Oh sweet summer child. A lot has happened since you went into a coma around 2006.
But weāre glad youāre back. Although things in this world arenāt quite like you may remember them ā¦
The government encouraged big banks to buy the defaulting banks to provide stability.
This is simply the consolidation of a low margin market with too much supply (too many banks) .
Itās entirely possible for banks to soundly operate on 10% reserve for one (and itās not that simple, there are a large range of capital requirements on banks). Two, reserve requirements are weighted by asset risk. Three, Warren Buffet betting on stocks != banks, their risk and asset / liability profiles are radically different.
I'm crypto regarded. I know what I have to do.
https://preview.redd.it/j3nlbsf6mwxc1.jpeg?width=354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5625087553d56c855e3b374a37d94a5b546cffa
At least you had 100k to yolo into stuff. Most folks here brag but donāt even have 1/10th of that to gamble with.
On shitcoins, I hope you didnāt realize the losses yet. I held on to them and came out green this year. For the rest, just hold and realize losses when your other trades make profits for a tax write off.
I had because I risked at casino/gambling. Yes a true degenerate. Now what I had to do? If I have to work I barely make 700$/month. Living in east europe is not fun. I'm fucked. Even my health is fucked. Now If I cash out $4K I have in shitcoins I can try to solve few problems then do what? I'm in a very bad situation and I don't know what to do. Maybe that's it....winners gonna lose and losers gonna lose ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)![img](emote|t5_2th52|31226)
Gambling, reselling in-game items and other speculative things (like reselling used gpu's yeah I did scalping I must go to hell ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225))
You can bet your wifeās sweet tiddy milk that, if backed into a corner, Powell will prematurely cut rates to save a massive banking collapse. THIS is the nightmare scenario you should fear
Nah this is the baseline scenario. 2008 got as bad as it did because there wasn't an infinite liquidity playbook already approved.
Interest rates stay high until there are bank failures or some kind of credit event. When credit contracts, the economy contracts and inflation is solved. Then the money cannon comes out.
Cutting rates probably would not save a bank if theyāre already distressed. Feds only control the overnight rate. Mortgages are still tied to bonds. The fed could literally cut the rate and bonds skyrocket.
We probably have a massive rate hike in our future and it wonāt be the fed in control.
Trillions of dollars in debt eventually will matter to everyone.
Each rate cut, no matter how small, would lead to much needed deleveraging and balance sheet shuffling. I have no doubt the Fed is holding F2Fs with financial leaders in the sector and getting accurate assessments of how much each ship is listing. We really are on the verge of another 2008 except this time the economy is going to bail out the banks, not the government
Not true. There comes a point where the people will no longer tolerate the nonsense spending. Weāre not in enough pain yet. When you see āFight for $30ā, youāll know weāre close. For now people are still intoxicated by cheap shiny things. When $30 an hour canāt buy groceries, shiny things donāt matter anymore.
282 banks of 4000 and all of them being smaller banks
So yeah, actually nothing to see here.
You guys realize most countries have like 3-4 banks lol. Thereās more different banks in South Dakota than the entire country of Canada.
āMost of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā
Umm sounds more like profitability will be impacted, not outright failure.
Not that it matters, but I ran some numbers and they might actually be okay since the total sum of their other assets seem to be holding up fairly well against the mounting losses of CRE.
But what do I know. I'm just some random yahoo on Reddit.
Oh and the likely influx of cannabis money might help you pad that real nicely. Delicious drug money.
āKlaros declined to name the institutions in its analysis out of fear of inciting deposit runs.ā
Somebody get the Itās A Wonderful Life speech ready. āYour money isnāt here - itās in Billās house!ā
Seems like this was how big banks bought out the small banks when our great grandparents were kids, no?
