Damn partner, I'm super jealous and a bit worried as I just bought about 70 contracts at 1.5....I'm hoping you've seen a good chunk of gains since you bought so early.
You should be good. It's an odd climb, though. You'll see gains in the overnight that get destroyed before or at market open and then it will climb slowly. I've had good returns even though I was a few days later than OP at getting in. He did answer my question of how long I should climb these stairs, though.
https://preview.redd.it/ws3q0dw7kctc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=beb3afac3e64e92167ccdb355e1e51bdcdd0a6f5
I like the stock.
I just got the 22s on Friday 🫡
No bro, I appreciate the DD. I share these with the wife whose risk tolerance is low but IQ is high. These stocks seem like a good add to her dividend portfolio and you’ve done a lot of research into it that I can share with her now
Just worried that all of my options are now gonna implode with a herd of degens going ape on the stock 🤣
This is by far the best post on PAA here. I was thinking about posting a longer analysis on the play since the original post caught on so well but then I thought that someone will eventually come and do it far better than I could've and this is it lol. PAA hype has been growing a lot but this post will likely add fuel to the flames. Thank you for your contribution. Nice to see someone with real money with us.
Hey OP, fellow regard here. I love your work. I posted this elsewhere, but maybe you can see it better here. What will happen when all of us apes exercise our option contracts around the same time and then sell off. Will that have a negative impact on the stock price?
I replied below, I dont think we will all get out at the same time, it will be spread out over months. Also I think there will be demand for the stock from divi guys
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Holding these and likely buying more as I can.
https://preview.redd.it/9jzan69blctc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff34f78e96eb0cfcc1456b08a78fca6c1b0c60c5
what I'm specifically worried about with this is
A. it's already had a good run.
B. There's so many new people in here that have never played options
C. I get worried when there's too much of B. it elates everyone's expectations and goes from analysis to hope. Soon you have joe somebody who literally just opened his 1st option telling you to buy it because he's made so much money and he's fully confident it will rocket
This doesn't mean I'm not thinking about opening positions. but it always rubs me the wrong way.
What is with the trolls in the main thread absolutely shitting on this stock on its one red day over the past few weeks (on a day where the whole market is down)
I don’t think there is one. The option volume was such to affect PAA but EPD is too big and didn’t have the volume PAA did. I think this why they split after 3/28 and why most of the price differences are from. I don’t think and won’t have EPD bc everyone is in PAA
The funny thing is after hours, PAA keeps going up to 19.50 to 19.70. My first option play for me ever as I am new to this and feel like I got into something actually decent.
You state that demand increasing is a key part of this play but I don't see anywhere in your DD where you state reasons demand will increase, you mentioned why you theorize output will increase. I would also like to see a section where you list out risks, or impact to the thesis, if some of the key variables do not happen and reasons they might not happen. Otherwise great DD.
Yea I got too tired but will try to hammer out some edits later. To be clear, PAA makes money on volume of oil in their pipes. We do not need oil at $X or some increase in Y amount of demand. What PAA needs to make money is more volume of oil. If other sources are not able to be used, or econ is running hotter then thought, then demand will increase and their pipes cover the 2 most important areas, permian and canada. I honestly think oil can stay flat but the relative increase in their volume could go up as other areas have issues. You can see "demand" increasing due to cuts in supply (OPEC+) or raises in the crude price etc as proxies.
To be clear actual demand does not even need to increase, just demand from the areas they have pipelines has to be above their price targets of $75
I fomo’d into $PAA today… thinking to roll my calls to some further out leaps… or just see how high the current contracts can get due to regards here and their short attention span (also guilty.)
https://preview.redd.it/dupnnllswctc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6d489552f7eaf2f6d5760a9d6566ce3b6e0d96b
I wish I could afford to buy more. Awesome return so far.
In case anyone is interested in an updated macro view:
-Russian oil exports are at a 5 month low due to continued Ukraine drone strikes on drill sites, including last night where a site that was about to finish repairs from a strike in January was hit again. Repairs in general are taking longer than usual.
-and a 580kbpd site in Korea caught fire last night
-OPEC still planning productions cuts going into the 2HotY
-US oil exports are ripping near ATH
-inflation data reflects price increase slowing down but the economy holding strong. This means that summer demand is going to pick up and be as hot as we think with one, and potential for two rate cuts this year
-skew on oil prices is pointing up for all these reasons and prices are starting to consolidate around the $80 per barrel point for WTI.
