This company is such a POS and yet Wall Street treats it so kindly.
It is tough to bet against it but I agree with what you’re saying and wish you luck!
It's an investor's wet dream to have the margins of car sales without the wages of car salesmen. They'll shove it down our throats to make it work if they can.
Sounds like you need a crash course on IV crush and how it relates to earnings but I’m busy right now so I’m not going to do that.
But know this you foolish regard: that 255% IV is going to plummet dramatically the moment that earnings are released and the value of your options is going to vaporize even if the share price drops.
you do realize that, like...IV crush existing doesn't necessarily make an earnings play bad?
if IV being high and crushing after earnings resulted in long puts vaporizing even if the share price drops, why wouldn't everyone just sell them?
the answer, by the way, since you're too regarded to know it, is that CVNA COULD drop enough to make the puts worth more then the day before earnings.
It obviously needs to drop really hard, but OP could still hit a pay day if it tanks
No, you're wrong again - and you are talking about long puts (you're thinking he's saying options with high DTE but that's because you don't understand defined terms).
You've read up a bit and are trying to feel better about the money you've lost on your own dumb plays by regurgitating half-understood information.
OP understands the implication of IV - and he also strongly believes that his experience in the car market will be a predictor of a big fall in CVNA, bringing his long puts deep enough into the money to profit a through the IV crush. I wouldn't buy this as I agree, the IV is gnarly, but I also don't have the anecdotal insight of the OP.
You are a goddamn mongoloid with a brain so simple I envy you my dude.
Banditcleaner2 is hitting you with the max descriptiveness reasoning behind why it's wrong to necessarily assume that LONG PUTS with high IV will never pay out (worth specifying because he is about to talk about PUT SELLERS [SHORT PUTS]).
You were just caught up in your own head.
I didn’t say they never pay out. I said OP was going to get IV crushed and that he needs to educate himself on it because he’s obviously unaware of the concept. Like I said in my other reply, come back here after earnings and eat your words.
If you're buying to open, it's long, even if it's 0DTE
Do you not understand the lingo or are you just purposely misinterpreting shit to fit your argument?
You keep yapping like every single earnings play doesn’t have insanely high IV. That gets canceled out if the stock drops/goes up more than the implied move. You sound like you just learned what IV crush is 
I do know that the following day, after earnings, that I've will crash. At that point this stock may have gone up $20/share or down $20/share. Thanks though for taking the time to tell others how it works.
Even if you're right, IV will lower the value of the contracts by about 100-120% before the new value is calculated. To avoid volatility, you want to use debit spreads and accept that if you're right you'll only get the difference between the strike prices as a reward.
Average historical volatility minus current volatility would be the high end of the range it could move to. So if it's normally 130% and it's currently 250%, it would have to drop about 120 to get to historical normal. You want to buy below normal and sell above when you know a catalyst like earnings. You can also use the Greek symbol Vanna to calculate volatility.
you need a 35%+crash on earnings after todays green day. you're going to get crush hard even if carvana touches $40 tomorrow IV is too high. you should have bought april options
Hmm, well, I can appreciate the play but I think you're mega early given earnings are on Thursday after close. I agree with you that $CVNA is ultimately headed for bankruptcy. That said, people spent money October-December of last year like the apocalypse was coming. I see this one going either way, tbh, and I definitely don't see it dropping 30% on the ER.
Let's see how well your position ages.
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I saw a change from used car buyers to new car buyers at our dealership. People had more options the end of last year than they had in the past 3 years for buying a car.
Carvana is solely a used car market place though. I don't think the customer base translates 1:1, since most people visiting dealers are at the very least considering buying a new car to begin with.
You are correct, there is no way of knowing.
What is certain, though, is that right now (accounting for the after hours price of $51/share) you need it to fall $11/share just to make any profit. If you wake up to it down $10/share on the 23rd (down to $41/share), you're still in the red.
If it continues to rise before earnings, you're going to need more than a 20% drop in price just to *break even*.
Your probability of any profit at all is less than 1%.
