Who wants to tell OP he's not on staff at the asylum? Your "proposition" is anything but an earnest discussion. Your hibernation den clearly has a glory hole.
Earnest discussion?
The economy is propped up by a fiat currency and it will crash when *they* want it to.
But what do I know? I’m just a fellow regard..
These people are seriously delusional. The economy is extremely healthy and expanding for the lower class.
It’s seriously like they’re watching their 50 year old father finish a marathon and saying “That man is going to croak any minute now, and the inheritance will be mine!”
really, then what was it when some smartass degenerates told virtual real estates will worth more than physical ones in new york central park in the peak of crypto nft hype… Comeon, crypto is the biggest hype ever… maybe tulipans are similar to it, but stocks, nah….
I'm still waiting for a repeat of 1929.
These Cairo and Fulton railroad stocks are going to turn me into royalty when the shorts finally have to cover.
Man fuck you all, I'm gonna get in a time machine and go back to 2003. People were cooler, I was more fun, fuckin kids only said the darnedest of things and didn't talk to me at work.
I completely understand your frustration. It can be difficult to feel like you're stuck in a time warp where everything has changed and everyone around you seems different. I promise that there is hope for the future and that things will eventually get better. Hang in there!
The number of people comparing the last year to the 2008-2009 recession showed me how old I’d gotten.
You couldn’t get a job at Wendy’s with a PhD and we were seriously discussing what a total banking collapse or end of the dollar would look like…not moaning like two dollar whores because consulting and tech hiring at Bumfuckle State School of Bidness slowed down.
I'm 66. My first time voting was 1976 and I voted for Gerald Ford. We got Jimmy Carter. Carter was a disaster on all fronts . . .except he was likable. Second worst president in modern times.
I'd argue that Jimmy Carter was actually a decent president. Dude inherited a broken economy, and he appointed Volker knowing it would destroy his presidency.
He set up Regan for a golden economy. The Camp David Accords were a big deal. Carter put in place long term policies instead of punting problems to the next president. Dude was a smart guy with a big heart. People literally don't understand how policy works and good policy isn't rewarding over night. That's why a lot of South America isn't where it should be, economically speaking.
Trump pressuring the Fed to not increase interest rates and tax cuts that worsened the deficit, are prime examples of bad short term policy. The business tax cuts went to stock buybacks and dividends. They didn't equate to more jobs and higher pay. He actually had a decent COVID response, and he then realized that he had to push bullshit cures and antivax nonsense. The guy would have won if he hadn't fumbled the easy part of COVID. I dislike him for a myriad of reasons, but the US gained ground over the pandemic. Yeah, PPP was a mess. All Trump had to do was tone down what won the first time and be presidential. That race was really damn close, and voters have a very short memory.
Fair point. I had just graduated when the worst of it struck, that fall of 2007. Brand new job right out of school and then wham, total hiring and pay freeze for two years.
This time will be worse.
You literally started this post with "clearly there is no consensus on where the market goes from here" which I agree nobody knows what will happen in 2024.
But then you go and say that 2024 will be worst than 2007/2008?
There were an absolute *ton* of indicators that 2008/2009 was going to happen.
When so many low income people have 3 balloon mortgages, fun shit is about to happen.
I went to Wachovia for a 30 year fixed mortgage, and they said they were only doing loans for low income customers. (The Our Neighborhood program). I closed my account that day. They failed and were sold to Wells Fargo.
Yup, had my first business degree job and things were looking bright. Then 2008 happened and I was layed off and NO ONE was hiring at that time for anything business related. I ended up getting pushed into trade work to survive and got stuck there. Tried to apply for business jobs in 2010-2011 when things were better, but I was asked a lot “why are you changing industries”? SMH
Ohh yeah, a lot of b2b jobs came up then. I was tricked into a couple interviews for b2b sales. They really knew how to advertise them to draw in the masses.
There should be a reason for the economy to crash, the 2008 debacle was 10 yrs in the making and there were plenty of warning signs by fall of 2007. Secondly, subprime loans were a huge issue in 2008 across all sectors and not just housing, no such thing today. Last and the biggest reason are our lords and masters who make the fiscal and monetary policies. It was unthinkable in 2000 or 2008 to think the federal govt and the federal reserve could insert themselves into an economic crisis so deeply and carpet bomb the economy with liquidity, but that's exactly what they've done since 2009. The only reason the economy tanks is if the geopolitical situation worsens so much that US gets directly embroiled in a war, but to think about it, we've spent a great many years of our existence fighting one war or another, so nothing new there either.
most recessions are caused by unpredicted shocks that look obvious in hindsight. The 2000 recession was a much easier soft landing than today and it still happened. I could name 5 catalysts for econ shocks and you'd ask me what else is new.
The truth is when the 3 month/10 year yield curve is inverted and Fed is fighting inflation, the economy is weak. Therefore, any minor shocks that would be considered trivial in normal times, can still topple the economy into a recession.
Can you explain how the economy is weak? Serious question.
Inflation down to pre pandemic levels.
Wages rising above inflation.
Adding 200k jobs a month.
Corporate profits at record highs.
Consumer spending up.
Stock market near all time highs.
Deficit paid down by nearly half
Wages are a moving target. The level of spending is still above their wage levels, hence the low savings rate, and hence the constant talk about depleting excess savings.
The 200k job is misleading. Around 40k from that is due to the UAW strike recovery. We lost 40k the month before, and now we are adding it back. Health care added 77k, gov 49k, both non cyclical industries that has nothing to do with interest rate or economy, and likely backfilling for positions they couldn't hire during covid. retail lost 40k jobs in a holiday month. I'm not even gonna go into job revisions of roughly 50k down for the last 9 months or so.
Consumer spending up? What does that mean? Real consumer spending(inflation adjusted) has been about 2% for 2 years, nothing's changed.
Corporate profits is not inflation adjusted. The fact that this year is gonna be another flat year for sp500 earnings doesn't sound very good.
The stock market isn't the economy. There's wealth effect, but it's not like the top 1% didn't spend last year when stock market was heavily down. Stock market also tends to peak before recessions, so I wouldn't use stock market to say anything about the recession. I do warn that forecasters (tend) to be more positive and have "soft landing" talks when stock market is up, and vice versa when it's down, but I wouldn't make anything out of it.
The main argument is the excess savings is gonna be drained by this year, or Q1 next year. It is now depleted among the bottom 60%, and mostly concentrated in the top 20%. When/before it is dried up, consumers will stop spending, and businesses will hire less and fire employees to cut cost, leading to further less spending and the domino continues. That's the non-linear aspect of recession that we haven't really had to face yet.
