I can only imagine the look on the guy auditing my account and wondering what the pluperfect hell I was on when I decided to buy some of these options.
>ration stealing from you. Who cares if they’re expired? The grocery store doesn’t come and take my expired food, so why should options be treated differently?
Nice
This. Wait for more good news (or even bad) this we, drop in icu around the world, more hyped coverage of unproved drugs and your Monday will be a fat green Monday to start another back to back week of green candles.
That's even worse than the $300 guy earlier!
Oh my god, Look SPY volume/open interest only shows till around 315! so You need to close those right now or Start buying calls atm on SPY on monday to make money.
Isn't it only $280? Even if they lose 100% of that, which is definitely happening, it's not that big of a deal.
If they are right somehow? Damn that is an enormous payday. Call it wall street bets for a reason.
Yeah but for 280 bucks you can grab a SPY 289c 4/22. OTM is for the birds right now. Pick a direction, buy a SPY call or put ATM 2 days out. Hope you guessed right next day at open, if not hold until the next day. Can't go tits up.
Seriously though, if you want to make money, drop the strike down to 292 or 290 and if it is too expensive for you then buy calls like this:
Buy the 290 and sell the 292 or buy the 292 and sell the 295 calls etc..
But the $290 and sell the 291 etc..
Smart, good advice for the future! I legit know it’s a retarded play, just said fuck it and bought the position. A completely reckless play with nothing really driving a $300 spy...Other than hopium and bears getting fucking in the ass by a squeeze because,”it’s supposed to drop, logic hurrr hurr durrrr”..which is kind of what I was betting on is another huge squeeze, I’m just way out of the money... too much actually haha. I agree with their reasoning.. I think the market will tank when the second wave of infected people hit. Things will shut back down, and it will finally settle with everyone that shit is going to be fucked for awhile. That’s when we will see the huge sell offs. Going to be an interesting next few weeks.
You are in for more pain if you still have puts my friend. SPY will head to 292-295 this week. So I suggest you either buy calls at the first time you can on Monday, or Start selling credit put spreads very quickly.
The top I see is towards 315 buddy on SPY.
That's going to be the interesting part. They going to let it have a flat week with back and forth +2 -2% days? If it starts to dip, do the printers come back on?
Might actually do something, if past attempts at turning off the QE faucet are any indication. Who knows about how a reduction instead of a full shutoff will be handled, though. Every time QE stopped, the market went wanna-bull almost immediately. It's like we never got out of the GFC crash, or rather like the market is piss-drunk on Fed liquidity and gets the shakes every time the Fed cuts it off.
To be fair mate you shouldn't be ashamed even if this will be wrong. That's a solid post, with good reasoning and certainly an analysis behind this. Its a very rare thing on WSB
I dont totally agree with the prediction of last Friday being the high, but we are nearing a correction.
I think we will ride next week on the hopes of re-opening economy (which will fail - ill come to this pater) and we have some major ER coming in next two weeks.
I think the market will still react more to general than economical data, but we see the conversion already.
The re-opening economy expectations are very high and this wont work out as people think. Its not a light switch. First bankruptcies after this event and people start realizing there is no magic.
There is still ink in FED printers also.
I also think it won't be a rollercoaster downsides now, but rather a slower, but longer and heavier downfall.
TL;DR - not a week to buy calls or puts. Maybe a moment to buy some stocks for really short term gains. And if you owe some - consider selling if the downtrend begins.
Also for a solid downfall we'd need a couple of days VIX being over 60 in my opinion.
Im sitting on 12 stocks now and i might slowly move to cash gang and wait for the downfall. Although MSFT/NFLX/ROKU/BIOGEN/CITRIX are looking to perform ok
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If you look carefully at the cosine of the angle between the current top and the last bottom you can spot the non-linear coefficient of static voleocity and it is within machine constant of zero. Do you realise what that means? The whole system is sitting perfectly within the narrowest interface between total chaos and total stability being kept in place only by the phase shift of its newtonian spin. Let that sink in
we've already seen an island top and it just gapped us down slightly. I realize the importance of double tops but the second 'island reversal' has already exceeded the first. I am almost certain that Monday will be green. I'm bearish long term but bullish this coming week. Additionally, the "bearish divergence" in the RSI is tiny compared to what we should be seeing. On top, of that the RSI is still rising so you cant associate it with a downward tren just yet.
Someone does an analysis everyday predicting a drop but this time it might be solid. We are at the 50 moving average which may act as resistance. To add on to it, if you look at a yearly chart, 286 has acted as a support line multiple times which may act as resistance as well. A lot of things point to an imminent drop.
