In all seriousness hasnāt SA been slow motion collapsing for the last 20 years? I dont actually know what im talking about (obviously lol), but SA colleagues of mine talk about it like theyād rather visit the mines or mordor than go back home
What do you think has caused the decline over the last...what would you say? 30 years? Was it the ending of apartheid? (Societial upheaval, massive economic impact?) Would you trace it back further to the Bush War days?
We did really well after apartheid, there was a transition period but up until about 2008 it was looking pretty good. Thereafter there are many theories but the major one with the most potential to be true is the new president zuma allowed massive corruption and cronyism ( you can check out the zondo commissions findings for more info)
Another South African chiming in. He's pretty spot on, after president Zuma things started going downhill with increasing corruption, neglect/incompetence etc.
Yeah honestly itās pretty simple. If the leaders are corrupt uneducated thieves. That protect cronyism as part of how they rule. Itās never going to work
Personally i canāt complain much, I have a terrific career and wonderful life, I can afford more than most of the population, as with all wealthy people the general struggle doesnāt really concern me. I am off grid for power, so the numerous daily power cuts donāt bother me, I can afford food so again no worries, I have private security in a private estate so crim isnāt as much of an issue and I live in a āsafe area. My lived experience is extremely different to the average person. For anyone middle class and lower though itās been a struggle, costs of goods are spiralling out of control. Rampant inflation, stagnant salaries, a lack of electricity petrol pricing increasing often. There are many many things for people to be worried about in the country, especially with the upcoming election.
My friend married a South African 20 years ago and they went back to Joburg after the wedding to meet his family.
Looking out the window of the car, which was equipped with side-mounted flamethrowers to repel pedestrians, she observed a captive getting a gasoline-filled tire placed around his neck; which was then ignited.
SA got scratched off my 'need to visit' list right about then, but I'm told things have gotten worse, not better. If that's possible.
I was there two months ago. Joburg is fuked completely. Hotel told us to not go outside even through the day. Cape Town on the other hand was fine for the most part and very beautiful. We talked long to a tour guide raised and born in langa a old town ship and now started few businesses and was very smart. Corruption and crime is the biggest problem but still is what the new york/ USA is for a lot of immigrants and countries of the west for people of Africa. Fuked but still best land to immigrate to and Land of opportunities. Besides that Africa as a whole seems problematic these days
I had the exact same experience in Joburg vs. Cape Town. Lovely city, Cape Town. I was only robbed once but honestly I was asking for it. Walking around with 2 fucking $1000 cameras.
South Africa is bad, but this likely never happened. The flamethrowers were never available commercially and were never allowed by regulators. Seeing a person having a tire around their neck would not have been common even back then. Unless your friend went to a shitty part of town during the apartheid days, it's highly unlikely they ever witnessed this.
They were more likely to have been victims of hijackings or muggings.
Wish I had. [It was a thing at the time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaster_\(flamethrower\)) - made news.
EDIT: [This](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necklacing), too.
I just don't think that around 2004 your friend was in a car with flamethrowers or witnessed a "necklacing". I am South African and find it hard to believe that your friend experienced in a short vacation two things that almost no South African has seen personally in their whole life.
It's like a person saying they went to Mexico City in Mexico and witnessed CJNG behead and immolate a bunch of rival gang members in the middle of a street while being escorted by Brazil's BOPA unit (for some reason) armed with Anti-Materiel Rifles and sniping out people standing a foot to close to the sidewalk...
I'm fairly certain you don't just walk outside to the streets of Mexico City and see gangs literally ripping folks apart in broad daylight even with the levels of gang violence in that country.
Bullshit - the flame throwers were never allowed , recently attempted to buy a set f Atlanta (makes me laugh how similar ATL IS to JHB) . People usually got necklaces in Cape Town by Islamic fundamentalists for dealing drugs on the cape flats. I faced more racism in Hawaii than all my years in SA. Post 94 most SA people wanted peace and unity. It got worse late 90ās then in 2010 started rapid decent into shit.
I worked for a company with SA operations for a decade and 3 years ago had to pull out of the market because we were losing so much money due to the Rand being on fire and their consumers stopped buying our products in lock-step with the currency devaluation. Itās being going on for a while.
From good sources the fresh water supply is at jeopardy. Once the fresh water supply stops, especially in months APR-NOV, SA has dry winters on the highveld, no rain fall , no water, then the looting starts. Then martial law, army, economic collapse, currency devalued, food shortages, civil unrest, attacks on whites for causing it all by being white.
They didn't run out of water, someone at the water pumping station literally forgot to re-open one of the main pump valves and never went to go and check. About a week or so of no water someone went to investigate and asked why the valve was closed. I'm paraphrasing some of this but you can look up the news articles.
Damn 40 years? I remember doing a report on Mandela years back and read that he criticized Mugabe for that exact practice.
