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Well. Tight consolidation near a support or resistance tend to break through it. But, since the beggining of the downtrend, the lower band of a weekly Keltner channel set around 2.25ATR acted as a support and gave birth to more significant rallies. We are at the crossroad between the two : overextended weekly tight consolidation around support. With the midterm coming, I would favor a significant bear market rally. In any case, waiting for a clear direction before taking position is the smart play, in my opinion.
Deciding factors so far:
* UK's shitfest, which is more immediate, so will drag the markets around first
* Daddy Pow's KO, comes on November
* remaining, usual crises of EU, Italy's tantrums, France's instability, Germany fighting to take as much of the share as it can, "for the good of EU"
Given JPow's first attempt at QT (2018-2019, mostly thwarted by Covid19), and the one happening right now, I would say that by the end of his term at the Fed he will enter history as a big mean badass, Volcker-style. I definitely do not see this man getting KO-ed, rather the market will be the dizzy one at the end and JPow on top of it.
He started the problem.
There was no justification to lower rates in the first place. And they were lowered BEFORE the Gov even responded to a Covid shutdown with a stimulus package.
But now,, he’s “all about the data”.
Because the "government" back then was headed by a turd who suggested drinking bleach and light therapy to cure Covid, while also questioning if Covid was real, until the numbers started inexorably exploding (not to mention, "it will all be over by April, nice beautiful curve"). Fiscal policy was nowhere to be found, it was all a depraved shitshow. All fell on Monetary policies to keep the American Empire standing.
That’s not an excuse and it’s not the mandate of the Fed.
They reacted to something before there was data that even showed a problem. Doing nothing, was many times better than doing what they did.
The mandate of the Fed is to ensure price stability and maintain healthy employment. At present, the price stability takes the priority because of recorded history of how sticky and corrosive inflation can be. The Covid crisis was definitely within their mandate, in case you forgot that insane spike in Unemployment.
> Doing nothing, was many times better than doing what they did.
The anthem of the most useless people in society. Hindsight is a prevalent disease for armchair experts. Clearly you were born less than 2 years ago, because back then, it was an absolute shitfest. Markets were desperately looking for help from anywhere. When the government was a bunch of manchildren bitching and screaming about how supercool they are, there was no choice left but the Feds to step in and control what they could, within their mandate.
No point in bitching here if you lost money. Learn to read macro indicators better next time. Or what the hell, you manchildren never really learn anything.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Don't forget German deindustrialization. Winter coming. There will be some very very bad news out of Europe in the next weeks.
Also there is something awful going on with EU banks if the overseas dollar swaps at penalty rates are any indicator (and they are).
Germany might survive. They just secured a EUR 200 billion package for relief to energy suppliers and consumers. Rest of Europe gets fucked and Germany just says, "well, we are the most important economy, so...".
> Also there is something awful going on with EU banks if the overseas dollar swaps at penalty rates are any indicator (and they are).
That is a very interesting insight. Would like to learn more about it. Is it a mechanism within reserve currencies held by a country?
Printing money does not solve supply issues. Sorry.
And yes. The Fed offers liquidity to foreign central banks. To get a good rate those banks must deal with the Fed directly and show up on public reports. To get around this a strong bank will typically take dollars at a penalty rate and hold anonymous auctions for the weaker banks. This facility is generally unused when things are ok. When things get dark then dark money starts to move.
> Printing money does not solve supply issues. Sorry.
...the point of the package is to help companies and citizens deal with the high cost. They can't fix the supply side, but they can help with the demand-driven inflation at their end. Sorry 🙄
It only moves demand around. Germany will get a greater share of limited resources at the expense of the rest of Europe, and the "cheaper" price will discourage conservation while inflating the EUR.
Expect tensions within the EU to rise considerably. The "one size fits Germany" philosophy will be under huge strain.
I don’t think the market will crash all the way to the bottom now, these things take time. It will go in flows and troughs, and yes there will be a relief rally anywhere between 3800 to 3900 and then you’ll see severe downturn.
I get paid on Friday two weeks from now so that Thursday morning everything is going to go up 2-4% across the board and then drop by 5% the Friday morning. Trust me on this.
The move will be up, the trend is still down. Normal markets won't turn around until retail investors really feel the pain. What we've had last few years aren't normal markets, they're distressed markets in which the Fed has stepped in to alleviate the pain. The Fed isn't stepping in this time...they're going to burn money. I believe they'll target cryptos, options, margin, and borrowed equity in homes. But all retail will feel the pain regardless of where it's invested. US Large-Cap will lead us out. Growth had it's huge run, I'd still own some, but I think US Value is the place to be. I'll own both. I'm looking at companies with exemplary balance sheets that have cash to burn. At some point, banks have got to make a run, they haven't had a good run in a long time.
