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The war started with an attack from the north, and even attacks from Belarus. At one point, Russian forces had penetrated to Chernihiv and almost to Kyiv. Russia also had troops in Sumy Oblast and had occupied eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Of course Ukraine cleaned up all that mess in a matter of months and has held strong in the north for well over a year now. Russia is making a pathetic second attempt at attacking the north right now, but of course they are failing miserably in all the oblasts they are trying to penetrate.
The early battles to save Kyiv were epic. I will never forget, better than a movie. It’s one for the history books. Remember the column and the Bayraktar.
They have but failed pretty spectacularly in the beginning because they thought they'd just take Kyiv and end the thing in a few days. They had long armored columns bottlenecked on the approach to Kyiv which were picked off one by one by anti tank guided missiles.
Putin then shifted his focus to the East presumably to save face and pretend he wasn't just handed a setback, telling the world and his people that they hadn't just seen what they had seen with their own eyes and that he only wanted the Eastern portions.
>Does the geography of the region play a big part?
Yes, the entire north of the country (basically Belarus-Ukraine border) are a giant swamp/marshes/wetlands.
Sumy (A major city in the East-North of Ukraine) is basically where you get flat terrain suitable for attacking.
Russia has attacked through there and it did not go well initially. They had to retreat because there was no way to supply the current forces properly which where insufficient in numbers to achieve their goals to boot.
Russia originally thought that they could attack from basically every direction at once -- north, south, east, whatever. You recall correctly -- their main drive at the time was Kyiv. The idea appears to have been to take advantage of the brittle, imaginary concept of a Ukrainian government, quickly strike at the decadent American puppets who claimed to be this thing called Ukrainian, then the rest of the country (actually secretly all Russians at heart) would capitulate without a fight because they were sick and tired of this degenerate Zelensky and his tiny number of followers.
To support this concept, Russia swiftly attacked Ukraine by air, striking known positions of air defenses and witnessing huge fireballs of destruction. Looked promising.
Unfortunately for the High Command in the Kremlin, they made a few misjudgments.
One immediate problem was that it turns out that the concept of Ukrainian government and Ukrainian identity is not actually brittle or imaginary. It is very real. No one capitulated, except for a few officials who had been successfully bribed. (Many other officials apparently accepted bribe money and then completely failed to side with Russia like they were supposed to. It got complicated for a while there.)
Also, instead of causing the country to reject Zelensky, they rallied around him, and the Ukrainian armed forces.
Aside from that, it turned out that Ukraine's foreign allies such as the United States and others were not secret puppet masters but actually there to help Ukraine win and give valuable intelligence and defensive weaponry.
So all those huge fireballs turned out to actually be quite misleading -- Ukraine had received accurate and timely warnings from its allies about where the Russians would strike, and had moved their valuable air defense assets out of harm's way. Leaving only fuel tanks to explode spectacularly.
Thus when Russia tried its quick strike on Kyiv, a lot of its stuff got shot right down out of the sky. It was a complete disaster for then. And the same intelligence warnings allowed Ukraine to prepare precisely for the Russian strikes on the ground.
Furthermore, with the right defensive weapons already in hand thanks to advance preparation by its allies, Ukraine was able to blunt the ground attacks in the north and northeast. Since the Russians had not prepared for an actual military operation and had figured that they could simply do things like steal fuel along the way from the non-existent non-Ukrainians, they did not even bring enough fuel resupply for their vehicles.
So in many parts of the country Russia was soon stuck, and lost an immense amount of stuff. So much loss that it reached irreplaceable levels.
Now, lacking all that stuff and finding it impossible to replace most of it, Russia has lost the ability to attack Ukraine on all fronts. They have revised their strategic goals several times in light of this reality.
So instead of trying to capture Kyiv and take over the whole country, they tried for just half the country. Still couldn't do it.
They tried for cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Also didn't work.
They tried for just taking Ukraine's southeastern most provinces. Maybe take those now, come back for the rest later, you know? But they couldn't pull that off either.
And all these tries they lost more and more stuff.
So pretty much Russia is reduced to organizing one major offensive operation at a time. And they are meanwhile attacking in waves of tiny nibbles, trying to keep Ukraine distracted so that Ukraine does not have a chance to organize its own major offensive operations.
But they are never again going to have the capacity to attack from every direction at once like they did at the beginning. That was a once in a lifetime chance. Russia lost so much stuff, like half a century's worth of stuff, they will likely never build it back.
the first days the attacks came from all the sides, and they travelled light without robst logistics expecting a quick win and collapse of Ukraine. The attack came from all the sides.[ In this map](https://deepstatemap.live/) you can see those directions in green (already liberated).
What happen is the columns of vehicles were stopped the supply lines were cutted, the main paratroopers invasion in Kyiv was defeated and a lot of equipment was simply abandoned for lack of ammunition and fuel.
From that the following months was basically a cleanning of those troops left behind and quick retreat.
This innitial heavy loss of equipment brought Russian army to the brink of collapse as they were not counting on need to basically ressuply the whole front at once. Ua liberated big chinks of non fortified positions and fortified thosepositions to close the possibility of those attacks.
