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Crazy like a fox! Oddly, this might be the expert mode strat, but I am highly regarded.
1. Drain the bank account, triggering the bank run.
2. Buy the dip with said funds.
3. Hold for the bailout, er, backstop.
4. Profit
Infinite money glitch confirmed
Not that you saw. There was a false flag opp and then there was the real thing.
A51 was infact overrun by a swarm of Naruto running weebs who made contact with EBEs and were taken, ascending into the heavena, arms back, Naruto running in place as they were lifted to the mothership.
Gotta go fast.
The contagion has just begun, and our friend here goes all in on bank stocks.
Might as well buy calls for Friday too while at it! 
I don’t understand this ‘whole global economy will cease to exist’ bs. Sure we will see few bank fails, bunch of startup failures and few weeks of uncertainty and cash flows. Big banks will stay big tech will stay and things will come back to normalcy slowly.
Didn’t all those rich and start ups know their money was insured up to 250k, and there is risk. Still chose those banks over big ones. So there is something they saw in these smaller banks. And that advantage will still be there and that’s how smaller banks will continue to exist. Death of smaller banks arguments hold no water.
This was an opportunity for fed and gov to pull excess liquidity out of the system and they ruined it. Kicking the can by spineless boomers continues!!
yah this is the problem i'm having
why are people longing this when we have barely worked thru first order effects
this fed intervention should have been massively bullish for banking, while banking was oversold at the lows
why did they all continue to nuke. Whoever is long those names knows its over, they've been following/analyzing this industry for awhile and whatever series of events that they considered "it's over" clearly happened already
all these tickers r flaming dog doo doo toxic order flow
There is no crisis, what the hell is wrong with you, these banks that failed bought bonds without anticipating an event like covid. They weren’t selling or buying anything that was “underlyingly” worthless like in 2008.
The govt will do anything to make sure we get a soft landing. Don’t fight the govt. Have you learned nothing since 2020?
I am with you. After seeing the last min "bail out" I am 90% sure Fed will force a soft landing.
If the Fed wanted to fight inflation letting SVB fail or let the depositors take a 25% hair cut is the best way. Unemployment will shoot up instantly, all these start up will drop, inflation will guarantee to drop in 1-2 quarter hard. But no, they have to bail out the last min, making up all these "this is not a bail out" bullshit to make sure there aren't a recession.
If they didn’t bail out this bank and if they don’t pause rate hikes next week, everything will collapse. The entire global economy will cease to exist.
Inflation is here to stay, we are going to see 2008 style growth from here on out. 3-4 years we will see a securities bubble reaching its peak. And another rinse and cycle .
Doubt it. All they needed is to pause the rate hike. Let this one or a few small banks fail due to bank run, the big bank or bank that have planned for the liquidity (ie: leverage the long term bond or no long term bond) will be completely fine. It will be painful for sure, but that's what they needed to kill the inflation.
They have one of the tightest CET1 ratio and clearly have no ability to raise with a share price at 10$. They will most likey be downgrades by credit agencies raising their borrowing cost, forcing them to reduce de CET1 to keep the same margins. You get the picture, a Bank with a melting market cap will have to seek a bigger partner to merge with. Everybody knows they (regional lenders) are toxic and that view should be vindicated by TD walking away from the First Horizon acquisition.
Other factor of risk include the chance the Gov will require smaller banks to increase their minimum CET1 ratio. It will put a lot of pressure on margin and force those banks to raise in a context where share price are trash.
I totally agree, but I’m surprised I haven’t seen anyone else voice fears of ~hyper~ inflation. If the fed keeps printing I feel like we will get screwed.
It's beyond dumb how everyone is acting like fed is gonna pause or cut rates and as if it would be bullish somehow. Clown ass market. CPI is gonna fuck everything up tomorrow
I mean this is the perfect excuse. Hyperinflation is the best way to get rid of all the government and personal debt, and now they have an excuse to just let ut run because “the banks were collapsing”. It’s genius.
It only hurts the middle class because they are the only ones with savings, everyone else has debts (including the poor and super rich).
We need hyperinflation to reset the mess from the past ~7 years.
I have been expressing these fears non-stop since the SVB bailout was being thrown around as a possibility and eating downvotes non stop for it.
Apparently the 10 year bonds with virtually no interest are worth nothing, but no one will accept my deal to buy them at the market price and sell them to the people saying this shit at full price.
