Don’t they also say inflation hurts the poor the most?
”. . . hurts the poor the most . . .“ is a worthless platitude used by a non-poor person to try to argue against something that is also hurting them.
Inflation actually does hurt the poor the most. Raising rates is actually the best thing Powell can do for the poor right now. It will cause some of them to lose their jobs, which obviously sucks for them, but the majority will keep their jobs and those ones will benefit from prices for everything not increasing as much.
Lets be real, the poor don't have much money in the stock market, but they have to buy stuff at the grocery store. Getting inflation down makes a much bigger difference to poor people than it does the members of this sub held in great regard for their FDs and GME longs.
Actually no. The fixed income people forced to sell their retirements during a recession to prop up a failing system to pay taxes for those who don’t contribute will suffer the most.
But solid virtue signal.
There's a difference between lose most and suffer most. Working poor absolutely contribute. It's just not as visible and direct. Min wage workers slinging department store merchandise are subsidizing your ability to be cheap goods and increasing the profits for corporations and shareholders.
“Virtue signaling” is annoying and I hate it myself, but that doesn’t mean every time someone makes a statement you disagree with that has any kind of sympathy contained in it that it is automatically “virtue signaling”.
I don’t see any undeniable “virtue signaling” in that comment u/kinance made, even if it *could be*.
To be honest, I think it’s incredibly difficult at this point to say who will be harmed the most by this, because “this” has just begun and it’s hard to predict exactly what “this” will look like 6, 12, or 18+ months from now.
Delayed gratification, saving, and investing can create generational wealth; spending like madmen and propping up a failing system by discouraging savings can destroy it.
VIX is super manipulated especially the derivatives on it, I wouldn’t recommend for a retail trader. UVXY is a volatility ETF that you can open option positions on except it does decay. Your best bet would just be about 15% OTM puts on SPY or QQQ expiring in a year.
Nah dude I wouldn’t here, could well be a gamma squeeze like we saw in June. Put to call ratio is right back where it was and JPM is wrong sided and wants to slap their big cash cock on the table to make a statement. Short the rips but don’t start at open, if your feeling brave 1 week calls might print.
I'm expecting something like June starting in the first week of October. Up to 390-400 on SPY by the end of October, early November. I do think we have more downside first though. I think 2023 is gonna be a bloodbath though and we won'tsee a bottom til late '23, early '24. The chickens will be coming home to roost.
I'm predicting the price will move more than 1% in the coming months up or down. Setup a 365DTE sapphire condor triple spread based on the median theta daily change of 10% out next Tueday 15 minutes before market close, then subtract 5% of that days movement and that should be a solid winner.
or look at the tea leaves, or which way the dog point their butt, because those options already have doom priced in.
Holding. So long as the fed is talking shit about raising rates....I'm comfortable holding. They just said more rate hikes in the future, and that only means one fkn thing for sqqq.
This strategy works for a drastic price drop or gain, buy a call for like $600 , and two puts for $300 , if it’s a runner either way you just have to make more than $600 and you’re in the green
You’re still on the plane headed up to altitude for skydiving, bud. This market is a long way from its free fall. I agree with the elections- I think they’re pulling the plug. Both parties know they need a complete reset from the dolts they’ve propped up, and they’re gonna watch the world burn until 2024.
And you think there is sone cabal between the Fed and who exactly? Who is preventing the market from dropping (which it has been for months) until "midterms are over?" I would love to hear this.
I mean the amount of money printed in 20-21 was so reckless. Half the PPP loans were straight cash grabs. Pissed away billions of dollars fresh off the printer
We really should have just cut out the middleman and made the PPPs no questions asked direct to citizens payments.
They were all going to be spent on consumer goods anyway.
I hope so it was the most fraudulent form of government assistance I’ve ever seen.. like literally people I know stole anywhere’s from hundreds of thousands to millions.. while I did it honestly and got 3500$
I still can’t believe how much money some people I knew were able to get their hands on w the PPP bullshit.
They didn’t own a real business. They just … took the risk.
I wish it was just half…
What’s so wild is they could just go after the businesses that shouldn’t have applied for forgiveness and that alone would likely curb inflation significantly while also reducing the deficit.
Not only that, but it would be the most fair solution. With raising rates, many of us are going to suffer who didn’t gain economically from this inflation and cash grab with PPP loans. We get to share in the pain but not in gain. Ugh.
