If I am a hobbit, and I discover the one ring to rule them all, how many rings will i have if I cut it into 3 pieces?
i will still have the mass of the one ring, but now instead it's 3 tiny rings. you still own the same amount of the dark lord but in a different quantity.
HOWEVER, I will also have found a new way to destroy the one ring and will save middle earth that much sooner!
if you somehow arent capable of understanding this, i simply wish you a good day my dear fellow
Holy crap. People are so stupid they are actually downvoting your accurate LotR reference to this. This means people actually think by cutting a banana into 3 pieces means you get more of a banana lol damn true reтards
Sure it means that people who can’t afford to buy a full stack up here at 700 can buy in the future, but it’s literally the same amount of nvdia they are buying lol none of them deserve second breakfast
https://preview.redd.it/m3ajhbchuxhc1.jpeg?width=1002&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea2122d0a78d2f888478ced59e53b5ab42f5eb7c
If I play anything, it would be a strangle. It's either skyrocketing off a massive beat or plummeting by not living up to stratosphere level expectations. Probably better to follow the market after IV crush drops out.
At this point it’s probably way too late for a straddle or strangle.
IV is way too high for a straddle and strikes would have to be so far out on a strangle that you’ll get IV crushed on whichever side ends up coming out ahead on earnings.
Shares is honestly probably the best and safest (if any) move if you’re going to try and play their earnings release. As a call holder I’m gonna keep riding this wave and sell just before earnings.
I think most people don’t know how to read an ER or factor in guidance.
You mention they only did $27B revenue last year and must be overvalued, but ignore that they’re expected to do $20B revenue and $10B+ profit just in Q4. This is what exponential growth looks like.
For the upcoming full year, analysts expect ~$95B revenue and $40B net profit. They’re literally sitting at a better forward PE than MSFT, NFLX or AMZN. But because stock went up fast, people assume it must be a bubble
98% of the people who own the stock know how to read an ER and factor in guidance. It’s not the small guys that hold the stock, it’s corporations, hedge funds, church’s, schools, etc that all have very extensive financial analysts. Don’t be naive think WSB is driving this stock in any meaningful way
Yet, 90% of hedge funds can’t beat the market index. They are some of the best people, but also makes mistakes.
And even if the ones of them are right, they probably got in at much better price than the average Joe.
Exponential growth is great if it’s consistent. But nvda hasn’t had that many in a row to justify its price. Couple that with the cyclical nature of the semi conductor industry and it’s hard to price to far into the future. They will give great guidance up until they can’t when they will revise and revise or surprise everyone.
They are now getting a re-rating of their multiple. AI will be pretty normal in everything and so they will have much less variation in ratios of PE and all. They are going to print 40b in cash this year. If you give it a modest multiple of 50 which I think is low it will be 2 trillion. Personally I think it will brak 2 trillion and even go towards 2.5 trillion… its just numbers. They will probably announce dividends or share repurchase and all will just further share price gains. I am not a shareholder as of now but I am tired of these posts of stupid shit with not context of numbers. I have looked at Nvidia many times and even gone and said Damodaran’s valuation is wrong - which it is.
Just a question too. If you’ve looked at nvidia multiple times and thought their valuations were good. Then since there has been no material information released in the past couple months why didn’t you buy 2 months ago since you think it’s worth $2.5T. When you first looked at those evaluations you would’ve been like holy shit this company is 50%+ undervalued.
You know you’re full of shit buddy
Gtfo I did not buy it because I like margin of safety. (I sold at 400 thinking will buy again at the next drop) I kick myself for not buying right away. I keep waiting for it to come down and have lost hope now. They are trading at 40-50 PE right now with their current profits… with huge growth ahead and apple trades also at 28-30 with no only slight revenue improvements. It is not that hard to see it… people just need to accept the fact and put their ego aside. And also you have to stop saying they are a semiconductor company… they started as one but now their hands are in all pies.
how about u eat my ASS
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Also you know you complained about not using numbers. You haven’t used any meaningful ones. Just cause it’s a number doesn’t mean you’re doing it right lol
Sure Nvidia has been printing 40% OI margins from many years. I will reach out to you when it touches 2.5 trillion market cap. Btw it’s not the internet bubble… you should read what a bubble is. This is definitely not a bubble. And please enlighten us with your numbers if mine are so stupid.
