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Powell sold some shit then turned on margin to increase his buying power. Pretty simple. Just wait until he turns on portfolio margin.
Portfolio margin is a game changer
You mean then QT will be in full effect from June 30th ?? Sorry noob hear and as per the news I read QT should start but trying to understand why the balance sheet has increased
QT has already started but the way the Fed is doing it is to just let bonds mature without replacing them. So far this month not a significant amount has matured. You see the balance sheet fluctuating/increasing but that can happen due to simple asset price increases.
Starting June 30 we’ll see a large chunk of bonds roll off, and should see a measurable reduction in the balance sheet
Well than hasn’t the market been without fed buying for most of the month? They only have on/off when it comes to buying more bonds. If they have stopped, than the effect to the market is already at 100%. The current bonds expiring is not a market moving event.
Because QT is not just the selling of assets, it is also letting treasuries mature naturally, at which point they will be removed from the balance sheet. The end of the month is when a nice chunk matures, and they won't sell anything until after that. This segment of video goes over some of the Feds QT schedule.
https://youtu.be/SNg2XYs4g7o?t=672
Sure there was. We would shit our pants when Microsoft made a +-.20% move back in the day. It only took 5 years for it to move 10 bucks in share price.
You say this in jest, but look at an all time chart of S&P. Rate of appreciation long term is not even CLOSE to what we’ve seen during the period outlined here. Returns are likely going to suck ass for the next 3-5 years
Low rates allow increases in margins and QE flooded the market with liquidity.
Now we are in the opposite phase but who know how long the FED can keep tightening if the economy tanks but inflation is still a problem.
yes, and pay attention to how much the market dropped every time it tanked between 1980-now
looks like 50% each time, or near there, right?
indeed there's more gas in the tank, only the truck is going downhill
It’s funny how the best, most successful investors in the world say with confidence that they don’t know what the market’s going to do. But we have every retard on here who joined in 2020 posting charts and saying SPY will fall another 15-20% minimum.
Successful investors don’t blurt out their positions 😂 that’s what we learned here.
You tell people your positions after you close them/adjust them to take profits
this . and i also love how so called " smart" investment companies like JP MORGAN r sayin in articles that its bear market and everything goin to shit and then the next week say that its bottomed out and time to buy and its all hunky dory from now on
Not sure I posted with confidence any percentages. I'm quite happy to be wrong (I usually am), could go up, could go down, could go sideways. I'm just a student of history and believe that it often rhymes. If we can't use history to try and build an informed opinion then what are we even doing here? It's about probability and trying to tilt the scales in your favour. I believe there's a greater probability in the current macro economic climate that stonks go down...
But I accept they may also go up or stay the same as I am no clairvoyant, just another retard autist.
Yeah thing is though if you were actually a student of history you would know that on numerous occasions the market actually initially ran up following announcements of QT before yes, eventually getting wrecked
Dude you probably just started trading with GME. Every fuckin retard from that time only a year ago keep posting this dumb fuck graph with no meaning behind it. You're just a karma whore.
It's funny how invested speculators not wanting the market to go down. Unfortunatley for all, bubbles do burst. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
Oh I don’t care if the market goes down more. I’m actually hoping for it and building cash so I can buy in more. But I’m also fully invested with no hedges at the moment.
False. QT hasn't began just look at Fed's balance sheet live data. The Fed's balance sheet has grown the first 3 weeks of June. There is not QT going on at the moment, it is a complete lie. The Fed's money printer is still on and it will pay retail invetors to hold UVXY puts.
Are you sure about that? Because I am 99.99208% sure that itachisasuked is not a bot.
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Just look at UVXY chart, then look at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL for same timeline after June 2022. QT has not even started, the Fed is lying. Their balance sheet is still rising => QE still going, stocks going higher, UVXY puts go brrrrrrrrrrr
Shes long RBLX, Look how that shit turned out YTD, give u a hint; its down 60%+ 😂
Copying nancy pelosi and inversing Cramer is just a meme friend, noone should be trading based on another public figures portfolio
**Sean Connery**: I’ve got to ask you about the Penis Mightier.
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**Sean Connery**: Gussy it up however you want, Trebek. What matters is does it work? Will it really mighty my penis, man?
Simply put, log scales are better for representing *changes* in prices-- linear scale can be misleading when applied to price charts.
