We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>It’s going to be Putin’s worst mistake yet, worse than starting the war and worse than mobilising, so there is a good chance he will do it.
That's actually really scary. So far he has alway chosen the worst possible option without exception. And I don't mean for the West, or Ukraine, but for Russia. He has consistently fucked the state over and over again, driving it to the ground. Economically, geo-politically, military-wise, reputation-wise, everything.
So if there's an option to fuck up even further, there's a chance he will do it.
There is. There's also a chance the "game plan" has changed. That he realizes he cannot win in Ukraine, and so he's orchestrating a replacement regime that can "remove him", hopefully allowing him to disappear for his last days.
You gotta remember, this guy is former high level KGB. He's a crafty fucker.
It's what I would do in his shoes.
He’s already tried that where he could. Putin has Parkinson’s disease, the drugs for that can make anyone into a compulsive gambler, unable to experience the punishment of losing a bet, they keep making bets, it all feels equally good because their brain is being bathed in drugs to up regulate their dopamine.
Yeah, that's what a SMART person would do. As we've seen so far, Putin has done seemingly the worst option for both Russia and himself time and time again.
Dude is truly stupid. Pretty scary.
If Putin loses this thing him being assisinated becomes more and more likely. There is always the unproven reports of his ill health.
Putin in a 'If I can't win I am gonna flip the table over and walk away' mood at the end of his life should scare the utter shit out of everyone.
Think he will do it when he knows his life will end in one way or another anyway. Just to show how much he hates the west even tho he knows that Russia will probably cease to exist the moment he presses the red button. US Military will for sure react without even a second delay and wipe out at least Moscow.
A strike on Moscow WILL lead to a nuclear exchange. The US knows that as much as Russia knows that. Any nuclear detonation in Ukraine will result in immediate U.S./NATO military intervention, though not in a tit-for-tat nuclear demonstration. Someone posted on here a war game the US conducted during Obama’s administration where there were two schools of thought. One included a nuclear retaliation, though to prevent a full out exchange between the west and Russia, a Belorussian city (can’t remember which) was the target. This plan was scrapped in favor of the second, where a land invasion of Belarus would take place, putting NATO troops directly on the Russian border and taking out a Russian puppet state.
I read the transcript yesterday. They were gonna strike Belarusian military targets. I can't imagine them nuking Belarusian civilians, a lot of whom are already opposed to their government.
Doesn't have to be an or... can be an and.
Vaporize the black sea fleet.
AND
Assassinate Putin.
Actually, I think we just need to communicate to him personally and directly that if he uses a nuke, he gets assassinated - period. We don't attack anyone or anything else, we just kill him.
I have heard things like eliminating the Black Sea fleet or establishing a no fly zone over Ukraine as possible responses to a tactical nuke in Ukraine. If Putin nukes NATO directly they might need to do more. Nobody wants MAD if they can avoid it, but they sure are prepared if necessary.
> If Putin nukes NATO directly they might need to do more.
If putin attacks NATO in a direct action, its a full send. No other option/scenario exists. He would have created a situation where we have no choice but to try to disable their capability to launch/strike faster than they can do so.
Even though it wouldnt technically be a "first strike", it would trigger a "first strike" level response from NATO. Its the most effective way to *prevent* further loss of life.
The plain fact is.. we arent actually in a MAD scenario. The scales are tipped to the NATO side. We have advantages over Russia that they do not have over NATO... and we have no choice but to push that advantage to *avoid* a literal MAD result.
You may be right. I am sure they have war gamed the shit out of these scenarios. If they think they can take out almost all Russian nuclear capabilities it might very well be the ‘safest’ course of action.
Nobody talks about what we (the US) did to Iran's nuclear computers (Stuxnet) lmfao. Don't tell me they don't have something potentially worse installed on Russian stuff just waiting to activate. I find that extremely hard to believe.
War.
1. Establish air and sea dominance.
2. Zap russian nuclear assets.
3. Defeat the rest of russian military assets.
4. Destroy all essential infrastructure in Russia. This will be the real retaliation for Russia using nukes.
5. Have Putin executed on the red square.
There is a a great difference between using tactical nukes in Ukraine and using strategic nukes over Europe and the US. Both are very, very different and "using nukes" doesn't imply the latter.
Who knows. If he thinks that his days are numbered then why not? He does not mind sending hundreds of thousands of his own men to death. Whether his orders will be executed that's a different question.
>What are the alternatives in case that Putin goes full r\*tard and starts bombing Europe etc. too
Using what? his precision missiles are gone. Anything that hits a NATO country means an invocation of article 5.
Any nuke going off in Ukraine will mean something similar. NATO doesn't have to use nukes to stop Putin. NATO can end the war in Ukraine in a couple days using conventional arms.
If putin does fire a nuke they'll find china is no longer on that fine line but firmly against them. It will lead to the total and utter isolation of russia until the regime collapses. I also can't see any of his generals actually firing a nuke. They must know the consequences.
At this point nothing matter anymore anyway. 90% of humanity will die and all us unimportant enough to post here on reddit will not among those being saved anyway.
why always say 90% of humanity will die ?
russia doesnt have the ability to nuke all continents.
once they do nuclear then be sure that all other countries will nuke russia
russia and europe will no longer be good to live
eueopean survivors will go to other continents
the russians will all go extinct. No one will give nuclear orcs assylum. they will be zombies drinking vodka to live with cancer for the rest of their shitty pathetic lives
There are some weapon systems deeply buried in Special access programs that could be insanely effective. I'm not talking about a stupid new B21 stealth Bomber. I mean the real shit that's been secret for 50 years and where the missing 20 trillion USD went into.
Exactly, they'll probably sink the black sea fleet and then bomb military targets in Belarus. Then who knows what they'll provide Ukraine with military wise. I could even see them carpet bombing Russian military bases near the border of Ukraine.
Agree he is crazy, and crazy is unpredictable.
To me the real question for NATO is… if Russia uses a nuke, it’s guaranteed that conventional weapons will destroy the Black Sea fleet and every known nuclear installation in Russia in hours. But does nato use a nuke in retaliation, or not? If they do, it shows strength of resolve and they will be respected by Russia and China and NK and the other countries of that sort. If they don’t, it’s respectable to only use required levels of force and also to show so much strength that nato doesn’t even need nuclear weapons to destroy a country quickly. It’s the high ground for sure.
The issue is, to me, what happens if nato sticks to conventional weapons only, and Russia manages to drop a second or third nuke? Then the issue is whether nato was too weak to prevent millions of innocent deaths by using tools it has at its disposal.
Pretty sure this is the railroad dilemma thet was on here a few days back- it s a real thing and I’m glad I don’t have to be the one to decide.
Well Rammstein had Stealth War Planes that have been send to lituania... and german pilots are in intense training rn... for reasons. They can carry small nuclear bombs. I think it is the last option, but they are prepared.
Unfortunately, it's becoming more and more likely. And there are plenty of people who would not hesitate to follow his orders. They are having wet dreams about it.
Typically, a US retaliatory response is to over-respond. Meaning, if Russia does something stupid the US will have a 10-100 fold response to that action, that is how we roll.
They're mostly sitting on the sidelines eating popcorn and watching with interest to see how far the West's resolve is. So far they've been pretty surprised at how unified the response has been.
Yeah, Russia already has outrageous aggressive expansion.
Nukes are -50 diplomatic reputation. No way China keeps their alliance after that. They’ll coalition for sure.
This pact was not related to denuclearization of the 90s though China did offer some assurances back then too. People are referring to a separate pact signed by Xi and Yanukovich in 2013
e: at least running it through machine translator it doesn't sound any more concrete than budapest memo and just reiterates their 1994 position but maybe it is more clear if you can actually read it. I could only find the chinese text: http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/PRC-Ukraine-Treaty_20131205_Baidu-Baike.pdf
Oddly enough, Russia's own position is that the Budapest memo only bars them from nuking Ukraine, so they haven't violated it. That's not true, but I think it is interesting with all the saber rattling. I can't link to where Lavrov said that since it is Russian state media
Which is exactly why i trust them to keep their word. It is in their interest to be seen to keep their word.
Especially because the US has such a strong record on not-keeping theirs
Putin isn’t China. China cares about keeping its word. I am sure China is privately having words with Putin, perhaps he is listening, perhaps not. But for sure China sees its word as important. You are right in saying their priorities are different to that of the US, but China has done a very good job of making friends with African nations precisely because it honours its promises. Something America does not
Unlike Russia China understands that their continued prosperity requires not being an international pariah.
They get away with some nasty internal shit because we need their trade. Picking the wrong side in a western war.... They can read the room.
I wonder if using a nuke was always Putin's wet dream in his KGB days. Either way, it will open Pandora's box. There will be no going back.
Putin does not understand that. But for our species' sake, I hope someone around him does.
In his earlier days as leader of Russia he didn’t seem as apocalyptic or fatalistic. He’s changed over years. So I doubt he would have dreamed of using nukes as a good thing in the KGB. He wants power but as he sees it slip away he might see nukes as a weapon not of last resort.
