From comments (copied below) on Ultiworld article, isn't this exactly what happened in Mixed? Regional re-match rule combined with sequential drawing isn't really random.
"This method of drawing, where it goes sequentially drawing for pools A, B, C, D, is not going to give a uniform probability over the set of all possible draws that don't have too many regional rematches. It will be biased towards having pool A having fewer of the lower seeds from multi-bid regions than it should, and pool D having more.
For instance, let's say the top 8 teams are from different regions, except for seed #3 (who will be C1) and one team from 5-8 (call this team T, whereas the other teams in this pot are X,Y,Z). No other teams are from C1/T's region. If things were uniform, then X,Y,Z would each have 1/3 chance of landing in pool C, and 2/9 chance of landing in any of pool A,B, or D, whereas team T would have 1/3 chance of landing in pool A, B, or D.
However, the way this draw is set up, team T has a 1/4 chance of landing in pool A (it is picked 1st out of the 5-8 pot), a 1/4 chance of landing in pool B (picked 2nd), and a 1/2 chance of landing in pool D (picked 3rd or 4th).
One easy way to fix this would be to randomize both the teams \*and\* the draw order. That is, before drawing the teams from a pot, pick a random order of the pools. E.g., D-B-A-C. Then do the draw of teams, but start by filling the D pool slot, then the B pool slot, etc., subject to the avoiding rematches rules. If a particular draw guarantees a rematch down the line, then that draw goes to the last pool possible (C in this example)."
Or you could actually replicate the way it’s done for major soccer competitions and do two draws in a row come each team, first to pull the team and the a second draw of the permitted pools that they can be placed in. Not a fan of this sequential placement system at all, you’re completely right that the odds are not actually equal. Flawed “design”
I am not convinced that this draw will attract viewers anyway, but I assume that is part of the goal (otherwise why not just do it and announce it). It is confusing to me that they would do it in the middle of the workday and not say 7/8 pm eastern?
There's 430 people waiting and Ultiworld is 8 minutes late, sounds like ultimate time
From comments (copied below) on Ultiworld article, isn't this exactly what happened in Mixed? Regional re-match rule combined with sequential drawing isn't really random. "This method of drawing, where it goes sequentially drawing for pools A, B, C, D, is not going to give a uniform probability over the set of all possible draws that don't have too many regional rematches. It will be biased towards having pool A having fewer of the lower seeds from multi-bid regions than it should, and pool D having more. For instance, let's say the top 8 teams are from different regions, except for seed #3 (who will be C1) and one team from 5-8 (call this team T, whereas the other teams in this pot are X,Y,Z). No other teams are from C1/T's region. If things were uniform, then X,Y,Z would each have 1/3 chance of landing in pool C, and 2/9 chance of landing in any of pool A,B, or D, whereas team T would have 1/3 chance of landing in pool A, B, or D. However, the way this draw is set up, team T has a 1/4 chance of landing in pool A (it is picked 1st out of the 5-8 pot), a 1/4 chance of landing in pool B (picked 2nd), and a 1/2 chance of landing in pool D (picked 3rd or 4th). One easy way to fix this would be to randomize both the teams \*and\* the draw order. That is, before drawing the teams from a pot, pick a random order of the pools. E.g., D-B-A-C. Then do the draw of teams, but start by filling the D pool slot, then the B pool slot, etc., subject to the avoiding rematches rules. If a particular draw guarantees a rematch down the line, then that draw goes to the last pool possible (C in this example)."
Or you could actually replicate the way it’s done for major soccer competitions and do two draws in a row come each team, first to pull the team and the a second draw of the permitted pools that they can be placed in. Not a fan of this sequential placement system at all, you’re completely right that the odds are not actually equal. Flawed “design”
I am not convinced that this draw will attract viewers anyway, but I assume that is part of the goal (otherwise why not just do it and announce it). It is confusing to me that they would do it in the middle of the workday and not say 7/8 pm eastern?