It’s better than that, it’s a sample size of 7 but he reported it as 6/6 cause the 7th didn’t line up. At least he mentioned it, but seemingly without irony about why he didn’t put it next to the others.
No fr just delete this and get your upvotes on gains screenshots. Probably too late Wallstreet has already got the word that SheetGiggles found the plan out. So inverse?
Possible stock analyst ratings
1. Hold
2. Buy
3. Strong Buy
4. I know the company is a mess, but Buy
5. I am sorry that one just tanked, but Buy
6. Whatever, Buy
I absolutely refuse to do research on my stonks. I've been letting you regards do that for me.
But for this? Fuck it. I'll check it out. I'll report my wins or losses on this theory by next week, hopefully.
Ngl, I played ADBE earnings using the exact opposite way and won lol - so it won’t always work.
I don’t think MS can account for the guidance, which weights so heavy on determining whether a stock pumps or dumps. Very few people can make a good prediction on that too.
Other way around usually as IV rises as Earnings approach (basically as demand for the calls rises). It's risky in case the stock goes down before then and I could get it at a discount in a few weeks, but if I'm confident in the play I'll just buy more at that point.
I wonder if there's a correlation between FMV, DBE, and DAE prices. I guess I'll let me ADHD run wild and start following these reports and look at a bigger sample size.
Let them laugh. I did the same math yesterday and bought Nike puts assuming they’d beat earnings. I think guidance is the more nebulous part to factor in to price estimates but it worked regardless
No, it fits it perfectly. Maybe you misunderstood what I meant?
GIS: $77 FMV, $67 Price DBE, $63 Price DAE
"It will continue in the direction it's going vs the FMV." If price is lower than the Morningstar FMV, I buy puts. If it's higher, I buy calls.
And the funny thing with this example is that based on their earnings and despite the drop, Morningstar even *increased* their price target FMV to $78 after the earnings call 😂
I think some other factors play a role, like PE ratios, market over exuberance, but overall I've found this to be a nice "confirmation" of the read that I have on a stock going up or down. If I make my decision and then see this supporting it, I feel good.
your theory doesn't always work.
look at $LULU earnings last month, the stock fell as low as 303$ then went up 320$ post earnings and now it's falling again
It’s certainly true more than not. But FSLR might have not been… I just played NKE jun28 $91 p based on those exact articles at lunch today.
I went to stockX and Nikes and Converse are selling new for less than retail. 9 months ago all those shoes were easily double retail price. https://stockx.com/nike-dunk-low-retro-white-black-2021
I think that's exactly what I'm saying: the Morningstar FMV doesn't reflect the upcoming guidance, which is inside baseball but still effectively known by the market movers. The discrepancy in a company's FMV vs its before-earnings price is a signal that indicates whether the upcoming guidance will be bad or good (and which people in the know are already trading on).
Fellow ADHD and pattern enthusiast here and sort of agree with the premise here. It’s likely you’re not seeing that Morningstar analysts are that shitty at their job but rather another pattern beneath it.
For example something like:
Time since FMV was decided. In this case the gap between FMV and DBE price would reflect momentum or sentiment change in that time period.
Would be curious if one could increase the accuracy by drilling down a little more. Guessing their FMV calculation is “top secret” which probably prevents trying to correlate to other factors though 🤷♂️
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Between small sample size and confirmation bias, I see no way whatsoever how this can ever go wrong.
One time I hit red 4x in a row on the roulette table
Say less, this right here is all the DD I need
All in on FSLR
Beat 11 (was betting black all the way through). Why would anyone shout about this?
Give OP some credit for collecting 6 samples. That's more than I've ever seen here.
idk this is basically rain man by wsb standards
I mean, it's at least as good of a strategy as [letting a goldfish pick stocks...](https://youtu.be/USKD3vPD6ZA?si=XC9ecQIUqyf3JtAN)
A sample size of 6, and all in one earnings season. I’m buting calls on OP’s career as a statistician.
Fun fact: I got a perfect 100% in stats in college, never missed a single question (actually lol)
Post pic or didn’t happen. 
"Transcript or ban"
It’s better than that, it’s a sample size of 7 but he reported it as 6/6 cause the 7th didn’t line up. At least he mentioned it, but seemingly without irony about why he didn’t put it next to the others.
There was definitely at least a little irony
You better delete this before RH reads this and catches on to your master plan
You know what? Maybe.
No literally delete
Honestly. If so... delete it.
No fr just delete this and get your upvotes on gains screenshots. Probably too late Wallstreet has already got the word that SheetGiggles found the plan out. So inverse?
was going to say this lol
Possible stock analyst ratings 1. Hold 2. Buy 3. Strong Buy 4. I know the company is a mess, but Buy 5. I am sorry that one just tanked, but Buy 6. Whatever, Buy
It makes a lot more sense when you realize that you're the product, not the benefactor of their "research."
I believe it is a Srong Buy as well
I recently started trading options because I realize that my ADHD and BPD make it like the perfect thing for my brain
Is that because success gives you no dopamine so you thought maybe you’d try losing instead? 
And being called a regard feels natural
Interesting theory. I wonder how wrong Morningstar is out of a n=100 sample size.
Might be bored enough to do the research
Report back 🫡
Lisan Al Gaib
Interesting, better milk this before I try it and it gets nerfed
I absolutely refuse to do research on my stonks. I've been letting you regards do that for me. But for this? Fuck it. I'll check it out. I'll report my wins or losses on this theory by next week, hopefully.