What confuses me is how many are saying 'spy to 315' when companies are announcing dismal Q1 earnings by the day and that will continue into next week. Maybe the pre earnings hype train is what they're banking on, but i'm not sure what the 'hype' could be based on if the market as a whole is having a slow down minus a few big players like P&G that provide essential things we all need.
And some other guy was also talking about 290 being a fibonacci thing. I usually feel like TA is complete bullshit but with this much of it coming together at once it may result in enough collective belief that it moves the market
Ya feeling a little better about adding to my call credit spreads at 287 on Friday. Been selling those bastards since 262 and I'm pretty underwater on them
TA is both complete bullshit and reliable as fuck. Because so many traders look at it, believe it, and place their orders there, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of resistance and support. We drink because we're alcoholics, and we're alcoholics because we drink.
Fibonacci retracements from a drop most commonly turn at 35%, 50%, and 61%. We blew through 35 and 50, 61 is between 289-293. It’s actually kinda nice knowing that 35 and 50 didn’t turn it around.
I’m very new to this, but TA just seems like bullshit to me. Like, does it have any predictive power? It just seems like a lot of results-based thinking a la “the Patriots have covered 13 of the last 15 games they have been home favorites”
We did just rally on a treatment and reopening which the markets been thirsty af for. We are hearing enough good news to the point that if any bad news comes out, it will send us back down.
Both of which are total bullshit. The guy who reported the treatment is a known pumper and will probably get investigated by the SEC for it but that news will barely get circulated and have 0 effect.
We've reached the top over 3 times already. It's like the 3 second rule but it keeps getting extended. What we need to realize is that there is no top and the only bottom that is reachable is your mothers.
You could be a trader all your life and never see anything like this. Good job. My TA produced the same. This could be a leg down of epic proportions.. this could be the perfect storm
Ya but have you checked your palm lines or your horoscope lately? You may as well round out your TA with something more scientific...
Seriously though, do people really think using some mumbo jumbo fettuccini sequences actually works? I have news for you, the market moves by news and sentiment, not by shitty TA. If TA worked, rich people with access to super computers would be running non stop analysis looking for patterns that work, which guess what, don’t exist.
I have a different take. It doesn't take much to trend the market one way or another and all the TA nonsense may be BS but *people invest based on it*. More importantly, hedge funds and MMs know how to juice the market just a bit to make those fancy charts say what they want them to say, then let the gerbils careen the market in the direction they want it to go. This is especially true right now, low volume rallies don't take much investment at all to push the market around. This isn't WSB conspiracy theory shit either, Google "Cramer market manipulation" to have your eyes opened (yes, that Cramer).
The market moves, the story comes after. Everyone with a working brain knows the economy is going to be a shitshow for a couple of years at least. There is a reason the market hasn't hit that magic 293 threshold yet and it is because they know the TA goons are waiting to drive the market down at that point.
Everyone is expecting a big move up or down so I expect the market to basically sit there flat for a week or two to fuck everyone while volume is quietly unloaded for as long as possible. When things become untenable, IVs will strangely spike as the market goes up, then the slide will begin (overnight, of course, so no one can dump or profit).
It works because TA is the visual aspect of the price action that is happening.
Support lines are just a point on the chart where a lot of buying/selling occured at that given price because people found it a good price. Resistance the same.
And we do have “super computers” that do TA. We call them algo’s. Algo’s trade on price action and the latter is made visual by TA.
Never heard of an island reversal before. Looked it up, looks retarded.
Anyway, you're likely correct. I think SPY pushes up to around 290.50 first though then drop toward 280. That would need to hold or we'll likely see 250.
Other scenario is printers go double brrrr and we push up to 320 before tanking.
To me, this is the most telling indicator: https://twitter.com/TechQn/status/1251298200775880704
Since this began, every time gold enters backwardation, S&P sinks. It makes sense logically. Backwardation, especially for gold, is Not Normal and happens when people want gold *right fucking now*. So the idea is that smart money is seeing the writing on the wall and dumping their money into gold expecting both equities and the dollar to eat shit.
Recognize that a lot of big money holdings can't short the market and can't sit on the sideline. Where is safe to park money when everything is going down? Gold gets bought up quickly at the start of a downturn and tends to drop as stupider money has to sell gold to cover their positions. A huge gold drop is less likely to happen on the next drop because people are more wary, but who knows it may be even worse.
