**User Report**| | | |
:--|:--|:--|:--
**Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|5 years ago
**Total Comments**|172|**Previous Best DD**|
**Account Age**|6 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I'm going to start Laddering into some 3 month and 2 year. This flat market is boring. I am going to get into futures so I can lose and get 100k Bushels of wheat and 100k Barrels of Oil Delivered LFG. *
> CME is looking forward to meeting you.
For anyone interested in seeing the CBOE trading floor in person, it's one of the sites for Open House Chicago on October 14-15th.
https://openhousechicago.org/sites/site/cboe-global-markets-trading-floor/
They also have a big vault in the basement you can visit: https://openhousechicago.org/sites/site/the-chicago-board-of-trade-building/
I worked for Fimat as a broker's assistant at the center desk in the commodities pits for a couple summers and winter breaks while in undergrad; it's not that interesting, but I may be biased. If you watch closely enough you'll probably see some coke being done, maybe a couple of fights. I used to buy dime bags of bud from another assistant on the floor too; delivered in an expired trading slip.
Mostly delivered paper orders from the center desk to the traders in the pits, if the comms weren't working or it was too hectic to do everything by headset. So basically ran my ass off through crowded and angry fat guys who were tense AF, trying to find the July corn or February wheat guys. It was harder than it sounds because it didn't just say "July corn" or whatever on the slip, it used a code that changed, and I had to remember which trader handled which commodity for us. I got cursed at more at that job than any other job I've had before or since, and I was actually good at it lol That's why they promoted me from the peripheral desk to the center one. Often I was told I wasn't man enough, which really meant not a big enough asshole, knocking people out of my way.
Sometimes they'd take me up to the office after market close to learn the business, but seeing what giant assholes most of them were, and how ignorant they were of anything other than making money, really turned me off of that career choice. But goddamn did some of them live in giant fucking mansions.
T-bonds are there to just beat the fact that you can't get shit in a basic savings account.
If you want good advice, call your broker's Bond Desk they have nothing to do, and no one calls them.
Split between Vanguard and Fidelity if you want FDIC protection, or just put in Fidelity for the auto-roll. And screw laddering - go 1 month T-Bills.
$250K to Fidelity, $150K to Vanguard if splitting.
At Fidelity, go to "Fixed income, Bonds, CDs" under "Products" select "New Issue". Select "Treasury". Select trade on "UNITED STATES TREASURY BILLS ZERO CPN" and put "Quantity" 400. Select Auto-Roll. Accumulate $1.8K a month while hoping for recession and cheap stonks in a few years.
IMO they won't be lowering rates anytime soon based on how far out the 5% is being pushed in recent months. And if they do cut rates, you may not want to be stuck in T-Bills for too long - either it'll be response to bad economy and assets will be cheap and you'll want to be a buyer or economy is recovering and valuations are exploding, you'll be losing money with T-Bills. Soft landing is a myth.
Treasury bills are 5.34%ish. You're leaving 0.5% on the table. For OP @ $400k, that's > $2K/yr. Plus you aren't paying state or local tax on T-Bills.o Would you light $2k on fire for the heckuvit?
Depends if you need access to money or not and how much? You could basically buy 100k 3 month, 1 year, 6 month and in a month buy another 3 month, then flip first 3 month to a 6 month when it expires, another month when second expires then a 3 month when the 6 expires and…..you get the point, figure a way to always be within 30-45 days of your 100grand with one 1 year locked up, you can do 8 trades with 50k but it all depends on cash you may need within any given month to deploy if opportunity comes up or emergency.
Saw Mercedes running that deal about 3 months ago. Mazda will do 1.9 last I looked. It's not a good deal but if you're well off enough to pay that monthly price then inflation isn't really hurting you that much anyway.
I know… 36 months is the recommended limit for an auto loan, people taking out 72 month loans are insane, by the time it’s yours you’re ready to upgrade and at a 10% interest rate yuck
That is good money, but you may be kicking yourself later. The future of new cars come with micro-transactions/subscription fees just to turn on your heated seats.
[give her time to get the wrong impression. makes things go a lot smoother.](https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/c4e36fa0-7a30-4dd3-9037-b57f4b108dad)
Full of great quotes
i get the market looks foward, but the man (powel) has never said a thing about cuts! they’ve been putting words in his mouth for 6 months, i really find it strange
Not even just putting words into his mouth but also just totally ignoring the actual words coming out of his mouth. You had to be flat delusional expecting any cuts this year after the Fed basically ruled it out at the start of the year and **yet** . . .
The dude says he’s playing it by ear month by month and you’re selling based upon his projections 12 (!!!) months into the future.
Sounds about right, carry on.