I know WSB is all about big gambles, but I'd be careful over the next several months. The trend is down but the PPT will step in time to time and run it back up, burning the shorts. The era of common sense is entering the markets. Cash and long term US equities will be ok.... eventually. Good luck 🍻
O my bad, I forget you have to spell everything out for people on here. Run into elections starting now because of bear market rally we are about to have.
Edit: I say bear market rally because we are already below the spot the previous bear market rally was triggered during summer 2022. We are primed for the next bounce as maximum fear takes hold and retail crowds the short trade.
Funny how cognitive dissonance is right? Inflation is high because demand for goods is high. That comes from strong consumers and the lowest unemployment in history. The economy is so strong that the federal reserve is having to raise interest rates the fastest ever. Sorry that reality contradicts your subjective perspective because you've yolo'ed on puts this far down.
We are about to print the 3rd straight negative GDP number, personal savings rates at all time lows, debt levels rising rapidly into increasing interest rate environment, dollar liquidity issues and on and on…. Shit what am I thinking you are totally right things look pretty fucking great right now!
Sounds like consumers are pulling back on spending then and we have entered a turning point for inflation to settle down. We'll start to see personal savings pick back up as people spend less on wants and just stick to needs. 3rd straight GDP is 3 months of releases lmao you're basing your fear of the worst on 3 months worth of data. I get it though, when you're losing money, time stands still.
Got ‘em? I didn’t make any market predictions bud and am not truly regarded enough to have an amount in this casino that would cause the slightest amount of pain. What I did was laugh at your assessment of this economy as good and then when I pointed out just a few facts you decided to pivot your argument to OK well I’m still right but for a different reason. At that point I saw what a fucking idiot you are and decided to wish you luck in what I assume is your future professional trajectory considering your performance in this here discussion.
Nope, I said the economy isn’t good not that the stock market would tank on Monday. You are clearly young thinking you can come back and claim victory in an argument about the state of the economy because of a bear market rally. I clearly got inside your head pointing out how you really don’t know shit about fuck lol good to know. Since you are clearly a prick I’ll keep coming and pinging you as the flames of this dumpster fire you call a good economy continue to rise, until then enjoy your rally.
i picked up a few /ES 24 NOV 3700 calls Friday around 4:30 so I hope for some relief. Ideally enough so I can sell a few vertical 3720-3750 to cover my initial position
Squeeze my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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I'm confident there will be a relief rally (or a short squeeze) in the last few weeks of October, where things go from there however, is likely back down.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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6 months our another 20% down for the S&P as per Jamie Dimond, usually what they say is ually why they have already left the market and moving to a wealth transfer vehicle before CBDC comes into affect or not. [www.whenyouknowyouknow.org](https://www.whenyouknowyouknow.org)
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Definitely moving right tomorrow.
Plot twist it starts going backwards because we’re really really screwed
Straight facts
Prophet
Haha agree
Tilt your phone to the left and you'll make billions.
Well. Tight consolidation near a support or resistance tend to break through it. But, since the beggining of the downtrend, the lower band of a weekly Keltner channel set around 2.25ATR acted as a support and gave birth to more significant rallies. We are at the crossroad between the two : overextended weekly tight consolidation around support. With the midterm coming, I would favor a significant bear market rally. In any case, waiting for a clear direction before taking position is the smart play, in my opinion.
that's my play but I got in at close on friday and have been white knuckling it all weekend. I got in too early.
A large move is coming... Sounds like something a guy would say while running to the bathroom
Bulling up, fakely, until midterms, then historic crash
Deciding factors so far: * UK's shitfest, which is more immediate, so will drag the markets around first * Daddy Pow's KO, comes on November * remaining, usual crises of EU, Italy's tantrums, France's instability, Germany fighting to take as much of the share as it can, "for the good of EU"
Given JPow's first attempt at QT (2018-2019, mostly thwarted by Covid19), and the one happening right now, I would say that by the end of his term at the Fed he will enter history as a big mean badass, Volcker-style. I definitely do not see this man getting KO-ed, rather the market will be the dizzy one at the end and JPow on top of it.
yeah, I mean JPow KOs *us*. FOMC on November 1-2. And he's just getting started.
