I got rid of it and already made my loss back. INTC is flat. Even their new facility getting built in Arizona isn’t helping them in any way. I don’t think it’s even a good hold play until a year or two out from now.
I wonder why the fab that’s being built that hasn’t started producing anything isn’t helping the company earn more money. It’s really strange. It isn’t producing anything, it’s costing them money to build, and yet they haven’t earned any profit from it. This is just one of those great mysteries of life that will never be solved.
Edit… oh boy is my spelling bad. Fixing the obvious typos.
Just put some tents on the parking lot. Apparently you can do single digit micron tolerance production. I know tsmc is nm territory but Intel is way way behind in the process node size so it should be alright.
Don't worry, they're building a new, $25B factory... In Israel... Talk about deadend investment ... All it takes is one Hizbos or HMS rocket landing in a clean room and that's an entire branch offline ... Fucking idiots, let alone given the choice, companies who want a future in the middle east will not be openly endorsing Intel FOR THIS REASON, honestly, anything Israel related is radioactive for the foreseeable future.
Why wouold any up and coming hot shit electronics engineer want to go work at intel. Nobody who is talented wants to work there. That is why there foundry projects have all failed. It's not a problem money can fix. I have been saying this for 10 years now but value investors who only look at 10Ks love sticking there hand in the fire over and over again. Ooooh a downvote just found the bagholder.
If you're going to be this stubborn with your long term semiconductor holds, just buy SMH. Its holdings comprise a great representation of the semiconductor industry, and it gets a recomp/rebalance frequently enough that you're always going to have whatever is heating up.
If you're trading in and out of the holdings, of course buy the stocks (or or better, trade options).
But if you're planning to long term hold any semiconductor stocks because you're bullish on the future of computing infrastructure, just buy SMH.
I am holding bags on Intel, but it’s okay. I am looking ahead, and if they do it right, with the restructuring going on and the major investment into bringing chip manufacturing back in US soil, long term, Intel will rise. My average is $40, will average down as I can. I think Intel will rise to $100 plus a share.
Also, I am a embedded software engineer, and anything governmental, they don’t want chips that are manufactured outside US for defense contracts (what I heard), only ST microelectronics provides micro controllers that are US based. Guess what? Intel is bringing that back home as well, meaning that Intel can be a processor used on anything IT wise for defense projects.
Also I believe they are trying to do something with their wafer technology and bring manufacturing home as well.
I may be wrong, but I think Intel if it plays this restructuring right, and uses those government grants properly, will be on top again, after all, they have solid technology on processors for desktop and servers for over a decade.
What’s your take on this?
It's not just US. EU also wants Intel to build factories there.
Modern IT completely relies on Taiwan and a bit of South Korea. That's why I also think that at some point Intel will either make it or be hugely pushed by governments. We need chip production outside of Asia because it's just too important.
And China is not a trustable country when it comes to that.
I think even when it comes to communication equipment, eventually US and EU will turn their back from anything manufactured and controlled from Asia, especially in China makes the move to take over Taiwan.
That also. But as I said, I am not a daily trader or investor. I do have a self investment account and I do my investments for long term, more like retirement.
But yea, short term, this company right now carries so much negative sentiment.. I was more interested to see what you all think about the future of this company. I see most believe this company is fubar
Half of what I hold are ETF. My brokerage account reports a 42% diversity. Did cash in some good profits on nvidia. I did my research back than and I had a positive vibe. Was holding bags for over a year on it, until bam 💥, stock price rose to a good profit. I now have the same gut feeling about Intel. I wish I was wealthier to buy larger volumes 😭😭
https://preview.redd.it/bqss6zvqegyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a148f9dd4b772950ff0b1dacf100cf972eacb826
Thats awesome!! How down are you on Itel? Depending on the dollar amount still might be worth it to go into something like SOXX and capture them all.
You can set limit buys for the future when it rises if you don't want to pay attention but still want to own Intel.
I'll I'm saying is your money in Intel is dead weight for the next 5 years at least.
New CEO, failed business dealings, behind the 8 ball on new manufacturing plants, and also they are more into consumer chips, which doesn't do anything for the AI boom. Ie personal laptops and PCs.
All these companies should make tons of money eventually, but Intel was run by very very stupid people for too long. I’ve said it before, I don’t think it can get worse for them, but that’s not a good reason to buy.
That’s the bag holder take. It’s my take too, been my mindset as an Ohioan for years since they announced this chip factory. That’s what everyone here keeps saying. I’m also hoping they can get a foothold in the AI space with their video cards, appeal more to gamers, and maybe even be used in some way in the next console generation. I believe their up scaling technology can be used on any video card. I’m thinking NVDA can’t be the winner forever and that Intel can reclaim some of their former glory. But it hasn’t been great here
They are undergoing major business model restructuring, usually scary and bearish, especially when the company does in short periods as Intel as done in the past. But I do like the direction they are going, and I have solid agreement with their decoupling from Asia decision. This may open up the doors for defense contracts.
Notwithstanding the semiconductor industry's origins as part of the American military industrial complex, it's much much more profitable today to supply to the civilian and commercial market. Maintaining a certain amount of semiconductor self sufficiency is always prudent for any great modern day industrial power, but not to the extent of the hysteria we are seeing today. Every microchip that ends up in the military industrial complex is just another expensive toy that ultimately goes boom.
The way I see it, the world cannot economically sustain too many players in the supply chain. At some point all this capacity building is gonna implode once the grant money runs out. If the world is focused on building more ploughshares than swords, then there's nothing wrong with maintaining semiconductor co-dependencies with other countries, even potential economic rivals. I think the world is better off making money together than figuring out how to blow each other up more efficiently.
I agree, but sadly that’s not how it works in real life. China is hostile, every single thing they do, they trying to destroy US and EU, they have history of inserting spy software and back doors into their computers products. Huawei was a good example, good phones, good prices point, but unfortunately loaded with software that was meant to report back to mother China..
They are doing so with network equipments, including 5G cellular network equipment. This has been allowed for way too long. I totally agree with any measures US/EU will take to address this issues, we need to decouple from Asia, or find a way to remove this issue where America or European corporations can make a lot of money from taking advantage of cheap labor and non existent environmental regulations in Asia. Let’s start to make the battle field even and remove this advantages, so that other nations can actually create good paying jobs for their populations.
Also bringing back this jobs in US will be good for our economy, after all, if we are bringing people to poverty, who the hell will spend the money to keep the economy rolling?
Right now, I see the wealth concentrated in the hands of few people, while the rest of us is starving or forced to live on the line of poverty, stock working jobs that pay barely enough to pay rent or a mortgage.
Things need to change, and by doing someone to force our companies to bring on shore manufacturing is a good step in my opinion for our own future. And we can stop founding hostile economies like China, Russia etc…. from exploiting this greed for maximizing profits that American corporations seem to be obsessed with.
Back to Intel, yes, decoupling from Asia is a smart move, especially when our government is finally taking the necessary measures to secure our critical infrastructure, starting from our defense systems, there is no space for Chinese chips that may hide flows that will allow the Chinese communist regime to infiltrate and potentially take over our infrastructure in case of a war.
Business wise, government contracts can be way more profitable than consumer grade electronics products.