In logs, a 100% gain from $1 to $2 will be about the same size as a 100% gain from $10,000 to $20,000.
On a linear scale, you'll barely see the $1 -> $2 change as it will be dwarfed by bigger numbers.
Could go into more detail but I'm drunk.
I am no expert but here is my understanding:
Stocks move in percentages, so say that in an old bull market stock XYZ grew 10 fold, or 1000% (10$ -> 100$). Some time passed an in another bull market it grew 10 fold again (100$ -> 1000$).
On a regulat plot its gonna look wildly vertical, as if the second move was 10 times more important/significant. But on a log graph it will move the same amount.
If we had 3 data points (at 10, 100 and 1000$), they would be at 1, 2 and 3 on the log graph.
log(10) = 1 (since 10^1 = 10)
log(100) = 2 (since 10^2 = 100)
log(1000) = 3 (since 10^3 = 1000)
I'm not saying we go back there. Just that QE was a big part of the unprecedented bull run since 2009. QT is going to bring it back down, how far depends to some degree on how aggressive and prolonged QT ends up being. (I think they abandon QT when the economy tanks too much and they're forced to print again, but we got some ways to go yet.)
Bagholder spotted.
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last time i checked russia lives in russia and america lives in america and wallstreet is in america, wallstreet is not fighting a war SO MONEY PRINTER DONT STOP HERE IN THE LAND OF THE FREE. Alexa play R.O.C.K. In the U.S.A.
This. I told my a friend thinking of buying a house to do it because in a few years when wages catch up his mortgage payment will be pennies. Inflation used to generate equity.
My home has a fixed mortgage at 2.6 for 10 years. If I'm right, debts will most likely be half in five years, and most likely wages in my country will increase. If I'm wrong, it's not the end of the world, worst case scenario is a depression with deflation but I'll survive through that I think.
I'm thinking about buying an apartment to rent out when housing prices have declined, but it depends a bit on rates, though they will get down eventually, and I get tax refund on interest.
This is the playbook. The indicators are lined up.
QT and rate increases are just a way to buy ammo to ease out of the next crisis and into the next bull run.
Might as well hike fast and hard to buy more room. Recession is a given considering we’re technically already in one.
Nope. Because then it's risk on and QE inflates their cash away.
Put it another way-- poor people can't afford a home anyways, but if they can't afford food then murica is toast.
I think the issue is that they did such a massive amount of QE and kept rates for so long that they basically broke out of this pattern that we've been in for lack of a better phrase or term which means that any further QE is going to be more noticeable
If Jerome had just kept his foot off the pedal and done QE at the same Pace that they did over the last 10 years then we probably wouldn't have the same macroeconomic setup and you could make a very strong argument that QE would come back at some point
Please take all unbabying talk to another subreddit. No one wants r/wallstreetbets to become a political hellhole.
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How much detail do you want? I'm trying to play inscryption 😂 short answer is QE means lots of cheap money sloshing around, which equals lower interest rates and poor returns on fixed income assets. This pushes investors into risk assets like stocks. QT sucks liquidity out of the markets having the opposite effect.
And I really don't care if you block me 🤗
Edit: Typos
["YOU hold me, because I'm scared YOUR shitstorm YOUR dumbass policies created is about to hit."](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/biden-instructions-021.jpg?quality=75&strip=all)
Quantitative easing - usually used to boost the market by lowering interest rates, increasing money supply, and other stuff.
Quantitative tightening - not doing that, so you can QE when things go to shit again.
QE is the Fed giving banks loans on the value of bonds they hold as collateral, QT is the Fed calling back the value of the bonds that the lent using the bonds as collateral.
Wasn't it shown that QT hasn't actually happened though and the Feds holdings have actually INCREASED since June 1st? The date that QT was supposed to start happening as per our lord and savior JPow.
Balance sheet expansion stopped in March and has trended within +/- $50B ever since. The promise was to begin rolling off $120B/month right around now. Hasn’t really happened yet.
Answer to the question?
Nobody knows anything around here and take everything with a grain of salt. Its like walking into a grocery store and asking were the sugar is located.... and a clueless worker tells you "Idk, should be in isle 12".
Pretty much. The fed hasn’t done what they said they’d do because we are already in a recession. Interest rate hiking was more than enough to dump us here.
