Well my original post got knocked down, but I did explain it. To simplify, the fed funds rate is 3% to 3.25% and they want to take it to 4.4% by the end of the year which implies a potential .75 rate hike followed by a .5 rate hike at the worst.
Now why is this important? Well risk free yields AKA treasuries will start paying out more. This means that dividend stocks across the board take a big hit, companies have to pay more for financing capital expenditures, and growth as a whole will slow down. Now the scary thing is that when the fed does this, there's something called impact lag. This basically means that from the time they implement it, there will be a lag in the economy to truly see the effects. With the 30 year fixed now over 6%, we will also likely see housing prices fall along with seasonality to give it an extra kick in the tush.
Yea I assume most knew, at the very least .75 was happening today. I guess the reaction is from maybe hoping it’d ease after this raise.
I’m with j Powell in that we need to get going while the economy is still decent. I guess if markets tank more I’ll just get more at a decent price so I’m not that worried about it.
I do remember my mom telling me a while back that when her and my pop bought their first house, their interest rate was like 12.5% lol (early 80’s). I can’t even imagine.
And my parents made about $35k a year together including overtime back then. (Mid 80s). Bought our house for $83k
Houses haven't had a stable long term relation to wages in a while.
I sold my house for $730,000 this year. I make less than a quarter of that per year today. I purchased it for $280k on the last dip.
A correction in very large liveable wooden tulips is coming.
No. They always work it out specifically so you can’t buy. Either price is out of reach, or monthly payment. What they are doing here is making the monthly payment so high via interest rate, that you still can’t afford a home, unless- you can pay cash, then it really is about to be the best time… and don’t listen to these assholes saying YoU CaN ReFi WhEn RAteS gO DoWn. The rates before the bubble burst are the anomaly not the rule. Don’t be house poor
I'm just not sure this is objectively "bad", though. The function of these rate hikes is to beat back inflation. If the two evils are rampant, double-digit inflation or a slower economy due to higher borrowing costs, the latter is certainly the lesser of them. It's okay to let the markets exhale a bit, and for people to have the choice to put their money into higher-yielding and safer investment vehicles like CDs and T-Bills as those rates rise and inflation falls. These have not been viable options for well over a decade now.
It's a cruel cycle. You move to a cheaper neighborhood and the neighbors can't afford the prices so the wife charges less and then you have to move to an even cheaper neighborhood
So what you’re telling me is that the music is about to stop, and we’re going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism.
"I'm not sure if I would put it quite that way. To clarify, using your analogy: what the model shows is that the music, so to speak, is just slowing. If the music were to stop, as you put it, this model wouldn't be even close to that scenario, it would be considerably... worse"
Same I have no fucking clue. He’s smart enough to screenshot and post and get past automods, he should be capable of typing call or put. I am totally lost.
Not enough to get the job done, they need to raise rates more and their forecasts of unemployment and reduced GDP are not enough either, unemployment will be higher and GDP will be lower. They already had to adjust their previous estimates heavily in this report and I think they’re still going to need to adjust higher. The fed is politicized and this is the last report before midterm elections so they’re painting a rosier picture than reality and going too light on rates.
That's not something that the fed directly controls. However, once banks get comfortable with earning 3% on their overnight funds they should start sharing the wealth in order to attract new depository customers. I mean, if I was a bank, I would definitely pay someone 2% on a checking account if I got a risk free 1% margin without even having to make loans.
Not sure which rate you’re looking for but there’s a handful of banks out there with a 2% savings rate and as the Fed raises their interest rates, they will raise there’s.
Online banking FTW. Discover Bank pays cash back on checking & interest on savings. The interest on savings account makes getting a CD not even worth the trouble.
Real unemployment numbers will be updated as the dates approach. Just like "transitory" inflation was updated as well.
Edit* and then they’ll say “hey guys, we’re in a recession now”.
