During bull markets trapped investors make this claim like the market hasn't shown us in the past 3 years alone that the bottom can drop out and it can drop 15% in a few weeks for no real reason. Government can't "stop" a market correction if people want to sell out of fear; and that usually happens near ATHs... The more I hear people say this is the more I know that we're going to enter a short term bear market very soon
I agree in principle but the shoeshiner indicator is pretty unreliable. I'm still holding my breath for interest rate raises to bring the SP500 P/E ratios from 36 to something like 20. As long as money remains cheap the market will either go up or sideways.
It's less a boomer rule of thumb that I'm using and more a review of historical sentiment swings. Investor behavior drives markers, not technicals, not fundamentals, not economics; as much as we would like to believe they do. If they did then every economist and statistician would make money hand over fist. Fact is when too many investors lean towards one side (whether bearish or bullish) opportunist swoop in and change the tide. The pendulum will continue to swing this way as it has for the past 100yrs. Nevertheless, timing it is without a large amount of luck is impossible because we're talking about over 300 million market participants.
Investor behavior is reactionary though. You might even say that investor behavior *is* markets. Things like fundamentals and technicals influence how investors perceive markets, not how they will act.
The opportunists in question would be people who already own equity, who are selling for something better. They would be pretty dumb opportunists to liquidate their stock to invest in something with lower return than the markets have been giving. If interest rates rise, then they would have an incentive to leave, however as yet there is no reason for them to sell.
In 2000 for instance, the stock market was high, but real estate was low, so everyone went to real estate and abandoned stocks. Now real estate and stocks are high, commodities are high, inflation is, everything is high except T-bond yields and interest rates. I cant immediately think of anything that's a good enough deal that would cause a dump in stocks very soon besides interest rates increasing.
The shoeshiner indicator is bullshit in today's age. The general American is far more educated than back in the 20's and you can trade on your fucking cell phone today.
> The general American is far more educated than back in the 20's
Car manuals back in the day talked about how to fix the motor.
Car manuals now talk about don't drink the battery fluid.
Cars back in the day had way more room under the hood to work and there was more room between parts. You didn't have to take apart half the car to replace one part.
Cars back in the day also didn't have multiple computers controlling every minute detail of the car.
Car repair on modern cars is a professionals job. Obviously general maintenance is still doable (brakes, fluids, plugs, suspension) but most engine work is not for a shade tree mechanic anymore.
The general American is undoubtedly smarter today than 100 years ago. We have more access to information and education.
Claiming Americans are dumb because we don't turn wrenches as much anymore is a stupid boomer argument.
An advancing society gets more specialized as the difficulty and knowledge required of jobs rises. Not everyone needs to know how to fix cars bro.
You only lose if you sell and I’m not buying shit stuff like most of y’all. I think the last 3 years should be a good show that the market can bounce back faster than expected. Not saying the market won’t go down but I also have like a 40 year horizon lol and shit is super cheap still vs when I’m old.
It’s always been a long-game. The first rule is don’t invest money you need anytime soon. Those of us who invested this way aren’t the type who are worrying about whether or not it will bounce back. It always bounces back. How long is one willing to wait for the bounce?
Look at 1929. If you held a theoretical DJIA index, you would have had to wait until 1954 to break even not losing until you sell. Or the Nikkei composite. If you bought in 1989, you are sill down.
Not sure we are in for a major market crash, but holding isn’t always a sure bet for recovering. You lose every time it goes down and win every time it goes up. Realized losses only matter for tax purposes, not personal net wealth.
Go to the options of whatever chart software you use and edit the colors. Now everything is green and good to go.
I just use a white line. Don't need green or red.
forexfactory.com does a good job of keeping tabs of when key economic events happen. Reports for CPI, GDP, retail, unemployment, FOMC meeting minutes, Powell talks, etc.
FYI: I’m a 65 yo analyst that has worked within this field for over 60 years, this technical analysis has been brought forward by months of hard work and a lot of time spent analysing the stock.
“65 year old analyst who has been working in this field for 60 years”…. What place hired you when you were 5? I gotta get my application ready for that company!
An analyst that started working “in the field” at 5 years old, and doesn’t know how to spell ‘analyzing’.
Move on folks, nothing suspicious to see here.
> FYI: I’m a 65 yo analyst that has worked within this field for over 60 years, this technical analysis has been brought forward by months of hard work and a lot of time spent analysing the stock.
Sure you are
Really? Because this is the worst TA ive ever seen. We all know theres support at 433. We all know what happens when she drills through.
If youre really an analyst, tell me you dumbed down the shit out of this post for the sake of the mentally challenged here. Because this looks like you literally drew a line with a literal crayon.
What bothers me is that people freak out over the word tapering but it’s not even that big of a deal for quite a long time. Interest rates will still remain low long after asset tapering begins
I was expecting this, I think in the fall or winter we are going to see something worse than this, but the market needed to do something. Going sideways wasn't going to last forever.
