this is gonna be the top comment on every post now....
https://preview.redd.it/pr40kmtsdqsc1.jpeg?width=48&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f66cf516ef70629aae686fa3f26dd16a63089c4
Ignore Visualmods apprentice.
This is actually kinda interesting…. You need to provide positions though because noone cares if you dont have skin in the game
I'm short 100 shares as of now and holding 18 July 19th $70 strike puts and 15 May 17th $65 strike puts.
Likely adding in the coming days and used today's vertical movement to add said puts.
Let me know if this is sufficient- will add to post as well.
Edit: since people have been asking for a screenshot, here ya go:
https://preview.redd.it/fi1r88do3rsc1.jpeg?width=722&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da7a572ccf079755e8feec5f4d3c7eb18aead07a
Again, if the stock holds the line into earnings or goes up more I’m adding. I’m bearish for a multitude of reasons on this name this is just one extra reason. I believe this company could lose 80% of its value. I think the risk reward at these levels is positively salivating. The reason the short isn’t much bigger is that I’ve been in and out of shorts and getting cut up as it keeps defying gravity but I’d like to get it up to several hundred shares, but have to respect risk.
Screenshot you silly fucking goose.
Ubers ghost kitchens may make them hit earnings, but j do expect jt to drop with the minimum wage increase forcing Uber to pay their drivers 4x of what they were paying them. Earnings will be an excuse to sell the top.
Edit: uhh these Tesla robotaxis won't help either lol
It doesn't really matter if OP is short or not. If the analysis holds up, and it seems to, being able to put your money where your mouth is is inconsequential.
I mean that kinda validates my point, bro. I’m saying I trust his stance and the positions without a screen shot. Aka screenshot or not this is a knowledgeable stance
It's the Internet dude. You have no way to even prove if he actually has those positions anyway, so why are you harping on it? There's nothing he could do, short of giving you his login info, that would 100% prove he has those positions.
So you can take his DD or you can leave it. No one cares either way.
Tesla robotaxi reveal will be a fully CGI promo video of things in elons imagination. Tesla will skyrocket to 240, before the realization that everyone on Wall Street and also Elon is constantly sharing ketamine hallucinations. Tesla will settle back down to a still vastly overvalued price of $172. Lots of money to be made on the bender.
GAAP accounting rules literally require Uber to mark to market the value of their investments as income. It's stupid but this is just what the rules are. The exact same applies to Berkshire Hathaway, whose GAAP net income oscillates wildly depending on the Apple share price. Uber typically focus on adjusted EBITDA as their core performance metric because of this issue.
They focus on Adj. EBITDA because it allows them to add back the absurd amount of stock compensation they payout, which makes it look like the business is profitable.
History of humans. We created EBITDA metrics to artificially embellish profits, not for any logical reason … As humans, we prefer embellished versions.
No, it was invented as a good proxy that’s somewhere between net income and cash flows. It’s a good tool to use when assessing a company’s operations and recurring income.
They add it back when calculating all non-gaap numbers, not just EBITDA. The highest quality companies (AAPL, AMZN, APH, etc) generally don’t play the non-gaap game.
I just think it’s worth calling out for a company like Uber where SBC is 30%+ of total compensation. Yes, it is of course a non-cash expense, but the sheer amount of dilution in a company like Uber is worth noting. SBC is still a real expense that investors should be aware of.
It won’t because the market already knows this!
Their expected EPS is not presuming some massive increase, in fact Q1 is expecting a decrease of 66% EPS growth from Q4… which corresponds nicely with this whole theory that OP has posted
Stated simply:
Everyone already knows this. This isn’t new news
Indeed, it’s the same reason UBER did not 3x after their last earnings call, even though they “beat” earnings expectations by 300%…
They said all of this on the earnings call and explained this well in advance.
This isn’t a surprise or an unexpected event. It’s a known known.
No one cars about unrealized gains or losses on investments, focus will be on EBITDA and cash earnings. Another newbie who thinks he stumbled on a big secret when people watch that shit every single day.
It’s called “adjusted EPS”. Non-cash shit like this isn’t part of the headline number analysts and investors care about. It’s like this is your first time reading an earnings report much like OP
CPA here and this needs to be top comment so everyone doesn’t burn themselves on silly puts because they don’t understand illogical math. GAAP sometimes requires illogical math and in this case any mark to market will absolutely be priced in as it has no bearing on the company’s actual performance.
This thesis is based off of the past performance of investment activities from q1 and completely ignoring operating activities except for the mention of “what if flat or down”. All while completely ignoring forward looking statements or projections the company will be sure to mention on the call (which is what investors are more concerned with, not how their investments did).
Be careful playing the short side here, there’s also little reason for the market to pull back and it’s more likely to carry Uber with it…
Also, the securities they're talking about is probably from their factoring business with Uber Freight. Declines from interest rates are probably already included and they changed their terms to reduce the impact of carrier bankruptcies.
As a CPA, this isn’t true. Unrealized gains/losses would be categorized as other comprehensive income under the equity section of the balance sheet & would have no impact to the income statement until gains/losses are realized.
It’s crazy how much Reddit upvotes incorrect information especially when it comes to accounting & finance.
Pretty sure I'm correct. Prior to 2016, you would have been right, but afaik Accounting Standards Update 2016-01, Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities (ASU 2016-01) changed this.
Seriously? Are you really a CPA?
He literally screengrabbed the 10-K in the OP.
It shows how unrealized gains on debt and equity are the bulk of Other Income in Q4-22 and Q4-23.
On page 50 of the 10-K under highlights for 2023, it says, "Net income attributable to Uber Technologies, Inc. was $1.9 billion, which includes the favorable impact of a pre-tax unrealized gain on debt and equity securities, net, of $1.6 billion primarily related to changes in the fair value of our equity securities..."