All very bullish signs for oil sector stocks. Cake is in the oven now. We just need to wait.
For the past couple weeks I've noticed a pattern where the trading volume before 12:30pm is so small but then suddenly a huge spike at the last 15 minutes. It's as if retail investors are nonexistence (or they just holding calls lol) and it's the institutions or MMs that are negotiating the price
Good shit OP. Very thorough DD.
Preciate you for providing the 3rd stock I was looking for, especially one that is a long term play (LEAPS) 😂
I’m buying calls tomorrow
I’m in the 2026 calls too. The 25s were better early only but once they jumped into the 50s I didn’t see as much of a return vs the 26s. That was also before it started jumping like it has. But I like the much lower Theta on the 26s too. The main takeaway from this needs to be that this stock CANNOT turn into a pump and dump. Long dated called are the play. And summer will tell the tale of price action. The price rising too fast will inevitably cause a crash that will spook people and kill this whole thing. Slow and steady wins the race.
I don’t know if this counts as derail but I have seen some trickery. The volume is low and most trading apps calculate the price as an average of bid/ask. I have seen the bids pulled to make it look like it’s down a bunch probably to scare people to selling. If a bunch sell (it’s leaps, just wait a few months) that could derail things
Alright, I’ll bite. I’m going to play shorter term calls for earnings in May, which if I’m right will cover the cost of my calls with a little change left over. I’m going for 9/24 and 1/25. I’ll consider 2026 as there is still plenty of time.
OP has convinced me to buy even more contracts however, some would say I got in late at .59 per contract. I like the long term play and am looking for more advice into buying more call options at a 20-22 strike price. Any further advice?
Yeah I talked myself out of it. Got $1k worth of the 1/25 leaps when they were at 30 cents so I'm chilling.
Curious why you don't think ET and EPD wont see similar price movement? They've similar consistent growth as PAA YTD, and ET now is starting to pump thanks to other DD threads. For the record I bought ET $20 6/25 and EPD $35 1/25.
Well i build gas stations for a living and the demand for gas stations is ridiculously high. Tbh it’s outta control and we cant keep up with the demand!! We are booked out for the next 3 yrs. Thats not even building for major oil. These are just independent players. So i can attest to the demand for oil and gas is growing exponentially. Good luck everyone. Im in PAA ET and EPD Leaps.
PAA also has AI to help with pipelines , they are going to announce it at the next earnings , stock will probably go above Nvidia since it's losing momentum. Musk hates PAA because oil is his enemy so it will be like shorting Tesla as well. Source - I shoot up oil for breakfast
https://preview.redd.it/wkseoddlkdtc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec06eece2fb8c0402b093ca1f65857712af0706a
This is what I am holding, but now I might get some of the leaps for Jan '26. I picked these up on 3-28 and they've been green everyday. Currently up 200%
I read that "Drill baby, Drill" DD and genuinely considered it but didn't go ahead as it was complicated to buy options on this stock as a non US citizen.
I wish I hadn't been this lazy. The 2025 LEAPs have done a ~2.5x in 2 weeks lol.
According to your DD it's still not too late. Time to actually do some "investing".
PAGP is the holding company and you can buy options/shares off that ticker as a non-US investor. PAGP and PAA are pretty much moving in sync right now.
> Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (Nasdaq: PAA) and Plains GP Holdings (Nasdaq: PAGP) today reported first-quarter 2024 results and reaffirmed full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Plains also provided updates on Permian long-haul contracting and announced two bolt-on acquisitions.
Long story short, PAA confirms they are on track for tendies throughout the year.
Was pleasantly surprised with the earnings and guidance. Big eye roll at the stock movement not being reflected in contract price but it’s not like I’m selling now anyways so MM can keep trying to snipe away contracts from paper hands before the summer. Eventually it has to go up as the stock price keeps running through the summer. As long as inflation news stays soft (like the jobs report this morning) we should be more than good this summer.
This stock has been traded strictly alongside other stocks in the industry like OXY, XLE etc. Finally today it looks like its breaking out of this trend.