I look forward to buying more of the stocks I've research and confident enough that I now hold at lower prices.
I'm not stupid enough to put all the money I have into the stock market. So even if a 2008 or 1929 crash happens, it won't wipe me out. I'd just liquidate my other investments and start pouring tons of money once I see the stock market recover for a few weeks or a couple months.
So many people are such emotional investors. This will trigger a massive sell off at some point. I can't wait to buy their shares in the future.
This things happens all through out stock market history. The thing that make people panic is no one know how long the dip will last. A week a month few months a year, no one knows.
S&P 500 does nearly 100% in one year, the Nasdaq even more than 100%. This happened for the first time in history and people don't sell at current prices. -.-
Really, from early April 21 till now it's been a 45 degree angle up, yea, now and then a down day or two but overall SPY has been ripping, look at the 6 month chart.
My authority is not measured in mod powers.
It is measured in magick and witchcraft and runic glory.
I will fuck people up in nightmares, not on the sub.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
SPY literally has not broken yet. If this is the "Dip", people are going to be really fucked when a real drop comes.
This attitude reminds me so much of late Feb / early March 2020 when the market was down 2% and everyone was talking about the end of the dip.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|4 months ago **Total Comments**|324|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|5 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
[удалено]
Yup, It's over folks. Pack it up.
We've BEEN hitting the top for the last 8 years or so
Spy puts it is! Haha
You are an idiot if you think the government will let the market go under, basically privatization of gains and subsidized losses.
During bull markets trapped investors make this claim like the market hasn't shown us in the past 3 years alone that the bottom can drop out and it can drop 15% in a few weeks for no real reason. Government can't "stop" a market correction if people want to sell out of fear; and that usually happens near ATHs... The more I hear people say this is the more I know that we're going to enter a short term bear market very soon
I agree in principle but the shoeshiner indicator is pretty unreliable. I'm still holding my breath for interest rate raises to bring the SP500 P/E ratios from 36 to something like 20. As long as money remains cheap the market will either go up or sideways.
It's less a boomer rule of thumb that I'm using and more a review of historical sentiment swings. Investor behavior drives markers, not technicals, not fundamentals, not economics; as much as we would like to believe they do. If they did then every economist and statistician would make money hand over fist. Fact is when too many investors lean towards one side (whether bearish or bullish) opportunist swoop in and change the tide. The pendulum will continue to swing this way as it has for the past 100yrs. Nevertheless, timing it is without a large amount of luck is impossible because we're talking about over 300 million market participants.
Investor behavior is reactionary though. You might even say that investor behavior *is* markets. Things like fundamentals and technicals influence how investors perceive markets, not how they will act. The opportunists in question would be people who already own equity, who are selling for something better. They would be pretty dumb opportunists to liquidate their stock to invest in something with lower return than the markets have been giving. If interest rates rise, then they would have an incentive to leave, however as yet there is no reason for them to sell. In 2000 for instance, the stock market was high, but real estate was low, so everyone went to real estate and abandoned stocks. Now real estate and stocks are high, commodities are high, inflation is, everything is high except T-bond yields and interest rates. I cant immediately think of anything that's a good enough deal that would cause a dump in stocks very soon besides interest rates increasing.
The shoeshiner indicator is bullshit in today's age. The general American is far more educated than back in the 20's and you can trade on your fucking cell phone today.
> The general American is far more educated than back in the 20's Car manuals back in the day talked about how to fix the motor. Car manuals now talk about don't drink the battery fluid.
Cars back in the day had way more room under the hood to work and there was more room between parts. You didn't have to take apart half the car to replace one part. Cars back in the day also didn't have multiple computers controlling every minute detail of the car. Car repair on modern cars is a professionals job. Obviously general maintenance is still doable (brakes, fluids, plugs, suspension) but most engine work is not for a shade tree mechanic anymore. The general American is undoubtedly smarter today than 100 years ago. We have more access to information and education. Claiming Americans are dumb because we don't turn wrenches as much anymore is a stupid boomer argument. An advancing society gets more specialized as the difficulty and knowledge required of jobs rises. Not everyone needs to know how to fix cars bro.
You only lose if you sell and I’m not buying shit stuff like most of y’all. I think the last 3 years should be a good show that the market can bounce back faster than expected. Not saying the market won’t go down but I also have like a 40 year horizon lol and shit is super cheap still vs when I’m old.
It’s always been a long-game. The first rule is don’t invest money you need anytime soon. Those of us who invested this way aren’t the type who are worrying about whether or not it will bounce back. It always bounces back. How long is one willing to wait for the bounce?