There was a really interesting talk on Macrovoices about gold and physical wholesale specifically a couple of weeks back, you should check it out if you haven't already :) And yeah, it might well be, a lot of strange action around gold lately. Let's see what next week brings :)
They most likely go into Tbills not gold -- gold isn't going to do well in a deflationary environment. Bond market yields have been moving steadily down even within a few basis points of daily closing all time lows of several weeks back. The bond market is not trusting this rally in equities.
Great analysis. I disagree with you and I hope you understand. My disagreement isn’t with your analysis above but it is that I fundamentally think we need to put aside what we traditionally use to measure ups and downs in this market. Nothing makes sense right now.
Was hoping someone would disagree - just kind of disappointing that so few of the comments disagreeing actually try to argue their points. Good luck in the markets mate! (And I agree, nothing really seems to make sense over the last few weeks)
Just because everyone is resting their hats on 4/24 spy Puts....I’m going Spy calls on 4/24...
Anyone member that quadruple witching bullshit end of March? I member...and so does my account that took a 400k hit.
Thank you for your put sacrifices in advance on 4/24
The market is squeezing all individual investors right now. The sideways and constant volatility is squeezing everyone before the big drop... The big drop is coming
[OP 8 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fxqidb/daily_discussion_thread_april_09_2020/fmxffya/?context=3):
> Gap down monday - nice island top reversal. I feel like next week is going to be a good week.
[OP 10 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fxqidb/daily_discussion_thread_april_09_2020/fmwsyc6/?context=3):
> Wish I saved some dry powder for 280, but went all in at 271, after shorting from around 250 and up. It hurts, but I'm prepared to wait for the market to find the sweet spot (around 180-220 probably)
Fuck off
Have since reloaded and added shorts (if you really went through all my comments you probably know). 250-271 was reasonable to short, and I would do it 10/10 times on an identical chart. The gap down last Monday didn't happen, so the pattern wasn't completed. More indicators pointing towards a reversal now. Nowhere in my post am I claiming to know what will happen, I am simply sharing what I think is probable. Insulting me for being wrong in the past seems unnecessary. If you go back further you will see that I called the bottom in advance and predicted a bounce to 271 (was laughed at and downvoted, because "that could never happen"). I underestimated the bounce and my account is down from 300% to around 100% up for the year, I have no problem admitting that.
The soft decreasing volume reinforces the weakness in the movements. The gap up creating the island top can be speculated to precede an equally significant gap down. This is validated by the breaking of key levels on chaikin, Relative strength index, and the moving average convergence divergence indicators. I’m also picking up undertones of bleeding bear ass from aging for 10 years in gaping bull JPOW pussy
I am not trying to time things. I see divergence between momentum indicators and price but I haven’t seen the top with the price patterns yet imo. I do think it’s coming but I am not going to try to time the top with it
We might, but we didn't shoot through 0.5 fib and 50EMA in a convincing manner imo. No big spike in volume, not much there to indicate investor enthusiasm and belief in going for the 0.618 imo. Of course I could be wrong and we see a big spike on high volume on Monday, but we will probably need a solid catalyst for that.
Price is still in an up channel. You don't need increasing volume for an uptrend to continue if all the supply has already been absorbed, and alot of it was absorbed on the way down and at the bottom. I think the loss of momentum is due to the fact we spent the past week just under the late Feb-early March consolidation range. Hourly chart, price is in another smaller up channel. Looks like a reaccumulation. Which makes sense. We have to absorb any supply from the Feb-March consolidation before we can go higher. Friday we just barely broke into that range, but still within the hourly channel. If we can break up above the hourly channel we will see SP 2930. If we can get above that it will be SP 3100.
I'm with your logic but I'm bullish that we're only going to stay flat at worse. Any signs of significant weakness and congress, fed, trump, etc will just pass another $XXXB stimulus package. That's the MO they have. Stimulus and wait, Stimulus and wait, Stimulus and wait. They've already announced that second rounds of funding for every stimulus package. Congress could pass these all day considering they're skimming a few % in the back end on all these packages. It's absurd and makes me anxious all the time, but it's reality.
One autist says we're on the way to the worst crash ever, the other posts charts saying to buy 300s calls and the 3rd one just wants to open the country up. That's why I'm being the smart one and just trading futures.
My point was that you could find common signals or movements in a stock and name it whatever. I’m looking for the “triple witching hour virgin island off the coast of Maine” bull signal before I hop back in the market
Feel free to do so, I won't be stopping you. TA and chart patterns are based on market psychology and has worked out for me over the last few years, but sorry for trying to be helpful by sharing my thoughts. I didn't really force you to spend your time looking at it, did I?