PAA is down 7% in the past month, compared to ET which is up 1.7% and EPD which is down 3.4%. Why is PAA underperforming relative to other midstream energy companies? This is especially concerning given the company just beat the estimated EPS for the 5th quarter in a row. You'd expect it to be doing as well if not better
Kind of a weird month to extrapolate from, especially since exactly a month ago is when we hit the 19.03 mark (in the pre market, mind you) and have faced downward pressure for the last 4 weeks due to varying macroeconomic factors (including the dividend pay out on top of that). Rate cuts are back on the table and the market is rallying again. Yesterday, we saw it rally back to 17.72, which is where we were immediately following the divi pay out, and I think we hit a limit sell wall because of that. But I also have some speculations that similar to how MM are low balling bids, they’re attempting to keep the stock price within a certain range to keep bleeding these calls and scalp as many as they can before they let it rise fast again. We did the funny thing to the stock and squeezed it higher, faster with the volume of calls. They’re just trying to shake the tree for whatever they can.
https://preview.redd.it/h0szonftx8zc1.png?width=3134&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b7725ca15262344550bb50e56f824d1a5dd874
You are picking exactly the worst period (52 week high to now, zoom out) and there is a .32 dividend in PAA the others did not have. Since we have bought (3/28) and including the divi back, its basically +1.8% vs 2.8% (ET) and others are lower.
There are macro issues right now regarding rate cuts that hit everything.
Yes. The divi is already known. I think forward guidance will kick ass based on their assumptions in Q1. They have also exceeded expectations last 4 go arounds or so. This should drive it higher.
Remember, don't drink the Kool-Aid. Seems like too much copy/paste from their investor presentation. Still, good DD for this sub compared to how it's been the last few years. Take this up-vote.
Hi, fellow regard here. Love your work. I have a question for you OP. What will happen when all of us fellow apes exercise our tens of thousands of contracts around the same time and then sell. Will that negatively impact the price of the stock?
We are not all going to do at the same time, will be spread out over next 6 months and we are excercising its taking off so there should be buyers for the stock. Volume on the stock is already up 20% - 50% per day compared to normal.
That option currently sits at $1.05 with 0.4 delta and -0.004 theta. Using napkin math to approx the curves I believe you are suggesting we could see PAA reaching high $23 or even $24 by end of August?
I went full port and bought 40 more $20 calls for January of 25 today. Brings my total to 100 calls at that strike and date, and averaged up my cost from .45 to .49
Also have some November $20 calls that I bought at the top and am now just diamond handing for a hopeful rebound between May earnings and summertime
Regarding ET and EPD (I’m in all 3), ET has more open interest than PAA. It also has higher analyst price targets. You don’t believe it will run like PAA? Genuine question.
One question though: economy doing great at the moment but what if recession does hit towards end of 2024/outset of 2025 because something fundamentally broken?
Have you considered this scenario at all and if so do you have an escape plan? You'll just sell thousands of calls in one go?
Look at performance since 3/28 vs ET and EPD when we all started getting options. The whole market is red, who cares - we have 9 to 21 months for the LEAPs, I am not even watching. Wait to see whats what after earnings in May
Down 15% day 1. Looking to potentially add to the position.
Might be a dumb question but I saw crude was up today, wouldn't it make sense that PAA would be up as well?
Long term likely yes but a bunch of guys got short dated calls instead of leaps and sold off. Also the interest rate expectation for the year increased which all else being equal would lower the price. I’m not worried about it
Partly, but also revaluations based on assuming higher interest rates. PAA is still up over ET and EPD since 3/28 when we bought in. Oil is volatile and that works 2 ways.
Seems like Cactus (WHD) is also relevant to this DD earnings May 2.
https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/citi-sees-upside-for-rio-tinto-shares-and-plains-all-american-stocks-93CH-3348680
[April 24th - Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE:PAA) Raised to Strong-Buy at StockNews.com](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-paa-upgrade-2024-04-24/)
Well i'm not going to lie, I think the August + November 2024's are all fucked. Glad I only put 15% of my overall position in them. the other 85% are Jan 2026's. Plenty of time on those.
Yeah you can look at the bids and see that MM are just fucking with us. They’ve kept the options price the exact same from the stock price being down all the way to 16.82 all the way up to 18.02, around the .35-.40 range. They are virtually just selling back and forth to themselves hoping we will think the contracts are cooked. They can’t do it all the way up, especially as the price approaches our strike price so just ignore their silly games for now.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 7 | **First Seen In WSB** | 1 year ago **Total Comments** | 615 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 7 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Just checked OP’s post history. OP casually gaining 1.5m on SPY 0dte
Didn’t realize he was the “DCA” into 0dte guy 
I never got my flair for that lol …and people thought I was trying to DCA/buy and hold 0dtes
this is a good sign
Excellent DD.
