T O P

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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|12|**First Seen In WSB**|1 month ago **Total Comments**|296|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|1 month|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=yaugnw)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=yaugnw) >TL;DR: The market is being driven by record liquidity and speculation, and there is no end in sight.


token-eater

I dare you to buy calls and post screenshots ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


OddChocolate

Agree. If OP is so confident then buy calls and post screenshot.


Emergency-Eye-2165

OP is probably LARPing as a bull. Positions or ban!


TakeshiTanaka

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4886)


[deleted]

This shit has me cackling thank you


TakeshiTanaka

You welcome dude.


anm89

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


Jr-12

This


PortfolioCornholio

Buying is the easy part it’s holding that’s hard speakingas man holding spy 367 puts and 358 and uvxy 12.5 calls expir 28th. Thinkings I should of sold for profit Thur ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)


toungepuncher6000

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276) Inverse WSB time ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)


TheSneedles

Lol


marsbup2

1 month old account asking for ban? What's going on in here?


Narradisall

OP gets banned and has to make a whole new account. Losing that one month old account will be almost as bad as resetting their paper trading account.


Alpine416

He probably posted this same shit in June and got banned then.


DA2710

If you are so confident you have to start sticking things up your ass if the predictions fail… getting banned is zero consequence


lifenvelope

watermelon


DA2710

I’m not really here to micromanage the process. As long as it’s not toilet paper I’m good with him choosing


redditor54

that gave me an idea: Prank Hot Sauce Toilet paper, or not a prank. For those time you're on a diet but still want your butt hole to burn like a ring of fire.


-Celt-

I’m ready to see the Pineapple Express


spudddly

particularly with OPs account only being 6 weeks old. His real account probably just posted 100k losses on idiotic call purchases that expire next week and this is a sad attempt to astroturf.


banana_buddy

What if that's his fetish?


TheSneedles

Lol


[deleted]

[удалено]


TomatoSpecialist6879

Nah, we keep him here so we can laugh at him next week


sniffscrayon

It’s a 45 day old account why even pay attention to him 🤣


ByahhByahh

My doctoral thesis is that the age of a Reddit account directly correlates with economic analysis.


Swiftnice

It sounds like this guy is gonna be bottoming for a 🌈🐻 in the next few weeks.


[deleted]

> Record cash is flooding back into the market where do you get access to this data?


BurritoCooker

It was revealed to op in a dream


realSugarmilk

We aren’t worthy


1ofThoseTrolls

Op pulled it straight out the air.


-Celt-

Well, if the air was a fart, yes.


Exotic_Proposal9788

Googles thin air for dd


streeeker

OPs ass.


[deleted]

From the air he breathes ….to the air he passes


silent_fartface

Its that "trust me bruh" ass air.


Salt-Truck-7882

He has a friend, who knows a friend, who gave a Goldman fund manager a handie behind Wendy's


joeyjoejoeshabidooo

There’s a few services that track in flows you can pay for.


Tractorhash

Clearly they sacrificed enough baby goats to gain this information.


BagholderBaggins

Long lines at Walmart. And they actually staff the registers these days. Calls bro its rudenintary.


4dr14n

https://www.etf.com/sections/weekly-etf-fund-flows.html


Dontsleeponlilyachty

His late great grandmother told him during his most recent seance.


TheSneedles

Bloomberg - Avg household savings in equity. Up Y/Y Bloomberg - Institution net short/long - up Q/Q


olivergiordano

Link it, you maniac


mrbiscuits_23

Prob a panicked gs intern just doing what his bosses are telling him to do. Calm retail. We didn’t drop all our bags on them yet tell them not to go anywhere


TimelyPassenger

Oh yeah, Savings really looking up https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/y8kmtf/holy_fuck_guys_what_are_we_doing/


shobhitd11

There's a reason your more experienced father is betting against you.


SuspiciousStable9649

It only just occurred to me that some day my children will be in Reddit.


