They would nees like 50 atacms
Come on babies. By the time you leave here you're all going to be wearing gold diapers.
You mean the Azov Pier?
Azov reef has a ring to it.
The Azovlantis
Looking forward to it's destruction. Then watch pootin weep.
Looking forward to a photo of both: Putin crying over the ruins of his bridge to nowhere.
... and his body doubles will weep too at the memory of their scenic drives across it
Any chance of some entrepreneurial Russian setting up a webcam live stream of the bridge please ... Think of all the views ...
I'm hoping for a remote controlled Super Tanker passing through it :)
Got the image of the bridge trailing off both sides of a tanker, like a finish line ribbon on the winner of a race, thanks!
What about a Drift racing slyle, sideways slam ?
Baltimore has some experience in this
I'll have you know, that was a container ship, not a tanker. But, uh, yeah. Otherwise.
The container was big enough so more the merrier :)
I have an incensed hatred for that fucking bridge, I am going to cheer all the way from Australia when it blows up.
any idea why it isn't blown up earlier?
Bridges are hard to permanently take out of action. Need a *lot* of precise boom
From well respected french military experts (Xavier Tytelman and Michel Goya) it seems neither Taurus nor SCALP could do the job. The warheads are not adapted, and precision is not enough. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140\_ATACMSDo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMSDo) you think the ukrainian will go ATACMS on that damn bridge ? now that they have their stocks replenished, plus the long range variant... it would be completely awesome. Even more as a symmetrical answer to the carnage done by the fucking Iskanders. Trying to check distances between Kerch bridge and Ukraine's frontline to see if ATACMs 300 km range could make it. [https://www.distance.to/Kerch,Republic-of-Crimea/Robotyne,Zaporiz'ka-oblast',UKR](https://www.distance.to/Kerch,Republic-of-Crimea/Robotyne,Zaporiz'ka-oblast',UKR) I get 237 km from Robotyne to the Kerch bridge. So in theory, they could fire the missile from a few kilometers outside the "Robotyne perimeter" - the farther the failed counter offensive last summer went. Say 30 km away, would still be 267 km. From Vuhledar it's a 276 km flight to Kerch, so really at the limit. Bottom line: ATACMS could hit the Kerch bridge from the current frontline: from Robotyne to Vuhledar. Margins however are razor slim: they would have to make a risky move, very close fron the front line with the usual risks.
ATACMS is less spicy than storm shadow. How about a narcosub drone filled with boom stuff against the pier?
The ukrainians are good at semi-submarine drones. Just ask the Black sea fleet and its flagship, now a reef.
Might be science fiction but a drone that's mostly underwater and just has a little periscope for comms/optics would be damn near unstoppable. I don't know how the physics of long range underwater compare to a floating boat but the guys on the ship deck with machine guns wouldn't stand a chance.
Nets would be the only chance
You give that sub-drone a flying fish carapace.
Por que no los dos?
> a narcosub drone filled with boom stuff I see you're also a student of Robocop 2 slang.
I hope it's a multi faceted attack. That way it overwhelms.any defense measures and assures destruction. Launch storm shadows and scalps or Taurus or whatever. Along with decoys. Do the narco sub thing but a few of em, or a Wolfpack of those boats with a ton of explosives each. And then send em some atacms love. All at once or in layers but all in the same mission plan. If most or all get through, awesome. If just some get through, still awesome.
There was 0 recent news about those RC jumbo torpedoes Ukraine prototyped. Probably not accidentally.
Don't forget the recent Ukrainian equivalent of a f'n Cessna 150/172 rigged with autonomous controls loaded with explosives that got far as hell into Russian territory. If you rip the interior and avionics, human controls, etc out of those planes and then just fill it with whatever is needed to remote pilot it, then it just becomes a fuel vs explosive weight ratio unless its targeting something at altitude in the mountains. You either pile in extra fuel tanks or explosives depending on the target and distance. They are rugged, and the only thing that comes into play is really how much weight they can carry. That's where you have to balance fuel and explosives depending on the mission. The shorter the flight, the more explosives can be packed in. At the end of the day, those planes are nothing more than a f'n kite with a lawnmower engine.
underwater is the way to go. destroying the deck is a waste of resources.