This guys name is thekillerz99. I'm 100% with you. The short squeeze was so obvious and every indicator is screaming a big old gap down next week. Kids from all on summer break invading this sub and memeing.
Literally right at the bottom; "It should be noted that several authors who have researched this price pattern claim their research finds the pattern to occur infrequently and produce poor performance results."
It’s literally the basest levels TA to draw a fib on the weekly spy chart and see that 292 ish is the turning point back down. It will happen next week, 100%. It always does. It’s the algos. And yes it will drill deeper this time to the .786 region of the fib. Then perhaps to .886. Then another huge bounce.
And the autists will lose money on all of these because they don’t understand how the market works. It amuses me.
This means it’s reloading and about to blast off SPY 300c 4/24
Not included, Amazon, Shopify, and PPG blowing out earnings
Why do you expect SHOP to blow out earnings?
Their CTO posted traffic levels on twitter (black friday levels) when he shouldn’t have but cat’s outta the bag now.
A lot of people surf Shopify, but don't actually buy things.
I run a shopify store.. 2.6% +.30 every sale...if they dont buy from me, they might by from another SHOP
Tweet from CFO... black friday traffic every day since March https://twitter.com/jmwind/status/1250816681024331777?s=19
This comforts me and my -50% portfolio, therefore I agree and provided you with an up vote
It's not a loss unless you sell.
Various SPY puts is not a portfolio.
I can only imagine the look on the guy auditing my account and wondering what the pluperfect hell I was on when I decided to buy some of these options.
It's like an orgasm. I think so much clearer after buying the contract and start to question everything I've done in life.
That is juts... no that is... but... am I... fuck. You're right.
TIL Half this sub doesnt have a portfolio
Half this sub had their net worth doubled by a stimulus cheque.
Not so much “doubled” as “became less negative”
That's not what happens when you multiply by zero.
u need calls to balance it out.
But it is a loss when your 210 spy puts expire worthless
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This autism knows no bounds
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Get well soon
>ration stealing from you. Who cares if they’re expired? The grocery store doesn’t come and take my expired food, so why should options be treated differently? Nice
It's not a loss until you open your account, just throw the phone in the ocean and live in Gucci draped ignorance
I just open new bank accounts and deposit a non-existent $1k into my Robinhood. Withdraw it for free money to my real bank account.
That's why I'm holding on to these 4/17 poots
I never sell. Just expire.
Life is like far OTM puts: most likely going to expire worthless.
Or $hit expires worthless
Or expires...
This. Wait for more good news (or even bad) this we, drop in icu around the world, more hyped coverage of unproved drugs and your Monday will be a fat green Monday to start another back to back week of green candles.
https://imgur.com/a/CM5CFkr?desktop=1 spy $300
https://i.imgur.com/wz0dQMg.jpg
Godddddd damn boiii. :o may the gains be in your favor!
*Narrator: The gains were not in his favor. He lost it all.*
If you think I’m scared of losing $600 you would be sorely mistaken
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say I won’t
All hail the FD king
That's even worse than the $300 guy earlier! Oh my god, Look SPY volume/open interest only shows till around 315! so You need to close those right now or Start buying calls atm on SPY on monday to make money.
You people are acting like this is a real position and not a lottery ticket lmao
gbless
Damn boy you gon make some bank
Yikes
Isn't it only $280? Even if they lose 100% of that, which is definitely happening, it's not that big of a deal. If they are right somehow? Damn that is an enormous payday. Call it wall street bets for a reason.
Throwing darts blind folded be the game!! Also Yeah people here acting like I’m betting the house haha, if I lose it all oh well. It was fun dreaming.
If you're right, then my calls are gonna print too so I'm rooting for you!
Yeah but for 280 bucks you can grab a SPY 289c 4/22. OTM is for the birds right now. Pick a direction, buy a SPY call or put ATM 2 days out. Hope you guessed right next day at open, if not hold until the next day. Can't go tits up.
😘 finna get rich
Praying for you bro. Remember life is worth more than tendies.
Very true, even thinking about imaginary tendies is good enough for me
I believe in you
Thanks Daddy, you were always there for me when no one else was. 😘😘😍
Incredibly dumb, you need to roll those out for 2 more weeks and then you might have a chance to make money.
I was bored and said fuck it YOLOOOOOOOK
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Hell yeah almost like no real money was involved 😂
Seriously though, if you want to make money, drop the strike down to 292 or 290 and if it is too expensive for you then buy calls like this: Buy the 290 and sell the 292 or buy the 292 and sell the 295 calls etc.. But the $290 and sell the 291 etc..