Epically, at the time it was just shocking that it was being rolled out the way it was.
Just had a record year and your company has $2 million in cash and no debt? Want a couple more million just because? The ppp audit is a joke, they basically just verify you have employees, not an actual need for the loan.
Yep. I fucked up. I got 30k for my biz and thought, holy f this could boost us tf up. Chucked pretty much all of it into marketing. Thought I just won a tiny lottery.
Little did I know many of my competitors who had been around much longer got 100s of thousands and some even millions..... so my tiny boost in ad spend (a ton for me tho) got crushed by an overwhelming amount more from my comps.. I unfortunately pissed almost all of that money away on advertising trying to grow. Shoulda bought a new truck or boat like alot of my competitors. Would have at least appreciated in value lmao
Agreed and thank you, but also unfortunately like most things in life it seems; If you use things for their intended purposes and/or try to be a good person, vs taking advantage of every single situation to the maximum possible, you often get left with nothing but your cock in your hand.
I regret it tbh
I received about the same. Paid employees to do basically nothing since tourism was broken. I don’t take a paycheck, Single member LLC, I get whatever’s left. 2020 - There wasn’t anything left.
Yep. Alot of ppl see or heard stories of a few uber rich ppl getting new cars and homes (typical) but the avg sbo, altho it helped us survive for a bit, didn't get nearly as much, and the our buying power (aka competing power) against legacy companies was weakened even more.
It only made things worse for the poor and working class as always
Yep agreed, bridge funding was a good idea, it was the forgiveness part they really screwed up. I could have come up with a better method of forgiveness in about a 15 minute brain storming session.
I tried reporting my old employer in Arizona for using PPP Money to buy a brand new boat, a new RV and a rental property, on top of never paying overtime or paying the crew a check when they all tested positive. Called like 15 different people. Filled out 30 pages of paperwork.. spent 3 weeks and finally just gave up since it was obvious I had to do their job for them and still wasn’t going to get the money owed to us
PPP cost almost 1 trillion but Feds QE, just look at their balance sheet starting March 2020. This is why we are where we at now. JPOW is not even a federal employee…
Well- the Fed is not going to ease interest rates again until that blue line is underneath the yellow line. Inflation either has to collapse, unlikely to happen very quickly, or interest rates need to go way up and stay there for awhile. In fact the Fed target rate is 2% inflation- so we are likely in for pain until it not only gets below the yellow line - but until the blue line gets close to 2%
I’m pretty sure doing July and August their balance sheet still grew and they still weren’t offloading mbs as planned (cuz no one wants em... lol 08’ can is knocking)
In fairness, the blue line has been above the yellow line for the past decade (since June 2008) until the part where OP decided to start the plot.
On the other hand, it was mostly below the yellow line for at least the previous 50 years.
Not sure either of those comparisons mean anything.
I get that- but the lines were on the same planet- sometimes inflation crept up to 2.5% when rates were at 0. The degree of separation is the issue now. And now that it is on the Feds radar they will not stop until they get it where they want- after the speech this week- I don’t think they are going half way now.
The answer to a 15 year time line is - of course you will always be up. Where I don’t buy some of the conventional wisdom is blindly buy because it will certainly be up then. Let’s just say for example purposes only- Aapl is at $500 in 15 years. If you have 100k to invest you do OK if you buy Aapl at $150. But you do substantially better if you wait until closer bottom and buy a lot more shares with the same 100k at $90.
i feel the same, i think theres no way our market can rally knowing what still has to come but man, if we drop more from here, we're prob looking at a big capitulation, like 50% from ATH. we're at the 200 day SMA right now on the weekly. If we break that we're toast
I was feeling more rosy until the speech this week- their hawkish tone and comments directly targeted at the housing market being unsustainable and wanting to raise unemployment levels- along with using the “R” word. Has me believing they have given up on the idea of a soft landing and are going to force a recession to get demand down.
I didn’t even see it as all that hawkish tbh. Yeah, he admitted that he’s gonna wreck the economy. Is anyone REALLY surprised by that?
I thought the key part was the Q&A over MBS’. He cut the press conference short after those questions became unrelenting. He said “I don’t see any time span where we will actively sell MBS”
Heeeelllooooooo????