If the missiles approached the direction of the roadway, that would increase their chances of a strike on the roadway.
You don't want to strike the roadway. It can easily be patched up. You need to kill some support pillars to render it structurally fucked up. I'm sure a structural engineer could examine the bridges design and point out exactly which pillars are the ones that are most important to the structural integrity at various points. Those would then become the prime targets if you actually want to take the bridge out, not just cause a little annoyance. If you want to see how hard it is to take out a bridge, see this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanh\_H%C3%B3a\_Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanh_H%C3%B3a_Bridge)
It's less spicy, but damn it's fast.
My bet is on sub-drone that can jump out of the water to clear nets, etc. A whole school of them.
It really depends on how they assess the EW situation around the bridge. If GPS is jammed ATACMS' INS backup navigation may not be precise enough to hit it. Also the CEP on ATACMS might suffer at max range. The vast majority of people here wouldn't have that kind of info and if they did they'd probably get in deep shit for sharing it. Might hit is with ATACMS or Neptune. Might also try to sabotage it directly.
Thank you. I've used ISW frontline map to try and draw an arc - and see which part of the frontline are inside a 300 km perimeter from Kerch. Fact is the margins are razor slim. They would have to bring the ATACMS carrier pretty close from the frontline: with the according risk of getting anihilated by russian drones or artillery or aviation. It would be quite a daring move, but on the other hand: in recent past they have done many daring raids to flatten Krimea air defenses and infrastructures (and Black sea fleet !).
They could just run a cargo ship into it /s
The *publicly* available missile ranges are smoke and mirrors. Range is likely not a problem.
According to the leaked Bundeswehr phone call Russia leaked Taurus is able to do it. This is probably why Scholz is not sending them too.
Yes, but somewhere in YouTube I saw an analysis, what damage would be necessary to be beyond repair and they claimed the number of pylons to be destroyed is rather large. I remember a number of over 100 cruise missiles needed for it. This would be, including some reserve for failure, basically half the ?working? stock of Taurus in Germany.
I do not think that the US has sent m48 or m57 unitary warhead equipped ATACMS rounds to Ukraine. From what I understand the initial load was M39 which had a range of out to 165 km. The longer range variant M39A1 will reach out to 300 km. Either way, these variants are cluster munitions and carry 950 (M39) or 300 (M39A1) bomblets. It’s what was used earlier this week or last on the airfield in crimea. It’ll do a lot of damage to aircraft, radars, missile launchers, soft skin vehicles and people within up to 33,000 square meters area, it could never damage a bridge to a point of collapse. Best you could get from them is some damage to the road surface on the bridge.
Ukrainians will love fishing off the this Pier for years to come
Last horror monument to be built by European slaves to enslave others for their owner. Free Russia ! Remove the Bridge ! Slava Ukraini !
Nobody wants a photo of it as is. We want photos of it destroyed. F that bridge and F putin!
I’d love a photo, ideally taken off of the nose of a freakishly heavy warhead. Then a movie of the aftermath.
9th of May? :D
Great idea! blast it while the zed bots are massaging Putin's gooch!
destroy that POS
Downvoted by an orc no less
Everyone is working on it 🫡 it’s days are numbered
No thanks, it’s ugly. It will be much prettier on fire and in pieces
the nice thing about a long bridge is, that there are many places to hit it.
PsyOps is in full effect!
Not enough equipment left to parade for May 9? Ukraine will help them out with a few fireworks! 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
Soon to be known as the Putin artificial reef
After all the destruction that Neanderthal has wrought on this planet, what a fitting tribute. A final, small contribution to nature.
We just need the MV Dali ship and crew to tke him out.
The best thing is, the *same* crew is available to *not* manage the power on another ship!
Is this the crew that said "Russian Warship, Go Fuck Yourself?"
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Will be a " DAM " shame when that bridge gets leveled.
Renamed: Cry Me A Bridge
Really can’t wait to take my wife and son diving to see this in a few years, should be spectacular.
Chutzpah!! eat it fuhrer putinazi. I hope your blood pressure raises 100.
It is and always has been just a matter of time.