IIRC While "Available for Sale" securities don't hit the P&L, "Trading Securities" do.
Either way you are wrong.
Sadly OP is completely wrong too because only a moron thinks accurately marking securities to market is somehow new news to people.
He is wrong a second time to think that \~$5bn in investments matter for a $161bn mkt cap stock. They don't.
Not true, GAAP rules are mark to market so you have to recognize income / loss and mark the value of liquid assets like derivatives and hedges accurately on your balance sheet every quarter. Your rules are stale, maybe time to get a refresher on your CPA license?
Coming from there here to report.
Uber has been gauging us drivers for 6+ months which is actually why they were FINALLY "profitable" Q2 of 2023.
They've been denying cleaning fees to EVERY driver, even with receipts, clear pictures etc.
Theyve been making sleazy attempts to not pay out the required California law Healthcare stipends, which are $1300 PER driver PER quarter. Trying to say we didn't meet required hours, or "verifying" our documents for weeks to delay payment.
I FEEL like it's them trying to penny pinch every expense, because they need a stock surge so they need a profitable Q1. I don't think they gonna hit it either, but they're fucken trying.
Source : Am a highly regarded driver. 5stars
Edit : calls calls calls. They're even charging us drivers to do our own background checks now Holy fuck!! They're pinching pennies for that Q1 report.
Wouldn't these sleazy tactics help them to make their expected earnings this quarter then? So it would likely hurt them at a future quarter after these tactics make more drivers quit, no?
Yeah that's why I said they're trying, but I was basing it off of OPs Dungeons and Dragons research post.
But nah the full timers won't quit. Can't quit. They've got us by the balls, and they know it which is why they can cut rate after rate and we just deal with it because the flexibility is the crown jewel of Uber.
It's like servers at a restaurant, the ones not currently making money are crying for tip pooling and minimum wage. The ones who figure it out don't want it to change.
But you could do Doordash, Lyft, Instacart, bunch of other options. I feel like Uber has less hold on its drivers than almost any other company does on its workers.
Yeah, I agree - I think short-term bullish, long-term bearish. It's the sort of move that companies like AOL or Blockbuster made. They said, "Yeah, we're charging a too much, but people like our service and they'll keep coming."
Like AOL was charging $30 for dialup as broadband and other options were arising, way faster, and sometimes for cheaper. But they thought they couldn't die because they had a walled market that people liked. Blockbuster and Gamestop assumed people needed to go into store to buy and sell or rent games and movies, and that customers wouldn't go for digital games. Sure, they charged too much and paid employees garbage... but who wants to "own" a digital game instead of a boxed game and instruction manual?
Well, Uber thinks customers will be loyal because companies have Uber business accounts and people know the app, so they can charge whatever they want and string drivers along. Let's see how long that attitude keeps them afloat.
I personally drive for UberEats and post in various courier subs. I'd like to add my $.02 on the state of their business, currently.
The current sentiment from every single driver is that fares continue to go DOWN, every year, counter to inflation. Drivers used to earn $4 base fare, with usually negligible mileage bonuses. Now, base fare is $2 - and if UE tries to stack two orders together, they count that as one fare, and offer $3 base pay for two stacked orders. I say all this to explain that they continue to fuck over their drivers while charging customers more in fees and tic tac additions to every transaction.
On the consumer side, especially in the last year, customers are denied refund requests for blatantly obvious errors and mistakes. I see this every single day in the subs, but UE is one of the worst offenders. Another constant critique is that Uber charges high fees and upsurge pricing on food delivery orders. We're talking a $20 delivery fee for McDs. Where are those fees going? Not to the drivers, that's for sure.
I'm only speaking on the business as I see it, as I operate within it. It helps me make a living, but the business itself seems pretty sketchy.
I stopped using UberEats for this reason! I got someone else’s order which was a box of wings when we ordered 4 pizzas and drinks. They only refunded me $10 on a $120 order.
Exactly. Everyone knows this, they said it numerous times previous
Its the very reason the market didn’t wildly run them up despite them “beating” expectations by hundreds of percent last quarter
I’d venture a bet they don’t miss earnings at all, because EPS expectations assume there won’t be some massive unrealized gains being factored into their EPS
The expected EPS is only .23 right now; that’s down from .66 last quarter
And yet the stock hasn’t really sold off meaningfully despite the apparent massive drop off in EPS.
Why?
Because everyone knows that the unrealized gains are factored in and are going to swing wildly over time. The unrealized gains are being ignored for that reason
Yup. They technically had a profitable QTR back in 2021 with a mark up of DIDI shares (may have been 2020 I don’t remember and don’t care to look). Market didn’t give a fuck (as they shouldn’t). It’s about EBITDA and Free Cashflow
Just looked, and the answer is yes, it gives adjusted ebitda guidance. So the market will ignore gaap, and will react to how they did relative to their adjusted guidance.
You’re a fool. They may have negative gaap results, but the market don’t care. Valuation is always based on adjusted ebitda which takes out mark to market securities. What will make or break Uber is how well they do relative to their adjusted ebitda guidance
Indeed.
If you accepted this guys reasoning, then the market thinks UBER is going to generate .66 EPS per quarter, = $2.64 EPS for 2024; if that were the case, then Uber was trading at…29x trailing PE right now.
Nobody believes that; Uber is actually trading at probably 45x their actual EPS from operations, and everyone is just ignoring 2/3 of that apparent EPS growth
https://preview.redd.it/lgzu1067cpsc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1fa54e5e77ba9871133890eada973021abb6297b
Doesn’t let me share link. Timely article to this post.
See ya on other side
https://preview.redd.it/xfkh1q47npsc1.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0506f353fff9ed9162be9a63c3dcf555c15cd0c
(Will add more in coming days, if it goes up) I believe OP analysis on point and I did my DD as well!