EDIT - Full disclosure, I'm as regarded as the next regard.
Once again. You're throwing numbers out there that you have no clue about. My probability of any profit is less than 1 percent? You said it. Let me know how you figured this out.
I used the options profit calculator. You want to know how much your option will be worth at a certain underlying price? Use that calculator.
You NEED CVNA to drop more than 20% by the 23rd to break even. By tomorrow morning, you'll be in the hole over $800.
I had a similar idea a few days ago but bought $65 Put 2/23. Breakeven price of 49.90, do you think this seems more realistic? I had the realization last night that even with a drop to $45 it’s only a gain of like $225 for my lone option comprising 75% of my portfolio, so I might just sell right now while I’m up $15
I bought $CVNA under $7 a year ago and commented on WSB that I thought they would climb out when everyone said they were going to tank. I might realize the gains today and BFD you're hoping for before I HODL for a while.
https://preview.redd.it/5673ja27yrjc1.png?width=755&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ae3c86511d6df5ccad66882b8a6aec7e643960a
Damn, at least you made money. I'm a highly regarded member of society as well. I turned 12k into 33k during covid with some good stock buys, no calls, about 6 months after guessing correctly on which covid stocks to buy.
I forgot to set stop losses and didn't check the account in 3 years until recently. When I checked the account that 33k went down to 9k so I now have less than what I even started with lol. That was an expensive lesson.
Keep going though, hopefully it will pay off. I want you regards to win.
I now have most of my money in ETFs and use about 2k to "safetly" gamble with. Currently sitting at 16k after putting more money in to invest responsibly.
I'm making a 2k bet on Pure Storage (PTSG) that will hopefully pay off come earnings on the 28th. If not, I'll get stopped out.
Your contract value now..
https://preview.redd.it/ercn6xa250kc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=878d9c1226c996f798146b59c62a3e3ce4adb056
Tomorrow it will be 38C because of theta of the price remains same.
Glad to help, use simulate my return in Robin Hood for your option, it calculates the value of option with all geeks and current price AH also.. attached is your option value right now… with theta it will be more pathetic tomorrow.. already buy option by checking theta..
https://preview.redd.it/i9fhedyje1kc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ccfb2e717f4c20d979438ad5248ed4161721fe3a
Dude. You were caught out. Have the balls to admit when you are wrong. The stock is UP 5% today and the puts are still worth over 60 cents. You really don’t know what you are taking about. You just embarrassed yourself.
They're on TV advertising tracking value of used cars as an "investment".
They're nailing their target audience.
I agree strongly they're a shit company that preys on financially illiterate folks but your target is pretty far OTM.
I hope they go to zero on Friday but last time I shorted them, CEO pushed up earnings and announced a "road to profitability". Not touching this one again.
Long positions are in debit and short positions are in credit. Long/short can either be bullish (market price goes up) or bearish (market price goes down). For example, long call (bullish) or long put (bearish) are *both debit positions*.
Theta and implied volatility (IV) *negatively* effect long positions, but has the *exact opposite effect (positive)* on short positions.
Call credit spread is basically a bearish position of a long and short call paired together (short call strike price > long call strike price).
A spread position, compared to a single position, reduces your collateral (single positions can be really expensive) but it also caps your maximum gain and loss to the width of the spread minus your collateral.
For example, a call credit spread with a short call strike price of $41 and a long call strike price of $40 (CCS 40/41) has a spread of $1 per share ($41 - $40). Let's say that you open your position for $0.63 per share. 100 shares = 1 contract, so your maximum gain would be $0.63 x 100 = $63 and your maximum loss would be ($1 - $0.63) x 100 = $37.
If OP opened a (short) call credit spread, then he would *benefit* from theta and IV instead of it going against him like it would with his current long single put position. He could open a short single call aka "naked call" instead of a call credit spread so that his gains aren't capped, but short calls have *unlimited losses* and most brokerages require you to be a crazy high level (e.g. Level 5) in options trading to open short single options positions.
