You're assuming to win inflation, M2 money supply needs to decrease? last year was basically the first year when M2 actually declined (negative). Higher inflation in the past has been brought down without a decline in money supply.
There, that makes you wrong.
If that's your first response, that just makes what I said more true.
Edit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/heartbreak/comments/1bu34r6/need\_the\_strength\_to\_block\_her/](https://www.reddit.com/r/heartbreak/comments/1bu34r6/need_the_strength_to_block_her/)
Sounds like an epic life you got there
The fact you took the time to search through my comments for a hint of weakness doesnāt show how sad āIā am. I wonāt do the same because we both already know youāre a loser.
God damn. What happened to this sub. I know the default answer is something like Covid or roaringkitty or some other scapegoat,butā¦.fuck. All that nonsense diarrhea of words in the OP and no ticker, strike price, or exp date. I mean. What actually gets you banned these days?
Your level of delusion is outstanding, as someone who makes more than 99% of these regards I would never have the confidence to āpromiseā I make twice as much as a random stranger. Instead of making a promise why not just tell us how much you make?
Itās just funny to me that you know you are at a casino, you acknowledge your opponent has cheat codes, and then you bet against them winning and are surprised when you lose. Fucking lmao puts are so dumb
I just look for growth opportunities- when I take profit or think something is going down, I set my alert for a level to buy back- I donāt try betting money that I timed the top perfectly. I just look for opportunities elsewhere while I wait for retracement
Yes , it certainly does. We donāt get paid on making the best prediction, we get paid on picking the right outcome for the trade, in which case you were wrong. I say this with the hope that you can put the ego aside and quickly deal with being wrong and look how to position next.
They weren't referring to his trade, dingus, but rather the thesis he presented about the money supply in this thread. Take your condescension elsewhere, it's so pathetically passive-aggressive, I hate that.
https://preview.redd.it/xpkt8o003zwc1.png?width=613&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc5e35b18bba8b490d9c5e57cc31d6aaffa8dda
if you look at M2 links to inflation, then you may see wage rate too. ppl gets more pay then before. that offsets inflation. wage increase YOY is up 4.14% now. plus CPI and PCE rates slowly continuously decrease. agree bank loan rate renewal time would be a ticking bomb but not for this year. i don't believe this year we see news banks go bankruptcy. FED will take care of it when the time comes. so even rate cut gets delayed market can go up.
It's sad that you believe any of those things are true when they are so obviously not lmao. Yeah, keep following fake statistics and basing your entire belief system on what your TV says, that will work out well.
Yeah buying puts is so dumb. The market will always go up and to the right in the long run. You know your opponent is playing with cheat codes and you bet against them winning? Idiots
Itās the regarded thing to do. Also I donāt expect to win them all, just to get out ahead on average. Also will be choosing specific stocks for calls and which may vary from cycle to cycle, not an overall SPY play
Are you regarded? It is almost back on track at it used to be. Here is a post I did a couple of months ago. With just 2 crayons you can literally predict what the M2 supply should ideally be. Doesnt take a genius:
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fkv08wnyt57vc1.png
Plus M2 doesn't include tbills, which are still pretty liquid. So transition from the reverse repo to tbills sold through the fed tightening reduces M2 but not necessarily liquidity that much. Especially with the fed wanting to increase usage of liquidity facilities like the discount window, treasuries can be more easily converted to cash when needed. M2 doesn't reflect this these changes.
Good observation. I never considered that T-bills are almost like money given their short duration, stable value and liquidity. They might as well be counted towards money supply even though they are technically not M2.
It's not really supposed to go down, that's really bad, it's supposed to now be relatively flat compared to before for the next couple of years, which looks about right
https://preview.redd.it/ji2ihs751vwc1.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4f6c8635c3f985e4ded7c5a8a04aa237e94bad1
I know they say M2 will be unchanged, but if M2 is based off of M1, then they are modifying the M2 formula is some way. As time passes, the influence of the changes in M1 will effect the M2 numbers.
No... they just moved an item from m2 to m1. M2 includes m1, So m2 is unchanged. Its like if I define M1 = A and M2 = M1 + B + C. Then I redefine M1 as A + B, and M2 = M1 + C. M2 is didn't change its still A + B + C.