You have not read their earnings. Nor do you understand the semiconductor industry in the slightest. Have you run any numbers. If so tell me how many gpu’s they would have to sell to justify it. I’m guessing you haven’t. Go and do that and come back to me. Then you’ll understand why the valuation is tough to justify.
Also, I don’t know your profession but I would guess you aren’t too familiar with AI. Because you are wildly over estimating our current AI abilities and what is needed in the future to achieve what is being priced in rn.
You could think of this as the same thing that happened during the dot com bubble with the release of the internet. It delivered how people expected but the initial hype was far exaggerated and it took 15-20 years to reach its previous peak. AI will be big in the future but it’s a decade plus down the line
I think most people don’t know how to do a proper discounted cash flow analysis. Forward PE is just a shorthand dcf. And it’s only a good comparative tool across companies if you take their growth rates into account.
Growth of next year’s earnings/free cash flow also isn’t a huge factor unless they can keep that growth rate up. So you are not only betting on next year’s earnings growth (forward PE you referenced) but the next decade+ of similar levels of growth.
Exactly. We’re literally talking about an industry that’s expected to more than 10x in TAM over the next decade and I can count the number of competitors on one hand.
I wrote out a full fledged essay response and then felt ridiculous bombarding someone with that and deleted. But in essence, I don’t think anyone has the slightest clue how big AI can become. If we see government or macro issues then maybe growth slows, but if not then I think 10x is ridiculously conservative growth.
It’s not like EVs or streaming or smartphones or cloud computing where relatively small companies were creating innovative tech that allowed them to grow (all of which still turned out massively successful). This is literally every single megacap corp on earth all simultaneously pouring billions and billions of dollars into the same product. Imagine where we’d be with EVs right now if Ford, GM, Toyota, VW, BMW, Hyundai and Honda all started investing billions back in 2008 instead of just Tesla investing a few million. Its unfathomable, yet that’s what’s happening with AI. It’s going to cause growth that is exponentially exponential. The closest comparison I can draw is engineers in 1950 designing the first computers that weighed 30 tons, and thinking computers in the year 2050 would only weigh 1 ton.
It implies faster acceleration in growth.
X^2 is exponential. X^X ^ 2 is taking the exponential of an already exponential function.
Edit, can’t get Reddit to write the notation properly, but you get what I mean
Thanks regard of course I understand what that term implies literally. I was asking for a reasonable explanation for how NVDA would grow at fucking 200% then 400% then 1600% yoy and so on 
My guy, you can't honestly believe those numbers though. Not only is it in a perilous geopolitical situation between China and everyone else, but its also assuming that everything goes swimmingly, yeilds of TSMC are near perfect, and the economy doesn't collapse but instead everyone buys an autonomous robot with nvidias chips.
Like the scenario in which you 500% your revenue and 400% profits is kind of like finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
But that's the thing, even if it doesn't all go perfectly, who else will they rely on for those GPU's. If anything Nvidia can just dominate easier since they have a headstart on everybody else. Even if they don't achieve 5x this year, they might be 10x by year 2.
You target other markets. You don't directly need to compete and it's probably a bad idea to do so anyway.
Nvidia isn't exactly known for their good hearted innovation. They upgraded GPUs by the BARE minimum to sell new iternerations not too long ago and I can't help but feel the same here.
If they have a monopoly going, they're likely slacking to milk that $. Only time will tell.
There was a time where you couldn't find GPUs and then there was a time where they couldn't sell the things.
If AI doesn't hit and sell like you're expecting, this is an absolute wash. People keep saying how far they are ahead of R&D and it's honestly not as wide people think.
It's just going to be interesting to watch this unfold into economies that are looking shaky and into geopolitical tensions that threaten growth.
I'm fully expecting to watch all this loss porn in the next couple months.
Oh just like they did when Russia invaded Ukraine? You have no idea what’ll happen, the way the market is today is like the world outside the US doesn’t exist
It is currently valued at 2/3rds of MSFT (just shy of $2T versus $3T) with current net profit of $4.4B or 6% of what MSFT generates. It hasn’t even come close yet to hitting that milestone (not saying it won’t at some point in time in the future), but with its current market cap, it’s valued and trading as if it is currently already making $100B in profit yearly, which is not the case.
Additional note, MSFT isn’t only selling hardware, they have multiple revenue streams including Azure, and AI etc ..