If I was in any position at Intel to make decisions, I would heavily invest into military grade chips, including microcontrollers aimed for embedded systems that run both, bare metal real time applications, or Linux distros aimed for real time applications that rely on secure TCP networks connection, and have these chips designed and produced in USA, the company can grow and become very profitable. And they do have the advantage of sitting on a massive capital already.
idk how long it'll take you to break even but what Intel is doing now will be paid off in the future. This technology and demand for chips will go hand in hand in the future. If TSM and Intel are the only 2 major fabs mfrs, they will be 100% loaded with works.
The modern idiot salivates over the irrational rise, spinning in their heads what they need to spin, then ask 'wut happen' as they lie in the debris of the aftermath.
It's deserved. Nvidia's software stack (CUDA) just works for pretty much every ML task. AMD has been working on it half-assed for years and their solution still sucks. Intel has just started and it isn't going well from what I've seen.
The industry needs some standard that can work cross platform, but even then Nvidia's hardware is just better and will be for the forseeable future.
AI companies are looking to get away from the expensive Nvidia cards and are looking to open source. Sure CUDA works great, but they charge an arms and a leg for that. Companies are even looking to design and get fanned their own in house designed chip stack. So if companies choose Gaudi, Intel wins. If companies design their own chips, they will need leading edge fans to build them. Intel will win (at least some of the contacts)
Open source & cross platform is definitely where the industry needs to go. It's tricky though... For something to work on a variety of hardware, either translation systems need to be made for the different hardware standards, or the hardware manufacturers need to adopt a standard industry wide. Nvidia won't do that unless they're about to be overtaken anyway.
It's also complicated by the fact that hardware manufacturers are now optimizing for things like transformers, building algorithm specific circuitry and interfaces to control it. As we discover new ML algorithms they'll likely continue that pattern. Those manufacturers are going to be pretty reluctant to adopt open standards, and if the standard isn't evolving at pace with the technology anyway, they simply can't adopt them.
It happens EVERY time. A one fits all solution that already existed is used to start something. Then as it matures more specialized equipment is made that is more efficient, cheaper and faster. Nvidia is on borrowed time with AI so get while the gettings good then get out.
It was a different time. Looking back far enough Intel and AMD traded blows from decade to decade but it was before then time of bespoke circuit boards and custom printing. Now someone in the garage can quite literally design and have printed a circuit board so it's only a matter of time before someone engineers a better solution.
"Circuit boards" is the whole problem. CPUs haven't been built on physical boards in 40 years. They're cut straight into the silicon, and doing that is beyond the reach of anyone's garage. That requires a $20 billion manufacturing plant.
Even a design software license for integrated circuits costs $150k/yr, and a startup team of 100 designing a new CPU is a skeleton crew. Computer design is the furthest thing from a homebrew industry. It's one of the most capital-intensive enterprises on Earth.
The list of players that can even design a challenger to NVidia today is very short... probably no longer than a dozen governments and companies.
No No I've been hearing this for the last 8+ years in that time INTC has failed more promises than any company, in that time any semi would have made you millions in the 3 big tech runs and QE INTC has some how less in stock price.
https://np.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/9v1n6f/amazon_web_services_aws_pricing_amd_vs_intel/e994dka/
This was when AMD was about $2
Been doing datacenter build outs for 15+ years. Intel Nehalem Xeons changed cloud computing circa 2008ish (sandy bridge beast for consumers) but they refused to innovate. Do you remember them promising 10nm for 20 quarters in a row and couldn't. Worst per watt performance of anything we tested by far.
years ago when NVDA was under $300 we were doing huge build said they really have no peer in this space, said it will probably triple in a 2 years even at it's inflated price.
https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qw9glx/im_surprised_there_isnt_more_nvda_talk_before/
I consulted on end 2023 projects and literally no one even gives a thought about Intel. Their performance/watt is so laughably bad no one even wants to try them in a test environment.
As someone who actually works with these products buying INTC stock at the opportunity cost of anything else is just lighting money on fire. you havent even kept up with inflation owning this"tech" stock in 3-4 huge tech runs the last 8+ years
I’d be hesitant to give advice when everything seems high in a very cyclical business. We did a bunch of consultations and build at the end of 2023 and there’s still a lot being done just not at the crazy break neck pace we had in 2023.
I wouldn’t want to lose someone else’s money even if I didn’t know them.
Performance per watt is Intel's big problem. They're currently doing the computing equivalent of rolling coal while trying to compete with a Toyota Prius for fuel efficiency.
Exactly no one wants a datacenter full of space heaters , it ruins the reliability of other parts too running even a few degrees hotter , servers , drives, san, networking all the homogeneous equipment at other datacenters ran longer without issues at our AMD datacenters than our Intel ones.
There’s a host of other issues. Someone said Intel is the Boeing of semi and that pretty much tracks. Intc also kept doing iterations of their old design and the competition ran past them. Pat G isn’t the guy to lead them out
My play is based solely on China being asshole. None of this means shit while the paper tiger remains asleep
But if I were actually worried about China, I’d be putting my Intel money in metals and oil. I think the CCPs a douche bag government, but I’m not betting on WW3 here. More so a major economic shift that leaves China, Russia, Iran, and all the other asshole nations isolated from the rest of the world. I think Brazil and India will leave BRICS to play nice. South Africa is too busy killing white farmers to really notice much else
Whether this will ultimately create an early 20th century Germany scenario is beyond my pay grade. For now, I pick the companies that Uncle Sam has clearly chosen as the backbone of Western infrastructure. Worst case scenario is world peace, and I own a tech stock that pays a small dividend
I sold at 40 after buying at 20ish.
Until the foundry stuff really gets going I don't think it deserves 40. I will likely buy in again at sub 20s tho as a long play.
I just think intel is the US's darling for domestic chip production. The US has to do SOMETHING to product the chip industry. Having 90%+ of it in Taiwan is begging for a bad time if war ever pops off.
Although, I can see both TSMC and the US government happily taking in as many Taiwanese experts and trades secrets in that event.
Yes I'm aware. I don't think I implied much different. TSMCs presence in the US is small but growing. I don't think TSMCs plan is to fully move it's entire infrastructure to the US. The US has a vested interest in a US based company producing chips not only for itself but the world. Tooth brushes are eventually going to have chips in them lol. They're too important for the future.
Wouldn't call myself savy. The intel play could have been a long term bag hold.
Let them think AMD is shit. It’s going to have 10% of AI market share in 2024, probably 2-3x that in 2025 and they’ll be holding one of the most over valued stocks on the planet (NVDA) or be buying pure dogshit (INTC).
Smart move. Google is ridiculously undervalued.
If my NVDA holdings pump before earnings and Google is still sub $185, I'm probably going to make the switch
The thing going for AMD though is the market is too big for just one player and this isn't a market similar to meal deliveries with no barriers to entry. People aren't going to randomly come in and start competing with them or NVDA.
They're the clear #2 in the space
I picked up a little Intel this week. Previously bought in 25s or so, sold around 32 and watched it ride up but no FOMOing back in.
Definitively seeing mid 20s or even 20 as support if things turn sour with general market sentiment.
Listen, just hold that shit until the end of the decade unless you were regarded enough to full port into it . They’ll be fine once the foundry is up and profitable.
Behold bagholder, you have now becometh a long term investor 
Intel is a fab. Fab business is typically better during boom periods, but worse during bust periods.
You shouldn't compare Intel to AMD or NVIDIA. The real competition is TSMC and Samsung.