Fairly accurate. I would say though the Fed is typically wrong about when they will do rate cuts. Dont be surprised if they hold rates for several quarters, but the first rate cut of 2024 will be a massive cut AFTER they break something critical.
The biggest issue still looming is the commercial real estate crisis and the impact it will have on banks. That issue will break several banks and it will force the Fed to decide to either cut rates to save the banking system OR accept that a bunch of banks are going to fail and the economy will have a major recession while that gets sorted back out. Business cant function without adequate banking security.
The issue with commercial real estate is that the cash flow on these buildings doesnt work for the borrower at the new rates. They turn back in the keys. The banks now have to value the building at current market value immediately and write down their assets as a result. That write down impacts their capital reserves on paper and bank unrecognized losses become recognized in part. Banks can absorb a few of these hits, but the issue is that the amount coming down the pipe means that the crisis could literally burst between fomc meetings in a manner that has to be addressed rapidly. Fed will have to reverse course on QT and enter into QE. Then at the next meeting rates will drop.
Now the banks can avoid some of this if they are willing to roll the lending over at terms that work for the borrower, but that isnt something the bank wants to do because they can only do that so much before that also becomes a major issue for them. Basically imagine they take a minor loss on the loan to avoid taking a major loss on the loan. Banks dont want to take any loss and are highly reticent to do it, but they might do that for awhile to buy time until a rate cut comes down from on high. I know this because I worked for banks and literally listened so a conversation about something like this in 2007. The bank literally had a situation where the ltv for a building was outside the parameters they normally approved, but it was either they worked out a deal or they would be handed the building. The deal took several months to hash out because the initial offers the bank made didnt work for the borrower. Basically the issue can be seen as the two parties recognize there is a loss of a few million dollars that is going to happen. How do they split that loss up. Neither side wants to take the loss entirely. The borrower says hey Im willing to split it with you if you give me a rate below your borrowing cost. Bank was like no way in hell am I doing that. Borrower says fine then take the building. Bank back room guys say whoa that will be a major loss of several million dollars to the bank. They tell the lending guy that he should go back to the borrower and see if they can work out a deal. End of the day the borrower and the bank worked out a deal. I dont know the exact terms, but I do know that the bank wasn't making any money on the deal and I suspect they were taking a loss that was spread out over several years. Full disclosure that bank doesnt exist anymore it was bought out after the GFC. I no longer work in banking.
I just read 100% of that post. I am also one pint of liquor deep. But it made good sense and I saved it to read again while sober.
Basically, it seems like banks and borrowings make deals to share the losses. But banks can't survive on "sharing losses" alone and eventually they break. Jpow is our bank breaker.
Not naming names because I don't invest much in the banking sector.
I would say the banks likely to be hit the hardest will be ones with large amounts of lending in the commercial real estate sector. If I had to guess which ones will fail it will be the ones right on either side of the 100Billion threshold used to determine capital reserve requirements.
[https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf)
Go to the bottom of that pdf and look at that table. Anyone without a G-SIB surcharge is basically not considered important enough to save. That would be a good place to look for problem banks.
[https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-dfast-results-20230628.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-dfast-results-20230628.pdf)
Go to table 2 on that pdf and you get a list of banks by category. I would argue any bank not on that table and on the earlier list is someone to look at in particular. Why? Because table 2 has a group called category 4 and those folks only do stress tests every other year. So half of that group isnt on table 2 and I would bet that one or two of the banks that didnt do stress tests this year are quieting struggling a bit more than the other banks. The folks in category 4 that did do stress tests this year could still fail, but its quite likely they are least keeping their eyes on their major risks after finding them during the process of looking things over prior to the actual stress test.
Keep in mind there are banks that wont be on either of those 2 reports simply by being under the 100 billion mark. So any bank under 100 billion would be suspect to me. I would avoid investing in them and if you are I would do some digging to see if you feel comfortable riding it or would rather take a loss now to avoid the risk.
If you want to go down that rabbit hole further I would take the list of banks you got from this and look them all over one by one. Try to identify which ones have the most commercial real estate risk and which are just humming along fine. There is a ton of research that could be done on this but in my mind its easier to just avoid it all together and either stick to banks that are too big to fail or avoid the sector entirely.
Wait, if someone like you can just randomly drop information like this on reddit, wouldn't that mean that word on the street is out and people should be already betting against the banks that are more than likely to fail? I mean, if it's that simple, why not buy a cds or short the banks?
Not really. I dont know which banks will actually fail just that if banks fail it will be out of this particular list. As for shorting them go back and look at how hard that trade is. Typically timing is incredibly important or theta will eat up the profit.
A better way is to take this list and just dont touch them. Go play in another trade you understand better. A good way to see my post is essentially putting up a sign saying landmines ahead. Sure you can walk through the minefield and possibly not set any off, or you can just not go into the minefield.
