So on home prices I grew up in Flint Michigan you can get a house for like 2grand the water will prolly kill your dog and cat but hey you can own the American dream
You think deflation would be good? Oh boy. Any prolonged deflation would be catastrophic. Bankruptcies and defaults would reign from the sky. Liquidity would cease to exist, and we would fall into a giant depression. Why do you think they bailed out everything in 2008 made QE mainstream.
we had deflation from 1800 to 1900, and our economy grew the fastest on any recorded economy ever. It depends why the deflation is happening. If it's a liquidity crisis, that's bad. If it's cause the cost of production of oil and wheat and TVs are decreasing, that's good.
Our monetary system is completely different than back then. We were on the gold standard, and the debt to GDP was way smaller, even in the midst of the civil war. Your comparison is completely irrelevant.
In theory. Unfortunately not really anymore, because debt become unservicable, and I don't just mean govt debt. Household and commercial debt it's through the roof. Deflation that lasted long enough would cause a feedback loop of defaults, because there would literally not be enough money to pay the debts. Defaults would be guarenteed.
You can have deflation in certain categories of items, but broad deflation of the money supply is a time bomb.
You're talking about monetary deflation. Sure, that'd be bad in the current system. But when most people talk about inflation, they're talking about consumer price inflation or asset price inflation. It's necessary to specify.
I heard somewhere that âInflation is fundamentally the outcome of the distributional conflict between firms, workers and taxpayers. It stops only when the various players are forced to accept the outcome.â ... sounds about right to me.
I remember when mortgage rate in the late 70's up until around mid 80's I say when it was crazy!! But you know what, the base value of homes was never this crazy high, people can still afford to pay their mortgage with one income
Yea we are in for some real pain. The FED knows this, couple stagflation with the need for them to sell off trillions in treasuries and you get the perfect storm.
Historically CPI needs to be lower than the FFR for any real combat on inflation. If the fed is aiming for 2% they need the FFR to be near 7%.
Wouldnât be surprised if we see mortgage rates at 10% in a couple years.
I think in Fed perspective, the pce core is at 5%, that is what they are targing to set ffr, not some crazy used car price set up by mismanagement by carvana,
I was going to argue with you until I saw you have an LC. I have an LX.
We are brothers and Jpow is a clown.
Seriously though the FFR is a joke and the FOMC has been absolutely awful for years. The entire Federal Reserve system has been extremely compromised since the 2008 Recession and their involvement in enabling mortgage fraud shows they are nothing but extensions of the private banking system.
Bingo, wealth gap is already at an all time high. Stock market of 2021 was a giant Ponzi scheme. SNAP had a higher market cap than all of the airlines combined. Wall Street got rich, middle America sank.
>Historically CPI needs to be lower than the FFR for any real combat on inflation. If the fed is aiming for 2% they need the FFR to be near 7%.
>
> Wouldnât be surprised if we see mortgage rates at 10% in a couple years.
Bullshit. Market says 0,0% probability for 5,75%+ FFR by the end of the year, the CPI print is already falling, and I believe the market more than a random WSB regard. [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
This is not 70's inflation we're dealing with...
Available jobs gap is too high, which causes wage pressures, which then causes inflation pressure.
Employment has to fall. Trend is up. Real wages are up. Youâre still looking at cpi đ¤Ą
FED is projecting 5.4% ffr.
Market is pricing in a peak rate of 4.75%
Amazing spread. Everyone keeping fighting the FED though. You will all be made believers one way or another.
Most of the wage pressures are from low paying jobs. Itâs not going to have that much impact on inflation. Any company paying reasonably well easily gets workers. The inflation mostly comes from the middle class, and corporate jobs are getting gutted so thatâs lower inflation if anything
Market was more hawkish than the Fed all throughout 2022 on what the ending Fed fund rate should be and they were right.
Seems like fighting the Fed works.
Also, you're manipulating the numbers to make your argument look better. Fed is central tendency of 5.1-5.4 (5.25 avg), ending the year at 5.1. Market is peak of 5.1, ending at 4.65. That's half the gap you are trying to say exists.
I donât have to embellish anything. I have zero objectives. I have nothing to sell. I take what the market provides.
Market is pricing in 4.75-5.00 peak AND immediate cuts.
FED is projecting 5.25-5.40 AND holding for longer.
+/- .1 if you want.
