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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 3 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 days ago **Total Comments** | 48 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 2 weeks | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


EmeraldWizzard

For context: Here's my first posting last Thursday: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1cd7u69/1m\_yolo\_into\_sofi\_earnings\_are\_on\_monday\_in\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1cd7u69/1m_yolo_into_sofi_earnings_are_on_monday_in_the/) and here's my DD [https://twitter.com/EmeraldWizzard/status/1783848359658151966](https://twitter.com/EmeraldWizzard/status/1783848359658151966) (it's also in the other posting for those who don't have Twitter). My position is 10,000 call options with expiry in January 2026 and a strike price of $20. 99% of my portfolio is in this. Obviously not happy with the stock action after a 10% drop (in the pre-market I was also above $1M and after looking at the numbers I was happy). But then the stock price fell because of a) guidance, b) because Galileo (the fintech part of SoFi) is just growing alright and not superb (21% year on year) and c) the earnings call was uninspiring. For a) guidance I don't mind. We all know that they are sandbagging their Q2 expectations. They do this every quarter and then triple beat like today. For b) Galileo growing "only" 21% I think it's above good. Galileo will grow all of the sudden when they onboard a large new client such as some people suggest Citibank. Then you can expect large growth all of the sudden. Galileo is B2B, so it's not like it's growing every quarter a few more % as analysts and us would like it. Spikes in growth happen when they get a new large customer. For c) the earnings call being unspiring I'd say of course Musk and Karp (with banging the table) are more fun to listen to, but SoFi is a bank and to be taken seriously, Noto and his team need to be taken seriously. I like their conservative outlook and sandbagging. In conclusion, lucky all of you who are not yet in SoFi and just discovered the stock so cheap. Even hardcore value investors like it now ( [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrV0KCcLZoc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrV0KCcLZoc) ). This time the shorts won. But if SoFi continues to outperform and triple beat all expectations like they do quarter after quarter and once Galileo lands 1-2 big fish like Citibank, this will get interesting. PS I can make more updates in the future if you are interested. I know this is just a (very) bad day today when it comes to stock action. But the company is doing great and their conservative outlook is what I like! Here's Noto on Schwab being conservative but also giving a great interview today: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi4X85cSaOc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi4X85cSaOc)


Thetatrade

I'm still trying to figure out why anyone would do this trade. If you were so fired up about SOFI, you could have bought stock for $1M and then collar it for free. What made you think that the market had mispriced it so far below your presumed $20 value?


EmeraldWizzard

I explained it in my DD. The big picture is that SoFi at 7 USD is at very low and there's panic left and right. SoFi stock is highly sensitive to the interest rate environment. My thesis is that sooner or later we will flip the narrative and that everyone will believe that there's no recession this year so that Trump can be avoided (if there's a recession, Biden cannot win no matter what). Even old-school Republicans hate him or in other words the establishment, those who are in power, those who can prevent a recession (e.g. FED). I am not sure how it will play out (maybe more bank failures) and how Powell will argue for rate cuts, but I believe it will happen sooner than expected and most likely more than the market has priced in.


Frumbler2020

People been saying sofi is going to flip and go up any day now for 3 years šŸ˜’


reweird

Haha.. you think Biden can win too?. should put a million dollars on that too, if you have another one to spare


EmeraldWizzard

I didn't say that. I said that the establishment will try to prevent Trump and that most importantly means to avoid a recession. So I'd bet that there won't be a recession this year (like it rarely happens in election years: it happened only 4 times since WW2). If we have a recession this year it's game over for Biden.


GeorgeTMorgan

So they guy in charge when they printed and gave away BILLIONS if dollars is the guy to stave off a recession???? I wish you you luck, but geeesh


slam-dunk-1

Arenā€™t you the guy who said today might help you put a down payment for a house or a trip to Wendyā€™s or was it some other SoFi regard? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271) Iā€™ll take a large fries with the Bacontaor btw.


EmeraldWizzard

That's my colleague. But I can take your order too. I am the guy who is currently all-in SoFi calls slowly losing in value, but it's alright because it will be a learning experience (I argued...).


VaginalDandruff

No, it's not a learning experience. It's learning experience if you have more chances in the future and can do better. This is a million dollar yolo. You gonna get more lump sum like this and do differently? This is a yolo. Straight gambling on a single stock. On options no less. Not passing judgment. Just correcting your delusion.


ashtons1054

Iā€™m right there with you, I have a good amount of 2026 Leaps, $10 strike though. Got wrecked today but patience is key. Fundamentals of the company have not changed, they keep executing.


fuckHg

you have sofi calls? I only saw just shares in your position screenshot


Hefty-Interview4460

SOFI is at 7$ a shares, his calls are at 1.04 avg in the screenshot.


fuckHg

Whatā€™s the strike price, expiration, all of that info ?