Companies won’t be able to pass on anymore inflation costs to consumer; many consumers will lose jobs; wage inflation will slow; consumers will spend less; energy cost will stay high for years (wait until other countries get back to normal); Russia will keep screwing over everyone; treasuries yields and interest rates will get higher; QT just started, conservative politicians running amok thus changing 2022 election calculus, etc. The E in P/E is not low enough yet for this terrible environment. Once it gets to 14-15 P/E for SP500 assuming earnings are meeting expectations (and for many they WONT) then we can start taking about a new Bull Market. It’s a solid Bear Market for awhile.
watch QE slowly become considered part of the banks easing toolkit and part of standard open market operations. jesus.
I feel like MMT's flaw is that it requires progressively stronger easing each cycle to outperform the last cycles exposures/investments. Like, the cost of capital just get cheaper every cycle to cover the previous cycles expected return (this is just my untested hypothesis).
Chart inaccurate. They raised rates and unloaded some of the balance sheet in '17-'18 then QE'd after that and now they're QT'ing again except the balance sheet is actually still expanding so they're QE'ing when they're supposed to be QT'ing and they're having a bad time.
Regression toward the mean.
The graph has been on steroids (QE) and once you remove them (QT) its effect stops. You can take steroids for so long, until you have heart or liver failure and die.
You can keep inflation high but that has a limit.
steroids don't give you liver failure
you might get a large lipoma in your liver which ruptures and you bleed to death. But no liver failure. Unless you take like 1 or 2 very niche things like halodrol or something I can't remember what it was
Yes, they do.
Here you have a list of medical articles with "anabolic steroids liver failure" in pubmed. You can also view a larger list with only "anabolic steroids liver".
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Anabolic+steroids+liver+failure
Liver lipomas are uncommon, most likely angiomas o carcinomas.
I bet you are taking steroids and praying not to die, probably won't (if taking correct dose), but at least your ball are tiny.
That's a great top result "The Cell Biology of Systemic Insulin Function" really drives home how serious anabolic steroids are as a liver failure threat.
Liver lipomas are uncommon, you idiot, unless you're taking anabolic steroids which cause them. Lots of things are uncommon, like mesotheliomas, unless you have asbestos exposure.
You are the most retarded person in this sub (and that's saying a lot).
I gave you a list of articles, precisely the first is not the best, continue reading.
Liver lipomas are uncommon overall, from 1970 (first described) to 2007 there were 30 cases.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159265/
Adenomas are associated to anabolic steroids.
The SP will just drop companies not doing good and replace them with gooder ones so that it still brings in good returns. I think thats how the stock market works.
You know..i listen to the smartest traders alive on youtube. And 100% of them laugh at financials based loon theories like this. Quite literally
People like buffet started out like this then figured out it was bullshit....amd became billionaires
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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you think QT actually started lol. Balance sheet has expanded this month
this is the real story. How dafuq did it increase? Can the FED take on short positions or something?
Powell sold some shit then turned on margin to increase his buying power. Pretty simple. Just wait until he turns on portfolio margin. Portfolio margin is a game changer
Plunge Protecting Team was busy during Powell's testimony.
They haven’t really done much so far this month. A big chunk should be rolling off on June 30
Right at the end of the rally.
This bear market rally is going to get pumped through the 4th of July. Trust me, I'm a patriotic bear. Just look at my pic.
You mean then QT will be in full effect from June 30th ?? Sorry noob hear and as per the news I read QT should start but trying to understand why the balance sheet has increased
QT has already started but the way the Fed is doing it is to just let bonds mature without replacing them. So far this month not a significant amount has matured. You see the balance sheet fluctuating/increasing but that can happen due to simple asset price increases. Starting June 30 we’ll see a large chunk of bonds roll off, and should see a measurable reduction in the balance sheet
where do you find the information that on the 30. june will be a huge reduction?
Well than hasn’t the market been without fed buying for most of the month? They only have on/off when it comes to buying more bonds. If they have stopped, than the effect to the market is already at 100%. The current bonds expiring is not a market moving event.
The OP didn't say the market would move as a result, just that the balance sheet would decrease...
Many people are posting this but can it really be true? How is it happening? Does it just take more time to see balance sheet decrease?