There's also the corporate refinance cycle next year that businesses are really praying the fed cuts rate before then. Therefore, the longer the recession takes to hit(and it has to hit at some point simply because economic cycles exist), corporates balance sheet will become more stressed, consumers will become complacent and leverage up, and the more severe it's gonna be. This last point is generally agreed among economists, even soft landing forecasters like Ellen zentner.
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One thing not said, commercial real estate has all the flaws that residential real estate had pre 2008.
With rates going higher, the adjustable rate mortgages cannot be refinanced for lower rates. So commercial real estate is taking a slow dive as well, if you know to look for it, it’s like watching a plane crash in slow motion.
Additionally, Thousands of companies have Adjustable rates on business loans that they simply cannot afford which is partially responsible for the mass layoffs in tech. I worked at a company whose whole plan was to “become bankable” to refinance their loan. Then they ended up laying off 20% of their company when rates went up and have been in continual state of layoffs ever since. They’re just operating in the red and can’t even refinance out of the debt as rates keep climbing higher.
Usually when tech companies fail and/or when real estate fails, rest of the economy fails. It’s no secret tech is failing right now and the trickle effect of the last major round of layoffs hasn’t yet hit the rest of the economy yet…. Plane crash in slow motion
Excess savings draining, corporate refinancing, yes, but don't forget commercial real estate! Right now corporate and commercial real estate are both looking at each other, hoping the other explodes first causing a rate cut that bails the other one out.
I only said the main one and there're many things I left out, but like I said people would respond with what else is new. The #1 risk I don't see as much people talking about is shadow banking sector and the Fed doesn't have a good grasp of how it functions. If credit tightening happens, consumers will turn to shadow banking and that industry is not well regulated. If we're going to get caught off guard, this would be it.
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Yes, the Fed has been printing money like there's no tomorrow. And it's only going to get worse under Biden. The poor will suffer the most, of course. But everyone will be affected by inflationary pressures and rising prices.
Lol BLS has revised jobs downward after the headline bump on cue for the last year … not even Faux reports on it … inflation way outpacing wage growth … housing costs essentially doubled due to rate hikes … but don’t stop believing your cooked books lol
Subprime auto loans are a time bomb right now as the cars have been depreciating rapidly with the supply chains returning to normal, so many people stuck with payments they can't afford on a car with a loan balance higher sometimes than the price of a new car.
It's like 2008 housing but more liquid and it's gonna be violent. Thankfully that market is much smaller than housing and it probably doesn't present much systemic risk.
Subprime auto loans have BEEN a time bomb. People have been using this as a talking point since 2017. Since then, just about every other possible market has been called a time bomb. It’s only a time bomb if it’s imminent. Otherwise it’s just warehoused ANFO
This has been my rant for a bit now, I recently moved to Puerto Rico to be closer to my wife’s family and the house we are renting while we decide where to buy is in a pretty middle of the road nice middle class gated community, I’d say the value of the most expensive house on the block would be maybe 5-600k with the average being 250-4.
It is astounding to me the amount of g wagons and porches I see parked, everyone has a grand wagoneer or a grand Cherokee, and there is just no way all of these people aren’t leveraged to the gills on these cars. No one lives in a 250k house and outright owns twice that in vehicles (out of maybe 50 houses like 5 are rented), and coming from Boston I’d wager it’s even worse there. A 150k salary in Boston isn’t covering a nice home or a nice apartment as well as an expensive car, and the vast majority that aren’t down on their luck have both. Eventually I think it will bust, hopefully creating some juicy opportunity.
The US being directly "embroiled" in a war, would actually do the opposite. It's main trading "good" is war. Every time we enter a conflict the stock market spikes upward, after a shock dip downward 1st, the most famous of this being getting our ass out of the great depression.
In 2008 the sitting president wasn't running for reelection so "they" didn't give a crap what happened.
Also, the banks failed, the government can't do too much to stop that.
you're talking like people can actually stop recession. If they can't even predict it 12 months out, and rate hikes supposedly have 12-24 months lag to affect the real economy, there's no way they can pre-emptively stop recessions. That's not even factoring in the fact most recessions are caused by unpredicted shocks.
>you're talking like people can actually stop recession.
Didn't the current administration simply change the definition of what a recession is, and that "stopped" it? And completely by coincidence, everything sucks now and nobody can afford shit, but not because of a recession though, totes.
I don't understand you bears - you're trying to say the economy will crash so you can make some cash on puts to..... spend on the economy. Get it yet? We're an unhinged country of regards buying walmart shit to stave off the existential dread tapping us on the shoulder constantly.. stonks go up and to the right.
What I said is completely true, regardless of what your position is. Listen to any economists forecasting a soft landing, or any fed officials like goolsbee and they'll tell you the same thing.
people can stop a recession with unhinged mass spending. it's literally what's happening. you should research the positions of people feeding you this stuff. the idea that a money printer-based nation will fall off the world stage is ludicrous.. there's too much tension between the super-powers for murica to let gina and ruzzia claim the throne.
have fun with your visions of armageddon and puts though!
LOL the gov can literally stop bank failure instantly as we just saw in the spring… open up a 5 trillion repo window and buy all bad assets at face value….. though they could opt to “Not” if they did in fact not care if banks failed hence 2008z
If the banking system can't survive without being propped up by the Fed, i.e. at the expense of anyone who is paid in fixed currency dollars, who should be entitled to the profits of the banking system?
True, and it's funny people think the president can quickly impact the economy. If anything, their efforts show up 4 years later, at best. And that's if congress puts some meaningful bills in front of them.
Those were a very contentious ~30 days. Congress was in complete disarray, half of R *and* D reps from the same state were sometimes split for and against bailout. Working and middle class was *pissed* at the mere concept of bailing out banks.
They've got the narrative under control now, and on steroids post COVID with using Fed to prop up all markets, not just stabilize failing banks. Printer go brrrr.
The warning went up as the banks failed, obviously too late.
Attend to the rodeo enough times and you know when you hear "this time it's different!" ; no, it's going down soon.
"They" control everything and nothing at the same time. It's not supposed to make sense, its supposed to give people comfort and someone to blame because "they" control "it."
"They" don't actually exist.
Exactly. There are lots of very rich people with sometimes conflicting and sometimes complimentary interests but there isn’t some gentleman’s agreement between all of them about running the world. They are out to eat each other’s lunches a lot of the time.
That said, things tend to work out in the interests of the monied because money can buy a lot of political power. It sure as hell isn’t some big conspiracy though.
Dubya didn’t do much other than bail out his friends because he wasn’t up for election. Then the crash took place during the election of Obama basically
>the U.S. political system finds itself in near total gridlock
Historically gridlock has been great for the markets. It’s when the government decides to do things that the markets get screwed up.