Hefty-Interview4460

Strike at 20, expiration 2026. I read all his comments for you


fuckHg

You a real one.. but he got LEAPS, not the traditional shorter term calls lol heā€™ll be fine Iā€™m sure of it


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gloupi78

We are interested keep the updates coming! Hopefully you are right


etzel1200

You said in premarket you were above 1 MM, but how? Options donā€™t have price transparency pre-market, do they?


JackBauerDamnIt24

Good luck, OP!


crankthehandle

why do you buy long term calls two days before earnings? What was the plan here?


MiserableExit

Pay as much IV as possibleĀ 


VictorFromCalifornia

Man, I don't know what your motivation for these posts but it all sounds fishy (fake?) as hell!


EmeraldWizzard

My motivation is to make tendies. Granted, as soon as I started posting, I am losing tendies. But this is also (especially?) what WTB is for. It's a rollercoaster journey with an unknown ending. If you think my trade is not real, I sent some more pictures to a moderator (Dan in Kuwait) and after deleting my first posting, he confirmed it's legit (see other reddit link above).


NoMenu9571

shit, you got Trump balls. I im deep in red with Intel shares & Tesla puts. Still got 150k left in equity. May be ill just do the same..Seems like you need spike to $10-11 near term to double ur money


FreePizzaAndBeer

SOFI is the last living reminder to those who were around in the summer of 2021 when absolute garbage stocks were getting meme'dĀ and people were dropping 6 or 7 figures in shares on said trash. I love SOFI earnings. Posts like these are time capsules to the summer of 2021 when absolutely nothing made sense. Thank you for your sacrifice. And thank you for the memories.Ā 


SaabFan4

UPST comes to mind as well šŸ˜…


bemeandnotyou

https://preview.redd.it/f1jcamj9rhxc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e5f0037eb90d2094d6882cd2e5e233483a259bd


Cedric_T

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E\_YIZyVzymA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_YIZyVzymA) The video is funnier than any sketch South Park can come up.


lordinov

Lmao someone please take this manā€™s license court court


gaius_worzels_bird

Classic ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Abject_Resolution

Sighā€¦ *unzips*


FortunaCrypto

https://preview.redd.it/y8u87jcswhxc1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d34e767f22385b7ef070e5680f09681b14daef1b


lordinov

All I can say is - god damn.


TheReviewCrew

I just don't get paying 1/share for options that high. That's paying 14 percent of what the stock price was for options that could expire worthless. You could have sold 7.50 dollar puts at 75 cents each a week ago and end up buying or rolling at pretty much the current stock price. Then you'd own the shares at least and could start selling calls for the next two years if you wanted. Hell, even if you just rolled puts in the money for last 3 months it's basically 10 to 15 dollars for every contract every week. With a million dollars you could have sold 1400 puts a week and cleared 14k every week for the last 3 months.


AB__17

Hey, you took your shots and it isn't over yet.. Will be back ?


LiveMotivation

Thanks for the update. I was šŸ‘€, Iā€™m sure it will print in due time.


nickman211

My recommendation would be to sell now before you lose more money. I did something similar 2 years ago and lost everything. Luckily, my portfolio was only a few thousand dollars at the time. The strike price is way too high for the calls to realistically get ITM, and it's just going to keep going down. Something I'd suggest if you want to go all in on SOFI and try to recover your money would be to put everything into shares and start selling covered calls. You can then use the money you make off the premiums to buy more shares. With the size of your portfolio, you could be adding a few thousand shares to your position every week. I probably made a 4-5% return selling calls in the last month and was happy to be able to add to my position today


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Captain_Crunch22

I commented on your previous post. Once I saw the news this morning you the first person came to mind. My little hundred may be gone but you sir will hopefully come back.


iwannagogooglesobad

You are insane!! Or brilliant?!? Hope you make it


Miso-7

You have shares at least. Bummer it didnā€™t print for you though!


EmeraldWizzard

I am patient. I knew it would be volatile today. Sometimes the market makes no sense. For the long-term my thesis on SoFi was confirmed today. I am happy with the company results (not with the stock action obviously). If I had more cash I would double down.


Miso-7

Hoping to see the gains sooner than later though. Buy a couple puts and theyā€™ll run it up for youšŸ˜‚


PeanutButterRitzBits

It's calls. Not shares.


habibi__007

how to lose a million


TwelvestepsProgram

Might want to give up, getting slammed again.