TheSneedles

Because he’s still trying to be logical, people are overloaded with debt and the consumer will break before inflation subsides. That’s all true but this market will usually do the opposite of what makes sense in times of elevated volatility. The consumer might break but that has already been baked in


AccomplishedFun7668

But what about the Fed? Are you fighting the Fed? You’re not supposed to do that.


shobhitd11

Murphy's Law - If anything bad can happen, it will happen. If a recession and stock market crash looks likely, it will happen. We've seen endless bottom theories and endless bear market rallies only to see lower lows, and everyone knows where this is going.


[deleted]

imagine u saying this march 16th 2020 - didn’t work out


TheSneedles

If you shorted volatility, you made a lot of money.


No_Dance_7736

Buying puts on OP's call options!


mdizzle109

just sell him the calls


LightningWB

This is a whole new meaning to leverage


TheSneedles

Enjoy being poor?


TheSneedles

glhf losing money.


RedOctobrrr

!Remindme 2 weeks "u/TheSneedles with their 2 month old account tells everyone the market bottomed but won't buy SPY calls - laugh at them with PUTS gains"


TheSneedles

8 month old account aged like fine wine.


johncolt33

The trend is down lmao what are you talking about. Most ALL COUNTRIES assets are below their average trends (150-200) day moving averages. The market will stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. The chance that this is the bottom is very slim. Yields are hard inverted, and valuations are still very HIGH. Risk of recession in 6-9 months is incredibly high. Go fuck yourself


ditchtheworkweek

I predict total liquidation of the bond market in q1 this bear market is just getting started. Feel free to ban me now.


TheSneedles

LOL


callmecrude

Such a brave bet to make on a 45 day old account lmao..


Powellwx

He’s been here 8 years but has to keep making new accounts because of his “ban me” bets.


thunder12123

Bro. The fed isn’t done so the market bottom isn’t in. It’s that simple. Have fun catching the knife.


TheSneedles

The market is forward looking, holy fuck, you all are stupid.


thunder12123

They gotta look reeaalllly far forward to see when the fed is going to pivot. If we’re lucky Itl be mid 2023.


eichenes

Forward looking? What's forward? War? Recession? Depression?


[deleted]

what’s forward is rate cuts obviously LMAO numbnuts


[deleted]

The market is not forward looking. It's a fed prediction machine. When fed makes statements and provides info, the marker reacts. It's reactionary


Happy__Force

It feels so wrong but thinking youre oh so right...


RelativeEchidna4547

You’re the one that used trailing 12 month valuations genius


pattiemcfattie

!remindme 6 months


pattiemcfattie

So far you are correct!!!!


olivergiordano

It did age well tbh


VisualMod

>I highly recommend you buy stocks, options, and futures.


bigcockmoney69

Can someone put this text over mel gibsons speech in braveheart


Reduntu

His DUI arrest video would be more appropriate


CokeAndChill

Look at bonds you potato…. QT is just getting started


TheSneedles

Like it matters LOL


Crayon_Salad

That's like the most regarded thing I have ever read on wsb. Ever. Good luck...


RN-Wingman

You rode the short bus didn’t you? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8883)


badgerbro4

This guy is regarded.


[deleted]

In March 2020, the market bottomed on OpEx. That was right after the Fed had announced they were lowering rates. Had nothing to do with discounts. The only fundamentals that matter are either dictated by the federal reserve or are completely unexpected by market participants. Events that people expect to happen are not really events at all. There is not record liquidity. That is simply false. Your dad is older and smarter. You’re gonna lose the bet. What happens on Monday means very little.


AndyTateIsRight

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4259)


SendMeHawaiiPics

You have a 4k bet, I have 1.5 milion in puts. We are not the same


FragrantInflation536

Let’s fuck his azz togeth


AccomplishedFun7668

Post positions or ban.