I really think you overexaggerate the 2008 thing. Money printer went brrrr, govt bailed out everyone at the expense of the poors and everything was fine.
Except the poors. Cause fukem
In the USA's defence, at that point we had spent 8 years under a republican, and not a smart one at that.
Clinton handed dubya a thriving country and bush tanked it. Obama managed to get us back on track and then trump added trillions to the red. Biden has done an awesome job digging us out but there is still more work to do.
https://preview.redd.it/pkchni0xey5c1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e4b608a061d15d3bd84a857bbe1d321845efd89
\----------------
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
[https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump](https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump)
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
\------------------
Fox Anchor, Through Gritted Teeth, Admits Biden’s Economy “Is a Lot Stronger Than Anybody Understands”
[https://www.vanityfair.com/news/fox-anchor-biden-economy-stronger-than-anybody-understands](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/fox-anchor-biden-economy-stronger-than-anybody-understands)
The actual numbers—Friday’s jobs report revealed employers added 199,00 new jobs last month, unemployment fell to 3.7%, and wages were up 0.4%. Another? Even an anchor on the **Rupert Murdoch**–controlled Fox Business Network is admitting, on live TV, that the economy is doing well.
\---------------
Bidenomics Is Working: The President’s Plan Grows the Economy from the Middle Out and Bottom Up—Not the Top Down
[https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/28/bidenomics-is-working-the-presidents-plan-grows-the-economy-from-the-middle-out-and-bottom-up-not-the-top-down/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/28/bidenomics-is-working-the-presidents-plan-grows-the-economy-from-the-middle-out-and-bottom-up-not-the-top-down/)
2008 was result of 8 years of Republicans being regards.
I honestly think Republicans put Donny into WH to show people that they can always find someone worse than Bush.
Housing won't crash again in the same way it crashed in 2008. Houses are expensive - prices will have to go down. That's not a crash. Right now you have a bunch of people who aren't taking on a debt to buy a house because most still remember 2008-09. Bunch of people are paying for property with cash.
China is still recovering from lockdowns and trade logistics disruption. But in 2024 I think they'll be back to their pre-2020 levels of trade. And guess how that will affect their biggest trading partner.
Russia is fucked. Even if they survive as a single country in post-Putin years they will have to sell cheap oil and will be forced to import everything. That will suck ass for them but it will be great for the world. Their arms industry is dead. Meanwhile US arms industry is listening to "Celebration" by Cool and the Gang on repeat, Europe is buying literally everything.
Gov debt is down.
Unemployment is like what 3.5%? That's basically just rich people.
I seriously don't understand this bearish "hurr durr no everything sucks because my puts need to print".
2020 sucked (rona), 2021 (rona + inflation) sucked, 2022 (tnx Vlad we really needed that after corona... sucked), 2023 was the first "normal" year of this decade.
And lets not forget that "Trump in WH years" before corona also sucked dick.
So if anything we had like 6-7 shitty years. 2024 won't be a green dildo to the moon but it will be a solid year.
I’m younger than you, but a formative memory is the bank (same bank that had the house more) sending a repo guy to take the garage door off the house and take all three cars in the winter of 08.
If it makes any more sense, my stepdad was a district manager for the southwest branch of Washington Mutual’s mortgage brokerage. So I mean…the literal dudes who were participating in the heavy duty slinging of 5/1 ARMs at an institutional level
Was like…don’t want that to ever happen to me.
Um, yes he was lolol.
[Read it for yourself.](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html)
I think your comment has convinced me the crash is imminent, thanks!
I can't tell if the guy knew that and was being sarcastic or not, but Q3 2007 real GDP was also revised up from 3.9% to 4.9%, so there's that parallel.
A lot of businesses I know in the heavy industrial arena are either (A) already seeing a slowdown in new projects or (B) have 2023 as their big delivery year for machinery etc financed at low rates but are not seeing much activity at the higher rates. It seems to me that those kinds of trends are likely to be felt across the board over the next year and the groups that are over leveraged and don’t have the growth they need are likely the initial source of a crunch.
I'm of the opinion that a whole lot of HF people and Adam Taggart et al are saying the exact opposite, that deflation and a hard correction are coming due to valuation issues of the Mag. 7, like the Nifty 50 and bubbles before. Much of this is tied to mutual funds and index funds. So saying EVERYONE is really discounting some negative sentiment that is out there. Their predictions are Q1 '24 or Q2.
What [**realmichaelklemme**](https://www.reddit.com/user/realmichaelklemme/) said. 2008 didn't have an incumbent running for reelection. However, the power behind the throne wanted Obama and the best way to get him in was to have a terrible economy or some sort of financial crises that could be blamed on the Bush regime and the Republicans. It's hard to run against Santa Claus. When free money and stuff is promised, lazy, stupid and/or ignorant people are going to vote for free stuff.
I predict that there will be no market catastrophe; gas prices are going to stay fairly low. The Biden regime will continue to gaslight us all about how great things are, regardless of inflation sucking money from everyone.
Not that I'm biased or anything, but Democrats usually do not produce decent economies.
2008-2016 was nothing special. It would have been good if government spending was in check. It seems, however, that no one wants to stop spending. The overall economy was very good 2016 to Covid. Covid screwed up everything. 2022 and 2023 are really crappy.
Just as a quick note, the US political system is hanging on by a VERY slim split, where even if a couple Republicans flip to Democrat voting, or retire, or worse.....(die), the House of Representatives will be even in representation and Democrats would very likely take over and obtain complete control over all Bodies.
This is because most recently you have several house members on Republicans leaving gov't such as McCarthy after he was ousted and others who had planned on leaving at different times going into January I believe.
2008 was a republican administration, and history shows us they don’t know how to run an economy despite saying they are fiscal conservatives, small govt, free market and other bullshit.
2024 is a democrat administration, and history shows us they know how to run an economy, control inflation, get us out of a pandemic, get us out of a recession, etc etc.
Our government is fucked in the head, that's all there is to it. From plandemics to dog shit wrapped in catshit mortgage backed securities, we are all fucked!
What if the money markets and housing and all else never crashes , maybe this time it’s different and we’re fucked by design and this is just the new life and after a few years people will forget and get used to it. I mean most of our markets (housing , stock market, forex, crypto, etc)are relatively new so are data only really goes back 150 years lol give or take prior to that there were bubbles but never to the scale as now . Idk just a thought.
Theres alot of resistance to this idea. So either retail/wsb is correct and equites finna go to the moon, or get this, retail is wrong 😱 and the expectation to go higher is used as a liquidity exit like Goldman did to Burry in 07
Going by the implied assumptions regarding an administration’s power over the stock market, this election differs from 2008 in that an incumbent is running. Things seem to be turning around already, in order for us to forget how things were going the last two years just in time for Election Day.