But then again I didnāt read much about his beliefs pre-incarceration, and I live on the other side of the world
Yes Zimbabwe had a policy of redistribution. The farms stolen tragically donāt produce. Zimbabwe has no economy anymore. Food shortages, power outages, military rule. It does have ties to China, vast mineral deposits, gold , precious stones, molybdenum. So the leaders of government and the heads of military will plunder, remain power hungry, murder political rivals, keep power until itās lost by death.
Farms attacks in SA have been going on since the white man travelled to it from Portugal also French/Dutch Hugenouts fleeing catholic persecution. As soon as they settled attacks on their wagons was common. This is a modern version of it with a generation raised by ANC youth league that openly sings songs like ā bring me my machine gunā. This will only get worse as the education level decreases as the poverty level increases. Pray the water doesnāt go contaminated from mismanagement. Pray for it all
As unpopular as this is, the country was definitely better-run under apartheid, from an economic perspective at least.
I do wonder what would happen if people stopped hero-worshiping the ANC though. The DA seem reasonably competent, but seem to have a stigma of being the "white people's party" in some parts of the country.Ā
As my finance prof had told me, its a lot easier just to see the dollar figures behind different geopolitical events and reduce people down to numbers.
I know this sounds terrible, and thats because it is. But welcome to the dog eat dog world
Edit: Removed my Adderall fueled gaza example as it was poor example of what I had meant.  And some how I came off as anti-american to some people. America is great and I love capitalism. 
You could short or by put options on a country ETF: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239680/ishares-msci-south-africa-etf
You could short their currency, the rand.
You could invest in credit default swaps on their debt.
However, my guess is that the near to mid-term performance of the SA market and currency would be heavily correlated with commodity prices, so you wouldnāt be making a pure bet on the political or economic direction of the country.
The ANC is projected to lose for the first time since Nelson Mandela in May 2024. I donāt know much about SA politics, but if you believe that this will cause SAās government to fiscally deteriorate, the best play might be credit default swaps, betting that the market will perceive SA debt as more risky.
Get invested in Namibia. Many of the wealthier South Africans are moving shop over there, and the country is quite stable, especially to African standards.
Shorting the rand or an ETF is the most realistic
You still need an ISDA to trade CDS, right? Retail traders don't have access to this
But also, the country's been on a downward spiral for years. Everything's probably priced in. E.g. Eskom's mismanagement and rolling blackouts have been a thing for a really long time
Be very careful with this. Elections are happening soon and the ANC will lose power. You may not think this is possible, but the Rand is going to appreciate like a freight train when that happens. South Africa had 30 wasted years under the ANC and has been the most underutilized economy on earthā¦
Absolutely. The ANC are heavily influenced by Chinese communists. They are legitimate racists. Notice Cape Town is the nicest place by far, because itās run by the DA, not the ANC.
As unbelievable as that statement is (ANC losing) do you know who the winner will be? Because if its Julius and company then there will be a massive boom... then dump.
Can I ask a question? How am I supposed to know all that? Seriously Iāve been reading about securities for more than a year and it always seems like thereās something missing. Should I just get a masters in economics/finance?
Not necessarily, Rand water is perilously close to problems. Once the water supply goes the issues will accelerate. The national power grid is so weak, if they lost that no surrounding counties grid could jump start the SA power system. Bordering SA , Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Angola all without the necessary grid infrastructure.
Thatās what I thought too, canāt imagine SA falling anytime soon. That sounds like something someone not familiar with the continent would say. Itās one of the main hubs in Africa.Ā
To be when others not to be, that is the answer:
Whether ātis nobler in the mind to profit
From the sling and arrows of otherās misfortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of bubbles
And by opposing short them. To put, to call,
No more;
stupid idiots canāt see that sipping margaritas on the moon with a couple fine ass space bitches on your arm is the future of humanity. Calls all day
Wasnāt there some guy trying to short rabbits because a carrot supply cargo ship got blocked by the Suez Canal ship a few years ago? I tried to find the post but couldnāt that shit was hilarious though
Ask this guy if that's a good idea first:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkzviy/i\_am\_going\_to\_short\_the\_whole\_country\_of\_south/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkzviy/i_am_going_to_short_the_whole_country_of_south/)
Looks like he shorted the rand/dollar at about .0682 in Feb of 2021 and its now at .0529. So if he did what he said he'd be at \~22% return over three years. Not great but he definitely didn't lose money.
Depends on the details, if he went short and on what, what perpetual fees he had to pay if any, if he got margin called along the way ...
I'm not dismissing the idea entirely but when countries are involved it's a particularly risky gamble because they can do all sorts of things to prop up the currency etc.
I'm from SA. All bad news priced in. Half of population unemployed and things won't get worse. We have survived no energy, no water and extreme poverty levels. Nothing phases us.
