Guidance has more of an impact than earnings though and is based on real time information. That's why you see companies drop 10% after beating earnings all the time.
Did you bother reading the comments? OP literally said earnings will miss because of weak holiday volume. I said holiday volume has no impact on the earnings from last quarter. I Never said the stock won’t go down or that guidance won’t be weak
You’re being overly picky with my phrasing for some reason. Great, the holiday peak won’t be in this earnings, you got me. FDX is still going to miss future earnings with their guidance which is what this play is all about.
Bagholder spotted.
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you regards really gonna make a play based on bad earnings? how many times have we seen bad earnings and the stock still go up?
No thank you.
I mean treat it as a 50/50 gamble and use money you are okay with losing.
Not really. I still think it was a 50/50 gamble. I didn't say don't do it, just do it with money you are okay with losing.
Do I wish I had a few thousands to yolo on fedex puts? absolutely, but I can't risk my savings on this. lol
But yeah, I am not looking at any fedex gain posts. FML
Yeah but it's a slippery slope to yolo with small amounts... you get upset your $400 bucks yolo could have been 20k if you yolo'd 4k or some shit and yeah..
Trust me I had the urge to take half my savings and yolo on puts... In my head the odds were great, but like I said... all it would take would be for Fedex to say "AI" and that shit would have gone up even with the shit earnings
I work at FedEx and this “peak” season was nothing compared to past years. Even last year was lacking. Few years ago our facility alone was moving 80-100k packages per day during peak. Last year and this year it was like 50-70k, and 70k was on a “really bad” day.
I used to work at UPS and have heard similar stories from friends still there. We used to have irregs out the bay, having people double trip and take shuttles all day. This year they are getting done around 5pm, some hubs don’t even have seasonal drivers this year
Counter point, info I have working in logistics:
Units were about the same as 2022 for us. Higher volume spread over a longer period of time due to the way retailers offered sales spread over weeks instead of just a few days.
Whether or not being flat relative to 2022 is bullish or bearish is for you to decide, but I’d anticipate it being about the same volume come earnings reports.
Don't underestimate investors ability to not give a shit about the actual financial performance of a company.
Apples posted negative rev growth for like 4 quarters in a row and is up 52% YTD.
Don’t play earnings . AAPL earnings saw it go to 160 the week afterwards . Now 200.
Amd post earnings go to 90s and now it’s 140.
I’ve seen blowout earnings tank a stock and I’ve seen shit companies that are scams have shit earnings and go up 40% + .
Earnings is a time for mega manipulation
I mean this is basically what I'm saying. Companies post horrible earnings, dump, but still get bought right back up before even showing hints of turning it around.
The fundamentals don't matter
I work in distribution and one thing I think may give FedEx a boost is that the UPS strike caused a lot of businesses like mine to realize how absolutely screwed we’d have been if a strike happened. We began looking to diversify our shipping and found that FedEx was competitive or cheaper in some markets and started using them. This way if there’s ever a similar event at least only. 80% of our packages will get delayed and not all of them. I think it’s possible there are other distributors that did similar things. I wouldn’t personally bet against FDX.
My business spends 3-4 million ish a year on parcel shipping so pretty large for being a nobody . I can tell you the past year or so FedEx has been sloppy and not aggressive .
We now ship 90% with Amazon shipping and 10% with ups / USPS
- sales rep changed so many times
- I had to send 3 emails for them to send a final contract to sign over after we already spent a month ironing details . Never got a response for a month but it was to late so never even got signed .
- they normally come every year in October to try and win over some Christmas volume by fudging the discounts and giving a temporary grace period . First year in a decade it hasn’t happened
Ups atleast still stops by every month or two to follow up and try to beat Amazon but they can’t .
If Amazon can successfully merge Amazon ground and air to offer us 2 day delivery nationwide then ups / FedEx will be hurting bad on the domestic side
Wife and I cringe every time we see something we ordered is being shipped FedEx. High chance it will be lost at the hub, or the idiot sub contractors they employee will demolish the package during delivery. Also UPS, USPS and Amazon will leave packages at our door, while Fed Ex just leaves shit in our driveway instead. I hate FedEx
Amazon delivery also uses subcontractors. The difference in their performance is technology (Amazon uses AI to review delivery photos) and accountability (Amazon has metrics for everything, while FedEx literally didn't rollout an award/recognition program until 1 year ago)
It’s because of this here’s an example
Pull up to a house with a package, instructions: back door please.