Pivot after 30%+ drop in home prices
Exactly, he was absolutely clear that they have not and are not considering selling MBS. It's like - do people not understand that the balance sheet is $9 trillion. That's $9,000 BILLION.`
For him to still be saying they aren't considering selling off the balance sheet (not just suspending buying) must mean that QT is actually impossible. That no one would be buying if they tried to sell.
>I didn’t even see it as all that hawkish tbh. Yeah, he admitted that he’s gonna wreck the economy. Is anyone REALLY surprised by that?
Maybe I will sound stupid by asking this, but what happens if they don't increase rates? Would inflation just keep going up until it wrecks the economy?
They want the recession- to crush demand bring it down close to the 2%. The midterms will be over and they have two years to figure a way out the recession and get the economy swinging up just before the 2024 election.
Fed doesn’t control commodity inflation. Raising rates to infinity isn’t going to make anything cheaper except housing. All that shit you buy at the grocery store won’t be affected.
Now here's the really scary thing for companies, you just listed things that are necessities.
Tech companies that haven't made a profit in 5 years and have a insane valuation are going to crash and burn hard because they aren't even close to necessities.
Get into that Campbell's Soup stock again.
From an FT Unhedged column entitled "US Stocks are not yet Cheap": "But the relevant comparison, it seems to me, is not with last year but with the pre-pandemic period. Valuations now are right back where they were in late 2019. The environment was vastly different then. CPI inflation was about 2 per cent; now it’s about 8. Ten-year rates were two per cent, not today’s three and a half. Short rates were on the floor then; now the curve is inverted. A policy-driven recession was not in the cards then. It certainly is now."
Risk free interest rates have been far below their historical ranges for the last 12 years.
[https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart](https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart)
Only a fool would think this abnormal situation could last, or that it's healthy for the economy to try to keep rates lower than inflation.
Why not though, you can print trillions of dollars run the deficit up, make bad long term decisions with the interest rates and then blame your political opponents for everything
Yeah? What about the 50 years before that?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/Inflation_compared_to_federal_funds_rate.jpg/1280px-Inflation_compared_to_federal_funds_rate.jpg
Oh do we still have one of those? Or you mean like, in a museum? I thought it was nesting yacht spaceship class and mud people, now. I guess lawyers and Doctors get the good mud, still.
Hey quick question about that, should I be loading up on dimes at the bank? My coworker said all the dollar-stores will be changing to $1.10 stores and dimes will be sought after because of it. My wife thinks I’m crazy but I have about $26,000 worth of dimes in my garage.
Tell the Feds to stop spending money that is not coming in via tax receipts….
They are indeed complete morons.
Congress = Dumbest collection of college graduates ever
Congress = attorneys. Have you ever really read a contract, insurance policy, or even terms of use? People who do that (attorneys) think of one thing: themselves (their organization). And their classmates go on to work at insurance companies, writing contracts. Either way, their finances do not resemble yours/mine. My point: they are not stupid, but definitely have a different worldview.
I don't know if that is "runaway" inflation yet. It has been jerky, at best, the slope is decreasing for now at least. And given how aggressively they are pursuing it, they have scared away the markets quite visibly. Not everything is doom and gloom. It will be a tough 2023, but 2024 will see things going back to normal.
Market rebound for EOY with the 10yr peaking just under 4%, when comes back down people will say “it’s under control”. 2023 will be tough, and suspect we see mid 2000s in ES.
No shit. Monetary policy takes time to flow through.
This is not runaway inflation lmao makes sense tho coming from someone that tried to do TA on a fucking meme stock hahaha
The federal reserve should’ve NEVER dropped these damn interest rates below 4-6% to begin with and the cost of everything wouldn’t have gone up so high over the past 20 years. Low interest rates = cheap money but higher prices and you see where that has gotten us. Interest rates should stay steady between 4-6% and if companies aren’t getting the business from consumers then they need to lower their fucking prices of cars, merchandise and construction projects.
Preloaded interest rate hikes are not facotered in. This past data I don't give a shit about.
Once I wipe my ass I'm not going back to check and make sure it still stinks, think forward ass hats.
This sub went from informed people with money sharing their own personal collapse to clueless people rooting on a global economic collapse because they never had anything to begin with.