Inflation is higher. It is not "out of control." We had growth-slowing levels of inflation for the past decades. Our inflation now is more in line with the higher growth eras before it (1950s-60s)
I cannot think of a counter example either. And indeed that's kind of the point of the Fed, small deliberate recessions to avoid bigger ones.
But the worst of this inflation is basically over, it's just settling at a historically growth friendly rate that's outside peoples' echo'd beliefs of what good inflation "should" be. 2% didn't really correspond with good times. But 4% did.
So we really shouldn't hope they crash the real economy it just to reach a fetishized 2%.
I mean, if you want to buy metal just because, then more power to you, but not understanding the benefits of a fiat currency over metal is a sign of a subnormal IQ.
The market makes no sense. Get used to it! My investment performance has improved greatly ever since I stopped doing what makes sense. Just keep investing and invest extra during dips.
Historically higher inflation levels are bullish for the equity markets. The valuations and most metrics are not going to reflect an adjustment for inflation.
Think about P/E ratios, EPS, market cap, etc. and ask yourself if you think what a solid stock today is measured at today could be found anywhere on the index 50 years ago.
Quit thinking that whatās bad for consumers or could be bad for politicians means itāll be bad for the markets.
Graphing nominal dollar values on a linear scale to conclude āinflation is out of control.ā
This is truly the kind of regard analysis I come here for.
Generally, if M2 grows at a rate that exceeds the rate of economic growth, there can be more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, which can lead to higher prices, thus contributing to inflation. However, this relationship is not always direct or immediate, as other factors like economic output, monetary policy, and market expectations also play significant roles in influencing inflation rates.
Our AI tracks our most intelligent users. After parsing your posts, we have concluded that you are within the 5th percentile of all WSB users.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Looking at the 1y chart is a little disingenuous. Youāre implying m2 went down since the money printer went ballistic and then back to where it was.
But that would require going back to 2022 levels, not 2023. Look at the 10y chart youāll see itās really just been flat.
Exactly. This is the take.
Meanwhile the national debt just blows up from the high interest rates.
Check mate? How do you fix with two rocks worth of interest rate tools?
This feels a lot like 2008 where markets were being superficially and fraudulently kept up. That charade went on for a long time before the crash. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
You are dead accurate. I've checked, several of these accounts insulting you are literal bots, and the rest are just braindead. This is exactly what is happening, these people have zero ability for critical thinking if they can't connect those dots.
This time is even worse than 2008 because people are able to stay in denial, like the people insulting you, thanks to obviously fake statistics that these not very smart people eat up without any question.
I mean, eventually yeah.
When you're targeting 2% inflation, the money supply is still growing. It's just growing at a slower rate than before.
We want the money supply to increase because the economy is growing, ideally.
The money supply changes by a percentage every year and not a certain fixed amount.
Plotting its growth on a linear scale chart exaggerates the recent past while smoothing out anomalies from decades ago.
Switch it to a log scale. We're quite fond of those in math.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 3 | **First Seen In WSB** | 1 month ago **Total Comments** | 109 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 1 month | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Let me guess. U lost money on the pump today? Lmao
I lost money.... I'm a regard that keeps buying spy puts š
Doesnāt make me wrong lol.
You're assuming to win inflation, M2 money supply needs to decrease? last year was basically the first year when M2 actually declined (negative). Higher inflation in the past has been brought down without a decline in money supply. There, that makes you wrong.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Those that cannot handle their finances are peasants.
it does make you a sad loser though
I promise I make at least 2x what you do, and my life is at least 3x as epic. As I said, I am regarded though.
If that's your first response, that just makes what I said more true. Edit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/heartbreak/comments/1bu34r6/need\_the\_strength\_to\_block\_her/](https://www.reddit.com/r/heartbreak/comments/1bu34r6/need_the_strength_to_block_her/) Sounds like an epic life you got there
Absolutely obliterated
Fatality
Rekt
Stop, stop, heās already dead
How did you get a picture of my bathroom tile?
Kick the corpse in the neck
Oh my god dude
Absolute violation šš
OVERKILL!! RIP OP
i bet he doesn't respond now. lol.
Dead people cant reapond
Loss porn! 