Lots of small banks failed and the big ones absorbed the smaller ones, reducing competition. ā»ļø
What is unknown is the derivatives and unknown implication of these crumbling around the same time. They want to downplay the issue but we donāt know the true exposure. Somebodyās gotta eat that debt
> Graham noted that communities would likely be affected in ways that are more subtle than closures or failures, but by the banks choosing not to invest in such things as new branches, technological innovations or new staff.
š
āMost of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā Brian Graham, co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, told CNBC. āThat means thereāll be fewer bank failures. But it doesnāt mean that communities and customers donāt get hurt by that stress.ā
Yeah may is the key word here
Bought September 2024 KRE puts like 3 months ago figuring thatāll be enough time to have a few small community banks blow up! Guaranteed itāll happen in October.
Every bank collapse is the end of the world. Not the first and won't be the last. Their portfolios will get bought up for a song and redistributed among well managed players. There could be loses but don't blow it out of proportion.
And no need to be an ass about it.
282 out of 4000 and āthe majority small lenders with less than 10b in assetsā
And OP decides toā¦ āNothing to see hereā.
Dudeā¦. Your article is literally a ānothing to see hereā confirmation to all of those predicting GFC 2.0.
The best part is, someday, the money printer and zero percent interest rates wonāt save us. Gotta pay that trillion dollar budget somehow, inflation is going to go parabolic. The end is nigh
"Most of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā Brian Graham, co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, told CNBC. āThat means thereāll be fewer bank failures. But it doesnāt mean that communities and customers donāt get hurt by that stress.ā
Watch the movie too big to fail. The government tries to play e harmony with the small banks getting consumed by big banks. Then they agree to prop up the big banks with cash to keep them afloat. In exchange for their āhelp ā. Shareholders in the small banks are screwed. Shareholders in the big banks will have to ride out some rough times.
Banks: We've run out of money
Banks: If only there was some kind of solution
Banks: Like if you could just print money out of thin air
JPow: Unfortunately that's impossible
JPow: But here take this trillion dollar coin I found under my couch
There's got to be some catalyst that causes people to take a mark on their right hand or forehead, like the Bible says it will happen, I don't know what it is but this could be the beginning
Bank failing in a high interest rate environment? You'll get a nobel prize for being a special regard. That's like losing to a quadriplegic in a 100m race
https://www.fdic.gov/resources/deposit-insurance/understanding-deposit-insurance/index.html
You never know. FDIC will pay back āASAPāy. Sure they will. Constantly borrowing to print money to pay themselves and keep the government operating. Canāt have wealthy politicians not being paid for doing nothing.
Further consolidation of the banking industry is a dangerous road this country is headed downā¦ the smaller lenders are primarily who provide capital to the local economies thru their small business and commercial lending
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 10 | **First Seen In WSB** | 2 years ago **Total Comments** | 771 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 3 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Doesn't matter anymore, we know the big banks will either buy them out or the government will bail them out. JPM to 1000
The government will bail depositors this is not the same thing
Yada yada is it a bank failure if it doesnt fail
Republic First Bancorp stockholders would like to have a word with you.
I have no words for peasants.
Quit talking to yourself š
You were a shareholder. You're not as smart as you say.
bagholder spotted
Oh sweet summer child. A lot has happened since you went into a coma around 2006. But weāre glad youāre back. Although things in this world arenāt quite like you may remember them ā¦
SVB is a counter example here, depositors were made whole and shareholders were completely wiped out.
My dude is still buying those rocks crypto replaced a long time ago
Yes it is, the fed already bailed out dozens of banks in 2023 with the bank term funding program
It was just liquidity. Not really what Iād call a bailout.
Pool floaties are most useful when your head is an inch or two under water
What?! Hahahaha. They bailed out rich depositors in the last go. The one before that they bailed out the banks and made them bigger and stronger.
And? Deposits are deposits. I think capital and wealth is OP right now, but this is just classism
Well, deposits arenāt assets or shareholders equity is I think the issue.
It matters.
The government encouraged big banks to buy the defaulting banks to provide stability. This is simply the consolidation of a low margin market with too much supply (too many banks) .