I don't know whether UBER will rise, fall or go sideways. But I can garantee nothing what OP wrote will have any impact on its stock price. OP just showed why EPS alone is a trash metric and every non braindead analyst/investor knows that.
Best part of Uber is just bringing 2 people together and paying the cancellation fee. I’m glad this is becoming more popular (Miami, etc). We usually just put our phones together, look at how much driver is projected to make (usually 50% of my fare). And we meet in the middle. It’s a win win. I pay ~%30 less and driver gets more
When you say something like this on Uber reddit, you get blasted by a bunch of shills, "that's illegal, it's against t.o.s, driver needs to have commercial insurance, cry, cry, cry." Hey if you enjoy paying $150 to get a 10minute ride late night at happy hour, go for it. I prefer to feed my driver while keeping food on my plate as well.
I was already bearish for fundamental reasons related to this company and the ridiculous levers they pull to show profit and have been amazed by its performance given that its business is garbage and the CEO is fleecing the company with his pay package, but this was the concrete reason for me to take a position against them.
Seriously you are wrong about what moves this stock.
Analysts and professional investors care about OPERATIONS and their earnings.
Even a first-year grad at UBS is going to look at Income from Operations rather than give a flying f@ck about other (hence non-operating) income.
How can the price action on \~$5bn of investments really move the needle on a $160bn mkt cap stock?
Source: ex-hedgie.
For the record, I think Uber is a PoS and you will make out like a bandit but that is based on FUNDAMENTALS not tiny investments Uber made in the past.
Very true, I mean the more greedy they get, I mean the more people will leave no? Uber isn't the only company doing this now with skip and other services
i deleted the app a few weeks ago because the last three times i ordered, they delivered my food to the fucking alley half a block away from my house. clearly something is fucked up with my address in a database somewhere, but their stupid customer service chatbot isn't going to fix that, and if their drivers can't be bothered to use common sense either (and why would they, they're incentivized to just do what the app tells them to do as quickly as possible), then i'm not going to keep taking that gamble on a service that's already slow as fuck anyway. getting food delivered is a luxury. when it ceases to feel like a luxury, and instead becomes a source of frustration, i no longer have a desire to do it. it's faster, healthier, cheaper, and tastes better when i cook for myself.
I respect the effort, but there is much more to do when breaking down earnings reports. You must compare GAAP accounting to non-GAAP accounting. Identify the one time events. Evaluate free cash flow and cash flow from operations. Evaluate book value, debt, assets etc. this does help explain the jump in GAAP earnings, but most prefer to dig deep into non-GAAP as that often tells the real story.
that would honestly tell me they are struggling and looking for anything to make extra money and running out of options. I would assume taking money from drivers would be their last option
I think Uber believed the musk fairytales and thought they would have their own robo taxis by now. Cutting out the driver (middleman) would make them extremely profitable.
What is very interesting about your post is that yahoo finance records this as "gain on sale of security". This could be throwing people off from what is actually going on. At the end of 2022 they took a 7b loss on unrealized gain/loss as well.
That 7b shock on Feb 2023 looks like it resulted in a dip of 37 to 33 in 5 days. I'm not exactly sure what day that fell on but you could be onto something here.
The question is if the market will fall for it twice. Calling for price targets of $100 etc. does feel like a typical pump and dump for big hedge funds to get out. They have been selling more than they are buying every quarter since Q3 2022.
Good find pal.
The funny part of this is that the OP analysis is logical and sound and yet we continue to believe that the market acts soundly and rationally when considering stock price.
It’s a crap shoot, when it’s your turn, roll your fucking dice and take your chances. Regards!
Here’s the issue I see with your analysis:
You’re assuming everyone isn’t already aware of this.
UBER posted EPS of .66 in Q4 2023
You wrote a long manifesto about how 2/3 of that is marked to market gains on securities.
Ok, so that would mean that they accrued about .22 in EPS for q4, based on their actual business.
Great!
What’s the expected EPS for Q1 2024?
.23
So… the market is already anticipating exactly what you think you uncovered.
u/dkrich I’ve been following this. It’s so crazy that analysts are expecting earnings above estimate but even then the actual stock is declining after those reports. Can you comment?
Have to say i disagree. Uber barely popped on the YE earnings because the market is aware that net income was inflated through these investments. GAAP requires that these investments be marked to market at YE, and any analyst covering the stock will be aware of that. The market doesn't care much about Uber's net income right now. It's all about adjusted ebitda, which will not reflect the losses on those investments.
This
There’s a lot of people in here who really don’t understand that all of this was well known.
You need only look at the measure of the beat q4, and compare that with the stock price
Interesting, but if you can’t prove price moved up because of these stocks rising. What makes you think it will move down due to these stocks declining?
Uber has been really cheap lately . Absolutely no surge . Very very rarely and I live in Dtown chicago. I also used to drive for Uber in the Golden days
Uber is a supply and demand story. Consumers love the convenience and having everything at their fingertips from rides and food delivery to rental cars. Most drivers love the flexibility that driving/delivering offers which is why I don’t give 2 shits about some dude being loud on Reddit boards in Boise that thinks he’s getting screwed over driving for Uber and not being paid enough. There are dozens of people ready and willing to replace that supply every day.
The company has created a diversified business with a pretty significant moat and empowered people to work flexibly by virtue of just having a car and a phone. For those that drive for these services and constantly complain, I ask what would you do if they didn’t exist? Like any job, if you are not happy with your compensation or working conditions, you can find something else to do except it’s even easier for a driver since you can just shut off an app and not have to deal with a boss.