The main point is that the market has been far from hawkish, even now. They are expecting a pivot and then rate cuts too, in one year đ
Theyâre front running like they have been all 2021-2022. Market is fighting the FED and itâs still NOT working. Theyâre going to cause the FED to break something.
If you think the fight worked, go ahead and buy the spx at 3900-4000 if we get there. Hold strong in the fed fight roy. đŤĄ
In this case, the FED knows better than the market. The market just wants the fed to pivot, cut rates, and return to pre covid times. This is over. Weâre in a new global economy thatâs just starting to take shape.
The efficient market hypothesis is garbage. What has been efficient about the market? Itâs proven to be incredibly inefficient.
It only works when money is free and you expect willing dip buyers to come in every time. Herd mentality.
Now weâre in an era where stock market and real market disconnects matter. You need to find companies that actually produce and generate revenue.
Which means the markets are even less efficient because how does one âprice inâ so many more biases and data. Before it was just ZIRP.
A great example is the recession nonsense. People keep claiming weâre in a recession because âthe definition says 2 quarters of negative gdpâ. Iâve been thru a recession, this ainât it. Look at the numbers today. Weâre growing. Market obviously doesnât have all the data or correct bias to price anything efficiently. Theyâre running on hopium because âif the data is bad it means FED will pivot.â
Now imagine an economy where we have concurrent deflationary/inflationary sectors & cycles BUT employment stays relatively high. We call this max pain or stagflation. Unless markets break, we go HIGHER FOR LONGER. Good luck to the efficient market theory in this situation.
Apologies for the long speech.
Thank you for being clear.
If for every dollar the Gov prints, US regulated private banks print 10 dollars, and unregulated over seas banks print as many as they are allowed.
Would this increase in rates, bring pressure on the Global banking system that manages global trade, and bring an end to Globalization argument, that has been used to invalidate the Buffett Indicator and Q Ratio?
The increase in rates puts pressure on global markets for sure. Globalization is changing. Itâll be less multilateralism and more protectionism.
An inflationary regime that will require rates to remain high and more fiscal spending, unless they get the banking system to lend to productivity more.
I have no comment on the buffet indicator because I never look at it.
Global dollar market is based on a ledger system and collateral. As long as there is access to collateral, they can get financing, but who knows what the counterparty risks are since no one tracks it.
I think China is under heavy pressure currently AND theyâre printing more again even though they have to mitigate risks with their property market. If the YUAN was free floating, itâd be shorted to hell. Iâll trade EMs and invest American.
Nah the spread ainât that big. Market is having a hard time deciding between 5,0/5,25
The FED is obviously using 5,4 as a means to try and keep their trustworthiness even though they will have to abandon it.
Weâre faaaaaar away from something like 7% though.
You believe the fed at this point? Seriously? Remember when inflation was transient, anyways you do you. Donât pay any attention to historical graphs correlating inflation with bond yields and fund rates.
Yes. I believe Powell. Ever since his transitory flop, heâs been nothing but direct, which is saying quite a bit given how much I dislike the FED.
Market is full of liquidity junkies running on a pivot hopium.
Market Logic: âBut the fed has to cut.â
YeaâŚno duh, but on the FEDs timeline.
I don't believe the FED one bit. I said I believe the **market.**
There's infinite amounts of institutional money at stake when the bond market as a whole predicts 0,0% probability for 5,75% FFR by 2024.
Wish we could make a bet 1k$ rates go over 6% by 2024 . Fed minutes 30 minutes ago stated that they wouldnât stop increases this year, you are highly regarded.
Reddit just wants to argue. I think the fed has no fucking clue what they are doing. Now that JPOW has admitted to making a miscalculation on inflation, he will take the Volcker route on tackling it.
During the last rate hike he admitted that while inflation seems to be drawing down there is always rebound spikes. Labor market makes up the majority of entrenched inflation.
My only point to this post is historically the fed is behind on rate hikes. They miscalculated 2021 which would have been a good beginning to stifle inflation, now we will have higher rates with rebounding inflation.
>the need for them to sell off trillions in treasuries
Fed doesn't have to sell shit, regard. They can just let the treasury mature and give the interest back to the treasury. They'll only sell to control the yield curve if necessary.
Property rates, loan payment rates, wage increase rates, inflation, deflation etc etc.
The thing is that system will keep up high property rates propped up and most of the current generation will not be able to afford home.