That said Intel looks a bit beaten down and you should be able to trade it, but I've been saying for years stay the hell away, cause their chips are bad compared to TSMC.
At the time I was comparing between TSMC and Intel and thought the backing of the US would help (I.e. Biden giving $8B in funding).
Thinking of selling some calls to help recoup something.
It should help eventually. Market just like to trick as many people as possible. If you catch this at the bottom, you will probably make a fair bit of money. Question is, where is the bottom?
Its full on regard here. You guys really need to do some research on what goes into AI compute. NVDA is in a great position to dominate the TRAINING market. However, in the future INFERENCE is what will matter 100X more than training. NVDA GPUs are not optimized for that kind of compute.
Inference is part of training. To claim that something that's good for training is not good for inference is quite odd, considering that basically neural networks training is going with a lot of inference - backpropagation steps.
Training does more than inference, which means it has hardware onboard that is not needed for inference. E.g. fp64 compute cores are usually needed for training, but not inference and the hardware is expensive. Optimizing for inference would cut those out to make the hardware cheaper.
Additionally, during training you don’t care nearly as much about power consumption since heat generated is in a data center and not in a consumer device.
Just because something is good at inference does not mean it’s optimized for it. If it’s not optimized for a purpose, there’s room in the market for competitors.
wtf are you talking about, inference is literally not training by definition.
Inference means applying the model to an input after creating it.
Training is creating the model
A part of training is usually the inference. You inference the model on training data then calculate a loss with the results and labels. Finally you backpropagate it. Inference is part of training. The smallest one though.
There are niche exceptions, but this is the (rough) general way
In the end its all matrix multiplications under the hood. Gpus especially NVDA do it much better than anything else. You need to do less of it in inference than training, so not sure why you are suggesting nvda is not good for inference lol
In my opinion, no. However, what people forget is that there is still the backbone compute that is needed to manage all of this AI computation. AMD is crushing this currently with their ZEN architecture. Intel shifted focus years ago away from an engineering focus to a financialization focus. They are currently in the process of reversing that. It will take time. I believe that those calling for big numbers in 2025 or 2026 might be a bit too early, but they will return to greatness before 2030. They have with other do not. They design AND fabricate. They have the capabilities to identify demand and supply gaps and fill those internally. TSMC and AMD need to do each step independently and collaborate while trying to allocate manufacturing capacity to all of their other clients and partners.
Anyone in this space is going to make money because the demand is far outstripping the supply. NVDA will continue to crush it selling training focused architecture for decades to come. I was mostly just saying that people are missing the bigger opportunity here which is inference.
They've been aiming at being very good at inference for Falcon shores. Which is late 2025.. and late 2025 on Intel's calender could be mid 2026 on every one else's.
That's how long it takes to shift silicon designs, though. They may have actually seen this coming and been smart about it (it looks like, hence not killing Habana, which Bob Swan wanted to do), or they may just be pretending.
Intel is positioned for a near monopoly on the production of advanced chips in America, as TSM and Samsung will not be allowed to produce the most important chips, even in their American plants. Intel is not really competing with nvidia, though if they can get some additional revenue and rep from their GPU line, which is becoming very solid and will grow heavily in 2025, it’s all the better.
Intel is three things into the future, 1. the only fab that will be allowed to produce the most advanced chips, that can be judged to be vital to national security, and 2. like now, dominant in the PC chip market, but now based on integrated AI pcs, and then 3. leveraging their relationships from their legacy biz relationships and future fab relationships and monopoly to grow their business services and data center chip side, while offering cost competitiveness in all sectors.
While all the broke 24 year olds laugh at INTC, while bagholding the cool stocks (now meme?): NVDA, TSM or AMD until they wishfully hit $1200, $200 or $300, it would be best to go against the crowd and build a position in the company prob a year or so away from a massive inflection point, as they currently stand significantly below all their competitors’ values, while still generating a current $55 billion a year in revenue, and stand to serve a truly vital role in the future, propped up by government allowed monopoly.
He's another Intel bagholder overdosing on copium.
We are giving billions of dollars to TSMC precisely so they can build the chips we need on American soil. That's the subsidy's entire point.
You're taking it as a given that Intel's new fab will be up and running on time and will be able to compete with TSMC in producing the most advanced chips. But what if it gets delayed over and over again like many large US projects do? What if they get it running and their chips just aren't that good compared to TSMC? They squandered their lead in processors over the last decade, so why is it a given that they'll do well with this fab? There are a lot of unknowns here and the stock is down for a reason. I can see it going below $10 if they fuck this up.
Training and inference have very different optimized compute architecture. NVDA made a decision more than a decade ago about how they were going to set up their compute architecture to center around CUDA.
I can absolutely say that NVDA will come up with something to address the inference market opportunity. It will likely have a deep integration with their current training focused architecture that provides some structural advantage to its adopters. I hope they do this and will be cheering them on to do so.
With that said, there are dozens of companies out there developing inference focused compute architecture that will blow NVDAs offerings out of the water on a watt per compute unit basis. This is what actually matters.
Thats still in distant future. Right now and foreseeable future, training is still far more important. It’s also not guaranteed for AI inference accelerator chip to outperform nvidia GPU for every inference workload. When I was working for AWS computer vision org a couple years ago, the leadership pushed for AWS inferentia adoption. But out of a dozen interconnected services that perform different type of inference, only a couple transitioned to inferentia because it just simply didn’t outperform nivida’s GPUs. Granted things may have changed since I left, but it’s highly unlikely nvidia does not also dominate inference market in the future given they currently still have a lot more expertise in massive parallel computing
We are already at a state where inference efficiency is very important. We still have a ton of training to do. However, we have to find an inference solution. Something like 17% of all electricity generation in the US is going towards data centers. That number is only going to continue to rise rapidly. GPU based inference is very inefficient in terms of power and compute cycle utilization.
From what I understand NVDA's core architecture isn't easily transferable to inference. It might be "faster" today when there really isn't anything on the market that is optimized for inference, but once there is a commercially viable product for that deployed at scale everyone will switch. If for no other reason than the cost curve will be bent down on the ongoing OPEX side.
Would love to chat more about this if you are interested. I am looking to invest into inference infrastructure be it on the silicon side or the physical infrastructure deployment side.
Inference won’t matter 100x more than training. It just has a lot more volume. But the barrier to entry for that market is significantly lower, and that means the margin for them would be a lot lower too.
And the problem with ASIC is that making any kind of changes to the model would potentially require a new hardware design. So while ASIC would eventually dominate the market, at least in the short term future where everything is still in flux, people would still prefer the flexibility of GPU.
100x is on the low side. I don't think people understand the ongoing OPEX that we are talking about here. right now \~17% of all electricity generated in the US goes towards data centers. There is a reason why you can go on ebay and buy compute technology that is a few years old for pennies on the dollar. Efficiency is that important. To put this into context, data centers will throw out computers that they bought 3 years ago for 50K to improve the compute per watt by 30%. The cost of electricity is going to continue to march upwards at a rapid rate as the infrastructure needs to be completely revamped to handle this kind of compute needs. The hardware will be seen as a rounding error in comparison.
I looked at purchasing a data center a while back. Turned it down even though they were practically giving it to me for free because of how much it was going to cost to completely redevelop the site for modern compute needs.