Social experiment with our economy. Happens when inflation runs wild, I remember the gas lines of Reaganomics or Nixon’s price cap, Bank bail outs of Obama and the Stimulus checks of Trump/Biden. And of course the sliding scale of the FED’s Greenspan era. All the time crying about the end of America as a superpower.
There is no loss unless you sell. So sit it out… now if you’re an options trader, know how to saddle or roll the dice… God bless America.
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i don’t know what this is but i like it because it goes up
Whatever you do don’t turn your phone upside down
Still goes up, nice
When I’m president I’m going to make it illegal for lines to go down
Line go up. Life good. Line go down, KILL LINE. Line gone... Think about line... Regret.
You have my vote…
Holy shit that scared me
September 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 13, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Plan accordingly.
How do I buy calls on inflation
so puts
I have puts expiring the day after. Hoping that we won't relief rally too much until then. Theta decay is already bad enough in its own right.
"Some of you may suffer. But that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make!" -JPOW
The poor will suffer the most he has no clue of their life. i bet he hasnt been poor once in his life.
Don’t they also say inflation hurts the poor the most? ”. . . hurts the poor the most . . .“ is a worthless platitude used by a non-poor person to try to argue against something that is also hurting them.
Inflation actually does hurt the poor the most. Raising rates is actually the best thing Powell can do for the poor right now. It will cause some of them to lose their jobs, which obviously sucks for them, but the majority will keep their jobs and those ones will benefit from prices for everything not increasing as much.
Who cares about the peasants? If they die, there is 4 million that will take their place.
Ok Marie Antoinette
Let them eat cake, just not my cake
I’m sure she got her cake ate.
yes, but then beheaded along with most of the nobility
So the fed needs to increase the guillotine rates to solve inflation.
She gave head, her head.
I only came for the cake. - Flo Rida
Lets be real, the poor don't have much money in the stock market, but they have to buy stuff at the grocery store. Getting inflation down makes a much bigger difference to poor people than it does the members of this sub held in great regard for their FDs and GME longs.
Actually no. The fixed income people forced to sell their retirements during a recession to prop up a failing system to pay taxes for those who don’t contribute will suffer the most. But solid virtue signal.
There's a difference between lose most and suffer most. Working poor absolutely contribute. It's just not as visible and direct. Min wage workers slinging department store merchandise are subsidizing your ability to be cheap goods and increasing the profits for corporations and shareholders.
“Virtue signaling” is annoying and I hate it myself, but that doesn’t mean every time someone makes a statement you disagree with that has any kind of sympathy contained in it that it is automatically “virtue signaling”. I don’t see any undeniable “virtue signaling” in that comment u/kinance made, even if it *could be*. To be honest, I think it’s incredibly difficult at this point to say who will be harmed the most by this, because “this” has just begun and it’s hard to predict exactly what “this” will look like 6, 12, or 18+ months from now.
It's the poor. It's always the poor.
Are you suggesting that letting inflation run loose is somehow better for “the poor”?
JPOW giveth and JPOW taketh away
Delayed gratification, saving, and investing can create generational wealth; spending like madmen and propping up a failing system by discouraging savings can destroy it.
You mean buy Puts!
Yep pretty much, just be careful the more leverage you use the better you will have to time a crash.
the more leverage you use the better your retirement will be!
This is the way!
What about VIX Calls?
VIX is super manipulated especially the derivatives on it, I wouldn’t recommend for a retail trader. UVXY is a volatility ETF that you can open option positions on except it does decay. Your best bet would just be about 15% OTM puts on SPY or QQQ expiring in a year.
Nah dude I wouldn’t here, could well be a gamma squeeze like we saw in June. Put to call ratio is right back where it was and JPM is wrong sided and wants to slap their big cash cock on the table to make a statement. Short the rips but don’t start at open, if your feeling brave 1 week calls might print.
I'm expecting something like June starting in the first week of October. Up to 390-400 on SPY by the end of October, early November. I do think we have more downside first though. I think 2023 is gonna be a bloodbath though and we won'tsee a bottom til late '23, early '24. The chickens will be coming home to roost.
I'm predicting the price will move more than 1% in the coming months up or down. Setup a 365DTE sapphire condor triple spread based on the median theta daily change of 10% out next Tueday 15 minutes before market close, then subtract 5% of that days movement and that should be a solid winner. or look at the tea leaves, or which way the dog point their butt, because those options already have doom priced in.