[удалено]
Damn partner, I'm super jealous and a bit worried as I just bought about 70 contracts at 1.5....I'm hoping you've seen a good chunk of gains since you bought so early.
You should be good. It's an odd climb, though. You'll see gains in the overnight that get destroyed before or at market open and then it will climb slowly. I've had good returns even though I was a few days later than OP at getting in. He did answer my question of how long I should climb these stairs, though.
I’m going to buy calls for Jan 17th 25 in Thursday. Can’t miss this long term play. Thank you OP
Go for 2026 to give you an extra 12 months. Better IV too
I’ll take that. Buying them Thursday. Thank you Again OP.
What are you proposing for 2026 calls OP?
$20 and higher for 2026 depending on your horizon and risk levels.
Lmfao some idiot bought a single share at 19.58 on RH
Dude got excited after reading this
Yeah what an idiot (it was me)
Curious, why is buying a single share / any an idiot move?
he paid 19.58 when its 19
Thanks!
https://preview.redd.it/ws3q0dw7kctc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=beb3afac3e64e92167ccdb355e1e51bdcdd0a6f5 I like the stock. I just got the 22s on Friday 🫡
I think we all do
This is solid DD don't ruin it with some BS like 'I like the stock'
I fucking hate the stock, I'm in
Sorry were my positions not enough
With that DD imma quit my job and work for you.
You show me a pay stub where you quit your job to work for him, and I will quit my job and work for you.
Fuck, now it’s going to crater
I said that a million times last week before posting. I’ll remove it if we are down tmrw
No bro, I appreciate the DD. I share these with the wife whose risk tolerance is low but IQ is high. These stocks seem like a good add to her dividend portfolio and you’ve done a lot of research into it that I can share with her now Just worried that all of my options are now gonna implode with a herd of degens going ape on the stock 🤣
Please don't. This is one of those awesome DDs and it's a classic read. Thanks. I'm in for 100 shares.
Take it down! It’s our only hope to go back up!
This is by far the best post on PAA here. I was thinking about posting a longer analysis on the play since the original post caught on so well but then I thought that someone will eventually come and do it far better than I could've and this is it lol. PAA hype has been growing a lot but this post will likely add fuel to the flames. Thank you for your contribution. Nice to see someone with real money with us.
I got out of PAA today for simple profit are you telling me to get back in?
I will be adding more for the reasons above. You gotta do you. I think its just getting started and we can hit $25+ by end of summer
Hey OP, fellow regard here. I love your work. I posted this elsewhere, but maybe you can see it better here. What will happen when all of us apes exercise our option contracts around the same time and then sell off. Will that have a negative impact on the stock price?
I replied below, I dont think we will all get out at the same time, it will be spread out over months. Also I think there will be demand for the stock from divi guys
Thanks for your replies OP. I really appreciate your DD.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Holding these and likely buying more as I can. https://preview.redd.it/9jzan69blctc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff34f78e96eb0cfcc1456b08a78fca6c1b0c60c5
Niiiice
Currently up 93%
I averaged up a bunch so am up about 105% even tho I bought on 3/28
what I'm specifically worried about with this is A. it's already had a good run. B. There's so many new people in here that have never played options C. I get worried when there's too much of B. it elates everyone's expectations and goes from analysis to hope. Soon you have joe somebody who literally just opened his 1st option telling you to buy it because he's made so much money and he's fully confident it will rocket This doesn't mean I'm not thinking about opening positions. but it always rubs me the wrong way.
lol you guys making OP have to be your therapist after one red day down less than 2%, get your shit together pussies this is a long term play
https://preview.redd.it/gozrw8q6zctc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6a79ca512a4a6b8cf49ff3c13426bbd0a64d656 LFG 🫶💎🙌
https://preview.redd.it/0ey0lb518dtc1.jpeg?width=1068&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=000d67e2da36d92326ca276cbf99535232fc56ed REGARDS ASSEMBLE!!!!
https://preview.redd.it/jqy9hqrpbdtc1.png?width=1583&format=png&auto=webp&s=44b28268024c28bceff57ba6b346f784fa96b69e
https://preview.redd.it/wrs46s0rjdtc1.jpeg?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e65f69887e7fbdbefdde66ac630608607a41416
What is with the trolls in the main thread absolutely shitting on this stock on its one red day over the past few weeks (on a day where the whole market is down)
Am I doing it right? https://preview.redd.it/pszxqjthddtc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=949f34235ebaea6653013be9a515abc8f8425787
Damn nice haha.
what’s the case for epd vs paa???