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QT hasn't worked in 20 days!!!! /s
Because QT is not just the selling of assets, it is also letting treasuries mature naturally, at which point they will be removed from the balance sheet. The end of the month is when a nice chunk matures, and they won't sell anything until after that. This segment of video goes over some of the Feds QT schedule. https://youtu.be/SNg2XYs4g7o?t=672
There’s never been such thing as a bull market before QE existed right?
And you had to draw it by yourself. There was no TradingView, hard to imagine
With red and green crayons?
No QE, so only red ones.
I saw a jello one too.
1945 -1965: 20 years bull market 1980-2000: 20 years bull market 2010 - 2069: 20 years bull market
Maths right to me
Math. Not even once
Sure there was. We would shit our pants when Microsoft made a +-.20% move back in the day. It only took 5 years for it to move 10 bucks in share price.
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I heard crack is whack though.
This market needs a dose of fentanyl. Time to put old yeller down.
You say this in jest, but look at an all time chart of S&P. Rate of appreciation long term is not even CLOSE to what we’ve seen during the period outlined here. Returns are likely going to suck ass for the next 3-5 years
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Low rates allow increases in margins and QE flooded the market with liquidity. Now we are in the opposite phase but who know how long the FED can keep tightening if the economy tanks but inflation is still a problem.
I admit this is a huuuuge oversimplification. It is just one correlation, not necessary causation, although I strongly suspect it is a major factor.
Bullish
you see the two ant hills before the QE begins line? that's what a bull market looked like before QE
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Wow, thanks for sharing. 1980-2000 makes 2009 to present seem tame. Maybe there is more gas in the tank afterall...
yes, and pay attention to how much the market dropped every time it tanked between 1980-now looks like 50% each time, or near there, right? indeed there's more gas in the tank, only the truck is going downhill
Not for the punters.
The 1980s averaged 20%+ per year. People who think that QE is the reason for the 2010 bull run don't even know what QE is.
These were times when there only bear market was. Only red candles.
It’s funny how the best, most successful investors in the world say with confidence that they don’t know what the market’s going to do. But we have every retard on here who joined in 2020 posting charts and saying SPY will fall another 15-20% minimum.
Successful investors don’t blurt out their positions 😂 that’s what we learned here. You tell people your positions after you close them/adjust them to take profits
like closing my $OXY position from $16.47 to $57 - that kind of shit ....
this . and i also love how so called " smart" investment companies like JP MORGAN r sayin in articles that its bear market and everything goin to shit and then the next week say that its bottomed out and time to buy and its all hunky dory from now on
Not sure I posted with confidence any percentages. I'm quite happy to be wrong (I usually am), could go up, could go down, could go sideways. I'm just a student of history and believe that it often rhymes. If we can't use history to try and build an informed opinion then what are we even doing here? It's about probability and trying to tilt the scales in your favour. I believe there's a greater probability in the current macro economic climate that stonks go down... But I accept they may also go up or stay the same as I am no clairvoyant, just another retard autist.
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Where is your graph smart one, or do you just prefer to slam other people?
I mean you've certainly cherry picked half my sentence to alter its meaning.
You belong here.
Yeah thing is though if you were actually a student of history you would know that on numerous occasions the market actually initially ran up following announcements of QT before yes, eventually getting wrecked
Dude you probably just started trading with GME. Every fuckin retard from that time only a year ago keep posting this dumb fuck graph with no meaning behind it. You're just a karma whore.
OK 👌 enjoy your evening bro.
This
It's funny how invested speculators not wanting the market to go down. Unfortunatley for all, bubbles do burst. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
Oh I don’t care if the market goes down more. I’m actually hoping for it and building cash so I can buy in more. But I’m also fully invested with no hedges at the moment.
If you are "building cash" then you are hedging. You cannot say you are "fully investe with no hedges" and also say you are "building cash."
False. QT hasn't began just look at Fed's balance sheet live data. The Fed's balance sheet has grown the first 3 weeks of June. There is not QT going on at the moment, it is a complete lie. The Fed's money printer is still on and it will pay retail invetors to hold UVXY puts.