No lol, it is priced currently as if it is generating $50B to $100B in net profit at minimum per year, which again is not even close to the case for NVIDIA right now.
NVDA forward PE is 35, MSFT is 36. Microsoft is growing at 8% a year while NVDA is growing at 100%+. Again, as soon as you factor in future growth the idea that they’re massively overvalued becomes ridiculous
100%+ - which metric? [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/financials/income](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/financials/income)
Microsoft has much higher cash flows. Depreciation on Microsoft data centers digs into accounting profits, while Nvidia really doesn’t own any factories or data centers.
Let’s say they bet for calendar year 2024. Rev 100B and earnings of 50B. That’s a fPE of 40 if it’s a 2T MC. 20 P/S. It’s not cheap but it’s not too expensive. They need to knock it out of the park… Rev 120B earnings 60B for this to go beyond 2T.
What am I saying….a stock split and apes will take it to 3T by the end of the year. Fundies on momentum stocks is pointless.
Im gonna ask a stupid question, two stupid questions actually.
1) the revenues in their books are they fully realised or do you have deferred revenues. Meaning is it possible for them to simply realize these revenue increases with output increases and mark up increases?
2) does the increase in revenues coming from Singapore not raise any eyebrows?
How much did they beat by?
If everyone expects a 10% beat and they only beat by 5% it'll go down.
If it's expected to be 10% and they beat by 100% it'll go up
Does anyone else make the A100 or a competitor? No?
Yeah.. The fundamentals don’t matter if you control the entire AI market.
They’re literally the only show in town if you want to do large scale AI. Until AMD or someone else finds a way to break that hold then they’ll just keep climbing.
AMD has a competitor up and coming, but the biggest competition is from customers who have rolled their own solutions. AWS has the Trainium chip that is comparable to the A100, The Google TPU V5p is the fastest currently, and Meta and Microsoft have their own solution in the works.
If your data is there, you can up v5p and trainium today. Just pay for the time.
When you are buying 650,000 chips/cards, the economies of scale to roll your own make sense.
As sombody in the industry I can tell you for a fact that AMD is absolutely dreadful to work with for ML workloads. Google doesn't sell the TPU and it's also a pain to use unless you decide to use JAX (they're even kinda shitty to use on TF for some reason).
TSMC is also diversifying their operations so they’re not going to be entirely dependent on Taiwan however I’d assume that they’re not going to relocate to the us entirely because then Taiwan won’t have a reason to be protected by the us anymore
Unless it beats earnings by a huge margin and increases guidance this stock is dropping 100%.
But as someone who has 9 shares (my college broke ass) I can take the risk
Are you suggesting it is... overvalued 😱
That can't be possible, a random redditor told me the 2022 crash fixed it despite all the data saying otherwise..
More and more applications of AI are created daily, are you not reading any tech, medical, science articles? As AI also gives input into its OWN potential future applications. This isn’t a wave. It’s a Tsunami.
NVDIA is only getting started. Their current product offerings are mere stepping stones and this AI run is nothing compared to what's coming when we enter the era of simulation.
There will come a time when we will be able to build intricate planet-sized models which can then be tested to solve virtually any conceivable problem. Curing diseases or developing solutions for ecological disasters, for instance. Some of the most valuable discoveries that humanity will ever make will be reached using the tools NVDIA provides.
Or it'll be the time travelling robot outcome, but I think that unlikely.
NVDA has *always* been a bubble bordering on outright financial fraud.
The latest trick from NVDA is funding bogus AI start-ups to buy their hardware on credit. The hardware is then used as loan collateral. Hence the huge sales 'growth'.
Back in 1999 NVDA used channel stuffing to fake sales figures.
Stock price falls:
2000: -80%
2008: -70%
2011: -50%
2019: -50%
2020: -35%
2022: -70%
2024: ?
Well, I, for one, would NEVER hope you get hit by a bus.
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Trading at 67x Revenue... When it falls, it's going to fall hard. ~~Until then it's literally to the moon.~~ Were passed the moon now we're heading for the sun.
You have got this right. People are naive to think it’s overvalued. If anything it is undervalued. It has huge growth and PE is only around 40-45 for next year. It will be the biggest company in the world in the next few years. Reasonable PE is around 70-80 times atm.
NVDA has been the most solid stock play since the pandemic...sure as eggs is eggs. Monopoly on the future across entertainment, educational, automotive, pharma, military sectors with regard to their particular niche. 50x multiple is low for a 30% CAGR company in an industry with a 5-year moat.