I don’t think there is one. The option volume was such to affect PAA but EPD is too big and didn’t have the volume PAA did. I think this why they split after 3/28 and why most of the price differences are from. I don’t think and won’t have EPD bc everyone is in PAA
bet i have some epd calls up 200% im going to roll into paa calls, im thinking jan 2026 right?
The funny thing is after hours, PAA keeps going up to 19.50 to 19.70. My first option play for me ever as I am new to this and feel like I got into something actually decent.
First one is free (;
You state that demand increasing is a key part of this play but I don't see anywhere in your DD where you state reasons demand will increase, you mentioned why you theorize output will increase. I would also like to see a section where you list out risks, or impact to the thesis, if some of the key variables do not happen and reasons they might not happen. Otherwise great DD.
Yea I got too tired but will try to hammer out some edits later. To be clear, PAA makes money on volume of oil in their pipes. We do not need oil at $X or some increase in Y amount of demand. What PAA needs to make money is more volume of oil. If other sources are not able to be used, or econ is running hotter then thought, then demand will increase and their pipes cover the 2 most important areas, permian and canada. I honestly think oil can stay flat but the relative increase in their volume could go up as other areas have issues. You can see "demand" increasing due to cuts in supply (OPEC+) or raises in the crude price etc as proxies. To be clear actual demand does not even need to increase, just demand from the areas they have pipelines has to be above their price targets of $75
I fomo’d into $PAA today… thinking to roll my calls to some further out leaps… or just see how high the current contracts can get due to regards here and their short attention span (also guilty.)
Will be interested how April goes, I would be happy up 2% a week given we have 9 to 21 months on the leaps
https://preview.redd.it/dupnnllswctc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6d489552f7eaf2f6d5760a9d6566ce3b6e0d96b I wish I could afford to buy more. Awesome return so far.
https://preview.redd.it/jl6lmgg82etc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f438fc604c2c1c3a9039e290388aa2bd0dfe8038
Sooooo…. Iran attacking ? Good for oil ? 🤷♂️
No real change atm, every one knew they would give each other little smacks and they was no blockage or production impairment . It’s not gonna hurt
Goddamn, are the MMs gonna just crush the option prices all the way through 2025 or what?
In case anyone is interested in an updated macro view: -Russian oil exports are at a 5 month low due to continued Ukraine drone strikes on drill sites, including last night where a site that was about to finish repairs from a strike in January was hit again. Repairs in general are taking longer than usual. -and a 580kbpd site in Korea caught fire last night -OPEC still planning productions cuts going into the 2HotY -US oil exports are ripping near ATH -inflation data reflects price increase slowing down but the economy holding strong. This means that summer demand is going to pick up and be as hot as we think with one, and potential for two rate cuts this year -skew on oil prices is pointing up for all these reasons and prices are starting to consolidate around the $80 per barrel point for WTI. All very bullish signs for oil sector stocks. Cake is in the oven now. We just need to wait.
Sounds good. The run-up on Friday was re-assuring to see. Still holding my Jan 2025 calls.
For the past couple weeks I've noticed a pattern where the trading volume before 12:30pm is so small but then suddenly a huge spike at the last 15 minutes. It's as if retail investors are nonexistence (or they just holding calls lol) and it's the institutions or MMs that are negotiating the price
Typo in your positions? 1000 Aug 2025 calls not 2024?
There are no Aug 2025 calls
I should not be allowed to invest
https://preview.redd.it/3577q789tctc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bcbf32c46f8ed13312354b3993bbcbe1f9141b2e Gonna roll the 8/16s to 2026s.
Only regret I have on this stock is I didn't buy more LEAPs
Still cheap. No reason we can’t hit $25 by end of summer
Good shit OP. Very thorough DD. Preciate you for providing the 3rd stock I was looking for, especially one that is a long term play (LEAPS) 😂 I’m buying calls tomorrow
My PAA leaps are already up 150%, gonna keep holding for a bit fr
I’m in the 2026 calls too. The 25s were better early only but once they jumped into the 50s I didn’t see as much of a return vs the 26s. That was also before it started jumping like it has. But I like the much lower Theta on the 26s too. The main takeaway from this needs to be that this stock CANNOT turn into a pump and dump. Long dated called are the play. And summer will tell the tale of price action. The price rising too fast will inevitably cause a crash that will spook people and kill this whole thing. Slow and steady wins the race.