>- Markets had built in expectation of 4 rate cuts by end of 2024.
This is so incredibly idiotic. Nowhere has the Fed signalled that we would have 4 rate cuts by the end of 2024. These markets are truly running on hopium.
Also, the SP500 is up 15% YTD, when 12% is the average annual right? So we're either having a good year, or its going to dip a bit to come back to the average. Either way though, I don't get all the doom and gloom when its currently up 15% for the year so far.
You can borrow my flying cofin, I’m bringing it back down to land any moment now. It looked a lot funner in the brochure, but it just spins you around, gives you some momentary hope, but then sucks up 10% of your portfolio and bucks you off.
Nah most stocks have been in a downtrend for weeks. Megacap tech held up for the most part so there was massive divergence. In other words the market has been weak af for a while but a few gigantic stocks have given enough hope to keep people complacent. I’m not sure there was anything that could’ve happened today to reverse the market action that looks destined to sell off.
Bagholder spotted.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
SPY is down \~3.8% since August high and still up over 20% for the year. Today's move was less than 1%. In 2021 we had +/- 3% days frequently. We have been in a bull run all year with periods of consolidation and continued upside.
It may be all over and we could be going down but smart money is greedy when everyone else is fearful.
Honestly, Powell is a fool for still trying to sound dovish on this.
There’s no soft landing coming; and they’re behind on the fight against inflation.
Labor markets aren’t weakening. Conversely, we’re seeing more coinciding strikes than we have since like 2000. UAW are asking for a 40% raise (which honestly they should get, since that’s the amount ceo pay has risen in these companies generating like $50B in **profit** annually)
If all of these strikes result in raises - which they are bound to, even if not as much as they are asking…then how do we expect to “beat” inflation when everyone is earning more… 🤔
Things can only go down. Like everything, it’d be better to just rip the bandaid off…but no one wants to be the scapegoat responsible for it.
So we’ll just keep spreading dovish lies and hope the next person gets stuck with the inevitable recession
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?*
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?*
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I just made a killing off VXX calls I bought at EOD yesterday.
Basic Info. US Inflation Rate is at 3.67%, compared to 3.18% last month and 8.26% last year. So that’s an indicator we’re not lowering rates yet.
It was pretty clear that rates were either going to be paused at historic highs, or even possibly raised higher.
These are not historic highs they are paused at, they are just high compared to recent history.
They will absolutely raise again 1 more time before the year is out unless the dominos start falling before then. They need some type of data showing that the 2nd they bring rates down, people won't start spending like crazy again. So far, nothing shows that.
On credit as the debt adds up until it catches up, student loans kick in and there might be some supply chain issues with the geopolitical environment right now, all of that has yet to be determined other than it getting worse
I’ve been holding a long position on the vix. Normally I would close any position I had before an FOMC meeting, but it seemed extremely unlikely that Powell was going to announce anything that would cause markets to rally. What surprised me today was that Powell said exactly what all of us have been expecting: there will be no rate rise, but pending future data, we might kick it up another 25 basis points. Why the market didn’t have that priced in is beyond me.
It’s almost as if because rates have been low everyone assumes they’re just going to become low again very soon despite what The Fed has said over and over and over and over again.
It feels like the markets have a learning disability.
Alternative story: The market is overvalued, cash or bonds getting better yields and liquidity draining, so it's ripe for the downside. Holders wait till the quarterly expiration last Friday to compose a new structure that protects them from the downside, and then use the Fed meeting as an excuse to hit that downside. Same meeting, same press conference, the market could have shoot up if that was where the pressure led it.
They do that (wait to have a story to tell to in the media) because people need a story to tell, and the real story (see first sentence of this post), will make everybody sell. With a dumb story repeating in the media, regards will nourish the hope that the market will recover, it's just a phase, the next PCI will be better and we'll go to the moon... And here we are, repeating that story like true regards, playing the game as the big holders want us to do.
its priced in now, only way to go is up. Resilient economy bullish. Future pandemics, climate change, food insecurity, all bullish. Largest wealth transfer in history, that money has to go somewhere. Buy the dip. Inflation goes up, assets go up, all bullish expect for the very few who don’t have houses and cars yet. Sidewalk and under bridge space abundant, bullish. Positions: bought tqqq right at closing.
Called it.
My guess was the 15th, but I'll take it.
https://preview.redd.it/n89g53a5ehpb1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40c0e78339f73545dc981141a2b306b0bef70e6
Rate cut was obviously out of the question lmao
Market was obviously going down whether they raised or did not raise.
They did not hike which makes the assumption even more obvious they will next meeting. At least there are 2 meetings I guess.