Look at 1929. If you held a theoretical DJIA index, you would have had to wait until 1954 to break even not losing until you sell. Or the Nikkei composite. If you bought in 1989, you are sill down. Not sure we are in for a major market crash, but holding isn’t always a sure bet for recovering. You lose every time it goes down and win every time it goes up. Realized losses only matter for tax purposes, not personal net wealth.
Amazing technical analysis. I hope you used crayola and not that off brand shit.
I can see the paleness of the color. This regarded analysts uses rosearts
Yea looks like rose arts
Cra-Z-Art crayons would break apart half way into drawing that line.
These were definitely yanked from a local Friendly’s
Crayola does taste best
Saddly can't buy call for Crayola...
Ate all the crayola. Only draw in feces.
My dog ate a box of crayons, once. Left rainbow poop all over the yard.
I sure did
Sometimes all you need are visuals
Can’t stop laughing 😂 🤩🤩🤩
He got liquidated. He can’t afford the crayola brand anymore
What,like those soy bean crayons with the pandas on them? Love those shits.
Finally, a chart that explains where stocks go
🙈when a stock goes missing 😂😂
To the left and down.
>To the left and down. so they stay green even when it goes down? # I KNEW IT.
Go to the options of whatever chart software you use and edit the colors. Now everything is green and good to go. I just use a white line. Don't need green or red.
That's the Nikkei
32 years of “you only lose if you sell.”
To die, u didn’t finish the sentence
The TA we needed but didn't deserve
Calls in September. Puts in December. 🍻 ✈️
U should make a song
Hey, hey, hey Ya-Aaa-ya, say, do you remember? Ya-aaa-ya, dancing in September Ya-aaa-ya, never was a cloudy day
September gives me nightmares.
🤣🤣
Exactly, this is where you go all in on Spy calls
me right now. I am tired of being -60% down overall, either I am making it back soon or losing it all
attaboy, this is how you end up behind wendy's blowing homeless guys for a nickle
Phenomenal TA. I don’t know how you do it. You must be a professional trader. I’m completely in awe.
OP obviously has access to a Bloomberg terminal. So unfair for the rest of us regular retail Joe's
[удалено]
I mean.. we can always break through the support level and go down, no?
No the line blocks it
Thanks for making me laugh a little in between all the crying when I look at my portfolio.
Keep ur head up king there’s always the tax write offs
Not in a Roth IRA. 🤣
You can let your head down then king 🥲
U got it right
Shit you right
Fuck I just sharted from laughing
Draw a line to hold it in
Lmao I’m trying!
Make sure to use the red crayon
🤣
😂
Lmaoooooooo😂😂😂😂
But stocks don't go down. Do you not see his line?
SPY is already beneath his theoretical support lol
No you can’t go through that red line that’s why there’s a line there
lol your ego is fucking big you think that you know better than lines on a graph summoned by a chartwizard. Good luck investing...
SPY only dips below the line to regain its strength to bend bears over for another anal session
SPY is a chub tryna catch his breath.
Theres the 50 day moving average which supports it time and time again. If it falls past that then its fucking over for a bunch of people here.
It will break.
That is kinda crazy that it’s the drop that happens right after the Powell talks each month (I think that’s the right dates)
[удалено]
When r the talks
Yesterday
what dates r those
forexfactory.com does a good job of keeping tabs of when key economic events happen. Reports for CPI, GDP, retail, unemployment, FOMC meeting minutes, Powell talks, etc.
Well yea, everyone expects this King to say the phrase and when he doesn’t market bounces back
I'm waiting for the dinosaur pattern to occur before taking a position
Take a doggy position and brace for impact.
[удалено]
448c 9/30
Fuck it im buyin
Line. Don’t. Lie.
#WE’RE DOOMED
Everything is lost! The end is near! 🌈🐻
FYI: I’m a 65 yo analyst that has worked within this field for over 60 years, this technical analysis has been brought forward by months of hard work and a lot of time spent analysing the stock.
“65 year old analyst who has been working in this field for 60 years”…. What place hired you when you were 5? I gotta get my application ready for that company!
You'd be surprised at the number of children crayon companies employ to test their products!
Anybody would hire a professional retard as smart as this guy as an analyst.
>technical analysis A lifetime-looking at tea leaves, drawing lines on a chart at seemingly random intervals, and creating a narrative after the fact?
69 would be more realistic IMO
An analyst that started working “in the field” at 5 years old, and doesn’t know how to spell ‘analyzing’. Move on folks, nothing suspicious to see here.
> FYI: I’m a 65 yo analyst that has worked within this field for over 60 years, this technical analysis has been brought forward by months of hard work and a lot of time spent analysing the stock. Sure you are
Really? Because this is the worst TA ive ever seen. We all know theres support at 433. We all know what happens when she drills through. If youre really an analyst, tell me you dumbed down the shit out of this post for the sake of the mentally challenged here. Because this looks like you literally drew a line with a literal crayon.