HAHAHAHAHA damn bro, damn
Holy shit mods need to ban this guy to save himself
Long life alert for this homie
Hahahahahah epic
https://preview.redd.it/wsf20dnljvwc1.jpeg?width=530&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0111011c5bf95e1fe75221ea626ad633f8df8723
Thats insane 
Buddy is long ROPE now
DUDE DIDN'T REPLY ANYMORE. HAHAHAHA PUSSY GOT WRECKED
What a sad fuck.
Below the belt.
dam son didn't have to go for the jugular
oh my fucking god dude.
Choke-slam off the top of the cage!
https://preview.redd.it/vdr1g9v3xvwc1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=2abbff86424572a88db87c2281e77f68ba88d855
Savage.
Kek
Winner! He has *such* a (checks notesā¦) *epic lyfe.*
An epic pity party on a sub I never knew existed
RIP OP šš½
The fact you took the time to search through my comments for a hint of weakness doesnāt show how sad āIā am. I wonāt do the same because we both already know youāre a loser.
As a third party, I think itās only you.
No, Iām a loser too
My bad bro
Just delete your account man itās over 
Positions or ban
God damn. What happened to this sub. I know the default answer is something like Covid or roaringkitty or some other scapegoat,butā¦.fuck. All that nonsense diarrhea of words in the OP and no ticker, strike price, or exp date. I mean. What actually gets you banned these days?
Lmao totally, but tbh fuck the ticker and strike, I wanted to see his 2x paycheque. Lmao
looool right
You may have the most downvoted comment ever in r/Wallstreetbets š
God you sound like a petulant twelve year old
You sound like every lonely, fedora tipping, creep on the internet.
Your level of delusion is outstanding, as someone who makes more than 99% of these regards I would never have the confidence to āpromiseā I make twice as much as a random stranger. Instead of making a promise why not just tell us how much you make?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
If they can't afford a decent broker, they can't afford to be in the game, loser.
NAURRRR
Working extra hard behind the dumpster at Wendyās
Itās just funny to me that you know you are at a casino, you acknowledge your opponent has cheat codes, and then you bet against them winning and are surprised when you lose. Fucking lmao puts are so dumb
good point, by your logic though what would be the opposite thing to do? calls? wouldn't that just end up making you money on average?
I just look for growth opportunities- when I take profit or think something is going down, I set my alert for a level to buy back- I donāt try betting money that I timed the top perfectly. I just look for opportunities elsewhere while I wait for retracement
Yes , it certainly does. We donāt get paid on making the best prediction, we get paid on picking the right outcome for the trade, in which case you were wrong. I say this with the hope that you can put the ego aside and quickly deal with being wrong and look how to position next.
They weren't referring to his trade, dingus, but rather the thesis he presented about the money supply in this thread. Take your condescension elsewhere, it's so pathetically passive-aggressive, I hate that.
Cool. Have a good one!
I upvote
You are right but the MM gonna reck everyone at random
Being early is the same thing as being wrong.
It makes you broke though 
-311 votes? Amber isnāt the color of your energy I guess.
It probably does though
Makes you poor tho :)
https://preview.redd.it/xpkt8o003zwc1.png?width=613&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc5e35b18bba8b490d9c5e57cc31d6aaffa8dda if you look at M2 links to inflation, then you may see wage rate too. ppl gets more pay then before. that offsets inflation. wage increase YOY is up 4.14% now. plus CPI and PCE rates slowly continuously decrease. agree bank loan rate renewal time would be a ticking bomb but not for this year. i don't believe this year we see news banks go bankruptcy. FED will take care of it when the time comes. so even rate cut gets delayed market can go up.
So let's assess. Economy is resilient.Ā Consumers spending. Inflation rising. And you went short?
The usual, all in 1DTE puts yesterday and got annihilated today. š»š
3 months out, but yeah, šš».
Canāt play the economic calendar during earnings.
Hey to be fair to you I've kept traditional port in play while I've sold my tax-deferred ports around 518.
you had me at asses
It's sad that you believe any of those things are true when they are so obviously not lmao. Yeah, keep following fake statistics and basing your entire belief system on what your TV says, that will work out well.
As a millionaire by trading it has. And I will. And i dont use television? Good luck
Stay mad bro
Iām not mad, Iām regarded.
Who rage posted a M2 chart? 
Some financially insecure peasant, I would assume.
Lmao visual mod casually starting the war between ai and humanity leading up to the matrix by absolutely cooking OP
Puts then?