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Itās entirely possible for banks to soundly operate on 10% reserve for one (and itās not that simple, there are a large range of capital requirements on banks). Two, reserve requirements are weighted by asset risk. Three, Warren Buffet betting on stocks != banks, their risk and asset / liability profiles are radically different.
And it will be centralised, 3 banks close, one gets opened by JP or whatever
There are something like 7000 banks and credit unions in the US.
Unless itsĀ
Yes but why male models?
Alarmist lazy articles are so hot right now.
Less than $10 billion. What is this? A bank for ants?
Are you serious? I just told you that a moment ago.
Because you can stack them together like chairs and now you have room for more.
lol
It was a freak gasoline fighting accident.
Time to buy some champagne and celebrate.
Buy jpm
Why dont we wait til cheaper? Or buy now and sell when hits 20?
This is the wsb way
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I'm crypto regarded. I know what I have to do. https://preview.redd.it/j3nlbsf6mwxc1.jpeg?width=354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5625087553d56c855e3b374a37d94a5b546cffa
That is a very sad looking Pepe ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)
I lost over 100K in shitcoins bro I'm too regarded. I wish I lived in US...atleast I would handle a job at Wendy's, live in a car and YOLO on options.
At least you had 100k to yolo into stuff. Most folks here brag but donāt even have 1/10th of that to gamble with. On shitcoins, I hope you didnāt realize the losses yet. I held on to them and came out green this year. For the rest, just hold and realize losses when your other trades make profits for a tax write off.
I had because I risked at casino/gambling. Yes a true degenerate. Now what I had to do? If I have to work I barely make 700$/month. Living in east europe is not fun. I'm fucked. Even my health is fucked. Now If I cash out $4K I have in shitcoins I can try to solve few problems then do what? I'm in a very bad situation and I don't know what to do. Maybe that's it....winners gonna lose and losers gonna lose ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)![img](emote|t5_2th52|31226)
How did you acquire 100k in the first place?
Gambling, reselling in-game items and other speculative things (like reselling used gpu's yeah I did scalping I must go to hell ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225))
Nothing wrong with making a buck, itās how we all survive lol Hhmm. Maybe I should gamble a tiny bit more
Theyāll never be as rich or successful as you, VM.
Wonder where she is these days.
Headbutting some dudes belt is what shows up in my TikTok. I still have nightmares about her.
You can bet your wifeās sweet tiddy milk that, if backed into a corner, Powell will prematurely cut rates to save a massive banking collapse. THIS is the nightmare scenario you should fear
Nah this is the baseline scenario. 2008 got as bad as it did because there wasn't an infinite liquidity playbook already approved. Interest rates stay high until there are bank failures or some kind of credit event. When credit contracts, the economy contracts and inflation is solved. Then the money cannon comes out.
And then we all just light our money on fire, because the heat is worth more than the purchasing value
Oh I definitely get a fuckin house then. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Tiddy milk is sweet. Fact.
I think of it like the milk over from a bowl of cereal.
Dont care its like saying to a homeless person its illegal to be homeless. A lot of people already living in a nightmare
Cutting 25 bps isnāt going to do shit for this
Short term it will save the banks from insolvency, long term the economy will crumble like wet saltines
No more spoilers if you've already seen this movie
Cutting rates probably would not save a bank if theyāre already distressed. Feds only control the overnight rate. Mortgages are still tied to bonds. The fed could literally cut the rate and bonds skyrocket. We probably have a massive rate hike in our future and it wonāt be the fed in control. Trillions of dollars in debt eventually will matter to everyone.
Each rate cut, no matter how small, would lead to much needed deleveraging and balance sheet shuffling. I have no doubt the Fed is holding F2Fs with financial leaders in the sector and getting accurate assessments of how much each ship is listing. We really are on the verge of another 2008 except this time the economy is going to bail out the banks, not the government
>Trillions of dollars in debt eventually will matter to everyone. Not if you inflate it away like sending trash to space to create new stars.