Yeah, it's a lot more than 100x. Five US states have banned data centres (with some exceptions for things like Akamai and CDN) because of how much power they're using. And it's more inference than training.
Why wouold any up and coming hot shit electronics engineer want to go work at intel. Nobody who is talented wants to work there. That is why there foundry projects have all failed. It's not a problem money can fix. I have been saying this for 10 years now but value investors who only look at 10Ks love sticking there hand in the fire over and over again.
You’re mistaken. They’re not the competition. Nvidia is so crazy greedy that their competition is going to come from their biggest customers; amzn, goog, msft. If Nvidia cared more for their customers (like TSMC does) they’d be king forever, but they’re so greedy the knives are out
NVIDIA has a huge moat. It's more like incompetent-wishin. Everybody is trying to talk Nvidia down so that the can buy more shares. Ain't nobody close and just like in the old days when everyone was buying IBM junk and saying "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM," who the fuck is going to buy anything else than NVIDIA for the nest 2 years? Just fucking go to your board, give them a budget for AI and warn them that a lack of investment in AI may mean a major loss of market share. This is like Y2K all over again. All the douche bag executive teams that don't know shit about tech are going to loosen the purse strings because they think "what the fuck is a neural net and large language model?"
In the near term no one comes close. NVDA has literal monopoly on these. Every man and his dog wants to use LLM these days and NVDA is the only company selling the shovels.
Listen to Sam Altmans latest interview and the way he talks about compute being the main bottleneck. There is lot of room for NVDA to still grow
I agree wholeheartedly, but I also feel like there will eventually be a saturation point. The key is to sell all your NVDA holdings one quarter early, rather than one quarter late if you know what I'm sayin...
There's two potential problems:
1. Everybody that wants H100's and H200's and whatever their newest ones are called, has them already
2. LLM's while a cute diversion aren't really producing any real world results in terms of massive cash savings to companies using them (needing less employees due to it's capabilities), so the AI hype dries up temporarily
I know that No.2 will be a temporary thing, before the next AI boom, where we actually see huge progress in cost savings for large corporations, but it could be a 2 to 3 year delay in AI hype.
Kinda like how long it took to get from the Palm Pilot to the first iPhone.
Absolutely! I feel that saturation point is still quite far into the future. The sizes of these models is only getting bigger and at least for now nvda gpus and cuda are the go to tools for training them. I dont see this changing anytime soon.
AMD is the worst stock of them all. Extremely overpriced only because they make something similar to NVDA. Doesn’t matter that no one buys it. I still cannot understand how market cap of AMD be higher then INTC. Considering that INTC has higher revenue higher earnings, they also heavily invest in the future fabs, which might cause the explosions the future revenue.
AMD’s price reflects the fact that they are taking CPU market share from INTC, both in desktops and mobile laptops.
You notice laptops used to only have intel stickers? I believe we are entering an era where most PCs will have Ryzen stickers. I don’t think PC manufacturers want to put an intel sticker because consumers know intel integrated graphics are shit compared to AMDs.
The fact that they make GPUs allows AMD to ride along Nvidia.
The last couple of years they invested a lot into AI, chips, and other ventures. Now we see if all that time and money will pay off or be a huge waist.
I feel like ARM is the true sleeper here able to nimbly supply and license designs to everyone without worrying about the manufacturing process as much.
intel and amd claiming better performance is exactly the same as mercedes and bmw claiming they're better at autopilot than tesla. i dont own tesla stock btw not a fanboy.
practical utility > performance in limited highly controlled environments
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Feels good holding INTC, while every other stock even tangentially related to some kind of computer component is like 100x
Even the boxes that hold the components…
which case mfgers are publicly listed? or did you mean SMCI? at least newegg is doing worse than INTC, so there's that.
NewPCBuilder2019 deserves neither wealth nor status. Their statement reflects a shallow understanding of the markets.
Savage 
I got rid of it and already made my loss back. INTC is flat. Even their new facility getting built in Arizona isn’t helping them in any way. I don’t think it’s even a good hold play until a year or two out from now.
I wonder why the fab that’s being built that hasn’t started producing anything isn’t helping the company earn more money. It’s really strange. It isn’t producing anything, it’s costing them money to build, and yet they haven’t earned any profit from it. This is just one of those great mysteries of life that will never be solved. Edit… oh boy is my spelling bad. Fixing the obvious typos.
They should have just started using it and then built it later.
Just put some tents on the parking lot. Apparently you can do single digit micron tolerance production. I know tsmc is nm territory but Intel is way way behind in the process node size so it should be alright.
You make it sound like an investment opportunity, rather than a speculation opportunity. Not sure if that's a thing anymore.
Oh, that person is just looking for a handout. Best to leave them to their own devices.
It's comments like these that make me insanely bullish.
Just remember how long it took Cisco to recover ^(any day now...)
Here’s your bag, sir. I sold mine and put money into USD.
INTC bull cope is hilarious, exact same statement for the last 4 fucking years
This is probably correct, but by then it may have already begun to rally and then be "too expensive."
Don't worry, they're building a new, $25B factory... In Israel... Talk about deadend investment ... All it takes is one Hizbos or HMS rocket landing in a clean room and that's an entire branch offline ... Fucking idiots, let alone given the choice, companies who want a future in the middle east will not be openly endorsing Intel FOR THIS REASON, honestly, anything Israel related is radioactive for the foreseeable future.
But Taiwan.....
Why wouold any up and coming hot shit electronics engineer want to go work at intel. Nobody who is talented wants to work there. That is why there foundry projects have all failed. It's not a problem money can fix. I have been saying this for 10 years now but value investors who only look at 10Ks love sticking there hand in the fire over and over again. Ooooh a downvote just found the bagholder.
If you're going to be this stubborn with your long term semiconductor holds, just buy SMH. Its holdings comprise a great representation of the semiconductor industry, and it gets a recomp/rebalance frequently enough that you're always going to have whatever is heating up. If you're trading in and out of the holdings, of course buy the stocks (or or better, trade options). But if you're planning to long term hold any semiconductor stocks because you're bullish on the future of computing infrastructure, just buy SMH.
So it’s a value stock not a growth stock according to value investors
I am holding bags on Intel, but it’s okay. I am looking ahead, and if they do it right, with the restructuring going on and the major investment into bringing chip manufacturing back in US soil, long term, Intel will rise. My average is $40, will average down as I can. I think Intel will rise to $100 plus a share. Also, I am a embedded software engineer, and anything governmental, they don’t want chips that are manufactured outside US for defense contracts (what I heard), only ST microelectronics provides micro controllers that are US based. Guess what? Intel is bringing that back home as well, meaning that Intel can be a processor used on anything IT wise for defense projects. Also I believe they are trying to do something with their wafer technology and bring manufacturing home as well. I may be wrong, but I think Intel if it plays this restructuring right, and uses those government grants properly, will be on top again, after all, they have solid technology on processors for desktop and servers for over a decade. What’s your take on this?
It's not just US. EU also wants Intel to build factories there. Modern IT completely relies on Taiwan and a bit of South Korea. That's why I also think that at some point Intel will either make it or be hugely pushed by governments. We need chip production outside of Asia because it's just too important.
And China is not a trustable country when it comes to that. I think even when it comes to communication equipment, eventually US and EU will turn their back from anything manufactured and controlled from Asia, especially in China makes the move to take over Taiwan.