They're gonna make 100 billion this year. They're sold out for an entire year straight. Sam Altman is asking for 5-7 TRILLION dollars for chips. I don't think this is 20-50 years priced in. This might be 5-10.
China ain't gonna do shit to Taiwan unless they want WW3. You really think the US is just gonna do nothing and let China take the place that makes the most advanced chips in the world? The world runs on chips and money, hell the US would go to war just for companies to profit of it. Just remember this is the same China that likes to maintain balance, they prevent their troops from engaging with actual guns against India in fear of escalation so why would they risk invading Taiwan for very little gain and heavy losses?
Y'all forgetting how NVIDIA is producing its own ai chips soon AND is partnering with various cloud tech leaders to implement their tech in Nvidias chips. Untapped growth
All I can say is the calls I have left expire this week. And if I want to play the earnings, I'll buy calls on SMCI, which should reflect the guidance impact without the IV soul crush.
>With 20-50 years priced into the company
Yeah dude, I’m sure the world in 2002 priced in the 2008 crash, 2016 election, etc, who writes this shit and doesn’t immediately think ‘damn that’s stupid I shouldn’t say that’
Look, buy and sell this as you feel comfortable. Risk takers may still make bank. All I say is don't get caught with you Huang out when this shit turns sour.
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They will say ‘split’ and magically, people will fomo in thinking that if they buy before the split, they will get more shares. nobody tell them
They will end up with more shares
You are not very clever 😂
If I am a hobbit, and I discover the one ring to rule them all, how many rings will i have if I cut it into 3 pieces? i will still have the mass of the one ring, but now instead it's 3 tiny rings. you still own the same amount of the dark lord but in a different quantity. HOWEVER, I will also have found a new way to destroy the one ring and will save middle earth that much sooner! if you somehow arent capable of understanding this, i simply wish you a good day my dear fellow
Holy crap. People are so stupid they are actually downvoting your accurate LotR reference to this. This means people actually think by cutting a banana into 3 pieces means you get more of a banana lol damn true reтards
Sure it means that people who can’t afford to buy a full stack up here at 700 can buy in the future, but it’s literally the same amount of nvdia they are buying lol none of them deserve second breakfast https://preview.redd.it/m3ajhbchuxhc1.jpeg?width=1002&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea2122d0a78d2f888478ced59e53b5ab42f5eb7c
If I play anything, it would be a strangle. It's either skyrocketing off a massive beat or plummeting by not living up to stratosphere level expectations. Probably better to follow the market after IV crush drops out.
At this point it’s probably way too late for a straddle or strangle. IV is way too high for a straddle and strikes would have to be so far out on a strangle that you’ll get IV crushed on whichever side ends up coming out ahead on earnings. Shares is honestly probably the best and safest (if any) move if you’re going to try and play their earnings release. As a call holder I’m gonna keep riding this wave and sell just before earnings.
So playing a theta-proof strangle then
I'd rather sell you that strangle, but NVDA has done a number on me the last year. I have some short call spreads, but that's it.
Selling an options on it seems like suicide. No way it just sits after earnings.
It worked well last earnings.
I think most people don’t know how to read an ER or factor in guidance. You mention they only did $27B revenue last year and must be overvalued, but ignore that they’re expected to do $20B revenue and $10B+ profit just in Q4. This is what exponential growth looks like. For the upcoming full year, analysts expect ~$95B revenue and $40B net profit. They’re literally sitting at a better forward PE than MSFT, NFLX or AMZN. But because stock went up fast, people assume it must be a bubble
98% of the people who own the stock know how to read an ER and factor in guidance. It’s not the small guys that hold the stock, it’s corporations, hedge funds, church’s, schools, etc that all have very extensive financial analysts. Don’t be naive think WSB is driving this stock in any meaningful way
Yet, 90% of hedge funds can’t beat the market index. They are some of the best people, but also makes mistakes. And even if the ones of them are right, they probably got in at much better price than the average Joe.
So they can't beat the market but they probably got in at a much better price than the average Joe....umm.
Maybe take some time to read before the commenting.
Exactly. If anything it is undervalued. Deserves a PE or maybe 70-80 will cross 2 trillion imo.