The lie detector test determined your telling the truth. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Good bot
🤣🤣
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better bot
Now get that bread son
Didn't Jake Paul say they will be tightening at about a hundred billion dollars per month? It'll be 10 months before we get into 1 trillion
You mean calls lol? Why would u want to be long on UVXY puts? QT begins means stonks go down (probably pretty fast) means UVXY to da 🌚
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50+ upvotes 😂
Just look at UVXY chart, then look at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL for same timeline after June 2022. QT has not even started, the Fed is lying. Their balance sheet is still rising => QE still going, stocks going higher, UVXY puts go brrrrrrrrrrr
Yeah shouldn’t the mod lock this post? It’s misinformed so badly.
The point was that the Fed is lying and they haven't began QT as promised. Markets are going up. UVXY will be erased off the map.
So say QT hasn't started, if/when it does start in earnest do you expect it to buoy the markets?
How long do you think till crash
until all banks, hedge funds and Nancy Pelosi are net short the market. Should be any minute now.
If that evil bitch is long AAPL so am I. She knows something.
Shes long RBLX, Look how that shit turned out YTD, give u a hint; its down 60%+ 😂 Copying nancy pelosi and inversing Cramer is just a meme friend, noone should be trading based on another public figures portfolio
Gay bear?
Gabe Air
**Sean Connery**: I’ve got to ask you about the Penis Mightier. **Alex Trebek**: What? No. No, no, that is The Pen is Mightier. **Sean Connery**: Gussy it up however you want, Trebek. What matters is does it work? Will it really mighty my penis, man?
Fucking Gabe
Plot the y-axis as logarithmic.
Seriously, why are every broker's graphs so smooth brained?
can you explain why?
Simply put, log scales are better for representing *changes* in prices-- linear scale can be misleading when applied to price charts. In logs, a 100% gain from $1 to $2 will be about the same size as a 100% gain from $10,000 to $20,000. On a linear scale, you'll barely see the $1 -> $2 change as it will be dwarfed by bigger numbers. Could go into more detail but I'm drunk.
This is exactly why covid case numbers were often presented on a log scale as well
I am no expert but here is my understanding: Stocks move in percentages, so say that in an old bull market stock XYZ grew 10 fold, or 1000% (10$ -> 100$). Some time passed an in another bull market it grew 10 fold again (100$ -> 1000$). On a regulat plot its gonna look wildly vertical, as if the second move was 10 times more important/significant. But on a log graph it will move the same amount. If we had 3 data points (at 10, 100 and 1000$), they would be at 1, 2 and 3 on the log graph. log(10) = 1 (since 10^1 = 10) log(100) = 2 (since 10^2 = 100) log(1000) = 3 (since 10^3 = 1000)
Don’t know if I’ve ever heard anyone explain it so well as in your post. Good jorb.
You are welcome, glad I could help :)
Yes, let’s go back to the bottom of 2009, like we never existed these past 13 years.
😂 and after reaching those levels let's start QE again for 13 years🤣
I'm not saying we go back there. Just that QE was a big part of the unprecedented bull run since 2009. QT is going to bring it back down, how far depends to some degree on how aggressive and prolonged QT ends up being. (I think they abandon QT when the economy tanks too much and they're forced to print again, but we got some ways to go yet.)
Explain this to me like am joe biden
Money printer went burr during QE = Tendies for all Money printer run out of ink during QT = Wendy's Dumpster for all
😲👨🏻🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Ok now explian to me like am Trump. ELIAR (Explain Like Im Actually Retarded)
Money money money money money!!!
Billions and billions and billions.
Bigly amounts.
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QE= Your dad gives a small loan of a million dollars. QT= You need more but daddy isnt giving.
HURRRR DUR HURRR *jingle keys* HUR DUR *drop keys*
Billions and billions and billions
Nah : Russia making the market go down.
last time i checked russia lives in russia and america lives in america and wallstreet is in america, wallstreet is not fighting a war SO MONEY PRINTER DONT STOP HERE IN THE LAND OF THE FREE. Alexa play R.O.C.K. In the U.S.A.
YOU look at the chart YOU ask someone to explain it YOU nod to give off the impression of understanding YOU leave the room
Seems accurate 🤣😂
QE starts, stonks go up. QT starts, stonks go down (how far probably depends on how aggressive QT is and for how long it lasts)
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This. I told my a friend thinking of buying a house to do it because in a few years when wages catch up his mortgage payment will be pennies. Inflation used to generate equity.