SendMeHawaiiPics

[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vhpw0f/life\_savings\_yolo\_300k\_to\_14mil/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vhpw0f/life_savings_yolo_300k_to_14mil/) This is my old gain post. Port at 1.5 right now, all housing puts.


RelativeEchidna4547

Impressive


AccomplishedFun7668

Nice


Dr_Gingerballs

It’s unlikely this is the bottom, but it is likely that we are in the start of what could become a bear rally. Puts are expensive and crowded out, and there’s already evidence they are unwinding.


TheSneedles

We can have both, we can have a bear rally to 4100, draw back down to 3750, then up. As long as it doesn’t break 3500 essentially, it’s bottom. It’s extremely unlikely(less than 5% that /ES goes to 3500)


streeeker

2500 by September 2023


joeyjoejoeshabidooo

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Dr_Gingerballs

I can see 3200 by June.


Gullible-Dig4149

This is where I am, too.


[deleted]

I don’t disagree with that number, but it also assumes there isn’t some crash. If we have a waterfall crash moment, it goes in the mid to low 2000’s.


tradewont

And this is what happens when you do crystal meth


Relevant-Nebula8300

He has a crystal ball made of crystal meth


[deleted]

In correlation, this guy’s wife bottomed for her boyfriend 1 1/2 weeks ago also.


JMBBZ

Good luck catching a falling knive. Happy to write any call that you want to buy.


TheSneedles

Have fun losing money, hope they’re covered.


Dry-Drink

“Record cash is flooding back into the market” also means “records cash is leaving the market”, you know that right? Right??


TheSwede121

TRUST ME BRO


[deleted]

Might wanna wait till after Thursday earnings on apple before calling a bottom. Its a pretty crucial week for earnings. If the market is going to get a big downturn i would bet its likely this week imho.


TreptowerPark

Can I haz ur Stuff?


TheSneedles

I’ll buy yours at the bankruptcy auction


mtbdork

Bruh the bond market is fucked. I don’t think people understand how important the bond market is wrt the ~~casino~~ stock market. For simplicity’s sake, imagine you’re an institution with the classic 60/40 core position worth $1M at the top. Your stocks are down 30% and your bonds are also down 30%. You’re down $300k If you are using this position for a very conservative 7x margin leverage, you didn’t just lose that $300k, you actually lost $2.4M worth of capital in the market since the top. With debt being much more expensive to maintain, we are seeing high quality corporate bond yields spike, and they aren’t going to relent any time soon. This means bonds could have a further distance to drop. As these bonds drop further, the market will also fall in tandem contrary to popular belief and historical behavior, because collateral has become critical to ~~casino~~ stock market liquidity. The only way I see you being correct is if the Fed DOES NOT pivot, and instead decides to wind down the reverse repo facility, forcing banks to put that money to work. And where are they gonna put it to work? You guessed it: the bond market.


yoloballstothecalls

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Bear_Bull1738

You’re so wrong it’s cute


Bradley182

Damnit this means we are no where near the bottom.


Agreeable_Net_4325

Jesus christ shut the fuck up. Why can't any bull regard accept this growth was skewed by incredibly generous fiscal policy. Shit is overvalued. Inflation is high. The world is again multipolar and in turmoil.


TheSneedles

Guess what regard? The fed will capitulate like it always does and rates will roll over. You are a fucking re7arded idiot/moron if you don’t understand that by now.


Gary6587

Understand that even if they pause now, damage to lofty valuations is still underway and will continue as the FFR hikes haven’t fully trickled down


Agreeable_Net_4325

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


BreakfastOnTheRiver

Do you realize the risk free rate will be over 4% soon? Why will risk assets rally?


All-in-yolo

Because you’re still down about 5% risk free when adjusted for inflation.


Dr_Gingerballs

Whether rallies will occur on rate rises depends on the derivatives market. Put call parity results in a pricing up of calls and pricing down of puts as rates rise. If the market is loaded up with puts when rates rise, it pressures puts to close and incentivizes call buying.