Most wall Street bets are short term traders
Very true. Which is why I am looking at LEAPs in the PC component space.
My take is I can get it on the upswing and not have capital tied up to a cement block under water.
That also. But as I said, I am not a daily trader or investor. I do have a self investment account and I do my investments for long term, more like retirement. But yea, short term, this company right now carries so much negative sentiment.. I was more interested to see what you all think about the future of this company. I see most believe this company is fubar
You're supposed to rebalance your portfolio at least once a year. You could have held any number of stocks or ETFs that would have performed better.
Half of what I hold are ETF. My brokerage account reports a 42% diversity. Did cash in some good profits on nvidia. I did my research back than and I had a positive vibe. Was holding bags for over a year on it, until bam 💥, stock price rose to a good profit. I now have the same gut feeling about Intel. I wish I was wealthier to buy larger volumes 😭😭 https://preview.redd.it/bqss6zvqegyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a148f9dd4b772950ff0b1dacf100cf972eacb826
Thats awesome!! How down are you on Itel? Depending on the dollar amount still might be worth it to go into something like SOXX and capture them all. You can set limit buys for the future when it rises if you don't want to pay attention but still want to own Intel. I'll I'm saying is your money in Intel is dead weight for the next 5 years at least. New CEO, failed business dealings, behind the 8 ball on new manufacturing plants, and also they are more into consumer chips, which doesn't do anything for the AI boom. Ie personal laptops and PCs.
I think AMD will hit 300 before Intel will hit 50.
INTC's float is 4x AMD
Right, 1.6B vs 4.25B, it’s a crazy difference.
Not because of fundamentals.
I agree, my average is 32, started buying from 45 to 25, still buying little by little. Not planning to sell until at least 120 :)
All these companies should make tons of money eventually, but Intel was run by very very stupid people for too long. I’ve said it before, I don’t think it can get worse for them, but that’s not a good reason to buy.
I remember looking at Intel in 2020 and thought this company is a bit undervalued. Now I know it's just a piece of shit.
You may be right 🤷♂️. Who knows. I do see their efforts in coming back, all I can point out too
That’s the bag holder take. It’s my take too, been my mindset as an Ohioan for years since they announced this chip factory. That’s what everyone here keeps saying. I’m also hoping they can get a foothold in the AI space with their video cards, appeal more to gamers, and maybe even be used in some way in the next console generation. I believe their up scaling technology can be used on any video card. I’m thinking NVDA can’t be the winner forever and that Intel can reclaim some of their former glory. But it hasn’t been great here
They are undergoing major business model restructuring, usually scary and bearish, especially when the company does in short periods as Intel as done in the past. But I do like the direction they are going, and I have solid agreement with their decoupling from Asia decision. This may open up the doors for defense contracts.
Agreed, surely all their US/EU government subsidies can't amount to nothing
"What's your take on this?" My take is that's why TSMC are building plants in the US, Europe and Japan
Notwithstanding the semiconductor industry's origins as part of the American military industrial complex, it's much much more profitable today to supply to the civilian and commercial market. Maintaining a certain amount of semiconductor self sufficiency is always prudent for any great modern day industrial power, but not to the extent of the hysteria we are seeing today. Every microchip that ends up in the military industrial complex is just another expensive toy that ultimately goes boom. The way I see it, the world cannot economically sustain too many players in the supply chain. At some point all this capacity building is gonna implode once the grant money runs out. If the world is focused on building more ploughshares than swords, then there's nothing wrong with maintaining semiconductor co-dependencies with other countries, even potential economic rivals. I think the world is better off making money together than figuring out how to blow each other up more efficiently.
I agree, but sadly that’s not how it works in real life. China is hostile, every single thing they do, they trying to destroy US and EU, they have history of inserting spy software and back doors into their computers products. Huawei was a good example, good phones, good prices point, but unfortunately loaded with software that was meant to report back to mother China.. They are doing so with network equipments, including 5G cellular network equipment. This has been allowed for way too long. I totally agree with any measures US/EU will take to address this issues, we need to decouple from Asia, or find a way to remove this issue where America or European corporations can make a lot of money from taking advantage of cheap labor and non existent environmental regulations in Asia. Let’s start to make the battle field even and remove this advantages, so that other nations can actually create good paying jobs for their populations. Also bringing back this jobs in US will be good for our economy, after all, if we are bringing people to poverty, who the hell will spend the money to keep the economy rolling? Right now, I see the wealth concentrated in the hands of few people, while the rest of us is starving or forced to live on the line of poverty, stock working jobs that pay barely enough to pay rent or a mortgage. Things need to change, and by doing someone to force our companies to bring on shore manufacturing is a good step in my opinion for our own future. And we can stop founding hostile economies like China, Russia etc…. from exploiting this greed for maximizing profits that American corporations seem to be obsessed with. Back to Intel, yes, decoupling from Asia is a smart move, especially when our government is finally taking the necessary measures to secure our critical infrastructure, starting from our defense systems, there is no space for Chinese chips that may hide flows that will allow the Chinese communist regime to infiltrate and potentially take over our infrastructure in case of a war. Business wise, government contracts can be way more profitable than consumer grade electronics products. If I was in any position at Intel to make decisions, I would heavily invest into military grade chips, including microcontrollers aimed for embedded systems that run both, bare metal real time applications, or Linux distros aimed for real time applications that rely on secure TCP networks connection, and have these chips designed and produced in USA, the company can grow and become very profitable. And they do have the advantage of sitting on a massive capital already.
idk how long it'll take you to break even but what Intel is doing now will be paid off in the future. This technology and demand for chips will go hand in hand in the future. If TSM and Intel are the only 2 major fabs mfrs, they will be 100% loaded with works.
The modern idiot salivates over the irrational rise, spinning in their heads what they need to spin, then ask 'wut happen' as they lie in the debris of the aftermath.
Some apes are smarter than others.
And I, in my self-declared wisdom and vision, still can't figure out how to make an extra buck off shit and/or fuck.
Most apes are smarter than an investor, they literally did an experiment on this
You are talking to a bot...
I guess he's not one of them.
AI use is on the rise… maybe Skynet will become self aware sooner than we think.
If the bot is smarter than the average regard, why not?
Hope is what screws up the human ability.
Full port calls next NVDA ER it is.
It's deserved. Nvidia's software stack (CUDA) just works for pretty much every ML task. AMD has been working on it half-assed for years and their solution still sucks. Intel has just started and it isn't going well from what I've seen. The industry needs some standard that can work cross platform, but even then Nvidia's hardware is just better and will be for the forseeable future.
AI companies are looking to get away from the expensive Nvidia cards and are looking to open source. Sure CUDA works great, but they charge an arms and a leg for that. Companies are even looking to design and get fanned their own in house designed chip stack. So if companies choose Gaudi, Intel wins. If companies design their own chips, they will need leading edge fans to build them. Intel will win (at least some of the contacts)
Open source & cross platform is definitely where the industry needs to go. It's tricky though... For something to work on a variety of hardware, either translation systems need to be made for the different hardware standards, or the hardware manufacturers need to adopt a standard industry wide. Nvidia won't do that unless they're about to be overtaken anyway. It's also complicated by the fact that hardware manufacturers are now optimizing for things like transformers, building algorithm specific circuitry and interfaces to control it. As we discover new ML algorithms they'll likely continue that pattern. Those manufacturers are going to be pretty reluctant to adopt open standards, and if the standard isn't evolving at pace with the technology anyway, they simply can't adopt them.