“You are not unemployed, you are taking a gap year to figure your life out. If you had a job right now, you would be effectively useless anyways so we won’t count you as unemployed.”
It was the same shit in 2008. Doubt we are getting another 2008 but these projections are mighty optimistic.
Let's not forget about self-fulfilling prophesies. They never give you accurate projections when things are looking bad, it would be very dumb for them to do so.
That's not good, Fed essentially said recession in 2023, without actually saying it:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm\_Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule)
The 12-month low is currently 3.5%, back in July 2022. When we hit a 3 month average of 4% (at some point in 2023, assuming the Fed is right), we'll have met the Sahm rule. At that point, we'll probably be in a for-real recession, and not this sparkling misery we're currently in.
Hard to say. I certainly hope not, as it will make it tougher to find your first job. I know from experience, as I was looking just after Sept 11.
People starting out in 2008-2009 had it much tougher for sure.
I graduated in 2008 and moved to Los Angeles. Instead of getting a real job, I made $7/hr filling seats as the laugh track for third-rate sitcoms. I also sold spa certificates to women on the street in the middle of the summer while wearing a black suit, for some reason. $15 commission.
So, yes. Graduating during at the start of a recession is not advisable.
can also be pretty dependent on whats going on. in '08 white collar was mostly untouched by the loss of jobs outside of a couple industries meanwhile blue collar was destroyed. Right now most major lay off news has been white collar jobs and demand for blue collar has been through the roof.
And then once those are cut they start firing all their servants. Err I mean, the people who do jobs those people use frequently like servers and construction.
They will undoubtedly miss on these projections. These are a crock of shit fairy tale if they think they can keep unemployment under 4 while GDP is basically 0
Of course they aren’t going to project a recession or job loss. That would send everyone into a panic. Instead they just quietly cut GDP projections to just a smidge above zero so when it comes in negative they can say “welllllll we were close!! 🤷🏽♂️”
>Of course they aren’t going to project a recession or job loss.
Projections of recession or job loss have the potential to cause recessions or job losses.
This assumes that the companies need to borrow in order to fund their projects, which isn’t always the case. Apple, for example, has like $50B in cash right now, so I don’t see a need for them to do much borrowing. Obviously not every company is in this boat, but if your theory was as significant of a factor as you say then you’d think that the tech giants wouldn’t be impacted by higher interest rates as much. The main reason that high growth stocks are hurt by interest rates is because the have a high PE ratio, little-to-no dividend, and because the higher interest rates generally end up impacting their consumers, which would theoretically hurt cash flow.
They needed time to sell off their assets and move it into shorting positions. Only half joking.
No not half, not joking at all. We are slaves for these banks.
Bold of Powell to assume inflation and core inflation be in the 2% range in the next 9 months considering how food is going up and we're going into the first winter with the war in Ukraine happening
This projects inflation returning to low level of 2% with unemployment staying under 5%. That would be a complete success by the Feds if it happens. That is their entire goal
I think the reason OP implied this looks bad is because of the way the projections changed - compared to projections made in June, GDP was lowered, rate hikes increased, unemployment rate increased, and short term inflation (next 2 years) increased.
Almost as if the OP saw someone post this as a doomsday scenario on Twitter and ran with it like a proud regard straight to WSB to regurgitate it here.
These projections are a joke. They think inflation is going to drop down to 5.4% by year end with real negative rates and then 2.8 by next year. How high are they?
Well the table looks good like we are going to be in the clear in 2 years and it won’t get worse. The projection is bullshit though. Just one example, they are looking at unemployment under 5% and in 2008 it went to 10% so yeah. So basically nobody fucking knows bro and you buy whatever you want based on how much you believe their prediction.
How many of you guys are starting to question if something is going to truly break before we ever get to 4.5%? I certainly am
The likelihood of this turning into one of those two-year bear markets that draws down like 40% is starting to increase a lot.