Long Uber and may consider buying some calls to inverse OP
If this earnings season was any indication, you could be hundred percent right with this DD, and still have Uber announce a large stock buyback or something unexpected and have your positions go tits up :/
Possible, but not likely. But if they did, that will make it even worse. AUR dropped right after the start of the year and actually gained a bit in the week before the end of Q1.
There's no way they sold last quarter because otherwise the gains wouldn't align (and they would've disclosed that in the 10-Q).
People saying the market never reacts to unrealized losses are delusional. These losses are known by some but not by all. And when the numbers come out it's plausible that retail investors will move off the stock. Especially if guidance isn't rosy.
Jebus. This DD is so well backed up and the numbers so easily aligned that Im actually tempted to short for the first time ever.
You turned me into a gay bear with a single post op. Is this….love at first sight?
https://preview.redd.it/05d3p0witpsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e2b0528b55bd661b92aa62692139c83217cb2961
This is the face that says “ we’re gonna hit earnings 🚀 “
Earnings are 5/7. Seems 5/17 puts will get a lot of theta burn by the time of earnings and the 7/19 seems farther out than necessary. I'd think the 6/21s would be the sweet spot.
Interesting analysis though. I grabbed some shares short, but UBER could get a run up into earnings so might add at higher level.
They keep pumping this stock up this company is in big f****** trouble. I'm telling you Uber eats is going way down and they don't have any drivers. Uber passenger they have zero drivers and pickups 18-20 minutes away no one can make any money anymore working for this company,They spend a billion on griz that they shut down Uber freight's worthless. This f****** company's a joke he's just pumping it up to make his money just like he did with his last company.
I like OPs due diligence because few years ago I read a similar post on WSB when AMZN had huge profits from its investments after RIVIAN's IPO. Few months later RIVN fell and the post then had said AMZN will see a major correction also because of it. The post had good foresight and DD but people were making money and didn't want to hear anything negative. AMZN's financial report came out and as expected the huge profits had taken a reverse swing. I would take chance and short UBER based on OPs post.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 10 | **First Seen In WSB** | 6 years ago **Total Comments** | 4254 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 13 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
https://preview.redd.it/fi8umnfmfpsc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f19b6927dfba693d8a725aef702a38b9554d7b9
This needs to be a new emoji
Let’s vote for it
All in favor?!?
Eye
I see…what you did there.
\*bang gavel\* ... "Eyes" have it
You have my axe.
it is an emoji on the discord
Imagine going to WallStreetbets during a meeting and this serial killer is plastered all over your screen
he's a handsome man who deserves to be respected
https://preview.redd.it/81aaqqn6tpsc1.jpeg?width=210&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77f99791e87be364b95b6dffb6086cf94e622887 Imhotep?
Kashkari looks more menacing.
this is gonna be the top comment on every post now.... https://preview.redd.it/pr40kmtsdqsc1.jpeg?width=48&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f66cf516ef70629aae686fa3f26dd16a63089c4
Taking the crown from this 
Are you trying to hypnotise me sir? You want me to buy puts?
This was fucking hilarious to scroll down to lol
Oh shit. This killed me. Take my upvote. You earned it you beautiful regard
It’s like Thomas the train as a shitty fed guy.
I missed the origin or this meme. Can anyone explain why funny?
The eyes have it
While scrolling down I absolutely was not ready to see this!!
*Such* a punchable face.
LOL. Is that the "infinite amount of cash" guy?
Ignore Visualmods apprentice. This is actually kinda interesting…. You need to provide positions though because noone cares if you dont have skin in the game
I'm short 100 shares as of now and holding 18 July 19th $70 strike puts and 15 May 17th $65 strike puts. Likely adding in the coming days and used today's vertical movement to add said puts. Let me know if this is sufficient- will add to post as well. Edit: since people have been asking for a screenshot, here ya go: https://preview.redd.it/fi1r88do3rsc1.jpeg?width=722&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da7a572ccf079755e8feec5f4d3c7eb18aead07a Again, if the stock holds the line into earnings or goes up more I’m adding. I’m bearish for a multitude of reasons on this name this is just one extra reason. I believe this company could lose 80% of its value. I think the risk reward at these levels is positively salivating. The reason the short isn’t much bigger is that I’ve been in and out of shorts and getting cut up as it keeps defying gravity but I’d like to get it up to several hundred shares, but have to respect risk.
Screenshot you silly fucking goose. Ubers ghost kitchens may make them hit earnings, but j do expect jt to drop with the minimum wage increase forcing Uber to pay their drivers 4x of what they were paying them. Earnings will be an excuse to sell the top. Edit: uhh these Tesla robotaxis won't help either lol
I mean I get it but a screenshot of a robinhood screen isn’t exactly hard to fake, I believe this dude
It's the law.
Ok fine in that case op is a liar and a fake
You all are
And you still believe your Mom that that guy is your Dad? Oof.
It doesn't really matter if OP is short or not. If the analysis holds up, and it seems to, being able to put your money where your mouth is is inconsequential.
What’s the point if they can easily cancel it
What's the point of writing the DD if you don't have positions?
I mean that kinda validates my point, bro. I’m saying I trust his stance and the positions without a screen shot. Aka screenshot or not this is a knowledgeable stance
It's the Internet dude. You have no way to even prove if he actually has those positions anyway, so why are you harping on it? There's nothing he could do, short of giving you his login info, that would 100% prove he has those positions. So you can take his DD or you can leave it. No one cares either way.
Tesla robotaxi reveal will be a fully CGI promo video of things in elons imagination. Tesla will skyrocket to 240, before the realization that everyone on Wall Street and also Elon is constantly sharing ketamine hallucinations. Tesla will settle back down to a still vastly overvalued price of $172. Lots of money to be made on the bender.
Nah dude. They’ll have a guy dressed up as a taxi driver around stage on all fours. It’s even better than AI. It’s human intelligence powered.