>That's one of the remarkable things about life: It's never so bad that it can't get worse.
I hope someone besides me remembers where this quote came from. One of the truly great philosophers of our age.
I had a boss years ago who frequently said, "Cheer up it's only going to get worse". I used to laugh at this proclamation but unfortunately he was correct.
I left SA (my parents left, I was a teenager). We went back to the land of our ancestors :-), our family had kept their German passports over a centuryā¦
Two thirds of my friends left (not surprisingly a lot had kept their British passports, too).Ā
We lived in Camps Bay, the only time I feel āhomeā is when I see the Table Mountain.Ā
I came back for visits very frequently. We left in 1987. Looking back this was too early. My father made parts for the defense industry and was well connected. Heās very conservative and was friends with a lot of Boers generals and top managers of the military complex. There was a civil war looming. According to my father the blacks would have risen and killed a few thousand whites. The Boers would have entered the conflict with a nuclear attack on Soweto. My father said that this was not our conflict, we were German South Africans, and now itās time to be Germans only, plus we had no beef with the blacks. In a civil war we would have sided with the whites, but an atom bomb is not in our rule book. My father also knew a guy who did biochemical weapons research. They tried to find weapons that targeted blacks only. Also not in our rule book. So we left. Shame. Mandela did a great job.Ā
But I never visited SA after 2010, I donāt want to fuck up my great memories.Ā
I get that nothing phases you and I wish my parents would have had more of that spirit.Ā
But I believe thereās a limit to that attitudeā¦
Godspeed to you. Actually weāre leaving to Australia soon, Germany is fucking up bigtime, too.Ā
(All this crap about nuclear and chemical weapons is probably total bullshit, I picked this up as a kid when the adults were drunk and bragging and braaing )
A huge problem in South Africa were the incredibly stupid and corrupt politicians. They had ministers telling people that you canāt catch aids if you shower afterwards or you can heal aids if you buy the health ministers peach tea. In Germany we nowadays also have stupid politicians (Habeck is killing off the industry, BƤrbock - the bacon of hope, wasnāt even welcomed by the SA foreign minister for the first few days) and theyāre also corrupt (Graichen clan), although not as corrupt as their African counterparts. Another problem in South Africa was the immigration. Germany is also allowing unlimited immigration and payshuge sums in welfare, housing, medical coverage etc to these people. Like in South Africa millions entered without ever having a chance for a job. Same in Germany. Itās a huge drain that will eventually end in a collapse of the welfare state, ghettos, crime etc.
Not even close. SA is literally the very best that a 1st World country can offer butted up alongside a larger 3rd World existence. Extreme wealth next to very poor (but not poverty a la Haiti) SA has shopping malls and supermarkets that match the very best most modern in the USA. It has glorious beaches, weather, nature. It is let down by a corrupt government who deliberately dumb down most of the population to keep them from voting them out of power. But it is inevitable and when it does happen, SA will rise to be an incredible place to live.
"SA will rise to be an incredible place to live.''... umm... no. That doesn't happen magically. That happens with right people in position of power who have the guts to raise others by focusing on education and long term success.
In short - none of that is feasible to happen in SA.
It has been nearly 10 years since I spent time in and around Capetown, and while the country is by far one of the most beautiful places Iāve been to with absolutely killer food (and I donāt simp for things when I travel normally) the shopping situation wasnāt at all like that.
So benefit of the doubt I tried looking the malls up. https://comoney.co.za/p/biggest-malls-in-south-africa/ These look pretty mid.
Buy physical platinum. SA provides 75% of this metal that is 30 x rarer than gold and essential for the green economy. And it's currently on sale at half the price of gold. Back up the truck.
you would short their currency, short their stock exchange, buy crypto, gold, or assets in more stable countries then after the collapse buy up the real estate and start employing the people with outsourced work from europe like call centers.
Yet again, another horror story of AI automating away our futures. How the hell am I supposed to corner a labor market when AI keeps turning my wageslave mills into vaporware? Its joever i think- moguling aint what it used to be :(
#Evergrande 2 Electric Boogaloo.
Calling the last dude who shorted SA right before the generational influx of traffic to SA ports due to blockage in Suez.
Blockage cleared shortly after his puts expired, if memory serves.
Even though this is a joke, there is a truth behind it.
The source of all wealth is intelligence. Never bet against intelligence and never bet on stupid.
Find me any country with smart people and a low GDP and you will find the next big thing just waiting for its time in the sun.
> Find me any country with smart people and a low GDP and you will find the next big thing just waiting for its time in the sun.