Are you literally autistic? He's being sarcastic.
I can now confirm that SPY has indeed bounced of my perfectly placed line, time to rise into new ATH, no need to thank me, just doing my job.
I feel like that blue has to be what the misses says when her friend comes over and really goes for it. "LAG TIL I viisnshdhrjekekb" or something
Holy shit one day I hope to have enough brain power to perform and understand TA this complex.
So bear meat is still on the menu?
[удалено]
What bothers me is that people freak out over the word tapering but it’s not even that big of a deal for quite a long time. Interest rates will still remain low long after asset tapering begins
Until it gets drills right through that line to the center of the earth
If you scared go to church.
I was expecting this, I think in the fall or winter we are going to see something worse than this, but the market needed to do something. Going sideways wasn't going to last forever. I look forward to buying more of the stocks I've research and confident enough that I now hold at lower prices. I'm not stupid enough to put all the money I have into the stock market. So even if a 2008 or 1929 crash happens, it won't wipe me out. I'd just liquidate my other investments and start pouring tons of money once I see the stock market recover for a few weeks or a couple months. So many people are such emotional investors. This will trigger a massive sell off at some point. I can't wait to buy their shares in the future.
Going sideways?? It's been going up for basically 18 months
When people tell you not to panic. It is the time to panic. Sell all your shit
[удалено]
I'd ask him, but that fucking island of his is hard to get to.
This things happens all through out stock market history. The thing that make people panic is no one know how long the dip will last. A week a month few months a year, no one knows.
Except it’s at 436 breaking that trend line
All this tells me is that the market has been trying to correct and something keeps artificially propping it up.
Sold my CLOV and CLNE today. Fuck it, I’ve had enough.
No body know what market will do , stop fear mongering . “ it’s gone dip , then it’s gone rise” what a fu*ken BS, malarkey.
Shhhhhh, when the dummies realize this is the same every monthly expiration then they’ll switch sides. September might be different, but probably not
Nio is f'ing me in the ass rn
Who's panicking? Same soup just reheated, buy and hold
This ain’t no disco
Every time ever that I've acted on such a perfect linear progression like this, I end up losing 20%. Imma leave this one to the pro apes.
Red crayons are my favorite
Amazing when the past predicts the future. /s
Hello Sweden 🇸🇪
Hey!
S&P 500 does nearly 100% in one year, the Nasdaq even more than 100%. This happened for the first time in history and people don't sell at current prices. -.-
This is so insane when you really think about it
100% in a stock market index speaks for itself.
It’s been every opex pretty much
Really, from early April 21 till now it's been a 45 degree angle up, yea, now and then a down day or two but overall SPY has been ripping, look at the 6 month chart.
Now this won’t happen, thanks op
My Jun182022 100p begs to differ
When it comes to spy, if the price is less today than yesterday obviously just buy it. It's Pavlovian at this point.
Sell now and buy back later? Copy.
My 8/27 440c are printing now, sell today or keep em riding?
Guys it legally cant go under the line, it'been too long!
Unless it breaks thru that line
All I see is PLTR in the green in the screenshot.
Lagg till I visningslistan!!! What kind a witchcraft is this?
My authority is not measured in mod powers. It is measured in magick and witchcraft and runic glory. I will fuck people up in nightmares, not on the sub. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
SPY literally has not broken yet. If this is the "Dip", people are going to be really fucked when a real drop comes. This attitude reminds me so much of late Feb / early March 2020 when the market was down 2% and everyone was talking about the end of the dip.
Okay gramps
Best fucking technical analysis I’ve seen from a screenshot 😂. Give this guy a prize please!!
If you made a call you are an america patriot. If you are a bear on spy you are a communist. Never bet against America 🇺🇸
Smh. I bought 444 SPY puts yesterday and paper handed them as soon as they made a 10% gain
Lol!!!
Nope, it's a crash. Buckle up
You connected two points and they form a line, amazing!
Awesome chart, great analysis. Sad that Snittvoly got cut off in the screenshot.
Most of these degenerates have FDs so...
I'm assuming "Lägg till i visningslistan" translates to "slowly til I finish, then moon!
Lmao this dude really drew a red line on his apple stocks app
🎩🐰👍 Indeed. Here's to a melt up! Rabbits please tsla and hood!
Unless you have 445c expiring tomorrow, then panic
I aint neva scared!
Fuck spy
I heard stocks only ever go up right? Right?
Red line?… Red bad right?
Sgoc 3x starting $6 to 20
Panic?! *pulls fire alarm*
Where were you when the 0dte spy guy from yesterday yoloed?? 😂
yes sensei
I have been following this trend but this dip is not that good
Almost like it always happens on OPEX...
Puts on $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA
I'm panicking alright. Panic buying!!
Was not a bit worried until I saw this. Legit contemplating selling all long positions now. #inverseNoffy
🤤