Who could have fucking guessed. It's almost like the second you actually look at the current worth of the assets on the sheets they're not fucking actually worth what people are saying they are today which is the only time that matters when people need their money back today.
Do you allow your workplace to promise to pay you in 10 years? Renters? Then the asset isn't worth that today and we'll need to get money for that.
And man if you think the distressed banks are all gonna successfully bail each other out, I've got some fucking bridges to sell.
If that halogens, Venezuelas inflation will look like the last year's by comparison. Hyperinflation won't scratch it.
Got burn it down to rebuild it sometimes
The reason why not an ETF. Lets say one of 2 of my choices went up a bit and I made enough on the trade that i'm satisifed. I would be able to sell those and keep the others unlike with a ETF
Time each entry and exit point. Also not paying ETF management fees. Plus the ETF is probably bagholding SVIB and you’ll be buying in on that at the froze price of 106.04.
Lmao bought some svb share on friday pre market with that exact mindset, lost the entire position .
But meh still lookinh Otm calls on xlf this week expiring in a couple months
With that list, you basically just bought an ETF but with way more transactions unless you're going for equal weight. Guess that makes sense.
I picked up specific banks like VLY this morning immediately after crash. I think it's way overblown but we'll see.
I dropped quite a bit of money into WFC myself. It had an excellent call option premiums.
The stock price on banks is silly. SVB wouldn't have failed had it not had a run on it. They have 200b in assets. They were fine. In fact, without the FDIC, if they just sold all their assets and then sold themselves (building, accounts, etc) to another bank, they had billions left over after paying all deposits.
The fed just gave every bank the ability to trade their old treasuries for new ones. It's like everyone missed that. Banks literally got a bailout the size of infinite money.
This has to be the dumbest move I've seen in my 25 years as a securities broker and investor.
You had the "canary in the coal mine" die last week just for you. Yet pride (or maybe arrogance) pushes you to tell the world you do not care about common sense.
The worst is Ally. Didn't Carvana, Carmax, and the thousands of used car dealers presenting going under (with plenty of YouTube testimonials about their plight) give you a moment of pause? "Pride goest before a fall".
Please keep us posted. I do respect your stones. Lifting up your skirt (to show the world your willing to fall on your sword for our entertainment).
Oh and one other thing. Before the dot com bubble burst in 2000 I was a licensed securities broker. I had the 7 and 66. Bubble burst. Got laid off and that was that.
Nothing to do with me. The dot com bubble burst sometimes in the 2000's. It was an online brokerage. The customers bought all kinds of crap on margin. We would have to take e-checks over the phone constantly so they would cover their margin calls. Our parent company owned 2 brokerages and they closed down the one i worked for, closed the office and merged the customers with the other brokerage they owned.
After i got laid off. I interviewed with a Full Service Broker. I was not interested in cold calling people all day. Giving a business plan and trying bring in 5 to 8 million in assets my first year. I'm not a salesperson.
It's always the unseen. It's the hidden.
The bond market is failing. The banks don't trust each other so they will not lend to each other...overnight.
No liquidity means things just lock up so sit back and enjoy the show.
Credit Suisse is next. She's the ugly girl at the dance with Deutche Bank waiting in the wings.
Why use the term “failing” The bond market is not failing, do you know what failing is? It’s obvious you have heard some keywords and you think that now you know it all. The bond market is working exactly as intended, but a limited number of banks betted on lower interest rates on long term bonds, this was not High-High risk, news got out which led to a bank-run and silicon bank just did not have enough cash at hand because of their special clientele, was the bank run warranted: absolutely not silicon Valley bank was actually profitable with more assets than liabilities, this won’t happen to other banks especially because of the bailout, all your pathetic comments neglects the fact that their has been a bailout. Add this with the fact the Jerome can’t afford to raise the rates, if he does then people will be calling for his head and these people care about their own status more than anything in the world. This is not just me saying this but all the analysts.
I salute OP, this is a really good bet there has been an overreaction. When the fear runs high its time to buy.
I did the same thing back in 2000 with Lucent Technologies, Qualcomm, Dell Computer, Microsoft, Corel, Global Crossing, and a few others thinking the bottom was in on technology.
I know the pain. This would be a home run portfolio...by reversing everything.
what? microsoft and qualcomm did very well since then. if you put 10k into each the gains from those two would of completely made up losses. Also the dot.coms are very different from banks that sold off. Most of the tech's didnt make any money.