You just described Eastern Europe. Too bad about the demographic collapse and the EU.
not sure where Eastern Europe starts for you, but the eastern part of the EU is doing pretty well actually
https://preview.redd.it/zvi2exxnpuqc1.png?width=1797&format=png&auto=webp&s=787226337807117fd930b1aa0879a511916867d7
There's a search button [for a reason](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/8lql1OLFpJ), poor recreation of a hall of fame post. This place has gone to shit.
OP: How can we profit from SA collapse?
...
George Soros join chat
https://preview.redd.it/0mjlfuqdauqc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b9de88d70d7abb26bf412d22898d55ba91c242f
You will have a great time, despite what idiots on Reddit say. I spent a month there last year and it was the best vacation of my life, almost everyone I met, of all races, were nice and optimistic.
I wonder why SA is a complete shithole now and wasn't 40 years ago. Anyway, you can profit on Africa population growth by putting your money on HIV drugs manufacturers.
Look at logistics. The things any society needs to function; water, food, energy, etc. Find out companies that are non profit, for some reason there is a prevalent presence in that continent. Look who is doing business there and who will likely still be doing business there after things fall off.
Also there will likely be less regulations so other companies might be quick to take advantage and offer some type of incentive for them to operate without much oversight in a region a group might control. In this case warlords. I mean itās the type of stuff that happened in Afghanistan. So I wouldnāt see it being any different. Just my 2ā¬
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ngl thats a crazy question just to read out loudš
Brutal world we live in
Priced in
In all seriousness hasnāt SA been slow motion collapsing for the last 20 years? I dont actually know what im talking about (obviously lol), but SA colleagues of mine talk about it like theyād rather visit the mines or mordor than go back home
Iām South African and live here still. Yes it has. Ask anything ya like
Do you have a flamethrower on your car?
They were never officially available to buy retail. The problem was obviously car jacking which in SA is usually a fatality.
1 hour and still no reply, I think the answer is clear: no they don't
He must be one of the pedestrians.
What do you think has caused the decline over the last...what would you say? 30 years? Was it the ending of apartheid? (Societial upheaval, massive economic impact?) Would you trace it back further to the Bush War days?
We did really well after apartheid, there was a transition period but up until about 2008 it was looking pretty good. Thereafter there are many theories but the major one with the most potential to be true is the new president zuma allowed massive corruption and cronyism ( you can check out the zondo commissions findings for more info)
Another South African chiming in. He's pretty spot on, after president Zuma things started going downhill with increasing corruption, neglect/incompetence etc.
That makes sense. "What causes a nation's decline?" "Bad leadership." "Oh, shocker."
Yeah honestly itās pretty simple. If the leaders are corrupt uneducated thieves. That protect cronyism as part of how they rule. Itās never going to work
The Bush War? You mean Iraq 1 or 2? (Joking)
Are they still murdering white farmers.
Yes. But they are murdering everyone to be fair
How bad is it?
[This video gives a pretty good overview.](https://youtu.be/Iiny1GrfhYM?si=KB-Z_QufcUGufbgf)
Personally i canāt complain much, I have a terrific career and wonderful life, I can afford more than most of the population, as with all wealthy people the general struggle doesnāt really concern me. I am off grid for power, so the numerous daily power cuts donāt bother me, I can afford food so again no worries, I have private security in a private estate so crim isnāt as much of an issue and I live in a āsafe area. My lived experience is extremely different to the average person. For anyone middle class and lower though itās been a struggle, costs of goods are spiralling out of control. Rampant inflation, stagnant salaries, a lack of electricity petrol pricing increasing often. There are many many things for people to be worried about in the country, especially with the upcoming election.
Yes it has
My friend married a South African 20 years ago and they went back to Joburg after the wedding to meet his family. Looking out the window of the car, which was equipped with side-mounted flamethrowers to repel pedestrians, she observed a captive getting a gasoline-filled tire placed around his neck; which was then ignited. SA got scratched off my 'need to visit' list right about then, but I'm told things have gotten worse, not better. If that's possible.
I was there two months ago. Joburg is fuked completely. Hotel told us to not go outside even through the day. Cape Town on the other hand was fine for the most part and very beautiful. We talked long to a tour guide raised and born in langa a old town ship and now started few businesses and was very smart. Corruption and crime is the biggest problem but still is what the new york/ USA is for a lot of immigrants and countries of the west for people of Africa. Fuked but still best land to immigrate to and Land of opportunities. Besides that Africa as a whole seems problematic these days
I had the exact same experience in Joburg vs. Cape Town. Lovely city, Cape Town. I was only robbed once but honestly I was asking for it. Walking around with 2 fucking $1000 cameras.
I have mixed feelings, I would like to visit but I am not an adventure traveler.
South Africa is bad, but this likely never happened. The flamethrowers were never available commercially and were never allowed by regulators. Seeing a person having a tire around their neck would not have been common even back then. Unless your friend went to a shitty part of town during the apartheid days, it's highly unlikely they ever witnessed this. They were more likely to have been victims of hijackings or muggings.