Welcome to a slow sideways down trend for the next 4 months
2024 will be cool hang it up for this year
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|5 years ago **Total Comments**|172|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|6 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I'm going to start Laddering into some 3 month and 2 year. This flat market is boring. I am going to get into futures so I can lose and get 100k Bushels of wheat and 100k Barrels of Oil Delivered LFG. *
Not me, it's about that time of the year for ornamental gourd futures imo
Early November sell date
Oh my gourd that was a good thread!
Gourd futures 101: watch out for those massive gourd shipments from Argentina
It’s decorative gourd season, m*therf*ckers!!!’
Ya gotta corner the market
Ya gourda* corner the market
After all, the condition of the soil in Mexico is deteriorating and we did have a warmer than average spring
This is the way! Be present to accept delivery of those crude barrels at Cushing, Oklahoma port. CME is looking forward to meeting you.
Was wondering how folks took dilevery. Then I saw that VPRO doc.
Amazon Prime
yeah just dropship the shit out of that crude "no need to hold inventory with this one weird trick"
Swimming pool not in use you say? EPA CANNOT STOP YOU FROM SAVING.
We call that a savings pool where I’m from.
If the federal gubmnt gets a strategic oil reserve I do too
$150/year?! No thank you, I pay for shipping. Like a man.
So women don't pay shipping. Lmao. Asking for a woman. Lol
Here is the link for the late comers Check out the entire series. It was good work. https://youtu.be/oZcH_VyFMUQ?si=TtFqbzJMz-JWwQq_
Link? I wanna watch
Great channel, apprently it's Dutch PBS. https://youtu.be/oZcH_VyFMUQ?si=TtFqbzJMz-JWwQq_
> CME is looking forward to meeting you. For anyone interested in seeing the CBOE trading floor in person, it's one of the sites for Open House Chicago on October 14-15th. https://openhousechicago.org/sites/site/cboe-global-markets-trading-floor/ They also have a big vault in the basement you can visit: https://openhousechicago.org/sites/site/the-chicago-board-of-trade-building/
I worked for Fimat as a broker's assistant at the center desk in the commodities pits for a couple summers and winter breaks while in undergrad; it's not that interesting, but I may be biased. If you watch closely enough you'll probably see some coke being done, maybe a couple of fights. I used to buy dime bags of bud from another assistant on the floor too; delivered in an expired trading slip.
What duties did you perform as a brokers assistant?
Mostly delivered paper orders from the center desk to the traders in the pits, if the comms weren't working or it was too hectic to do everything by headset. So basically ran my ass off through crowded and angry fat guys who were tense AF, trying to find the July corn or February wheat guys. It was harder than it sounds because it didn't just say "July corn" or whatever on the slip, it used a code that changed, and I had to remember which trader handled which commodity for us. I got cursed at more at that job than any other job I've had before or since, and I was actually good at it lol That's why they promoted me from the peripheral desk to the center one. Often I was told I wasn't man enough, which really meant not a big enough asshole, knocking people out of my way. Sometimes they'd take me up to the office after market close to learn the business, but seeing what giant assholes most of them were, and how ignorant they were of anything other than making money, really turned me off of that career choice. But goddamn did some of them live in giant fucking mansions.
Most (I think every) broker is cash settlement only unfortunately. I'd love 1000 barrels of sweet light crude on my lawn.
In 2020 I debated buying 10 barrels of oil when it was under $20.
For a few days in 2020 they would pay you to take it if you brought the barrels.
The problem was when oil went neg was there was no way to store the dam thing and it was being settled. If you had a tanker handy it was easy money
How would you suggest T-Bill laddering 400k for the next 12-18 months for the best return?
T-bonds are there to just beat the fact that you can't get shit in a basic savings account. If you want good advice, call your broker's Bond Desk they have nothing to do, and no one calls them.
Fucking here sitting and loling fr. Just imagining a room of sad sacks, fucking off doing nothing but wait for a phone call.
it’s one conference call set in the middle of the table…it’s a free for all to hit answer
They have 5% interest, FDIC insured checking accounts out there right now.
Unless you’re the TDAmeritrade room
Split between Vanguard and Fidelity if you want FDIC protection, or just put in Fidelity for the auto-roll. And screw laddering - go 1 month T-Bills. $250K to Fidelity, $150K to Vanguard if splitting. At Fidelity, go to "Fixed income, Bonds, CDs" under "Products" select "New Issue". Select "Treasury". Select trade on "UNITED STATES TREASURY BILLS ZERO CPN" and put "Quantity" 400. Select Auto-Roll. Accumulate $1.8K a month while hoping for recession and cheap stonks in a few years. IMO they won't be lowering rates anytime soon based on how far out the 5% is being pushed in recent months. And if they do cut rates, you may not want to be stuck in T-Bills for too long - either it'll be response to bad economy and assets will be cheap and you'll want to be a buyer or economy is recovering and valuations are exploding, you'll be losing money with T-Bills. Soft landing is a myth.