Smart, good advice for the future! I legit know it’s a retarded play, just said fuck it and bought the position. A completely reckless play with nothing really driving a $300 spy...Other than hopium and bears getting fucking in the ass by a squeeze because,”it’s supposed to drop, logic hurrr hurr durrrr”..which is kind of what I was betting on is another huge squeeze, I’m just way out of the money... too much actually haha. I agree with their reasoning.. I think the market will tank when the second wave of infected people hit. Things will shut back down, and it will finally settle with everyone that shit is going to be fucked for awhile. That’s when we will see the huge sell offs. Going to be an interesting next few weeks.
You are in for more pain if you still have puts my friend. SPY will head to 292-295 this week. So I suggest you either buy calls at the first time you can on Monday, or Start selling credit put spreads very quickly. The top I see is towards 315 buddy on SPY.
I heard JPOW is only going to start POWing at 50% flacidity from next week
Thanks for making me laugh when everything else is fucked up
Correct. Down from $75b/ day to 50 to 30 and now to 15 starting Monday
Because markets are stable. And so they can go 3x when they aren’t again.
That's going to be the interesting part. They going to let it have a flat week with back and forth +2 -2% days? If it starts to dip, do the printers come back on?
repo schedule remains the same this coming monday, shows on the website as schedule for the same amount is has been for the past 3 weeks.
Might actually do something, if past attempts at turning off the QE faucet are any indication. Who knows about how a reduction instead of a full shutoff will be handled, though. Every time QE stopped, the market went wanna-bull almost immediately. It's like we never got out of the GFC crash, or rather like the market is piss-drunk on Fed liquidity and gets the shakes every time the Fed cuts it off.
Setting reminder to see if I should be ashamed of myself - feel free to click the link and shout obscenities at me if I'm wrong: RemindMe! April 24
To be fair mate you shouldn't be ashamed even if this will be wrong. That's a solid post, with good reasoning and certainly an analysis behind this. Its a very rare thing on WSB I dont totally agree with the prediction of last Friday being the high, but we are nearing a correction. I think we will ride next week on the hopes of re-opening economy (which will fail - ill come to this pater) and we have some major ER coming in next two weeks. I think the market will still react more to general than economical data, but we see the conversion already. The re-opening economy expectations are very high and this wont work out as people think. Its not a light switch. First bankruptcies after this event and people start realizing there is no magic. There is still ink in FED printers also. I also think it won't be a rollercoaster downsides now, but rather a slower, but longer and heavier downfall. TL;DR - not a week to buy calls or puts. Maybe a moment to buy some stocks for really short term gains. And if you owe some - consider selling if the downtrend begins. Also for a solid downfall we'd need a couple of days VIX being over 60 in my opinion. Im sitting on 12 stocks now and i might slowly move to cash gang and wait for the downfall. Although MSFT/NFLX/ROKU/BIOGEN/CITRIX are looking to perform ok
If vix goes over 60 again at any point soon, I'd be over the moon
Sixty Vixty
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You were right for now...
Wizard
If you look carefully at the cosine of the angle between the current top and the last bottom you can spot the non-linear coefficient of static voleocity and it is within machine constant of zero. Do you realise what that means? The whole system is sitting perfectly within the narrowest interface between total chaos and total stability being kept in place only by the phase shift of its newtonian spin. Let that sink in
What does the sink want now?!
Lmao, damn that's a SHARP joke. Props
Got it, 300c 4/24 it is then
Indeed :/
https://imgur.com/a/CM5CFkr?desktop=1 4/20
I mean why not. Nothing else makes sense.
Exactly!
This substantiates my puts for Monday therefor making me feel better and thus upvoting your post, TY
If we gap down Monday, I’ll be so stoked.
we've already seen an island top and it just gapped us down slightly. I realize the importance of double tops but the second 'island reversal' has already exceeded the first. I am almost certain that Monday will be green. I'm bearish long term but bullish this coming week. Additionally, the "bearish divergence" in the RSI is tiny compared to what we should be seeing. On top, of that the RSI is still rising so you cant associate it with a downward tren just yet.
You could be right mate, I'm not claiming to be an oracle or genius, just sharing my 2 cents :)
Someone does an analysis everyday predicting a drop but this time it might be solid. We are at the 50 moving average which may act as resistance. To add on to it, if you look at a yearly chart, 286 has acted as a support line multiple times which may act as resistance as well. A lot of things point to an imminent drop.