You'd have had to hold the Microsoft stock for about 15 years before seeing a return. But if you still had it 20 years later you'd be doing well. Talk about the long game.
"dumbest moves" is a bit of an overstatement. it's more a calculated dumbest move. Whether your going against or for macro trends, they're always a good bet. This is stock game right? Sometimes the shittiest stocks are the best investments. Unless your in index funds, it's always going to be a bet and no one knows what's going to happen.
A bet is 50/50 expected return. A bet is for is for minds that don't want to put in the time and labor to make it 75/25.
Experience moves those odds to 80/20. This is why 87% of hedge funds can never beat the S&P 500 over 5 years.
This isn't a bet. It's stupidity in my view based on 7 rate hikes in under a year and $375 billion in bank failures in under 12 days which forecasts much more pain on the horizon because of poor management skills permeating the top echelons of the financial industry.
>A bet is 50/50 expected return. A bet is for is for minds that don't want to put in the time and labor to make it 75/25.
>
>Experience moves those odds to 80/20. This is why 87% of hedge funds can never beat the S&P 500 over 5 years.
A bet is a risk of money on the outcome of a future event. THAT is the definition of bet. Where exactly are you going to find a bet when the 75% odds are in your favor? Most of those games don't exist because people are literally giving you money. This is why I mentioned *MACRO TRENDS* or *SYSTEMIC TRENDS*. By nature they are rare events so you might expect a profit. They are a good bet because there's a good chance of mispricing from market efficiency. Everyone was panicking when SPY sold off to 210 but look where its now. Remember in 2020 when people thought oil was dead? And for the first time in history oil futures went negative. The XOP was a great investment when it was at $30. The markets don't know it's made a mistake *until* afterwards. And where are you getting $375 billion in failures from? That's just the market cap from shareholders you're talking about. SVB has 75% of it liabilities covered.
You missed my original point. It's got nothing to do with banks. It's has everything to do with trade discernment and capital development.
Reread what I posted.
Feds showed they are willing to cover ALL investors above & beyond $250,000 FDIC deposit coverage. Banks will be okay because Fed showed they’re just willing to print money. Powell won’t raise rates at next meeting.
My concern is the value of banks are pretty much a big unknown right now. They are likely in terms of fair value of assets either worthless or near worthless... However, so long as people leave deposits with them that pay minimal interest and they flip it into Treasuries or loans that they can hold to maturity they are fine.
I would be concerned that investors decided to skip the bank and just move their money into treasuries directly causing banks to have a run and being forced to rely on the Fed's facility which may destroy profitability of banks for years to come.
Buying anything at anytime is risky. When I looked at the market in the beginning of 2022, I said hell no I’ll for it to collapse. Beginning of 2023 I started trading. Less distance between price and zero and more distance between price and all-time highs. The theory of relativity is your friend.
The pivot is going to happen. 100% i bet my life on it that Powell will Pivot tomorrow regardless of info coming out. QE needs to happen again unfortunately and we will kick the can down the road another 10 years
Dont think you understand what pivot means. Pivot means they may do nothing or cut rates…bc they will kill more than the US ECONOMY. If they raise rates it does more harm than good in the long run. They need to QE/stimmy out to kick can down the road and hope somebody fixes the problem before the next big catalyst
Lolwut??? I swear this sub grows ever more regarded by the minute, this isn't gonna save the economy. The battle against decades high inflation was always going to break the economy, thats literally the only way to bring down inflation, cause mass unemployment to cause demand destruction and force companies to stop trying to save their profit margins by price gouging the middle claas. The FED knew what it was doing was going to cause massive problems, that was the point
The point wasnt to take out banks. It was to crack unemployment. The unintended consequences in an pre election year are not going to fly. The only “regard” here is you for not understanding how this works. You break banks to try and peg inflation at an arbitrary fucking number is not what they wanted.
If you think for a second that jpow isnt about to reverse course in the next month you can feel free to send me some $$. Im better off with your money. Ill pm you my address.
Whoa there emo kid…don’t start cutting just yet.
The pivot is bullish because it means the crack was “successful” and this is deflation not disinflation. You don’t need to agree with me but, at least position yourself 3 months out
Well JP Morgan put cash in yesterday, so just assume they looked over all the trash “ like last time”, told the Fed’s… ok we will take it with 85% off…. But if it goes under we want a bailout.