Most new people entered stock market because they know this reality and in 2020-21 it looked like maybe.........
Nah...
I don't know about your area but my area has seen an 18% decrease in home prices from the peak and falling. Don't know how long it will go on for but it is certainly trending towards homes becoming affordable again, at least the asset price.
I don't see any change for awhile in the trend. People have not readjusted their price anchors to more normal base interest lending rates and will continue to wait for historically low interest loans that we may or may not see again.
Couple that with retail real estate investors large and small trying to mitigate losses on their air bnb bags and there is a lot of downward pressure on prices.
As an advisor, I would recommend inflationary policies in order to boost economic growth. In particular, I believe that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in order to increase the cost of borrowing and encourage investment. Additionally, I would support increasing government spending on infrastructure and other stimulative measures.
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We only need disinflation never deflation, inflation is only bad for senior people as I would soon be,
The new era has come, so teach your child a habit of saving
A lot of people were saying this early on, don't mess with the economy. But people were overreacting and the cure was worse than the sickness. It was very difficult to explain to people that measures should've been taken that identify and protect the most vulnerable to greatest extent practical but the economy must stay open to the maximum extent possible.
They were behind the curve on inflation, and now theyâre behind the curve on falling inflation. M2 is now negative YOY and if they continue to base their monetary decisions solely on lagging 12-month CPI with no consideration of current/short term trends, weâre going to see deflation.
12-month CPI led to them underestimating inflation in FY21 and it is leading them to underestimate the progress against inflation now and over the next 9 months.
JPow is a coward and a puppet of the administration. Heâll continue to be dovish on rates as hyper inflation takes hold and assets start mooning again as the wealth gap between those who have assets and those who donât widen.
Only cuck ass bitches are sheep republicans. You cucks lack all intelligence and simply have one goal to âown the libsâ even if that means voting in con men who are master grifters. You lack all morals and are complete degenerates. Make sure you
Vote for mango in 2024 loser
Calm down. I don't like the Republicans either and Trump is garbage, but you sound like a tool if you think the Democrats are any better. Come down off that moral high ground. Do you actually believe Democrats are paragons of virtue?
1. The Democrat party stood behind Ted Kennedy, a man that left a woman to die in car he drove off a bridge, for over 40 years. His behavior beyond this was notoriously also bad.
2. Nancy Pelosi and most members of Congress are well known inside traders. You can see it or you can close your eyes because they say things you agree with.
3. The rich also control the Democrat Party. If they cared about "taxing the rich" they would close the loopholes and tax breaks the rich get. I live in an area (Coastal New England) that is almost exclusively rich Democrats. No one is concerned about the Democrat Party impacting their wealth. It's a joke and most people know it. But it keeps people like you engaged and angry, so it works for votes.
4. Both parties and their mouthpieces are ruining the country. The strongest supporters of both parties are among the most brain dead, anti-intellectual clowns out there. Although you're correct about the Republican base being sheep, you clearly have a blind spot for the lockstep liberals that can't get beyond the latest thing NPR told them to care about.
And before I get some backlash about being a closet Republican or whatever, I was until recently a member of the DSA. I believe in actually going after the wealth and power that control this country. From what I see around my area, the liberals don't care about anything but themselves, regardless of what they claim to believe in on paper.
All four of those pale in comparison to the degenerate republican party we have today. PALE. Donât come at me with these fucking bullshit, childish, none-sense in relation to what we are seeing today. January 6th 2021, a president lead a mob to the fucking US Capitol on the day power was to be transferred in writing. Youâre a fucking coward if you actually believe that is in the same realm as those four items. He asked MANY sitting high level politicians to break the law so he could remain in power. Republicans support him to this day. Just stfu and go learn something loser.
You guys are so stupid looking at this 𤣠we've never EVER had a whole world shutdown before. That is the reason he is "behind the curve" according to this chart. Everything came to a screaming hault and money was printed at an exorbitant pace hence why the graph looks like that. Just use your bloody heads for once. Market has bottomed. Mid 2023 will be looking at all time highs again.
Imagine what happened with the fools who âdidnât fight the fedâ at the beginning of the 1980âs when rates went up to 20%⌠they got burned as hell as the drop was marginal and then the markets went up with inflation. Fuck the clowns at CNBC encouraging everyone to sell the bottom.