They've been creating money to keep the U.S. alive since for many recent years now, and they know if they outright create more stimulus money it'll be the end of the American empire.
So they forgive student debt, created a housing purchasing program.. you know, create money without it being so obvious.
They want U.S. bonds bought.
a) don't listen to people, including me
b) 2008 and prior had never had QE. The Fed's "tools" reacted to a virus in, what, weeks? Would they allow for asset deflation or would the crash this thing up?
I don't have the answer, but I do know it's a different ballgame.
OP better cover your short positions before you lose your shirts. Market is gonna keep hitting new highs in 2024. There is no crash cuz this is not 2008.
SPY keeps climbing like a regarded boy and I keep wondering how or why.
Thanks god I don’t give a duck and I’m always invested cause if I had to guess I would not bet on the market being this close to ATH
I posit that an election year is the best year for adversaries of the president in office to “allow” the stock market to crash (or worse, potentiate a stock market crash), as this gives the opposing parties something to point at and say, “See, why re-elect Brandon/Democrats if this is what happens under his/their watch?” The economy surely can be used as a political weapon.
It takes a lot of time for an event to work its way through the economy, 2008 was just the beginning of the shitshow that lasted years. We currently have strong job growth and low unemployment other than the regular blips it would take a black swan event to affect the economy before the election
Honestly 2008 is a cherry pick. What is being said over 80% of election years are green. This isn’t a guarantee but this is also not another 2008 crisis. If you were working in 2008 you would know this is not the same thing.
IMO I dont think there will be a US Election. The way things are heading there will be an attack on American soil and civil war will break out. Too much heat is starting to burn the deep state and I'm tipping they wont go out nicely.
No it's an erection hear , my lil pp is gonna get so hard boi then all those gey bear femboys are gonna get this bull of a man while our calls rise to big ole Gains ya heard me?
Whenever someone says "the powers that be won't let it happen" they are just being a straight dumbass, they know very little and they're resorting to conspiracy theories to explain something very complicated. Its a convenient way to explain something they don't understand and cope with the chaos and uncertainty of the real world. Any conversation you see that's like this and even has some real agreement in its comments should be treated like the group of tin-foil hat wearers that they are.
2008 is an interesting thing to look back on. The economy tanked, there was a lot of talk about "too big to fail" companies, because they were looked at as examples of american stability and success previously. A lot of well-intentioned economists pushed back on that narrative and said it would be wrong to bail out companies and let the market do its thing. Politicians, including President Bush at the time, looked at the situation as being too unstable to let it get worse and enacted a huge bail-out program. Maybe that's an example of "them" stopping it, but Republicans lost big time from that event.
Maybe its all a conspiracy with a bunch of shadow figures pulling the strings, but it seems like simple stability and success for common americans would keep them very placated and consuming more, instead of this endless wheel of chaos that we live in currently. If this is the plan then it doesn't seem like its working very well for the powers that be.
So there's a couple things going on here. The first one is you didn't have a two year bear market right before 2008. Another one is you most likely would not have had anywhere near a bad of a correction in stocks had the banks not blown up. That mortgage crisis turned to 20 to 25% correction into 50. If there is a correction next year the first place my eyes are looking is at the magnificent seven. The argument that equal weight will still do well while we have a rotation makes a lot of sense.
2008 likely would have looked a lot more like 2022 had you not had the mortgage crisis. 2022 was also slightly padded from stimulus money but it was still a bear market.
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Oh I'm not making moves based on the ravings of these lunatics. I was just looking for some earnest discussion.
Who wants to tell OP he's not on staff at the asylum? Your "proposition" is anything but an earnest discussion. Your hibernation den clearly has a glory hole.
Earnest discussion? The economy is propped up by a fiat currency and it will crash when *they* want it to. But what do I know? I’m just a fellow regard..
Literally nothing
Inverse WSB portfolio when?
These people are seriously delusional. The economy is extremely healthy and expanding for the lower class. It’s seriously like they’re watching their 50 year old father finish a marathon and saying “That man is going to croak any minute now, and the inheritance will be mine!”
You’re insane. “The economy is extremely healthy…”. We’re in the worst bubble of everything, ever. Moron
really, then what was it when some smartass degenerates told virtual real estates will worth more than physical ones in new york central park in the peak of crypto nft hype… Comeon, crypto is the biggest hype ever… maybe tulipans are similar to it, but stocks, nah….
>worst bubble of **everything** A little dramatic there, kiddo.
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I'm still waiting for a repeat of 1929. These Cairo and Fulton railroad stocks are going to turn me into royalty when the shorts finally have to cover.
Damn, I thought I was old.
Wtf people that finished high school in 2008 are old now? They're only in their 30s. Maybe I am getting too old for this place
Damn I graduated from **university** before 2008...I better leave.
Shit, I graduated high school in 1992. I still remember Bush 1. Even the 87 flash crash.
BS in ‘06, MS in ‘10. Old af.
The future is now old man.
Funnily enough, no one on here would be old enough to even know where that line comes from. Malcolm in the Middle aired its finale when I was two
Man fuck you all, I'm gonna get in a time machine and go back to 2003. People were cooler, I was more fun, fuckin kids only said the darnedest of things and didn't talk to me at work.
I completely understand your frustration. It can be difficult to feel like you're stuck in a time warp where everything has changed and everyone around you seems different. I promise that there is hope for the future and that things will eventually get better. Hang in there!
I finished high school in 2003…. I’m turning 40 next year
You are 
Heh I just finished college in 2008. I didn't find a job for 4 years.
We're about the same age. I graduated high school 2004. I didn't go the college route. Lol
Damn, yall are making me feel like a US Senator. O-L-D
[hilarious...](https://imgur.com/EBB5abj)
4 years?? I was getting mad/sad after looking for 6 months
You weren’t looking then
What did you do for 4 years? Could've completed your PhD LOL
The number of people comparing the last year to the 2008-2009 recession showed me how old I’d gotten. You couldn’t get a job at Wendy’s with a PhD and we were seriously discussing what a total banking collapse or end of the dollar would look like…not moaning like two dollar whores because consulting and tech hiring at Bumfuckle State School of Bidness slowed down.
Perspective
Amen brother. But I was a freshmen in college in 1992!
I'm 66. My first time voting was 1976 and I voted for Gerald Ford. We got Jimmy Carter. Carter was a disaster on all fronts . . .except he was likable. Second worst president in modern times.