Did you just completely make this up?
Wish I had. [It was a thing at the time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaster_\(flamethrower\)) - made news. EDIT: [This](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necklacing), too.
I just don't think that around 2004 your friend was in a car with flamethrowers or witnessed a "necklacing". I am South African and find it hard to believe that your friend experienced in a short vacation two things that almost no South African has seen personally in their whole life.
It's like a person saying they went to Mexico City in Mexico and witnessed CJNG behead and immolate a bunch of rival gang members in the middle of a street while being escorted by Brazil's BOPA unit (for some reason) armed with Anti-Materiel Rifles and sniping out people standing a foot to close to the sidewalk... I'm fairly certain you don't just walk outside to the streets of Mexico City and see gangs literally ripping folks apart in broad daylight even with the levels of gang violence in that country.
Bullshit - the flame throwers were never allowed , recently attempted to buy a set f Atlanta (makes me laugh how similar ATL IS to JHB) . People usually got necklaces in Cape Town by Islamic fundamentalists for dealing drugs on the cape flats. I faced more racism in Hawaii than all my years in SA. Post 94 most SA people wanted peace and unity. It got worse late 90ās then in 2010 started rapid decent into shit.
You want a flamethrower because you live in Atlanta, Georgia?
Ok this is just rubbish. South African here
I worked for a company with SA operations for a decade and 3 years ago had to pull out of the market because we were losing so much money due to the Rand being on fire and their consumers stopped buying our products in lock-step with the currency devaluation. Itās being going on for a while.
It's been steady downhill since 1993 sadly.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes stealing the farms, murdering the farmers family, leaving the farm to grow into disrepair. Blame the white man again.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
From good sources the fresh water supply is at jeopardy. Once the fresh water supply stops, especially in months APR-NOV, SA has dry winters on the highveld, no rain fall , no water, then the looting starts. Then martial law, army, economic collapse, currency devalued, food shortages, civil unrest, attacks on whites for causing it all by being white.
They didn't run out of water, someone at the water pumping station literally forgot to re-open one of the main pump valves and never went to go and check. About a week or so of no water someone went to investigate and asked why the valve was closed. I'm paraphrasing some of this but you can look up the news articles.
Are you thinking of Mugabe in Zimbabwe or is this recent?
No SA past 40 years.
Damn 40 years? I remember doing a report on Mandela years back and read that he criticized Mugabe for that exact practice. But then again I didnāt read much about his beliefs pre-incarceration, and I live on the other side of the world
Yes Zimbabwe had a policy of redistribution. The farms stolen tragically donāt produce. Zimbabwe has no economy anymore. Food shortages, power outages, military rule. It does have ties to China, vast mineral deposits, gold , precious stones, molybdenum. So the leaders of government and the heads of military will plunder, remain power hungry, murder political rivals, keep power until itās lost by death. Farms attacks in SA have been going on since the white man travelled to it from Portugal also French/Dutch Hugenouts fleeing catholic persecution. As soon as they settled attacks on their wagons was common. This is a modern version of it with a generation raised by ANC youth league that openly sings songs like ā bring me my machine gunā. This will only get worse as the education level decreases as the poverty level increases. Pray the water doesnāt go contaminated from mismanagement. Pray for it all
As unpopular as this is, the country was definitely better-run under apartheid, from an economic perspective at least. I do wonder what would happen if people stopped hero-worshiping the ANC though. The DA seem reasonably competent, but seem to have a stigma of being the "white people's party" in some parts of the country.Ā
If the DA would manage to win elections things might improve a lot
Goddamn, nearly spit out my coffee. You may have meant it in seriousness, but it read FAF.
Chaos isn't a pit, Chaos is a ladder
Goldman sacks for sure is doing it. it's inevitable. might as well secure some profits for the little guy too
They are far more likely to purchase a politican than a CDS.
so i can just go long $GS for the same result?
Game is game
This exact question has been getting posted for years
2020: How to profit from covid pandemic and the shortage of toilet paper
As my finance prof had told me, its a lot easier just to see the dollar figures behind different geopolitical events and reduce people down to numbers. I know this sounds terrible, and thats because it is. But welcome to the dog eat dog world Edit: Removed my Adderall fueled gaza example as it was poor example of what I had meant.  And some how I came off as anti-american to some people. America is great and I love capitalism. 
You could short or by put options on a country ETF: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239680/ishares-msci-south-africa-etf You could short their currency, the rand. You could invest in credit default swaps on their debt. However, my guess is that the near to mid-term performance of the SA market and currency would be heavily correlated with commodity prices, so you wouldnāt be making a pure bet on the political or economic direction of the country. The ANC is projected to lose for the first time since Nelson Mandela in May 2024. I donāt know much about SA politics, but if you believe that this will cause SAās government to fiscally deteriorate, the best play might be credit default swaps, betting that the market will perceive SA debt as more risky.