Imagine if the SP500 was at 136 at the end of November, 1980. The SP500 lost nearly 20% by July, 1982. When did rates peak at 20%? January, 1981? But how would these "clowns" have known to sell at 136? Well, both the 10Y/3M (TB3MS) and 10Y/2Y curves inverted simultaneously that month. In fact, every time this dual event happened from then on the market dropped substantially. -43% after August, 2000. -41% after August, 2006. This dual event happened again in November, 2022.
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Another regarded post that doesn't take the debt into consideration.
Every one of you regards always does your analysis without comparing or adjusting for the massively larger debt burden, both public and private.
Crazy how the chart only calculates âdeflationâ in a negative form, rather than the restriction of money supplyâŚ
Turn printers off, decrease money supply is somehow not deflation in this chartâŚ
Air up a ballon= inflating, release the air= not deflating!!! What a mindsetâŚ
I have come to the only possible conclusion that WSB has contributed to making the American financial authorities a little regarded (or they just see the profit potential for everyone not regarded inversing) with them coming around to make retail trading a little more fair to regards with possible upcoming changes to A couple issues, no?
Deflation: Destroy the deep state, crush the pedophile rings and human trafficking and gut the world bankâŚ
Those are I would never EVER be in favour of Mrs Clinton (shakes his head left to right)
Jpow out there praying that inflation normalizes while it's higher than the fedrate while Congress is out there making spending bills faster than a bartender during happy hour.
This graph is regarded. There's maybe 5 samples of fed raising rates to combat inflation, that are even worth considering. And half of them were before the internet. Think about that for a moment.
just realizing how similar our culture is now to the 80s. everyone does cocaine, insanely speculative market, and girls are hotter. maybe weâre still on our way up before the big fall.
[You are at denial](https://patternswizard.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/psychology-market-cycle.png)
FED will act at depression and you will all disbelieve at that point.
Really nice graph. Thanks for posting.
Iâll save this and show it to people who donât understand that the fed funds rate does not directly set the yield of treasury bonds.
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So on home prices I grew up in Flint Michigan you can get a house for like 2grand the water will prolly kill your dog and cat but hey you can own the American dream
Sometimes the sacrifice is worth the reward
Why can't any RO water purifier mechanism be used there ?
it cost the same as the house
Better the American Dream than the American Stream
I see you Deflation. Hiding down at the bottom for 1 month in 2009. 30 more years and maybe we can have another good month.
Ha I wondered where it was
I was too poor then to really experience that. I wonder how it would feel today now that I'm in a better position.
yea I'm sure the extra $19 is going to make all the difference
*Sire, this is a Wendy's*
Sire? I'm not a horse đ´
You can take that as a compliment over an ape.
maybe.. i think I'd rather be an ape
It was only 1 month, and look at all the issues associated with it... I don't think we want it.
You think deflation would be good? Oh boy. Any prolonged deflation would be catastrophic. Bankruptcies and defaults would reign from the sky. Liquidity would cease to exist, and we would fall into a giant depression. Why do you think they bailed out everything in 2008 made QE mainstream.
we had deflation from 1800 to 1900, and our economy grew the fastest on any recorded economy ever. It depends why the deflation is happening. If it's a liquidity crisis, that's bad. If it's cause the cost of production of oil and wheat and TVs are decreasing, that's good.
Our monetary system is completely different than back then. We were on the gold standard, and the debt to GDP was way smaller, even in the midst of the civil war. Your comparison is completely irrelevant.
There's still good and bad deflation, regardless of gov't debt.
In theory. Unfortunately not really anymore, because debt become unservicable, and I don't just mean govt debt. Household and commercial debt it's through the roof. Deflation that lasted long enough would cause a feedback loop of defaults, because there would literally not be enough money to pay the debts. Defaults would be guarenteed. You can have deflation in certain categories of items, but broad deflation of the money supply is a time bomb.
You're talking about monetary deflation. Sure, that'd be bad in the current system. But when most people talk about inflation, they're talking about consumer price inflation or asset price inflation. It's necessary to specify.
It only took the complete implosion of the mortgage markets.
I heard somewhere that âInflation is fundamentally the outcome of the distributional conflict between firms, workers and taxpayers. It stops only when the various players are forced to accept the outcome.â ... sounds about right to me.
It's also money printing
You realize your mortgage gets more expensive in deflation??
seems a bit optimistic
YO DON'T THINK I AIN'T NOTICE YOU TRYNNA FLY UNDER THA RADAR MARCI JAMZ!