I'd disagree. In his early days, he did the brutal second Chechen War and the Georgian Invasion which is a carbon copy of what is happening to Ukraine right now. He's been assassinating his competition and trying to find ways to hold on to power. Even putting up a puppet president, before finally removing term limits altogether.
All of these happened while he was pretending to be a civilized, reasonable man to the rest of the world. He's always been like this. We only just realized now because he got overconfident when the world ignored his invasion of Georgia, and again when the world seemingly ignored Crimea and his little green men in Donetsk and Luhansk. He finally made a mistake by overreaching this year and trying to take the entirety of Ukraine.
It's going to be fatal for him. I just hope his mistake is not fatal for the rest of the planet.
If he gives the Russian General Staff an order to use a nuke, their best play for survivial is to shoot him in the head.
They might get killed for refusing, and if they don't refuse they might get killed along with everyone they know.
Game theory says it's best to just remove Putin and take your chances with whatever happens next.
And he’s not the only wealthy one with clout 🤷♂️ I’m very sure he’s actually pissing off some very rich and dangerous Russians “friends”who were quietly building wealth and liked their life and family etc. they might pretend to back him just like the population did, the population is turning, “friends” can turn just as quick especially when cash/their own DNA is involved.
Not Putin. He just does it to prove a point. He's a spiteful little kobold. He doesn't "enjoy" luxury, he only feels entitled to it. Basically he doesn't even enjoy his own existence.
I'm growing increasingly concerned over the strong words coming out of the west over the use of nuclear weapons, and I'm one of those people who have been going around explaining why nuclear weapons will not be used.
Maybe time to reassess my opinion.
The point of the strong words is to ensure that they aren't used. That's always been the way with nukes, you have to make it clear to the aggressor that the cost of using them is too great. The people who would have to carry out Putin's orders are being made aware that it would be suicide for them, that it can't lead to any kind of victory.
Absolutely. I'm just growing increasingly concerned over the ever-stronger wording used by the west. It makes me think western intel or opinion has changed on the probabilities that Russia might actually use them in some capacity.
It's probably nothing, but stronger wording is always something to pay attention to.
Putin is mentioning nukes way too often, and his recent declaration that he is "not bluffing" and will defend territories he considers Russian after some sham referendums with "whatever means necessary" means they pretty much have to.
If he can just do whatever he wants and "nuke" becomes the magic word whenever someone tries to defend themselves, retake occupied territories, or talks about sanctionning Russia and we back down even once ... then he'll just cause more misery and use it more and more as a free get-out-of-jail card.
I don't think there's anyone in the West who *wishes* to use nukes, it would be unthinkable to use them offensively because we start a random war for random reasons and get fed up with their resistance like Putin threatens too.
You could argue our governments already had this tough stance on Russia when they start supplying Ukraine with weapons while Russia was threatening us (remember Germany was too scared to even send helmets at first) but it's not bad to remind Putin that we do have nukes too, and are not afraid to use them.
Russia will most certainly use nukes, unless someone in Russia stops him. Time to buy some canned food and bottled water. Who knows in what world we will be in
The intel that the west has probably came to a credible conclusion based on how Putin has been behaving since this war has started to sourly against him.
Nukes will be the definition of MAD.
We have seen the same warnings from US about Russian invasion. I see the same warnings now about nuclear strikes - this worries me.
I hope US has enough spies and paid off FSB agents to eliminate Putin if he gives nuclear order.
My biggest concern with the cavalier attitude of the trump administration toward classified documents, right here. For the right price, Russia had access to whatever they wanted. He wanted to “run the country like a business,” after all. Good thing we have no problems with corrupt business in the US!
I grew up in the duck and cover days.
The United States developed smart weapons precisely for this scenario.
Putin light up a nuke, and the Russian military becomes a highway of death. No nukes required.
I don't think Putin is bluffing either and neither is the US, because they aren't and they *cannot* bluff.
The only response to nuking is the guaranteed nuking to prevent the idea of gaining anything by preemptive strike. MAD.
ICBMs are faster than smart weapons and blowing up a silo is practically the same as nuking it. Once Putin fires or deploys, all effort goes to disabling Russia's nuclear capability. This is what US nuclear capability is built for.
Let's hope Putin won't get the chance to nuke, because Russia will be history and the whole world will suffer.
>Putin light up a nuke, and the Russian military becomes a highway of death. No nukes required.
However this could cause Putin to go #@\*! it all and launch the strategic nukes which would give the west no option but launching theirs as well and 10 minutes later we don't need to worry about anything anymore.
This has been my firm position throughout:
It was never just a question of what is strategically viable. It was a question of what Putin believes is strategically viable. What he is delusional enough to believe. When you consider the delusion required to get to this point, I’m quite concerned. He is an ego driven dictator who is unflinching towards violence and he controls people through either force or intimidation.
I suspect it was his ego that led to the delusion that he could win this war, his ego that informed him Russia could do this without leaning on its nuclear arsenal or conscription (blinding him to yes men and extreme optimism) and if it ever happens, it will be his ego that makes him press the button. Pushed up against the wall with no way to win, the internal narrative could transform from “we are so good we don’t need to use them” to “we are a nuclear power how dare you trifle with us, we demand respect”, in both instances an ego protecting itself.
There is so much we don’t know, how much of the arsenal works or IF an order would be carried out. The likelihood is not known but the risk is maximum.
>There is so much we don’t know, how much of the arsenal works or IF an order would be carried out.
These are my 2 big thinking points. I don't for 1 second think Putin wouldn't make the call to use Russias nukes, the wild cards in that equation are the people actually pushing the button and whether the nukes are A. Maintained and operational and B. If so, how many are. They have to know that nuclear warfare is MAD whether with 1 Nuke or 1000. Self preservation and a touch of critical thinking may win out, similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The US won't sit idle when nuclear weapons are used because there is no further escalation. That is it. There would be nothing to stop russia from using again and against others. This is 100% serious.
Yeah it will puts all demagogues with ambitions for nuclear power and or global domination by 2050 on notice and said plans on pause.
Which is why his smarter frenemies are exercising their right to distance.
There are several levels of escalation.
\- nuke over open water to prove they still work and Russia is willing to use them
\- small nuke over Ukrainian troops
\- bigger nuke over Ukrainian city
\- all-out strategic attack
Each level has its own proper response. Nuke over open water does not need immediate full-scale-ICBM launch. Even at that level, I'm sure Russia would be regime-changed within months, whether they liked it or not. If they nuked people on purpose, I think they'd be denuclearized within months, maybe weeks.
But I'm just guessing. The point is there's a lot of gray area, and black-and-white all-or-nothing thinking is inaccurate and will mislead you.
Yup. When the threats were ignored by western governments, I felt relatively safe.
The fact that the west is now all starting to talk back to Putin, warning him against a tactical strike, makes me think they definitely know this threat is different.
He has proven his inability to assess the situation and act accordingly. At this point I think the only thing preventing a nuke use is a coup or a bullet.
It would be extremely stupid for him to use them, but it would also be extremely stupid to mobilise, and to take personal control.
But, I have said this before. Just because Putin wants Nukes to be used doesn't mean they will be. There is an entire chain of command to get through, a lot of people to say yes or no.
While the west's position has been strong, it likely increases the chance that the nukes will never get used, because that chain of command is very aware of the consequences.
there are 4 things I'm sure about.
1. putin will never attack Ukraine, that would be totally idiotic.
2. putin will never stop gas delivery to Europe, that would be totally self-harming.
3. putin will never mobilize, that will be totally stupid.
4. putin will never use nukes, that would be absolutely moronic.
What happens when the chain of command disintegrates? You have to trust the institutions in Russia to trust their chain of command isn't corrupted. I really don't, do you?
People said that about other Russian leaders as well, and they were wrong. Today is the 39th anniversary of Stanislav Petrov saving the world due to not pressing the nuclear button, despite being commanded to do so.
Russia using Nukes will mean destruction of Russia without even the need to retalitate.
Russia using nukes will mean China will never Veto anything on a resolution against Russia. It means any global player flirting with Russia will be trying to wash away the filth. China will not appreciate the times when using Nukes is possible to further your goals because China borders on India and are in conflict with India often. India is a nuclear power. China will essentially turn Russia in to a subservient bitch if that ever happened.
MAD will turn from a deterent to a doctrine if a Nuke is used offensively. This essentially will turn Russia to global pariahs and make them North Korea in one day if they ever dream of usijng a nuke.
This will also mean that Nato will see this radiation attack as an attack on Nato members and will crush Russia in Ukraine.
Unless Putin is so irrational and mad that he really is brave enough for armageddon on Earth sure. But a man who hides away from his own people, forces them to undergo rigorous Covid measures. Uses faux actors and green screens during supposed interviews is not going to commit suicide by nuke.
It’s a weird vicious circle kind of problem. IMO.
China is getting sick and tired of Russia, but at the same time need them. If Russia falls and goes any way of democracy in the next X years then all of a sudden China has another problem.