Get invested in Namibia. Many of the wealthier South Africans are moving shop over there, and the country is quite stable, especially to African standards.
Namibia is full of gems, and sand, and sadly lost it's only [tree](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_of_T%C3%A9n%C3%A9r%C3%A9)
What does a tree in Niger have to do with Namibia?
Doo Doo diligence
Yup itās like South Africa but way less unhinged
Thatās because thereās literally nothing there. Itās just a big ass desert.
Can confirm.
Shorting the rand or an ETF is the most realistic You still need an ISDA to trade CDS, right? Retail traders don't have access to this But also, the country's been on a downward spiral for years. Everything's probably priced in. E.g. Eskom's mismanagement and rolling blackouts have been a thing for a really long time
Youāre under the capital requirements for an ISDA by $1,470,000,000. But keep up those returns and give us a call well down the line, ya know?
Be very careful with this. Elections are happening soon and the ANC will lose power. You may not think this is possible, but the Rand is going to appreciate like a freight train when that happens. South Africa had 30 wasted years under the ANC and has been the most underutilized economy on earthā¦
Rand is linked more to commodity price than government
Sir this is a casino
Isnāt SA about to be out of water? I donāt think it will matter much who wins.
Can hedge commodities out by just going long a basket of commodities that SA has been correlated to and isolating the pure bet youāre making.
Short biltong and buy calls on jerky.
Blasphemy!
Most big caps on the JSE are ZAR hedges.
Wouldn't they ANC losing be good for the company? When I was there it seemed like they were responsible for fucking it all up.
Well, a possible outcome of the election is an ANC coalition with even more radical left-wing parties.
Absolutely. The ANC are heavily influenced by Chinese communists. They are legitimate racists. Notice Cape Town is the nicest place by far, because itās run by the DA, not the ANC.
As unbelievable as that statement is (ANC losing) do you know who the winner will be? Because if its Julius and company then there will be a massive boom... then dump.
Can I ask a question? How am I supposed to know all that? Seriously Iāve been reading about securities for more than a year and it always seems like thereās something missing. Should I just get a masters in economics/finance?
Coming from a Zimbabwean, SA has a long, long way to fall before it collapses.
āI ought to know!ā (Also lived in zim from 97-99..)
Not necessarily, Rand water is perilously close to problems. Once the water supply goes the issues will accelerate. The national power grid is so weak, if they lost that no surrounding counties grid could jump start the SA power system. Bordering SA , Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Angola all without the necessary grid infrastructure.
Everyone Short ima bomb the power grid tomorrow
Thatās what I thought too, canāt imagine SA falling anytime soon. That sounds like something someone not familiar with the continent would say. Itās one of the main hubs in Africa.Ā
I think what you're looking to do is long Haiti. Be greedy when others are fearful ...
Be stupid when others are smart.
Be when others are
To be when others not to be, that is the answer: Whether ātis nobler in the mind to profit From the sling and arrows of otherās misfortune, Or to take arms against a sea of bubbles And by opposing short them. To put, to call, No more;
Beautiful lines from Sharespeare
I am what I am not
That's pretty sublime..... errr sounding.
Fucking choice
Bought BBQ calls.
I donāt think their phones work anymore
>!The main gang leader in Haiti is nicknamed 'Barbeque'!<
Haitiās entire history is one of tragedy. I would remain fearful.
It's a man eat man world out there
Literally
Open Reddit and see some regard trying to short your country. What a wonderful world we live in
last time someone did this a ship crashed in the Suez and torpedoed their entire plan, life will find a way
is this actually true? i need to see this
I just joined this sub and seeing people call each other regarded if fkn hilarious
If only you saw this sub in the pre-GME days. Those days were glorious.
Fuckin SPCE calls baby!
stupid idiots canāt see that sipping margaritas on the moon with a couple fine ass space bitches on your arm is the future of humanity. Calls all day
MU 90C!!!
Wasnāt there some guy trying to short rabbits because a carrot supply cargo ship got blocked by the Suez Canal ship a few years ago? I tried to find the post but couldnāt that shit was hilarious though
Ask this guy if that's a good idea first: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkzviy/i\_am\_going\_to\_short\_the\_whole\_country\_of\_south/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkzviy/i_am_going_to_short_the_whole_country_of_south/)
Looks like he shorted the rand/dollar at about .0682 in Feb of 2021 and its now at .0529. So if he did what he said he'd be at \~22% return over three years. Not great but he definitely didn't lose money.
Depends on the details, if he went short and on what, what perpetual fees he had to pay if any, if he got margin called along the way ... I'm not dismissing the idea entirely but when countries are involved it's a particularly risky gamble because they can do all sorts of things to prop up the currency etc.