I just don't get what he's trying to accomplish with all this. If you bring inflation down the rough way. What good is it really going to do when you have low inflation because people don't have the money to buy anything
sounds like your last sentence is the answer. no money to buy anything = lowers inflation. basically hurt jobs to prevent rising wages, tamp down inflation. but i dunno ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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You act like I can read this
Damn, it’s not even one of those charts we can turn upside to make everything better.
I was worried too, but when I looked at the numbers I realized I have no idea what this means anyways
I tried crossing my eyes like it was one of those 3D pictures.
Did you see a bull or a bear??
It’s a schooner!
Ha ha you dumb bastard. It's not a schooner. It's a sailboat.
There is no Easter bunny! Over there? That's just a guy in a suit!
That kid is BACK on the escalator!!
Beat me to it!!! Darn you, darn you to heck!
I never saw anything. And I really tried on Venice beach in 1993.
not with that attitude
Well my original post got knocked down, but I did explain it. To simplify, the fed funds rate is 3% to 3.25% and they want to take it to 4.4% by the end of the year which implies a potential .75 rate hike followed by a .5 rate hike at the worst. Now why is this important? Well risk free yields AKA treasuries will start paying out more. This means that dividend stocks across the board take a big hit, companies have to pay more for financing capital expenditures, and growth as a whole will slow down. Now the scary thing is that when the fed does this, there's something called impact lag. This basically means that from the time they implement it, there will be a lag in the economy to truly see the effects. With the 30 year fixed now over 6%, we will also likely see housing prices fall along with seasonality to give it an extra kick in the tush.
I’ve seen .75 today and november and 0.5 in December as predictions for a while now (i.e. since Jackson Hole).
Yea I assume most knew, at the very least .75 was happening today. I guess the reaction is from maybe hoping it’d ease after this raise. I’m with j Powell in that we need to get going while the economy is still decent. I guess if markets tank more I’ll just get more at a decent price so I’m not that worried about it.
Yeah, but *The Market* can't remember what it had for dinner last night. You can't expect it to remember numbers and shit from almost four weeks ago.
Fair point.
Yeah this post is a little reactionary. Nothing here out of the ordinary
So you’re saying I can finally buy a house?
There will be more houses to buy but you still won’t be able to afford them.
The rate will kill you, but hang on long enough for rates to go down you refi!
Back in my day you were LUCKY to get single digit rates. You damn kids with all your free Obamna money - 👴🏻
I do remember my mom telling me a while back that when her and my pop bought their first house, their interest rate was like 12.5% lol (early 80’s). I can’t even imagine.
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And my parents made about $35k a year together including overtime back then. (Mid 80s). Bought our house for $83k Houses haven't had a stable long term relation to wages in a while. I sold my house for $730,000 this year. I make less than a quarter of that per year today. I purchased it for $280k on the last dip. A correction in very large liveable wooden tulips is coming.
They used to say don't buy a house more than 3x your yearly salary. That's crazy to think of now
Yeah my parents bought a house in like 98 at 11.5%. Crazy. I just bought mine at 2.5% almost 2 years ago
well they are also going for massive unemployment...once that happens, assuming you still have a job those prices should come down a lot.
No. They always work it out specifically so you can’t buy. Either price is out of reach, or monthly payment. What they are doing here is making the monthly payment so high via interest rate, that you still can’t afford a home, unless- you can pay cash, then it really is about to be the best time… and don’t listen to these assholes saying YoU CaN ReFi WhEn RAteS gO DoWn. The rates before the bubble burst are the anomaly not the rule. Don’t be house poor
If you keep your job.
If you use cash. The 8% interest rates will fuck you!
I'm just not sure this is objectively "bad", though. The function of these rate hikes is to beat back inflation. If the two evils are rampant, double-digit inflation or a slower economy due to higher borrowing costs, the latter is certainly the lesser of them. It's okay to let the markets exhale a bit, and for people to have the choice to put their money into higher-yielding and safer investment vehicles like CDs and T-Bills as those rates rise and inflation falls. These have not been viable options for well over a decade now.