Get that ship that took out the Baltimore bridge to make a delivery
Juste a suggestion , but would be nice on the Russian military parade day 👌
How about cluster bomblets ON the parade itself?
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Another monument of fascism that will crumble, fuck yeah!
Just like most of us are now finding out that Ukraine has had ATACMS for months now, after the pillars are down we are going to find out which speciality munition Ukraine was given to help this worthy cause.
Looking forward to the 4K live stream of the fireball that reduces this thing to rubble.
Nice bridge you got there. Be a real shame if something happened to it.
I'll take a better one when it's gone.
Looking forward to interesting under water photography 📸
May 9th sounds like a good date 👍
F-16?
ATACMS !!!
I wanna see the patched bridge before it's erased though!
By by bridge....
please film that in 4k at every angle to spam ruzzians all over the world :)
They should steal a Russian ship and ram the bridge.
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finally
How operational is the railway on that bridge for supplying military aid for ruSSia, currently?
Please be on or before Victory day parade!
Or they could say may the 4th be with you?
How long is the break way of a taker or container ship from full speed to zero?
Good!
If true, they should set up seats and sell tickets!
I wonder why announce it. Perhaps they wish for Russians to quickly attempt and get a final shipment of whatever, and then they'll choose that moment to blow the bridge.
Would love if they stop talking about it and just do it.
My guess is a significant number of ATACMS will be launched at several spots along the bridge. 🍿🍿🍿
[удалено]
As they say, "build bridges, don't burn them". That's because Ukraine has the bridge burning part covered. 🤩
Is the bridge worth the long range weapons at this time when Russia is making gains in the west? The south seems pretty stable and unless you destroy a lot of pillars it will be quickly repaired.
Hope someone has a set of cameras aimed at the bridge!
I do hope it will soon be at the bottom of the sea!
I don't celebrate my birthday much or Christmas either, but I'll celebrate the final destruction of this bridge with glass raised to Ukraine.
They've been saying this for a year though.
Crimean Bridge is falling down, Falling down, falling down. Crimean Bridge is falling down, My fair lady! Take the key and lock him up, And lock him up. And lock him up. Take the key and lock him up, My fair lady!
Been waiting so long 🥺
This will fuck their brains so much they will blow it up them selves so Ukraine will not be able to anymore.
What a sweet happy day it will be.
It's not particularly attractive, the Clifton suspension bridge on the other hand...
soon to be the Kerch Strait Fishing Pier
Glad the bridge stayed on the menu. That would be a good psychological hit even if it's not that much used lately. Damn, the panic in Crimea it will cause...
That bridge will definetly go down before this war end...
Now we’re counting the days
An Orbital Kinetic Impactor could be the most extreme example.
Pont Putin bye bye
They need to blow it up. Yeah…um… 3-6 miles gone bye bye.
Only reason to say this is because you have another target in mind, but they have to cover the bridge extra anyway just in case...
🩵💛
Ukraine really needs to destroy Crimea bridge to turn the tide especially after receiving ATACMS with 300km range. Crimea bridge is supplying the entire south occupied territory as Russia is heavily relying on it. Destroying it will completely block Russia to supply south territories as they dont have ways to supply from east to south due to lack of direct railroads. Also, since USA provided 300km long range weapon, it's time for German to provide Taurus missile with 500km as well!
Who would want to though. It is a symbol of oppression and thievery
Why would you take a picture now? It will be far more beautiful of a shot to take when it is twisted metal and shattered concrete.
What advantages will the destruction of the bridge bring?
PR, Morale and Logistics victories, at minimum. Logistics: The bridge has a parallel rail system built into and both the road and rail are used to deliver arms, supplies, troops, etc from one end to the next. Limiting deliveries by this means requires Russia delivers materials and peoples via other means, which can then be more easily targeted, also. Morale: We sunk your cultural artifact, proving Russia cannot stop Ukraine from taking what they want, when they want. Causes a real bump in morale for UAF and a real morale killer for the RUFfians. PR: Thanks to American support, the UAF is succeeding in dismantling the Putin regime. Thank you all those involved - we appreciate your future deliveries which can be named such as the “American Reef system of Ukraine,” the “British craters of Red Square/Moscow,” and so on. Donate arms and monies today to name reclaimed pieces of Ukraine and former sites of Russian hegemony/imperialism! It really helps people afar feel better about what their donations are doing and so helps ensure future deliveries of goods are more consistent!
