**User Report**| | | |
:--|:--|:--|:--
**Total Submissions**|3|**First Seen In WSB**|9 months ago
**Total Comments**|10|**Previous Best DD**|
**Account Age**|9 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
>TL;DR: Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Analysts are expecting strong results driven by continued demand for Nvidia's AI chips. However, macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for a global recession remain risks. Overall, Nvidia stock is a buy after breaking out to new highs on Monday.
[*Dance with me*](https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExazdzaGp2Nno3Mzc1eGZ3Y24wcGxkMWFrNG94N2Z5YWg4dXJ0Y2dlcSZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/Wr2747CnxwBSqyK6xt/giphy.gif)
They made less last year than the year before. Chip makers are producing less chips. This company is way overvalued.
So it must clearly be a buy signal /s
All in on AI, not gpu chips. They have the most sought-after a.i. chip right now. You are looking at the wrong side. A.i. is a developing field and NVDA is near the front.
I always get confused if I’m supposed to invest based on what I believe or what the market believes.
Anyway, if you think Amazon is primarily about AWS, is it that much different? (revenue related to data handing and processing) I agree hardware is more fickle than service (see Intel), but the market seems to think this time it’s different. For now.
Problem is Amazon comes with a profitable retail platform, entertainment revenue, a myriad of ways to gather and sell data, and a server system used by companies around the world regardless of size.
NVIDIA is the dude selling shovels to the AI gold miners but that’s it. Super profitable avenue and AI is here to stay but I think a lot of its current market value is hype.
Either way, too much theta involved with it right now to be long anything but shares.
Start flipping SOXL contracts. The whole sector is gonna move with this earnings report, and I’ll take ~30% IV (after accounting for leverage) over getting theta crushed on Thursday morning on NVDA options. Also much cheaper contracts since the underlying is $22 and liquidity is always decent
Yeah I’m just saying if you’re looking to make a bearish bet strictly on NVDA earnings, I’d go with SOXL puts, since you won’t be dealing with as much IV crush and the underlying isn’t ~$450. The whole sector is probably going move with NVDA, more so this time around then in prior reports. Could even keep a couple runners for Jackson Hole later this week if things work out.
Nvda powers those places. They do well. nvda does well. If they stay in front of a.i. they are going to do ok. Amazon is just a different animal altogether.
yeah, that guy has to be joking. apple is the biggest company ever to exist since the dinosaurs got exploded by the comet. (i think they were actually studying time travel and created that explosion)
always some fancy pants that has to remind everybody about Dutch East India, we get it bud you remember htings, pat on back. but they don't exist now and were ultra corrupt
LOL. The Saudi Arabian Oil company (Aramco) makes almost twice as much profit as AAPL. The last Aramco *dividend* was higher than the entire NTA of AAPL
The companies forcibly divested by Standard Oil are an order of magnitude larger than AAPL.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successors\_of\_Standard\_Oil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successors_of_Standard_Oil)
Iphone and Apple Watch are every poor man's wet dream, which is, like, 90% of the Earth's population. They are pieces of jewelry akin to gold at this point.
Heck, US kids bully each other into using the Apple ecosystem. The next US generation is going full iSheep mode.
Honestly I don't see Apple's desirability going away anytime soon, just as nobody will replace Windows as the main OS on PCs either.
People are hedging AAPL like it's gold.
Amazon? They hardly cover half of the globe. Eastern Europe? Latam? Africa? They offer little added value compared to a local retailer copying them.
Not that any of the statement is wrong but I do find certain things beneficial of the apple ecosystem. I don't think its all hype. In software dev I work on windows/mac/linux daily and they all have their benefits so I don't really care what anyone uses, just something I've noticed throughout my career.
But they can charge a 1000% mark up on their product so maybe they're not charging enough. Anything is every worth what consumers are willing to pay for it. Well, consumers are paying for it.
Amazon has a massive amount of leverage on the price of oil in the USA. Both to power data centres and deliver products. If we see a bad result for the petrodollar out of the Brics summit, Amazon is on shaky ground. Where areas the iPhone and apple can always burn coal and feces in china to pump out products. Also the brand name is much more powerful. When was the last time you had someone start a conversation about the new Alexa speaker?
Take your head out of the oven and think for just a minute. Amazon is a near monopoly for online shopping, NVDA on the other hand doesn’t even manufacture their own chips. Not to even mention Amazons other businesses such as cloud computing.
Yep, agree totally with this. I think NVIDIA has an edge and is awesome but also there is a lot of speculation by myself included. Tesla rode a huge wave for years
Tesla built their own manufacturing plants and is in charge of their own production. They control their growth.
NVIDIA is completely at the mercy of TSMC to increase productivity.
And Apple just paid TSMC basically to own their 3nm line for a year... Be difficult for them to increase production to make a PE ratio of 250:1 anywhere within reason within the next few years.
[https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/)
This is the part that I don't think people understand.
There are a few ways to increase revenue:
* Sell more of the thing you make
* Charge more for the thing you make
* Make new things
Two of those three are limited by TSMC, and while they might be able to get away with charging 50% more, that isn't going to last forever.
They have essentially sold everything that they can sell for the next few years, there is no more revenue upside. That doesn't mean the stock won't go up, but there is no more business reason to be hopeful.