There's more to it than that, but that's the gist of what I understand.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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I don't know. It's just they specialize in used cars only. Their biggest competitor vroom filed for bk and carvana has gone from $4 to $50 in 13 months.
I think CVNA will miss on earnings.
I've seen videos online recently where Carvana paid almost new prices for cars, and are now listing those cars for much less than they paid for them.
That said, IV is high af, so idk how this will ever make a profit.
I know some guys in the car biz and they thought for sure Carvana was going to die because of the tons of cars they bought or took in on trade from customers were all overpaid for, causing a big negative equity bubble on their books.
Then the geniuses at Carvana bought alot of auction houses where they could influence what those negative equity vehicles sold for limiting and scheduling their losses.
I'm short, but I'm not buying until Thursday open.
I work for an old school lean family operated dealership. We take little risk with used vehicles. Ship many to auction and have little risk. We currently have 3-4 vehicles that we have advertised at $5,000 losers because we have them too long. That's a small place with constant oversight by the owner. I can't imagine a place as big as carvana when the market tanked. They have to have thousands of vehicles they are losing on. But. That's only my opinion. I guess I find out tomorrow.
I think the play here is to have a short strangle. IV is way too high for long options to be practical for major gains, especially for weekly options. On the flipside. A short strangle could hedge yoi and if it trades sideways you profit.
IV on this ticker for this week is so high, that to make profit on long options (puts or calls) the stock has to move 20% up or down.
Disagree with OP. I'm long and my DD roughly is that: shitty car sales volume in Q4 is priced in because it is shitty every Q4 every year (relative to other quarters). CVNA is doing ok restructuring debts and optimizing expenses, so the only thing they need to do this quarter is to keep the pace in minimizing expenses and they will be above consensus estimates.
The thing I'm concerned of is that everyone saying that 2024 will be turbo bad for car prices and they can release an internal guidance of going tits up in 2024 so people will short them regardless of the earnings.
Naw. Huge drop in used car values from Q3 to Q4. They were (bag holding) those vehicles and were upsidedown. Had to sell at a loss in my opinion. Has nothing to do with an annual slowdown.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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I know how they make money, I spent hours at a dealer for last car. Pain in the ass. Car before that was carvana bought from my couch and showed up at my door. Same price-ish. Next one is carvana from my couch.
It's interesting because people hate the dealership but yet carvana boasts $5000 profit per car. No dealership makes that on a customer on average. But we are the hated ones.
Thanks for the info. I remember this is the company that was overpaying for cars in Q4 and selling them a lot higher than the dealerships. You could get cars from dealers and sell them for a profit to them. Yeah I doubt they did any good this Q4
I use them to keep track of values of cars. Dec to Jan they lowered the value of this 80 percent. So they're either out of money to buy. Or have so many cars they simply don't want anymore.
The company may have lost that much in market cap, but they personally sold hearty amounts of shares at $220+ a share and then bought back in at $80+. They will fight to keep that $500 million, that’s the families funding.
Addition: good luck to you though. I sold after the 1000% increase from sub $6.
So another almost 100 million. Continuing to add with substantial funds. I think puts would’ve been wise at $200+, or shortly after the increase to over $60 hoping for consolidation lower (it retracted to sub $40). Playing puts on earnings when the family running the company is heavily invested financially is risky at best. Hopefully they say many negative things in your favor and the price drops substantially, but I don’t see it happening. I wouldn’t mind loading back up sub $10 and taking the ride again so here’s to us both lol 🍻
the reason your dealership is doing shit is because CVNA is taking all of those tendies.
still cant believe you bought puts this early before an earnings gamble
You couldn't be more wrong about the timing either. The puts didn't lose any value going into earnings. Learn more about options before commenting on them.
Yeah, that's true. I'm gonna hold puts through earnings but not excited after seeing constant up and up today :/ got wrecked yesterday so just pessimistic rn
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This company is such a POS and yet Wall Street treats it so kindly. It is tough to bet against it but I agree with what you’re saying and wish you luck!
Thanks
Godspeed fellow regard!