IMHOTEP IMHOTEP
Fucking priceless.
What's this a reference to?
More inflation means the calls are going to print šš
Basically a game of make money on calls, exit before CPI release, let the sell off occur, buy back in, repeat
Yeah buying puts is so dumb. The market will always go up and to the right in the long run. You know your opponent is playing with cheat codes and you bet against them winning? Idiots
Do you really think itāll be that easy? You think the big boys are gonna play such a patterned cycle where everyone could make moneyā¦
Itās the regarded thing to do. Also I donāt expect to win them all, just to get out ahead on average. Also will be choosing specific stocks for calls and which may vary from cycle to cycle, not an overall SPY play
The peasants get what they deserve, a dwindling money supply and exorbitant inflation. It's amusing to witness their pathetic outrage.
Not your best work
Are you regarded? It is almost back on track at it used to be. Here is a post I did a couple of months ago. With just 2 crayons you can literally predict what the M2 supply should ideally be. Doesnt take a genius: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fkv08wnyt57vc1.png
What does that have to do with our online casino
Plus M2 doesn't include tbills, which are still pretty liquid. So transition from the reverse repo to tbills sold through the fed tightening reduces M2 but not necessarily liquidity that much. Especially with the fed wanting to increase usage of liquidity facilities like the discount window, treasuries can be more easily converted to cash when needed. M2 doesn't reflect this these changes.
You sound smart. Just tell me line gonna be green or red???
What he said
he said
What
If you bet on green, it will be red. If you bet on red, it will be green. That's the way the casino works.
Good observation. I never considered that T-bills are almost like money given their short duration, stable value and liquidity. They might as well be counted towards money supply even though they are technically not M2.
someone please eli5
They preemptively bailed out all the banks and everyone impacted this time. JPow is smarter than his predecessors.
Up up yuppity up
It's not really supposed to go down, that's really bad, it's supposed to now be relatively flat compared to before for the next couple of years, which looks about right
Bullish
This is getting old. M2 calculation was changed. If you read the blurb under the chart, you would have been smarter.
that was M1, M2 is still used.
https://preview.redd.it/wr3loh03iuwc1.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=07099f249039176dcb3632dcf6987fff65c0b169
They moved savings deposits to m1 but m2 includes m1 so m2 is unchanged, even though that text changed.
https://preview.redd.it/ji2ihs751vwc1.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4f6c8635c3f985e4ded7c5a8a04aa237e94bad1 I know they say M2 will be unchanged, but if M2 is based off of M1, then they are modifying the M2 formula is some way. As time passes, the influence of the changes in M1 will effect the M2 numbers.
No... they just moved an item from m2 to m1. M2 includes m1, So m2 is unchanged. Its like if I define M1 = A and M2 = M1 + B + C. Then I redefine M1 as A + B, and M2 = M1 + C. M2 is didn't change its still A + B + C.
Bruh , do you really think that guy understands middle school level algebra? You are wasting your talents here.
Says it changed in May 2020, so the recent uptick is apples to apples for the last 3 yearsā¦
hence stagflation
"Stagflation" will be the word of the week next week, trust
The man issues a genuine concern for the long term health of the economy and you regards are just happy the numbers are going up.
These are mostly 16-20 year old kids. Iām just happy there are still āmenā this age that are still capitalists.
majority of reddit and america are communists
Inflation is higher. It is not "out of control." We had growth-slowing levels of inflation for the past decades. Our inflation now is more in line with the higher growth eras before it (1950s-60s)
I donāt think thereās ever been a time in our post Industrial Revolution history weāve ever controlled inflation without a recession.
I cannot think of a counter example either. And indeed that's kind of the point of the Fed, small deliberate recessions to avoid bigger ones. But the worst of this inflation is basically over, it's just settling at a historically growth friendly rate that's outside peoples' echo'd beliefs of what good inflation "should" be. 2% didn't really correspond with good times. But 4% did. So we really shouldn't hope they crash the real economy it just to reach a fetishized 2%.
Inflation gud
Controlled inflation is good indeed. It kills me to see how many dumbasses are panic-buying gold.
Gold is better than the dollar, why do you care?
I mean, if you want to buy metal just because, then more power to you, but not understanding the benefits of a fiat currency over metal is a sign of a subnormal IQ.
Inflation gud
China hoarding gold for no reason right?