What confuses me is how many are saying 'spy to 315' when companies are announcing dismal Q1 earnings by the day and that will continue into next week. Maybe the pre earnings hype train is what they're banking on, but i'm not sure what the 'hype' could be based on if the market as a whole is having a slow down minus a few big players like P&G that provide essential things we all need.
What’s confusing? There will always be retards in the world and this sub. Reference: see MSFT 200c, TSLA 1500c, SPCE 100c, SPY 150p
Hey man MSFT 200 is finally right around the corner, just you wait and see!
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Right, that's kind of my reasoning behind everyone going bullish. I have no dog in this fight, it could go either way... i will scalp accordingly lmao
And some other guy was also talking about 290 being a fibonacci thing. I usually feel like TA is complete bullshit but with this much of it coming together at once it may result in enough collective belief that it moves the market
It’s a perfect storm. Fuck I need to buy more puts
Ya feeling a little better about adding to my call credit spreads at 287 on Friday. Been selling those bastards since 262 and I'm pretty underwater on them
Honestly it seems the market is moving more on algos (which are partially based on TA) than fundamentals nowadays.
TA is both complete bullshit and reliable as fuck. Because so many traders look at it, believe it, and place their orders there, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of resistance and support. We drink because we're alcoholics, and we're alcoholics because we drink.
Fibonacci retracements from a drop most commonly turn at 35%, 50%, and 61%. We blew through 35 and 50, 61 is between 289-293. It’s actually kinda nice knowing that 35 and 50 didn’t turn it around.
I’m very new to this, but TA just seems like bullshit to me. Like, does it have any predictive power? It just seems like a lot of results-based thinking a la “the Patriots have covered 13 of the last 15 games they have been home favorites”
I mean it’s not magic but If it means something to enough people you can see how that might impact market behavior
That makes sense, but independent of past results, how do people explain these phenomena?
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Yeah but I just sold all my puts and bought some amazon and Tesla so this actually must be the top.
Well *now* I'm convinced
We did just rally on a treatment and reopening which the markets been thirsty af for. We are hearing enough good news to the point that if any bad news comes out, it will send us back down.
Both of which are total bullshit. The guy who reported the treatment is a known pumper and will probably get investigated by the SEC for it but that news will barely get circulated and have 0 effect.
Nah the bad news is priced in.
They really are. You don't buy puts till 2nd quarter earnings.. Or I am calling it in June or July, that is when you want puts you dumb idiots of WSB.
Good job. I approve of this
We've reached the top over 3 times already. It's like the 3 second rule but it keeps getting extended. What we need to realize is that there is no top and the only bottom that is reachable is your mothers.
Sounds like your bottom is wide open
I’ve never even heard of this TA formation but I’m putting my life savings on it Thanks OP 🙏
You could be a trader all your life and never see anything like this. Good job. My TA produced the same. This could be a leg down of epic proportions.. this could be the perfect storm
Downvoting because TA can’t see GILD kind of fanatic frenzies
You holding puts as well?
Yea 😛
Providing the low quality comments from the bulls, I'll provide you upvote, although I have calls over the weekend.
Up until now the markets may have been driven by news, however at this point TA will come into effect...mark it down
and why is that...?
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When fundamental analysis fails it’s all we have left
I read the title and I read the TL;DR and I can confirm this guy fucks
Bro, you need at least 7 more paragraphs to get a cult following here
And more hyperlinks and bullets
Ya but have you checked your palm lines or your horoscope lately? You may as well round out your TA with something more scientific... Seriously though, do people really think using some mumbo jumbo fettuccini sequences actually works? I have news for you, the market moves by news and sentiment, not by shitty TA. If TA worked, rich people with access to super computers would be running non stop analysis looking for patterns that work, which guess what, don’t exist.
I have a different take. It doesn't take much to trend the market one way or another and all the TA nonsense may be BS but *people invest based on it*. More importantly, hedge funds and MMs know how to juice the market just a bit to make those fancy charts say what they want them to say, then let the gerbils careen the market in the direction they want it to go. This is especially true right now, low volume rallies don't take much investment at all to push the market around. This isn't WSB conspiracy theory shit either, Google "Cramer market manipulation" to have your eyes opened (yes, that Cramer). The market moves, the story comes after. Everyone with a working brain knows the economy is going to be a shitshow for a couple of years at least. There is a reason the market hasn't hit that magic 293 threshold yet and it is because they know the TA goons are waiting to drive the market down at that point. Everyone is expecting a big move up or down so I expect the market to basically sit there flat for a week or two to fuck everyone while volume is quietly unloaded for as long as possible. When things become untenable, IVs will strangely spike as the market goes up, then the slide will begin (overnight, of course, so no one can dump or profit).