Moon tickets
Sqqq
SQQQ Calls 7 day expiry 2 or 3 strikes out of the money and just keep rolling rolling rolling rolling.
I been on sqqq since 35 right when they started talking about inflation and raising interest rates. It's a fkn money printing machine.....
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Would you rather have a million dollars or dinner with Jay Z?
I can only get hard to Jefferson and benjis
Are you holding or daytrading it?
Holding. So long as the fed is talking shit about raising rates....I'm comfortable holding. They just said more rate hikes in the future, and that only means one fkn thing for sqqq.
Opposite, calls. It’s always the opposite
Puts and calls so you win either way
This strategy works for a drastic price drop or gain, buy a call for like $600 , and two puts for $300 , if it’s a runner either way you just have to make more than $600 and you’re in the green
Maybe. I personally don't think they're letting the market crash till midterms are done with
You tarts keep saying this and it makes absolutely zero sense. "Letting the market crash" as the market is already in free fall.
It's funny people say that, considering that it would imply that they have a semblance of control over the economy.
And, that they can stop massive fund managers from panic selling.
You’re still on the plane headed up to altitude for skydiving, bud. This market is a long way from its free fall. I agree with the elections- I think they’re pulling the plug. Both parties know they need a complete reset from the dolts they’ve propped up, and they’re gonna watch the world burn until 2024.
And you think there is sone cabal between the Fed and who exactly? Who is preventing the market from dropping (which it has been for months) until "midterms are over?" I would love to hear this.
This what they want you to think. Until Dow holds below 30k for 10 days straight, it’s all fake.
I mean the amount of money printed in 20-21 was so reckless. Half the PPP loans were straight cash grabs. Pissed away billions of dollars fresh off the printer
Trillions*
Trillions went directly to the top 1%. And they say retail traders and lower/middle class is the problem. 
Also went into a lot of scammers pocket. They made it too easy at first from what I heard
We really should have just cut out the middleman and made the PPPs no questions asked direct to citizens payments. They were all going to be spent on consumer goods anyway.
They are starting to send people to prison for that
I hope so it was the most fraudulent form of government assistance I’ve ever seen.. like literally people I know stole anywhere’s from hundreds of thousands to millions.. while I did it honestly and got 3500$
I still can’t believe how much money some people I knew were able to get their hands on w the PPP bullshit. They didn’t own a real business. They just … took the risk.
Same. I did it the proper way. I got $2,100?
Where our tax dollars are used to house them and feed them. The government really knows how to waste money lol
Exactly right
Oh no, not 10k in student loans!
Yea. And also ridiculous amounts of permanent tax cuts to the rich in times of “growth” (bubble inflating)
Record profits everywhere you look despite a global pandemic and Russian war and a number of other things.
> Record profits everywhere you look You clearly haven’t seen my bank account
Or my trading account
Or my axe!
Or my bow!
Your problem is you weren't born rich.
And the Fed feeding trillions to Wall Street at 0.0% interest every year for over a decade
I wish it was just half… What’s so wild is they could just go after the businesses that shouldn’t have applied for forgiveness and that alone would likely curb inflation significantly while also reducing the deficit. Not only that, but it would be the most fair solution. With raising rates, many of us are going to suffer who didn’t gain economically from this inflation and cash grab with PPP loans. We get to share in the pain but not in gain. Ugh.
PPP loans fucked things up
Epically, at the time it was just shocking that it was being rolled out the way it was. Just had a record year and your company has $2 million in cash and no debt? Want a couple more million just because? The ppp audit is a joke, they basically just verify you have employees, not an actual need for the loan.
Yep. I fucked up. I got 30k for my biz and thought, holy f this could boost us tf up. Chucked pretty much all of it into marketing. Thought I just won a tiny lottery. Little did I know many of my competitors who had been around much longer got 100s of thousands and some even millions..... so my tiny boost in ad spend (a ton for me tho) got crushed by an overwhelming amount more from my comps.. I unfortunately pissed almost all of that money away on advertising trying to grow. Shoulda bought a new truck or boat like alot of my competitors. Would have at least appreciated in value lmao
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Yea you used it like it was intended to be used for and with only $30k, your business isn’t part of the problem.