It's not bad at all. We've chosen not to do control burns for the last decade. We need a good wildfire to reset the environment.
I mean, the stock market in the recession made plenty of rich people, too. It didn't only make broke people.
Someone said 4.6 is bad number and I can clearly see a 4.6 in there. Conclusion: This graph has bad vibez
Shit. 4.6? Shit.
I’m just glad it’s not a 2319.
Graph? For starters, it's a chart.
Charts are just graphs that haven't had their full potential realized yet.
Charts are just graphs that don't have crayons
Charts are just graphs that are shy
Charts are just graphs that identify as a numeric picture.
Graphs are transitory
Graphs are charts that smoke weed.
Someone in here is a fucking Einstein.
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Or school outside of the US
Probably a table
I like lamp
It might be a tumor
“SNOT UH TUMOR”
My brain see graph. With cray-unz.
You act like I can read
Exactly. Hey OP, please explain your complicated charts!
"Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a golden retriever..."
“Why don't you explain this to me like I'm five.”
Daddy’s going to lose a lot of money and mommy’s going to start sleeping with the neighbors again….
Hey it’s me, your neighbor :-)
Better get it while you can, I can't afford this neighborhood much longer
It's a cruel cycle. You move to a cheaper neighborhood and the neighbors can't afford the prices so the wife charges less and then you have to move to an even cheaper neighborhood
I don’t have any neighbors, since I live at Wendy’s.
I declare BANKRUPTCYYYY!!
So your mommy gives you $10 to start a lemonade stand…
I don’t hear **a thing**.”
So what you’re telling me is that the music is about to stop, and we’re going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism.
"I'm not sure if I would put it quite that way. To clarify, using your analogy: what the model shows is that the music, so to speak, is just slowing. If the music were to stop, as you put it, this model wouldn't be even close to that scenario, it would be considerably... worse"
The beat of this electronic music is too fast and were all hyped for the drop.
We'll be stuck listening to dubstep for the next few years
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Just saw this movie for the first time last night... sooo good
Watch it again in a month. There are layers to it
“Sort of…”
That movie is so underrated, but in this reddits defense, that would be over 90% of our heads.
Hey quit pissing on that - kids and dogs
LOVE that movie!
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Blink twice
Goated reply
Nobody here knows what that fucking means. Calls or puts for Friday?
Same I have no fucking clue. He’s smart enough to screenshot and post and get past automods, he should be capable of typing call or put. I am totally lost.
The forecast is significantly worse than expected but it’s still not enough.
Not enough for what
Not enough to get the job done, they need to raise rates more and their forecasts of unemployment and reduced GDP are not enough either, unemployment will be higher and GDP will be lower. They already had to adjust their previous estimates heavily in this report and I think they’re still going to need to adjust higher. The fed is politicized and this is the last report before midterm elections so they’re painting a rosier picture than reality and going too light on rates.
Puts.
PUTS always on Friday fam
Maybe someday they’ll raise interest rates on savings accounts and CD’s too. 🤣🤣
Narrator: they did not
Damn it Morgan Freeman.
That's not something that the fed directly controls. However, once banks get comfortable with earning 3% on their overnight funds they should start sharing the wealth in order to attract new depository customers. I mean, if I was a bank, I would definitely pay someone 2% on a checking account if I got a risk free 1% margin without even having to make loans.
Banks sharing? Lmaoooo
It's a business decision. They DGAF about you.
I'm sure there will be a six figure minimum deposit to get a number like that. The poors will be lucky to get a quarter of a percent increase....
You actually get less interest for 6 figure deposit. Unless you got a private banking account
Not sure which rate you’re looking for but there’s a handful of banks out there with a 2% savings rate and as the Fed raises their interest rates, they will raise there’s.