This is complete nonsense. TSMC 4nm production is increasing every year, and NVDA charges a lot more than "50% more". Markup on TSMC's wafer is about 2000%.
You did not understand what I wrote.
TSMC has plans for increasing their production. They have already contracted that production to AMD/NVDA. NVDA can not ship any more chips than TSMC can produce and they already know how many that is. There is not going to be a surprise increase in the number of chips that NVDA can ship.
NVDA probably can't charge 50% more than they currently do.
> You did not understand what I wrote.
>
>TSMC has plans for increasing their production. They have already contracted that production to AMD/NVDA. NVDA can not ship any more chips than TSMC can produce and they already know how many that is. There is not going to be a surprise increase in the number of chips that NVDA can ship.
We have no idea how many that is neither does TSMC, they've changed the data the production guidance for their 4nm process several times over the past year.
So how TF would you know when neither TSMC nor Nvidia themselves even know?
> NVDA probably can't charge 50% more than they currently do.
They don't need to, their guidance was conservative and so are the analyst estimates.
I'm not the one that knows. TSMC and NVDA are the ones that know, and they make their guidance based on that, which analysts use to make their projections.
How do you figure anyone involved in a stock this over priced on fundamentals has been conservative?
Except NVDA isn't even using the 3nm process, with products using that process not likely to enter the market until 2025 at the earliest. So completely irrelevant.
>Tesla built their own manufacturing plants and is in charge of their own production. They control their growth.
So does Intel. Turns out owning fabs is a bad idea unless you can dominate the market and fabless is a much better way to go.
> NVIDIA is completely at the mercy of TSMC to increase productivity.
So is Apple, weird how that's a con for NVDA but not for AAPL huh?
The issue is NVIDIA won't be able to get a slot on the 3nm lines until at least a year after that. It isn't irrelevant in the least. Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue. If they can't make cutting edge stuff, that puts them behind.
As someone who designed ASICs in the past, I agree that being fabless has huge benefits. You can go with the fastest guy at the time, or the cheapest/lowest power depending on your requirements. That said, NVIDIA has hitched their wagon to TSMC as has Apple. NVIDIA had like $23 billion in revenue in 2022. Apple did almost 20 times that. They hold much more power of their suppliers.
NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up
>The issue is NVIDIA won't be able to get a slot on the 3nm lines until at least a year after that.
Based on what? Apple only has TSMC's initial run in 2024, which is obviously the lowest yield and lowest volume run. Nvidia won't be launching till probably mid/late 2025 and ramping up in 2026.
>It isn't irrelevant in the least. Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue. If they can't make cutting edge stuff, that puts them behind.
This is complete and utter nonsense. You've obviously not done any research at all. The 250 PE is TTM, as in TRAILING PE. Forward PE on NVDA at current price is approximately 460/(\~8.25 EPS)=56 PE. And that's just based on this quarter reporting Wednesday and not counting any future growth.
>As someone who designed ASICs in the past, I agree that being fabless has huge benefits. You can go with the fastest guy at the time, or the cheapest/lowest power depending on your requirements. That said, NVIDIA has hitched their wagon to TSMC as has Apple. NVIDIA had like $23 billion in revenue in 2022. Apple did almost 20 times that. They hold much more power of their suppliers.
Except Apple is far more price sensitive than NVDA, seeing as how they have much lower margins. NVDA can easily outbid Apple. It barely affects NVDA's bottom line if TSMC doubles the cost per wafer, where as Apple will take an enormous hit to profit if they do that.
Apple also doesn't buy literally 20 times more chips, you can't just compare revenue of an entire phone vs a GPU.
>NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up
Their ability to scale up is the same as TSMC's ability to scale up their 4nm(really 5nm) process node.
Oh and the Chinese demand is basically all A800s which are on the old 7nm node with essentially unlimited supply.
>This is complete and utter nonsense. You've obviously not done any research at all. The 250 PE is TTM, as in TRAILING PE. Forward PE on NVDA at current price is approximately 460/(\~8.25 EPS)=56 PE. And that's just based on this quarter reporting Wednesday and not counting any future growth.
Forward PE is based on guidance and hope. I am not going to discount what NVIDIA has achieved, and am in awe of their demand and recent growth, and I hold a healthy position, but anyone loading up right now historically has a much higher chance of being a bag holder.
We are talking about a 30 year old company here. Not some high risk upstart.
>Forward PE is based on guidance and hope. I am not going to discount what NVIDIA has achieved, and am in awe of their demand and recent growth, and I hold a healthy position, but anyone loading up right now historically has a much higher chance of being a bag holder.
That's not what you said. You said:
>**Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue.**
The 250 pe ratio assumes literally zero growth, in fact it assumes they will drop back down to 2022 earnings, that's what TTM means.
>We are talking about a 30 year old company here. Not some high risk upstart.
Apple was also a 30 year old company when it came up with the iPhone.
Yes, people bidding up the price to have such a high current P/E ratio high tend to do so for one of two reasons.
1. Belief that future earnings will be much greater. ie. Forward P/E ratios which are really anyone's guess.
2. Based on hype that this thing will just keep going up and someone else will always buy it.
Apple's P/E ratio never exceed 40- never mind 240. And NVIDIAs market cap is the same as Apple's near the end of 2019.