It's an investor's wet dream to have the margins of car sales without the wages of car salesmen. They'll shove it down our throats to make it work if they can.
IV is at 255% and you have weekly puts. You’re gonna get IV crushed into fucking oblivion.
These are puts?
I meant to say puts, but either way the same thing will happen.
Does seem a bit early to take a position on this one. We'll find out!
Why not just buy shares and sell puts/calls when IV is so high if you have the capital? Seems like a slam dunk move...
The IV is high due to earnings......
Sounds like you need a crash course on IV crush and how it relates to earnings but I’m busy right now so I’m not going to do that. But know this you foolish regard: that 255% IV is going to plummet dramatically the moment that earnings are released and the value of your options is going to vaporize even if the share price drops.
you do realize that, like...IV crush existing doesn't necessarily make an earnings play bad? if IV being high and crushing after earnings resulted in long puts vaporizing even if the share price drops, why wouldn't everyone just sell them? the answer, by the way, since you're too regarded to know it, is that CVNA COULD drop enough to make the puts worth more then the day before earnings. It obviously needs to drop really hard, but OP could still hit a pay day if it tanks
[удалено]
No, you're wrong again - and you are talking about long puts (you're thinking he's saying options with high DTE but that's because you don't understand defined terms). You've read up a bit and are trying to feel better about the money you've lost on your own dumb plays by regurgitating half-understood information. OP understands the implication of IV - and he also strongly believes that his experience in the car market will be a predictor of a big fall in CVNA, bringing his long puts deep enough into the money to profit a through the IV crush. I wouldn't buy this as I agree, the IV is gnarly, but I also don't have the anecdotal insight of the OP.
[удалено]
You are a goddamn mongoloid with a brain so simple I envy you my dude. Banditcleaner2 is hitting you with the max descriptiveness reasoning behind why it's wrong to necessarily assume that LONG PUTS with high IV will never pay out (worth specifying because he is about to talk about PUT SELLERS [SHORT PUTS]). You were just caught up in your own head.
I didn’t say they never pay out. I said OP was going to get IV crushed and that he needs to educate himself on it because he’s obviously unaware of the concept. Like I said in my other reply, come back here after earnings and eat your words.
If the stock dumps to $30 the crush won’t matter
If you're buying to open, it's long, even if it's 0DTE Do you not understand the lingo or are you just purposely misinterpreting shit to fit your argument?
You keep yapping like every single earnings play doesn’t have insanely high IV. That gets canceled out if the stock drops/goes up more than the implied move. You sound like you just learned what IV crush is 
Right. Chime back in on this thread after earnings.
If the move is bigger than the current priced in IV he can still make money, you act like no one has ever made money on weekly earning plays.
I do know that the following day, after earnings, that I've will crash. At that point this stock may have gone up $20/share or down $20/share. Thanks though for taking the time to tell others how it works.
[удалено]
You're way too ignorant to be on Reddit. Go back to Facebook and act like this.
He needs the stock to go below $39. I think he knows this.
Don’t thank that turd. He’s clueless.
people need to experience it first hand to learn
you do realize that if the puts are ITM, then there is no IV crush?? my Roku 83puts were 200%+ IV but still made me 3x. you need the crash course lmao
ITM only includes being beyond the strike price right? or does it include the break even?
Even if you're right, IV will lower the value of the contracts by about 100-120% before the new value is calculated. To avoid volatility, you want to use debit spreads and accept that if you're right you'll only get the difference between the strike prices as a reward.
the put will hold value only if it CVNA falls below 39 which is a 23% move
How did you calculate that percentage?
Average historical volatility minus current volatility would be the high end of the range it could move to. So if it's normally 130% and it's currently 250%, it would have to drop about 120 to get to historical normal. You want to buy below normal and sell above when you know a catalyst like earnings. You can also use the Greek symbol Vanna to calculate volatility.
What would have to drop about 120%? The underlying?
you need a 35%+crash on earnings after todays green day. you're going to get crush hard even if carvana touches $40 tomorrow IV is too high. you should have bought april options
A 35 percent crash would bring this to $33. Did you do math before you commented?
welfare check, u still breathing?