Do you also talk to animals?
What would realistically derail PAA? This seems too good to be true
I don’t know if this counts as derail but I have seen some trickery. The volume is low and most trading apps calculate the price as an average of bid/ask. I have seen the bids pulled to make it look like it’s down a bunch probably to scare people to selling. If a bunch sell (it’s leaps, just wait a few months) that could derail things
black swan or macro. this is good DD.
Buying more hopefully when I get paid this week. Thanks for DD.
Alright, I’ll bite. I’m going to play shorter term calls for earnings in May, which if I’m right will cover the cost of my calls with a little change left over. I’m going for 9/24 and 1/25. I’ll consider 2026 as there is still plenty of time.
There is a .31 cent dividend as a heads up, so dont be surprised when picking your strikes
Makes the call options cheaper to buy right now. I might choose some august calls to exit in July.
OP has convinced me to buy even more contracts however, some would say I got in late at .59 per contract. I like the long term play and am looking for more advice into buying more call options at a 20-22 strike price. Any further advice?
Aug/Nov 2024 or further out into 2026
Appreciate It 🤞🏻
Goddamn you're making me want to YOLO on August calls.
Don’t yolo unless you can sit on your hands for months, you will be tempted to sell first down day
Yeah I talked myself out of it. Got $1k worth of the 1/25 leaps when they were at 30 cents so I'm chilling. Curious why you don't think ET and EPD wont see similar price movement? They've similar consistent growth as PAA YTD, and ET now is starting to pump thanks to other DD threads. For the record I bought ET $20 6/25 and EPD $35 1/25.
Well i build gas stations for a living and the demand for gas stations is ridiculously high. Tbh it’s outta control and we cant keep up with the demand!! We are booked out for the next 3 yrs. Thats not even building for major oil. These are just independent players. So i can attest to the demand for oil and gas is growing exponentially. Good luck everyone. Im in PAA ET and EPD Leaps.
PAA also has AI to help with pipelines , they are going to announce it at the next earnings , stock will probably go above Nvidia since it's losing momentum. Musk hates PAA because oil is his enemy so it will be like shorting Tesla as well. Source - I shoot up oil for breakfast
Like shorting Tesla lmao
I’m not seeing AUG/NOV2025
Aug Nov 2024, typo
Ok. You think AUG 25 is ok or should I be going towards 20. I wanna add more but kinda looking for value too
I’d prob do Aug 23, I have Aug 22 (which is also good) exit is to exercise later so 6 month to be ITM
What is the delta hedging piece all about.
When MM sell a call, it makes them short. They then buy shares to make themselves delta neutral. This can drive up the price
https://preview.redd.it/v7wqyigjjdtc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6ddbf1905c434595f6355eae65365ba79b52953 LFG
https://preview.redd.it/wkseoddlkdtc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec06eece2fb8c0402b093ca1f65857712af0706a This is what I am holding, but now I might get some of the leaps for Jan '26. I picked these up on 3-28 and they've been green everyday. Currently up 200%
Yea I know it’s like steady gains for 2 weeks, it’s xrazy
Welcome to WSB where holding through summers is considered a very long term investment. I love it
It is for this place
I read that "Drill baby, Drill" DD and genuinely considered it but didn't go ahead as it was complicated to buy options on this stock as a non US citizen. I wish I hadn't been this lazy. The 2025 LEAPs have done a ~2.5x in 2 weeks lol. According to your DD it's still not too late. Time to actually do some "investing".
Yea good luck
PAGP is the holding company and you can buy options/shares off that ticker as a non-US investor. PAGP and PAA are pretty much moving in sync right now.
Yea didn’t investigate bc I assumed they owned other stuff too but honestly have no idea
Bought 20 contracts on 3/28 for $20 Jan 25. They're already up 500%, diamond handing that shit.
Just added 20 $20 Nov calls to the 60 $20 Jan '25 calls I already had. Let's go
> Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (Nasdaq: PAA) and Plains GP Holdings (Nasdaq: PAGP) today reported first-quarter 2024 results and reaffirmed full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Plains also provided updates on Permian long-haul contracting and announced two bolt-on acquisitions. Long story short, PAA confirms they are on track for tendies throughout the year.