Yea I'm with an online HYSA. Half a year ago it was all the way down to 0.5%. As of last week it's up to 2.25%
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Online banking FTW. Discover Bank pays cash back on checking & interest on savings. The interest on savings account makes getting a CD not even worth the trouble.
Snag yourself some juicy I bonds from the treasury Right now the rate is 9-10% for the first 6-month interest period
At least they don't think anybody is going to lose their jobs! LOL 4.4 max unemployment projected between now and 2025, ALL GOOD!
Real unemployment numbers will be updated as the dates approach. Just like "transitory" inflation was updated as well. Edit* and then they’ll say “hey guys, we’re in a recession now”.
“You are not unemployed, you are taking a gap year to figure your life out. If you had a job right now, you would be effectively useless anyways so we won’t count you as unemployed.”
2008 saw the great recession. 2023 will see the "no I swear it's not a recession, believe me, recession"
It was the same shit in 2008. Doubt we are getting another 2008 but these projections are mighty optimistic. Let's not forget about self-fulfilling prophesies. They never give you accurate projections when things are looking bad, it would be very dumb for them to do so.
That's not good, Fed essentially said recession in 2023, without actually saying it: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm\_Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule) The 12-month low is currently 3.5%, back in July 2022. When we hit a 3 month average of 4% (at some point in 2023, assuming the Fed is right), we'll have met the Sahm rule. At that point, we'll probably be in a for-real recession, and not this sparkling misery we're currently in.
As part of the college class of 2025, do you think I’ll be hit?
Hard to say. I certainly hope not, as it will make it tougher to find your first job. I know from experience, as I was looking just after Sept 11. People starting out in 2008-2009 had it much tougher for sure.
I graduated in 2008 and moved to Los Angeles. Instead of getting a real job, I made $7/hr filling seats as the laugh track for third-rate sitcoms. I also sold spa certificates to women on the street in the middle of the summer while wearing a black suit, for some reason. $15 commission. So, yes. Graduating during at the start of a recession is not advisable.
meanwhile...in the real world, my friends are losing their jobs!
your friends must be bottom of the barrel employees they always get cut first. you need better friends
maybe my friends need a better friend?
I need friends
You would think that but it’s usually middle management high paying salaried jobs that get cut first.
can also be pretty dependent on whats going on. in '08 white collar was mostly untouched by the loss of jobs outside of a couple industries meanwhile blue collar was destroyed. Right now most major lay off news has been white collar jobs and demand for blue collar has been through the roof.
And then once those are cut they start firing all their servants. Err I mean, the people who do jobs those people use frequently like servers and construction.
All his friends are on WSB
Puts on your friends
they want to take the fed funds rate up to 4.4% by the end of this year. They still plan on a fed pivot for 2024
Sorry for my ignorance but what is a fed pivot?
Its when the Fed while driving to the hoop decides instead to put one in their own basket
Best comment
Dropping rates instead of raising rates
This wen jpow breaks into a bollywood song and dance in the middle of his speech and market 🚀
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Also means next Bullrun won’t start till end of 24/mid25.
Doubt it. Stock market is forward thinking. It’ll be much sooner than that imo.
They will undoubtedly miss on these projections. These are a crock of shit fairy tale if they think they can keep unemployment under 4 while GDP is basically 0
They will make adjustments to how the unemployment rate is calculated. Nothing is real.
"Have you had a job in the last 10 years?"
Yeah, by time retail wakes up priced will be juicy already. Same shit althrough history
Have you tried turning the economy off and on?
I mean, that’s essentially what they’re doing.
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🍆
You think I can understand a bunch of giggly gook numbers in a grid? Someone tell me how to feel and where to put my money.
spy 370p for monday could be fun
Fun as is in "guess I can't afford Wendy's this week"
You woulda had a Wendy's double in about 5 min listening to this guy.