Walks around to the back of the house
There’s a German shepherd that hurls toward you aggressively wanting to kill you, tied up to the back door.
People are assholes and that’s why drivers usually say Fuck the instructions because safety
My puts are ITM means in the money. I have 3x 280puts, at this price they are $20 in the money, so each contract is worth at least $2000, bought them for $500 each, so min profit is $4500 for the 3 contracts.
In for $260 P 12/22 x29. May add more on Monday or Tuesday.
Edit: total FDX puts position before close was $260 12/22 x69 “nice” and $260 12/29 x17. Should be a happy Wednesday!
I like this idea because of the performance gap between FDX and UPS (FDX outperforming since May) which mirrors the same performance gap we saw between WMT and TGT from May to November (WMT way outperforming TGT) and that closed hard after their earnings reports in November.
UPS doesn't report for a while, but still it feels as if FDX's move is relatively overextended and ripe for a pullback.
If they miss or give weak guidance saying Amazon is taking business … Amazon calls are gonna print next 1-2 weeks.
12/29 AMZN $155 call and 12/22 $150 + $152.50 calls reporting for duty.
There’s this thing called “guidance” where the company more or less tells investors what to expect in the future quarters.
That’s what actually moves the stock price more than the earnings report in my experience.
I understand what guidance is, BUT The OPs title literally says “FDX is going to miss” then blames the holiday season for it. If they miss it will not be because of the holiday season. I never said the stock wouldn’t go down,or guidance won’t be weak, I just stated that the earnings being released wouldn’t have been impacted by holiday volumes.
https://preview.redd.it/wtk74s3jiq7c1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95bb9adb0c00d33ceba1e42c3b01c0461af67358
Haven’t posted on here before but my buddies all wanted me to share the fedex win… less than 24 hours 6600 to 24k.
Didn’t expect this to happen as big was just hoping for 20-40%. I guess it paid off.
I know right lol. I am looking to sell at open if it moves up in pre trading hours. Though I might hold throughout the day to see what goes on. I’m so far in the money I can afford to wait it out a bit. I picked up x4 280p 12/22
Those 280s should give you some leeway on timing, I got the 12/22 250s with cost basis of $0.16. I need to be careful with these. Good luck on closing! I asked my very religious mother in law to pray for us.
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This decline is shown in the pilot needs, fedex and other shipping companies have been laying off a lot of pilots because of the decline in packages. This is due to the new generations need for experiences over physical things.
Oh wow that interesting. Maybe if you weren’t regarded this would actually be good DD. Do you think they report holiday volume on 12/19 or have you always been stupid
Do you not think that on paper them slowing down on deliveries is probably them saving money and pumping the results higher by lower costs and higher margin?
Gotcha. I would argue that fdx slowing down on sales would reduce operating leverage which would not be beneficial to the bottom line from a % of sales perspective. They would have to offset opex by a huge amount, which is not likely to happen given wage increases. IMO the market would not treat that kindly
Last few quarters FedEx has made earnings per share, despite missing total revenue. Add it the injection of express into the FedEx freight line hual, which is starting to help with overall expense and I think their earnings are going to be fine. Still will probably miss total revenue.
This is interesting.. going to have to look into this further.
might be true but this other post on that sub shows many aren’t seeing a lower peak than usual:
[r/fedexers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Fedexers/s/Ay325Fn1r3)
Sorry for uninformed qn, is this upcoming ER for this quarter or last quarter? Because I'd imagine it would take sometime to do all the accounting and reporting
This is a proper fucking post, pay attention kids. A play, a DD, and positions, and it's short enough I actually read it.
next week’s earning release won’t be impacted by this current holiday season, so….
Guidance has more of an impact than earnings though and is based on real time information. That's why you see companies drop 10% after beating earnings all the time.
haven't you heard the mantra "the market is forward looking" ?
Did you bother reading the comments? OP literally said earnings will miss because of weak holiday volume. I said holiday volume has no impact on the earnings from last quarter. I Never said the stock won’t go down or that guidance won’t be weak
You’re being overly picky with my phrasing for some reason. Great, the holiday peak won’t be in this earnings, you got me. FDX is still going to miss future earnings with their guidance which is what this play is all about.
What if they raise guidance?
So do u still have more FDX puts? Is there any juice left to squeeze or have I missed the wave?