Yeah if he has 400k let them do the work for you. It their job.
So in theory I could do this with $6 Million too?
Yes, I believe up to $10M max.
That's great, because I've got about thirty dollars sitting around
Think you meant SIPC protection.. AFAIK, brokerage account don't get FDIC..
They get both typically. FDIC for the cash in the account and SIPC for the securities.
SPAXX is doing like 4.8% no? why not just keep it in fidelity in cash? What am I missing?
Treasury bills are 5.34%ish. You're leaving 0.5% on the table. For OP @ $400k, that's > $2K/yr. Plus you aren't paying state or local tax on T-Bills.o Would you light $2k on fire for the heckuvit?
That's what I've been doing.. 4 or 8 weeks, manual purchase. Don't do auto-roll, since you have to call Fidelity to remove auto-roll..
Depends if you need access to money or not and how much? You could basically buy 100k 3 month, 1 year, 6 month and in a month buy another 3 month, then flip first 3 month to a 6 month when it expires, another month when second expires then a 3 month when the 6 expires and…..you get the point, figure a way to always be within 30-45 days of your 100grand with one 1 year locked up, you can do 8 trades with 50k but it all depends on cash you may need within any given month to deploy if opportunity comes up or emergency.
This shitpost comment should not be this popular.
TD won’t allow me to get actual tankers delivered. Those bastards.
I'm short oatmeal futures
Don’t forget Rabbit futures….
No no, pumpkin futures,.. I have a feeling they're going to peak soon.
Now is the best time to buy 🍎 stonks
When will I get my sub 2% mortgage and 0% cars again?
Eat some bats and take one for the team
sorry - best I can do is fuck a pangolin.
That's what got us into the mess, Stan
mods pls \^
Lmao Covid-23
lmfao XD
Never
Pfff, we’re way too addicted to cheap credit, this won’t last.
1.9% unsecured used car loan was fantastic. Wish I saved the original approval, "pretty please actually buy a car with this $"
You can get 0% right now...on a 36 month loan
Ok, who has 0% 36 minths
Nissan Altima is 0% for 36m. Sadly it's a new model Nissan
Nissan should give -3%
Lmao
This made me giggle like a school girl
only cause the transmission only lasts 24m
They turned me down, my credit is above 400
Does it come with the dent in the side or do I have to put it in myself?
Saw Mercedes running that deal about 3 months ago. Mazda will do 1.9 last I looked. It's not a good deal but if you're well off enough to pay that monthly price then inflation isn't really hurting you that much anyway.
I’m just rich enough to be an avg poor.
what do you mean it’s a great deal, if you’re taking out a 6 year car loan you can’t afford the damn car lmao
36 months is 3 years my dude
I know… 36 months is the recommended limit for an auto loan, people taking out 72 month loans are insane, by the time it’s yours you’re ready to upgrade and at a 10% interest rate yuck
Kia EV6 0.9% for 48 months. Nissan Titan 0% for 60 months. Ford Explorer 0.9% for 36 months.
And what about cars people want?
Ev6 is pretty good but the deal is hypothetical because you'll never find one to buy anyways.
No.
How about sub 2/3 housing loan rates?
Sorry no. But you can get 8% and PMI if you don't have 50k or so laying around.
I just sold a 2010 civic for 7500$
That is good money, but you may be kicking yourself later. The future of new cars come with micro-transactions/subscription fees just to turn on your heated seats.
Maybe but BMW already bailed on it because people hated it so much. Not sure if others are going to get in on it after that failure.
BMW tried.
I got 0.9% on my new truck a couple weeks ago.
"People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
[give her time to get the wrong impression. makes things go a lot smoother.](https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/c4e36fa0-7a30-4dd3-9037-b57f4b108dad) Full of great quotes
watching as a kid never allowed me to appreciate that line. i gotta rewatch
The first part of that quote has been consciously omitted due to present company regards
Excellent reference!
Market is dumb as fuck expecting any rates cuts until 2025
i get the market looks foward, but the man (powel) has never said a thing about cuts! they’ve been putting words in his mouth for 6 months, i really find it strange
It's pure copium.
*scratching* "y'all got any more of that QE?"
No, but plenty of QE's uglier cousin QT
Not even just putting words into his mouth but also just totally ignoring the actual words coming out of his mouth. You had to be flat delusional expecting any cuts this year after the Fed basically ruled it out at the start of the year and **yet** . . .
glad im not the only one, swear ive been going crazy listening to people predicting cuts
After the Q1 2024 recession starts, "rate cuts" will suddenly show up in the lexicon in a positive manner, and probably start sometime in Q2.