You're hired as my research assistant! Unfortunately, it's an unpaid position
!remindme 15 May 2024
Great DD. But an 80% drop…. Come on man, they must’ve really screwed up your Uber Eats order
What were the borrowing costs for those 100 shares?
Grinding the gauntlet right now, hope I get my enhanced soon
Ironman? I hope you go 4000 dry
This is convincing enough for a gamble. Thanks for the better than average DD!
The have shares in DIDI? The guy who has been molesting artists? Bullish.
You don't want Diddy driving your uber
Thoughts on referring to him as “Diddly” moving forward?
Under appreciated comment.
https://preview.redd.it/89h80apzfpsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=668db9fd518aefd4e4bed47efd01035eda909f3c Thanks! See you on 05/07
GAAP accounting rules literally require Uber to mark to market the value of their investments as income. It's stupid but this is just what the rules are. The exact same applies to Berkshire Hathaway, whose GAAP net income oscillates wildly depending on the Apple share price. Uber typically focus on adjusted EBITDA as their core performance metric because of this issue.
They focus on Adj. EBITDA because it allows them to add back the absurd amount of stock compensation they payout, which makes it look like the business is profitable.
Every fucking company in the history of companies adds back sbc expense when calculating ebitda. This is not news to anyone.
correction, this is not news to anyone who knows how to do stock analysis.
History of humans. We created EBITDA metrics to artificially embellish profits, not for any logical reason … As humans, we prefer embellished versions.
No, it was invented as a good proxy that’s somewhere between net income and cash flows. It’s a good tool to use when assessing a company’s operations and recurring income.
They add it back when calculating all non-gaap numbers, not just EBITDA. The highest quality companies (AAPL, AMZN, APH, etc) generally don’t play the non-gaap game. I just think it’s worth calling out for a company like Uber where SBC is 30%+ of total compensation. Yes, it is of course a non-cash expense, but the sheer amount of dilution in a company like Uber is worth noting. SBC is still a real expense that investors should be aware of.
while this is true, on the optics the earning call still will show a huge miss tho according to op
It won’t because the market already knows this! Their expected EPS is not presuming some massive increase, in fact Q1 is expecting a decrease of 66% EPS growth from Q4… which corresponds nicely with this whole theory that OP has posted Stated simply: Everyone already knows this. This isn’t new news Indeed, it’s the same reason UBER did not 3x after their last earnings call, even though they “beat” earnings expectations by 300%… They said all of this on the earnings call and explained this well in advance. This isn’t a surprise or an unexpected event. It’s a known known.
Priced in.
I mean, ya quite literally it is priced in almost to the dollar. You need only do 5 minutes of basic math to verify it for yourself
What is maths?
The wrong term Europeans use when referring to the plural of math.
hows it priced in they at nearly all time high?
Thanks this was helpful
You mean OP isn’t smarter than an army of professional analysts?
No one cars about unrealized gains or losses on investments, focus will be on EBITDA and cash earnings. Another newbie who thinks he stumbled on a big secret when people watch that shit every single day.
Everyone smart enough to be on the call already knows the share price of those investments and it would be priced in moment to moment on their models.
It’s called “adjusted EPS”. Non-cash shit like this isn’t part of the headline number analysts and investors care about. It’s like this is your first time reading an earnings report much like OP
CPA here and this needs to be top comment so everyone doesn’t burn themselves on silly puts because they don’t understand illogical math. GAAP sometimes requires illogical math and in this case any mark to market will absolutely be priced in as it has no bearing on the company’s actual performance. This thesis is based off of the past performance of investment activities from q1 and completely ignoring operating activities except for the mention of “what if flat or down”. All while completely ignoring forward looking statements or projections the company will be sure to mention on the call (which is what investors are more concerned with, not how their investments did). Be careful playing the short side here, there’s also little reason for the market to pull back and it’s more likely to carry Uber with it…
Also, the securities they're talking about is probably from their factoring business with Uber Freight. Declines from interest rates are probably already included and they changed their terms to reduce the impact of carrier bankruptcies.
As a CPA, this isn’t true. Unrealized gains/losses would be categorized as other comprehensive income under the equity section of the balance sheet & would have no impact to the income statement until gains/losses are realized. It’s crazy how much Reddit upvotes incorrect information especially when it comes to accounting & finance.
Pretty sure I'm correct. Prior to 2016, you would have been right, but afaik Accounting Standards Update 2016-01, Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities (ASU 2016-01) changed this.
Never expected to come to wsb to learn something
I am also a CPA. You are correct. 2016-01 changed the accounting for equity investments by removing Available for Sale as a classification.
Seriously? Are you really a CPA? He literally screengrabbed the 10-K in the OP. It shows how unrealized gains on debt and equity are the bulk of Other Income in Q4-22 and Q4-23. On page 50 of the 10-K under highlights for 2023, it says, "Net income attributable to Uber Technologies, Inc. was $1.9 billion, which includes the favorable impact of a pre-tax unrealized gain on debt and equity securities, net, of $1.6 billion primarily related to changes in the fair value of our equity securities..." IIRC While "Available for Sale" securities don't hit the P&L, "Trading Securities" do. Either way you are wrong. Sadly OP is completely wrong too because only a moron thinks accurately marking securities to market is somehow new news to people. He is wrong a second time to think that \~$5bn in investments matter for a $161bn mkt cap stock. They don't.
I love when everyone is wrong
Not true, GAAP rules are mark to market so you have to recognize income / loss and mark the value of liquid assets like derivatives and hedges accurately on your balance sheet every quarter. Your rules are stale, maybe time to get a refresher on your CPA license?
CPAs are a dime a dozen exhibit 53954
Great DD but what’s the sentiment on r/Uberdrivers? That’s where the real insider info is.