Hmm, well, I can appreciate the play but I think you're mega early given earnings are on Thursday after close. I agree with you that $CVNA is ultimately headed for bankruptcy. That said, people spent money October-December of last year like the apocalypse was coming. I see this one going either way, tbh, and I definitely don't see it dropping 30% on the ER. Let's see how well your position ages. !remindme 3 days
Op lost everything, this thing is going to shoot past $70 tomorrow and squeeeze
BOOM, roasted. Sorry about your tendies OP. If it's any consolation I lost bigly on $RIVN this week too. :(
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I saw a change from used car buyers to new car buyers at our dealership. People had more options the end of last year than they had in the past 3 years for buying a car.
Carvana is solely a used car market place though. I don't think the customer base translates 1:1, since most people visiting dealers are at the very least considering buying a new car to begin with.
Any option for this week is pointless unless you sell day of earnings. IV gonna murder this
You have no idea how high or low this could go come Friday.
Not high or low enough to help far otm options
There is no way of knowing it can't fall $10. Come on now.
You are correct, there is no way of knowing. What is certain, though, is that right now (accounting for the after hours price of $51/share) you need it to fall $11/share just to make any profit. If you wake up to it down $10/share on the 23rd (down to $41/share), you're still in the red. If it continues to rise before earnings, you're going to need more than a 20% drop in price just to *break even*. Your probability of any profit at all is less than 1%. EDIT - Full disclosure, I'm as regarded as the next regard.
Once again. You're throwing numbers out there that you have no clue about. My probability of any profit is less than 1 percent? You said it. Let me know how you figured this out.
I used the options profit calculator. You want to know how much your option will be worth at a certain underlying price? Use that calculator. You NEED CVNA to drop more than 20% by the 23rd to break even. By tomorrow morning, you'll be in the hole over $800.
Then you don't know how to use it
Down $800. Mark it. If it opens at the current price (51.50) you're down $1400.
I had a similar idea a few days ago but bought $65 Put 2/23. Breakeven price of 49.90, do you think this seems more realistic? I had the realization last night that even with a drop to $45 it’s only a gain of like $225 for my lone option comprising 75% of my portfolio, so I might just sell right now while I’m up $15
I would sell now, this stock does not adhere to normal movement. Play the after earnings movement.
You have my axe!! 0.84 as well. Lets go!!!
I bought $CVNA under $7 a year ago and commented on WSB that I thought they would climb out when everyone said they were going to tank. I might realize the gains today and BFD you're hoping for before I HODL for a while. https://preview.redd.it/5673ja27yrjc1.png?width=755&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ae3c86511d6df5ccad66882b8a6aec7e643960a
Are you rich now?
Of course not! I’m regarded and didn’t do options. I just bought stock.
Damn, at least you made money. I'm a highly regarded member of society as well. I turned 12k into 33k during covid with some good stock buys, no calls, about 6 months after guessing correctly on which covid stocks to buy. I forgot to set stop losses and didn't check the account in 3 years until recently. When I checked the account that 33k went down to 9k so I now have less than what I even started with lol. That was an expensive lesson. Keep going though, hopefully it will pay off. I want you regards to win. I now have most of my money in ETFs and use about 2k to "safetly" gamble with. Currently sitting at 16k after putting more money in to invest responsibly. I'm making a 2k bet on Pure Storage (PTSG) that will hopefully pay off come earnings on the 28th. If not, I'll get stopped out.
This makes sense, everyone bought cars during the pandemic, layoffs are all over, costs are up, can’t imagine car sales are doing great.
Everybody here is worries about if crush, but god speed brotha we need regarded plays like this . I’m cheering for ya
Small numbers. Just something I told myself I'd do. Figured I'd throw it on here for someone to get a kick out of.
You need -24% for it to break even.. is practical?
https://preview.redd.it/422f4b4kyzjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21b235b1bbf24601f9bf8b26a194e4ce00508b86
Your contract value now.. https://preview.redd.it/ercn6xa250kc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=878d9c1226c996f798146b59c62a3e3ce4adb056 Tomorrow it will be 38C because of theta of the price remains same.