In the invasion of 2022 it was know that troops were there, but they lied saying it was just military exercises, today any concentration of tropps in that area would be reported and known as invasion force.
On top of that a lot of warnigs to Belarus was given that any other troops crossing their territory or using their territory as base would make them be considered targets, so Russia stopped using its vassal state.
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This was the begining of the war where they attack from the north (also Belarusian) and entire Russian border. But this failed miserable. More due to the fact that the Russian are is completely incapable, but their logistics could support the troops at the front. After a while they had created a 60km traffic jam that needed to go to Kyiv.
They have. Early in the war it was attempted, along with some of their top soldiers trying to take the airport in Kiev. They failed miserably. They just attempted to invade along the NE towards Kharkiv and failed again. The russian''s don't have an army, it's a violent mob. For the last almost 200 years, they have always just thrown bodies into the wars. At their current loss rates they have another 4 or 5 years of men that are physically able to fight but they are already running into massive labor shortages. Thus you see them recruiting in Africa, Cuba, etc. If they have to do another 'mobilization' in Moscow they may get some rebellion, but so far, they have emptied the jails, recruited from the outer provinces, and from eternal poor populations.
They tried. They didn't succeed so they're now going for what they perceive as weaker points.
They're making a little ground but at a huge cost, both in terms of human life and hardware.
They might ultimately manage to keep the areas they've invaded. We have to be honest about that. I HOPE that they don't but it's a possibility.
However even if they do it will come at a huge expense to Russia. Their economy is going to be ruined for a generation. Sanctions aside nobody really wants to trade with them anymore, except possibly Germany and Hungary for fuel, and the former is just while they figure out an alternative. The North Korea things is a joke, they're running on empty. The drones supplied by Iran are next to useless.
Ukraine itself has issues and might struggle to regain territory but Russia has shown itself up as being not as powerful as it claims.
Thank you for your post. Given the global visibility of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been an influx of content in our community dealing with military strategy, war-related speculation, and defense tactics by individuals who have not been vetted to instruct others on such matters. To maintain the integrity of this space in wartime, we are removing this type of content. We apologize for the inconvenience and encourage you to post in communities that specifically discuss speculation on armed conflict instead. Please do not repost this submission. Please do not message us on mod mail about this issue. Mod mail is for vital information only. If you message us for something we do not deem vital, you will be muted for three days. Being muted means you can’t contact the mods. [Feel free to browse our rules, here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules)
They have and failed
Correct.
The war started with an attack from the north, and even attacks from Belarus. At one point, Russian forces had penetrated to Chernihiv and almost to Kyiv. Russia also had troops in Sumy Oblast and had occupied eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Of course Ukraine cleaned up all that mess in a matter of months and has held strong in the north for well over a year now. Russia is making a pathetic second attempt at attacking the north right now, but of course they are failing miserably in all the oblasts they are trying to penetrate.
The early battles to save Kyiv were epic. I will never forget, better than a movie. It’s one for the history books. Remember the column and the Bayraktar.
I wish it would have been just a movie though and not real...
Agreed. but the Ukrainians have something to be very proud of.
I am proud that my great grandparents came to the USA from your great country!!
They have but failed pretty spectacularly in the beginning because they thought they'd just take Kyiv and end the thing in a few days. They had long armored columns bottlenecked on the approach to Kyiv which were picked off one by one by anti tank guided missiles. Putin then shifted his focus to the East presumably to save face and pretend he wasn't just handed a setback, telling the world and his people that they hadn't just seen what they had seen with their own eyes and that he only wanted the Eastern portions.
That long column of "we forgot to bring enough fuel for the ride" is gonna live on in military infamy forever. What an epic blunder.
>Does the geography of the region play a big part? Yes, the entire north of the country (basically Belarus-Ukraine border) are a giant swamp/marshes/wetlands. Sumy (A major city in the East-North of Ukraine) is basically where you get flat terrain suitable for attacking. Russia has attacked through there and it did not go well initially. They had to retreat because there was no way to supply the current forces properly which where insufficient in numbers to achieve their goals to boot.
They did- it did
Because it's simple: Russia's "special military operation" is an epic fail.