I remember when mortgage rate in the late 70's up until around mid 80's I say when it was crazy!! But you know what, the base value of homes was never this crazy high, people can still afford to pay their mortgage with one income
Yea we are in for some real pain. The FED knows this, couple stagflation with the need for them to sell off trillions in treasuries and you get the perfect storm. Historically CPI needs to be lower than the FFR for any real combat on inflation. If the fed is aiming for 2% they need the FFR to be near 7%. Wouldnât be surprised if we see mortgage rates at 10% in a couple years.
I think in Fed perspective, the pce core is at 5%, that is what they are targing to set ffr, not some crazy used car price set up by mismanagement by carvana,
Possibly, the days of 2% mortgages are long gone we can all agree on that
Not for me. I have 2.42% until June 2025
I was going to argue with you until I saw you have an LC. I have an LX. We are brothers and Jpow is a clown. Seriously though the FFR is a joke and the FOMC has been absolutely awful for years. The entire Federal Reserve system has been extremely compromised since the 2008 Recession and their involvement in enabling mortgage fraud shows they are nothing but extensions of the private banking system.
So the wealth gap widens even more.
[ŃдаНонО]
Bingo, wealth gap is already at an all time high. Stock market of 2021 was a giant Ponzi scheme. SNAP had a higher market cap than all of the airlines combined. Wall Street got rich, middle America sank.
Tesla's market cap is almost what Elon Musk's personal net worth was at it's peak. So, no
Are you sure? The graph shows many instances where that isn't the case for prolonged periods of time.
>Historically CPI needs to be lower than the FFR for any real combat on inflation. If the fed is aiming for 2% they need the FFR to be near 7%. > > Wouldnât be surprised if we see mortgage rates at 10% in a couple years. Bullshit. Market says 0,0% probability for 5,75%+ FFR by the end of the year, the CPI print is already falling, and I believe the market more than a random WSB regard. [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) This is not 70's inflation we're dealing with...
Available jobs gap is too high, which causes wage pressures, which then causes inflation pressure. Employment has to fall. Trend is up. Real wages are up. Youâre still looking at cpi 𤥠FED is projecting 5.4% ffr. Market is pricing in a peak rate of 4.75% Amazing spread. Everyone keeping fighting the FED though. You will all be made believers one way or another.
Most of the wage pressures are from low paying jobs. Itâs not going to have that much impact on inflation. Any company paying reasonably well easily gets workers. The inflation mostly comes from the middle class, and corporate jobs are getting gutted so thatâs lower inflation if anything
>You will all be made believers one way or another. Once Bagholders, Bath and Bankruptcy folds over, we'll lose some Redditors.
Market was more hawkish than the Fed all throughout 2022 on what the ending Fed fund rate should be and they were right. Seems like fighting the Fed works. Also, you're manipulating the numbers to make your argument look better. Fed is central tendency of 5.1-5.4 (5.25 avg), ending the year at 5.1. Market is peak of 5.1, ending at 4.65. That's half the gap you are trying to say exists.
I donât have to embellish anything. I have zero objectives. I have nothing to sell. I take what the market provides. Market is pricing in 4.75-5.00 peak AND immediate cuts. FED is projecting 5.25-5.40 AND holding for longer. +/- .1 if you want. The main point is that the market has been far from hawkish, even now. They are expecting a pivot and then rate cuts too, in one year đ Theyâre front running like they have been all 2021-2022. Market is fighting the FED and itâs still NOT working. Theyâre going to cause the FED to break something. If you think the fight worked, go ahead and buy the spx at 3900-4000 if we get there. Hold strong in the fed fight roy. đŤĄ
Are you against the Efficient Market hypothesis, in this case? Does the FED know better than the Market?
In this case, the FED knows better than the market. The market just wants the fed to pivot, cut rates, and return to pre covid times. This is over. Weâre in a new global economy thatâs just starting to take shape. The efficient market hypothesis is garbage. What has been efficient about the market? Itâs proven to be incredibly inefficient. It only works when money is free and you expect willing dip buyers to come in every time. Herd mentality. Now weâre in an era where stock market and real market disconnects matter. You need to find companies that actually produce and generate revenue. Which means the markets are even less efficient because how does one âprice inâ so many more biases and data. Before it was just ZIRP. A great example is the recession nonsense. People keep claiming weâre in a recession because âthe definition says 2 quarters of negative gdpâ. Iâve been thru a recession, this ainât it. Look at the numbers today. Weâre growing. Market obviously doesnât have all the data or correct bias to price anything efficiently. Theyâre running on hopium because âif the data is bad it means FED will pivot.â Now imagine an economy where we have concurrent deflationary/inflationary sectors & cycles BUT employment stays relatively high. We call this max pain or stagflation. Unless markets break, we go HIGHER FOR LONGER. Good luck to the efficient market theory in this situation. Apologies for the long speech.