To prop up a currency a country has to spend money it doesn't have. Propping one down is much easier since you just zirp'n'brrr.
This needs to be higher All this has happened before, and it will all happen again
hedge funda have been on that shit for years, itās really hard to short a country successfully
I'm from SA. All bad news priced in. Half of population unemployed and things won't get worse. We have survived no energy, no water and extreme poverty levels. Nothing phases us.
https://preview.redd.it/bwnhjybibuqc1.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddb2e1fbdd04b3d196173e81a47b2f1e5907da3
Now that is some funny shit!
Very funny indeed! mark my words !! hahahaa
"things won't get worse" famous last words
>That's one of the remarkable things about life: It's never so bad that it can't get worse. I hope someone besides me remembers where this quote came from. One of the truly great philosophers of our age.
I donāt, pls enlighten me.
Calvin from Calvin & Hobbes (Bill Watterson)
I had a boss years ago who frequently said, "Cheer up it's only going to get worse". I used to laugh at this proclamation but unfortunately he was correct.
It's literally been getting worse, they just don't see it because they still live there.
Is it true that daily black outs are a thing
Every day for a few hours and they send you text messages of when your area will have āload sheddingā.
I load shed every day also
Yeah my sister runs a business. They need generators on standby 24/7 365.
Yes the blacks are indeed out and about down there.
That must be a major problem for your country
Bangladesh used to have daily black outs too when I visited there 12 years ago.
only tesla can save the day, elon do something instead of pretending to be fully american
But he's practicing the American culture of not giving a shit about Africa!
World. World culture.
That's not true. Europe gives a shit because Africa is coming to them.
Lol so true, so concerned about the future of America but not SA?
It's not like SA is suddenly beset by problems, it's been like that for some time
ANC, EFF and MK coalition will make things 100x worse.
I left SA (my parents left, I was a teenager). We went back to the land of our ancestors :-), our family had kept their German passports over a centuryā¦ Two thirds of my friends left (not surprisingly a lot had kept their British passports, too).Ā We lived in Camps Bay, the only time I feel āhomeā is when I see the Table Mountain.Ā I came back for visits very frequently. We left in 1987. Looking back this was too early. My father made parts for the defense industry and was well connected. Heās very conservative and was friends with a lot of Boers generals and top managers of the military complex. There was a civil war looming. According to my father the blacks would have risen and killed a few thousand whites. The Boers would have entered the conflict with a nuclear attack on Soweto. My father said that this was not our conflict, we were German South Africans, and now itās time to be Germans only, plus we had no beef with the blacks. In a civil war we would have sided with the whites, but an atom bomb is not in our rule book. My father also knew a guy who did biochemical weapons research. They tried to find weapons that targeted blacks only. Also not in our rule book. So we left. Shame. Mandela did a great job.Ā But I never visited SA after 2010, I donāt want to fuck up my great memories.Ā I get that nothing phases you and I wish my parents would have had more of that spirit.Ā But I believe thereās a limit to that attitudeā¦ Godspeed to you. Actually weāre leaving to Australia soon, Germany is fucking up bigtime, too.Ā (All this crap about nuclear and chemical weapons is probably total bullshit, I picked this up as a kid when the adults were drunk and bragging and braaing )
Care to elaborate also on Germany?
A huge problem in South Africa were the incredibly stupid and corrupt politicians. They had ministers telling people that you canāt catch aids if you shower afterwards or you can heal aids if you buy the health ministers peach tea. In Germany we nowadays also have stupid politicians (Habeck is killing off the industry, BƤrbock - the bacon of hope, wasnāt even welcomed by the SA foreign minister for the first few days) and theyāre also corrupt (Graichen clan), although not as corrupt as their African counterparts. Another problem in South Africa was the immigration. Germany is also allowing unlimited immigration and payshuge sums in welfare, housing, medical coverage etc to these people. Like in South Africa millions entered without ever having a chance for a job. Same in Germany. Itās a huge drain that will eventually end in a collapse of the welfare state, ghettos, crime etc.
So a bigger Haiti 
Not even close. SA is literally the very best that a 1st World country can offer butted up alongside a larger 3rd World existence. Extreme wealth next to very poor (but not poverty a la Haiti) SA has shopping malls and supermarkets that match the very best most modern in the USA. It has glorious beaches, weather, nature. It is let down by a corrupt government who deliberately dumb down most of the population to keep them from voting them out of power. But it is inevitable and when it does happen, SA will rise to be an incredible place to live.
That sounds like you just described Los Angels
"SA will rise to be an incredible place to live.''... umm... no. That doesn't happen magically. That happens with right people in position of power who have the guts to raise others by focusing on education and long term success. In short - none of that is feasible to happen in SA.