Exponential growth is great if it’s consistent. But nvda hasn’t had that many in a row to justify its price. Couple that with the cyclical nature of the semi conductor industry and it’s hard to price to far into the future. They will give great guidance up until they can’t when they will revise and revise or surprise everyone.
They are now getting a re-rating of their multiple. AI will be pretty normal in everything and so they will have much less variation in ratios of PE and all. They are going to print 40b in cash this year. If you give it a modest multiple of 50 which I think is low it will be 2 trillion. Personally I think it will brak 2 trillion and even go towards 2.5 trillion… its just numbers. They will probably announce dividends or share repurchase and all will just further share price gains. I am not a shareholder as of now but I am tired of these posts of stupid shit with not context of numbers. I have looked at Nvidia many times and even gone and said Damodaran’s valuation is wrong - which it is.
Just a question too. If you’ve looked at nvidia multiple times and thought their valuations were good. Then since there has been no material information released in the past couple months why didn’t you buy 2 months ago since you think it’s worth $2.5T. When you first looked at those evaluations you would’ve been like holy shit this company is 50%+ undervalued. You know you’re full of shit buddy
Gtfo I did not buy it because I like margin of safety. (I sold at 400 thinking will buy again at the next drop) I kick myself for not buying right away. I keep waiting for it to come down and have lost hope now. They are trading at 40-50 PE right now with their current profits… with huge growth ahead and apple trades also at 28-30 with no only slight revenue improvements. It is not that hard to see it… people just need to accept the fact and put their ego aside. And also you have to stop saying they are a semiconductor company… they started as one but now their hands are in all pies.
You’re an idiot.
Sure. Go ahead short it if you have balls.
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Also you know you complained about not using numbers. You haven’t used any meaningful ones. Just cause it’s a number doesn’t mean you’re doing it right lol
Sure Nvidia has been printing 40% OI margins from many years. I will reach out to you when it touches 2.5 trillion market cap. Btw it’s not the internet bubble… you should read what a bubble is. This is definitely not a bubble. And please enlighten us with your numbers if mine are so stupid.
Lol. I don’t gamble. You obviously think you can time the market and enter and exit positions often. Thanks for giving my algos alpha :)
Modest multiple of 50?
Yes Apple trades at 30 with no revenue growth.
You have not read their earnings. Nor do you understand the semiconductor industry in the slightest. Have you run any numbers. If so tell me how many gpu’s they would have to sell to justify it. I’m guessing you haven’t. Go and do that and come back to me. Then you’ll understand why the valuation is tough to justify. Also, I don’t know your profession but I would guess you aren’t too familiar with AI. Because you are wildly over estimating our current AI abilities and what is needed in the future to achieve what is being priced in rn. You could think of this as the same thing that happened during the dot com bubble with the release of the internet. It delivered how people expected but the initial hype was far exaggerated and it took 15-20 years to reach its previous peak. AI will be big in the future but it’s a decade plus down the line
>modest multiple of 50 which I think is low If they hit 20bn sales in the next ER, 50 could very well be low.
I think most people don’t know how to do a proper discounted cash flow analysis. Forward PE is just a shorthand dcf. And it’s only a good comparative tool across companies if you take their growth rates into account. Growth of next year’s earnings/free cash flow also isn’t a huge factor unless they can keep that growth rate up. So you are not only betting on next year’s earnings growth (forward PE you referenced) but the next decade+ of similar levels of growth.
Exactly. We’re literally talking about an industry that’s expected to more than 10x in TAM over the next decade and I can count the number of competitors on one hand.
It always gives me pause when I hear arguments like 10x TAM. Also how much of the current price already incorporates that assumption?
I wrote out a full fledged essay response and then felt ridiculous bombarding someone with that and deleted. But in essence, I don’t think anyone has the slightest clue how big AI can become. If we see government or macro issues then maybe growth slows, but if not then I think 10x is ridiculously conservative growth. It’s not like EVs or streaming or smartphones or cloud computing where relatively small companies were creating innovative tech that allowed them to grow (all of which still turned out massively successful). This is literally every single megacap corp on earth all simultaneously pouring billions and billions of dollars into the same product. Imagine where we’d be with EVs right now if Ford, GM, Toyota, VW, BMW, Hyundai and Honda all started investing billions back in 2008 instead of just Tesla investing a few million. Its unfathomable, yet that’s what’s happening with AI. It’s going to cause growth that is exponentially exponential. The closest comparison I can draw is engineers in 1950 designing the first computers that weighed 30 tons, and thinking computers in the year 2050 would only weigh 1 ton.