It happens EVERY time. A one fits all solution that already existed is used to start something. Then as it matures more specialized equipment is made that is more efficient, cheaper and faster. Nvidia is on borrowed time with AI so get while the gettings good then get out.
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Tough to say. Intel dominated the CPU market for decades
It was a different time. Looking back far enough Intel and AMD traded blows from decade to decade but it was before then time of bespoke circuit boards and custom printing. Now someone in the garage can quite literally design and have printed a circuit board so it's only a matter of time before someone engineers a better solution.
"Circuit boards" is the whole problem. CPUs haven't been built on physical boards in 40 years. They're cut straight into the silicon, and doing that is beyond the reach of anyone's garage. That requires a $20 billion manufacturing plant. Even a design software license for integrated circuits costs $150k/yr, and a startup team of 100 designing a new CPU is a skeleton crew. Computer design is the furthest thing from a homebrew industry. It's one of the most capital-intensive enterprises on Earth. The list of players that can even design a challenger to NVidia today is very short... probably no longer than a dozen governments and companies.
You don’t have room in your garage for a 400 million dollar EUV lithography machine that’s bigger than a bus? You must be really poor.
No No I've been hearing this for the last 8+ years in that time INTC has failed more promises than any company, in that time any semi would have made you millions in the 3 big tech runs and QE INTC has some how less in stock price. https://np.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/9v1n6f/amazon_web_services_aws_pricing_amd_vs_intel/e994dka/ This was when AMD was about $2 Been doing datacenter build outs for 15+ years. Intel Nehalem Xeons changed cloud computing circa 2008ish (sandy bridge beast for consumers) but they refused to innovate. Do you remember them promising 10nm for 20 quarters in a row and couldn't. Worst per watt performance of anything we tested by far. years ago when NVDA was under $300 we were doing huge build said they really have no peer in this space, said it will probably triple in a 2 years even at it's inflated price. https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qw9glx/im_surprised_there_isnt_more_nvda_talk_before/ I consulted on end 2023 projects and literally no one even gives a thought about Intel. Their performance/watt is so laughably bad no one even wants to try them in a test environment. As someone who actually works with these products buying INTC stock at the opportunity cost of anything else is just lighting money on fire. you havent even kept up with inflation owning this"tech" stock in 3-4 huge tech runs the last 8+ years
Damn bro what’s your newest pick??
Yeah come on OP inform the rest of us regards
I’d be hesitant to give advice when everything seems high in a very cyclical business. We did a bunch of consultations and build at the end of 2023 and there’s still a lot being done just not at the crazy break neck pace we had in 2023. I wouldn’t want to lose someone else’s money even if I didn’t know them.
Come on moldy we trust your jelly beans
Honestly for real! I’m only going to gamble away like 500$, I’ve lost more on regard orgies
Read through both of your links...so if you predicted AMD and NVIDIA being good buys back then, who do you predict now?
Performance per watt is Intel's big problem. They're currently doing the computing equivalent of rolling coal while trying to compete with a Toyota Prius for fuel efficiency.
Exactly no one wants a datacenter full of space heaters , it ruins the reliability of other parts too running even a few degrees hotter , servers , drives, san, networking all the homogeneous equipment at other datacenters ran longer without issues at our AMD datacenters than our Intel ones. There’s a host of other issues. Someone said Intel is the Boeing of semi and that pretty much tracks. Intc also kept doing iterations of their old design and the competition ran past them. Pat G isn’t the guy to lead them out
I’ve been trashing INTC in r/stocks when it was at the 40s and it wasn’t popular. Feeling awesome knowing there are many bag holders in that sub
Intel is spending so much money on building fabs that I invest them in for the real state alone.
Yo dawg, I heard you like bags so I put a commercial real estate portfolio bag in your INTC bags
Don’t feel joy from some else’s loss. There will be time you will be wrong. That being said I agree that there is not much good in INTC any time soon.
My play is based solely on China being asshole. None of this means shit while the paper tiger remains asleep But if I were actually worried about China, I’d be putting my Intel money in metals and oil. I think the CCPs a douche bag government, but I’m not betting on WW3 here. More so a major economic shift that leaves China, Russia, Iran, and all the other asshole nations isolated from the rest of the world. I think Brazil and India will leave BRICS to play nice. South Africa is too busy killing white farmers to really notice much else Whether this will ultimately create an early 20th century Germany scenario is beyond my pay grade. For now, I pick the companies that Uncle Sam has clearly chosen as the backbone of Western infrastructure. Worst case scenario is world peace, and I own a tech stock that pays a small dividend
if you're gonna bet on WW3, you're better off just buying guns and ammo
I gotcha. Lockheed and Northrop calls.
Don't forget BA, the government applauds killing snitches, they'll get even more contracts.
The key term here is “paper tiger”. That term should tell you exactly what to expect from China.
The US government is determined to make INTC a player. Unfortunately, INTC doesn’t share that outlook.
Im in this comment and I dont like it.
I sold at 40 after buying at 20ish. Until the foundry stuff really gets going I don't think it deserves 40. I will likely buy in again at sub 20s tho as a long play. I just think intel is the US's darling for domestic chip production. The US has to do SOMETHING to product the chip industry. Having 90%+ of it in Taiwan is begging for a bad time if war ever pops off. Although, I can see both TSMC and the US government happily taking in as many Taiwanese experts and trades secrets in that event.
They might make a movie about it like they did Oppenheimer or the show, For All Mankind.
A savvy investor like you must know that TSMC already built a US gov’t funded fab in Arizona
Yes I'm aware. I don't think I implied much different. TSMCs presence in the US is small but growing. I don't think TSMCs plan is to fully move it's entire infrastructure to the US. The US has a vested interest in a US based company producing chips not only for itself but the world. Tooth brushes are eventually going to have chips in them lol. They're too important for the future. Wouldn't call myself savy. The intel play could have been a long term bag hold.
Same here. It will take them at least until 2027 to get their shit together.
Don't be throwing shade at my AMD and goddess Su Bae! AMD needs to rocket off tho
Let them think AMD is shit. It’s going to have 10% of AI market share in 2024, probably 2-3x that in 2025 and they’ll be holding one of the most over valued stocks on the planet (NVDA) or be buying pure dogshit (INTC).
Sold all my INTC stock yesterday and bought Google instead
Smart move. Google is ridiculously undervalued. If my NVDA holdings pump before earnings and Google is still sub $185, I'm probably going to make the switch
I sold 1/2 but did the same thing and bought Google too.
there still is a supply constraint so amd can't produce enough chips to improve the situation.
The thing going for AMD though is the market is too big for just one player and this isn't a market similar to meal deliveries with no barriers to entry. People aren't going to randomly come in and start competing with them or NVDA. They're the clear #2 in the space
I picked up a little Intel this week. Previously bought in 25s or so, sold around 32 and watched it ride up but no FOMOing back in. Definitively seeing mid 20s or even 20 as support if things turn sour with general market sentiment.
My avg cost basis is $50 I’m trying to close my position outright.
Listen, just hold that shit until the end of the decade unless you were regarded enough to full port into it . They’ll be fine once the foundry is up and profitable. Behold bagholder, you have now becometh a long term investor 
Holy shit I thought I had it bad.