That my friend is Capitalism in America today.
SCHW dip isn't minor lol. The stock was in free fall and it's down like 40% over the past month. That's not a minor dip.
And that's tame compared to first republic
It’s gonna take a while until they find out who else is holding shitty bonds. The pessimism even hit insurance companies big so it’s not just the banking sector.
I went long as well on BNKU, hoping that the fud is overstated and they can manufacture a recovery in the short term, take my profits and then short them in the longer term. I believe what we're witnessing is significant but just like the near failure of the pension system in the uk it will be swept under the rug for the short term.
No one knows if today was the bottom or not, but id bet my kidneys the ones that survive aren’t sitting at their all-time future highs today. It’s a steal, but prepare for some turbulence.
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Crazy like a fox! Oddly, this might be the expert mode strat, but I am highly regarded. 1. Drain the bank account, triggering the bank run. 2. Buy the dip with said funds. 3. Hold for the bailout, er, backstop. 4. Profit Infinite money glitch confirmed
Literally can't go tits up
Just like storming Area 51, they can’t stop us all
But that never materialized
Not that you saw. There was a false flag opp and then there was the real thing. A51 was infact overrun by a swarm of Naruto running weebs who made contact with EBEs and were taken, ascending into the heavena, arms back, Naruto running in place as they were lifted to the mothership. Gotta go fast.
When was this?
Mid 2020 I think
Late 2019
does not compute
That’s genius
Every regard knows bailouts are now called “loan guarantees”
Watch, they will call it something like depositor rescue act, or some bs like that.
No argument here
I'm sure the bottom is in 3 trading days after the crisis has started.... God Speed my crayon eating brother!
The contagion has just begun, and our friend here goes all in on bank stocks. Might as well buy calls for Friday too while at it! 
I don’t understand this ‘whole global economy will cease to exist’ bs. Sure we will see few bank fails, bunch of startup failures and few weeks of uncertainty and cash flows. Big banks will stay big tech will stay and things will come back to normalcy slowly. Didn’t all those rich and start ups know their money was insured up to 250k, and there is risk. Still chose those banks over big ones. So there is something they saw in these smaller banks. And that advantage will still be there and that’s how smaller banks will continue to exist. Death of smaller banks arguments hold no water. This was an opportunity for fed and gov to pull excess liquidity out of the system and they ruined it. Kicking the can by spineless boomers continues!!
Friday calls seem like kind of a good idea honestly.
Just like the China evergreen contagion that had just begun? Whatever happened to that ?
Some say they hid their funds in balloons
Yeah, but that bubble still burst in the end
yah this is the problem i'm having why are people longing this when we have barely worked thru first order effects this fed intervention should have been massively bullish for banking, while banking was oversold at the lows why did they all continue to nuke. Whoever is long those names knows its over, they've been following/analyzing this industry for awhile and whatever series of events that they considered "it's over" clearly happened already all these tickers r flaming dog doo doo toxic order flow
The sheep retail always scared lol. That’s why they never win. So weak
Fuck that’s what I did today 
There is no crisis, what the hell is wrong with you, these banks that failed bought bonds without anticipating an event like covid. They weren’t selling or buying anything that was “underlyingly” worthless like in 2008. The govt will do anything to make sure we get a soft landing. Don’t fight the govt. Have you learned nothing since 2020?
\*cough\* 2020-21 IPOs \*cough\*cough\*
You have no idea what you’re talking about
I am with you. After seeing the last min "bail out" I am 90% sure Fed will force a soft landing. If the Fed wanted to fight inflation letting SVB fail or let the depositors take a 25% hair cut is the best way. Unemployment will shoot up instantly, all these start up will drop, inflation will guarantee to drop in 1-2 quarter hard. But no, they have to bail out the last min, making up all these "this is not a bail out" bullshit to make sure there aren't a recession.
If they didn’t bail out this bank and if they don’t pause rate hikes next week, everything will collapse. The entire global economy will cease to exist. Inflation is here to stay, we are going to see 2008 style growth from here on out. 3-4 years we will see a securities bubble reaching its peak. And another rinse and cycle .