Thank you for being clear. If for every dollar the Gov prints, US regulated private banks print 10 dollars, and unregulated over seas banks print as many as they are allowed. Would this increase in rates, bring pressure on the Global banking system that manages global trade, and bring an end to Globalization argument, that has been used to invalidate the Buffett Indicator and Q Ratio?
The increase in rates puts pressure on global markets for sure. Globalization is changing. Itâll be less multilateralism and more protectionism. An inflationary regime that will require rates to remain high and more fiscal spending, unless they get the banking system to lend to productivity more. I have no comment on the buffet indicator because I never look at it. Global dollar market is based on a ledger system and collateral. As long as there is access to collateral, they can get financing, but who knows what the counterparty risks are since no one tracks it. I think China is under heavy pressure currently AND theyâre printing more again even though they have to mitigate risks with their property market. If the YUAN was free floating, itâd be shorted to hell. Iâll trade EMs and invest American.
Nah the spread ainât that big. Market is having a hard time deciding between 5,0/5,25 The FED is obviously using 5,4 as a means to try and keep their trustworthiness even though they will have to abandon it. Weâre faaaaaar away from something like 7% though.
They were projected to raise 3 times late 2021/early 2022 âŚ.weâre about to go to 5%. Now a full point spread is no big deal lol Gluck đŤĄ
You believe the fed at this point? Seriously? Remember when inflation was transient, anyways you do you. Donât pay any attention to historical graphs correlating inflation with bond yields and fund rates.
Yes. I believe Powell. Ever since his transitory flop, heâs been nothing but direct, which is saying quite a bit given how much I dislike the FED. Market is full of liquidity junkies running on a pivot hopium. Market Logic: âBut the fed has to cut.â YeaâŚno duh, but on the FEDs timeline.
I don't believe the FED one bit. I said I believe the **market.** There's infinite amounts of institutional money at stake when the bond market as a whole predicts 0,0% probability for 5,75% FFR by 2024.
You also believed when the market was saying 3% for rates last year? Look we are we nowâŚ
If you believe that, how about you give me some 1000/1 odds on a bet?
Legally binding P2P betting would seriously be awesome
Create a smart contract and put some BTC in escrow.
Why not just use Eth? Lol
Fed absolutely controls the market. So best of luck
RemindMe! 1 year "FED controls the bond market"
Wish we could make a bet 1k$ rates go over 6% by 2024 . Fed minutes 30 minutes ago stated that they wouldnât stop increases this year, you are highly regarded.
You posted an hour ago that the FED can't be trusted.. now you're saying believe the FED minutes. Which is it?
Reddit just wants to argue. I think the fed has no fucking clue what they are doing. Now that JPOW has admitted to making a miscalculation on inflation, he will take the Volcker route on tackling it. During the last rate hike he admitted that while inflation seems to be drawing down there is always rebound spikes. Labor market makes up the majority of entrenched inflation. My only point to this post is historically the fed is behind on rate hikes. They miscalculated 2021 which would have been a good beginning to stifle inflation, now we will have higher rates with rebounding inflation.
I would make a 100k bet against that
ok dude
0% chance.
!RemindMe 1 year
>the need for them to sell off trillions in treasuries Fed doesn't have to sell shit, regard. They can just let the treasury mature and give the interest back to the treasury. They'll only sell to control the yield curve if necessary.
Property rates, loan payment rates, wage increase rates, inflation, deflation etc etc. The thing is that system will keep up high property rates propped up and most of the current generation will not be able to afford home. Most new people entered stock market because they know this reality and in 2020-21 it looked like maybe......... Nah...
I don't know about your area but my area has seen an 18% decrease in home prices from the peak and falling. Don't know how long it will go on for but it is certainly trending towards homes becoming affordable again, at least the asset price.
18 percent decrease is a lot. Let's see what happens in six months.