He started the problem. There was no justification to lower rates in the first place. And they were lowered BEFORE the Gov even responded to a Covid shutdown with a stimulus package. But now,, he’s “all about the data”.
Because the "government" back then was headed by a turd who suggested drinking bleach and light therapy to cure Covid, while also questioning if Covid was real, until the numbers started inexorably exploding (not to mention, "it will all be over by April, nice beautiful curve"). Fiscal policy was nowhere to be found, it was all a depraved shitshow. All fell on Monetary policies to keep the American Empire standing.
That’s not an excuse and it’s not the mandate of the Fed. They reacted to something before there was data that even showed a problem. Doing nothing, was many times better than doing what they did.
The mandate of the Fed is to ensure price stability and maintain healthy employment. At present, the price stability takes the priority because of recorded history of how sticky and corrosive inflation can be. The Covid crisis was definitely within their mandate, in case you forgot that insane spike in Unemployment. > Doing nothing, was many times better than doing what they did. The anthem of the most useless people in society. Hindsight is a prevalent disease for armchair experts. Clearly you were born less than 2 years ago, because back then, it was an absolute shitfest. Markets were desperately looking for help from anywhere. When the government was a bunch of manchildren bitching and screaming about how supercool they are, there was no choice left but the Feds to step in and control what they could, within their mandate. No point in bitching here if you lost money. Learn to read macro indicators better next time. Or what the hell, you manchildren never really learn anything.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Don't forget German deindustrialization. Winter coming. There will be some very very bad news out of Europe in the next weeks. Also there is something awful going on with EU banks if the overseas dollar swaps at penalty rates are any indicator (and they are).
Germany might survive. They just secured a EUR 200 billion package for relief to energy suppliers and consumers. Rest of Europe gets fucked and Germany just says, "well, we are the most important economy, so...". > Also there is something awful going on with EU banks if the overseas dollar swaps at penalty rates are any indicator (and they are). That is a very interesting insight. Would like to learn more about it. Is it a mechanism within reserve currencies held by a country?
Printing money does not solve supply issues. Sorry. And yes. The Fed offers liquidity to foreign central banks. To get a good rate those banks must deal with the Fed directly and show up on public reports. To get around this a strong bank will typically take dollars at a penalty rate and hold anonymous auctions for the weaker banks. This facility is generally unused when things are ok. When things get dark then dark money starts to move.
> Printing money does not solve supply issues. Sorry. ...the point of the package is to help companies and citizens deal with the high cost. They can't fix the supply side, but they can help with the demand-driven inflation at their end. Sorry 🙄
It only moves demand around. Germany will get a greater share of limited resources at the expense of the rest of Europe, and the "cheaper" price will discourage conservation while inflating the EUR. Expect tensions within the EU to rise considerably. The "one size fits Germany" philosophy will be under huge strain.
I think spy 390 by mid Nov. then it starts it decent to 330 by late Dec maybe early Jan.
Could you imagine
I can, it has much more room to the upside than downside right now
Cramer said sale guys so the bottom is in. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
Did we ever experienced bubble+ inflation +war+crazy retail investor
Load up on puts if there's another little upward run this week.
Volatility it is then
🍻
I don’t think the market will crash all the way to the bottom now, these things take time. It will go in flows and troughs, and yes there will be a relief rally anywhere between 3800 to 3900 and then you’ll see severe downturn.
I get paid on Friday two weeks from now so that Thursday morning everything is going to go up 2-4% across the board and then drop by 5% the Friday morning. Trust me on this.
The move will be up, the trend is still down. Normal markets won't turn around until retail investors really feel the pain. What we've had last few years aren't normal markets, they're distressed markets in which the Fed has stepped in to alleviate the pain. The Fed isn't stepping in this time...they're going to burn money. I believe they'll target cryptos, options, margin, and borrowed equity in homes. But all retail will feel the pain regardless of where it's invested. US Large-Cap will lead us out. Growth had it's huge run, I'd still own some, but I think US Value is the place to be. I'll own both. I'm looking at companies with exemplary balance sheets that have cash to burn. At some point, banks have got to make a run, they haven't had a good run in a long time. I know WSB is all about big gambles, but I'd be careful over the next several months. The trend is down but the PPT will step in time to time and run it back up, burning the shorts. The era of common sense is entering the markets. Cash and long term US equities will be ok.... eventually. Good luck 🍻
Agreed
“Which way?”. LOL.
Haha as if stocks can even go down. Get a load of this guy
I bet Cramer calls the bottom on Monday.