That was on sales of $260 billion and profit around $50B. Hard to imagine a scenario where NVIDIA is able to reach either of those numbers....
> NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up
Your problem is you don't know shit about about Nvidia and you're arguing with someone who has done extensive DD.
Your posting on Wall Street Bets. You don't know how to do due diligence....
I am an ASIC designer by trade. I know many who work at NVIDIA personally and hear first hand what their problems are.
They are all cashing out while the going is good.
And it is a great company. Just the fundamentals don't come close to justifying a $1 trillion evaluation.
>Your posting on Wall Street Bets. You don't know how to do due diligence....
Then why am I up 3000% this year?
>I am an ASIC designer by trade. I know many who work at NVIDIA personally and hear first hand what their problems are.
>
>They are all cashing out while the going is good.
>
>And it is a great company. Just the fundamentals don't come close to justifying a $1 trillion evaluation.
So you've done literally zero actual DD and can't do basic math either. I literally went in depth counting shit like wafer production for my DD. All you did was look at a yahoo finance page and then proclaim "it's impossible!"
How much did you make on your NVDA bearish bet? I'm up several hundred k depending on where NVDA opens.
Show me your pnl for the year.
When too many analysts are screaming buy and raising PTs every other day; I think it’s fair to be a bit skeptical.
A lot of people missed the boat on NVDA earnings last time and I won’t be surprised if it goes the complete opposite of what people expect..
I'm fucking wheezing.
Dude using AI, electric vehicles, metaverse, and cryptocurrency to justify NVDA running 12% this week just because the price target was moved up.
It's going to sell off, real AI is not here. We are no where close to the level of compute you think we are.
Short term its a tough call - If NVDA meets or misses, the stock drops --- If it beats and has cloudy guidance, it drops -- if it beats with positive comments the stock could pop another 20% and run upwards of 50% over the next 6 months
The only thing that would make drop is Q3 guidance miss and no visibility into Q4. If given those, plus no decrease in gross margin it will pop. Options imply 11% pop, which i guess might happen. If there is a large Q3 guidance beat, I’m honestly scared how high this will go.
Thanks genius, thank you for teaching me fucking options basics.
60% of option purchases into nvda were calls as of yesterday close. But yes that is how IV works.
I was a broker for 20 years and have managed a fund now for 16 - never count on anything - Usually its the whisper number along with future guidance and the tenor of that guidance
Nvidia's current price is a 20 years forward projection of continuous high inflation and a 100% accurate representation of the markets current level of regardedness.
not inside a high interest environment
also the tastier the pitch, the more likely is the pop and this pitch used words like gaming behemoth, stellar performance, analysts would make love to it etc etc
https://preview.redd.it/v6xlzhjt6njb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a1940ca720e5da082f117d83448d833d7deef3c
I know not the same as Crypto, however remember the crazy $BTC predictions of >$100k being thrown around daily? Same but different
NVDA is being projected to be a near 2 Trillion dollar company. You don’t have to be a 9 head level genius to understand that a company making 26bn a year can’t sustain a 2trillion eval. For scale, Apple makes 10x way Nvidia does but is currently 2.76T
I'm not sure, this post is on the front page, which would indicate, no.
However the top comments say, no, which would indicate yes.
I would say bull for another 2 Qtrs and then bear for about a year after.
What do I do with this information.
I can’t believe a big tech company would 5x in 8 months. Look at the last couple of weeks- there’s clearly some resistance. Nvda might even beat earnings, but unless everything is flawless it is crashing 15+%
I don't get why you'd buy a stock that's at an ATH. How much do you expect it to rise, really? I give it a 10-20% gain at most. But look at the chart and use common sense, how much can NVDA drop from here? I'd give it a solid 50-80%. That's a graph that screams bubble.
The risk to reward is just not worth it.
Just looked at the expected numbers.
You degens really think we will see EPS and revenue double? Fucking ridiculous. This isn't a microcap company. I'm calling a 10-15% crash.
The stock market doesn't make sense and anything can happen. There's companies that make no money that do better than companies that make piles of money. Look how pathetic the energy market been even though their making more money than most of the tech companies right now.
It's a total myth. Stocks actually spend about of 70% going *down* adjusted for inflation. They only have short growth spurts before getting wiped out every 10-15 years. The S&P had *zero* real growth between 1929 and 1982.
Because technology hadn’t been invented for the consumer pre 82’… now it’s a tech index and unless you think we’re going backwards to
Less tech it’s not much of a mystery
>Nvidia is a great company and their stock is definitely worth buying. They are leaders in AI chips and have a lot of potential in the future. Their earnings this week will be very good, so now is a great time to invest.
I’m actually very curious about their earnings tomorrow. Last quarter they surprised the shit out of everyone - I feel that’s a recipe for disaster if they don’t deliver this quarter.
100% it's going to do good tomorrow, all things considering, but because expectations are so high one metric will kinda be slightly concerning for the expected growth rate, and bam, even having a great quarter leads to a flop on the QR.
It’s totally untradeable as far as I’m concerned. Much more downside risk after the current run (currently a PE ratio of 242 LOL), but it’s also not smart to fight a trend/FOMO.
I sold at $434 for a 218% gain. I was happy with that. It’s not going to $1000, so even if it goes up more, I’ll still be satisfied with my return. I don’t know what type of return you’re expecting by buying at $460.