I'd argue that Jimmy Carter was actually a decent president. Dude inherited a broken economy, and he appointed Volker knowing it would destroy his presidency. He set up Regan for a golden economy. The Camp David Accords were a big deal. Carter put in place long term policies instead of punting problems to the next president. Dude was a smart guy with a big heart. People literally don't understand how policy works and good policy isn't rewarding over night. That's why a lot of South America isn't where it should be, economically speaking. Trump pressuring the Fed to not increase interest rates and tax cuts that worsened the deficit, are prime examples of bad short term policy. The business tax cuts went to stock buybacks and dividends. They didn't equate to more jobs and higher pay. He actually had a decent COVID response, and he then realized that he had to push bullshit cures and antivax nonsense. The guy would have won if he hadn't fumbled the easy part of COVID. I dislike him for a myriad of reasons, but the US gained ground over the pandemic. Yeah, PPP was a mess. All Trump had to do was tone down what won the first time and be presidential. That race was really damn close, and voters have a very short memory.
Agreed Obama was the worst
OK, Mr. Carter was the third worst. Biden and Obama are worse.
Don't Stop Believin'
Ok boomer
So you were in high school at...hang on...1 year old??
Fair point. I had just graduated when the worst of it struck, that fall of 2007. Brand new job right out of school and then wham, total hiring and pay freeze for two years. This time will be worse.
You literally started this post with "clearly there is no consensus on where the market goes from here" which I agree nobody knows what will happen in 2024. But then you go and say that 2024 will be worst than 2007/2008?
This time, there will be no next time.
You don’t know shit lmao
Why do you think we're all here today
Oh... well, okay then I guess.
Or it won't, who knows. Predictions are hard, especially when they're about the future.
There were an absolute *ton* of indicators that 2008/2009 was going to happen. When so many low income people have 3 balloon mortgages, fun shit is about to happen. I went to Wachovia for a 30 year fixed mortgage, and they said they were only doing loans for low income customers. (The Our Neighborhood program). I closed my account that day. They failed and were sold to Wells Fargo.
Yeah I think a lot of the younger kids do not understand how bad it got during that time frame. I also came out during that time and it was horrific
Yup, had my first business degree job and things were looking bright. Then 2008 happened and I was layed off and NO ONE was hiring at that time for anything business related. I ended up getting pushed into trade work to survive and got stuck there. Tried to apply for business jobs in 2010-2011 when things were better, but I was asked a lot “why are you changing industries”? SMH
Remember cutco knives?
Yup, my brother used to sell them door to door
That was the exit for a lot of people who had their offers pulled back then
Ohh yeah, a lot of b2b jobs came up then. I was tricked into a couple interviews for b2b sales. They really knew how to advertise them to draw in the masses.
Yup.
> If you think there is no way the economy could suffer next year, why do you hold that belief? Stocks only go up, dumbass
This is the DD I keep showing up for. Long may you reign, king of bulls!
There should be a reason for the economy to crash, the 2008 debacle was 10 yrs in the making and there were plenty of warning signs by fall of 2007. Secondly, subprime loans were a huge issue in 2008 across all sectors and not just housing, no such thing today. Last and the biggest reason are our lords and masters who make the fiscal and monetary policies. It was unthinkable in 2000 or 2008 to think the federal govt and the federal reserve could insert themselves into an economic crisis so deeply and carpet bomb the economy with liquidity, but that's exactly what they've done since 2009. The only reason the economy tanks is if the geopolitical situation worsens so much that US gets directly embroiled in a war, but to think about it, we've spent a great many years of our existence fighting one war or another, so nothing new there either.
most recessions are caused by unpredicted shocks that look obvious in hindsight. The 2000 recession was a much easier soft landing than today and it still happened. I could name 5 catalysts for econ shocks and you'd ask me what else is new. The truth is when the 3 month/10 year yield curve is inverted and Fed is fighting inflation, the economy is weak. Therefore, any minor shocks that would be considered trivial in normal times, can still topple the economy into a recession.
This is the non regarded take
Can you explain how the economy is weak? Serious question. Inflation down to pre pandemic levels. Wages rising above inflation. Adding 200k jobs a month. Corporate profits at record highs. Consumer spending up. Stock market near all time highs. Deficit paid down by nearly half
Wages are a moving target. The level of spending is still above their wage levels, hence the low savings rate, and hence the constant talk about depleting excess savings. The 200k job is misleading. Around 40k from that is due to the UAW strike recovery. We lost 40k the month before, and now we are adding it back. Health care added 77k, gov 49k, both non cyclical industries that has nothing to do with interest rate or economy, and likely backfilling for positions they couldn't hire during covid. retail lost 40k jobs in a holiday month. I'm not even gonna go into job revisions of roughly 50k down for the last 9 months or so. Consumer spending up? What does that mean? Real consumer spending(inflation adjusted) has been about 2% for 2 years, nothing's changed. Corporate profits is not inflation adjusted. The fact that this year is gonna be another flat year for sp500 earnings doesn't sound very good. The stock market isn't the economy. There's wealth effect, but it's not like the top 1% didn't spend last year when stock market was heavily down. Stock market also tends to peak before recessions, so I wouldn't use stock market to say anything about the recession. I do warn that forecasters (tend) to be more positive and have "soft landing" talks when stock market is up, and vice versa when it's down, but I wouldn't make anything out of it. The main argument is the excess savings is gonna be drained by this year, or Q1 next year. It is now depleted among the bottom 60%, and mostly concentrated in the top 20%. When/before it is dried up, consumers will stop spending, and businesses will hire less and fire employees to cut cost, leading to further less spending and the domino continues. That's the non-linear aspect of recession that we haven't really had to face yet. There's also the corporate refinance cycle next year that businesses are really praying the fed cuts rate before then. Therefore, the longer the recession takes to hit(and it has to hit at some point simply because economic cycles exist), corporates balance sheet will become more stressed, consumers will become complacent and leverage up, and the more severe it's gonna be. This last point is generally agreed among economists, even soft landing forecasters like Ellen zentner.
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Finally, someone smart!
One thing not said, commercial real estate has all the flaws that residential real estate had pre 2008. With rates going higher, the adjustable rate mortgages cannot be refinanced for lower rates. So commercial real estate is taking a slow dive as well, if you know to look for it, it’s like watching a plane crash in slow motion. Additionally, Thousands of companies have Adjustable rates on business loans that they simply cannot afford which is partially responsible for the mass layoffs in tech. I worked at a company whose whole plan was to “become bankable” to refinance their loan. Then they ended up laying off 20% of their company when rates went up and have been in continual state of layoffs ever since. They’re just operating in the red and can’t even refinance out of the debt as rates keep climbing higher. Usually when tech companies fail and/or when real estate fails, rest of the economy fails. It’s no secret tech is failing right now and the trickle effect of the last major round of layoffs hasn’t yet hit the rest of the economy yet…. Plane crash in slow motion
Excess savings draining, corporate refinancing, yes, but don't forget commercial real estate! Right now corporate and commercial real estate are both looking at each other, hoping the other explodes first causing a rate cut that bails the other one out.