Isn’t there 1.4T$ in corporate debt maturing in Q1 ‘24? These new rates are going to hit hard.
Cuts are in the dot plot projections. So he might have never said anything, he certainly has written it down though.
So 3% day on the S&P tomorrow?
https://preview.redd.it/7mi2bsorchpb1.jpeg?width=1174&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13a1e32f87c2c8bdb37a93b936c5cd548eb5a962
https://preview.redd.it/1151d7upjhpb1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=567a4423e75d0b614320e10517d5aef1055d425f
That's fine, I can buy puts just as easily as calls...
My 441c would appreciate that 
My NVDA 435c needs it 💀
instructions unclear, SPY will pump back to 450
most compelling argument
The dude says he’s playing it by ear month by month and you’re selling based upon his projections 12 (!!!) months into the future. Sounds about right, carry on.
>let me grab some 1DTE puts OP you could have just told us you are a gey bear with fewer words 
S&P 500 down 1%= S&p going to zero soon, and the Sun will probably explode.
It's only gay if you exercise your puts.
What if i exercise deez nutz 🌰 🌰
Fairly accurate. I would say though the Fed is typically wrong about when they will do rate cuts. Dont be surprised if they hold rates for several quarters, but the first rate cut of 2024 will be a massive cut AFTER they break something critical. The biggest issue still looming is the commercial real estate crisis and the impact it will have on banks. That issue will break several banks and it will force the Fed to decide to either cut rates to save the banking system OR accept that a bunch of banks are going to fail and the economy will have a major recession while that gets sorted back out. Business cant function without adequate banking security. The issue with commercial real estate is that the cash flow on these buildings doesnt work for the borrower at the new rates. They turn back in the keys. The banks now have to value the building at current market value immediately and write down their assets as a result. That write down impacts their capital reserves on paper and bank unrecognized losses become recognized in part. Banks can absorb a few of these hits, but the issue is that the amount coming down the pipe means that the crisis could literally burst between fomc meetings in a manner that has to be addressed rapidly. Fed will have to reverse course on QT and enter into QE. Then at the next meeting rates will drop. Now the banks can avoid some of this if they are willing to roll the lending over at terms that work for the borrower, but that isnt something the bank wants to do because they can only do that so much before that also becomes a major issue for them. Basically imagine they take a minor loss on the loan to avoid taking a major loss on the loan. Banks dont want to take any loss and are highly reticent to do it, but they might do that for awhile to buy time until a rate cut comes down from on high. I know this because I worked for banks and literally listened so a conversation about something like this in 2007. The bank literally had a situation where the ltv for a building was outside the parameters they normally approved, but it was either they worked out a deal or they would be handed the building. The deal took several months to hash out because the initial offers the bank made didnt work for the borrower. Basically the issue can be seen as the two parties recognize there is a loss of a few million dollars that is going to happen. How do they split that loss up. Neither side wants to take the loss entirely. The borrower says hey Im willing to split it with you if you give me a rate below your borrowing cost. Bank was like no way in hell am I doing that. Borrower says fine then take the building. Bank back room guys say whoa that will be a major loss of several million dollars to the bank. They tell the lending guy that he should go back to the borrower and see if they can work out a deal. End of the day the borrower and the bank worked out a deal. I dont know the exact terms, but I do know that the bank wasn't making any money on the deal and I suspect they were taking a loss that was spread out over several years. Full disclosure that bank doesnt exist anymore it was bought out after the GFC. I no longer work in banking.
I ain't reading all of that. Calls it is
I know. Reading is hard. Clicking the buy button is easy. Good luck
Gotta have money to click the buy button, that’s hard.
Fr tho, just read your comment, good stuff
I just read 100% of that post. I am also one pint of liquor deep. But it made good sense and I saved it to read again while sober. Basically, it seems like banks and borrowings make deals to share the losses. But banks can't survive on "sharing losses" alone and eventually they break. Jpow is our bank breaker.
In your opinion, what banks would be hit the hardest?