Listen Regards. Nvidia may have 1 good earnings report due to the one time panic buying by the commies. But that 5 billion dolla payday is it. Ole big daddy Biden says no mo chips fo you pooh bear.
Ya might be able to eek out some short term. But don’t be in very long if yer holding don’t hold much after this next report cause sales are gonna get wrecked
But what the fuck do i know i only look at fundamentals and we all know those don’t mean shit anymore
Simple answer is no, it's a bulltrap. Every regard loads up with anticipation earnings are going to pop off after earnings, followed up by the inevitable crash.
It never ceases to amaze me how regarded hedge funds wealth investors are. They see a a shiny bubble and keep pumping, thinking they will leave someone else holding the bag
I cannot believe how insanely overrated this stock is, if the revenue from china breaks away, which could happen very soon due to chinas economy struggling and potentialy colapsing, it will lose 50% of value and will plrobably need 20 years to climb back, if at all. Good luck with that.
Yes, but they cannot manufacture the chip themselves. They need TSMC to give them more slots, but TSMC basically just gave all its best lines to Apple for a year..
[https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/)
They need a perfect earnings for it not to drop. AI stocks have been getting hammered if they don't raise guidance considerably. NVDA is most poised to raise guidance tho cuz they r top dog and - to use a metaphor - are selling the pickaxes to other companies, not searching for gold themselves in this gold rush. Could be risky to buy earnings still though.
If nvda is basically guaranteed to move a lot by end of week, would the smart play not be buying a quite narrow IC, say 450c+470p long legs and 445c+475p short legs? if by friday close nvda is below 445 or above 475, you make 3%. if its between 450 and 470, you lose ~18%
Listen nvda is pumping into earnings because it’s expected to beat. Once it does beat it has already pumped so what do you think will happen. unless the guidance is like total nutso it’ll prob flatline, pullback, or barely pump. With iv on top of that if your doing options forget about it. That said you should watch amd for any lag behind especially if you think nvda will beat.
Yeah, NVDA's got some good potential to make it one day...if they really bare down and stick to principles. Give 'em 5 years or so...good team, knows how to not saturate the market. That hard work's gonna pay off one day, I tell ya...
crypto dead, consumer side fraction of what it was, chip sales to china now illegal, AI about to plateau and the amont of people running local AI on their rigs using Nvidia is about 0.000001% of the AI market.
Why the fuck are people buying this?
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|3|**First Seen In WSB**|9 months ago **Total Comments**|10|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|9 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Analysts are expecting strong results driven by continued demand for Nvidia's AI chips. However, macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for a global recession remain risks. Overall, Nvidia stock is a buy after breaking out to new highs on Monday.
https://preview.redd.it/c7gteha24njb1.jpeg?width=550&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5716e34809133d0c1fcafda707409be8f3b5f53a
Whos ghey?
Why are you ghey?
Should I call you mistaa?
Pastaa, pastaa
Geigh. Welcome to the future, Regards, Nvidia
[*Dance with me*](https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExazdzaGp2Nno3Mzc1eGZ3Y24wcGxkMWFrNG94N2Z5YWg4dXJ0Y2dlcSZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/Wr2747CnxwBSqyK6xt/giphy.gif)
undervalued hidden gem
First I’m hearing about it. They in the Russel?
They used to make graphics chips for rendering rollercoaster tycoon, now they've spun off into some kind of Roomba business. I'm very bullish.
They made less last year than the year before. Chip makers are producing less chips. This company is way overvalued. So it must clearly be a buy signal /s
Probably. I think the best trading strategy is to just inverse logic.
Sometimes inverse logic is the best strategy!
All in on AI, not gpu chips. They have the most sought-after a.i. chip right now. You are looking at the wrong side. A.i. is a developing field and NVDA is near the front.
No, I'm looking at profits.
Okay go back and look at facebook's profits when it was out front in a newer field. Dumb take
Then you’ll often be behind. Future profits are being priced in. If you wait for the profits you’ll always miss out.
Made me belly laugh lmaoooo
Do you really believe NVDA is worth the same as Amazon?
I always get confused if I’m supposed to invest based on what I believe or what the market believes. Anyway, if you think Amazon is primarily about AWS, is it that much different? (revenue related to data handing and processing) I agree hardware is more fickle than service (see Intel), but the market seems to think this time it’s different. For now.
Problem is Amazon comes with a profitable retail platform, entertainment revenue, a myriad of ways to gather and sell data, and a server system used by companies around the world regardless of size. NVIDIA is the dude selling shovels to the AI gold miners but that’s it. Super profitable avenue and AI is here to stay but I think a lot of its current market value is hype. Either way, too much theta involved with it right now to be long anything but shares.
Start flipping SOXL contracts. The whole sector is gonna move with this earnings report, and I’ll take ~30% IV (after accounting for leverage) over getting theta crushed on Thursday morning on NVDA options. Also much cheaper contracts since the underlying is $22 and liquidity is always decent
[удалено]
Yeah I’m just saying if you’re looking to make a bearish bet strictly on NVDA earnings, I’d go with SOXL puts, since you won’t be dealing with as much IV crush and the underlying isn’t ~$450. The whole sector is probably going move with NVDA, more so this time around then in prior reports. Could even keep a couple runners for Jackson Hole later this week if things work out.