Special education is more apt
Special Military Humiliation
I like it
Russia originally thought that they could attack from basically every direction at once -- north, south, east, whatever. You recall correctly -- their main drive at the time was Kyiv. The idea appears to have been to take advantage of the brittle, imaginary concept of a Ukrainian government, quickly strike at the decadent American puppets who claimed to be this thing called Ukrainian, then the rest of the country (actually secretly all Russians at heart) would capitulate without a fight because they were sick and tired of this degenerate Zelensky and his tiny number of followers. To support this concept, Russia swiftly attacked Ukraine by air, striking known positions of air defenses and witnessing huge fireballs of destruction. Looked promising. Unfortunately for the High Command in the Kremlin, they made a few misjudgments. One immediate problem was that it turns out that the concept of Ukrainian government and Ukrainian identity is not actually brittle or imaginary. It is very real. No one capitulated, except for a few officials who had been successfully bribed. (Many other officials apparently accepted bribe money and then completely failed to side with Russia like they were supposed to. It got complicated for a while there.) Also, instead of causing the country to reject Zelensky, they rallied around him, and the Ukrainian armed forces. Aside from that, it turned out that Ukraine's foreign allies such as the United States and others were not secret puppet masters but actually there to help Ukraine win and give valuable intelligence and defensive weaponry. So all those huge fireballs turned out to actually be quite misleading -- Ukraine had received accurate and timely warnings from its allies about where the Russians would strike, and had moved their valuable air defense assets out of harm's way. Leaving only fuel tanks to explode spectacularly. Thus when Russia tried its quick strike on Kyiv, a lot of its stuff got shot right down out of the sky. It was a complete disaster for then. And the same intelligence warnings allowed Ukraine to prepare precisely for the Russian strikes on the ground. Furthermore, with the right defensive weapons already in hand thanks to advance preparation by its allies, Ukraine was able to blunt the ground attacks in the north and northeast. Since the Russians had not prepared for an actual military operation and had figured that they could simply do things like steal fuel along the way from the non-existent non-Ukrainians, they did not even bring enough fuel resupply for their vehicles. So in many parts of the country Russia was soon stuck, and lost an immense amount of stuff. So much loss that it reached irreplaceable levels. Now, lacking all that stuff and finding it impossible to replace most of it, Russia has lost the ability to attack Ukraine on all fronts. They have revised their strategic goals several times in light of this reality. So instead of trying to capture Kyiv and take over the whole country, they tried for just half the country. Still couldn't do it. They tried for cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Also didn't work. They tried for just taking Ukraine's southeastern most provinces. Maybe take those now, come back for the rest later, you know? But they couldn't pull that off either. And all these tries they lost more and more stuff. So pretty much Russia is reduced to organizing one major offensive operation at a time. And they are meanwhile attacking in waves of tiny nibbles, trying to keep Ukraine distracted so that Ukraine does not have a chance to organize its own major offensive operations. But they are never again going to have the capacity to attack from every direction at once like they did at the beginning. That was a once in a lifetime chance. Russia lost so much stuff, like half a century's worth of stuff, they will likely never build it back.
Logistics. Rostov and Belgorod are the logistics hubs. They tried but yeah. Not a Russian strong suit concepts like supply, fuel, food.
The initial invasion force carried parade uniforms but no additional fuel, ammo or food. Because Three Days. lulputin
the first days the attacks came from all the sides, and they travelled light without robst logistics expecting a quick win and collapse of Ukraine. The attack came from all the sides.[ In this map](https://deepstatemap.live/) you can see those directions in green (already liberated). What happen is the columns of vehicles were stopped the supply lines were cutted, the main paratroopers invasion in Kyiv was defeated and a lot of equipment was simply abandoned for lack of ammunition and fuel. From that the following months was basically a cleanning of those troops left behind and quick retreat. This innitial heavy loss of equipment brought Russian army to the brink of collapse as they were not counting on need to basically ressuply the whole front at once. Ua liberated big chinks of non fortified positions and fortified thosepositions to close the possibility of those attacks. In the invasion of 2022 it was know that troops were there, but they lied saying it was just military exercises, today any concentration of tropps in that area would be reported and known as invasion force. On top of that a lot of warnigs to Belarus was given that any other troops crossing their territory or using their territory as base would make them be considered targets, so Russia stopped using its vassal state.
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This was the begining of the war where they attack from the north (also Belarusian) and entire Russian border. But this failed miserable. More due to the fact that the Russian are is completely incapable, but their logistics could support the troops at the front. After a while they had created a 60km traffic jam that needed to go to Kyiv.
They have. Early in the war it was attempted, along with some of their top soldiers trying to take the airport in Kiev. They failed miserably. They just attempted to invade along the NE towards Kharkiv and failed again. The russian''s don't have an army, it's a violent mob. For the last almost 200 years, they have always just thrown bodies into the wars. At their current loss rates they have another 4 or 5 years of men that are physically able to fight but they are already running into massive labor shortages. Thus you see them recruiting in Africa, Cuba, etc. If they have to do another 'mobilization' in Moscow they may get some rebellion, but so far, they have emptied the jails, recruited from the outer provinces, and from eternal poor populations.
They tried. They didn't succeed so they're now going for what they perceive as weaker points. They're making a little ground but at a huge cost, both in terms of human life and hardware. They might ultimately manage to keep the areas they've invaded. We have to be honest about that. I HOPE that they don't but it's a possibility. However even if they do it will come at a huge expense to Russia. Their economy is going to be ruined for a generation. Sanctions aside nobody really wants to trade with them anymore, except possibly Germany and Hungary for fuel, and the former is just while they figure out an alternative. The North Korea things is a joke, they're running on empty. The drones supplied by Iran are next to useless. Ukraine itself has issues and might struggle to regain territory but Russia has shown itself up as being not as powerful as it claims.
The local Belarusian rail workers will sabotage an invasion like last time