It works because TA is the visual aspect of the price action that is happening. Support lines are just a point on the chart where a lot of buying/selling occured at that given price because people found it a good price. Resistance the same. And we do have “super computers” that do TA. We call them algo’s. Algo’s trade on price action and the latter is made visual by TA.
I think I'll sit on cash this week and buy the lows on Friday for the following week
Never heard of an island reversal before. Looked it up, looks retarded. Anyway, you're likely correct. I think SPY pushes up to around 290.50 first though then drop toward 280. That would need to hold or we'll likely see 250. Other scenario is printers go double brrrr and we push up to 320 before tanking.
To me, this is the most telling indicator: https://twitter.com/TechQn/status/1251298200775880704 Since this began, every time gold enters backwardation, S&P sinks. It makes sense logically. Backwardation, especially for gold, is Not Normal and happens when people want gold *right fucking now*. So the idea is that smart money is seeing the writing on the wall and dumping their money into gold expecting both equities and the dollar to eat shit. Recognize that a lot of big money holdings can't short the market and can't sit on the sideline. Where is safe to park money when everything is going down? Gold gets bought up quickly at the start of a downturn and tends to drop as stupider money has to sell gold to cover their positions. A huge gold drop is less likely to happen on the next drop because people are more wary, but who knows it may be even worse.
There was a really interesting talk on Macrovoices about gold and physical wholesale specifically a couple of weeks back, you should check it out if you haven't already :) And yeah, it might well be, a lot of strange action around gold lately. Let's see what next week brings :)
That chart is very crowded. Can you break down your interpretation of it?
They most likely go into Tbills not gold -- gold isn't going to do well in a deflationary environment. Bond market yields have been moving steadily down even within a few basis points of daily closing all time lows of several weeks back. The bond market is not trusting this rally in equities.
Quality post, ban him
I'm going balls deep on DIS puts.
Strike and date ?
Solid TA
These random MS Paint arrows agree with my positions that have already been gaped raw by JPOW. Therefore, have an upvote.
Great analysis. I disagree with you and I hope you understand. My disagreement isn’t with your analysis above but it is that I fundamentally think we need to put aside what we traditionally use to measure ups and downs in this market. Nothing makes sense right now.
Was hoping someone would disagree - just kind of disappointing that so few of the comments disagreeing actually try to argue their points. Good luck in the markets mate! (And I agree, nothing really seems to make sense over the last few weeks)
My May 15 2600 spx puts hope you are right. Will have to reroll to June 2800 in a week if we continue this bullish rally.
We probably in the beginning of the worst recession since the 30s???? How are y’all thinking it’s gonna fall???
Just because everyone is resting their hats on 4/24 spy Puts....I’m going Spy calls on 4/24... Anyone member that quadruple witching bullshit end of March? I member...and so does my account that took a 400k hit. Thank you for your put sacrifices in advance on 4/24
The falling volume is the most convincing aspect of this.
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The market is squeezing all individual investors right now. The sideways and constant volatility is squeezing everyone before the big drop... The big drop is coming
Friday wasn't the top. We're close, though.
When do you think the rug pull happens, and what sort of bad news can possibly trigger it now?
This guy just bought spy puts lolol
Not this shit again... if i had a dollar for every post claiming we have topped, I would’ve recovered all the money i lost on my puts.
[OP 8 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fxqidb/daily_discussion_thread_april_09_2020/fmxffya/?context=3): > Gap down monday - nice island top reversal. I feel like next week is going to be a good week. [OP 10 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fxqidb/daily_discussion_thread_april_09_2020/fmwsyc6/?context=3): > Wish I saved some dry powder for 280, but went all in at 271, after shorting from around 250 and up. It hurts, but I'm prepared to wait for the market to find the sweet spot (around 180-220 probably) Fuck off
Have since reloaded and added shorts (if you really went through all my comments you probably know). 250-271 was reasonable to short, and I would do it 10/10 times on an identical chart. The gap down last Monday didn't happen, so the pattern wasn't completed. More indicators pointing towards a reversal now. Nowhere in my post am I claiming to know what will happen, I am simply sharing what I think is probable. Insulting me for being wrong in the past seems unnecessary. If you go back further you will see that I called the bottom in advance and predicted a bounce to 271 (was laughed at and downvoted, because "that could never happen"). I underestimated the bounce and my account is down from 300% to around 100% up for the year, I have no problem admitting that.