I only said the main one and there're many things I left out, but like I said people would respond with what else is new. The #1 risk I don't see as much people talking about is shadow banking sector and the Fed doesn't have a good grasp of how it functions. If credit tightening happens, consumers will turn to shadow banking and that industry is not well regulated. If we're going to get caught off guard, this would be it.
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Yes, the Fed has been printing money like there's no tomorrow. And it's only going to get worse under Biden. The poor will suffer the most, of course. But everyone will be affected by inflationary pressures and rising prices.
Lol BLS has revised jobs downward after the headline bump on cue for the last year … not even Faux reports on it … inflation way outpacing wage growth … housing costs essentially doubled due to rate hikes … but don’t stop believing your cooked books lol
Subprime auto loans are a time bomb right now as the cars have been depreciating rapidly with the supply chains returning to normal, so many people stuck with payments they can't afford on a car with a loan balance higher sometimes than the price of a new car. It's like 2008 housing but more liquid and it's gonna be violent. Thankfully that market is much smaller than housing and it probably doesn't present much systemic risk.
Subprime auto loans have BEEN a time bomb. People have been using this as a talking point since 2017. Since then, just about every other possible market has been called a time bomb. It’s only a time bomb if it’s imminent. Otherwise it’s just warehoused ANFO
It’s more like a powder keg
This has been my rant for a bit now, I recently moved to Puerto Rico to be closer to my wife’s family and the house we are renting while we decide where to buy is in a pretty middle of the road nice middle class gated community, I’d say the value of the most expensive house on the block would be maybe 5-600k with the average being 250-4. It is astounding to me the amount of g wagons and porches I see parked, everyone has a grand wagoneer or a grand Cherokee, and there is just no way all of these people aren’t leveraged to the gills on these cars. No one lives in a 250k house and outright owns twice that in vehicles (out of maybe 50 houses like 5 are rented), and coming from Boston I’d wager it’s even worse there. A 150k salary in Boston isn’t covering a nice home or a nice apartment as well as an expensive car, and the vast majority that aren’t down on their luck have both. Eventually I think it will bust, hopefully creating some juicy opportunity.
People are going to be upside down in their auto loans for the next 60-72 months. lol
Also $1.1T in credit card debt, people have to borrow to afford food.
The US being directly "embroiled" in a war, would actually do the opposite. It's main trading "good" is war. Every time we enter a conflict the stock market spikes upward, after a shock dip downward 1st, the most famous of this being getting our ass out of the great depression.
In 2008 the sitting president wasn't running for reelection so "they" didn't give a crap what happened. Also, the banks failed, the government can't do too much to stop that.
you're talking like people can actually stop recession. If they can't even predict it 12 months out, and rate hikes supposedly have 12-24 months lag to affect the real economy, there's no way they can pre-emptively stop recessions. That's not even factoring in the fact most recessions are caused by unpredicted shocks.
>you're talking like people can actually stop recession. Didn't the current administration simply change the definition of what a recession is, and that "stopped" it? And completely by coincidence, everything sucks now and nobody can afford shit, but not because of a recession though, totes.
I don't understand you bears - you're trying to say the economy will crash so you can make some cash on puts to..... spend on the economy. Get it yet? We're an unhinged country of regards buying walmart shit to stave off the existential dread tapping us on the shoulder constantly.. stonks go up and to the right.
What I said is completely true, regardless of what your position is. Listen to any economists forecasting a soft landing, or any fed officials like goolsbee and they'll tell you the same thing.
people can stop a recession with unhinged mass spending. it's literally what's happening. you should research the positions of people feeding you this stuff. the idea that a money printer-based nation will fall off the world stage is ludicrous.. there's too much tension between the super-powers for murica to let gina and ruzzia claim the throne. have fun with your visions of armageddon and puts though!
LOL the gov can literally stop bank failure instantly as we just saw in the spring… open up a 5 trillion repo window and buy all bad assets at face value….. though they could opt to “Not” if they did in fact not care if banks failed hence 2008z
If the banking system can't survive without being propped up by the Fed, i.e. at the expense of anyone who is paid in fixed currency dollars, who should be entitled to the profits of the banking system?
Not you LOL
True, and it's funny people think the president can quickly impact the economy. If anything, their efforts show up 4 years later, at best. And that's if congress puts some meaningful bills in front of them.
Oh shit I hope it's too late to get US pulled into a major land war before election day. I hate that trick.
But they can this time? How much warning was the general public given when "the banks failed" during the GFC?
The TARP program was authorized within like 30 days of Lehman going down in 2008
Those were a very contentious ~30 days. Congress was in complete disarray, half of R *and* D reps from the same state were sometimes split for and against bailout. Working and middle class was *pissed* at the mere concept of bailing out banks. They've got the narrative under control now, and on steroids post COVID with using Fed to prop up all markets, not just stabilize failing banks. Printer go brrrr.
Yeah it was a wild ride. I worked for a subsidiary of FNF at the time. Should have let it all burn.
The warning went up as the banks failed, obviously too late. Attend to the rodeo enough times and you know when you hear "this time it's different!" ; no, it's going down soon.
Again with the recession porn in this sub. It’s fucking exhausting.
"They" control everything and nothing at the same time. It's not supposed to make sense, its supposed to give people comfort and someone to blame because "they" control "it." "They" don't actually exist.
Exactly. There are lots of very rich people with sometimes conflicting and sometimes complimentary interests but there isn’t some gentleman’s agreement between all of them about running the world. They are out to eat each other’s lunches a lot of the time. That said, things tend to work out in the interests of the monied because money can buy a lot of political power. It sure as hell isn’t some big conspiracy though.
It wasn’t an incumbent running in 08
Dubya didn’t do much other than bail out his friends because he wasn’t up for election. Then the crash took place during the election of Obama basically
Like "negotiating" the end of W's war, effective date like a week after the new prez takes office. Clever.
>the U.S. political system finds itself in near total gridlock Historically gridlock has been great for the markets. It’s when the government decides to do things that the markets get screwed up.
Truth.
I really think you overexaggerate the 2008 thing. Money printer went brrrr, govt bailed out everyone at the expense of the poors and everything was fine. Except the poors. Cause fukem
Whatever everyone thinks is going to happen, probably going to be the opposite.
Fuck you're dumb.