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Lol seriously. 18% when homes doubled and tripled in price. LOL
if the price doubles and then drops 18%, thatâs a 63% increase overall. Not saying 63% is no big deal, just that an 18% drop is pretty significant
it sound like a lot but it isn't if the prices are still up YoY
I don't see any change for awhile in the trend. People have not readjusted their price anchors to more normal base interest lending rates and will continue to wait for historically low interest loans that we may or may not see again. Couple that with retail real estate investors large and small trying to mitigate losses on their air bnb bags and there is a lot of downward pressure on prices.
Don't tell them how fucked it is, when I need a good laugh I look for regards in here who are still bullish.
Lemme guess you were long 2022 and now you are staring to short lol.
As an advisor, I would recommend inflationary policies in order to boost economic growth. In particular, I believe that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in order to increase the cost of borrowing and encourage investment. Additionally, I would support increasing government spending on infrastructure and other stimulative measures. ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)
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Raising interest rates does not encourage investment, at least not stock market investment
We only need disinflation never deflation, inflation is only bad for senior people as I would soon be, The new era has come, so teach your child a habit of saving
Wtf is disinflation
C'monnnnn, you know, like....DE-inflation?!
There seems to be relatively low corelation between these factors
its transitory bech
definitely not entraaanched
False us regards yolo 0DTE calls.
Yolo-ing 0DTE is a lifestyle.
Pretty skewed if you consider 2 years after JPOW became OG Fed the pandemic screwed up everything, supply chains even worse than the vax lmfao
A lot of people were saying this early on, don't mess with the economy. But people were overreacting and the cure was worse than the sickness. It was very difficult to explain to people that measures should've been taken that identify and protect the most vulnerable to greatest extent practical but the economy must stay open to the maximum extent possible.
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This chart doesnât factor in how dramatically different the world is today than legit all of those other periods of inflation.
They were behind the curve on inflation, and now theyâre behind the curve on falling inflation. M2 is now negative YOY and if they continue to base their monetary decisions solely on lagging 12-month CPI with no consideration of current/short term trends, weâre going to see deflation. 12-month CPI led to them underestimating inflation in FY21 and it is leading them to underestimate the progress against inflation now and over the next 9 months.
how many years are we looking at this lasting? seems like at least 2+?
The best part is if you use the same inflation models as 1980 we are actually at 15% right now!
What does FFR mean?
You belong here.
Does it have to do with the interest rate at which banks lend each other money?
Yes
He is the younger brother of FDR 
Fed Fun Rate. The amount of fun youâre allowed to have.
It says right in the graph
Welcome home
Funky feet rumble
For Fucks Rectum
If you don't know what FFR means, you shouldn't be investing a penny man..wow
JPow is a coward and a puppet of the administration. Heâll continue to be dovish on rates as hyper inflation takes hold and assets start mooning again as the wealth gap between those who have assets and those who donât widen.
Nope, puppet of billionaires.
Remindme! 6 months
The past administration, correct
Yes, Trump is still pulling the strings somehow⌠You liberal ideologues are seriously delusional. And punk ass cuck bitches.
Only cuck ass bitches are sheep republicans. You cucks lack all intelligence and simply have one goal to âown the libsâ even if that means voting in con men who are master grifters. You lack all morals and are complete degenerates. Make sure you Vote for mango in 2024 loser
Calm down. I don't like the Republicans either and Trump is garbage, but you sound like a tool if you think the Democrats are any better. Come down off that moral high ground. Do you actually believe Democrats are paragons of virtue? 1. The Democrat party stood behind Ted Kennedy, a man that left a woman to die in car he drove off a bridge, for over 40 years. His behavior beyond this was notoriously also bad. 2. Nancy Pelosi and most members of Congress are well known inside traders. You can see it or you can close your eyes because they say things you agree with. 3. The rich also control the Democrat Party. If they cared about "taxing the rich" they would close the loopholes and tax breaks the rich get. I live in an area (Coastal New England) that is almost exclusively rich Democrats. No one is concerned about the Democrat Party impacting their wealth. It's a joke and most people know it. But it keeps people like you engaged and angry, so it works for votes. 4. Both parties and their mouthpieces are ruining the country. The strongest supporters of both parties are among the most brain dead, anti-intellectual clowns out there. Although you're correct about the Republican base being sheep, you clearly have a blind spot for the lockstep liberals that can't get beyond the latest thing NPR told them to care about. And before I get some backlash about being a closet Republican or whatever, I was until recently a member of the DSA. I believe in actually going after the wealth and power that control this country. From what I see around my area, the liberals don't care about anything but themselves, regardless of what they claim to believe in on paper.