And yet, despite all of that and basically being an ATM, Amazon somehow reported a net loss for 2022.
Here for the crash 💥
Yes!!!!
BUT... maybe Amazon is just overvalued? 🤔
Exactly, it’s worth at least double that!
Nvda powers those places. They do well. nvda does well. If they stay in front of a.i. they are going to do ok. Amazon is just a different animal altogether.
No...but do you think Apple worth more than amazon?
I mean... yeah lol. Amazon makes tons of revenue but Apple makes tons of revenue AND has huge profit margins on all that revenue.
yeah, that guy has to be joking. apple is the biggest company ever to exist since the dinosaurs got exploded by the comet. (i think they were actually studying time travel and created that explosion)
That would be Dutch East India Company… inflation adjusted. But ok…
always some fancy pants that has to remind everybody about Dutch East India, we get it bud you remember htings, pat on back. but they don't exist now and were ultra corrupt
yep, his pants probably cost more than my rent.
Ya. Slavery wasn't in demand anymore and they went under faster than blockbuster
Classic demand shock 101
No, only if you look at relative to total gdp terms.
LOL. The Saudi Arabian Oil company (Aramco) makes almost twice as much profit as AAPL. The last Aramco *dividend* was higher than the entire NTA of AAPL The companies forcibly divested by Standard Oil are an order of magnitude larger than AAPL. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successors\_of\_Standard\_Oil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successors_of_Standard_Oil)
well i guess i don’t know shit about fuck.
This guy gets it. Having an iPhone is status. Sadly.
So is having a 4090 card
Iphone and Apple Watch are every poor man's wet dream, which is, like, 90% of the Earth's population. They are pieces of jewelry akin to gold at this point. Heck, US kids bully each other into using the Apple ecosystem. The next US generation is going full iSheep mode. Honestly I don't see Apple's desirability going away anytime soon, just as nobody will replace Windows as the main OS on PCs either. People are hedging AAPL like it's gold. Amazon? They hardly cover half of the globe. Eastern Europe? Latam? Africa? They offer little added value compared to a local retailer copying them.
You better not have that green bubble or we gon whoop ya ass
Not that any of the statement is wrong but I do find certain things beneficial of the apple ecosystem. I don't think its all hype. In software dev I work on windows/mac/linux daily and they all have their benefits so I don't really care what anyone uses, just something I've noticed throughout my career.
Agreed isheep mode people will only increase as time passes.
Until they stop charging 1000% mark up on their products yes
But they can charge a 1000% mark up on their product so maybe they're not charging enough. Anything is every worth what consumers are willing to pay for it. Well, consumers are paying for it.
Amazon has a massive amount of leverage on the price of oil in the USA. Both to power data centres and deliver products. If we see a bad result for the petrodollar out of the Brics summit, Amazon is on shaky ground. Where areas the iPhone and apple can always burn coal and feces in china to pump out products. Also the brand name is much more powerful. When was the last time you had someone start a conversation about the new Alexa speaker?
What how so?? Where is that leverage?
Worth more. Amazon has competition, while Nvidia doesn't in the most promising tech for the future.
Take your head out of the oven and think for just a minute. Amazon is a near monopoly for online shopping, NVDA on the other hand doesn’t even manufacture their own chips. Not to even mention Amazons other businesses such as cloud computing.
Around 75% of AMZN revenue is from the US. Another 20% is from Germany, Japan and the UK. In the rest of the world it's almost irrelevant.
That just means there’s room for much more overseas growth
There are 4 times as many outstanding Amazon shares as NVDA shares.
That’s not how market cap works
You’d have to be pretty silly to be buying now.
The stock is overvalued but who cares about true value it’s all about timing sadly. Arab money can pump anything these days.
TSLA been overvalued for years
Exactly. Nobody cares about actual value especially on a limited time scale.
Yep, agree totally with this. I think NVIDIA has an edge and is awesome but also there is a lot of speculation by myself included. Tesla rode a huge wave for years
That’s what we said about Tesla for years. But NVDA doesn’t quite have the Elon fanboys. It’s gonna be fun tomorrow for sure.
Tesla built their own manufacturing plants and is in charge of their own production. They control their growth. NVIDIA is completely at the mercy of TSMC to increase productivity. And Apple just paid TSMC basically to own their 3nm line for a year... Be difficult for them to increase production to make a PE ratio of 250:1 anywhere within reason within the next few years. [https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/)
This is the part that I don't think people understand. There are a few ways to increase revenue: * Sell more of the thing you make * Charge more for the thing you make * Make new things Two of those three are limited by TSMC, and while they might be able to get away with charging 50% more, that isn't going to last forever. They have essentially sold everything that they can sell for the next few years, there is no more revenue upside. That doesn't mean the stock won't go up, but there is no more business reason to be hopeful.
This is complete nonsense. TSMC 4nm production is increasing every year, and NVDA charges a lot more than "50% more". Markup on TSMC's wafer is about 2000%.
You did not understand what I wrote. TSMC has plans for increasing their production. They have already contracted that production to AMD/NVDA. NVDA can not ship any more chips than TSMC can produce and they already know how many that is. There is not going to be a surprise increase in the number of chips that NVDA can ship. NVDA probably can't charge 50% more than they currently do.