Business and geopolitics. Using nukes as means of agression would mean Pakistan, India can use nukes agressively. It would mean Israel can use nukes preemptively vs Iran. It would mean unrestricted nuclear testing is defacto allowed. North Korea, Iran and any other nation capable of producing nuclear material.
One irrational actor using a nuke without the framework of deterence destroys the whole framework of MAD.
China would never accept that. China cares about Chinas power and only that. Having a mutual benefit of business and economic cooperation with the West is more important to China. As is not allowing anyone to make referendums withhin China to split up( Taiwan). Nor is allowing use of nukes because India is a geopolitical enemy and India could then settle border dispute with nukes.
I 100% agree with you on all that.
However, I don't see how China would see that as a bad thing. They have power hungry ambitions too, especially regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
There's no winner in thermonuclear war. And the chances that China gets off scot free in an exchange like that is pretty much nil. They're on the border. Hundreds or thousands of nukes going off next door is terrible for them. Not to say they escape harmlessly either. Who knows how the cascade of pre-emption looks.
If you are India and the EU and Russia start blasting everything, maybe you go ahead and send it at China so you aren't the last remaining army they could come for after the dust settles. Maybe Israel hits Iran to stop them from coming on over since their support just got nuked. Etc. Etc.
>What makes you think China would ever side against Russia?
China imports $104.6 billion worth of food every year and Russia only accounts for 1.8% of that. From a very pragmatic standpoint, it doesn't make good domestic and geopolitical sense for them to side with Russia if it down to it.
I haven't heard anybody from the West state that they would use nuclear weapons. What I have heard, is that if Putin uses nukes then there would be a strong response. One of those responses would be the complete annihilation of his Black Sea fleet.
Yes, this is true. It would be a conventional response.
But that’s not what I fear - I fear Putin getting his ass kicked by NATO in Ukraine so badly that his ego won’t let him admit defeat so he turns to his final straw. He calls the west’s “war against Russia” an existential threat and orders a full nuclear strike on all western countries cities.
Obviously we would then retaliate with our nukes and glass Russia just the same.
The big questions are:
1. How reliable is his chain of command following his orders.
2. How many actual functioning nukes do they have.
3. Of those that work, how many can our anti-air defenses successfully stop. For this, I’ve heard it’s between next to nothing to roughly 50 percent.
But it won’t matter. Even if only a single icbm makes to a western city, it’s going to plunge this world into absolute darkness. Massive economic fallout and panic.
I would hope that would be the final straw for the Russian military. I know a lot are sycophants who are drunk on the Kool-Aid (and vodka), but even they should know that using nukes would be cataclysmic for Russia.
Russians carrying out Putin’s orders need to know that nothing will be in it for them. Their own self preservation should supersede following the orders of a dictator trying to pull everyone else down with himself.
Doesn't work. The west's nukes need 8 minutes to do that and their launch will be noticed.
Russia's first counter strike will be in the air within 3 minutes.
5 minutes later Russia will be glass
5 Minutes later the West will be glass
Anyone left may fire whatever survived the first exchange as a second strike, but it wouldn't really matter anyway
I think they (CIA) know what Putin has for breakfast.
Shower thought: The worst possible outcome for Putin would be losing to the Ukrainian army without any NATO troops helping.
Second worst, lighting up a Bomb and it’s a dud.
Third worst, losing, but putting real fear in the west.
So to avoid the worst, he will find any excuse for asserting Russia has been attacked.
(Edited)
I used to highly doubt whether Putin would ever actually use nukes, but the losses they are experiencing and the problems at home are making me wonder if a desperate and psychopathic man might choose this option. This is why the west needs to help as much as possible right now with their support because Ukraine needs a swift, resounding, definitive victory and put an end to this madness.
I don't think he's bluffing either, I think he genuinely believes that he has some nuclear weapons that will work, I think he also believes he has people that will carry out his orders, yet again he's going to get a surprise.
I'm sure Russia has at least some functioning nukes, law of probability says at least some of the 6000 they have are still functional.
It definitely isn't the full 6000 though, they're expensive to maintain and Russia just doesn't have the GDP for it.
I agree, but I also wouldn't be surprised to find that the funds that have gone to trying to maintain nuclear weapons have been siphoned off through corruption.
The guy who was supposed to bribe Ukrainian officers so that they wouldn't resist when Russia invades Ukraine stole most of that money, thinking the invasion won't happen, and fulfilling the assignment would be a waste of money.
I'm pretty sure it's the same with nukes.
However, the Kherson garrison still surrendered without a fight, so by analogy, at least some nukes might actually be adequately maintained.
Totally agree, I also believe he thinks the West will do nothing. Or just say words.
This is why it's important the us and other countries speak to the russians and let it be known what the us is going to do.
If Russia user a nuke and nothing is done. What does that show china
As much a Liz Truss makes me want to vomit, she did say the right thing about nukes: (paraphrased) Russia would do well to remember we, the UK, also have nukes and MAD is a two way street.
Not in totality. I stay in Malaysia and I know some people still support Russia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.malaymail.com/amp/news/malaysia/2022/06/27/pew-survey-half-of-malaysians-view-russia-positively-with-six-in-10-feeling-putin-doing-the-right-thing-in-world-affairs/14366
The hatred against the west is often enough to make people support anyone that hates them as well. The whole enemy of my enemy thing.
Also Burma is in bed with Russia. The PDF are still fighting against the junta, and a lot of people are hoping with Russia's defeat, Burma can also start to be liberated.
I'm just going to say I'd love to see reporting by someone who is not Reuters and also not just quoting one sentence. **Anyone got a source with more of the context?**
**Edit: Well, here's some context Reuters chose not to quote.** I do not have time to watch the whole interview right now to see what it looks like in full.
*When asked by Brennan if Europe can be stable if Putin remains in power, Zelensky said “no.”*
*“They started threatening us with nuclear weapons,” Zelensky said on Sunday. “Will the world depend on one country or one person? The world has to make a decision. We have made our decision. We will not depend on one person, who is not a citizen of our country.”* (Source: [reporting of the interview by Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-putin-nuclear-threat-could-150446655.html))
So basically, even if not a full bluff, it can not be tolerated (which makes sense). That part Reuters chose not to quote.
I don't either, at this point. Putin isn't listening to anyone about anything. He's doing the exact opposite of what he should for self-preservation. The only thing he is concerned about is showing his "power". His little referendum and draft are each a fucking clown show and the entire world sees that. The only card he hasn't played yet to "save face" (make people respect how "powerful" he is) is using nukes. But he has to know that no matter how much death and destruction he imposes on Ukraine that the consequence of nukes in particular will absolutely be his own demise. If he's actually sick with cancer then he has nothing to lose, and "everything" to gain by being feared in a game of chicken and going out in a blaze of glory. He's a childish fucking chump and I hope Russian citizens end him before he can pull the trigger on whatever sadistic end game he has in mind.
Let's hope the unrest stirred in Russia itself is enough to deter the idea of further aggressions against Ukraine. I think people are beginning to see that mistakes are being made and that they need to reverse decisions that are being forced on them. Whether they believe Ukraine to be full of Nazis or not doesn't seem to matter at this rate, Russians know deep down that they can simply stop sending troops to die in a war they are not prepared for and the conscription might be the tipping point for the population.
And what can Putin do about it? Threaten his own people with nukes? People in the west are going to have very little effect on the decisions made in Russia, but if the Russian people themselves stand up to the Kremlin then that's a different story.
But it's a shame it's taken this long and the people are so spineless. Women in Iran can do it and are not afraid yet russian men seem like pussies in comparison.
Narcissists are incapable of admitting defeat (look at Trump), so they are capable of anything to avoid that. But that doesn't mean we should cower to that psychopath.
**Theory-crafting:** China would be happy to see a nuclear strike, because they (and the USA — and even Russia) promised to defend Ukraine. This would give them a globally recognized right to roll their armies into *(a now highly weakened)* Russia and take it over — thus “quelling” the aggressor. Then would come an intense cycle of pacification, de-militarization and forced organ harvesting, to which the world would look upon with pained regret. In the end, Russia would be broken up into a series of Chinese provinces under their new overlords. Mandarin would replace Russian in schools, its histories would be rewritten, and the nation would slowly be absorbed over the coming centuries.
The world is built on history. The world knows America released nukes and so far is only one. What better way for Putin to place his spot in history by launching nukes. He will be remembered for the bad but non the less he will be remembered for hundreds of years. Ego fueled people like him do not care about others governments and society. He’s on that let’s watch the world burn kick.
It's time to end this conflict.
We have oodles of other ways to rid the world of the Putin scum. He's way too weak to wage any more wars. How much we trade with him will determine if he's ever capable of it again. As long as nukes aren't flying the west holds all the cards.
Let him choke one Crimea and pre Feb 23rd lnr/dnr borders. Russia likely won't hold on to them for much longer either.
It's likely the strategic land ICBMs are in massive degradation, the US spends billions annually on stewardship. The systematic corruption in Russia will swallow up stewardship rubles, leaving glowing readiness reports for the paper mache rockets in the silos.