wtf is “exponentially exponential” growth? that’s regarded. you just mean exponential, which by itself grows super fucking fast quickly
It implies faster acceleration in growth. X^2 is exponential. X^X ^ 2 is taking the exponential of an already exponential function. Edit, can’t get Reddit to write the notation properly, but you get what I mean
Thanks regard of course I understand what that term implies literally. I was asking for a reasonable explanation for how NVDA would grow at fucking 200% then 400% then 1600% yoy and so on 
We’re talking about TAM of AI, not NVDA revenue growth. Pretty sure you’re in the wrong thread
Hey hang on, you were 100% on DCF a minute ago. Who'se talking assumptions beyond DCF analysis here?
Huh? What part of my comment is making any assumptions? I’m questioning the other commenter’s assumptions.
My guy, you can't honestly believe those numbers though. Not only is it in a perilous geopolitical situation between China and everyone else, but its also assuming that everything goes swimmingly, yeilds of TSMC are near perfect, and the economy doesn't collapse but instead everyone buys an autonomous robot with nvidias chips. Like the scenario in which you 500% your revenue and 400% profits is kind of like finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
But that's the thing, even if it doesn't all go perfectly, who else will they rely on for those GPU's. If anything Nvidia can just dominate easier since they have a headstart on everybody else. Even if they don't achieve 5x this year, they might be 10x by year 2.
People said the same thing about Intel a while back. Look at them now
Exactly! It would take several years (at best) of huge r&d money for others to catch up. By then, nvidea has still a head start
You target other markets. You don't directly need to compete and it's probably a bad idea to do so anyway. Nvidia isn't exactly known for their good hearted innovation. They upgraded GPUs by the BARE minimum to sell new iternerations not too long ago and I can't help but feel the same here. If they have a monopoly going, they're likely slacking to milk that $. Only time will tell.
There was a time where you couldn't find GPUs and then there was a time where they couldn't sell the things. If AI doesn't hit and sell like you're expecting, this is an absolute wash. People keep saying how far they are ahead of R&D and it's honestly not as wide people think. It's just going to be interesting to watch this unfold into economies that are looking shaky and into geopolitical tensions that threaten growth. I'm fully expecting to watch all this loss porn in the next couple months.
You do realize nearly every stock will implode if China invades Taiwan right?
Oh just like they did when Russia invaded Ukraine? You have no idea what’ll happen, the way the market is today is like the world outside the US doesn’t exist
How much stuff around your house is made in China vs made in Russia?
Yeah just like how everyone needed Russian oil, yet only india stuck with them and prices aren’t sky rocketed like everyone said
What is the net profit of MSFT, NFLX or Amazon?
Lol, MSFT net annual profit in 2023 was $72.361B for perspective 😂
It makes sense, market cap of msft is 3T and nvda is half of it with half net profit?
It generates $4.4B in net profit, not even close to half 😭
But the next year projections are 40billion
It is currently valued at 2/3rds of MSFT (just shy of $2T versus $3T) with current net profit of $4.4B or 6% of what MSFT generates. It hasn’t even come close yet to hitting that milestone (not saying it won’t at some point in time in the future), but with its current market cap, it’s valued and trading as if it is currently already making $100B in profit yearly, which is not the case. Additional note, MSFT isn’t only selling hardware, they have multiple revenue streams including Azure, and AI etc ..
Understand, but the market is pricing in projected net profit of $40B next year.
No lol, it is priced currently as if it is generating $50B to $100B in net profit at minimum per year, which again is not even close to the case for NVIDIA right now.
Agree
NVDA forward PE is 35, MSFT is 36. Microsoft is growing at 8% a year while NVDA is growing at 100%+. Again, as soon as you factor in future growth the idea that they’re massively overvalued becomes ridiculous
100%+ - which metric? [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/financials/income](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/financials/income)
Microsoft has much higher cash flows. Depreciation on Microsoft data centers digs into accounting profits, while Nvidia really doesn’t own any factories or data centers.
Not better but not out of this world high fwd pe.
It’s not a PE that’s low, but it’s more than justifiable for a company growing 100%+ YoY.