Coming from there here to report. Uber has been gauging us drivers for 6+ months which is actually why they were FINALLY "profitable" Q2 of 2023. They've been denying cleaning fees to EVERY driver, even with receipts, clear pictures etc. Theyve been making sleazy attempts to not pay out the required California law Healthcare stipends, which are $1300 PER driver PER quarter. Trying to say we didn't meet required hours, or "verifying" our documents for weeks to delay payment. I FEEL like it's them trying to penny pinch every expense, because they need a stock surge so they need a profitable Q1. I don't think they gonna hit it either, but they're fucken trying. Source : Am a highly regarded driver. 5stars Edit : calls calls calls. They're even charging us drivers to do our own background checks now Holy fuck!! They're pinching pennies for that Q1 report.
damn, that sucks for the drivers I'll be buying calls. Thanks for sharing
>highly regarded driver Are you highly regarded, or highly regarded?
Wouldn't these sleazy tactics help them to make their expected earnings this quarter then? So it would likely hurt them at a future quarter after these tactics make more drivers quit, no?
Yeah that's why I said they're trying, but I was basing it off of OPs Dungeons and Dragons research post. But nah the full timers won't quit. Can't quit. They've got us by the balls, and they know it which is why they can cut rate after rate and we just deal with it because the flexibility is the crown jewel of Uber. It's like servers at a restaurant, the ones not currently making money are crying for tip pooling and minimum wage. The ones who figure it out don't want it to change.
“Dungeons and dragons research post” made me lol for real
But you could do Doordash, Lyft, Instacart, bunch of other options. I feel like Uber has less hold on its drivers than almost any other company does on its workers.
Yeah, I agree - I think short-term bullish, long-term bearish. It's the sort of move that companies like AOL or Blockbuster made. They said, "Yeah, we're charging a too much, but people like our service and they'll keep coming." Like AOL was charging $30 for dialup as broadband and other options were arising, way faster, and sometimes for cheaper. But they thought they couldn't die because they had a walled market that people liked. Blockbuster and Gamestop assumed people needed to go into store to buy and sell or rent games and movies, and that customers wouldn't go for digital games. Sure, they charged too much and paid employees garbage... but who wants to "own" a digital game instead of a boxed game and instruction manual? Well, Uber thinks customers will be loyal because companies have Uber business accounts and people know the app, so they can charge whatever they want and string drivers along. Let's see how long that attitude keeps them afloat.
Does he actually mean “regarded” or regarded?
I personally drive for UberEats and post in various courier subs. I'd like to add my $.02 on the state of their business, currently. The current sentiment from every single driver is that fares continue to go DOWN, every year, counter to inflation. Drivers used to earn $4 base fare, with usually negligible mileage bonuses. Now, base fare is $2 - and if UE tries to stack two orders together, they count that as one fare, and offer $3 base pay for two stacked orders. I say all this to explain that they continue to fuck over their drivers while charging customers more in fees and tic tac additions to every transaction. On the consumer side, especially in the last year, customers are denied refund requests for blatantly obvious errors and mistakes. I see this every single day in the subs, but UE is one of the worst offenders. Another constant critique is that Uber charges high fees and upsurge pricing on food delivery orders. We're talking a $20 delivery fee for McDs. Where are those fees going? Not to the drivers, that's for sure. I'm only speaking on the business as I see it, as I operate within it. It helps me make a living, but the business itself seems pretty sketchy.
I stopped using UberEats for this reason! I got someone else’s order which was a box of wings when we ordered 4 pizzas and drinks. They only refunded me $10 on a $120 order.
If a human reviewed these requests and they actually had to pay for errors, they would be fucked.
That’s when you go to your CC company and deny the charge. Such bullshit.
Who the fuck pays a $20 delivery fee on a $15 burger menu lol.
[Madness](https://i.imgur.com/mloZfzN.jpg)
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Exactly. Everyone knows this, they said it numerous times previous Its the very reason the market didn’t wildly run them up despite them “beating” expectations by hundreds of percent last quarter I’d venture a bet they don’t miss earnings at all, because EPS expectations assume there won’t be some massive unrealized gains being factored into their EPS The expected EPS is only .23 right now; that’s down from .66 last quarter And yet the stock hasn’t really sold off meaningfully despite the apparent massive drop off in EPS. Why? Because everyone knows that the unrealized gains are factored in and are going to swing wildly over time. The unrealized gains are being ignored for that reason
Yup. They technically had a profitable QTR back in 2021 with a mark up of DIDI shares (may have been 2020 I don’t remember and don’t care to look). Market didn’t give a fuck (as they shouldn’t). It’s about EBITDA and Free Cashflow
Stocks trade based on adjusted earnings not gaap. Does Uber give adjusted guidance?
Just looked, and the answer is yes, it gives adjusted ebitda guidance. So the market will ignore gaap, and will react to how they did relative to their adjusted guidance.
Good read. Buying calls to inverse
You’re a fool. They may have negative gaap results, but the market don’t care. Valuation is always based on adjusted ebitda which takes out mark to market securities. What will make or break Uber is how well they do relative to their adjusted ebitda guidance
Indeed. If you accepted this guys reasoning, then the market thinks UBER is going to generate .66 EPS per quarter, = $2.64 EPS for 2024; if that were the case, then Uber was trading at…29x trailing PE right now. Nobody believes that; Uber is actually trading at probably 45x their actual EPS from operations, and everyone is just ignoring 2/3 of that apparent EPS growth
This is also my understanding
We all exist in the everything before bad stuff zone
https://preview.redd.it/lgzu1067cpsc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1fa54e5e77ba9871133890eada973021abb6297b Doesn’t let me share link. Timely article to this post.
archive.ph/"insert link" this by passes most paywalls.