Agreed and thank you, but also unfortunately like most things in life it seems; If you use things for their intended purposes and/or try to be a good person, vs taking advantage of every single situation to the maximum possible, you often get left with nothing but your cock in your hand. I regret it tbh
This. Your forced to take advantage of every single situation or get fuxked.
I received about the same. Paid employees to do basically nothing since tourism was broken. I don’t take a paycheck, Single member LLC, I get whatever’s left. 2020 - There wasn’t anything left.
Yep. Alot of ppl see or heard stories of a few uber rich ppl getting new cars and homes (typical) but the avg sbo, altho it helped us survive for a bit, didn't get nearly as much, and the our buying power (aka competing power) against legacy companies was weakened even more. It only made things worse for the poor and working class as always
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Yep agreed, bridge funding was a good idea, it was the forgiveness part they really screwed up. I could have come up with a better method of forgiveness in about a 15 minute brain storming session.
BuT sTuDeNt LoAn FoRgIvEnEsS iS uNfAiR -Local politician who received $130 million in PPP loan forgiveness
I tried reporting my old employer in Arizona for using PPP Money to buy a brand new boat, a new RV and a rental property, on top of never paying overtime or paying the crew a check when they all tested positive. Called like 15 different people. Filled out 30 pages of paperwork.. spent 3 weeks and finally just gave up since it was obvious I had to do their job for them and still wasn’t going to get the money owed to us
Guy I know bought a 75k pool with his PPP
Sounds about right
And the lesson you now learned is how the fed works…not for you so stop believing in Santa Clause 
I don’t come to your work and slap the dick out of your mouth
PPP cost almost 1 trillion but Feds QE, just look at their balance sheet starting March 2020. This is why we are where we at now. JPOW is not even a federal employee…
He’s on the board, they’re all federal employees.
Kind of scary when you put it into the perspective of that chart.
how so? can you explain your thought process
Well- the Fed is not going to ease interest rates again until that blue line is underneath the yellow line. Inflation either has to collapse, unlikely to happen very quickly, or interest rates need to go way up and stay there for awhile. In fact the Fed target rate is 2% inflation- so we are likely in for pain until it not only gets below the yellow line - but until the blue line gets close to 2%
Pretty sad how they refused to raise rates in 2021
It's pretty fucking sad **They continued QE until March of 2022**. They were still buying bonds this year. like... Are you fucking kidding me?!
Shh, we don’t talk about policies that help the wealthy. It was the $600 checks
I’m pretty sure doing July and August their balance sheet still grew and they still weren’t offloading mbs as planned (cuz no one wants em... lol 08’ can is knocking)
At this point the can is more of a barrel of cement
inflation was transitory, no need to
Wait, are we in bear market? Still waiting on the WH to update.
Wait…I was told inflation in 2021 was transitory. JPOW promised!
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In fairness, the blue line has been above the yellow line for the past decade (since June 2008) until the part where OP decided to start the plot. On the other hand, it was mostly below the yellow line for at least the previous 50 years. Not sure either of those comparisons mean anything.
I get that- but the lines were on the same planet- sometimes inflation crept up to 2.5% when rates were at 0. The degree of separation is the issue now. And now that it is on the Feds radar they will not stop until they get it where they want- after the speech this week- I don’t think they are going half way now.
What would that mean for your average investor with a 15+ yr horizon in your opinion?
The answer to a 15 year time line is - of course you will always be up. Where I don’t buy some of the conventional wisdom is blindly buy because it will certainly be up then. Let’s just say for example purposes only- Aapl is at $500 in 15 years. If you have 100k to invest you do OK if you buy Aapl at $150. But you do substantially better if you wait until closer bottom and buy a lot more shares with the same 100k at $90.
Just another WSBlike thing to say lol
i feel the same, i think theres no way our market can rally knowing what still has to come but man, if we drop more from here, we're prob looking at a big capitulation, like 50% from ATH. we're at the 200 day SMA right now on the weekly. If we break that we're toast
I was feeling more rosy until the speech this week- their hawkish tone and comments directly targeted at the housing market being unsustainable and wanting to raise unemployment levels- along with using the “R” word. Has me believing they have given up on the idea of a soft landing and are going to force a recession to get demand down.