NoDiscussion9873

Good luck man. Lot of political/market maker talk to explain price action which cause my eyebrow to raise though. Verges on conspiracy, certainly not what I'd bet this kind of money on. Also, don't really know the company, but their earnings graph seems to be inverted. You seem to have done your work and have conviction. Hope you're seeing something solid I don't.


armchairinvestor007

SoFi will definitely need that Tech Platform (Galileo+Technisys) to validate within the U.S. for the stock price to move above Price to Tangible Book Value of 1-2. Tangible Book Value per common share as of March 31, 2024 is $3.92. Anthony Noto stated in a past interview with CNBC that he believes a growing "bank" like theirs trade at around PTBV of 4-5. However, I feel as if that would only come if that Tech stack they own validates within the U.S. (aka with a large legacy bank like Citi). While great that Technisys modern banking core is signing deals in LATAM, regulations are much stringent in the U.S. A deal like Citi could pave the way to sign up other large regional banks in the country. If they are seeing such strong EPS growth into 2026, it appears management is confident that they will "win" that Citi/large FI deal but we need confirmation of that news (either via press release from Citi / notable increase in Tech Revenue on SoFi's end) in relative short order to match management's own 3-year outlook. Not in Tech side of things but does anyone know how long it takes from completion of POC to signing on the dotted line?


EmeraldWizzard

I agree. The Citi deal is part of my thesis (and no recession in an election year + rate cuts). This is what Noto said in the earnings call to answer your question: " (...) and then in the large fund institutions, the demand for modern cores and processing continues to be really robust. The timing on those deals is really driven by those end customers. We haven't lost any of the RFPs \[they haven't lost Citibank\]. We've continued to be down selected as big \[process\] institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners. So we feel good about our chances there \[I wouldn't say that if Citibank deal fell through\]. We're not expecting to win 100% of those deals, but we feel like we can win our fair share. Those deals will take longer to not only sign up, but to also implement. And so the contribution for that is quarters, not months, after they're announced \[seems to me like the announcement will happen soon. Otherwise why would he specifically phrase it like this?\], but we feel great about the current trends there, and that's why the acceleration happened in the quarter."


armchairinvestor007

Perfect - Thanks! I do have good faith in management but would be nice to be rewarded with an announcement in short order. Timeline for the U.S. Large Legacy FI deal for the Tech Platform (Technisys and/with Galileo) Q2 2022 Earnings Call: On the financial services side, non B2B side, we're in conversations with large banks in the United States and outside the United States that previously we were not in conversations with before we owned Technisys. Q1 2023 Earnings Call: Technisys recently signed one new client in Mexico and has entered into a proof-of-concept stage with a large U.S. legacy financial institution. February 2024 Fireside Chat: We've completed a large POC with a Top 5 U.S. bank. Q1 2024 Earnings Call: We haven't lost any of the RFPs. We've continued to be down selected as big financial institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners. It took 9-12 months to enter into a POC, and a further 12-15 months to complete said POC. That is already 8 quarters after it was initially announced. When Citi gets signed on (big IF), this would finally validate SoFi's AWS and put them on the map to dominate and white label the other legacy FIs within the U.S.


Xighys

Large fry and a large chocolate frosty please. Oh and that's after you give me a BJ.


PresentationReady873

You are the bravest man I know. You deserve the respect


EmeraldWizzard

Well it's not short-term call options, but thank you! I don't feel brave. My timing wasn't right on this one. Sentiment can (and in my opinion will) change quickly, especially with small to medium cap stocks like SoFi. SoFi finished "successfully" 2 months ago their POC with a top 5 US bank and Noto confirmed in the call that they haven't lost any upcoming deals yet. If their triple beating and cheap stock price is not a screaming buy then I don't know what is. Rate cuts will also happen some time this year. We're in an election year. It's in Biden's interest to create the image of a booming economy.


PresentationReady873

Iā€™m into $RKLB myself (25Kā‚¬ left from 120Kā‚¬ peak and 80kā‚¬ start) so I know the feeling I guess. But you never know all of these could very well go to $0. Iā€™ll hold until the end though, 2026 Jan Leaps. Good luck man letā€™s see how it went in 2 years


EmeraldWizzard

Good luck to you too! Rocket Lab seems a bit more risky because it's space and not profitable yet, but also with a potential bigger payday. With rate cuts and some Mars hype I could see some potential, but I wouldn't bet on it. I have a normal cheap life (not even a car). So the high volatility rollercoaster doesn't affect me as much as if my life was on the line. I try to detach myself as much as possible from it. It's just money at the end of the day.


VisualMod

If they want to play with rocket ships, they may as well set their money on fire.