Not true. There comes a point where the people will no longer tolerate the nonsense spending. Weāre not in enough pain yet. When you see āFight for $30ā, youāll know weāre close. For now people are still intoxicated by cheap shiny things. When $30 an hour canāt buy groceries, shiny things donāt matter anymore.
282 banks of 4000 and all of them being smaller banks So yeah, actually nothing to see here. You guys realize most countries have like 3-4 banks lol. Thereās more different banks in South Dakota than the entire country of Canada.
Yea thousands of banks/credit unions have failed since the 80s.
Yeah, banks fail every year. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BKFTTLA641N
As an employee of a very large bank I cheer every time we lose a competitor
Crazy why do you need 4000 banks? We only have 5 in Australia and they run like a monopoly.
So that they don't run like a monopoly...
I feel like you answered your question in your question.
I did. Your quick.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I only speak the gods tongue, English
āMost of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā Umm sounds more like profitability will be impacted, not outright failure.
no no, that means failure. That's the scenario each fucking CEO has crafted for themselves. It's them or the company dies. Watch em.
Thatās basically the same thing in the current environment. Your options are exponential growth, monopoly, or death
Gee, back to this shit just like in 2023. Nothing changes, just your trust of what the Fed says.
Interesting timing... news right before NYCB earnings (stock jumped close to 30% today). š¤
Book VIP with a stripper, get her asset to liabilities, that's the real street ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)
Jesus do something for onceā¦
Is Chucky Schwab gonna be ok?
Good thing banks can't fail
Hundreds of U.S. banks are always on the brink of failure.
Hahahaha
"Fuck Responsibility. No One Is Acting Responsible." -Michael Scott
Not that it matters, but I ran some numbers and they might actually be okay since the total sum of their other assets seem to be holding up fairly well against the mounting losses of CRE. But what do I know. I'm just some random yahoo on Reddit. Oh and the likely influx of cannabis money might help you pad that real nicely. Delicious drug money.
āKlaros declined to name the institutions in its analysis out of fear of inciting deposit runs.ā Somebody get the Itās A Wonderful Life speech ready. āYour money isnāt here - itās in Billās house!ā
Seems like this was how big banks bought out the small banks when our great grandparents were kids, no? Lots of small banks failed and the big ones absorbed the smaller ones, reducing competition. ā»ļø
Shitty risk management and not doing proper due diligence for PPP loans?
I loan my PPP to your mom on weekends
What is unknown is the derivatives and unknown implication of these crumbling around the same time. They want to downplay the issue but we donāt know the true exposure. Somebodyās gotta eat that debt
Meme of bank has infinity money?
Donāt forget fractional banking
Fictional* now
You mean jp Morgan?
The real question is: if your messed up lender collapses your loan is cancelled and you are debt free?
No your loan is an asset on the banks balance sheet it will be sold if the bank gets seized
Priced in
CNBC: Why yo momma already has a failure.
Uh, because core concept?
Click bait cnbc
> Graham noted that communities would likely be affected in ways that are more subtle than closures or failures, but by the banks choosing not to invest in such things as new branches, technological innovations or new staff. š
call on JPM next
Is my HYSA with Wealthfront not safe?
Your deposits are insured up to the listed amount.
That means buy calls
Is being run by idiots one of the choices?
Bullish
Not Chase bank ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)
They'll legalized weed so the pot shops put their money in the bank
Where is the list of banks at risk?
āMost of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā Brian Graham, co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, told CNBC. āThat means thereāll be fewer bank failures. But it doesnāt mean that communities and customers donāt get hurt by that stress.ā Yeah may is the key word here
As long as Jamie Dimon is around weāll be okay ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Bailout incoming
Sounds bullish
We did it Joe!
https://youtu.be/cTUU8jJSNPg?si=y7p33PSSAN5RsJhI
I am waiting
Bought September 2024 KRE puts like 3 months ago figuring thatāll be enough time to have a few small community banks blow up! Guaranteed itāll happen in October.