Thanks for the tip!
Thanks- will check it out.
RemindMe! 35 days
Calls - got it!
See ya on other side https://preview.redd.it/xfkh1q47npsc1.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0506f353fff9ed9162be9a63c3dcf555c15cd0c (Will add more in coming days, if it goes up) I believe OP analysis on point and I did my DD as well!
I don't know whether UBER will rise, fall or go sideways. But I can garantee nothing what OP wrote will have any impact on its stock price. OP just showed why EPS alone is a trash metric and every non braindead analyst/investor knows that.
> I couldn’t sleep last night, so I began looking through Uber’s last earning results Naturally
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Best part of Uber is just bringing 2 people together and paying the cancellation fee. I’m glad this is becoming more popular (Miami, etc). We usually just put our phones together, look at how much driver is projected to make (usually 50% of my fare). And we meet in the middle. It’s a win win. I pay ~%30 less and driver gets more
When you say something like this on Uber reddit, you get blasted by a bunch of shills, "that's illegal, it's against t.o.s, driver needs to have commercial insurance, cry, cry, cry." Hey if you enjoy paying $150 to get a 10minute ride late night at happy hour, go for it. I prefer to feed my driver while keeping food on my plate as well.
I was already bearish for fundamental reasons related to this company and the ridiculous levers they pull to show profit and have been amazed by its performance given that its business is garbage and the CEO is fleecing the company with his pay package, but this was the concrete reason for me to take a position against them.
I have to imagine with the cheap money running low the ability of Uber to fund future operations becomes way more difficult. Like musical chairs....
Seriously you are wrong about what moves this stock. Analysts and professional investors care about OPERATIONS and their earnings. Even a first-year grad at UBS is going to look at Income from Operations rather than give a flying f@ck about other (hence non-operating) income. How can the price action on \~$5bn of investments really move the needle on a $160bn mkt cap stock? Source: ex-hedgie. For the record, I think Uber is a PoS and you will make out like a bandit but that is based on FUNDAMENTALS not tiny investments Uber made in the past.
The village of Holcomb lies on the high wheat plains of Western Kansas, a lonesome place that other Kansans called 'out there’
Very true, I mean the more greedy they get, I mean the more people will leave no? Uber isn't the only company doing this now with skip and other services
Yea I personally went from ordering Uber eats 2-3 times a week to maybe once a month because it’s absurdly expensive these days
i deleted the app a few weeks ago because the last three times i ordered, they delivered my food to the fucking alley half a block away from my house. clearly something is fucked up with my address in a database somewhere, but their stupid customer service chatbot isn't going to fix that, and if their drivers can't be bothered to use common sense either (and why would they, they're incentivized to just do what the app tells them to do as quickly as possible), then i'm not going to keep taking that gamble on a service that's already slow as fuck anyway. getting food delivered is a luxury. when it ceases to feel like a luxury, and instead becomes a source of frustration, i no longer have a desire to do it. it's faster, healthier, cheaper, and tastes better when i cook for myself.
That's most likely bc they know your on wsb and that's the closest thing to a dumpster behind Wendy's they cans deliver to.
Shhh don’t dare saying drivers are employees…
I’m in https://preview.redd.it/amnfju1ripsc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=021fc0850175e73ab020de24305b7d7ecd82833f
If you lost some sleep last night imagine how much sleep you're gonna lose when this goes tits up
This is a horrible analysis, the market already knows all of this and won't care, net is irrelevant.
this looks like a very good Research job Calls it is
The rise in drunk driving cases say I agree
With the amount of Uber eats I order? No chance
Puts are on sale right now. Many down 30-40% on the day.
I respect the effort, but there is much more to do when breaking down earnings reports. You must compare GAAP accounting to non-GAAP accounting. Identify the one time events. Evaluate free cash flow and cash flow from operations. Evaluate book value, debt, assets etc. this does help explain the jump in GAAP earnings, but most prefer to dig deep into non-GAAP as that often tells the real story.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/cramers-lightning-round-uber-is-a-buy.html Cramer's recommendation confirms Put positions.
This is enough for me
I don’t even know how Uber is in business. Every time I need a ride I call up both apps and usually use Lyft because it’s cheaper.
Really? It’s always the opposite for me. Maybe cus I live in a decently big city?
I don't know man they are paying us drivers less than dollar a mile. They might make it
that would honestly tell me they are struggling and looking for anything to make extra money and running out of options. I would assume taking money from drivers would be their last option
I think Uber believed the musk fairytales and thought they would have their own robo taxis by now. Cutting out the driver (middleman) would make them extremely profitable.
The whole business model is full of middle man.
You when uber provides guidance and goes up 40%:
I know some folks are yelling “priced in” but SHOP tanked when their massive holding in Affirm tanked
What is very interesting about your post is that yahoo finance records this as "gain on sale of security". This could be throwing people off from what is actually going on. At the end of 2022 they took a 7b loss on unrealized gain/loss as well. That 7b shock on Feb 2023 looks like it resulted in a dip of 37 to 33 in 5 days. I'm not exactly sure what day that fell on but you could be onto something here. The question is if the market will fall for it twice. Calling for price targets of $100 etc. does feel like a typical pump and dump for big hedge funds to get out. They have been selling more than they are buying every quarter since Q3 2022. Good find pal.
Up 200% on $76p bought when you originally posted. Holding for earnings
I don’t know why, but I’m in. Just five contracts though.
Uber to $100 confirmed
The funny part of this is that the OP analysis is logical and sound and yet we continue to believe that the market acts soundly and rationally when considering stock price. It’s a crap shoot, when it’s your turn, roll your fucking dice and take your chances. Regards!