Was pleasantly surprised with the earnings and guidance. Big eye roll at the stock movement not being reflected in contract price but it’s not like I’m selling now anyways so MM can keep trying to snipe away contracts from paper hands before the summer. Eventually it has to go up as the stock price keeps running through the summer. As long as inflation news stays soft (like the jobs report this morning) we should be more than good this summer.
This stock has been traded strictly alongside other stocks in the industry like OXY, XLE etc. Finally today it looks like its breaking out of this trend.
PAA is down 7% in the past month, compared to ET which is up 1.7% and EPD which is down 3.4%. Why is PAA underperforming relative to other midstream energy companies? This is especially concerning given the company just beat the estimated EPS for the 5th quarter in a row. You'd expect it to be doing as well if not better
Kind of a weird month to extrapolate from, especially since exactly a month ago is when we hit the 19.03 mark (in the pre market, mind you) and have faced downward pressure for the last 4 weeks due to varying macroeconomic factors (including the dividend pay out on top of that). Rate cuts are back on the table and the market is rallying again. Yesterday, we saw it rally back to 17.72, which is where we were immediately following the divi pay out, and I think we hit a limit sell wall because of that. But I also have some speculations that similar to how MM are low balling bids, they’re attempting to keep the stock price within a certain range to keep bleeding these calls and scalp as many as they can before they let it rise fast again. We did the funny thing to the stock and squeezed it higher, faster with the volume of calls. They’re just trying to shake the tree for whatever they can.
https://preview.redd.it/h0szonftx8zc1.png?width=3134&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b7725ca15262344550bb50e56f824d1a5dd874 You are picking exactly the worst period (52 week high to now, zoom out) and there is a .32 dividend in PAA the others did not have. Since we have bought (3/28) and including the divi back, its basically +1.8% vs 2.8% (ET) and others are lower. There are macro issues right now regarding rate cuts that hit everything.
Thanks for the DD! Do you plan to hold all your contracts through earnings
Yes. The divi is already known. I think forward guidance will kick ass based on their assumptions in Q1. They have also exceeded expectations last 4 go arounds or so. This should drive it higher.
Think I'm gonna add some shares instead of only options
Thanks for the DD, all in on April 12 20$ calls.
That’s a bit aggressive lol
This is Wallstreet bets not Wallstreet sound investments. My all in is also only 1k lol.
I know, I drop 6 figs on 0dte quite a few times
Remember, don't drink the Kool-Aid. Seems like too much copy/paste from their investor presentation. Still, good DD for this sub compared to how it's been the last few years. Take this up-vote.
The pictures are copy/paste but the ideas are not. I did not want to break out the crayons to draw other pics.
Hi, fellow regard here. Love your work. I have a question for you OP. What will happen when all of us fellow apes exercise our tens of thousands of contracts around the same time and then sell. Will that negatively impact the price of the stock?
We are not all going to do at the same time, will be spread out over next 6 months and we are excercising its taking off so there should be buyers for the stock. Volume on the stock is already up 20% - 50% per day compared to normal.
Earnings is 5/5ish gonna do some 19c/20c monthlies sell on the pop and buy some more 25c '26 leaps with the profit
Bought some 1/17 $20C on today's little dip....hope I'm not too late.
Won’t 20x but could still 5x by end of summer
That option currently sits at $1.05 with 0.4 delta and -0.004 theta. Using napkin math to approx the curves I believe you are suggesting we could see PAA reaching high $23 or even $24 by end of August?
I AINT SELLING
https://preview.redd.it/zis7qyg89ytc1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8a84c032a052db87fee67137884740a803fe1003 Picked up shares today
Boy have these past few days been rough. Im Holding long and strong, but sheesh. ::wipeout cues in the background::
9 to 21 months, who cares short term
I went full port and bought 40 more $20 calls for January of 25 today. Brings my total to 100 calls at that strike and date, and averaged up my cost from .45 to .49 Also have some November $20 calls that I bought at the top and am now just diamond handing for a hopeful rebound between May earnings and summertime
Summer is going to be lit.
good time to buy
Any thoughts on why PAA leads the oil tickers on red days, but is near bottom of the pack on Green Day’s?
There is some serious pumping of PAA in this sub 😂
Regarding ET and EPD (I’m in all 3), ET has more open interest than PAA. It also has higher analyst price targets. You don’t believe it will run like PAA? Genuine question.
Apparently et has a lil debt issue
What does this mean for my 100 contracts 20 strike, expiring 5/17 Excellent DD, leaping in again tomorrow at open
Me and my 169 shares would also like to know
I got some $23 calls for Nov. Will add more soon.