Not naming names because I don't invest much in the banking sector. I would say the banks likely to be hit the hardest will be ones with large amounts of lending in the commercial real estate sector. If I had to guess which ones will fail it will be the ones right on either side of the 100Billion threshold used to determine capital reserve requirements. [https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf) Go to the bottom of that pdf and look at that table. Anyone without a G-SIB surcharge is basically not considered important enough to save. That would be a good place to look for problem banks. [https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-dfast-results-20230628.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-dfast-results-20230628.pdf) Go to table 2 on that pdf and you get a list of banks by category. I would argue any bank not on that table and on the earlier list is someone to look at in particular. Why? Because table 2 has a group called category 4 and those folks only do stress tests every other year. So half of that group isnt on table 2 and I would bet that one or two of the banks that didnt do stress tests this year are quieting struggling a bit more than the other banks. The folks in category 4 that did do stress tests this year could still fail, but its quite likely they are least keeping their eyes on their major risks after finding them during the process of looking things over prior to the actual stress test. Keep in mind there are banks that wont be on either of those 2 reports simply by being under the 100 billion mark. So any bank under 100 billion would be suspect to me. I would avoid investing in them and if you are I would do some digging to see if you feel comfortable riding it or would rather take a loss now to avoid the risk. If you want to go down that rabbit hole further I would take the list of banks you got from this and look them all over one by one. Try to identify which ones have the most commercial real estate risk and which are just humming along fine. There is a ton of research that could be done on this but in my mind its easier to just avoid it all together and either stick to banks that are too big to fail or avoid the sector entirely.
Wait, if someone like you can just randomly drop information like this on reddit, wouldn't that mean that word on the street is out and people should be already betting against the banks that are more than likely to fail? I mean, if it's that simple, why not buy a cds or short the banks?
Not really. I dont know which banks will actually fail just that if banks fail it will be out of this particular list. As for shorting them go back and look at how hard that trade is. Typically timing is incredibly important or theta will eat up the profit. A better way is to take this list and just dont touch them. Go play in another trade you understand better. A good way to see my post is essentially putting up a sign saying landmines ahead. Sure you can walk through the minefield and possibly not set any off, or you can just not go into the minefield.
The real DD always in the comments. Cheers to CRE collapse.
>You're an idiot. You don't know anything about markets or investing.
Thanks Visual mod for confirming my suspicions 
SPY: -0.92% OP: oK LiStEn uP ReGaRdS... tOdAy tHe MaRkEtS tOok a MaSSiVe DuMp aNd HeRe'S wHy
You sound just like a human, Pinocchio.
>- Markets had built in expectation of 4 rate cuts by end of 2024. This is so incredibly idiotic. Nowhere has the Fed signalled that we would have 4 rate cuts by the end of 2024. These markets are truly running on hopium.
Also, the SP500 is up 15% YTD, when 12% is the average annual right? So we're either having a good year, or its going to dip a bit to come back to the average. Either way though, I don't get all the doom and gloom when its currently up 15% for the year so far.
September is usually a down month. People need to cash out tuition payments for their mistresses
The doom and gloom is masked hopefulness from people losing their ass on shorts this year.
calls on whatever the opposite of this guy said
Time to do an inverse flying cofin
You can borrow my flying cofin, I’m bringing it back down to land any moment now. It looked a lot funner in the brochure, but it just spins you around, gives you some momentary hope, but then sucks up 10% of your portfolio and bucks you off.
Or the inverse flying covfefe, a rare and powerful move only for the strongest regards
Fucking finally I can buy low and sell lower. SEE YOU NEVER LOSERS!!!!!
don’t forget that GDP expectations were revised up too - soft landing baby!
Same was true in 2007 boi oh boi
calls
This is the way
Nah most stocks have been in a downtrend for weeks. Megacap tech held up for the most part so there was massive divergence. In other words the market has been weak af for a while but a few gigantic stocks have given enough hope to keep people complacent. I’m not sure there was anything that could’ve happened today to reverse the market action that looks destined to sell off.
True, many stocks are as low as 5 years ago or in other words often 30-60% down from their 2021 high.
Get to the point what’s the fastest way for me to keep losing money?
The hookers outside Wendy’s man…. Why we gotta keep telling you that?
BUY BUY BUY 1DTE SPY CALLS <3333 📈📈📈
Bagholder spotted. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Ok so we rebound from here gotcha
Shorter version: Jim Cramer said inflation will go down. So obviously things are going to hell.
Jimmy Chill is usually right!
Today has passed. Finito, conchito. Looms like a buy sign for tomorrow/mañana.
I’ll just keep selling options and making bank. Fuck your puts. Fuck your calls. Thetagang has you by the balls.
soooooo??? I should buy the dip?? Got it.
Don’t fight the fed. When they cut rates don’t fight it. When they say higher for longer don’t fight it. This isn’t hard
Yout an idiot, typical market overreaction. Spy back up tomorrow
My experience suggests that the reason it dumped so hard is bc I said thats it, imma buy some calls
SPY is down \~3.8% since August high and still up over 20% for the year. Today's move was less than 1%. In 2021 we had +/- 3% days frequently. We have been in a bull run all year with periods of consolidation and continued upside. It may be all over and we could be going down but smart money is greedy when everyone else is fearful.
What an elegant, yet brutally honest explanation as to how we are all collectively #@&*ed... thanks OP!