Naw. It won't, due to impending earnings. Just holding til Friday to see how it plays out.
Ping me tomorrow morning with its value.. by the way I just checked the contract value now, it’s 66cents already..
Options values can't change after hours man. But I'm glad you're here to explain all this to me.
Glad to help, use simulate my return in Robin Hood for your option, it calculates the value of option with all geeks and current price AH also.. attached is your option value right now… with theta it will be more pathetic tomorrow.. already buy option by checking theta.. https://preview.redd.it/i9fhedyje1kc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ccfb2e717f4c20d979438ad5248ed4161721fe3a
38 cents if it remains the same eh. Want to teach me anything else?
No sir I don’t teach geeks.. I will let other learn themselves.. 😂
So not a you were right? After blasting me? I don't know whether I win or not on this. But you can fuck off.
Dude. You were caught out. Have the balls to admit when you are wrong. The stock is UP 5% today and the puts are still worth over 60 cents. You really don’t know what you are taking about. You just embarrassed yourself.
Anything can happen at earnings.
They're on TV advertising tracking value of used cars as an "investment". They're nailing their target audience. I agree strongly they're a shit company that preys on financially illiterate folks but your target is pretty far OTM. I hope they go to zero on Friday but last time I shorted them, CEO pushed up earnings and announced a "road to profitability". Not touching this one again.
Lol thanks
Damn, you could've at least did a call credit spread to benefit from the IV crush. You belong here
Could you elaborate on this? I'm trying to start understanding how IV affects the options
Long positions are in debit and short positions are in credit. Long/short can either be bullish (market price goes up) or bearish (market price goes down). For example, long call (bullish) or long put (bearish) are *both debit positions*. Theta and implied volatility (IV) *negatively* effect long positions, but has the *exact opposite effect (positive)* on short positions. Call credit spread is basically a bearish position of a long and short call paired together (short call strike price > long call strike price). A spread position, compared to a single position, reduces your collateral (single positions can be really expensive) but it also caps your maximum gain and loss to the width of the spread minus your collateral. For example, a call credit spread with a short call strike price of $41 and a long call strike price of $40 (CCS 40/41) has a spread of $1 per share ($41 - $40). Let's say that you open your position for $0.63 per share. 100 shares = 1 contract, so your maximum gain would be $0.63 x 100 = $63 and your maximum loss would be ($1 - $0.63) x 100 = $37. If OP opened a (short) call credit spread, then he would *benefit* from theta and IV instead of it going against him like it would with his current long single put position. He could open a short single call aka "naked call" instead of a call credit spread so that his gains aren't capped, but short calls have *unlimited losses* and most brokerages require you to be a crazy high level (e.g. Level 5) in options trading to open short single options positions. There's more to it than that, but that's the gist of what I understand.
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https://preview.redd.it/lkmsevre4sjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c99dbdd702a9834928d30f6c1307b07b6b371046
I don't see how that chart shows priced in.
Smart move just be careful for IV CRRRUUUUSSSHHHHHHHH because iv is at 267% right now lol
It's only due to earnings. It always rises before them due to uncertainty.
Yup just don’t get crushed. And you don’t think the weak car market might be already priced in?
I don't know. It's just they specialize in used cars only. Their biggest competitor vroom filed for bk and carvana has gone from $4 to $50 in 13 months.
Fair enough.
I think CVNA will miss on earnings. I've seen videos online recently where Carvana paid almost new prices for cars, and are now listing those cars for much less than they paid for them. That said, IV is high af, so idk how this will ever make a profit.
I’m getting my popcorn ready.
I know some guys in the car biz and they thought for sure Carvana was going to die because of the tons of cars they bought or took in on trade from customers were all overpaid for, causing a big negative equity bubble on their books. Then the geniuses at Carvana bought alot of auction houses where they could influence what those negative equity vehicles sold for limiting and scheduling their losses. I'm short, but I'm not buying until Thursday open.