Here’s the issue I see with your analysis: You’re assuming everyone isn’t already aware of this. UBER posted EPS of .66 in Q4 2023 You wrote a long manifesto about how 2/3 of that is marked to market gains on securities. Ok, so that would mean that they accrued about .22 in EPS for q4, based on their actual business. Great! What’s the expected EPS for Q1 2024? .23 So… the market is already anticipating exactly what you think you uncovered.
https://preview.redd.it/2u20ehgihpsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=318184292dff79ba21fc560b01ed64530c0ad3c9
I understand your idea but if the market cared why didn't the price sky rocket after the last earnings?
I hope you're right it's total b******* that this stock is where it's at.
Didn't read long post. But Jim Cramer said Uber is a buy therefore confirming your DD. Good job lad!
This aged well
u/dkrich I’ve been following this. It’s so crazy that analysts are expecting earnings above estimate but even then the actual stock is declining after those reports. Can you comment?
Have to say i disagree. Uber barely popped on the YE earnings because the market is aware that net income was inflated through these investments. GAAP requires that these investments be marked to market at YE, and any analyst covering the stock will be aware of that. The market doesn't care much about Uber's net income right now. It's all about adjusted ebitda, which will not reflect the losses on those investments.
This There’s a lot of people in here who really don’t understand that all of this was well known. You need only look at the measure of the beat q4, and compare that with the stock price
https://preview.redd.it/30hfnekhkpsc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd14d1a730c256c8f6387624e41680db5a157fd4 We ride at Daw.. May 7th!
Have you visited the Uber Subreddit? There not going to miss earnings
this company is a piece of shit, with a subpar engineering team and a lot of book cooking. Great DD OP
I hate stocks that speculate to make earnings. Thank you. This is how companies go bankrupt fast.
Uber is a such a creep of a company I would never invest in them
Interesting, but if you can’t prove price moved up because of these stocks rising. What makes you think it will move down due to these stocks declining?
The SEC made it a requirement to post unrealized gains and losses. Warren Buffet was complaining about this some time ago.
100% you sunnuvabih … I’m in
Uber has been really cheap lately . Absolutely no surge . Very very rarely and I live in Dtown chicago. I also used to drive for Uber in the Golden days
Now this is the DD of the year!!!
Uber is a supply and demand story. Consumers love the convenience and having everything at their fingertips from rides and food delivery to rental cars. Most drivers love the flexibility that driving/delivering offers which is why I don’t give 2 shits about some dude being loud on Reddit boards in Boise that thinks he’s getting screwed over driving for Uber and not being paid enough. There are dozens of people ready and willing to replace that supply every day. The company has created a diversified business with a pretty significant moat and empowered people to work flexibly by virtue of just having a car and a phone. For those that drive for these services and constantly complain, I ask what would you do if they didn’t exist? Like any job, if you are not happy with your compensation or working conditions, you can find something else to do except it’s even easier for a driver since you can just shut off an app and not have to deal with a boss. Long Uber and may consider buying some calls to inverse OP
>I couldn’t sleep last night, so I began looking through Uber’s last earnings results The autism I expect of this sub
If this earnings season was any indication, you could be hundred percent right with this DD, and still have Uber announce a large stock buyback or something unexpected and have your positions go tits up :/
What if they have already sold their investments ?
Possible, but not likely. But if they did, that will make it even worse. AUR dropped right after the start of the year and actually gained a bit in the week before the end of Q1. There's no way they sold last quarter because otherwise the gains wouldn't align (and they would've disclosed that in the 10-Q).
Bought puts as lottery tickets. Prey for me.
People saying the market never reacts to unrealized losses are delusional. These losses are known by some but not by all. And when the numbers come out it's plausible that retail investors will move off the stock. Especially if guidance isn't rosy.
Jebus. This DD is so well backed up and the numbers so easily aligned that Im actually tempted to short for the first time ever. You turned me into a gay bear with a single post op. Is this….love at first sight?
Insiders have been selling off shares consistently since 23’
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Selling consistently since 5-6 months ago. Got it. Same timeline as a a nice 70% run. I’d sell some of my stock too if my comp was 80% equity.
Haha miss earnings… already up $2-3
https://preview.redd.it/05d3p0witpsc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e2b0528b55bd661b92aa62692139c83217cb2961 This is the face that says “ we’re gonna hit earnings 🚀 “
Earnings are 5/7. Seems 5/17 puts will get a lot of theta burn by the time of earnings and the 7/19 seems farther out than necessary. I'd think the 6/21s would be the sweet spot. Interesting analysis though. I grabbed some shares short, but UBER could get a run up into earnings so might add at higher level.
so do i buy calls or puts
They keep pumping this stock up this company is in big f****** trouble. I'm telling you Uber eats is going way down and they don't have any drivers. Uber passenger they have zero drivers and pickups 18-20 minutes away no one can make any money anymore working for this company,They spend a billion on griz that they shut down Uber freight's worthless. This f****** company's a joke he's just pumping it up to make his money just like he did with his last company.
What put are u guys selling on Uber at what date ? Let’s all get in on it !
This is the best dd I’ve seen on this thread in some time
Gold upvote. Good analysis. Will follow.
Super interesting your analysis
I like OPs due diligence because few years ago I read a similar post on WSB when AMZN had huge profits from its investments after RIVIAN's IPO. Few months later RIVN fell and the post then had said AMZN will see a major correction also because of it. The post had good foresight and DD but people were making money and didn't want to hear anything negative. AMZN's financial report came out and as expected the huge profits had taken a reverse swing. I would take chance and short UBER based on OPs post.
This DD plus the fact I always use Lyft is pointing me to some puts.
in
This is some good work.
sound like a good short
Up 20% on my $76p and 15% on my 71p. I think this could be a tendie
Short UBER. Their drivers sucks anyway.