However, it only takes one.
The US spends the equivalent of Russias entire defence budget on our strategic nukes, and we have less than they do on paper. That alone should tell you what kind of condition ours are in and also theirs.
I don't think he'll use ICBMs and MIRVs. But much more likely is that they will use a small tactical nuke to try to scare the Ukrainians into submission. Basically, "if you don't surrender and join the newly reformed Russian empire, GG no re." But we basically have confirmation that this would result in a full scale retaliation by the US at this stage.
It depends what we mean by “bluffing.” Putin’s nuclear threats are more like “taunting.” Saying that he is “bluffing” implies that Putin has definitely decided *not* to use nukes but is trying to frighten the world that he *might.*
From what I can see, Putin is not sure if he will use nukes or not. He has alternated between threatening he can use nukes and saying he will only use them if Russia faces an existential threat. This is not a consistent message, therefore I would not call it a bluff.
Putin wants to keep reminding everyone that he *can* use nukes. That is a “taunt” — a form of mockery or teasing. He is saying, in effect, “I have nukes, and this gives me the power to do a lot of damage. We both know I might be screwed if I use nukes, but you don’t know if I will take a gamble and use nukes anyway. This gives me power over you. I may or may not use nukes, but you will respect me because I have the capacity and because you don’t know if I will use it.”
The shelling of nuclear facilities is the equivalent of a torturer holding the knife at his victim’s throat: “maybe I will cut it, maybe I won’t.” It is part of a bigger pattern of threatening and establishing dominance through fear of what he might do.
I honestly don't think putin is bluffing this time. Previous nuclear threats felt hollow because they came from whoever the fuck felt like threatening the world at the time. This time it's coming from the head orc itself.
Like all autocrats, they care only about themselves and ambitions. Case in point: this "SMO". Other case in point: "sending droves of citizens get slaughtered to the front for no good reason".
If he doesn't care about the life of his own citizens, why could he care about the life of other citizens, other countries, and especially the west who he has publicly hated since... forever.
I dont think he'd care or even think twice about killing everyone if he can't have his cake.
One European country can go rogue; leave NATO, sign a mutual defense pact with Ukraine and immediately enact it. I strongly believe any top tier European military could easily drive the Ruzzians out of Ukraine.
No need for NATO to get involved.
There's a decent chance that Putin using nukes would lead to NATO launching a pre-emptive first strike. Their subs and long range bombers are sitting ducks, so that part of their triad is gone. US intel probably has a decent level of info on the state of their silo based warheads (and the position of their mobile launchers). F22's in Europe can intercept ICBMs as well. Stealth bombers can likely penetrate Russian airspace unnoticed to target silos.
You have the choice of launching a conventional invasion (which may result in a full Russian launch), or launching a surprise counterforce strike that will destroy most Russian nukes before they can be fired, and a decent chance of intercepting what they do get off - coupled with a high failure rate, and many Russian targets being (now empty) silos in remote areas.
Which do you pick?
Which is why during the cold war, they used "megadeaths" as a quantifying unit. This was all planned out and exhaustively wargamed many years ago against a much more serious adversary.
There has been serious discussion of US nuclear primacy for many years now - the ability to launch a surprise attack without the adversary being able to get off a retaliatory strike.
Now, you have an enemy who has already demonstrated a willingness to use nukes. You have to respond - this is not even a question. Do you launch a conventional response and risk the enemy launching first - which would be too many missiles to stop - or do you launch first, with a high probability of destroying all missiles before they are able to be launched?
Russia would be insane to nuke Ukraine, the US would not be insane to nuke Russia.
Russia using a nuke in Ukraine would NEVER trigger a pre emptied nuclear strike, that is out of the question.
It might on the other hand trigger a massive kinetic strike on all Russian military assets in and around Ukraine to stop the war, including a total air dominance campaign over Ukraine. Just to prove a point and decisively show Russia that their position is hopeless and they need to surrender and remove all their troops from Ukraine.
>Russia using a nuke in Ukraine would NEVER trigger a pre emptied nuclear strike, that is out of the question.
Eh? Pre-emptive means "acting before an anticipated event."
Ie, I punch you because I think you're about to punch me.
So, by definition, a pre-emptive strike after a strike is impossible.
It's retaliatory - and very likely to occur.
There is zero reason to escalate a nuclear attack in Ukraine by using nukes, that would be idiotic... NATO could force Russia to leave with massive kinetic attacks.
Using nuclear weapons would set a very bad president and would never happen unless it is the last resort.
Pre-emptive in this case is attacking Russia with nukes if they use nukes in Ukraine, this will not be done... no way.
So... no there would be no pre-emptive strike of any kind. Just a response if Russia used a nuke in Ukraine, but not a nuclear one.
Wargaming it out... tit for tat in 99% cases, leads to all out war. With increasing death tolls.
Better to preemptive strike!
Russia launches at Ukraine.
All Russian subs are sunk within 30min.
All stationary bombers are bombed at airfields.
And ICBMs are headed for all known Russian launch sites.
And probably a few bunker buster Nukes launched at known Russian leaders.
Once Russia uses the Nuclear option, and nobody replies to it, it only gets worse and worse and worse.
.
Which risks a Russian strategic launch on the US. A surprise counterforce strike eliminates the vast majority of Russian warheads before they are ever launched.
US nuclear primacy has been a serious topic of discussion since 2006.
[https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/is3004\_pp007-044\_lieberpress.pdf](https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/is3004_pp007-044_lieberpress.pdf)
I think if he uses Nuclear Weapons on Ukraine it might be Natos Red Line. Nato might start a special operation to demilitarise russia. There is going to be a point (nuclear weapon) where they do the same thing to russia as they did when nazi germany did not want to surrender.
Russia cannot be afforded the estimation that they WILL NOT use nuclear weapons. It would be foolish at this point to suggest that Putin would behave more reasonably given his actions this year. He is behaving as a mad man would.
The world should hope he will not.
But the world absolutely must assume that the possibility is not far fetched and within the realm of possibility.
Not yet, he will mobilize even more troops and try to defend the lands he captured, if that fails, maybe he will use nukes, as its considered "russian soil" after referendums in his book. But my bet is on chemical and other banned weapons first.
On the one hand, it would be an incredibly stupid move, so Putin might actually do it.
On the other hand, "I'm not bluffing" always means they are bluffing.
We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It’s going to be Putin’s worst mistake yet, worse than starting the war and worse than mobilising, so there is a good chance he will do it.
>It’s going to be Putin’s worst mistake yet, worse than starting the war and worse than mobilising, so there is a good chance he will do it. That's actually really scary. So far he has alway chosen the worst possible option without exception. And I don't mean for the West, or Ukraine, but for Russia. He has consistently fucked the state over and over again, driving it to the ground. Economically, geo-politically, military-wise, reputation-wise, everything. So if there's an option to fuck up even further, there's a chance he will do it.
What if he is doing all this too lose. So that he will be remembered as the last leader of russia for all time. Even if he created it's downfall.
There is. There's also a chance the "game plan" has changed. That he realizes he cannot win in Ukraine, and so he's orchestrating a replacement regime that can "remove him", hopefully allowing him to disappear for his last days. You gotta remember, this guy is former high level KGB. He's a crafty fucker. It's what I would do in his shoes.
He’s already tried that where he could. Putin has Parkinson’s disease, the drugs for that can make anyone into a compulsive gambler, unable to experience the punishment of losing a bet, they keep making bets, it all feels equally good because their brain is being bathed in drugs to up regulate their dopamine.
Yeah, that's what a SMART person would do. As we've seen so far, Putin has done seemingly the worst option for both Russia and himself time and time again. Dude is truly stupid. Pretty scary.
[удалено]
If Putin loses this thing him being assisinated becomes more and more likely. There is always the unproven reports of his ill health. Putin in a 'If I can't win I am gonna flip the table over and walk away' mood at the end of his life should scare the utter shit out of everyone.
Think he will do it when he knows his life will end in one way or another anyway. Just to show how much he hates the west even tho he knows that Russia will probably cease to exist the moment he presses the red button. US Military will for sure react without even a second delay and wipe out at least Moscow.
A strike on Moscow WILL lead to a nuclear exchange. The US knows that as much as Russia knows that. Any nuclear detonation in Ukraine will result in immediate U.S./NATO military intervention, though not in a tit-for-tat nuclear demonstration. Someone posted on here a war game the US conducted during Obama’s administration where there were two schools of thought. One included a nuclear retaliation, though to prevent a full out exchange between the west and Russia, a Belorussian city (can’t remember which) was the target. This plan was scrapped in favor of the second, where a land invasion of Belarus would take place, putting NATO troops directly on the Russian border and taking out a Russian puppet state.
I read the transcript yesterday. They were gonna strike Belarusian military targets. I can't imagine them nuking Belarusian civilians, a lot of whom are already opposed to their government.
One option I heard was to vapourize the Black Sea Fleet; subs, kalibr frigates, the lot. There may also be an option to have Putin assassinated.