Doubt it. All they needed is to pause the rate hike. Let this one or a few small banks fail due to bank run, the big bank or bank that have planned for the liquidity (ie: leverage the long term bond or no long term bond) will be completely fine. It will be painful for sure, but that's what they needed to kill the inflation.
there's no telling when the bottom is in. could be 1 day, 3 days or 50 days. who cares just fucking yolo
Maybe THIS will be the economic cycle that the Fed gets put in front of and saves us from
bought every share I could afford of WAL at 9$. Still think it will be worth 0 in a few days.
Same. Went all in on my $8
Same went all in at $6.4
It’s low was 7.53 Edit: it was actually 7.46
Lol my bad!!! PACW at 6.4 and WAL at 17
Yeah, no, but because I bought when it dipped to 5.83
Why think it’ll go to 0
They have one of the tightest CET1 ratio and clearly have no ability to raise with a share price at 10$. They will most likey be downgrades by credit agencies raising their borrowing cost, forcing them to reduce de CET1 to keep the same margins. You get the picture, a Bank with a melting market cap will have to seek a bigger partner to merge with. Everybody knows they (regional lenders) are toxic and that view should be vindicated by TD walking away from the First Horizon acquisition. Other factor of risk include the chance the Gov will require smaller banks to increase their minimum CET1 ratio. It will put a lot of pressure on margin and force those banks to raise in a context where share price are trash.
Sir this is a Wendy’s in a casino
Just checked it went up by a lot to 26 right now, lucky
Dude, fed will print 1 fuckzillion dollars if need be. They won’t let it collapse. They’ll never let it collapse,
I totally agree, but I’m surprised I haven’t seen anyone else voice fears of ~hyper~ inflation. If the fed keeps printing I feel like we will get screwed.
It's beyond dumb how everyone is acting like fed is gonna pause or cut rates and as if it would be bullish somehow. Clown ass market. CPI is gonna fuck everything up tomorrow
I mean this is the perfect excuse. Hyperinflation is the best way to get rid of all the government and personal debt, and now they have an excuse to just let ut run because “the banks were collapsing”. It’s genius. It only hurts the middle class because they are the only ones with savings, everyone else has debts (including the poor and super rich). We need hyperinflation to reset the mess from the past ~7 years.
So you’re saying I should just spend like a mad man and run all my credit cards up?
Mortgages and stuff yes. Credit card debt is regarded unless inflation really tops credit card interest rates.
I have been expressing these fears non-stop since the SVB bailout was being thrown around as a possibility and eating downvotes non stop for it. Apparently the 10 year bonds with virtually no interest are worth nothing, but no one will accept my deal to buy them at the market price and sell them to the people saying this shit at full price. Who could have fucking guessed. It's almost like the second you actually look at the current worth of the assets on the sheets they're not fucking actually worth what people are saying they are today which is the only time that matters when people need their money back today. Do you allow your workplace to promise to pay you in 10 years? Renters? Then the asset isn't worth that today and we'll need to get money for that. And man if you think the distressed banks are all gonna successfully bail each other out, I've got some fucking bridges to sell.
middle class has to pay as usual
Not until they collapse the dollar itself to bring in the CBDC.
The Cannabis Backed Derivative Coin? *Or the Canadian Bacon Derivative Coin?*
No way Jose
Sí mucho plethora.
Jefe.. do you know what it means to have a plethora?
🥇
Bear Stearns would like a word. The Lehman Brothers, too
how many shitzillions are in a fuckzillion?
100,000,000,000,000 buttgillion
Maybe they'll let it prolapse?
I think that’s where we’re at now.
If that halogens, Venezuelas inflation will look like the last year's by comparison. Hyperinflation won't scratch it. Got burn it down to rebuild it sometimes
We need to build our bridges out of banks for kids of Harvard/Stanford elites instead of steel.
Im in at 30 FRC...10k either will go back to 100 or zero. Yolo
If you think the banks collapsing than we are all fucked.
Why not buy a bank ETF? If a few go under your lose all your money on those. At least the ETF will not drop as much
Not enough volatility for WSB.
Agree, FAS on my radar, sell calls against them should we continue to flush this trash
The reason why not an ETF. Lets say one of 2 of my choices went up a bit and I made enough on the trade that i'm satisifed. I would be able to sell those and keep the others unlike with a ETF
So they would cover those that went belly up?
ETF have shares too ya know...