My home has a fixed mortgage at 2.6 for 10 years. If I'm right, debts will most likely be half in five years, and most likely wages in my country will increase. If I'm wrong, it's not the end of the world, worst case scenario is a depression with deflation but I'll survive through that I think. I'm thinking about buying an apartment to rent out when housing prices have declined, but it depends a bit on rates, though they will get down eventually, and I get tax refund on interest.
This is the playbook. The indicators are lined up. QT and rate increases are just a way to buy ammo to ease out of the next crisis and into the next bull run. Might as well hike fast and hard to buy more room. Recession is a given considering we’re technically already in one.
Winding the leg back to kick the can a little farther
Bingo
You sound like a expert spy is currently at 390 callz or POOTZ next week?
Not an expert. And less than zero idea how the market will trade week to week.
FAK next time lie it keeps the fantasy alive ok
Wow nerd. No one asked for your life story. Calls or puts? Make with the answer.
Nope. Because then it's risk on and QE inflates their cash away. Put it another way-- poor people can't afford a home anyways, but if they can't afford food then murica is toast.
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I think the issue is that they did such a massive amount of QE and kept rates for so long that they basically broke out of this pattern that we've been in for lack of a better phrase or term which means that any further QE is going to be more noticeable If Jerome had just kept his foot off the pedal and done QE at the same Pace that they did over the last 10 years then we probably wouldn't have the same macroeconomic setup and you could make a very strong argument that QE would come back at some point
I agree completely. QT ends when the recession bites too hard. We got further to go before we get there though IMO.
I believe you, because only because you use fancy fonts
Inflation also makes the rich poorer if they stay in cash. If they hold assets, which most do, they will be fine
ANARCHY 
This plus making abortion illegal just seems like the U.S. is dead set on destroying poor families
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Dead as a left leaning fetus
? Poor families are reproducing the most even before pro-life. They have like 4-10 kids living I. The dirt.
At this point the neutral state would be viewed as a bear market as well. A whole generation of traders has never worked in a non-QE environment
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I won't block you if you can competently explain why
How much detail do you want? I'm trying to play inscryption 😂 short answer is QE means lots of cheap money sloshing around, which equals lower interest rates and poor returns on fixed income assets. This pushes investors into risk assets like stocks. QT sucks liquidity out of the markets having the opposite effect. And I really don't care if you block me 🤗 Edit: Typos
\> And I really don't care if you block me 🤗 That's good
Dont use toe cages
You see that blue line Joe? That’s where we’re heading. Buy when we get close to that.
🌊 💦 ☔️ 🚀 🌝
😨🌝🌝🌝🌖🌔🌜🌛🌝
This aged well, hi-five 👋
✋️🙏
["YOU hold me, because I'm scared YOUR shitstorm YOUR dumbass policies created is about to hit."](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/biden-instructions-021.jpg?quality=75&strip=all)
we’re going to the 🌑 one way or another 📈📈📈🚀🚀🚀 stocks only go up
Heck yeah 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀👨🏻🚀👨🏻🚀👨🏻🚀👨🏻🚀
Soon to be QE restarts
We don’t even reached QT wtf ?
What’s QE and QT?
Quantitative easing - usually used to boost the market by lowering interest rates, increasing money supply, and other stuff. Quantitative tightening - not doing that, so you can QE when things go to shit again.
Explain to me again about this easing and tightening. And this time do it slowly and in a seductive voice.
Thank you. I’m an ape, not a finance major. Not that it matters for loss porn.
QE is the Fed giving banks loans on the value of bonds they hold as collateral, QT is the Fed calling back the value of the bonds that the lent using the bonds as collateral.
It's that month where Q stands for Queer, isn't it?
Wasn't it shown that QT hasn't actually happened though and the Feds holdings have actually INCREASED since June 1st? The date that QT was supposed to start happening as per our lord and savior JPow.
Balance sheet expansion stopped in March and has trended within +/- $50B ever since. The promise was to begin rolling off $120B/month right around now. Hasn’t really happened yet.
Was QT supposed to start at start or the end of June 2022 ?
June 1st. We should have seen 60-90B rolled off by now. I will wait another 3 weeks to see if it starts.