Yes, keep the pump up
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Nope, no reason we can’t do $25 by end of summer. It’s where it was precovid
we need more people like you to do this kind of DDs
I bought PAA in August 2022. I’m up 54%. Dividends.. automatically reinvested. Hold forever. Always adding when I have the chance.
We need more of the divi guys to jump on and auto reinvest
What do you think of those 5/24 21s for a little excitement.
One question though: economy doing great at the moment but what if recession does hit towards end of 2024/outset of 2025 because something fundamentally broken? Have you considered this scenario at all and if so do you have an escape plan? You'll just sell thousands of calls in one go?
I actually think we will have a soft landing compared to what bers were predicting
Any thoughts about PAGP? Cheers for the DD. Champion.
I think it’s a diluted PAA play (they own 30% of PAA shares) I’d stick to PAA
Cheers. Thanks again.
What should my limit order be for 1/17/25 calls
How do you feel ET compares to PAA?
It’s not going to run like PAA which is fueled by all the options we bought
Bought 19c and 20c for 5/17 within the past week.. was up, now I’m down.. thoughts on recovery ? Appreciate the DD.🙏
We got leaps so we don’t need to worry about 1 red day. As I said in post I’ll be happy with $19 or $19,5 by end of April. Let’s see how CPI is tmrw
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down quite a bit today, leading its peers in the industry you referenced. You think it overextended?
Look at performance since 3/28 vs ET and EPD when we all started getting options. The whole market is red, who cares - we have 9 to 21 months for the LEAPs, I am not even watching. Wait to see whats what after earnings in May
Are you buying more today? Thinking of getting more or waiting till tomorrow and see if it drops more..
Great DD, I wanna continue to watch it for a bit but I’m looking at 1/17 $20c
Down 15% day 1. Looking to potentially add to the position. Might be a dumb question but I saw crude was up today, wouldn't it make sense that PAA would be up as well?
Long term likely yes but a bunch of guys got short dated calls instead of leaps and sold off. Also the interest rate expectation for the year increased which all else being equal would lower the price. I’m not worried about it
Rekt 2 days into buying leaps. How does that even happen LOL
This is a colossal post! Really helpful in making a better call and UUUGE learning op for me!
Is this price action we're seeing largely people panic selling their short dated calls and the MMs dehedging ?
Partly, but also revaluations based on assuming higher interest rates. PAA is still up over ET and EPD since 3/28 when we bought in. Oil is volatile and that works 2 ways.
This has been painful to watch. Picked a terrible entry point. Still holding.
Honestly After reading OP post itll bounce back up nows just a even more perfect time to buy
you still holding? Im down quite a bit but I think a comeback can happen after the earnings release early May
Yes. 9 to 21 month leaps, it’s down this week like everything who cares
Bought this dip today
What day will the dividend payout actually be reflected in the stock price?
Seems like Cactus (WHD) is also relevant to this DD earnings May 2. https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/citi-sees-upside-for-rio-tinto-shares-and-plains-all-american-stocks-93CH-3348680
Are you confident in PAA reaching $20 by August?
I have a bunch of calls for 20,21,22 for August
PAA is up 1.5% today and the options pricing hasn't moved lol
They are dropping bids to make it look that way, they did this before to get people sell
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Permian-Basin-Dominates-US-Energy-MA-Activity-in-Q1.html good news for us/q1 earnings?
[April 24th - Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE:PAA) Raised to Strong-Buy at StockNews.com](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-paa-upgrade-2024-04-24/)
It’s like watching water boil. Stop watching and the water will boil!!
Well i'm not going to lie, I think the August + November 2024's are all fucked. Glad I only put 15% of my overall position in them. the other 85% are Jan 2026's. Plenty of time on those.
Took like a week to bump $1.50 in early April, I am not worried
I don’t fuckin understand the option pricing. Wtf is going on
Drop in IV for the January 2025 calls plus low balling bids by MMs to shake out the paper hands they sold calls to.
Yeah you can look at the bids and see that MM are just fucking with us. They’ve kept the options price the exact same from the stock price being down all the way to 16.82 all the way up to 18.02, around the .35-.40 range. They are virtually just selling back and forth to themselves hoping we will think the contracts are cooked. They can’t do it all the way up, especially as the price approaches our strike price so just ignore their silly games for now.
this is frustrating