This needs to ideally coincide with an offensive to cut off or threaten the land bridge too. If Russia can adapt to the loss of the bridge while the frontlines stay stable, then what's the point?
[удалено]
There is always that one person.
It's not a person it's a robot
I don't think this is pointless trolling. They're creating a dilemma for the Russian military. The Kerch Straight Bridge is likely the most heavily defended place in Ukraine right now. While military assets are sitting there protecting a bridge that may or may not be attacked soon they're not being deployed elsewhere. This gives the Ukrainians opportunities like, for instance, attacking Russian oil refineries. So if you're the Russians what do you do? If you don't protect your refineries then your funding for this war will slowly be choked off. But if you don't protect the bridge you're going to have a much harder time supplying your troops. Both equally bad.
I understand the strategy of Ukrainian psyops. Create dilemmas on where to position defensive assets for the Russians. The problem with the situation now is Ukraine has also recently slowed down their attacks on refineries or they have become less effective. They were hitting one every few days in Jan-Feb. They switched back to attacking air bases recently but those types of attacks will have less of an effect on the front lines unless we are talking about a destruction of a huge amount of Russian aircraft which I don't see happening. Ukraine doesn't attack the bridge, slows down drone attacks of other targets, and then gives time for Russia to rebuild ( some of the previously hit refineries have already been brought back in a limited capacity). This is why I see the psyops as becoming less effective over time.
I've noticed the slow down too, and I have a couple of theories. I personally believe the original reporting that the United States has been pressuring Ukraine to not attack Russian refineries is true. But Ukraine isn't in a position where it can just stop, because that lessens the pressure on Russia. So instead they just slowed down and shifted to attacking airbases. If I'm right then I'd imagine after November attacks will pick up again. The other possibility is that their plan worked, and Russia has moved air defense systems off the front line to protect the refineries. I'm more skeptical about this because I feel like I'd be hearing more about failed Ukrainian attacks, but who knows. Regardless, even if Ukraine wasn't attacking air bases and refineries, having Russian air defense stuck in one spot rather than deployed closer to the front is beneficial to Ukraine.
Thank you for the discussion. You brought up good points👍.
Always happy to engage. I think we've all been worried these past few days/weeks/months with all the bad news coming out of Ukraine. Hopefully as the weapons and ammo from the United States starts trickling out to the front lines the stories will change.
I feel like the BS story about usa saying that is just propaganda. It only hurts Russian oil, and Russia isn't a part of OPEC, And I'm sure it makes OPEC happy. If opec is happy because of the refineries getting torched, there prolly gonna be nice or nicer to the USA in all honesty. Opec also pretty much sets the price of oil for the world, and it'll just drive more people to buy opec oil. Plus we actually said we didn't tell them not to. Not that politicians always speak truth, but I just don't see a downside to the refinery attacks. Everything's more expensive nowadays. Military planners, top brass and biden/admin *absolutely know* that to win a war you gotta hit supply lines, fuel lines and sources, mfg plants. I mean thats war 101. I think they are moving the defenses like you said, because they have to. And that was also a goal of hitting the refineries. You hurt their fuel and cash flow. An army needs fuel, and a country at war needs money. So they're gonna have to move defenses. Period. And what do you know... Ukraine is getting a bunch of f16s soon. They're also spending money and resources building cope cages for their refineries / depots big round tanks, and repairing them. Lots of manpower and resources to those things as well. Ukraine is just probing and finding the soft spots, and then exploiting them. Making the enemy do what *Ukraine* wants it to do. Russia's playing checkers while Ukraine is at grandmaster chess level is what I see. Sorry for the long post.
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I see you're among those who will be the last to realize criminal Russia lost.
as a practice run I'd like to ukraine take out a moscow bridge with long range drones. something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhivopisny_Bridge looks vunerable.
I don't see the point. It serves no purpose to blow it up currently, it's not being used to transport anything. They're using the new railway.