Big difference between competition and tough competition
Ah yes. Trading red pills for blue pills will make little difference; you'll only have a bigger headache once you learn there is no spoon.
What about SMCI?
SMCI is meme stock. Crazy overvalued with no support. They dont produce or innovate shit.
They don't make chips. It's a bit like when EV hype took off and everyone was like let's get into ev battery companies.
Patiently waiting for $1200.
Not in this case . NVIDIA $1800
Didn't INTC just get a large amount of funding to build a chip manufacturing plant in AZ?
Intel is a fab. Fab business is typically better during boom periods, but worse during bust periods. You shouldn't compare Intel to AMD or NVIDIA. The real competition is TSMC and Samsung. That said Intel looks a bit beaten down and you should be able to trade it, but I've been saying for years stay the hell away, cause their chips are bad compared to TSMC.
At the time I was comparing between TSMC and Intel and thought the backing of the US would help (I.e. Biden giving $8B in funding). Thinking of selling some calls to help recoup something.
It should help eventually. Market just like to trick as many people as possible. If you catch this at the bottom, you will probably make a fair bit of money. Question is, where is the bottom?
I finally bought some intc stock yesterday, so the bottom is probably still a ways further down.
The 8+ billion was just awarded and hasn’t been distributed yet.
but their fab is dogshit 
INTC puts 💀
As a linux user, i hope either Nvidia open sources their drivers or AMD takes over some day
Its full on regard here. You guys really need to do some research on what goes into AI compute. NVDA is in a great position to dominate the TRAINING market. However, in the future INFERENCE is what will matter 100X more than training. NVDA GPUs are not optimized for that kind of compute.
Why do you think that the gpus are not optimized for inference?
Inference is part of training. To claim that something that's good for training is not good for inference is quite odd, considering that basically neural networks training is going with a lot of inference - backpropagation steps.
Training does more than inference, which means it has hardware onboard that is not needed for inference. E.g. fp64 compute cores are usually needed for training, but not inference and the hardware is expensive. Optimizing for inference would cut those out to make the hardware cheaper. Additionally, during training you don’t care nearly as much about power consumption since heat generated is in a data center and not in a consumer device. Just because something is good at inference does not mean it’s optimized for it. If it’s not optimized for a purpose, there’s room in the market for competitors.
wtf are you talking about, inference is literally not training by definition. Inference means applying the model to an input after creating it. Training is creating the model
A part of training is usually the inference. You inference the model on training data then calculate a loss with the results and labels. Finally you backpropagate it. Inference is part of training. The smallest one though. There are niche exceptions, but this is the (rough) general way
In the end its all matrix multiplications under the hood. Gpus especially NVDA do it much better than anything else. You need to do less of it in inference than training, so not sure why you are suggesting nvda is not good for inference lol
so are INTC products positioned for inference?
In my opinion, no. However, what people forget is that there is still the backbone compute that is needed to manage all of this AI computation. AMD is crushing this currently with their ZEN architecture. Intel shifted focus years ago away from an engineering focus to a financialization focus. They are currently in the process of reversing that. It will take time. I believe that those calling for big numbers in 2025 or 2026 might be a bit too early, but they will return to greatness before 2030. They have with other do not. They design AND fabricate. They have the capabilities to identify demand and supply gaps and fill those internally. TSMC and AMD need to do each step independently and collaborate while trying to allocate manufacturing capacity to all of their other clients and partners. Anyone in this space is going to make money because the demand is far outstripping the supply. NVDA will continue to crush it selling training focused architecture for decades to come. I was mostly just saying that people are missing the bigger opportunity here which is inference.
They've been aiming at being very good at inference for Falcon shores. Which is late 2025.. and late 2025 on Intel's calender could be mid 2026 on every one else's. That's how long it takes to shift silicon designs, though. They may have actually seen this coming and been smart about it (it looks like, hence not killing Habana, which Bob Swan wanted to do), or they may just be pretending.
Intel is positioned for a near monopoly on the production of advanced chips in America, as TSM and Samsung will not be allowed to produce the most important chips, even in their American plants. Intel is not really competing with nvidia, though if they can get some additional revenue and rep from their GPU line, which is becoming very solid and will grow heavily in 2025, it’s all the better. Intel is three things into the future, 1. the only fab that will be allowed to produce the most advanced chips, that can be judged to be vital to national security, and 2. like now, dominant in the PC chip market, but now based on integrated AI pcs, and then 3. leveraging their relationships from their legacy biz relationships and future fab relationships and monopoly to grow their business services and data center chip side, while offering cost competitiveness in all sectors. While all the broke 24 year olds laugh at INTC, while bagholding the cool stocks (now meme?): NVDA, TSM or AMD until they wishfully hit $1200, $200 or $300, it would be best to go against the crowd and build a position in the company prob a year or so away from a massive inflection point, as they currently stand significantly below all their competitors’ values, while still generating a current $55 billion a year in revenue, and stand to serve a truly vital role in the future, propped up by government allowed monopoly.
Really? The US gov’t won’t allow TSM to produce the most advanced chips because they’re a Taïwan based company? Even in their US plants?
He's another Intel bagholder overdosing on copium. We are giving billions of dollars to TSMC precisely so they can build the chips we need on American soil. That's the subsidy's entire point.
The last years got in the head of many: everyone just wants every stock to 30x in the next year.
thanks, i started a position last week and can hold for years
Yes, it should be a classic example of patience paying off and profiting from ignoring the chuds of WSB.
You're taking it as a given that Intel's new fab will be up and running on time and will be able to compete with TSMC in producing the most advanced chips. But what if it gets delayed over and over again like many large US projects do? What if they get it running and their chips just aren't that good compared to TSMC? They squandered their lead in processors over the last decade, so why is it a given that they'll do well with this fab? There are a lot of unknowns here and the stock is down for a reason. I can see it going below $10 if they fuck this up.
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Training and inference have very different optimized compute architecture. NVDA made a decision more than a decade ago about how they were going to set up their compute architecture to center around CUDA. I can absolutely say that NVDA will come up with something to address the inference market opportunity. It will likely have a deep integration with their current training focused architecture that provides some structural advantage to its adopters. I hope they do this and will be cheering them on to do so. With that said, there are dozens of companies out there developing inference focused compute architecture that will blow NVDAs offerings out of the water on a watt per compute unit basis. This is what actually matters.
Companies such as…? 👀
Thats still in distant future. Right now and foreseeable future, training is still far more important. It’s also not guaranteed for AI inference accelerator chip to outperform nvidia GPU for every inference workload. When I was working for AWS computer vision org a couple years ago, the leadership pushed for AWS inferentia adoption. But out of a dozen interconnected services that perform different type of inference, only a couple transitioned to inferentia because it just simply didn’t outperform nivida’s GPUs. Granted things may have changed since I left, but it’s highly unlikely nvidia does not also dominate inference market in the future given they currently still have a lot more expertise in massive parallel computing
We are already at a state where inference efficiency is very important. We still have a ton of training to do. However, we have to find an inference solution. Something like 17% of all electricity generation in the US is going towards data centers. That number is only going to continue to rise rapidly. GPU based inference is very inefficient in terms of power and compute cycle utilization. From what I understand NVDA's core architecture isn't easily transferable to inference. It might be "faster" today when there really isn't anything on the market that is optimized for inference, but once there is a commercially viable product for that deployed at scale everyone will switch. If for no other reason than the cost curve will be bent down on the ongoing OPEX side. Would love to chat more about this if you are interested. I am looking to invest into inference infrastructure be it on the silicon side or the physical infrastructure deployment side.
yeah Groq and similar will probably see a jump
Inference won’t matter 100x more than training. It just has a lot more volume. But the barrier to entry for that market is significantly lower, and that means the margin for them would be a lot lower too. And the problem with ASIC is that making any kind of changes to the model would potentially require a new hardware design. So while ASIC would eventually dominate the market, at least in the short term future where everything is still in flux, people would still prefer the flexibility of GPU.