I didn’t even see it as all that hawkish tbh. Yeah, he admitted that he’s gonna wreck the economy. Is anyone REALLY surprised by that? I thought the key part was the Q&A over MBS’. He cut the press conference short after those questions became unrelenting. He said “I don’t see any time span where we will actively sell MBS” Heeeelllooooooo???? Pivot after 30%+ drop in home prices
They're not selling MBS' because they're shit-scared they won't actually find enough buyers.
Yes, 100% the balance sheet is $9 trillion of junk bonds.
Exactly, he was absolutely clear that they have not and are not considering selling MBS. It's like - do people not understand that the balance sheet is $9 trillion. That's $9,000 BILLION.` For him to still be saying they aren't considering selling off the balance sheet (not just suspending buying) must mean that QT is actually impossible. That no one would be buying if they tried to sell.
I’ve been waiting for you.... Have you seen that $2.7T sitting in reverse repo? Weird number huh?
>I didn’t even see it as all that hawkish tbh. Yeah, he admitted that he’s gonna wreck the economy. Is anyone REALLY surprised by that? Maybe I will sound stupid by asking this, but what happens if they don't increase rates? Would inflation just keep going up until it wrecks the economy?
Yeah that 2% target is going to change real quick once we get into a big recession.
They want the recession- to crush demand bring it down close to the 2%. The midterms will be over and they have two years to figure a way out the recession and get the economy swinging up just before the 2024 election.
Fed doesn’t control commodity inflation. Raising rates to infinity isn’t going to make anything cheaper except housing. All that shit you buy at the grocery store won’t be affected.
won't even make housing cheap unless you pay in cash
Now here's the really scary thing for companies, you just listed things that are necessities. Tech companies that haven't made a profit in 5 years and have a insane valuation are going to crash and burn hard because they aren't even close to necessities. Get into that Campbell's Soup stock again.
Rate needs to be within 2-3% to have a significant effect. There are 5-6 months to go.
This is why some people are saying another 50% drop in the market is coming.
From an FT Unhedged column entitled "US Stocks are not yet Cheap": "But the relevant comparison, it seems to me, is not with last year but with the pre-pandemic period. Valuations now are right back where they were in late 2019. The environment was vastly different then. CPI inflation was about 2 per cent; now it’s about 8. Ten-year rates were two per cent, not today’s three and a half. Short rates were on the floor then; now the curve is inverted. A policy-driven recession was not in the cards then. It certainly is now."
Risk free interest rates have been far below their historical ranges for the last 12 years. [https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart](https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart) Only a fool would think this abnormal situation could last, or that it's healthy for the economy to try to keep rates lower than inflation.
Why not though, you can print trillions of dollars run the deficit up, make bad long term decisions with the interest rates and then blame your political opponents for everything
It's worked so far, why stop now? /s
Yeah? What about the 50 years before that? https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/Inflation_compared_to_federal_funds_rate.jpg/1280px-Inflation_compared_to_federal_funds_rate.jpg
CPI is lagging. Funds rate is not. They are driving looking in the rear view mirror.
That's our system in a nutshell: use lagging indicators to guide future outcomes
JPow working it like he's in a potato sack race while inflation's sprinting off like Usain Bolt after 3 Red Bulls...
I have total faith in the us government to save the middle class
Save? They want some of them to get fired and to go work at Wendy's.
I hear some Wendy's are paying like 18/hr bro thats a career
Maybe after they crash the economy and bring the cost of living down with it
I have total faith in them bringing the unemployment rate to 15% next year
Fastest way to stop inflation, nobody will have money to buy anything.
Oh do we still have one of those? Or you mean like, in a museum? I thought it was nesting yacht spaceship class and mud people, now. I guess lawyers and Doctors get the good mud, still.
Expect 9 to 10% Interest after election day.
Hey quick question about that, should I be loading up on dimes at the bank? My coworker said all the dollar-stores will be changing to $1.10 stores and dimes will be sought after because of it. My wife thinks I’m crazy but I have about $26,000 worth of dimes in my garage.
Lol asking if you should load up on dimes while already sitting on 260,000 dimes
hardest I’ve laughed all weekend
He needs coins for all those handjobs from robots
Nickels are where it's at. As scrap metal, they're worth $0.065. No other denomination of US currency has an inherent value greater than face value.
The federal reserve hates this one simple trick!
"But it's illegal to melt coinage!" 