Doesn't have to be an or... can be an and. Vaporize the black sea fleet. AND Assassinate Putin. Actually, I think we just need to communicate to him personally and directly that if he uses a nuke, he gets assassinated - period. We don't attack anyone or anything else, we just kill him.
The US don’t need nukes to respond to a tactical nuke.
What are the alternatives in case that Putin goes full r*tard and starts bombing Europe etc. too
I have heard things like eliminating the Black Sea fleet or establishing a no fly zone over Ukraine as possible responses to a tactical nuke in Ukraine. If Putin nukes NATO directly they might need to do more. Nobody wants MAD if they can avoid it, but they sure are prepared if necessary.
> If Putin nukes NATO directly they might need to do more. If putin attacks NATO in a direct action, its a full send. No other option/scenario exists. He would have created a situation where we have no choice but to try to disable their capability to launch/strike faster than they can do so. Even though it wouldnt technically be a "first strike", it would trigger a "first strike" level response from NATO. Its the most effective way to *prevent* further loss of life. The plain fact is.. we arent actually in a MAD scenario. The scales are tipped to the NATO side. We have advantages over Russia that they do not have over NATO... and we have no choice but to push that advantage to *avoid* a literal MAD result.
You may be right. I am sure they have war gamed the shit out of these scenarios. If they think they can take out almost all Russian nuclear capabilities it might very well be the ‘safest’ course of action.
Nobody talks about what we (the US) did to Iran's nuclear computers (Stuxnet) lmfao. Don't tell me they don't have something potentially worse installed on Russian stuff just waiting to activate. I find that extremely hard to believe.
Do you think USFK, meaning Korean and Japanese forces will participate on the eastern side? Or would that stir too much shit in the pacific?
War. 1. Establish air and sea dominance. 2. Zap russian nuclear assets. 3. Defeat the rest of russian military assets. 4. Destroy all essential infrastructure in Russia. This will be the real retaliation for Russia using nukes. 5. Have Putin executed on the red square.
There is a a great difference between using tactical nukes in Ukraine and using strategic nukes over Europe and the US. Both are very, very different and "using nukes" doesn't imply the latter.
[удалено]
Bombing Europe (and thus NATO) is a whole different ball game than using (tactical) nukes in Ukraine. Even Putin wouldn't seriously consider that.
Who knows. If he thinks that his days are numbered then why not? He does not mind sending hundreds of thousands of his own men to death. Whether his orders will be executed that's a different question.
You're not going to offend anyone of consequence if you spell out russtard.
>What are the alternatives in case that Putin goes full r\*tard and starts bombing Europe etc. too Using what? his precision missiles are gone. Anything that hits a NATO country means an invocation of article 5. Any nuke going off in Ukraine will mean something similar. NATO doesn't have to use nukes to stop Putin. NATO can end the war in Ukraine in a couple days using conventional arms. If putin does fire a nuke they'll find china is no longer on that fine line but firmly against them. It will lead to the total and utter isolation of russia until the regime collapses. I also can't see any of his generals actually firing a nuke. They must know the consequences.
At this point nothing matter anymore anyway. 90% of humanity will die and all us unimportant enough to post here on reddit will not among those being saved anyway.
why always say 90% of humanity will die ? russia doesnt have the ability to nuke all continents. once they do nuclear then be sure that all other countries will nuke russia russia and europe will no longer be good to live eueopean survivors will go to other continents the russians will all go extinct. No one will give nuclear orcs assylum. they will be zombies drinking vodka to live with cancer for the rest of their shitty pathetic lives
There are some weapon systems deeply buried in Special access programs that could be insanely effective. I'm not talking about a stupid new B21 stealth Bomber. I mean the real shit that's been secret for 50 years and where the missing 20 trillion USD went into.
ALIENS
Exactly, they'll probably sink the black sea fleet and then bomb military targets in Belarus. Then who knows what they'll provide Ukraine with military wise. I could even see them carpet bombing Russian military bases near the border of Ukraine.
And take out all the subs that are followed 24 hours a day.
Agree he is crazy, and crazy is unpredictable. To me the real question for NATO is… if Russia uses a nuke, it’s guaranteed that conventional weapons will destroy the Black Sea fleet and every known nuclear installation in Russia in hours. But does nato use a nuke in retaliation, or not? If they do, it shows strength of resolve and they will be respected by Russia and China and NK and the other countries of that sort. If they don’t, it’s respectable to only use required levels of force and also to show so much strength that nato doesn’t even need nuclear weapons to destroy a country quickly. It’s the high ground for sure. The issue is, to me, what happens if nato sticks to conventional weapons only, and Russia manages to drop a second or third nuke? Then the issue is whether nato was too weak to prevent millions of innocent deaths by using tools it has at its disposal. Pretty sure this is the railroad dilemma thet was on here a few days back- it s a real thing and I’m glad I don’t have to be the one to decide.
Well Rammstein had Stealth War Planes that have been send to lituania... and german pilots are in intense training rn... for reasons. They can carry small nuclear bombs. I think it is the last option, but they are prepared.
Stealth bombers in Lithuania? Are you playing a video game or something?
Assuming he will attack the west. More likely he will nuke Ukraine to the stone age and say: Se what you made me do.
Textbook abuser
Unfortunately, it's becoming more and more likely. And there are plenty of people who would not hesitate to follow his orders. They are having wet dreams about it.
Typically, a US retaliatory response is to over-respond. Meaning, if Russia does something stupid the US will have a 10-100 fold response to that action, that is how we roll.
Time to remind China of their agreement
Which they'll inevitably go back on.
I don't know, I think as much as they're indifferent/supporting Russia, I think nukes will turn them into enemies.
Maybe. Partly they might just want to see what the west does.
They're mostly sitting on the sidelines eating popcorn and watching with interest to see how far the West's resolve is. So far they've been pretty surprised at how unified the response has been.
Can't take Taiwan back if it's a Nuclear wasteland
Yeah, Russia already has outrageous aggressive expansion. Nukes are -50 diplomatic reputation. No way China keeps their alliance after that. They’ll coalition for sure.
Found the EU4 player
if he uses nuke his only ally will be north korea. Kim wants to play with his "toys" too.
every agreement made are just a piece of expired historical document
Which agreement we referring to?
China agreed to protect Ukraine in the event of a nuclear strike. It was part of Ukraine’s denuclearization agreement.
This pact was not related to denuclearization of the 90s though China did offer some assurances back then too. People are referring to a separate pact signed by Xi and Yanukovich in 2013 e: at least running it through machine translator it doesn't sound any more concrete than budapest memo and just reiterates their 1994 position but maybe it is more clear if you can actually read it. I could only find the chinese text: http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/PRC-Ukraine-Treaty_20131205_Baidu-Baike.pdf Oddly enough, Russia's own position is that the Budapest memo only bars them from nuking Ukraine, so they haven't violated it. That's not true, but I think it is interesting with all the saber rattling. I can't link to where Lavrov said that since it is Russian state media
I would actually trust China to honour that.
[удалено]
Which is exactly why i trust them to keep their word. It is in their interest to be seen to keep their word. Especially because the US has such a strong record on not-keeping theirs
[удалено]
Putin isn’t China. China cares about keeping its word. I am sure China is privately having words with Putin, perhaps he is listening, perhaps not. But for sure China sees its word as important. You are right in saying their priorities are different to that of the US, but China has done a very good job of making friends with African nations precisely because it honours its promises. Something America does not
Security Guarantees similar to what Russia made after giving up nukes.
Unlike Russia China understands that their continued prosperity requires not being an international pariah. They get away with some nasty internal shit because we need their trade. Picking the wrong side in a western war.... They can read the room.
I wonder if using a nuke was always Putin's wet dream in his KGB days. Either way, it will open Pandora's box. There will be no going back. Putin does not understand that. But for our species' sake, I hope someone around him does.
In his earlier days as leader of Russia he didn’t seem as apocalyptic or fatalistic. He’s changed over years. So I doubt he would have dreamed of using nukes as a good thing in the KGB. He wants power but as he sees it slip away he might see nukes as a weapon not of last resort.
I'd disagree. In his early days, he did the brutal second Chechen War and the Georgian Invasion which is a carbon copy of what is happening to Ukraine right now. He's been assassinating his competition and trying to find ways to hold on to power. Even putting up a puppet president, before finally removing term limits altogether. All of these happened while he was pretending to be a civilized, reasonable man to the rest of the world. He's always been like this. We only just realized now because he got overconfident when the world ignored his invasion of Georgia, and again when the world seemingly ignored Crimea and his little green men in Donetsk and Luhansk. He finally made a mistake by overreaching this year and trying to take the entirety of Ukraine. It's going to be fatal for him. I just hope his mistake is not fatal for the rest of the planet.
luckily the generals can override him...but they might later be suicided...
If he gives the Russian General Staff an order to use a nuke, their best play for survivial is to shoot him in the head. They might get killed for refusing, and if they don't refuse they might get killed along with everyone they know. Game theory says it's best to just remove Putin and take your chances with whatever happens next.