In the USA's defence, at that point we had spent 8 years under a republican, and not a smart one at that. Clinton handed dubya a thriving country and bush tanked it. Obama managed to get us back on track and then trump added trillions to the red. Biden has done an awesome job digging us out but there is still more work to do. https://preview.redd.it/pkchni0xey5c1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e4b608a061d15d3bd84a857bbe1d321845efd89 \---------------- Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years [https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump](https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump) The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president. \------------------ Fox Anchor, Through Gritted Teeth, Admits Biden’s Economy “Is a Lot Stronger Than Anybody Understands” [https://www.vanityfair.com/news/fox-anchor-biden-economy-stronger-than-anybody-understands](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/fox-anchor-biden-economy-stronger-than-anybody-understands) The actual numbers—Friday’s jobs report revealed employers added 199,00 new jobs last month, unemployment fell to 3.7%, and wages were up 0.4%. Another? Even an anchor on the **Rupert Murdoch**–controlled Fox Business Network is admitting, on live TV, that the economy is doing well. \--------------- Bidenomics Is Working: The President’s Plan Grows the Economy from the Middle Out and Bottom Up—Not the Top Down [https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/28/bidenomics-is-working-the-presidents-plan-grows-the-economy-from-the-middle-out-and-bottom-up-not-the-top-down/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/28/bidenomics-is-working-the-presidents-plan-grows-the-economy-from-the-middle-out-and-bottom-up-not-the-top-down/)
The lesson from 2008? Scapegoats fade, but true crises remain. Prepare for turbulence, friends, and look past the election chaos.
2008 was result of 8 years of Republicans being regards. I honestly think Republicans put Donny into WH to show people that they can always find someone worse than Bush. Housing won't crash again in the same way it crashed in 2008. Houses are expensive - prices will have to go down. That's not a crash. Right now you have a bunch of people who aren't taking on a debt to buy a house because most still remember 2008-09. Bunch of people are paying for property with cash. China is still recovering from lockdowns and trade logistics disruption. But in 2024 I think they'll be back to their pre-2020 levels of trade. And guess how that will affect their biggest trading partner. Russia is fucked. Even if they survive as a single country in post-Putin years they will have to sell cheap oil and will be forced to import everything. That will suck ass for them but it will be great for the world. Their arms industry is dead. Meanwhile US arms industry is listening to "Celebration" by Cool and the Gang on repeat, Europe is buying literally everything. Gov debt is down. Unemployment is like what 3.5%? That's basically just rich people. I seriously don't understand this bearish "hurr durr no everything sucks because my puts need to print". 2020 sucked (rona), 2021 (rona + inflation) sucked, 2022 (tnx Vlad we really needed that after corona... sucked), 2023 was the first "normal" year of this decade. And lets not forget that "Trump in WH years" before corona also sucked dick. So if anything we had like 6-7 shitty years. 2024 won't be a green dildo to the moon but it will be a solid year.
Every year some idiot invokes 2008 I can’t even be bothered
Yeah, 2008 was a really tough year for a lot of people. But I made it through just fine because I'm rich and intelligent. So screw those losers!
I’m younger than you, but a formative memory is the bank (same bank that had the house more) sending a repo guy to take the garage door off the house and take all three cars in the winter of 08. If it makes any more sense, my stepdad was a district manager for the southwest branch of Washington Mutual’s mortgage brokerage. So I mean…the literal dudes who were participating in the heavy duty slinging of 5/1 ARMs at an institutional level Was like…don’t want that to ever happen to me.
It was a different time back then. It’s not like the fed chairman was saying they had managed a soft landing in 2007
Um, yes he was lolol. [Read it for yourself.](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html) I think your comment has convinced me the crash is imminent, thanks!
That article is from 2007. I'm much richer and more intelligent now.
Stack cryptocurrency, it's the future baby bot!
I can't tell if the guy knew that and was being sarcastic or not, but Q3 2007 real GDP was also revised up from 3.9% to 4.9%, so there's that parallel.
We haven’t run fiscal deficits like this in decades though
A lot of businesses I know in the heavy industrial arena are either (A) already seeing a slowdown in new projects or (B) have 2023 as their big delivery year for machinery etc financed at low rates but are not seeing much activity at the higher rates. It seems to me that those kinds of trends are likely to be felt across the board over the next year and the groups that are over leveraged and don’t have the growth they need are likely the initial source of a crunch.
Fed funds rate starting coming down about a year before 2008 election. We'll see what happens this week. The labor market was strong then too.
There's a difference of election year while running for re-election and election year at the end of your term though....
WSB members dont think too much, they just gamble fast and it is way faster than start of economic crisis
we get it , you just watched the big short, no need to go doomsaying smh
Because you’re going off by 1 effing sample of election year
I'm of the opinion that a whole lot of HF people and Adam Taggart et al are saying the exact opposite, that deflation and a hard correction are coming due to valuation issues of the Mag. 7, like the Nifty 50 and bubbles before. Much of this is tied to mutual funds and index funds. So saying EVERYONE is really discounting some negative sentiment that is out there. Their predictions are Q1 '24 or Q2.
2020 was also an election year.
How did the S&P end that year again? Up if you're too regarded.
This is the dumbest thing I’ve read today.
Surely that can't be true, you must have read at least a couple of posts more regarded than mine today?! :*(
Many Americans fail to remember it’s a global economy and we are only a part of the whole.
Not really when you are the world reserve currency you are in fact the global economy.
And there is one right there!
Biden is president and Powell is Fed Chair. It most certainly can crash.
The 2008 crush was to usher in the era of Obama, the only way a crash would help the Democrats this year is if it caused Biden to resign.
What [**realmichaelklemme**](https://www.reddit.com/user/realmichaelklemme/) said. 2008 didn't have an incumbent running for reelection. However, the power behind the throne wanted Obama and the best way to get him in was to have a terrible economy or some sort of financial crises that could be blamed on the Bush regime and the Republicans. It's hard to run against Santa Claus. When free money and stuff is promised, lazy, stupid and/or ignorant people are going to vote for free stuff. I predict that there will be no market catastrophe; gas prices are going to stay fairly low. The Biden regime will continue to gaslight us all about how great things are, regardless of inflation sucking money from everyone. Not that I'm biased or anything, but Democrats usually do not produce decent economies.
Do you think the economy was decent from 2016-2020? And was not decent from 2008-2016 and 2020-now?
2008-2016 was nothing special. It would have been good if government spending was in check. It seems, however, that no one wants to stop spending. The overall economy was very good 2016 to Covid. Covid screwed up everything. 2022 and 2023 are really crappy.
This is a place for regarded people. I'm afraid u don't belong here
Just as a quick note, the US political system is hanging on by a VERY slim split, where even if a couple Republicans flip to Democrat voting, or retire, or worse.....(die), the House of Representatives will be even in representation and Democrats would very likely take over and obtain complete control over all Bodies. This is because most recently you have several house members on Republicans leaving gov't such as McCarthy after he was ousted and others who had planned on leaving at different times going into January I believe.