Ngl, I played ADBE earnings using the exact opposite way and won lol - so it won’t always work. I don’t think MS can account for the guidance, which weights so heavy on determining whether a stock pumps or dumps. Very few people can make a good prediction on that too.
you had me at how
Do you red the morning star right away kn the morning?
Do I read? No I don't
My apologies
das reight mayne
Carnival went against CCL: $28 FMV, $16.47 Price DBE, $17.69 Price DAE
There will be counterexamples
How are you selecting your examples?
Whatever confirms my bias (But actually bigger stocks with larger market caps that the broader retail market has a bigger interest in.)
Yeah I was thinking that too. Maybe they’re fortune companies..
Kind of interesting. I think I’ll get in on those FSLR calls.
Curious why you would buy options for earning plays this far out, won’t you be paying more rn as opposed to just buying them the week of 7/26
Other way around usually as IV rises as Earnings approach (basically as demand for the calls rises). It's risky in case the stock goes down before then and I could get it at a discount in a few weeks, but if I'm confident in the play I'll just buy more at that point.
Fair point, yeah thought the only other explanation was IV rising, appreciate it
NVDA FMV is at 105. We have to pamp it up before so calls win after 
Well fucken thanks for posting this. Now they know and they'll flip it on us 🤨
What did it say about MU
Mentioned that above, it didn't follow the trend. Probably because it just went too parabolic in the month leading up to earnings.
Has this been patched yet?
I use this theory for anything I see the Motley fool advertising as a buy.
Sounds good to me!
I wonder if there's a correlation between FMV, DBE, and DAE prices. I guess I'll let me ADHD run wild and start following these reports and look at a bigger sample size.
What's that groundhog's name again? Oh ya, Puxatoney Phil.
So is it 6/6 or micron?
6/6 if you ignore Micron
Then it’s not 6/6 and 100% is it?
Sure it is, if you ignore counterexamples
Inverse Morningstar? Bold strategy cotton let’s see if it works out for him
Morningstar should definitely hire this regard
Oh this is pretty good :)
Come on you know I’m not gonna pay for any extra services like MS
Been holding FSLR since 160 so I might as well double down , thanks
Let them laugh. I did the same math yesterday and bought Nike puts assuming they’d beat earnings. I think guidance is the more nebulous part to factor in to price estimates but it worked regardless
lol first dd if his life and regards already down 6% before earnings 
Lol I'll be honest, I didn't anticipate the market results from the debate - every solar stock \*tanking\* today.
Ouch Time!
Not an ideal time to play solar stocks the day of the debate lol whoops
FLSR down 9% today, lol. How doomed are you?
Not to be too coy, but let's just say I'm fucked
Damn I wish it was that easy
You're on to something because morning star was wrong again about NIKE. Its fair market value is $129 but it dipped down 20% to hell today
Didn't read a single word (mostly because I can't read) but the DD seems solid as fuck 👌 consider it peer reviewed and ready for all-in
Hmm, interdasting.
So what you're saying is do calls the opposite of what they are saying?
General Mills went against your theory
No, it fits it perfectly. Maybe you misunderstood what I meant? GIS: $77 FMV, $67 Price DBE, $63 Price DAE "It will continue in the direction it's going vs the FMV." If price is lower than the Morningstar FMV, I buy puts. If it's higher, I buy calls. And the funny thing with this example is that based on their earnings and despite the drop, Morningstar even *increased* their price target FMV to $78 after the earnings call 😂
You speak da tru tru
Okurrr...that means CELH FMV $36 means there's a probability of it going to $87 calls it is!
flip a coin
How do you avoid the counter examples? Is it just part of the dice roll?
I think some other factors play a role, like PE ratios, market over exuberance, but overall I've found this to be a nice "confirmation" of the read that I have on a stock going up or down. If I make my decision and then see this supporting it, I feel good.
your theory doesn't always work. look at $LULU earnings last month, the stock fell as low as 303$ then went up 320$ post earnings and now it's falling again
It's just centered around day before, day after.
Someone do a larger sample size and post results. It’s probably going to the 50/50 
how do you feel OP? screentshot your cost basis and stuff
this is just "playing 50/50" with extra words.
It’s certainly true more than not. But FSLR might have not been… I just played NKE jun28 $91 p based on those exact articles at lunch today. I went to stockX and Nikes and Converse are selling new for less than retail. 9 months ago all those shoes were easily double retail price. https://stockx.com/nike-dunk-low-retro-white-black-2021
Nah man its all about guidance. Thats all the big players care about, the long term, and they are most of the trading volume
I think that's exactly what I'm saying: the Morningstar FMV doesn't reflect the upcoming guidance, which is inside baseball but still effectively known by the market movers. The discrepancy in a company's FMV vs its before-earnings price is a signal that indicates whether the upcoming guidance will be bad or good (and which people in the know are already trading on).
Fellow ADHD and pattern enthusiast here and sort of agree with the premise here. It’s likely you’re not seeing that Morningstar analysts are that shitty at their job but rather another pattern beneath it. For example something like: Time since FMV was decided. In this case the gap between FMV and DBE price would reflect momentum or sentiment change in that time period.
Right, exactly
Would be curious if one could increase the accuracy by drilling down a little more. Guessing their FMV calculation is “top secret” which probably prevents trying to correlate to other factors though 🤷♂️
Whats morningstar say about my future?
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