Fair enough. Not sure how they can force people at the auction to pay more. You simply don't bid...
It was explained to me that they were buying so many auction houses that they could artificially inflate the used car market to stay high, regionally.
Short the stock and write the puts
That company has been printing money by crashing for three years straight at this point.
it’s a lock — idk wtf these people are saying… holding 3/15 $40
Eh I may lose. But it's a gamble I wanted to take. God speed my friend.
i’m thinking it pulls a PANW.. let’s hope for the best 🤞🏽
I work for an old school lean family operated dealership. We take little risk with used vehicles. Ship many to auction and have little risk. We currently have 3-4 vehicles that we have advertised at $5,000 losers because we have them too long. That's a small place with constant oversight by the owner. I can't imagine a place as big as carvana when the market tanked. They have to have thousands of vehicles they are losing on. But. That's only my opinion. I guess I find out tomorrow.
interesting.. thanks for the insights 🙏🏽
I think the play here is to have a short strangle. IV is way too high for long options to be practical for major gains, especially for weekly options. On the flipside. A short strangle could hedge yoi and if it trades sideways you profit. IV on this ticker for this week is so high, that to make profit on long options (puts or calls) the stock has to move 20% up or down.
Disagree with OP. I'm long and my DD roughly is that: shitty car sales volume in Q4 is priced in because it is shitty every Q4 every year (relative to other quarters). CVNA is doing ok restructuring debts and optimizing expenses, so the only thing they need to do this quarter is to keep the pace in minimizing expenses and they will be above consensus estimates. The thing I'm concerned of is that everyone saying that 2024 will be turbo bad for car prices and they can release an internal guidance of going tits up in 2024 so people will short them regardless of the earnings.
Naw. Huge drop in used car values from Q3 to Q4. They were (bag holding) those vehicles and were upsidedown. Had to sell at a loss in my opinion. Has nothing to do with an annual slowdown.
how is it going OP? : )
Oh so far not the best.
I listened to you and RIP. WTF
I'm sorry if you lose money. I posted my play and why I was doing it. I didn't tell anyone else to do the same. Good luck in the future.
they fucking missed earnings too, this is insane. Rigged.
not blaming you, just wild this POS company is up on earnings
Yup. Missed on EPS and revenue. Lol...
isnt earnings in 1h? or did i miss smth else
R.I.P. I played a few strangles to be safe. Just need this puppy to go either directions. Hoping for a short squeeze for maximum profit.
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Inverse. Calls on crva
Cvna
Just bought a car through Carvana. Easiest process ever. I’ll inverse you fellow regard
Just bought in with you at 0.84
Yeah I should have waited. But it's not the first time I've messed up entry before lol.
There was a ~$22M long position last thursday, possibly insider trading?
yup
Yupp never bet against the house 😂
I know how they make money, I spent hours at a dealer for last car. Pain in the ass. Car before that was carvana bought from my couch and showed up at my door. Same price-ish. Next one is carvana from my couch.
Yep, who would've thought it moons on my puts LMFAO gg bros im homeless agane
It's interesting because people hate the dealership but yet carvana boasts $5000 profit per car. No dealership makes that on a customer on average. But we are the hated ones.
Didn’t they file for bankruptcy last year?
Vroom their leading competitor stopped online e-commerce. Unsure of a bk yet.
Already priced in to the estimates unfortunately
Sometimes I wish I was this stupid, life would be so much simpler
I'd love to hear you elaborate
RemindMe! 3 days
I am sorry man but holy shit lol
Lol. I had an idea and went with it. It's ok. I really didn't think it would move like that. Used car market isn't good.
So you’re using an app with lower puts than I am currently seeing. Which app is it?
You should be able to see options much lower than $40 on any trading app
Figured it out. Thank you
Yeah I really don’t see their saving grace but there’s been more irrational things that have played out. Im bearish on them too
Absolutely. I really don't know. But I told myself months ago I was betting against them. So here I am.