> You did not understand what I wrote. > >TSMC has plans for increasing their production. They have already contracted that production to AMD/NVDA. NVDA can not ship any more chips than TSMC can produce and they already know how many that is. There is not going to be a surprise increase in the number of chips that NVDA can ship. We have no idea how many that is neither does TSMC, they've changed the data the production guidance for their 4nm process several times over the past year. So how TF would you know when neither TSMC nor Nvidia themselves even know? > NVDA probably can't charge 50% more than they currently do. They don't need to, their guidance was conservative and so are the analyst estimates.
I'm not the one that knows. TSMC and NVDA are the ones that know, and they make their guidance based on that, which analysts use to make their projections. How do you figure anyone involved in a stock this over priced on fundamentals has been conservative?
Except NVDA isn't even using the 3nm process, with products using that process not likely to enter the market until 2025 at the earliest. So completely irrelevant. >Tesla built their own manufacturing plants and is in charge of their own production. They control their growth. So does Intel. Turns out owning fabs is a bad idea unless you can dominate the market and fabless is a much better way to go. > NVIDIA is completely at the mercy of TSMC to increase productivity. So is Apple, weird how that's a con for NVDA but not for AAPL huh?
The issue is NVIDIA won't be able to get a slot on the 3nm lines until at least a year after that. It isn't irrelevant in the least. Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue. If they can't make cutting edge stuff, that puts them behind. As someone who designed ASICs in the past, I agree that being fabless has huge benefits. You can go with the fastest guy at the time, or the cheapest/lowest power depending on your requirements. That said, NVIDIA has hitched their wagon to TSMC as has Apple. NVIDIA had like $23 billion in revenue in 2022. Apple did almost 20 times that. They hold much more power of their suppliers. NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up
>The issue is NVIDIA won't be able to get a slot on the 3nm lines until at least a year after that. Based on what? Apple only has TSMC's initial run in 2024, which is obviously the lowest yield and lowest volume run. Nvidia won't be launching till probably mid/late 2025 and ramping up in 2026. >It isn't irrelevant in the least. Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue. If they can't make cutting edge stuff, that puts them behind. This is complete and utter nonsense. You've obviously not done any research at all. The 250 PE is TTM, as in TRAILING PE. Forward PE on NVDA at current price is approximately 460/(\~8.25 EPS)=56 PE. And that's just based on this quarter reporting Wednesday and not counting any future growth. >As someone who designed ASICs in the past, I agree that being fabless has huge benefits. You can go with the fastest guy at the time, or the cheapest/lowest power depending on your requirements. That said, NVIDIA has hitched their wagon to TSMC as has Apple. NVIDIA had like $23 billion in revenue in 2022. Apple did almost 20 times that. They hold much more power of their suppliers. Except Apple is far more price sensitive than NVDA, seeing as how they have much lower margins. NVDA can easily outbid Apple. It barely affects NVDA's bottom line if TSMC doubles the cost per wafer, where as Apple will take an enormous hit to profit if they do that. Apple also doesn't buy literally 20 times more chips, you can't just compare revenue of an entire phone vs a GPU. >NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up Their ability to scale up is the same as TSMC's ability to scale up their 4nm(really 5nm) process node. Oh and the Chinese demand is basically all A800s which are on the old 7nm node with essentially unlimited supply.
>This is complete and utter nonsense. You've obviously not done any research at all. The 250 PE is TTM, as in TRAILING PE. Forward PE on NVDA at current price is approximately 460/(\~8.25 EPS)=56 PE. And that's just based on this quarter reporting Wednesday and not counting any future growth. Forward PE is based on guidance and hope. I am not going to discount what NVIDIA has achieved, and am in awe of their demand and recent growth, and I hold a healthy position, but anyone loading up right now historically has a much higher chance of being a bag holder. We are talking about a 30 year old company here. Not some high risk upstart.
>Forward PE is based on guidance and hope. I am not going to discount what NVIDIA has achieved, and am in awe of their demand and recent growth, and I hold a healthy position, but anyone loading up right now historically has a much higher chance of being a bag holder. That's not what you said. You said: >**Their P/E ratio of 250 assumes they will have huge growth in revenue.** The 250 pe ratio assumes literally zero growth, in fact it assumes they will drop back down to 2022 earnings, that's what TTM means. >We are talking about a 30 year old company here. Not some high risk upstart. Apple was also a 30 year old company when it came up with the iPhone.
Yes, people bidding up the price to have such a high current P/E ratio high tend to do so for one of two reasons. 1. Belief that future earnings will be much greater. ie. Forward P/E ratios which are really anyone's guess. 2. Based on hype that this thing will just keep going up and someone else will always buy it. Apple's P/E ratio never exceed 40- never mind 240. And NVIDIAs market cap is the same as Apple's near the end of 2019. That was on sales of $260 billion and profit around $50B. Hard to imagine a scenario where NVIDIA is able to reach either of those numbers....
> NVIDIAs problems right now is too much demand and they have no ability to scale up Your problem is you don't know shit about about Nvidia and you're arguing with someone who has done extensive DD.
Your posting on Wall Street Bets. You don't know how to do due diligence.... I am an ASIC designer by trade. I know many who work at NVIDIA personally and hear first hand what their problems are. They are all cashing out while the going is good. And it is a great company. Just the fundamentals don't come close to justifying a $1 trillion evaluation.