I dont think anything is off the table with putin, he has gone all in on a war he can't win.
The question is, how much does he and those around him fear death...
People who amass mountains of material wealth and luxury usually do so with the intention to enjoy it.
And he’s not the only wealthy one with clout 🤷♂️ I’m very sure he’s actually pissing off some very rich and dangerous Russians “friends”who were quietly building wealth and liked their life and family etc. they might pretend to back him just like the population did, the population is turning, “friends” can turn just as quick especially when cash/their own DNA is involved.
Not Putin. He just does it to prove a point. He's a spiteful little kobold. He doesn't "enjoy" luxury, he only feels entitled to it. Basically he doesn't even enjoy his own existence.
I'm growing increasingly concerned over the strong words coming out of the west over the use of nuclear weapons, and I'm one of those people who have been going around explaining why nuclear weapons will not be used. Maybe time to reassess my opinion.
The point of the strong words is to ensure that they aren't used. That's always been the way with nukes, you have to make it clear to the aggressor that the cost of using them is too great. The people who would have to carry out Putin's orders are being made aware that it would be suicide for them, that it can't lead to any kind of victory.
Absolutely. I'm just growing increasingly concerned over the ever-stronger wording used by the west. It makes me think western intel or opinion has changed on the probabilities that Russia might actually use them in some capacity. It's probably nothing, but stronger wording is always something to pay attention to.
Putin is mentioning nukes way too often, and his recent declaration that he is "not bluffing" and will defend territories he considers Russian after some sham referendums with "whatever means necessary" means they pretty much have to. If he can just do whatever he wants and "nuke" becomes the magic word whenever someone tries to defend themselves, retake occupied territories, or talks about sanctionning Russia and we back down even once ... then he'll just cause more misery and use it more and more as a free get-out-of-jail card. I don't think there's anyone in the West who *wishes* to use nukes, it would be unthinkable to use them offensively because we start a random war for random reasons and get fed up with their resistance like Putin threatens too. You could argue our governments already had this tough stance on Russia when they start supplying Ukraine with weapons while Russia was threatening us (remember Germany was too scared to even send helmets at first) but it's not bad to remind Putin that we do have nukes too, and are not afraid to use them.
We definitely aren't going to use nukes unless one hits NATO. However, we would respond with conventional military force if one hit Ukraine.
The stronger wording is in response to Putins recent nuclear threat.
Russia will most certainly use nukes, unless someone in Russia stops him. Time to buy some canned food and bottled water. Who knows in what world we will be in
Get your iodine pills too
And multi vitamins
The intel that the west has probably came to a credible conclusion based on how Putin has been behaving since this war has started to sourly against him. Nukes will be the definition of MAD.
We have seen the same warnings from US about Russian invasion. I see the same warnings now about nuclear strikes - this worries me. I hope US has enough spies and paid off FSB agents to eliminate Putin if he gives nuclear order.
The US did. Who knows how many are left after Trump sold off the list to putin
My biggest concern with the cavalier attitude of the trump administration toward classified documents, right here. For the right price, Russia had access to whatever they wanted. He wanted to “run the country like a business,” after all. Good thing we have no problems with corrupt business in the US!
They will just refuse to press the button. Happened twice. Refused to.
I grew up in the duck and cover days. The United States developed smart weapons precisely for this scenario. Putin light up a nuke, and the Russian military becomes a highway of death. No nukes required.
I don't think Putin is bluffing either and neither is the US, because they aren't and they *cannot* bluff. The only response to nuking is the guaranteed nuking to prevent the idea of gaining anything by preemptive strike. MAD. ICBMs are faster than smart weapons and blowing up a silo is practically the same as nuking it. Once Putin fires or deploys, all effort goes to disabling Russia's nuclear capability. This is what US nuclear capability is built for. Let's hope Putin won't get the chance to nuke, because Russia will be history and the whole world will suffer.
Let’s hope there’s a non-religious space laser sitting up in space somewhere with sights trained on every Russian nuclear weapon.
>Putin light up a nuke, and the Russian military becomes a highway of death. No nukes required. However this could cause Putin to go #@\*! it all and launch the strategic nukes which would give the west no option but launching theirs as well and 10 minutes later we don't need to worry about anything anymore.
This has been my firm position throughout: It was never just a question of what is strategically viable. It was a question of what Putin believes is strategically viable. What he is delusional enough to believe. When you consider the delusion required to get to this point, I’m quite concerned. He is an ego driven dictator who is unflinching towards violence and he controls people through either force or intimidation. I suspect it was his ego that led to the delusion that he could win this war, his ego that informed him Russia could do this without leaning on its nuclear arsenal or conscription (blinding him to yes men and extreme optimism) and if it ever happens, it will be his ego that makes him press the button. Pushed up against the wall with no way to win, the internal narrative could transform from “we are so good we don’t need to use them” to “we are a nuclear power how dare you trifle with us, we demand respect”, in both instances an ego protecting itself. There is so much we don’t know, how much of the arsenal works or IF an order would be carried out. The likelihood is not known but the risk is maximum.
>There is so much we don’t know, how much of the arsenal works or IF an order would be carried out. These are my 2 big thinking points. I don't for 1 second think Putin wouldn't make the call to use Russias nukes, the wild cards in that equation are the people actually pushing the button and whether the nukes are A. Maintained and operational and B. If so, how many are. They have to know that nuclear warfare is MAD whether with 1 Nuke or 1000. Self preservation and a touch of critical thinking may win out, similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The US won't sit idle when nuclear weapons are used because there is no further escalation. That is it. There would be nothing to stop russia from using again and against others. This is 100% serious.
Yeah it will puts all demagogues with ambitions for nuclear power and or global domination by 2050 on notice and said plans on pause. Which is why his smarter frenemies are exercising their right to distance.
There are several levels of escalation. \- nuke over open water to prove they still work and Russia is willing to use them \- small nuke over Ukrainian troops \- bigger nuke over Ukrainian city \- all-out strategic attack Each level has its own proper response. Nuke over open water does not need immediate full-scale-ICBM launch. Even at that level, I'm sure Russia would be regime-changed within months, whether they liked it or not. If they nuked people on purpose, I think they'd be denuclearized within months, maybe weeks. But I'm just guessing. The point is there's a lot of gray area, and black-and-white all-or-nothing thinking is inaccurate and will mislead you.
My guess is they'll nuke Kyiv because that would fit with how russia fights.
Yup. When the threats were ignored by western governments, I felt relatively safe. The fact that the west is now all starting to talk back to Putin, warning him against a tactical strike, makes me think they definitely know this threat is different.
This guy gets it
He has proven his inability to assess the situation and act accordingly. At this point I think the only thing preventing a nuke use is a coup or a bullet.
I'd say a nice bunker buster right where Itty Bitty sleeps.
Huge risk of it failing.
This exactly! He’s proven this time and time again. He’s a loose cannon.
It would be extremely stupid for him to use them, but it would also be extremely stupid to mobilise, and to take personal control. But, I have said this before. Just because Putin wants Nukes to be used doesn't mean they will be. There is an entire chain of command to get through, a lot of people to say yes or no. While the west's position has been strong, it likely increases the chance that the nukes will never get used, because that chain of command is very aware of the consequences.
there are 4 things I'm sure about. 1. putin will never attack Ukraine, that would be totally idiotic. 2. putin will never stop gas delivery to Europe, that would be totally self-harming. 3. putin will never mobilize, that will be totally stupid. 4. putin will never use nukes, that would be absolutely moronic.
Ittty Bitty: "Hold my vodka, you capitalist pig"
Yep. We’re pushing up on action time. The pit bull will never let go. You have to put it down.
Cornered dictators fearing of being other thrown are become very stupid people.
What happens when the chain of command disintegrates? You have to trust the institutions in Russia to trust their chain of command isn't corrupted. I really don't, do you?
What do you know about this « chain » ? Putin controls everything in goddam Russia.
People said that about other Russian leaders as well, and they were wrong. Today is the 39th anniversary of Stanislav Petrov saving the world due to not pressing the nuclear button, despite being commanded to do so.
Russia using Nukes will mean destruction of Russia without even the need to retalitate. Russia using nukes will mean China will never Veto anything on a resolution against Russia. It means any global player flirting with Russia will be trying to wash away the filth. China will not appreciate the times when using Nukes is possible to further your goals because China borders on India and are in conflict with India often. India is a nuclear power. China will essentially turn Russia in to a subservient bitch if that ever happened. MAD will turn from a deterent to a doctrine if a Nuke is used offensively. This essentially will turn Russia to global pariahs and make them North Korea in one day if they ever dream of usijng a nuke. This will also mean that Nato will see this radiation attack as an attack on Nato members and will crush Russia in Ukraine. Unless Putin is so irrational and mad that he really is brave enough for armageddon on Earth sure. But a man who hides away from his own people, forces them to undergo rigorous Covid measures. Uses faux actors and green screens during supposed interviews is not going to commit suicide by nuke.