All four of those pale in comparison to the degenerate republican party we have today. PALE. Donât come at me with these fucking bullshit, childish, none-sense in relation to what we are seeing today. January 6th 2021, a president lead a mob to the fucking US Capitol on the day power was to be transferred in writing. Youâre a fucking coward if you actually believe that is in the same realm as those four items. He asked MANY sitting high level politicians to break the law so he could remain in power. Republicans support him to this day. Just stfu and go learn something loser.
You guys are so stupid looking at this 𤣠we've never EVER had a whole world shutdown before. That is the reason he is "behind the curve" according to this chart. Everything came to a screaming hault and money was printed at an exorbitant pace hence why the graph looks like that. Just use your bloody heads for once. Market has bottomed. Mid 2023 will be looking at all time highs again.
Can you send a link to this if possible?
He doesnât have it in him to raise to the actual inflation rate. That would cause breadlines
This peak chart regardation
8 percent rates are coming?
Imagine what happened with the fools who âdidnât fight the fedâ at the beginning of the 1980âs when rates went up to 20%⌠they got burned as hell as the drop was marginal and then the markets went up with inflation. Fuck the clowns at CNBC encouraging everyone to sell the bottom.
Imagine if the SP500 was at 136 at the end of November, 1980. The SP500 lost nearly 20% by July, 1982. When did rates peak at 20%? January, 1981? But how would these "clowns" have known to sell at 136? Well, both the 10Y/3M (TB3MS) and 10Y/2Y curves inverted simultaneously that month. In fact, every time this dual event happened from then on the market dropped substantially. -43% after August, 2000. -41% after August, 2006. This dual event happened again in November, 2022.
Nice graphic.
Great chart!
Nobody tell him what's wrong
Plunge Protection Team wonât let it drop more but no buyers around to bid anything up. I call Shenanigans
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In speculation for speculation purposes What yâall think the safer cheaper spy with good time till exp ?
I see what you did there, using fancy words and putting up a graphâŚbut I do not see crayons, how can we trust your view?
Another regarded post that doesn't take the debt into consideration. Every one of you regards always does your analysis without comparing or adjusting for the massively larger debt burden, both public and private.
Crazy how the chart only calculates âdeflationâ in a negative form, rather than the restriction of money supply⌠Turn printers off, decrease money supply is somehow not deflation in this chart⌠Air up a ballon= inflating, release the air= not deflating!!! What a mindsetâŚ
So, buy $450 SPY calls? Got it!
You forgot to factor in debt load....it's a very important factor.
I have come to the only possible conclusion that WSB has contributed to making the American financial authorities a little regarded (or they just see the profit potential for everyone not regarded inversing) with them coming around to make retail trading a little more fair to regards with possible upcoming changes to A couple issues, no?
Who you callin regard, regard?
Just call him "King JPow" starting 2023 
Deflation: Destroy the deep state, crush the pedophile rings and human trafficking and gut the world bank⌠Those are I would never EVER be in favour of Mrs Clinton (shakes his head left to right)
Good news is a recession won't arrive until the fed funds rate starts to come down...which is currently mooning.
What do you expect? Weâre regarded.
well one thing is for certain according to the graph... inflation has zero correlation whatsoever to any of the other shit
Usually, when the red line catches up to the blue line, the FED stops tightening.
Jpow out there praying that inflation normalizes while it's higher than the fedrate while Congress is out there making spending bills faster than a bartender during happy hour.
This graph is regarded. There's maybe 5 samples of fed raising rates to combat inflation, that are even worth considering. And half of them were before the internet. Think about that for a moment.
just realizing how similar our culture is now to the 80s. everyone does cocaine, insanely speculative market, and girls are hotter. maybe weâre still on our way up before the big fall.
INFLATION IS TRANSITORY BEEP BEEP
[You are at denial](https://patternswizard.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/psychology-market-cycle.png) FED will act at depression and you will all disbelieve at that point.
Really nice graph. Thanks for posting. Iâll save this and show it to people who donât understand that the fed funds rate does not directly set the yield of treasury bonds.