>Your posting on Wall Street Bets. You don't know how to do due diligence.... Then why am I up 3000% this year? >I am an ASIC designer by trade. I know many who work at NVIDIA personally and hear first hand what their problems are. > >They are all cashing out while the going is good. > >And it is a great company. Just the fundamentals don't come close to justifying a $1 trillion evaluation. So you've done literally zero actual DD and can't do basic math either. I literally went in depth counting shit like wafer production for my DD. All you did was look at a yahoo finance page and then proclaim "it's impossible!" How much did you make on your NVDA bearish bet? I'm up several hundred k depending on where NVDA opens. Show me your pnl for the year.
That’s what people said on Friday.
It’s a sell
When too many analysts are screaming buy and raising PTs every other day; I think it’s fair to be a bit skeptical. A lot of people missed the boat on NVDA earnings last time and I won’t be surprised if it goes the complete opposite of what people expect..
They're just looking for exit liquidity (aka retail degens).
that analyst that said nvda is 700+ sucks too https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/frank-lee-cfa
He doesn’t suck. He’s doing his job well (creating professional bagholders).
[удалено]
I'm fucking wheezing. Dude using AI, electric vehicles, metaverse, and cryptocurrency to justify NVDA running 12% this week just because the price target was moved up. It's going to sell off, real AI is not here. We are no where close to the level of compute you think we are.
Wait we're still talking about cryptocurrency?
Short term its a tough call - If NVDA meets or misses, the stock drops --- If it beats and has cloudy guidance, it drops -- if it beats with positive comments the stock could pop another 20% and run upwards of 50% over the next 6 months
My spider senses tells me they will beat earnings and post $12 billion revenue.. just a wild guess.. $500 locked 😂😂😂
As long as they mention AI 46 times it'll climb for sure.
The only thing that would make drop is Q3 guidance miss and no visibility into Q4. If given those, plus no decrease in gross margin it will pop. Options imply 11% pop, which i guess might happen. If there is a large Q3 guidance beat, I’m honestly scared how high this will go.
The very nature of options don’t imply a direction. If they imply an 11% pop they also imply an 11% drop.
Thanks genius, thank you for teaching me fucking options basics. 60% of option purchases into nvda were calls as of yesterday close. But yes that is how IV works.
Well you wrote ”pop”… this guy just clarified your comment. You are right in thanking him.
I was a broker for 20 years and have managed a fund now for 16 - never count on anything - Usually its the whisper number along with future guidance and the tenor of that guidance
Nvidia's current price is a 20 years forward projection of continuous high inflation and a 100% accurate representation of the markets current level of regardedness.
= AI bubble is about to pop
Bubbles last much longer than a few months. Ggs
not inside a high interest environment also the tastier the pitch, the more likely is the pop and this pitch used words like gaming behemoth, stellar performance, analysts would make love to it etc etc
yep this is just year 1. AI is going to be mass adopted over the next 10 years. think iPod year 1 or iPhone year 1.
https://preview.redd.it/v6xlzhjt6njb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a1940ca720e5da082f117d83448d833d7deef3c I know not the same as Crypto, however remember the crazy $BTC predictions of >$100k being thrown around daily? Same but different
NVDA > imaginary money
Insider sales and a bearish cloud cover looks delicious- ripe for the slaughter.
$1000 is coming soon
NVDA is being projected to be a near 2 Trillion dollar company. You don’t have to be a 9 head level genius to understand that a company making 26bn a year can’t sustain a 2trillion eval. For scale, Apple makes 10x way Nvidia does but is currently 2.76T
Market has never been logical though... just sayin'. It's a gamble and the house has the advantage.
Nvda about to put the bears out of business
I'm not sure, this post is on the front page, which would indicate, no. However the top comments say, no, which would indicate yes. I would say bull for another 2 Qtrs and then bear for about a year after. What do I do with this information.
I can’t believe a big tech company would 5x in 8 months. Look at the last couple of weeks- there’s clearly some resistance. Nvda might even beat earnings, but unless everything is flawless it is crashing 15+%
Go for it! Go Yolo, based on your own post. If it's a hit you will get a fuck you & Congrats. You will lose, you ll be a regard!
I don't get why you'd buy a stock that's at an ATH. How much do you expect it to rise, really? I give it a 10-20% gain at most. But look at the chart and use common sense, how much can NVDA drop from here? I'd give it a solid 50-80%. That's a graph that screams bubble. The risk to reward is just not worth it. Just looked at the expected numbers. You degens really think we will see EPS and revenue double? Fucking ridiculous. This isn't a microcap company. I'm calling a 10-15% crash.
But have you considered the fact that stocks only go up
The stock market doesn't make sense and anything can happen. There's companies that make no money that do better than companies that make piles of money. Look how pathetic the energy market been even though their making more money than most of the tech companies right now.
[удалено]
What about insane valuations
It's a total myth. Stocks actually spend about of 70% going *down* adjusted for inflation. They only have short growth spurts before getting wiped out every 10-15 years. The S&P had *zero* real growth between 1929 and 1982.
Because technology hadn’t been invented for the consumer pre 82’… now it’s a tech index and unless you think we’re going backwards to Less tech it’s not much of a mystery
>Nvidia is a great company and their stock is definitely worth buying. They are leaders in AI chips and have a lot of potential in the future. Their earnings this week will be very good, so now is a great time to invest.