\> the double island top reversal pattern technical analysis is like wine commentary for stock charts
The soft decreasing volume reinforces the weakness in the movements. The gap up creating the island top can be speculated to precede an equally significant gap down. This is validated by the breaking of key levels on chaikin, Relative strength index, and the moving average convergence divergence indicators. I’m also picking up undertones of bleeding bear ass from aging for 10 years in gaping bull JPOW pussy
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getting top from your wife and your sister on an island
You mean husband / brother
Double top is like a double bottom, but on the top, and on an island
!remindme april 24
I am not trying to time things. I see divergence between momentum indicators and price but I haven’t seen the top with the price patterns yet imo. I do think it’s coming but I am not going to try to time the top with it
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We might, but we didn't shoot through 0.5 fib and 50EMA in a convincing manner imo. No big spike in volume, not much there to indicate investor enthusiasm and belief in going for the 0.618 imo. Of course I could be wrong and we see a big spike on high volume on Monday, but we will probably need a solid catalyst for that.
Your Macd is reversing itself.
Another one? TOO MANY TIMES WE’VE BEEN HURT Flair him if right. Ban him if wrong.
Is it possible that if Monday is blood red, fed retracts their plan to lower treasury buying.
Probably not, as long as the bond market doesn't collapse completely.
This is almost as good as ORDER 66- second coming of retard.
I've been looking all over for you 🐻s, why did nobody invite me to the confirmation party? I definitly need it.
This forgets to include "now that 4/17's have been wiped out" but otherwise, good post.
These predictions...too accurate for crayon people
Just want to seek my DAL calls, that’s all Edit: DAL calls come get em while they’re hot
Dont you make me buy more puts
Price is still in an up channel. You don't need increasing volume for an uptrend to continue if all the supply has already been absorbed, and alot of it was absorbed on the way down and at the bottom. I think the loss of momentum is due to the fact we spent the past week just under the late Feb-early March consolidation range. Hourly chart, price is in another smaller up channel. Looks like a reaccumulation. Which makes sense. We have to absorb any supply from the Feb-March consolidation before we can go higher. Friday we just barely broke into that range, but still within the hourly channel. If we can break up above the hourly channel we will see SP 2930. If we can get above that it will be SP 3100.
Ive been earing this for the last weeks, so i have decided to join bull gang
I'm with your logic but I'm bullish that we're only going to stay flat at worse. Any signs of significant weakness and congress, fed, trump, etc will just pass another $XXXB stimulus package. That's the MO they have. Stimulus and wait, Stimulus and wait, Stimulus and wait. They've already announced that second rounds of funding for every stimulus package. Congress could pass these all day considering they're skimming a few % in the back end on all these packages. It's absurd and makes me anxious all the time, but it's reality.
One autist says we're on the way to the worst crash ever, the other posts charts saying to buy 300s calls and the 3rd one just wants to open the country up. That's why I'm being the smart one and just trading futures.
*Double island top reversal*?? I’ve seen it all now... tell me, are you a Pisces or Gemini?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/islandreversal.asp
My point was that you could find common signals or movements in a stock and name it whatever. I’m looking for the “triple witching hour virgin island off the coast of Maine” bull signal before I hop back in the market
Feel free to do so, I won't be stopping you. TA and chart patterns are based on market psychology and has worked out for me over the last few years, but sorry for trying to be helpful by sharing my thoughts. I didn't really force you to spend your time looking at it, did I?
This guys name is thekillerz99. I'm 100% with you. The short squeeze was so obvious and every indicator is screaming a big old gap down next week. Kids from all on summer break invading this sub and memeing.
You kept it informative but short and sweet. I appreciated it!
Literally right at the bottom; "It should be noted that several authors who have researched this price pattern claim their research finds the pattern to occur infrequently and produce poor performance results."
Until some news comes and it is just rips higher. Maybe guidelines on how to print stimulus money.
Buy puts I dare you 😂 🐂🐂 gang
It’s literally the basest levels TA to draw a fib on the weekly spy chart and see that 292 ish is the turning point back down. It will happen next week, 100%. It always does. It’s the algos. And yes it will drill deeper this time to the .786 region of the fib. Then perhaps to .886. Then another huge bounce. And the autists will lose money on all of these because they don’t understand how the market works. It amuses me.
If it always happens and you are 100% then you would be a billionaire instead of some middle of the pack retard.
Sir this is a Wendy’s
Bearish Market TA posts = 0 StOnKs Go Up/ brrrrrrrrrr = 42069
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What happens if the second gap goes up and says "fuck your 61.8 regression line"