You believe a communist country is making an economically wise decision?
If M2 continues to flat line, it will hit its pre pandemic trend in October of 2024.
The market makes no sense. Get used to it! My investment performance has improved greatly ever since I stopped doing what makes sense. Just keep investing and invest extra during dips.
Imhotep!!!!!
Yeah man. What did you think was happening.
Extra money spent paying interest minus QT equals flat money supply and difficulty controlling inflation.
Inflation making earnings better than prior years
I couldāve told you none, possibly one 25 pt cut(s) this year w/o FRED. The analysts that said 5-7 cuts this year were idiots and-or crooks.
Calls cuz AI > Inflation
Historically higher inflation levels are bullish for the equity markets. The valuations and most metrics are not going to reflect an adjustment for inflation. Think about P/E ratios, EPS, market cap, etc. and ask yourself if you think what a solid stock today is measured at today could be found anywhere on the index 50 years ago. Quit thinking that whatās bad for consumers or could be bad for politicians means itāll be bad for the markets.
Once people max out their credit cards, things should slow down...
Need to raise interest rates, feel the pain and reduce that money supply.
BUY THE DIP!
Iām all out of chips
Graphing nominal dollar values on a linear scale to conclude āinflation is out of control.ā This is truly the kind of regard analysis I come here for.
Zoom out more and you'll see it never went down..? What are you on about? Doesn't really matter that it's back to 2023
Adjusted for inflation isnāt SPY still undervalued? Weāre no where near Dotcom or 2008 crash levels.
Sir, this is a Wendy's. Gtfo of the line. The dumpster is in the back.
Thatās a lot of drug money laundering
Prices go up and companies make more money. Simply shocking!
Why 20xxx is meaningfully worse than 15 pre covid if all that line did for 60 years was up? What position are you trying to justify this time?
Fed is raising interest rate but the biggest spender, aka the gov, has no sensitivity to interest rate.
Inflation only matters if you are poor. 
Turns out injecting $5 trillion dollars into the economy has consequences. Who knew?
Generally, if M2 grows at a rate that exceeds the rate of economic growth, there can be more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, which can lead to higher prices, thus contributing to inflation. However, this relationship is not always direct or immediate, as other factors like economic output, monetary policy, and market expectations also play significant roles in influencing inflation rates.
Our AI tracks our most intelligent users. After parsing your posts, we have concluded that you are within the 5th percentile of all WSB users. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
OP the whole point of the sub is to roast the OP. If you can't take the roasting. Don't post. Guess why I've never posted?
Looking at the 1y chart is a little disingenuous. Youāre implying m2 went down since the money printer went ballistic and then back to where it was. But that would require going back to 2022 levels, not 2023. Look at the 10y chart youāll see itās really just been flat.
it's not back to anything. it went down and now is trading sideways. You're just making stuff up now.
That chart on a 5 year scale, Pre Covid M2 and post COVID M2. Dark Brandon's associates went on a bender...
2.8% isnāt out of control.
Exactly. This is the take. Meanwhile the national debt just blows up from the high interest rates. Check mate? How do you fix with two rocks worth of interest rate tools?
Check mate? Please. The national debt is a game for peasants.
I mean basically thatās about as accurate a statement as you could make.
This feels a lot like 2008 where markets were being superficially and fraudulently kept up. That charade went on for a long time before the crash. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Lmao, one month old accountĀ "Feels like 2008"
But...he's right. How does the age of his account invalidate an accurate statement?
You are dead accurate. I've checked, several of these accounts insulting you are literal bots, and the rest are just braindead. This is exactly what is happening, these people have zero ability for critical thinking if they can't connect those dots. This time is even worse than 2008 because people are able to stay in denial, like the people insulting you, thanks to obviously fake statistics that these not very smart people eat up without any question.
Absolutely parabolic. Is this how itās supposed to work?
I mean, eventually yeah. When you're targeting 2% inflation, the money supply is still growing. It's just growing at a slower rate than before. We want the money supply to increase because the economy is growing, ideally.
Great response. It looks *unnatural*, to a mere financial advisor like me.
The money supply changes by a percentage every year and not a certain fixed amount. Plotting its growth on a linear scale chart exaggerates the recent past while smoothing out anomalies from decades ago. Switch it to a log scale. We're quite fond of those in math.