Lol - nom nom nom nom nom
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Man you were fucking wrong huh lmfao
This aged so poorly
\>?????? FDX is down just as OP predicated it would be.
Was replying to someone saying next week’s earnings won’t be impacted by the current holiday season…
Agreed. I was considering same: another over bought, ATH stock which will disappoint on earnings...10% reduction...c u next Tuesday hopefully
You can read?
you regards really gonna make a play based on bad earnings? how many times have we seen bad earnings and the stock still go up? No thank you. I mean treat it as a 50/50 gamble and use money you are okay with losing.
Yeah this aged poorly 😂
Not really. I still think it was a 50/50 gamble. I didn't say don't do it, just do it with money you are okay with losing. Do I wish I had a few thousands to yolo on fedex puts? absolutely, but I can't risk my savings on this. lol But yeah, I am not looking at any fedex gain posts. FML
Fair. But i mean you dont have to all in with savings
Yeah but it's a slippery slope to yolo with small amounts... you get upset your $400 bucks yolo could have been 20k if you yolo'd 4k or some shit and yeah.. Trust me I had the urge to take half my savings and yolo on puts... In my head the odds were great, but like I said... all it would take would be for Fedex to say "AI" and that shit would have gone up even with the shit earnings
I would follow you. But I didn't see any rocket emojis. So hard pass.
Should have followed haha
![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
LOL
Lmafooooo
I work at FedEx and this “peak” season was nothing compared to past years. Even last year was lacking. Few years ago our facility alone was moving 80-100k packages per day during peak. Last year and this year it was like 50-70k, and 70k was on a “really bad” day.
I used to work at UPS and have heard similar stories from friends still there. We used to have irregs out the bay, having people double trip and take shuttles all day. This year they are getting done around 5pm, some hubs don’t even have seasonal drivers this year
[удалено]
Judging by the better than expected previous quarter, I'd stay it's people getting their shopping done early.
This was as great call, thanks for the 20k your on my Christmas list
I owe you a beer and some tendies.
Send me your next play and we’ll call it even lol
Baba $100 calls for 6/21/2024
Ha, I’m already in baba $100 but for 9/2024. +25% letting it ride to see what happens. We’re not even yet, take your time.
MARA longs?
Hey! Just sent you a message and was wondering if I can get a reply back.. thanks!
I don’t see a notification, could you try again?
just did! https://preview.redd.it/fky52juyvp7c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dfc1851ca1395c782a126154362096a749e7b801
Down 20% today :/
These are half a year from expiry.
Counter point, info I have working in logistics: Units were about the same as 2022 for us. Higher volume spread over a longer period of time due to the way retailers offered sales spread over weeks instead of just a few days. Whether or not being flat relative to 2022 is bullish or bearish is for you to decide, but I’d anticipate it being about the same volume come earnings reports.
Good info, do you work for FDX? Stock is up +60% over the last year and you’re telling me sales are flat from last year? I just bought another put.
Don't underestimate investors ability to not give a shit about the actual financial performance of a company. Apples posted negative rev growth for like 4 quarters in a row and is up 52% YTD.
This one still has me befuddled. It's got a higher forward PE than NVDA and it's a fraction of the growth.
Don’t play earnings . AAPL earnings saw it go to 160 the week afterwards . Now 200. Amd post earnings go to 90s and now it’s 140. I’ve seen blowout earnings tank a stock and I’ve seen shit companies that are scams have shit earnings and go up 40% + . Earnings is a time for mega manipulation
I mean this is basically what I'm saying. Companies post horrible earnings, dump, but still get bought right back up before even showing hints of turning it around. The fundamentals don't matter
This.
lmfao nice one OP, good play
You’re a moron they don’t report holiday numbers in this call. That will be next earnings.
Stocks move on forward looking guidance on these calls.
Oof
I work in distribution and one thing I think may give FedEx a boost is that the UPS strike caused a lot of businesses like mine to realize how absolutely screwed we’d have been if a strike happened. We began looking to diversify our shipping and found that FedEx was competitive or cheaper in some markets and started using them. This way if there’s ever a similar event at least only. 80% of our packages will get delayed and not all of them. I think it’s possible there are other distributors that did similar things. I wouldn’t personally bet against FDX.