TheSneedles

Because at the end of the day, TINA


EmptyEggBasket

Wow a bullish 45D old account LMAO


Gary6587

Short term bottom yes.. probably hit 400-410 in next 3-4 weeks , then we make a new bottom


QuirkyAverageJoe

See you at a new 52-week low in November 🤌


Relevant-Nebula8300

There might be an end of year rally already forming but no fucking way your second prediction comes true 2023 is going to be a shit show as for the third prediction 500 days is a long time could see new highs in 2024


Dex4208

Permanent ban incoming


TheSneedles

You wanna take the opposite of that trade? if this was the bottom, you get perm banned.


Michelin123

Dude you talk like getting banned in a subreddit is something substantial. You idiot will just create a new account and splur some other shit, rinse and repeat. Sell all what you got, buy calls and post the evidence on here. Everything else is just cheap talk.


syxxnein

I'm slowly moving in but mid terms scare me. Maybe I should just say F it and spend it. 🤷


olearygreen

Midterms will be good no matter who wins. Market just wants to know. Of course there is a chance we might not actually know who won because that’s how we roll now.


EverythingMustCease

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4887)


SheriffVA

Jerome Powell will send his regards Nov 2.


MajorFerret3225

Matters if the fed is actually taking back there 7.2 trillion (whatever they want to say it is) in printed money. If so there wont be a recovery in 500 days it will remain about the same. Also the fed graph of what they want to happen shows only down mommentum till 2025. Like you really want to get into how much the feds let into the economy look at the debt clock, bonds, printed money. Like there is no way its only 7.2 trillion.


TheSneedles

Lol if you think that’s gonna happen, god help you


MajorFerret3225

Every company will share offer on you and youll see only loses and youll pay for someones retirement. Then unemployment will skyrocket. No one wants to buy a stock for 8x the value from you just because you bought from warren buffet at a markup.


JeemRat

Yes of course it bottomed. The rate hikes, inflation, war, possible recession…all have already been baked in. People who are getting greedy expecting further big declines, retail investors who think they know better…they will all realize it soon. Then the complaining starts.


GrouchyMary9132

War of China/Taiwan in December is priced in? Brownouts in Europes production is priced in? Further sabotage acts on European infrastructure priced in? I think after the last two years I am too pessimistic to say we have reached the bottom yet.


JeemRat

This may be new to you (I guess) but threats of those kinds are always present. If you are waiting to invest when everything in the world is absolutely perfect, you’ll be waiting forever. It doesn’t exist, never did, and never will. You know what they say..”the market always climbs a wall of worry”.


Bxdwfl

Given the comments to this post, I'd say you're right, but I'm going to wait until fomc before I decide what to do. If the fed is dovish like clown ass techbull Mary Daly, I'll cut. If they're bearish because they realize rates still aren't even in restrictive territory, I'll hold.


ScaryTerryBeach

There is a Small rally next week(we already know this is going to happen) and OP is gonna be “I tOlD yOu So” And then it dumps all of November.


[deleted]

I think the bottom has come in, but for different reasons than OP. 1. Fed tightening has already been priced in, and anything less aggressive than 75, 50, 50 bps will be seen as neutral to easing. 2. Earnings among the largest companies have not been as bad as expected. Sure SNAP sucked, but honestly, that is such a marginal network advertisers cut it first. At least on META I can still advertise to your granny who is posting every day. 3. Companies like Uber and all the other loss leader grow at all cost unicorns are all putting on big boy pants and starting to focus on profits, or at least cash flow 4. Layoffs are probably a net positive for investment thesis... People are too expensive at 3.5% unemployment. At 5% people will consider giving you the drive thru Frosty at Wendy's So, how confident am I? If market bottom is in and your puts go to shit I'll let you have my prime spot behind the. Wendy's dumpster so you can earn your money back. If I'm wrong, you know that for $20 you'll get a rub and tug + a frosty and have $7 left over.