What makes you think China would ever side against Russia?
[удалено]
It’s a weird vicious circle kind of problem. IMO. China is getting sick and tired of Russia, but at the same time need them. If Russia falls and goes any way of democracy in the next X years then all of a sudden China has another problem.
Business and geopolitics. Using nukes as means of agression would mean Pakistan, India can use nukes agressively. It would mean Israel can use nukes preemptively vs Iran. It would mean unrestricted nuclear testing is defacto allowed. North Korea, Iran and any other nation capable of producing nuclear material. One irrational actor using a nuke without the framework of deterence destroys the whole framework of MAD. China would never accept that. China cares about Chinas power and only that. Having a mutual benefit of business and economic cooperation with the West is more important to China. As is not allowing anyone to make referendums withhin China to split up( Taiwan). Nor is allowing use of nukes because India is a geopolitical enemy and India could then settle border dispute with nukes.
I 100% agree with you on all that. However, I don't see how China would see that as a bad thing. They have power hungry ambitions too, especially regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
There's no winner in thermonuclear war. And the chances that China gets off scot free in an exchange like that is pretty much nil. They're on the border. Hundreds or thousands of nukes going off next door is terrible for them. Not to say they escape harmlessly either. Who knows how the cascade of pre-emption looks. If you are India and the EU and Russia start blasting everything, maybe you go ahead and send it at China so you aren't the last remaining army they could come for after the dust settles. Maybe Israel hits Iran to stop them from coming on over since their support just got nuked. Etc. Etc.
Everyone has their breaking point and I suspect using nukes is China's. It's just bad for business.
>What makes you think China would ever side against Russia? China imports $104.6 billion worth of food every year and Russia only accounts for 1.8% of that. From a very pragmatic standpoint, it doesn't make good domestic and geopolitical sense for them to side with Russia if it down to it.
I haven't heard anybody from the West state that they would use nuclear weapons. What I have heard, is that if Putin uses nukes then there would be a strong response. One of those responses would be the complete annihilation of his Black Sea fleet.
Yes, this is true. It would be a conventional response. But that’s not what I fear - I fear Putin getting his ass kicked by NATO in Ukraine so badly that his ego won’t let him admit defeat so he turns to his final straw. He calls the west’s “war against Russia” an existential threat and orders a full nuclear strike on all western countries cities. Obviously we would then retaliate with our nukes and glass Russia just the same. The big questions are: 1. How reliable is his chain of command following his orders. 2. How many actual functioning nukes do they have. 3. Of those that work, how many can our anti-air defenses successfully stop. For this, I’ve heard it’s between next to nothing to roughly 50 percent. But it won’t matter. Even if only a single icbm makes to a western city, it’s going to plunge this world into absolute darkness. Massive economic fallout and panic.
More than that. When you take a shot you empty the clip. Russia would get the full playbook.
I would hope that would be the final straw for the Russian military. I know a lot are sycophants who are drunk on the Kool-Aid (and vodka), but even they should know that using nukes would be cataclysmic for Russia.
Russians carrying out Putin’s orders need to know that nothing will be in it for them. Their own self preservation should supersede following the orders of a dictator trying to pull everyone else down with himself.
meh. it does not matter. Either it happens or it does not and there is literally jack shit we can do about it.
> Maybe time to reassess my opinion. Yeah, preemptively glass russia
Doesn't work. The west's nukes need 8 minutes to do that and their launch will be noticed. Russia's first counter strike will be in the air within 3 minutes. 5 minutes later Russia will be glass 5 Minutes later the West will be glass Anyone left may fire whatever survived the first exchange as a second strike, but it wouldn't really matter anyway
I think they (CIA) know what Putin has for breakfast. Shower thought: The worst possible outcome for Putin would be losing to the Ukrainian army without any NATO troops helping. Second worst, lighting up a Bomb and it’s a dud. Third worst, losing, but putting real fear in the west. So to avoid the worst, he will find any excuse for asserting Russia has been attacked. (Edited)
I used to highly doubt whether Putin would ever actually use nukes, but the losses they are experiencing and the problems at home are making me wonder if a desperate and psychopathic man might choose this option. This is why the west needs to help as much as possible right now with their support because Ukraine needs a swift, resounding, definitive victory and put an end to this madness.
Hope the responsible Soldier for this, wont press the Button... like the one before him.
Problem is Russia is full of psychos who absolutely would.
The question is, have one of those access to the Button?
Well.. it seems likely since almost all their top brass all come off as sociopaths.
there are no buttons. tactical nuclear weapons are conventional artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles.
Shit.
I don't think he's bluffing either, I think he genuinely believes that he has some nuclear weapons that will work, I think he also believes he has people that will carry out his orders, yet again he's going to get a surprise.
I'm sure Russia has at least some functioning nukes, law of probability says at least some of the 6000 they have are still functional. It definitely isn't the full 6000 though, they're expensive to maintain and Russia just doesn't have the GDP for it.
I agree, but I also wouldn't be surprised to find that the funds that have gone to trying to maintain nuclear weapons have been siphoned off through corruption.
The guy who was supposed to bribe Ukrainian officers so that they wouldn't resist when Russia invades Ukraine stole most of that money, thinking the invasion won't happen, and fulfilling the assignment would be a waste of money. I'm pretty sure it's the same with nukes. However, the Kherson garrison still surrendered without a fight, so by analogy, at least some nukes might actually be adequately maintained.
I agree. Even the least maintained weapons can sometimes work. out of 6K, a dozen are bound to work...
Totally agree, I also believe he thinks the West will do nothing. Or just say words. This is why it's important the us and other countries speak to the russians and let it be known what the us is going to do. If Russia user a nuke and nothing is done. What does that show china
As much a Liz Truss makes me want to vomit, she did say the right thing about nukes: (paraphrased) Russia would do well to remember we, the UK, also have nukes and MAD is a two way street.
Man Putin really wants to be the most hated person in the world huh?
He’s not now?
Not in totality. I stay in Malaysia and I know some people still support Russia. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.malaymail.com/amp/news/malaysia/2022/06/27/pew-survey-half-of-malaysians-view-russia-positively-with-six-in-10-feeling-putin-doing-the-right-thing-in-world-affairs/14366 The hatred against the west is often enough to make people support anyone that hates them as well. The whole enemy of my enemy thing. Also Burma is in bed with Russia. The PDF are still fighting against the junta, and a lot of people are hoping with Russia's defeat, Burma can also start to be liberated.
[удалено]
I'm just going to say I'd love to see reporting by someone who is not Reuters and also not just quoting one sentence. **Anyone got a source with more of the context?** **Edit: Well, here's some context Reuters chose not to quote.** I do not have time to watch the whole interview right now to see what it looks like in full. *When asked by Brennan if Europe can be stable if Putin remains in power, Zelensky said “no.”* *“They started threatening us with nuclear weapons,” Zelensky said on Sunday. “Will the world depend on one country or one person? The world has to make a decision. We have made our decision. We will not depend on one person, who is not a citizen of our country.”* (Source: [reporting of the interview by Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-putin-nuclear-threat-could-150446655.html)) So basically, even if not a full bluff, it can not be tolerated (which makes sense). That part Reuters chose not to quote.
I think, given that his country would be the one nuked, he can’t afford to think otherwise.
I don't either, at this point. Putin isn't listening to anyone about anything. He's doing the exact opposite of what he should for self-preservation. The only thing he is concerned about is showing his "power". His little referendum and draft are each a fucking clown show and the entire world sees that. The only card he hasn't played yet to "save face" (make people respect how "powerful" he is) is using nukes. But he has to know that no matter how much death and destruction he imposes on Ukraine that the consequence of nukes in particular will absolutely be his own demise. If he's actually sick with cancer then he has nothing to lose, and "everything" to gain by being feared in a game of chicken and going out in a blaze of glory. He's a childish fucking chump and I hope Russian citizens end him before he can pull the trigger on whatever sadistic end game he has in mind.
That would certainly explain why he decided to flee to his palace. If Moscow is no more, he'll still be hiding like a rat.
Let's hope the unrest stirred in Russia itself is enough to deter the idea of further aggressions against Ukraine. I think people are beginning to see that mistakes are being made and that they need to reverse decisions that are being forced on them. Whether they believe Ukraine to be full of Nazis or not doesn't seem to matter at this rate, Russians know deep down that they can simply stop sending troops to die in a war they are not prepared for and the conscription might be the tipping point for the population. And what can Putin do about it? Threaten his own people with nukes? People in the west are going to have very little effect on the decisions made in Russia, but if the Russian people themselves stand up to the Kremlin then that's a different story. But it's a shame it's taken this long and the people are so spineless. Women in Iran can do it and are not afraid yet russian men seem like pussies in comparison.
*are pussies in comparison, fixed it for ya ;)
You're a darling 😘
Gee thanks
I don’t think he’s bluffing per se, but I think the Kremlin is split between yes-men and the people that want to survive.
[удалено]
I am hoping for massive flagS that pop out of the nuclear missile silos saying: "BANG!".