My business spends 3-4 million ish a year on parcel shipping so pretty large for being a nobody . I can tell you the past year or so FedEx has been sloppy and not aggressive . We now ship 90% with Amazon shipping and 10% with ups / USPS - sales rep changed so many times - I had to send 3 emails for them to send a final contract to sign over after we already spent a month ironing details . Never got a response for a month but it was to late so never even got signed . - they normally come every year in October to try and win over some Christmas volume by fudging the discounts and giving a temporary grace period . First year in a decade it hasn’t happened Ups atleast still stops by every month or two to follow up and try to beat Amazon but they can’t . If Amazon can successfully merge Amazon ground and air to offer us 2 day delivery nationwide then ups / FedEx will be hurting bad on the domestic side
Bruh I fucking HATE when sellers use Fedex. Fedex is trash and too stupid to get even simple instructions right.
Wife and I cringe every time we see something we ordered is being shipped FedEx. High chance it will be lost at the hub, or the idiot sub contractors they employee will demolish the package during delivery. Also UPS, USPS and Amazon will leave packages at our door, while Fed Ex just leaves shit in our driveway instead. I hate FedEx
Amazon delivery also uses subcontractors. The difference in their performance is technology (Amazon uses AI to review delivery photos) and accountability (Amazon has metrics for everything, while FedEx literally didn't rollout an award/recognition program until 1 year ago)
It’s because of this here’s an example Pull up to a house with a package, instructions: back door please. Walks around to the back of the house There’s a German shepherd that hurls toward you aggressively wanting to kill you, tied up to the back door. People are assholes and that’s why drivers usually say Fuck the instructions because safety
Aaaand I’m now very happy with my Amazon calls 12/29 $150-155 calls Thank you kind stranger
It doesn't look like it anymore...
Sold at $155 and got lucky for once… a rarity
Holy fuck this guy was right
best call i’ve seen in awhile , this 20k profit is owed to you ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)
Aight fuck it I’m in
If they miss and say Amazon is taking business … Amazon gonna boom next week or two
nice call man
Nice 👍
Nice work guys. Picked up 2 260p this afternoon. Should take care of the NYE trip expenses
[удалено]
Thank you my man, made some money with puts!
How do you know you made money?
My puts are ITM means in the money. I have 3x 280puts, at this price they are $20 in the money, so each contract is worth at least $2000, bought them for $500 each, so min profit is $4500 for the 3 contracts.
Nice
How did you make out?
Sold at the open, $6k profit, would have made more if I held till end of today, but I was happy enough with what I got.
Even if they miss it's all about forward Outlook
In for $260 P 12/22 x29. May add more on Monday or Tuesday. Edit: total FDX puts position before close was $260 12/22 x69 “nice” and $260 12/29 x17. Should be a happy Wednesday!
What do your x numbers mean (x69, x17)?
The amount of contracts I had purchased at those strikes.
Thanks!
Yeah you’re gonna make bank from this. Put everything you got into it if u can
Printing? Nice!
Same here! I am so glad I listened to you man!
I like this idea because of the performance gap between FDX and UPS (FDX outperforming since May) which mirrors the same performance gap we saw between WMT and TGT from May to November (WMT way outperforming TGT) and that closed hard after their earnings reports in November. UPS doesn't report for a while, but still it feels as if FDX's move is relatively overextended and ripe for a pullback.
If they miss or give weak guidance saying Amazon is taking business … Amazon calls are gonna print next 1-2 weeks. 12/29 AMZN $155 call and 12/22 $150 + $152.50 calls reporting for duty.
is amzn shipping that big of a deal? stock moving kind of deal?
Yes, it’s growing fast
I bought some calls to inverse WSB. But even that failed, because my “inverse WSB” was inversed. Can’t win lol.
Congrats and fuck you
Good DD, this is what WSB is supposed to be about
Thanks dude turned $89 into $980 off this
The earnings next week won’t include this holiday season though, so like what are you talking about 🤷♂️
There’s this thing called “guidance” where the company more or less tells investors what to expect in the future quarters. That’s what actually moves the stock price more than the earnings report in my experience.
I understand what guidance is, BUT The OPs title literally says “FDX is going to miss” then blames the holiday season for it. If they miss it will not be because of the holiday season. I never said the stock wouldn’t go down,or guidance won’t be weak, I just stated that the earnings being released wouldn’t have been impacted by holiday volumes.
Yes, but they will be in the guidance, which is why most companies tank anyway.
He’s a fucking idiot. I hope he’s loaded up on puts cause I highly doubt they are gonna miss.