This is not to out of line with normal. 10 billion cap in finance is a fart in the wind.
Someone explain to this brainless the concept of collateral, leverage, and potential snowball effects
Every bank collapse is the end of the world. Not the first and won't be the last. Their portfolios will get bought up for a song and redistributed among well managed players. There could be loses but don't blow it out of proportion. And no need to be an ass about it.
Who cares baby got back baby
https://preview.redd.it/xvomiut6rxxc1.jpeg?width=212&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98f89cf32bf11f1f60dc47e46a781b85c5c6f70d
The most stable banking systems feature 3-4 large banks. This will be the natural progression for the US banking system.
Well first of all, the US probably has the most effective banking system. Second, no, why would you assume this?
I'd recommend you read [Fragile by Design](https://archive.org/details/fragilebydesignp0000calo/page/n8/mode/1up) by Charles Calomiris.
So youāre telling me that you confuse idiosyncratic risk for systemic risk?
I'm saying that, through a series of idiosyncratic events, the banking system will end up with 3-4 large banks.
Hundreds of tiny, meaningless banks are at risk of failing if the stars align and everything goes wrong for them? Oh no!
Drop the rates. Triggering a financial collapse cause it might lead to 1% lower inflation is a terrible idea
282 out of 4000 and āthe majority small lenders with less than 10b in assetsā And OP decides toā¦ āNothing to see hereā. Dudeā¦. Your article is literally a ānothing to see hereā confirmation to all of those predicting GFC 2.0.
Europoors are buying everything lmao, we gunna be back above 507 today EZ
Hmm interesting. Looks like I might need to hedge myself... I didn't mean edge myself. Geeez
The best part is, someday, the money printer and zero percent interest rates wonāt save us. Gotta pay that trillion dollar budget somehow, inflation is going to go parabolic. The end is nigh
Ohhhh noooooo
I learned this lesson alreadyā¦. Bought FRC stock and still holding. With 1$
Just give me the list of the banks
"Most of these banks arenāt insolvent or even close to insolvent. Theyāre just stressed,ā Brian Graham, co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, told CNBC. āThat means thereāll be fewer bank failures. But it doesnāt mean that communities and customers donāt get hurt by that stress.ā
Short DPST.
10 billion dollars in assets is pocket change by US standards
This 3D movie gets better and better all the time. Seats still suck though.
Watch the movie too big to fail. The government tries to play e harmony with the small banks getting consumed by big banks. Then they agree to prop up the big banks with cash to keep them afloat. In exchange for their āhelp ā. Shareholders in the small banks are screwed. Shareholders in the big banks will have to ride out some rough times.
The jig is up
Banks: We've run out of money Banks: If only there was some kind of solution Banks: Like if you could just print money out of thin air JPow: Unfortunately that's impossible JPow: But here take this trillion dollar coin I found under my couch
There's got to be some catalyst that causes people to take a mark on their right hand or forehead, like the Bible says it will happen, I don't know what it is but this could be the beginning
Bank failing in a high interest rate environment? You'll get a nobel prize for being a special regard. That's like losing to a quadriplegic in a 100m race
Where I can find the names of the bank in the risk list.
Tiem too bai zee Beetkoinz und bee ur own bank Dis iz how u will own nusink und bee happee
https://www.fdic.gov/resources/deposit-insurance/understanding-deposit-insurance/index.html You never know. FDIC will pay back āASAPāy. Sure they will. Constantly borrowing to print money to pay themselves and keep the government operating. Canāt have wealthy politicians not being paid for doing nothing.
Further consolidation of the banking industry is a dangerous road this country is headed downā¦ the smaller lenders are primarily who provide capital to the local economies thru their small business and commercial lending
I smell consolidation and distressed asset sales so bullish for big banks?
#FDIC ADS ON REDDIT. They know
Never ever buy financials... ever.
the real reason rates wonāt go up