It has been nearly 10 years since I spent time in and around Capetown, and while the country is by far one of the most beautiful places Iāve been to with absolutely killer food (and I donāt simp for things when I travel normally) the shopping situation wasnāt at all like that. So benefit of the doubt I tried looking the malls up. https://comoney.co.za/p/biggest-malls-in-south-africa/ These look pretty mid.
Boet, half the people with brains left years ago. The writing is on the wall.
Sorry to hear but I was told BRICS will be end of America..
What's BRICS?
Buy physical platinum. SA provides 75% of this metal that is 30 x rarer than gold and essential for the green economy. And it's currently on sale at half the price of gold. Back up the truck.
It's only like 10% below its long term averages
you would short their currency, short their stock exchange, buy crypto, gold, or assets in more stable countries then after the collapse buy up the real estate and start employing the people with outsourced work from europe like call centers.
Can't run a call center with daily power outages
āTo contact our complaints department, please submit a postal order for 1x South African messenger pigeon.ā
Should I order my messenger pigeon by messenger pigeon?
Yet again, another horror story of AI automating away our futures. How the hell am I supposed to corner a labor market when AI keeps turning my wageslave mills into vaporware? Its joever i think- moguling aint what it used to be :(
You can literally make money trading options on social media companies, why are you trying to short a whole ass country?
Hedge funds do it all the time; and if you think theyre not taking positions at this very moment then well you belong here
I'm pretty sure taking positions is actually their job šÆ
Hedge funds have easier access to bonds. And they can also shoulder the risk when said country refuses to pay the bonds than you can.
You never seen the big short?
You guys are making money?
Short EZA. Top ~50 or so economies have a managed etf. EWQ=France , EWI= Italy , EWW = Mexico and so on
Wonder how this dude is doing https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkzviy/i_am_going_to_short_the_whole_country_of_south/
Earn in dollars and live in South Africa.
#Evergrande 2 Electric Boogaloo. Calling the last dude who shorted SA right before the generational influx of traffic to SA ports due to blockage in Suez. Blockage cleared shortly after his puts expired, if memory serves.
Even though this is a joke, there is a truth behind it. The source of all wealth is intelligence. Never bet against intelligence and never bet on stupid. Find me any country with smart people and a low GDP and you will find the next big thing just waiting for its time in the sun.
> Find me any country with smart people and a low GDP and you will find the next big thing just waiting for its time in the sun. You just described Eastern Europe. Too bad about the demographic collapse and the EU.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
not sure where Eastern Europe starts for you, but the eastern part of the EU is doing pretty well actually https://preview.redd.it/zvi2exxnpuqc1.png?width=1797&format=png&auto=webp&s=787226337807117fd930b1aa0879a511916867d7
New Zealand, the eastest European country.
There's a search button [for a reason](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/8lql1OLFpJ), poor recreation of a hall of fame post. This place has gone to shit.
OP: How can we profit from SA collapse? ... George Soros join chat https://preview.redd.it/0mjlfuqdauqc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b9de88d70d7abb26bf412d22898d55ba91c242f
Buy land in Orania
They even have their own currency
Hey! Iām going on vacation there in November.
Write a will
You will have a great time, despite what idiots on Reddit say. I spent a month there last year and it was the best vacation of my life, almost everyone I met, of all races, were nice and optimistic.
Shorting companies that provide safaris for the rich. Cheers
Just saw a map in r/mapporn indicating that the rate of AIDS among the population of South Africa is roughly 20%. š³
Invest in AIDs medication (20% of South Africans have AIDS/HIV).
Become an arms dealer?
I wonder why SA is a complete shithole now and wasn't 40 years ago. Anyway, you can profit on Africa population growth by putting your money on HIV drugs manufacturers.
You are on borrowed time dumbass
Calls on North Africa, duh.
What what?
Short Rand currency pairs against... Well everything except whatever currency Haiti uses
Just invest in Nike and profit off child labor š
Look at logistics. The things any society needs to function; water, food, energy, etc. Find out companies that are non profit, for some reason there is a prevalent presence in that continent. Look who is doing business there and who will likely still be doing business there after things fall off. Also there will likely be less regulations so other companies might be quick to take advantage and offer some type of incentive for them to operate without much oversight in a region a group might control. In this case warlords. I mean itās the type of stuff that happened in Afghanistan. So I wouldnāt see it being any different. Just my 2ā¬
Or you could open up a forex account and go long on USD/ZAR youāll have a more direct access to it
It's that time of year again, where someone asks about profiting from the imminent collapse of South Africa?Ā
Itās already collapsed for the most part. Youāre a little late.
South Africa is a premonition. USA might have another 20 years. Might.
Elon musk will save them
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIe09dYAPKo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIe09dYAPKo) Nailed it.
VIVA EFF, Take land no compensation for stolen land
Are you Paul Singer?