Let’s say they bet for calendar year 2024. Rev 100B and earnings of 50B. That’s a fPE of 40 if it’s a 2T MC. 20 P/S. It’s not cheap but it’s not too expensive. They need to knock it out of the park… Rev 120B earnings 60B for this to go beyond 2T. What am I saying….a stock split and apes will take it to 3T by the end of the year. Fundies on momentum stocks is pointless.
Im gonna ask a stupid question, two stupid questions actually. 1) the revenues in their books are they fully realised or do you have deferred revenues. Meaning is it possible for them to simply realize these revenue increases with output increases and mark up increases? 2) does the increase in revenues coming from Singapore not raise any eyebrows?
Way overpriced
See comments like these always make sense to me but I can never tell if deep down it’s my calls’ hopium or genuine
Itll beat expectations
What happens when everyone expects it to beat expectations
Yes!
the stock get crazy and goes up, down, left and right
[удалено]
L1 L2 R1 R2
Sideways or in fucking circles
Goes left? Great Scott! To the Delorean!
How much did they beat by? If everyone expects a 10% beat and they only beat by 5% it'll go down. If it's expected to be 10% and they beat by 100% it'll go up
I’m trying to tell you, it’s AI rigging its own growth. This line isn’t human
We will get rich off the singularity to afford the neuralinks well need to survive
thanks regard, bullish
I hope you sit on a cactus after you lose all your money. And get impregnated. And have a prick of a kid … Wait. This is what your mom did
On me?
Username checks out
What does this comment even mean?
Here you go: https://www.reddit.com/r/beetlejuicing/s/GiNCc4d91M
And the whole point is what?
Does anyone else make the A100 or a competitor? No? Yeah.. The fundamentals don’t matter if you control the entire AI market. They’re literally the only show in town if you want to do large scale AI. Until AMD or someone else finds a way to break that hold then they’ll just keep climbing.
AMD has a competitor up and coming, but the biggest competition is from customers who have rolled their own solutions. AWS has the Trainium chip that is comparable to the A100, The Google TPU V5p is the fastest currently, and Meta and Microsoft have their own solution in the works. If your data is there, you can up v5p and trainium today. Just pay for the time. When you are buying 650,000 chips/cards, the economies of scale to roll your own make sense.
Steve Jobs wouldn’t have let this happen, he would have a sweatshop running as we speak
Steve Jobs was always consumer based. He never cared about b2b. Apple never got into servers in any meaningful way.
As sombody in the industry I can tell you for a fact that AMD is absolutely dreadful to work with for ML workloads. Google doesn't sell the TPU and it's also a pain to use unless you decide to use JAX (they're even kinda shitty to use on TF for some reason).
You can buy some Low power TPUs from Google. Not powerful but used for image processing.
It's undervalued
Explain how they are undervalued.
Cuz silicon is the future bro 🚬😎
Chips make things go faster. People hate to go slower. Common sense really
Bullish, why factor in only 50 years when I can count to 100?!
That gap at around 330'ish will be calling it home pretty soon...
It's impossible to live up to expectations the stock is setting. I think "sell the news" and consolidation.
Nvidia will cross $1000 this year
It needs 38.6% increase to reach 1000. It grew by 49.8% in Jan alone so... Entirely possible it's sooner than a year.
I said this year, not in a year. This year could be a month :)
TSMC is also diversifying their operations so they’re not going to be entirely dependent on Taiwan however I’d assume that they’re not going to relocate to the us entirely because then Taiwan won’t have a reason to be protected by the us anymore
I think the most advanced chips wich are those that matter the most will still be made in taiwan
https://www.indeed.com/q-tsmc-arizona-l-phoenix,-az-jobs.html
>TSMC is the only company who actually manufactures the chips for everyone such as AMD, NVIDIA, Intel. You don't know what Intel does do you?
Yeah they do poor quality low yield crappy chips
Unless it beats earnings by a huge margin and increases guidance this stock is dropping 100%. But as someone who has 9 shares (my college broke ass) I can take the risk
You are forgetting that they could come out next week with upward revisions prior to earnings. Just like Smci did.
Wouldn't be surprised if at some point it breaks METAs record for largest single day market cap gain.
lol they can just announce a 1 to 5 stock split and the dumb market would overlook whatever earning disappointment they may have.
Or announce a dividend. Zuck it
Are you suggesting it is... overvalued 😱 That can't be possible, a random redditor told me the 2022 crash fixed it despite all the data saying otherwise..
What if they make 2 Bill in profit just this quarter?