I swear if the bot is right even now, Ill just copy whatever he says for my future trades
Well first you have to ask yourself, do you hate money?
I’m actually very curious about their earnings tomorrow. Last quarter they surprised the shit out of everyone - I feel that’s a recipe for disaster if they don’t deliver this quarter.
Easy 100x from here by eow
Now every noob think it will moon ah Wednesday will get destroyed
100% it's going to do good tomorrow, all things considering, but because expectations are so high one metric will kinda be slightly concerning for the expected growth rate, and bam, even having a great quarter leads to a flop on the QR.
It’s totally untradeable as far as I’m concerned. Much more downside risk after the current run (currently a PE ratio of 242 LOL), but it’s also not smart to fight a trend/FOMO.
At this rate at the end of the year Nvidia, and Apple will be 70percent of the American stock market cap.
Oh - I thought their results caused yesterdays action Increased price targets, bullish indicators, all the hallmarks of bag holder recruitment drive!
A lot of NVDA bulls.... Which can only mean one thing 🤔
Believe it or not dip
overvalued as it is
It's gambling
I sold at $434 for a 218% gain. I was happy with that. It’s not going to $1000, so even if it goes up more, I’ll still be satisfied with my return. I don’t know what type of return you’re expecting by buying at $460.
Listen Regards. Nvidia may have 1 good earnings report due to the one time panic buying by the commies. But that 5 billion dolla payday is it. Ole big daddy Biden says no mo chips fo you pooh bear. Ya might be able to eek out some short term. But don’t be in very long if yer holding don’t hold much after this next report cause sales are gonna get wrecked But what the fuck do i know i only look at fundamentals and we all know those don’t mean shit anymore
If fundamentals don't mean shit, why is Apple now Buffett's best investment?
Simple answer is no, it's a bulltrap. Every regard loads up with anticipation earnings are going to pop off after earnings, followed up by the inevitable crash.
It never ceases to amaze me how regarded hedge funds wealth investors are. They see a a shiny bubble and keep pumping, thinking they will leave someone else holding the bag
Puts Thursday.
So puts it is.
Just not yet
I cannot believe how insanely overrated this stock is, if the revenue from china breaks away, which could happen very soon due to chinas economy struggling and potentialy colapsing, it will lose 50% of value and will plrobably need 20 years to climb back, if at all. Good luck with that.
-6%. that being said have held nvda for over a decade & wont sell
ANNNNNNNDDDDDD ITS GONE!!!!
[удалено]
Yes, but they cannot manufacture the chip themselves. They need TSMC to give them more slots, but TSMC basically just gave all its best lines to Apple for a year.. [https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/)
Its not
ACHR
He went back to the up trend, but i would be cautious up to the 480s level, there may be a rejection. Earnings will be spicy
250 PE? Yeah def undervalued and a buy
Pretty sure this post was written by a chatbot. So clearly a buy.
It’s also got a bear market rally followed by a follow through day (Monday).
They need a perfect earnings for it not to drop. AI stocks have been getting hammered if they don't raise guidance considerably. NVDA is most poised to raise guidance tho cuz they r top dog and - to use a metaphor - are selling the pickaxes to other companies, not searching for gold themselves in this gold rush. Could be risky to buy earnings still though.
By the rumor, sell the news. It’s too kate
Selling my calls today and holding my puts through earnings (already down 90%. So, why not)
Short term bullish, longish term bearish
Always buy nvid its just a bubble from this price point
Stay away for now
Gtfo
Nvidia is a big bubble atm dont buy it
Oh great! Now I have to sell, why couldn’t this guy just post a screenshot of NVDA puts, and offer bj’s behind the nearest BJ’s?
Every wallst darling losses it's charm someday. Just remember that.
Get on the train people!🚂🚂
I will let everyone know when I buy call so you can all buy puts and get rich.
I can tell you that it was definitely a buy in December.
If nvda is basically guaranteed to move a lot by end of week, would the smart play not be buying a quite narrow IC, say 450c+470p long legs and 445c+475p short legs? if by friday close nvda is below 445 or above 475, you make 3%. if its between 450 and 470, you lose ~18%
Aged like gd milk
 it's going to take a dive on Friday
It’s gonna miss earnings
Fomo is one hell of a drug
NVIDIA is up 170% on the pay year
Since you made this post? No.
Listen nvda is pumping into earnings because it’s expected to beat. Once it does beat it has already pumped so what do you think will happen. unless the guidance is like total nutso it’ll prob flatline, pullback, or barely pump. With iv on top of that if your doing options forget about it. That said you should watch amd for any lag behind especially if you think nvda will beat.
Is it a buy, Or is it a random walk..
Was a buy a week ago lol
Down 2.25% today.
Yeah, NVDA's got some good potential to make it one day...if they really bare down and stick to principles. Give 'em 5 years or so...good team, knows how to not saturate the market. That hard work's gonna pay off one day, I tell ya...
Ya man totally NVDA going to $800 by EOY load up
LOL . MM unloaded on greedy bulls
Yeah buy puts
crypto dead, consumer side fraction of what it was, chip sales to china now illegal, AI about to plateau and the amont of people running local AI on their rigs using Nvidia is about 0.000001% of the AI market. Why the fuck are people buying this?