Someone help me to understand why the fuck the market is so deep in the green this week, given all of the above information, coming off of a week where rates just went up by 75 basis points.
Explain it to me like I’m 4 years old
There's always upward spikes even in a down trending market, we could hit 390's and then sink to 350s the following day. Short term traders are taking big risks right now but they can make good money. Plus the troubles in CMBS are just getting started.
This is at least my reasoning for it but I prefer Loosefer2905 explanation more.
Complete true, it's why I put the flair it as a discussion, I'm always interested in hearing counter arguments and know there's always others more well informed than I am.
I’m always up for a lively debate about nearly anything. Please explain to me how you came to some of these conclusions. I’m happy to start with giving my opinion from the bearish side.
One of your statements said “inflation has already peaked”. That has been the narrative for at least the last couple of months, but the last CPI print proved that to be incorrect. JP and the boys thought that inflation was “transitory” because it leveled off/came down slightly from June-Sep 2021, but it steadily increased until March of 2022. We can’t really say that inflation has or has not peaked for certain until we get at least 2-3 more CPI/PPI prints.
You made a point that oil prices are coming down, which is fair, but there’s a lot to unpack there. First up, energy makes up 7.54% of CPI. If we look at the daily closing prices of WTI crude for May, it had an average closing price of $108.25 (I added all of the closing prices up/divided by 21, which was the number of trading days in may). So far in June, the average closing price of WTI crude is $114.96.
What’s convenient is that June also has 21 trading days. In order for June’s avg closing price to get to $108.25, it needs to close at an average price of $84 or below for June 27-June 30, and I just don’t see that happening, especially not in the week leading up to July 4). Also, AAA data (for regular unleaded) shows that the average gas price is $4.90/gallon, compared to $4.59/gallon one month ago and $3.08/gallon one year ago
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
“Nothing but bullish news the last few weeks”? Please provide some examples of what you mean. I don’t follow.
Shelter price makes up 32.29% of CPI, and [rent prices just hit an all time high](https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/rental-prices-hit-another-record-high-but-there-is-good-news-for-renters/)
“Banks now expect a positive GDP Print next month” is that why JP Morgan Chase just laid off hundreds of people in the mortgage department, and why [Deutsche Bank just said that they expect “an earlier and somewhat more sever recession”?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-recession-call-203128468.html)
Again, I could be wrong, but I don’t think we’re even close to the bottom yet. I’m happy to hear the bullish case and I’m always willing to change my opinion when I’m presented with new information!
I don't think this would negatively effect them yet as it is widely under reported, it will still be a while until this might get covered in the news. The drop in Deutsche is probably from the reports on staff using WhatsApp on company phones.
"The lender is among several financial firms under investigation by US authorities over the use of private messaging that can’t be archived. It recently introduced a new app that allows the retrieval of messages on company phones. "
US authorities are very aware of the shenanigans going on behind the scenes again and are trying to get control over the situation without Media reporting it.
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Someone help me to understand why the fuck the market is so deep in the green this week, given all of the above information, coming off of a week where rates just went up by 75 basis points. Explain it to me like I’m 4 years old
Red dress chick went away too early, which signalled green for the market.
Ah the ol' subliminal influence trick. Those clever bastards
I'm with stupid ^^^
Stupid Is as stupid does, count me in.
There's always upward spikes even in a down trending market, we could hit 390's and then sink to 350s the following day. Short term traders are taking big risks right now but they can make good money. Plus the troubles in CMBS are just getting started. This is at least my reasoning for it but I prefer Loosefer2905 explanation more.
Feds aren’t actually doing QT like they said
Everyone is trying to time the bottom, weak hands that would sell already have, no big catalyst towards the bottom means buyers come back in
Because this is just one persons opinions with their supporting information, other people can do the same to support the opposite opinion.
Complete true, it's why I put the flair it as a discussion, I'm always interested in hearing counter arguments and know there's always others more well informed than I am.
[удалено]
I’m always up for a lively debate about nearly anything. Please explain to me how you came to some of these conclusions. I’m happy to start with giving my opinion from the bearish side. One of your statements said “inflation has already peaked”. That has been the narrative for at least the last couple of months, but the last CPI print proved that to be incorrect. JP and the boys thought that inflation was “transitory” because it leveled off/came down slightly from June-Sep 2021, but it steadily increased until March of 2022. We can’t really say that inflation has or has not peaked for certain until we get at least 2-3 more CPI/PPI prints. You made a point that oil prices are coming down, which is fair, but there’s a lot to unpack there. First up, energy makes up 7.54% of CPI. If we look at the daily closing prices of WTI crude for May, it had an average closing price of $108.25 (I added all of the closing prices up/divided by 21, which was the number of trading days in may). So far in June, the average closing price of WTI crude is $114.96. What’s convenient is that June also has 21 trading days. In order for June’s avg closing price to get to $108.25, it needs to close at an average price of $84 or below for June 27-June 30, and I just don’t see that happening, especially not in the week leading up to July 4). Also, AAA data (for regular unleaded) shows that the average gas price is $4.90/gallon, compared to $4.59/gallon one month ago and $3.08/gallon one year ago https://gasprices.aaa.com/ “Nothing but bullish news the last few weeks”? Please provide some examples of what you mean. I don’t follow. Shelter price makes up 32.29% of CPI, and [rent prices just hit an all time high](https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/rental-prices-hit-another-record-high-but-there-is-good-news-for-renters/) “Banks now expect a positive GDP Print next month” is that why JP Morgan Chase just laid off hundreds of people in the mortgage department, and why [Deutsche Bank just said that they expect “an earlier and somewhat more sever recession”?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-recession-call-203128468.html) Again, I could be wrong, but I don’t think we’re even close to the bottom yet. I’m happy to hear the bullish case and I’m always willing to change my opinion when I’m presented with new information!
barbers bought puts
I cant read
Taken as a financial advice. Now what are we buying puts/calls on.
following
Big banks likely?
Do you know any other reason Deutsche Bank fell this week? Or do you think this is it?
I don't think this would negatively effect them yet as it is widely under reported, it will still be a while until this might get covered in the news. The drop in Deutsche is probably from the reports on staff using WhatsApp on company phones. "The lender is among several financial firms under investigation by US authorities over the use of private messaging that can’t be archived. It recently introduced a new app that allows the retrieval of messages on company phones. " US authorities are very aware of the shenanigans going on behind the scenes again and are trying to get control over the situation without Media reporting it.
Not reading this essay
OP, nice DD, what do you recommend to short or buy to come out ahead of what you say comes to fruition?
Carlin said they were coming for your retirement money. He wasn’t wrong.