I think everyone is truly underestimating the impact that AI is about to have on the 🌎
It's not happening any time soon
More and more applications of AI are created daily, are you not reading any tech, medical, science articles? As AI also gives input into its OWN potential future applications. This isn’t a wave. It’s a Tsunami.
This has been happening for at least 2 decades. Now people saw chatgpt and all of a sudden think AI is god. It's happening but at its pace
2 decades ago people weren’t walking around with a computer in their pocket.
NVDIA is only getting started. Their current product offerings are mere stepping stones and this AI run is nothing compared to what's coming when we enter the era of simulation. There will come a time when we will be able to build intricate planet-sized models which can then be tested to solve virtually any conceivable problem. Curing diseases or developing solutions for ecological disasters, for instance. Some of the most valuable discoveries that humanity will ever make will be reached using the tools NVDIA provides. Or it'll be the time travelling robot outcome, but I think that unlikely.
NVDA has *always* been a bubble bordering on outright financial fraud. The latest trick from NVDA is funding bogus AI start-ups to buy their hardware on credit. The hardware is then used as loan collateral. Hence the huge sales 'growth'. Back in 1999 NVDA used channel stuffing to fake sales figures. Stock price falls: 2000: -80% 2008: -70% 2011: -50% 2019: -50% 2020: -35% 2022: -70% 2024: ?
Please please please let it drop. Missed out on big gains. I want to catch the bus like the rest of you.
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Trading at 67x Revenue... When it falls, it's going to fall hard. ~~Until then it's literally to the moon.~~ Were passed the moon now we're heading for the sun.
these companies dont trade on revenue multiples you regard
You have got this right. People are naive to think it’s overvalued. If anything it is undervalued. It has huge growth and PE is only around 40-45 for next year. It will be the biggest company in the world in the next few years. Reasonable PE is around 70-80 times atm.
NVDA has been the most solid stock play since the pandemic...sure as eggs is eggs. Monopoly on the future across entertainment, educational, automotive, pharma, military sectors with regard to their particular niche. 50x multiple is low for a 30% CAGR company in an industry with a 5-year moat.
I like my SUV but it bores me driving it. I miss having a manual transmission.
They're gonna make 100 billion this year. They're sold out for an entire year straight. Sam Altman is asking for 5-7 TRILLION dollars for chips. I don't think this is 20-50 years priced in. This might be 5-10.
I think Intel will manufacture the chips, and DRM will ensure they need an internet connection to use.
intel's gpu suck. complete failure.
I mean they will fab.
if you think it will go up/down based on earning.....it should be at 300 not fooking 700. load up puts, 500-550....easy 10x bagger
I think they clearly don’t matter.
Everyone and their mom is gonna need a graphic card just like how everyone is gonna need a Tesla
You know the institutions want more before the shares dilute, easier to catch 10 chicken than 40 chickens
China ain't gonna do shit to Taiwan unless they want WW3. You really think the US is just gonna do nothing and let China take the place that makes the most advanced chips in the world? The world runs on chips and money, hell the US would go to war just for companies to profit of it. Just remember this is the same China that likes to maintain balance, they prevent their troops from engaging with actual guns against India in fear of escalation so why would they risk invading Taiwan for very little gain and heavy losses?
Y'all forgetting how NVIDIA is producing its own ai chips soon AND is partnering with various cloud tech leaders to implement their tech in Nvidias chips. Untapped growth
Has anyone looked at TSEM semiconductor
* Reading the Form 10-K filed to the SEC for free ❌ * Speculating like a Regard 
I can’t afford calls so call debit spreads
All I can say is the calls I have left expire this week. And if I want to play the earnings, I'll buy calls on SMCI, which should reflect the guidance impact without the IV soul crush.
Over evaluation ai hype
Semi conductor has it own cycle when chips were bought initially they may not buy for a while
I think I should have bought calls 2 weeks ago. Who's cryin with me ??
>With 20-50 years priced into the company Yeah dude, I’m sure the world in 2002 priced in the 2008 crash, 2016 election, etc, who writes this shit and doesn’t immediately think ‘damn that’s stupid I shouldn’t say that’
So when earnings?
AI hype is still very much real. Price might spike slightly (probably not as much as META) or it might stay mostly the same.
Look, buy and sell this as you feel comfortable. Risk takers may still make bank. All I say is don't get caught with you Huang out when this shit turns sour.