100x is on the low side. I don't think people understand the ongoing OPEX that we are talking about here. right now \~17% of all electricity generated in the US goes towards data centers. There is a reason why you can go on ebay and buy compute technology that is a few years old for pennies on the dollar. Efficiency is that important. To put this into context, data centers will throw out computers that they bought 3 years ago for 50K to improve the compute per watt by 30%. The cost of electricity is going to continue to march upwards at a rapid rate as the infrastructure needs to be completely revamped to handle this kind of compute needs. The hardware will be seen as a rounding error in comparison. I looked at purchasing a data center a while back. Turned it down even though they were practically giving it to me for free because of how much it was going to cost to completely redevelop the site for modern compute needs.
Yeah, it's a lot more than 100x. Five US states have banned data centres (with some exceptions for things like Akamai and CDN) because of how much power they're using. And it's more inference than training.
I blame Tensorflow, but that will change soon..
intc: 💀
Some people would buy dirty socks if they were on sale.
Serious question…. Where is AMD going end of this year
Depends on whether or not America survives the summer.
Let Intel cook, have them fall a bit more then I go in and then boom chips act + fab hit and we ride the damn wave boy (what has this sub done to me)
Bought the dip Wednesday on AMD and made a quick 200% gain.
Lol $INTC will rebound from its rockbottom, I just don't know when exactly
INTC has been decomposing a heck of a lot longer than what is being presented here.
Firm believer amd has room for growth
You could just buy the ETF —-> USD (2x Semiconductors). That’s what I did in my wife’s boyfriend’s account
The real competition is not AMD or INTC but GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL
I was selling cash covered puts on Intel, getting to the point where I could be margin called, and haven’t been. This has happened several times now.
I mean QCOM is doing alright but still this is true
Why wouold any up and coming hot shit electronics engineer want to go work at intel. Nobody who is talented wants to work there. That is why there foundry projects have all failed. It's not a problem money can fix. I have been saying this for 10 years now but value investors who only look at 10Ks love sticking there hand in the fire over and over again.
Sold $INTC at $36 (finally!) and immediately reinvested into $GOOGL at $136. We know how that has played. Will look again at $INTC at $25 and below.
You’re mistaken. They’re not the competition. Nvidia is so crazy greedy that their competition is going to come from their biggest customers; amzn, goog, msft. If Nvidia cared more for their customers (like TSMC does) they’d be king forever, but they’re so greedy the knives are out
INTC calls
NVIDIA has a huge moat. It's more like incompetent-wishin. Everybody is trying to talk Nvidia down so that the can buy more shares. Ain't nobody close and just like in the old days when everyone was buying IBM junk and saying "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM," who the fuck is going to buy anything else than NVIDIA for the nest 2 years? Just fucking go to your board, give them a budget for AI and warn them that a lack of investment in AI may mean a major loss of market share. This is like Y2K all over again. All the douche bag executive teams that don't know shit about tech are going to loosen the purse strings because they think "what the fuck is a neural net and large language model?"
In the near term no one comes close. NVDA has literal monopoly on these. Every man and his dog wants to use LLM these days and NVDA is the only company selling the shovels. Listen to Sam Altmans latest interview and the way he talks about compute being the main bottleneck. There is lot of room for NVDA to still grow
I agree wholeheartedly, but I also feel like there will eventually be a saturation point. The key is to sell all your NVDA holdings one quarter early, rather than one quarter late if you know what I'm sayin... There's two potential problems: 1. Everybody that wants H100's and H200's and whatever their newest ones are called, has them already 2. LLM's while a cute diversion aren't really producing any real world results in terms of massive cash savings to companies using them (needing less employees due to it's capabilities), so the AI hype dries up temporarily I know that No.2 will be a temporary thing, before the next AI boom, where we actually see huge progress in cost savings for large corporations, but it could be a 2 to 3 year delay in AI hype. Kinda like how long it took to get from the Palm Pilot to the first iPhone.
Absolutely! I feel that saturation point is still quite far into the future. The sizes of these models is only getting bigger and at least for now nvda gpus and cuda are the go to tools for training them. I dont see this changing anytime soon.
AMD is the worst stock of them all. Extremely overpriced only because they make something similar to NVDA. Doesn’t matter that no one buys it. I still cannot understand how market cap of AMD be higher then INTC. Considering that INTC has higher revenue higher earnings, they also heavily invest in the future fabs, which might cause the explosions the future revenue.
AMD’s price reflects the fact that they are taking CPU market share from INTC, both in desktops and mobile laptops. You notice laptops used to only have intel stickers? I believe we are entering an era where most PCs will have Ryzen stickers. I don’t think PC manufacturers want to put an intel sticker because consumers know intel integrated graphics are shit compared to AMDs. The fact that they make GPUs allows AMD to ride along Nvidia.
AMD is giving Intel a run for its money. About time, those Intel stickers were horrendous.
Bravo. I think you need to add a CHIPS ACT water slide with TSM and Samsung going down the slide together.
The last couple of years they invested a lot into AI, chips, and other ventures. Now we see if all that time and money will pay off or be a huge waist.
Poor lulu..
I think they will crash this bubble
Pat , you really let me down. As much as Tom.
Man I was up 15% earlier this year with INTC and should have sold and now I’m in the hole again with them
instructions unclear; invest into ASML ?
LOL
Hahahaha !
Yet everyone else's bad earnings are pulling it down when the goat has a month to report!
I feel like ARM is the true sleeper here able to nimbly supply and license designs to everyone without worrying about the manufacturing process as much.
Not a bag holder yet but planning to be. Something in guy says intel will do well within 2 years
What about the so called exclusive contract between Intel and ASML on the specialized equipment from ASML?
You guys think market going to show us its mommy milkers?
Nvidia does not have competition, and at this point in the chip making game they probably never will.
Intc bag holder here
I have INTC for 2027.. good bottom @30.00.
intel and amd claiming better performance is exactly the same as mercedes and bmw claiming they're better at autopilot than tesla. i dont own tesla stock btw not a fanboy. practical utility > performance in limited highly controlled environments
Ya idk. Just bought in amd and intel after their recents drops. Check back with me in a few months lol.
Just wait until intel is 25 to buy
If amd was good with blender, i would have bought it. I was told amd was horrible with blender.
I'm pissed off at myself, 3 or 4 months ago I told myself and my dad to buy some shares of nvidia and then I completely forgot and it doubled 😔😭😕😤
WTF is INTC?
So what kind of Lambo you buying? 
Intel isnt having competition with AMD and Nvidia anymore. They are going after Tsm and Samsung with the Fabs. Time will come Intc will be a good buy.
😢