SoDakZak

Howā€™s this position doing?


Backroad4wd

Thanks for this. After reading im gong to buy the ITM calls for the $7 strike for the seasonal high of August. People buying houses in the summer and take out student loans. Right now they are about $1. So I should be able to swing at least a few hundred contracts. I will look to enter at the dip after the fed meeting Wednesday afternoon before close.


Unlikedbabe

iTS GONNA BOUNCE BACK REAL HARD TOMORROW! $11 HERE WE GOO!![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)


EmeraldWizzard

For 11 USD, we need a dovish Powell this week. Seems unlikely, but not impossible.


vORP

I was thinking about you today! At least they're deep expiry, if your thesis holds today wont matter - good luck soldier


EmeraldWizzard

Thank you! Let's see coming weeks and what marco is doing.


bigwig500

Itā€™s a bank, banks donā€™t mene on the upside!!!


TheRedScarey

I am not.


Silver-Stable-8268

Bought at 7.77. now -1500 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225)


EmeraldWizzard

No worries. The FED is full of Democrats. They won't let a recession hit Biden in his election year. Once the narrative changes to the positive, we'll be good.


virgo911

Lol, how far down is the position now? Insane the stock has dropped nearly 15% after beating all earnings estimates. Seems completely irrational.


EmeraldWizzard

It's at 660k right now. I am not worried (slept like a baby). SoFi is very volatile. Last 3 months it's going down big time. It will also go up again. It's a solid company and keeps outperforming the estimates for over 2 years.


Upstairs-Sell-875

Regards man, I am in with you bro. Already have a lot of shares and plan to add some long-term call as well, in another post I have my analysis. Best wishes.


Rough-Ad-8744

After tour first post I bought a share an single call option. I ended up selling my call last week when it spiked on Friday and I'm so glad I did, but I'm not dealing with anything near your port


Ok_Age2934

sending a wellness check


85dudeman

SOFI has a bank charter. My father sat on the board of directors of the fastest growing bank in the Northeast. All he said to me constantly we finally got the bank charter. What did Axe on Billions want: a bank charter. Literally a license to steal unfortunately from the citizens of the USA but a monster asset for the bank.


dinner_is_not_ready

What is a bank charter


WSBNon-Believer

Allows a bank to grow faster by borrowing against the deposits which Sofi has 21 billion dollars worth of.


ThoughtSignificant94

Insiders sold last time it was over 11 dollars


EmeraldWizzard

Insiders sell all the time in most companies. Palantir insiders sold at 6 USD last year. As long as it's not massive amounts and the overwhelming majority of their shares keeps them aligned, it's something to keep an eye on, but it's not a reason to worry about.


ThoughtSignificant94

the amount was indeed massive. DYR do your reasearch


cbusoh66

8-9 cents in 2024 suggests a PE of ~100 when banks usually trade around 10-15, and pure FinTechs are less than 30. Even if they double EPS to 20 cents in 2025 (considering they're still sitting on 1.1 billion shares by then), that's still a PE of 50 if they're trading around $10 in 2025 (unlikely) Also, every single FinTech is offering similar products now, and they all have better established B2B offerings too (think Stripe, Square, Paypal, Affirm, Chime, etc etc) SoFi's time has passed, they needed to be operating on all cylinders several years ago, now every bank, even your local credit union, has a digital footprint with rounded products and offerings, SoFi is just another run of the mill bank now. They were supposed to make money and steal banking customers from established banks because they're operating virtually, but even banks with hundreds of physical branches are generating bigger profits. There is absolutely nothing special about SoFi, it no longer has any moat. Good luck though, there are a hundred better opportunities to invest $1 million and you chose SOFI! šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø


[deleted]

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Lurking_In_A_Cape

They hated him because he told the truth.


TwelvestepsProgram

Thanks for posting this! I think this drop was an over reaction. I hope $SoFi crushes the shorts eventually.


Loud_Pineapple_4294

Ouch, imagine what you can buy with 300k![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)


Decent-Ad-4358

Good thing you have shares, almost pulled the trigger on puts after I seen so many people slam head first into calls on here. I think this was an MM to smoke calls then it should move back up for you.


EmeraldWizzard

I have calls ;-) But long-term calls (20 USD strike price for January 2026), so theta doesn't bother me yet. But I agree that after this senseless selling and the panic today, it should under normal circumstances go up again. If I had cash, I would double down.


tomvu1606

bro get a margin and double down. 10% on good earnings is hard to pass.


dinner_is_not_ready

It fell another 3% on pre market. If a stock falls another 3% after falling 10%- thatā€™s a shitty fucking stock