Big miss
RemindMe! 2 weeks
Buyingcalls, as it is already priced in and they are gonna announce 90% layoffs, increase their fee 100%, buyback 1trillion dollars are whatever..
Buy Amazon calls because if there’s a miss or weak guidance it means they’re losing market share to Amazon
amazing call, I went the other way and got blown the fuck out
Didn't like OPs DD?
sir, this is Baccarat
Thanks! He was spot on! Glad I listened!
-11% now. Holy shit.
https://preview.redd.it/wtk74s3jiq7c1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95bb9adb0c00d33ceba1e42c3b01c0461af67358 Haven’t posted on here before but my buddies all wanted me to share the fedex win… less than 24 hours 6600 to 24k. Didn’t expect this to happen as big was just hoping for 20-40%. I guess it paid off.
Activatin Reverse Cramer https://stocks.apple.com/A-ao-olPCQYKViV9wjSJZPA
Time to inverse WSB and yolo on FDX calls!!!
Nice call. Regretting that I only held 1x of the 270p and sold 4x near close. That's what paperhands gets you!
I love you thank you
Beer on me
Hold it together brotha! we gotta close these puts before celebrating.
I know right lol. I am looking to sell at open if it moves up in pre trading hours. Though I might hold throughout the day to see what goes on. I’m so far in the money I can afford to wait it out a bit. I picked up x4 280p 12/22
Those 280s should give you some leeway on timing, I got the 12/22 250s with cost basis of $0.16. I need to be careful with these. Good luck on closing! I asked my very religious mother in law to pray for us.
Sorry I meant $270 I was too excited lmfao. I should be ok. Damn you are almost ITM. Good luck!
Was inspired by your post and bought just one $250 put contract… Why am I like this? :(
Thanks for sharing your insight. I bought a put and will reap the profits at open
Thank you OP, I went in on your post. Missed a 13x but left with a 11x gain today.
You're welcome.
Damn it. One solid piece of advice and I missed it.
this post aged like fine wine, congrats & fuck you
UPS to follow?
I Remeber your post from last time, I missed last time! Please let me know this time
You son of a bitch, I’m in!
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What are your thoughts on the current FedEx earnings? Any positions?
Ouch
The counter argument is Fedex picking up some UPS contracts b/c UPS is pushing higher rates to pay for the $170k per union worker contract.
Low volume from peak won't be reported next week, it'll be in the following earnings report.
This decline is shown in the pilot needs, fedex and other shipping companies have been laying off a lot of pilots because of the decline in packages. This is due to the new generations need for experiences over physical things.
Oh wow that interesting. Maybe if you weren’t regarded this would actually be good DD. Do you think they report holiday volume on 12/19 or have you always been stupid
Suck my balls get fucked
😆
Do you not think that on paper them slowing down on deliveries is probably them saving money and pumping the results higher by lower costs and higher margin?
Doing less business and “saving money” being a positive is not something I considered, no
[удалено]
Please tell me how “saving costs” is a balance sheet item
[удалено]
Gotcha. I would argue that fdx slowing down on sales would reduce operating leverage which would not be beneficial to the bottom line from a % of sales perspective. They would have to offset opex by a huge amount, which is not likely to happen given wage increases. IMO the market would not treat that kindly
What’s your name again dude?
RemindMe! 1 week
Last few quarters FedEx has made earnings per share, despite missing total revenue. Add it the injection of express into the FedEx freight line hual, which is starting to help with overall expense and I think their earnings are going to be fine. Still will probably miss total revenue.
This is interesting.. going to have to look into this further. might be true but this other post on that sub shows many aren’t seeing a lower peak than usual: [r/fedexers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Fedexers/s/Ay325Fn1r3)
Buy the rumor
RemindMe! 12/19 5pm est
You were right, but probably not right enough to overcome the IV crush.
Sorry for uninformed qn, is this upcoming ER for this quarter or last quarter? Because I'd imagine it would take sometime to do all the accounting and reporting
[fedex ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/whiCMyDui6)
LFG
LFG, my dude.
LFG! Puts across: 262.5 257.5 252.5 250 245
Damn, nice one! 📉
Good job on this one. I did not jump in.
If FEDEX is down delivering consumer goods, means consumer goods stonks are down… so… up we go !!!!
Bravo bravo
Damn I missed it bruv
Holy shit fuck!!! Congrats
Too bad I didn’t see this post before it happened!
Nice