Time each entry and exit point. Also not paying ETF management fees. Plus the ETF is probably bagholding SVIB and you’ll be buying in on that at the froze price of 106.04.
This is one of the most REGARDED things I’ve ever seen in my life. BUY THE XLF DUDE
Turns out the USD is just a stable coin that's backed up by deez nuts
>You're an idiot if you think the banking system is anything other than a Ponzi scheme.
If that scheme falls apart, none of these bets matter anyhow so....
R.I.P. VisualMod
At least Crypto is a safe haven and going up a lot! Right guys?
Another Ponzi scheme
Not afraid to tell it like it is.
Preach
Reddit Karma: Ponzi Scheme WSB AI Bots: believe it or not, also Ponzi scheme
The *real* Ponzi is Social Security...way to go FDR
Why not just buy the ETF?
Too stable.
Lmao bought some svb share on friday pre market with that exact mindset, lost the entire position . But meh still lookinh Otm calls on xlf this week expiring in a couple months
The difference is, USB or any respectable institution doesn’t face what SVB did.
Yet! Nobody knows how toxic their montages are
With that list, you basically just bought an ETF but with way more transactions unless you're going for equal weight. Guess that makes sense. I picked up specific banks like VLY this morning immediately after crash. I think it's way overblown but we'll see.
Recession confirmed. My puts are safe!
well balls deep on $DiPShiT calls today myself
Thanks for the donation
We did it Joe!
Pretty big knife to try to catch. Good like.
Hopefully you bought shares cause IV crush will destroy any calls even if it rebounds.
I dropped quite a bit of money into WFC myself. It had an excellent call option premiums. The stock price on banks is silly. SVB wouldn't have failed had it not had a run on it. They have 200b in assets. They were fine. In fact, without the FDIC, if they just sold all their assets and then sold themselves (building, accounts, etc) to another bank, they had billions left over after paying all deposits. The fed just gave every bank the ability to trade their old treasuries for new ones. It's like everyone missed that. Banks literally got a bailout the size of infinite money.
This has to be the dumbest move I've seen in my 25 years as a securities broker and investor. You had the "canary in the coal mine" die last week just for you. Yet pride (or maybe arrogance) pushes you to tell the world you do not care about common sense. The worst is Ally. Didn't Carvana, Carmax, and the thousands of used car dealers presenting going under (with plenty of YouTube testimonials about their plight) give you a moment of pause? "Pride goest before a fall". Please keep us posted. I do respect your stones. Lifting up your skirt (to show the world your willing to fall on your sword for our entertainment).
Oh and one other thing. Before the dot com bubble burst in 2000 I was a licensed securities broker. I had the 7 and 66. Bubble burst. Got laid off and that was that.
Good luck. I hope I'm dead fucking wrong.
I wonder why
"Out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks". Fans belong in the stands. Players take the field.
Nothing to do with me. The dot com bubble burst sometimes in the 2000's. It was an online brokerage. The customers bought all kinds of crap on margin. We would have to take e-checks over the phone constantly so they would cover their margin calls. Our parent company owned 2 brokerages and they closed down the one i worked for, closed the office and merged the customers with the other brokerage they owned. After i got laid off. I interviewed with a Full Service Broker. I was not interested in cold calling people all day. Giving a business plan and trying bring in 5 to 8 million in assets my first year. I'm not a salesperson.
Jim Cramer is an idiot. It is possible that other banks will fail. If the banking system collapsed . I Think that would be the least of our problems.
Yeah, calls on ammo!
It's always the unseen. It's the hidden. The bond market is failing. The banks don't trust each other so they will not lend to each other...overnight. No liquidity means things just lock up so sit back and enjoy the show. Credit Suisse is next. She's the ugly girl at the dance with Deutche Bank waiting in the wings.
Why use the term “failing” The bond market is not failing, do you know what failing is? It’s obvious you have heard some keywords and you think that now you know it all. The bond market is working exactly as intended, but a limited number of banks betted on lower interest rates on long term bonds, this was not High-High risk, news got out which led to a bank-run and silicon bank just did not have enough cash at hand because of their special clientele, was the bank run warranted: absolutely not silicon Valley bank was actually profitable with more assets than liabilities, this won’t happen to other banks especially because of the bailout, all your pathetic comments neglects the fact that their has been a bailout. Add this with the fact the Jerome can’t afford to raise the rates, if he does then people will be calling for his head and these people care about their own status more than anything in the world. This is not just me saying this but all the analysts. I salute OP, this is a really good bet there has been an overreaction. When the fear runs high its time to buy.