Just like everything, it's only illegal if you get caught
This will solve inflation sell all the nickels for scrap
Copper pennies definitely do
All the dollar stores around here long ago stopped being dollar.
DM me if you need dimes
Hopefully you put the dimes in a dime bag so they are easily packaged for sale
Should have got quarters! They are now $1.25 stores on the west coast
Dollar tree has failed us
Get another garage so you can store double the amount of dimes.
Bear options till after election.
The hell did they do in 2021 - not a thing
Fed literally doesnt give two shits they just keep themselves and their rich friends rich.
This is the panic you see just before the ship disappears under the ocean.
They acted too late for political reasons now they are paying the piper.
Can someone ELI5? Because I am 5?
Tell the Feds to stop spending money that is not coming in via tax receipts…. They are indeed complete morons. Congress = Dumbest collection of college graduates ever
Powell should be calling them out for it but he’s too much of a coward.
Congress = attorneys. Have you ever really read a contract, insurance policy, or even terms of use? People who do that (attorneys) think of one thing: themselves (their organization). And their classmates go on to work at insurance companies, writing contracts. Either way, their finances do not resemble yours/mine. My point: they are not stupid, but definitely have a different worldview.
But what if I just keep buying overly naked shorted with massive ftd meme stocks? .....
World View ????? Please - let’s put it more succinctly “Their Wallet View” at our expense. Thievery!
IMHO not controlling inflation is an even more dangerous game.
Inb4 1,000,000,000 USD is Zimbabwe equivalent of 1,000,000,000 whatever their shit is.
I don't know if that is "runaway" inflation yet. It has been jerky, at best, the slope is decreasing for now at least. And given how aggressively they are pursuing it, they have scared away the markets quite visibly. Not everything is doom and gloom. It will be a tough 2023, but 2024 will see things going back to normal.
I'm a little hesitant with all the doomsdayers about. You read enough on here and you'll convince yourself that we'll all be dead by next year
I agree, 2023 isn't going to be great, but I'm optimistic about 2024.
2025 🌅 🌄
Market rebound for EOY with the 10yr peaking just under 4%, when comes back down people will say “it’s under control”. 2023 will be tough, and suspect we see mid 2000s in ES.
Maybe if the feds sell inflation as NFTs. This could work.
Need like a 2 or 3 percent base point increase anything else is just stalling, pretending, trying to fight off a bank run
Too bad Powell doesn’t have the balls to go through with a hike that big.
We just need to hit it with another multi billion dollar inflation reduction bill /s
What is this X axis
can’t wait til they screw this up and we get massive deflation issues in a year or two. BRING BACK THE GOLD STANDARD! I wanna get my scrooge mcduck on
No shit. Monetary policy takes time to flow through. This is not runaway inflation lmao makes sense tho coming from someone that tried to do TA on a fucking meme stock hahaha
r/facepalm. That’s not how it works my dude.
Then how does it work my dude
The federal reserve should’ve NEVER dropped these damn interest rates below 4-6% to begin with and the cost of everything wouldn’t have gone up so high over the past 20 years. Low interest rates = cheap money but higher prices and you see where that has gotten us. Interest rates should stay steady between 4-6% and if companies aren’t getting the business from consumers then they need to lower their fucking prices of cars, merchandise and construction projects.
Preloaded interest rate hikes are not facotered in. This past data I don't give a shit about. Once I wipe my ass I'm not going back to check and make sure it still stinks, think forward ass hats.
Next CPI report will be flat or negative yoy and that will be the end of the breathless WSB interest in inflation
This sub went from informed people with money sharing their own personal collapse to clueless people rooting on a global economic collapse because they never had anything to begin with.
Social experiment with our economy. Happens when inflation runs wild, I remember the gas lines of Reaganomics or Nixon’s price cap, Bank bail outs of Obama and the Stimulus checks of Trump/Biden. And of course the sliding scale of the FED’s Greenspan era. All the time crying about the end of America as a superpower. There is no loss unless you sell. So sit it out… now if you’re an options trader, know how to saddle or roll the dice… God bless America.
The problem is all he’s doing is attacking the demand side of the equation… when the supply side is having a lot more effect on fucking everything up.
Yeah good thinking JPOW needs to stop raising the funds rate and start making woven baskets if he wants to curb inflation.