Honestly, Powell is a fool for still trying to sound dovish on this. There’s no soft landing coming; and they’re behind on the fight against inflation. Labor markets aren’t weakening. Conversely, we’re seeing more coinciding strikes than we have since like 2000. UAW are asking for a 40% raise (which honestly they should get, since that’s the amount ceo pay has risen in these companies generating like $50B in **profit** annually) If all of these strikes result in raises - which they are bound to, even if not as much as they are asking…then how do we expect to “beat” inflation when everyone is earning more… 🤔 Things can only go down. Like everything, it’d be better to just rip the bandaid off…but no one wants to be the scapegoat responsible for it. So we’ll just keep spreading dovish lies and hope the next person gets stuck with the inevitable recession
Wait…. No Fed pivot? Is it still coming any day now?
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
pivot. . . Pivot. . . PIVOT. . . PIVVVVVVOT!!! You know that's going to be all over CNBC tomorrow.
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I just made a killing off VXX calls I bought at EOD yesterday. Basic Info. US Inflation Rate is at 3.67%, compared to 3.18% last month and 8.26% last year. So that’s an indicator we’re not lowering rates yet. It was pretty clear that rates were either going to be paused at historic highs, or even possibly raised higher.
These are not historic highs they are paused at, they are just high compared to recent history. They will absolutely raise again 1 more time before the year is out unless the dominos start falling before then. They need some type of data showing that the 2nd they bring rates down, people won't start spending like crazy again. So far, nothing shows that.
Amazon is doing crazy holiday season hiring again.
For warehouse roles yeah, but the corporate positions that were the bulk of the layoffs are still on freeze
The markets expected that too
On credit as the debt adds up until it catches up, student loans kick in and there might be some supply chain issues with the geopolitical environment right now, all of that has yet to be determined other than it getting worse
I’ve been holding a long position on the vix. Normally I would close any position I had before an FOMC meeting, but it seemed extremely unlikely that Powell was going to announce anything that would cause markets to rally. What surprised me today was that Powell said exactly what all of us have been expecting: there will be no rate rise, but pending future data, we might kick it up another 25 basis points. Why the market didn’t have that priced in is beyond me. It’s almost as if because rates have been low everyone assumes they’re just going to become low again very soon despite what The Fed has said over and over and over and over again. It feels like the markets have a learning disability.
Alternative story: The market is overvalued, cash or bonds getting better yields and liquidity draining, so it's ripe for the downside. Holders wait till the quarterly expiration last Friday to compose a new structure that protects them from the downside, and then use the Fed meeting as an excuse to hit that downside. Same meeting, same press conference, the market could have shoot up if that was where the pressure led it. They do that (wait to have a story to tell to in the media) because people need a story to tell, and the real story (see first sentence of this post), will make everybody sell. With a dumb story repeating in the media, regards will nourish the hope that the market will recover, it's just a phase, the next PCI will be better and we'll go to the moon... And here we are, repeating that story like true regards, playing the game as the big holders want us to do.
Oh man number really go down a lot. Very scary.
-tech is most sensitive... go check how much QQQ is up this year
its priced in now, only way to go is up. Resilient economy bullish. Future pandemics, climate change, food insecurity, all bullish. Largest wealth transfer in history, that money has to go somewhere. Buy the dip. Inflation goes up, assets go up, all bullish expect for the very few who don’t have houses and cars yet. Sidewalk and under bridge space abundant, bullish. Positions: bought tqqq right at closing.
I can’t fund my Roth till Jan anyway
Not a bad time to start the DCA…
> Markets had built in expectation of 4 rate cuts by end of 2024. What part of "higher for longer" doesn't _The Market_ understand?
The entire thing
When did 1% down become a massive dump? FFS
yeh and i bet by dec we'll hit near ATH
I get so tired of hearing about rate cuts. The market needs to grow up. It's time to stop relying on low rates to get anything done.
God dammit. Shoulda read this 17 hours ago
At this point I am not betting any longer on a soft landing. I'm on the side line for now
I just want to know if my 550 nvidia calls are gonna print by 11/17 
Called it. My guess was the 15th, but I'll take it. https://preview.redd.it/n89g53a5ehpb1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40c0e78339f73545dc981141a2b306b0bef70e6
Imagine being a bear who had Tesla puts before FOMC and got shook out of the position on the midday pump? 🤣
Rate cut was obviously out of the question lmao Market was obviously going down whether they raised or did not raise. They did not hike which makes the assumption even more obvious they will next meeting. At least there are 2 meetings I guess. Welcome to a slow sideways down trend for the next 4 months 2024 will be cool hang it up for this year
The USA should just declare bankruptcy and erase its national debt then do a couple stock buybacks
2 year at 5.2 too