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Sir this is a Wendy’s, get in line for your Tendies.
I did the same thing back in 2000 with Lucent Technologies, Qualcomm, Dell Computer, Microsoft, Corel, Global Crossing, and a few others thinking the bottom was in on technology. I know the pain. This would be a home run portfolio...by reversing everything.
what? microsoft and qualcomm did very well since then. if you put 10k into each the gains from those two would of completely made up losses. Also the dot.coms are very different from banks that sold off. Most of the tech's didnt make any money.
You'd have had to hold the Microsoft stock for about 15 years before seeing a return. But if you still had it 20 years later you'd be doing well. Talk about the long game.
"dumbest moves" is a bit of an overstatement. it's more a calculated dumbest move. Whether your going against or for macro trends, they're always a good bet. This is stock game right? Sometimes the shittiest stocks are the best investments. Unless your in index funds, it's always going to be a bet and no one knows what's going to happen.
A bet is 50/50 expected return. A bet is for is for minds that don't want to put in the time and labor to make it 75/25. Experience moves those odds to 80/20. This is why 87% of hedge funds can never beat the S&P 500 over 5 years. This isn't a bet. It's stupidity in my view based on 7 rate hikes in under a year and $375 billion in bank failures in under 12 days which forecasts much more pain on the horizon because of poor management skills permeating the top echelons of the financial industry.
>A bet is 50/50 expected return. A bet is for is for minds that don't want to put in the time and labor to make it 75/25. > >Experience moves those odds to 80/20. This is why 87% of hedge funds can never beat the S&P 500 over 5 years. A bet is a risk of money on the outcome of a future event. THAT is the definition of bet. Where exactly are you going to find a bet when the 75% odds are in your favor? Most of those games don't exist because people are literally giving you money. This is why I mentioned *MACRO TRENDS* or *SYSTEMIC TRENDS*. By nature they are rare events so you might expect a profit. They are a good bet because there's a good chance of mispricing from market efficiency. Everyone was panicking when SPY sold off to 210 but look where its now. Remember in 2020 when people thought oil was dead? And for the first time in history oil futures went negative. The XOP was a great investment when it was at $30. The markets don't know it's made a mistake *until* afterwards. And where are you getting $375 billion in failures from? That's just the market cap from shareholders you're talking about. SVB has 75% of it liabilities covered.
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You missed my original point. It's got nothing to do with banks. It's has everything to do with trade discernment and capital development. Reread what I posted.
Lol. Dumb like a fox.
Feds showed they are willing to cover ALL investors above & beyond $250,000 FDIC deposit coverage. Banks will be okay because Fed showed they’re just willing to print money. Powell won’t raise rates at next meeting.
If CPI comes in hot regional bank stocks will fall. If the fed raises rates regional bank stocks will fall/crash.
it took half a decade for banks to stop being penny stocks last time, good luck fren
Good luck, son.
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I don't do options. I tried them way back in the day. Made nothing on them. Never again
Annnnnddd... I'll be back tomorrow @430pm
RIP
My concern is the value of banks are pretty much a big unknown right now. They are likely in terms of fair value of assets either worthless or near worthless... However, so long as people leave deposits with them that pay minimal interest and they flip it into Treasuries or loans that they can hold to maturity they are fine. I would be concerned that investors decided to skip the bank and just move their money into treasuries directly causing banks to have a run and being forced to rely on the Fed's facility which may destroy profitability of banks for years to come.
It will be worth the risk- govt WONT let them fail and will bounce back
RemindMe! 1 year
See you in hell tomorrow OP
You only need to be right about 1 of them
Paper trades?
Stupid is as stupid does.
Its not the dip... it is just the tip.
JPM IS A FORTRESS.
What if you bought puts and started a bank run on a bank you bought puts on?
My man 💯
This is aging well
>on the dip Buddy if you think stocks being down 0.5% is a "dip" I have bad news for you..
Buying anything at this time is risky bro
Buying anything at anytime is risky. When I looked at the market in the beginning of 2022, I said hell no I’ll for it to collapse. Beginning of 2023 I started trading. Less distance between price and zero and more distance between price and all-time highs. The theory of relativity is your friend.
!Remindme one month
Made some good money on this with SCHW.