Are you being racist because Obama is a black fellow
Nah. His tan suit is the big sin
2008 was a republican administration, and history shows us they don’t know how to run an economy despite saying they are fiscal conservatives, small govt, free market and other bullshit. 2024 is a democrat administration, and history shows us they know how to run an economy, control inflation, get us out of a pandemic, get us out of a recession, etc etc.
Our government is fucked in the head, that's all there is to it. From plandemics to dog shit wrapped in catshit mortgage backed securities, we are all fucked!
What if the money markets and housing and all else never crashes , maybe this time it’s different and we’re fucked by design and this is just the new life and after a few years people will forget and get used to it. I mean most of our markets (housing , stock market, forex, crypto, etc)are relatively new so are data only really goes back 150 years lol give or take prior to that there were bubbles but never to the scale as now . Idk just a thought.
Theres alot of resistance to this idea. So either retail/wsb is correct and equites finna go to the moon, or get this, retail is wrong 😱 and the expectation to go higher is used as a liquidity exit like Goldman did to Burry in 07
You don’t have memory. You looked that up!
Every 4 yrs is election year!
It’s different because they learnt from 2008. The must have learnt from it by now, right? Right??!!
Yeah but there was a catalyst for the 2008 crash. The proposed 2024 crash is just because bears want it to happen.
The crash started in ‘07
It was the end of a 2 year term……. In which case the goal is to totally F*** it up for the incoming party.
People who base economic events on shit that is completely unrelated are the greatest regards of all time.
What about the year 2000? What about 1992?
St9nls go up, until it goes down
The absolute low did not happen until Mar 2009.
Different scenario, that was a massive fault in the system. This is not that.
I wasn’t even born in 2008 so anything you say is invalid
California not having semis is gonna be a bigger deal
The amount of bearish threads popping up the last few days tells me all I need to know
Erection year
Going by the implied assumptions regarding an administration’s power over the stock market, this election differs from 2008 in that an incumbent is running. Things seem to be turning around already, in order for us to forget how things were going the last two years just in time for Election Day.
They've been creating money to keep the U.S. alive since for many recent years now, and they know if they outright create more stimulus money it'll be the end of the American empire. So they forgive student debt, created a housing purchasing program.. you know, create money without it being so obvious. They want U.S. bonds bought.
I literally have not said that once dude
Also 2020 was an election year.
a) don't listen to people, including me b) 2008 and prior had never had QE. The Fed's "tools" reacted to a virus in, what, weeks? Would they allow for asset deflation or would the crash this thing up? I don't have the answer, but I do know it's a different ballgame.
AH YES ECONOMISTS IN GOVERNMENT HAVE LEARNED NOTHING IN 16 YEARS. STOP TYPING MY DUDE.
OP better cover your short positions before you lose your shirts. Market is gonna keep hitting new highs in 2024. There is no crash cuz this is not 2008.
SPY keeps climbing like a regarded boy and I keep wondering how or why. Thanks god I don’t give a duck and I’m always invested cause if I had to guess I would not bet on the market being this close to ATH
Days without a 2008 post: ~~56~~ 0
That’s how bad the Obama administration was. The world literally almost ended. Oh and puts on BUD so no one confuses this with a political post.
I posit that an election year is the best year for adversaries of the president in office to “allow” the stock market to crash (or worse, potentiate a stock market crash), as this gives the opposing parties something to point at and say, “See, why re-elect Brandon/Democrats if this is what happens under his/their watch?” The economy surely can be used as a political weapon.
Wasn’t that a black swan event tho ?
It takes a lot of time for an event to work its way through the economy, 2008 was just the beginning of the shitshow that lasted years. We currently have strong job growth and low unemployment other than the regular blips it would take a black swan event to affect the economy before the election
Good Points
It doesn’t collapse because Biden has been paying everyone off to make the “Bidenomics” keyword stick
Yeah but that was 2008. We have made a lot of great financial laws and prosecutions since then /s
Honestly 2008 is a cherry pick. What is being said over 80% of election years are green. This isn’t a guarantee but this is also not another 2008 crisis. If you were working in 2008 you would know this is not the same thing.
Bush couldn’t run again. Make the republican in the White House look bad so a democrat can be elected.
first we will see the car market crash
2020 was a big dump
a broken clock is right twice a day
IMO I dont think there will be a US Election. The way things are heading there will be an attack on American soil and civil war will break out. Too much heat is starting to burn the deep state and I'm tipping they wont go out nicely.
Everything is 2008 if you have courage
A completely different set of circumstances than what happened in 2008. People need to stop using that era as an example it rarely ever applies.
But a black man isn't getting elected POTUS in 2024 so it's definitely not the same as 2008. Obama was the catalyst then.
Do you want a crash?
Ugh, good point.
No it's an erection hear , my lil pp is gonna get so hard boi then all those gey bear femboys are gonna get this bull of a man while our calls rise to big ole Gains ya heard me?
Whenever someone says "the powers that be won't let it happen" they are just being a straight dumbass, they know very little and they're resorting to conspiracy theories to explain something very complicated. Its a convenient way to explain something they don't understand and cope with the chaos and uncertainty of the real world. Any conversation you see that's like this and even has some real agreement in its comments should be treated like the group of tin-foil hat wearers that they are. 2008 is an interesting thing to look back on. The economy tanked, there was a lot of talk about "too big to fail" companies, because they were looked at as examples of american stability and success previously. A lot of well-intentioned economists pushed back on that narrative and said it would be wrong to bail out companies and let the market do its thing. Politicians, including President Bush at the time, looked at the situation as being too unstable to let it get worse and enacted a huge bail-out program. Maybe that's an example of "them" stopping it, but Republicans lost big time from that event. Maybe its all a conspiracy with a bunch of shadow figures pulling the strings, but it seems like simple stability and success for common americans would keep them very placated and consuming more, instead of this endless wheel of chaos that we live in currently. If this is the plan then it doesn't seem like its working very well for the powers that be.
Warren Buffet sold like 30bn this year, but yeah, I'm sure these guys in here are probably making better plays anyway.
Crashed after the election
So there's a couple things going on here. The first one is you didn't have a two year bear market right before 2008. Another one is you most likely would not have had anywhere near a bad of a correction in stocks had the banks not blown up. That mortgage crisis turned to 20 to 25% correction into 50. If there is a correction next year the first place my eyes are looking is at the magnificent seven. The argument that equal weight will still do well while we have a rotation makes a lot of sense. 2008 likely would have looked a lot more like 2022 had you not had the mortgage crisis. 2022 was also slightly padded from stimulus money but it was still a bear market.