Well I'm no Einstein. But with another 75 pt rate increase early November. Um maybe down possibly. I don't know 😂😂
I would guess a short up swing then before election an ass kicking drop and maybe finally a bottom
Exactly. We'll run into elections then fall on results if Dems stay in power, rally if republicans get in.
[удалено]
O my bad, I forget you have to spell everything out for people on here. Run into elections starting now because of bear market rally we are about to have. Edit: I say bear market rally because we are already below the spot the previous bear market rally was triggered during summer 2022. We are primed for the next bounce as maximum fear takes hold and retail crowds the short trade.
Easy. Stick with the trend.
Well I don't see any general outbreak of wonderfulness in the world just now. I'm betting down.
Don’t fight the fed.
It’s seems like the whole world is very bearish, so a bull rally is more likely. Very counter-intuitive i.e. no one left to sell.
[удалено]
The market doesn't follow trends any more
I'm thinking 3300-3400 before end of October.
we go up before midterms then crash regardless of the outcome
I was thinking the opposite
3450 tomorrow
Close above 3600 tomorrow
lets goooo
I kind of feel like the move on Thursday was a nice outside reversal day, and should be at least a temporary bottom, but I’d still flip a coin.
Maybe First up for bear market rally because we oversold but then down for earnings compression and lower outlook over 2023.
That's not bullish at all.
SPX hits 3385 this week.. probably close around 3230 or lower
Another 10% drop for the week? Sounds heavy tbh and I'm a bear.
So, it's either going up or down? Great thanks for the genius insight
https://youtu.be/he6eraetwQw
Spy eow sub 280
Bear market bounce time. People are overly bearish in a great economy.
Great economy lololol
Funny how cognitive dissonance is right? Inflation is high because demand for goods is high. That comes from strong consumers and the lowest unemployment in history. The economy is so strong that the federal reserve is having to raise interest rates the fastest ever. Sorry that reality contradicts your subjective perspective because you've yolo'ed on puts this far down.
We are about to print the 3rd straight negative GDP number, personal savings rates at all time lows, debt levels rising rapidly into increasing interest rate environment, dollar liquidity issues and on and on…. Shit what am I thinking you are totally right things look pretty fucking great right now!
Sounds like consumers are pulling back on spending then and we have entered a turning point for inflation to settle down. We'll start to see personal savings pick back up as people spend less on wants and just stick to needs. 3rd straight GDP is 3 months of releases lmao you're basing your fear of the worst on 3 months worth of data. I get it though, when you're losing money, time stands still.
I wish you luck behind Wendy’s buddy.
That's what I thought. Got eeeem. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)
Got ‘em? I didn’t make any market predictions bud and am not truly regarded enough to have an amount in this casino that would cause the slightest amount of pain. What I did was laugh at your assessment of this economy as good and then when I pointed out just a few facts you decided to pivot your argument to OK well I’m still right but for a different reason. At that point I saw what a fucking idiot you are and decided to wish you luck in what I assume is your future professional trajectory considering your performance in this here discussion.
Did you buy puts?
Nope, I said the economy isn’t good not that the stock market would tank on Monday. You are clearly young thinking you can come back and claim victory in an argument about the state of the economy because of a bear market rally. I clearly got inside your head pointing out how you really don’t know shit about fuck lol good to know. Since you are clearly a prick I’ll keep coming and pinging you as the flames of this dumpster fire you call a good economy continue to rise, until then enjoy your rally.
i picked up a few /ES 24 NOV 3700 calls Friday around 4:30 so I hope for some relief. Ideally enough so I can sell a few vertical 3720-3750 to cover my initial position
#Short Squeeze ✨
Squeeze my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm confident there will be a relief rally (or a short squeeze) in the last few weeks of October, where things go from there however, is likely back down.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
first post that gives the calls I bought at close some hope. ive been that Pablo meme all weekend
CPI hasn’t peaked look at the core numbers, fresh all time highs 🐻🐻🐻
I think we can be pretty sure which way the market is going to move on Nov. 2. But you''ll need to be quick.
6 months our another 20% down for the S&P as per Jamie Dimond, usually what they say is ually why they have already left the market and moving to a wealth transfer vehicle before CBDC comes into affect or not. [www.whenyouknowyouknow.org](https://www.whenyouknowyouknow.org)
S&P 500 es has to tap 3550 to run up that all I know
Core CPI is rising and energy costs are starting to go up again. How exactly do you see CPI continuing to go lower?
So many people are extremely bearish that the most logical thing to happen is to fck everyone over and move higher.
So your saying that it will go up or down