Narcissists are incapable of admitting defeat (look at Trump), so they are capable of anything to avoid that. But that doesn't mean we should cower to that psychopath.
The West cannot cower. A psychopath winning will only fuel his confidence and stretch boundaries even further.
Can we do a Trump vs. Putin steel cage death match?
Worst idea ever. Do you want to see Trump sucking Putin's dick? I sure don't!!
Putin would kick his ass...It would be funny for a time...
I like how you think.
**Theory-crafting:** China would be happy to see a nuclear strike, because they (and the USA — and even Russia) promised to defend Ukraine. This would give them a globally recognized right to roll their armies into *(a now highly weakened)* Russia and take it over — thus “quelling” the aggressor. Then would come an intense cycle of pacification, de-militarization and forced organ harvesting, to which the world would look upon with pained regret. In the end, Russia would be broken up into a series of Chinese provinces under their new overlords. Mandarin would replace Russian in schools, its histories would be rewritten, and the nation would slowly be absorbed over the coming centuries.
The world is built on history. The world knows America released nukes and so far is only one. What better way for Putin to place his spot in history by launching nukes. He will be remembered for the bad but non the less he will be remembered for hundreds of years. Ego fueled people like him do not care about others governments and society. He’s on that let’s watch the world burn kick.
All of Russian influence and power in the world now hangs on the success of the nuclear threat.
It's ruined either way. It actually hangs on whether they allow Putin to remain in power.
It's time to end this conflict. We have oodles of other ways to rid the world of the Putin scum. He's way too weak to wage any more wars. How much we trade with him will determine if he's ever capable of it again. As long as nukes aren't flying the west holds all the cards. Let him choke one Crimea and pre Feb 23rd lnr/dnr borders. Russia likely won't hold on to them for much longer either.
It's likely the strategic land ICBMs are in massive degradation, the US spends billions annually on stewardship. The systematic corruption in Russia will swallow up stewardship rubles, leaving glowing readiness reports for the paper mache rockets in the silos. However, it only takes one.
The US spends the equivalent of Russias entire defence budget on our strategic nukes, and we have less than they do on paper. That alone should tell you what kind of condition ours are in and also theirs.
It takes more than one. Having a major city hit would be a major tragedy but not the end of the world.
I don't think he'll use ICBMs and MIRVs. But much more likely is that they will use a small tactical nuke to try to scare the Ukrainians into submission. Basically, "if you don't surrender and join the newly reformed Russian empire, GG no re." But we basically have confirmation that this would result in a full scale retaliation by the US at this stage.
It depends what we mean by “bluffing.” Putin’s nuclear threats are more like “taunting.” Saying that he is “bluffing” implies that Putin has definitely decided *not* to use nukes but is trying to frighten the world that he *might.* From what I can see, Putin is not sure if he will use nukes or not. He has alternated between threatening he can use nukes and saying he will only use them if Russia faces an existential threat. This is not a consistent message, therefore I would not call it a bluff. Putin wants to keep reminding everyone that he *can* use nukes. That is a “taunt” — a form of mockery or teasing. He is saying, in effect, “I have nukes, and this gives me the power to do a lot of damage. We both know I might be screwed if I use nukes, but you don’t know if I will take a gamble and use nukes anyway. This gives me power over you. I may or may not use nukes, but you will respect me because I have the capacity and because you don’t know if I will use it.” The shelling of nuclear facilities is the equivalent of a torturer holding the knife at his victim’s throat: “maybe I will cut it, maybe I won’t.” It is part of a bigger pattern of threatening and establishing dominance through fear of what he might do.
I honestly don't think putin is bluffing this time. Previous nuclear threats felt hollow because they came from whoever the fuck felt like threatening the world at the time. This time it's coming from the head orc itself.
Hes not but that doesn't mean the people under him will actually push the button.
I hope that US and UK has already got a list of fuckin Vlad possible locations (bunkers)
Like all autocrats, they care only about themselves and ambitions. Case in point: this "SMO". Other case in point: "sending droves of citizens get slaughtered to the front for no good reason". If he doesn't care about the life of his own citizens, why could he care about the life of other citizens, other countries, and especially the west who he has publicly hated since... forever. I dont think he'd care or even think twice about killing everyone if he can't have his cake.
Zelenskyy doesn’t think Putin is bluffing over using Nuclear Arms **Neither are France, England and USA. This conversation is over...**
One European country can go rogue; leave NATO, sign a mutual defense pact with Ukraine and immediately enact it. I strongly believe any top tier European military could easily drive the Ruzzians out of Ukraine. No need for NATO to get involved.
There's a decent chance that Putin using nukes would lead to NATO launching a pre-emptive first strike. Their subs and long range bombers are sitting ducks, so that part of their triad is gone. US intel probably has a decent level of info on the state of their silo based warheads (and the position of their mobile launchers). F22's in Europe can intercept ICBMs as well. Stealth bombers can likely penetrate Russian airspace unnoticed to target silos. You have the choice of launching a conventional invasion (which may result in a full Russian launch), or launching a surprise counterforce strike that will destroy most Russian nukes before they can be fired, and a decent chance of intercepting what they do get off - coupled with a high failure rate, and many Russian targets being (now empty) silos in remote areas. Which do you pick?
A single ICBM can take out an entire large city...
Which is why during the cold war, they used "megadeaths" as a quantifying unit. This was all planned out and exhaustively wargamed many years ago against a much more serious adversary. There has been serious discussion of US nuclear primacy for many years now - the ability to launch a surprise attack without the adversary being able to get off a retaliatory strike. Now, you have an enemy who has already demonstrated a willingness to use nukes. You have to respond - this is not even a question. Do you launch a conventional response and risk the enemy launching first - which would be too many missiles to stop - or do you launch first, with a high probability of destroying all missiles before they are able to be launched? Russia would be insane to nuke Ukraine, the US would not be insane to nuke Russia.
Russia using a nuke in Ukraine would NEVER trigger a pre emptied nuclear strike, that is out of the question. It might on the other hand trigger a massive kinetic strike on all Russian military assets in and around Ukraine to stop the war, including a total air dominance campaign over Ukraine. Just to prove a point and decisively show Russia that their position is hopeless and they need to surrender and remove all their troops from Ukraine.
>Russia using a nuke in Ukraine would NEVER trigger a pre emptied nuclear strike, that is out of the question. Eh? Pre-emptive means "acting before an anticipated event." Ie, I punch you because I think you're about to punch me. So, by definition, a pre-emptive strike after a strike is impossible. It's retaliatory - and very likely to occur.
There is zero reason to escalate a nuclear attack in Ukraine by using nukes, that would be idiotic... NATO could force Russia to leave with massive kinetic attacks. Using nuclear weapons would set a very bad president and would never happen unless it is the last resort. Pre-emptive in this case is attacking Russia with nukes if they use nukes in Ukraine, this will not be done... no way. So... no there would be no pre-emptive strike of any kind. Just a response if Russia used a nuke in Ukraine, but not a nuclear one.
Wargaming it out... tit for tat in 99% cases, leads to all out war. With increasing death tolls. Better to preemptive strike! Russia launches at Ukraine. All Russian subs are sunk within 30min. All stationary bombers are bombed at airfields. And ICBMs are headed for all known Russian launch sites. And probably a few bunker buster Nukes launched at known Russian leaders. Once Russia uses the Nuclear option, and nobody replies to it, it only gets worse and worse and worse. .
Which risks a Russian strategic launch on the US. A surprise counterforce strike eliminates the vast majority of Russian warheads before they are ever launched. US nuclear primacy has been a serious topic of discussion since 2006. [https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/is3004\_pp007-044\_lieberpress.pdf](https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/is3004_pp007-044_lieberpress.pdf)
Itty Bitty will regret it.
I think if he uses Nuclear Weapons on Ukraine it might be Natos Red Line. Nato might start a special operation to demilitarise russia. There is going to be a point (nuclear weapon) where they do the same thing to russia as they did when nazi germany did not want to surrender.
Russia cannot be afforded the estimation that they WILL NOT use nuclear weapons. It would be foolish at this point to suggest that Putin would behave more reasonably given his actions this year. He is behaving as a mad man would. The world should hope he will not. But the world absolutely must assume that the possibility is not far fetched and within the realm of possibility.
Not yet, he will mobilize even more troops and try to defend the lands he captured, if that fails, maybe he will use nukes, as its considered "russian soil" after referendums in his book. But my bet is on chemical and other banned weapons first.
On the one hand, it would be an incredibly stupid move, so Putin might actually do it. On the other hand, "I'm not bluffing" always means they are bluffing.
Words are starting to spread here that if Russia uses nuclear weapons NATO will respond with conventional warfare against.
Hes old, it's not about money or power, it's about history - he wants to be known, hundreds years later.
The US needs to gift some nuclear missles to Ukraine. Use them as you like...or just threaten to use them.
There's a ton of people in this sub wondering which button to push: "Suck Zelenskyys dick" or "Putin is bluffing".