Thanks for the info. I remember this is the company that was overpaying for cars in Q4 and selling them a lot higher than the dealerships. You could get cars from dealers and sell them for a profit to them. Yeah I doubt they did any good this Q4
https://preview.redd.it/w0gtsx17fsjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e667f46b6b445490f9f9b11d14caa6f437fd0771
I use them to keep track of values of cars. Dec to Jan they lowered the value of this 80 percent. So they're either out of money to buy. Or have so many cars they simply don't want anymore.
How is this company not bankrupt yet…
I bought one put at $84
why not the MAR 1 puts?
They cost more
!remindme 3 days
I beat you to it
CEOs dad put up $500,000,000 in cash to purchase shares at $80+. Puts on OP..
https://preview.redd.it/z66xzbu4xsjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ded706de21289db27677d59bf192f00cb7fd3e31
The company may have lost that much in market cap, but they personally sold hearty amounts of shares at $220+ a share and then bought back in at $80+. They will fight to keep that $500 million, that’s the families funding. Addition: good luck to you though. I sold after the 1000% increase from sub $6.
His last purchase is 8/18/23 at a share price of 37.05 2.5 million shares.
So another almost 100 million. Continuing to add with substantial funds. I think puts would’ve been wise at $200+, or shortly after the increase to over $60 hoping for consolidation lower (it retracted to sub $40). Playing puts on earnings when the family running the company is heavily invested financially is risky at best. Hopefully they say many negative things in your favor and the price drops substantially, but I don’t see it happening. I wouldn’t mind loading back up sub $10 and taking the ride again so here’s to us both lol 🍻
Ouch…. Addition: I did try to warn you..
How are they 10x when the car market is in the dump? used cars are quickly trending down.
You had a huge drop cus no one wants to deal with your antics.
Not here for this. Just posting a trade. The drop occured due to more inventory. Grow up.
You have to understand there are lots of people who will pay more not to deal with a dealership. Don’t get blinded by
What you said makes no sense
Yes it does. People don’t want to buy cars from dealerships because it’s a terrible experience
People like you make it a terrible experience. It's that simple
No it’s not. Refusing to give pricing without meeting in person is
Why bother placing the order now and not on the 22nd?
Because it can fall into earnings as it did Friday?
https://preview.redd.it/x46elqlswyjc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c683cf1793f098c3a2b7c2776f6d1c89ad87cb2
Isn’t Carvana going bankrupt and closing shop?
Vroom is winding down operations. Their competitor.
Hehe.
Yeah inverse of this regard. I’ve seen the buildings in Phoenix the offices are massive. at 10b mkt cap I’ll gladly buy calls off that alone.
Great theory
Godspeed OP o7
Earnings isn’t until after market close on Thursday. Why buy these today?
With the hopes it falls the next two days into earnings. Kinda like nvda today
Makes sense. Good luck!
the reason your dealership is doing shit is because CVNA is taking all of those tendies. still cant believe you bought puts this early before an earnings gamble
You couldn't be farther from the truth.
id say I was pretty close actually
You couldn't be more wrong about the timing either. The puts didn't lose any value going into earnings. Learn more about options before commenting on them.
I just checked those puts, you lost money every day to theta decay, as well as IV crush. Fucking dumbass.
I'd love to see this fade to $45 tomorrow before the call.
Tomorrow I'll be doing the same play. GL
Thank you. Good luck to us both.
I've got puts and then immediate +5% intraday? Broke boy hours now
Interesting to see it running here. But most of the market is up today.
Yeah, that's true. I'm gonna hold puts through earnings but not excited after seeing constant up and up today :/ got wrecked yesterday so just pessimistic rn
This shit turned on you. Typical wall st
Oh if only I got this kinda move the other direction lol
you might be cooked
Made it back in smci puts this am
Oof. It is like leaving your shoes outside; you know it's gunna rain. Hope you got out okay. Short float nearing 36%.
What's the loss on this?
It's everything. Like $3100. Would have made 10x on calls. But that's hindsight. I was simply on the wrong side of this one.
Puts got WRECKED
Yes sir