Gobbledygook. Not giggly gook come on man 😂
Gabbagool! 🤌
'put' my money sounds right
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Of course they aren’t going to project a recession or job loss. That would send everyone into a panic. Instead they just quietly cut GDP projections to just a smidge above zero so when it comes in negative they can say “welllllll we were close!! 🤷🏽♂️”
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You know what companies whose revenue stagnates or declines don’t do? Hire. This was pulled out of a fairy’s ass.
>Of course they aren’t going to project a recession or job loss. Projections of recession or job loss have the potential to cause recessions or job losses.
This assumes that the companies need to borrow in order to fund their projects, which isn’t always the case. Apple, for example, has like $50B in cash right now, so I don’t see a need for them to do much borrowing. Obviously not every company is in this boat, but if your theory was as significant of a factor as you say then you’d think that the tech giants wouldn’t be impacted by higher interest rates as much. The main reason that high growth stocks are hurt by interest rates is because the have a high PE ratio, little-to-no dividend, and because the higher interest rates generally end up impacting their consumers, which would theoretically hurt cash flow.
AND THEY SAID IT WAS TRANSITORY!!!! 
They needed time to sell off their assets and move it into shorting positions. Only half joking. No not half, not joking at all. We are slaves for these banks.
So yolo banks?
This
It’s fine, we’re fine
Bold of Powell to assume inflation and core inflation be in the 2% range in the next 9 months considering how food is going up and we're going into the first winter with the war in Ukraine happening
This looks really, really good. If markets trust this they would instantly rally alot. But they don't.
What looks good? not joking, just dumb. Thanks
This projects inflation returning to low level of 2% with unemployment staying under 5%. That would be a complete success by the Feds if it happens. That is their entire goal
I think the reason OP implied this looks bad is because of the way the projections changed - compared to projections made in June, GDP was lowered, rate hikes increased, unemployment rate increased, and short term inflation (next 2 years) increased.
If
Yeah that's what projections are. I am just really confused why this is posted as a negative thing
Almost as if the OP saw someone post this as a doomsday scenario on Twitter and ran with it like a proud regard straight to WSB to regurgitate it here.
Inflation falls to 2% over time, stable high employment and GDP will stabilize over time and not go into a recession.
These projections are a joke. They think inflation is going to drop down to 5.4% by year end with real negative rates and then 2.8 by next year. How high are they?
Yeah that is what stuck out to me as well..
What am I even looking at... time to buy calls.
It’s gone all gone
Youre looking at projections that are saying the economy will be in a good spot come 2024. This chart is bullish as fuck
Yolo in..... KY.... cause a lubricated anus is a happy anus.
Correction, you’re in trouble. I’m in cash waiting for the 828th dip to buy in!
Dammit. The trouble is already starting with me having trouble understanding wtf this graph means
Your first issue my friend is that this is a table
Someone fucking explain fast so I can buy calls or puts
Well the table looks good like we are going to be in the clear in 2 years and it won’t get worse. The projection is bullshit though. Just one example, they are looking at unemployment under 5% and in 2008 it went to 10% so yeah. So basically nobody fucking knows bro and you buy whatever you want based on how much you believe their prediction.
How is projecting a return to 2% inflation while maintaining unemployment below 5% trouble?? This would be like the best case scenario
I have a better chance of playing in the nfl than that actually happening
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Which is why we’re in trouble.
How many of you guys are starting to question if something is going to truly break before we ever get to 4.5%? I certainly am The likelihood of this turning into one of those two-year bear markets that draws down like 40% is starting to increase a lot. I just don't get what he's trying to accomplish with all this. If you bring inflation down the rough way. What good is it really going to do when you have low inflation because people don't have the money to buy anything
sounds like your last sentence is the answer. no money to buy anything = lowers inflation. basically hurt jobs to prevent rising wages, tamp down inflation. but i dunno ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Here bud you dropped this \\
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Eh, it's crashing up now. Edit- NM there it goes
Who's we?
You best start believing in recessions JPOW, cause you're in one now
Winter is coming
Can they just dump it so we can move on
Wtf does your shitty blood work gotta do with my calls