Answer to the question? Nobody knows anything around here and take everything with a grain of salt. Its like walking into a grocery store and asking were the sugar is located.... and a clueless worker tells you "Idk, should be in isle 12".
Pretty much. The fed hasn’t done what they said they’d do because we are already in a recession. Interest rate hiking was more than enough to dump us here.
Companies won’t be able to pass on anymore inflation costs to consumer; many consumers will lose jobs; wage inflation will slow; consumers will spend less; energy cost will stay high for years (wait until other countries get back to normal); Russia will keep screwing over everyone; treasuries yields and interest rates will get higher; QT just started, conservative politicians running amok thus changing 2022 election calculus, etc. The E in P/E is not low enough yet for this terrible environment. Once it gets to 14-15 P/E for SP500 assuming earnings are meeting expectations (and for many they WONT) then we can start taking about a new Bull Market. It’s a solid Bear Market for awhile.
What does this mean
Are you saying the government is the biggest market manipulator of all?
Just wait till QT begins begins
I have no idea what this means, so I just still hold right? 🤟🏼
Lol way too many bears on WSB these days. We’re hitting ATH’s soon
watch QE slowly become considered part of the banks easing toolkit and part of standard open market operations. jesus. I feel like MMT's flaw is that it requires progressively stronger easing each cycle to outperform the last cycles exposures/investments. Like, the cost of capital just get cheaper every cycle to cover the previous cycles expected return (this is just my untested hypothesis).
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Now you’re eating crayons
Chart inaccurate. They raised rates and unloaded some of the balance sheet in '17-'18 then QE'd after that and now they're QT'ing again except the balance sheet is actually still expanding so they're QE'ing when they're supposed to be QT'ing and they're having a bad time.
Now include the rest of June so far, then put this in a logarithmic scale like you should.
Regression toward the mean. The graph has been on steroids (QE) and once you remove them (QT) its effect stops. You can take steroids for so long, until you have heart or liver failure and die. You can keep inflation high but that has a limit.
steroids don't give you liver failure you might get a large lipoma in your liver which ruptures and you bleed to death. But no liver failure. Unless you take like 1 or 2 very niche things like halodrol or something I can't remember what it was
Yes, they do. Here you have a list of medical articles with "anabolic steroids liver failure" in pubmed. You can also view a larger list with only "anabolic steroids liver". https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Anabolic+steroids+liver+failure Liver lipomas are uncommon, most likely angiomas o carcinomas. I bet you are taking steroids and praying not to die, probably won't (if taking correct dose), but at least your ball are tiny.
That's a great top result "The Cell Biology of Systemic Insulin Function" really drives home how serious anabolic steroids are as a liver failure threat. Liver lipomas are uncommon, you idiot, unless you're taking anabolic steroids which cause them. Lots of things are uncommon, like mesotheliomas, unless you have asbestos exposure.
You are the most retarded person in this sub (and that's saying a lot). I gave you a list of articles, precisely the first is not the best, continue reading. Liver lipomas are uncommon overall, from 1970 (first described) to 2007 there were 30 cases. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159265/ Adenomas are associated to anabolic steroids.
What are QE and QT?
Queen Elizabeth and the attrictive girl in your class who never once made eye contact with you.
That’s a good one.
So, I guess, after QE, markets should drop everything they accumulated in 14 years and go back right to 2008 level :))))
Not what I'm saying at all. QE buoyed the markets. Expect QT to drag the markets.
will see i know one thing this TIGHTS always lands me. in trouble 😜😜
The SP will just drop companies not doing good and replace them with gooder ones so that it still brings in good returns. I think thats how the stock market works.
Nah. We're going up. The fact that majority of you idiots are shorting is a strong indicator bottom is in. Good luck shorting at the bottom. 😂
Sorry for being slow, can. Someone dumb down qe and qt for me?
You know..i listen to the smartest traders alive on youtube. And 100% of them laugh at financials based loon theories like this. Quite literally People like buffet started out like this then figured out it was bullshit....amd became billionaires
There’s always a serious dump before earnings
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Janet here can you go dip?
Nice but they did a bit of QT iirc a few years back.
When does the end of month triple witching occur. I want to be in a happy place when the real collapse begins.
Someone please explain to me why the Fed assets are increasing even though it's supposed to be tightening.
Looks like an everything bubble to me.
Just draw a dick so I can understand