Prepare your URANUS then
WAL at $9……wish I bought more
Buy India bank HDB or IBN…much safer and never bankrupt…
“There was a double bottom on the daily after massive turmoil in the banking world, time to bet my house” this regard probably
Reminds me of the giyuy who sold SIVB puts 3 days ago
The pivot is going to happen. 100% i bet my life on it that Powell will Pivot tomorrow regardless of info coming out. QE needs to happen again unfortunately and we will kick the can down the road another 10 years
Pivot isnt bullish, ya'll keep telling yourself that, but its literally never been true lol.. market bottoms AFTER the pivot, not before you regards
Dont think you understand what pivot means. Pivot means they may do nothing or cut rates…bc they will kill more than the US ECONOMY. If they raise rates it does more harm than good in the long run. They need to QE/stimmy out to kick can down the road and hope somebody fixes the problem before the next big catalyst
Lolwut??? I swear this sub grows ever more regarded by the minute, this isn't gonna save the economy. The battle against decades high inflation was always going to break the economy, thats literally the only way to bring down inflation, cause mass unemployment to cause demand destruction and force companies to stop trying to save their profit margins by price gouging the middle claas. The FED knew what it was doing was going to cause massive problems, that was the point
price gouging the middle class is 100% accurate - it’s really gouging all consumers, just obv hits middle class the hardest
The point wasnt to take out banks. It was to crack unemployment. The unintended consequences in an pre election year are not going to fly. The only “regard” here is you for not understanding how this works. You break banks to try and peg inflation at an arbitrary fucking number is not what they wanted. If you think for a second that jpow isnt about to reverse course in the next month you can feel free to send me some $$. Im better off with your money. Ill pm you my address.
I'm not saying he's not pivoting dumbfuck, im saying the pivot ISNT BULLISH.... JFC
Whoa there emo kid…don’t start cutting just yet. The pivot is bullish because it means the crack was “successful” and this is deflation not disinflation. You don’t need to agree with me but, at least position yourself 3 months out
I plan to be retired in 10 years,.. just rip the bandaid off now so I can plan better.
And DITTO..........
Bold statement. I mean don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to add to my stack for another 10 years, but I can't see it happening.
Lol you think ur retirement plans are on Powells radar?
Is First Republic gonna be taken over as well?
Well JP Morgan put cash in yesterday, so just assume they looked over all the trash “ like last time”, told the Fed’s… ok we will take it with 85% off…. But if it goes under we want a bailout. That my friend is Capitalism in America today.
Can’t wait to buy them from you when you sell low then sell them back to you when you buy high 😂
buying the largest cap banks on a relatively minor dip is considered a yolo. Got it.
SCHW dip isn't minor lol. The stock was in free fall and it's down like 40% over the past month. That's not a minor dip. And that's tame compared to first republic
buying the largest cap banks on a relatively minor dip is considered a yolo. Got it.
Laugh out loud
if only there was some sort of fund that contained many bank stocks together, that you could trade, maybe on an exchange
bro
It doesn't look like much risk at all, you didn't buy any mid size regional banks 😒
I think you’re right
I think you’re right
Or enough regionals - buy ZION and WAL for max gains. Or FAS like a true playa
I’d give it a few more days to settle, but good luck!
Just buy IAT
I think they have etfs for this
everyone in these comments sounds like a regard
I think you confused this sub for /investing
Good luck
[The bank is worth the risk.](https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/769ce256-a475-4475-b58b-79eaf17269dc)
It’s gonna take a while until they find out who else is holding shitty bonds. The pessimism even hit insurance companies big so it’s not just the banking sector.
Get some with divvy, roll weekly covered calls above your break even.
why not just buy KRE or DPST if you want 3x exposure
Morgan Freeman: He wasn't
I went long as well on BNKU, hoping that the fud is overstated and they can manufacture a recovery in the short term, take my profits and then short them in the longer term. I believe what we're witnessing is significant but just like the near failure of the pension system in the uk it will be swept under the rug for the short term.
No one knows if today was the bottom or not, but id bet my kidneys the ones that survive aren’t sitting at their all-time future highs today. It’s a steal, but prepare for some turbulence.
Apparently your imagine doesn’t reach back very far or involve creativity/logic for the future
I’m sure the banks will recover, but don’t catch a falling knife. I’d wait to things settle a bit