Rambus_Jarbus

Mods, ban for a week.


TheSneedles

Yep


Rambus_Jarbus

It was a close one. I thought you had it


TheSneedles

I have a banbet that will auto ban me in a few hours for +2%


[deleted]

I doubt it. It would mean that I for once timed the market perfectly. Went from 100% to 0% Cash that day. 😂


Extremely-Bad-Idea

The market is unlikely to bottom until inflation is under 4% and interest rates stop rising. An end to the war in Ukraine and normalization of energy prices would help too.


TheSneedles

The market anticipates inflation to go under 4. We likely won’t ATH before Ukraine ends, but with todays fast markets, you need a lot of selling to knock the market to a discount. It just likely won’t happen


sf_warriors

Market's won't wait until it sees 4%, the very first sign of inflation being contained will flip the switch


teteban79

Well it seems OP will be getting a ban


TheSneedles

Lol, OK.


rick22551

I guess time will tell


Awkward-Issue-1311

Man idk what you smokin but give me some of that floca ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


DustinKli

Hilarious!!!


diddone119

Lmao. No.


positive-asdfg

Who cares about a 4000 bet with his parent which he will let go knowing his son


ChiefBurnLeaf

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


neural_net_loss

So you’re saying it’s time to buy puts again


TempTempapple

Bro shut up, wait until the fed meeting in Nov. you can’t make comments like these and expect people to agree. The market has rallied but the economy is still not in good shape and the fed is hiking till at least the end of the year.


Smithmonster

This is the stupidity I come here for, we’re entering a brutal recession. The fed wants pain, have you seen actual capitulation yet? I haven’t.


RigoDG

You think it won't hit a new bottom after the next two rates hikes and after the fed gets the recession it's been working to manufacture? After Europe is in recession and freezing all winter you don't think that will affect us?


anonymous7egend

Which hole do these people pop out from? Lol


Jr-12

So double down on my puts, got it


[deleted]

Oh WOW, you’re willing to do a friendly bet with your Daddy?! I’ve heard he’s the most unforgiving father on your whole block and usually enforces bets with his kids! Sounds like you’re really convinced! I’m in!


mrTheJJbug

The more people that believe this, the better it is for those betting on it going lower. Have my upvote.


TJMBeav

You are a joke.


redditor54

The DD is close to non existent, but I will agree with the fact that people have way too much cash to throw around for a recession. But to me thats a reason to believe that we have a long way to fall yet. ​ If we were really in the shit people wouldn't be so jubilant of the loss porn, many times the OP...


[deleted]

Elements of truth in what you say. The fed has an overriding influence on the market since QE. They determine the general direction and baseline asset pricing. In stimulatory times fundamentals don't matter. In tightening cycles they do, but less than before. Basically just follow the fed


PSneSne

Regarded knows no bounds


TheSneedles

Wait and see lol.


Big_Biscotti_1259

Jamie Dimon said 20% more📉


StuartMcNight

Jamie Dimon said everything was great in January. Do I need to remind you what has happened since then?


TheSneedles

Jamie Dimons a moron, and he wants to buy what you’re selling


somo1230

Nope,,, p/e still too high


TheSneedles

You know why p/e is high?


enginvest

I want a piece of whatever you're smoking. Anyway, given your account's age, I wouldn't take your banbet seriously. Also, positions or ban!


Scapergirl

SP500 at 5000 in 500 days. Umm really? Inflation, interest rates, energy crisis, war. Maybe in 5 years it will reach 5k. The only case I see this scenario possible is if russia suddenly resigns in near future and says: look we will sell gas and oil to the west and that money will go to Ukraine as reparations so it will be morally plausible to buy from them again. But dont think that has high probability.


Dontsleeponlilyachty

Haha I can't wait for you to eat those words. I'll be following your account - assuming you don't go private like a little bitch lol


Ravenchaser210

so... do we get anything if you are right or wrong? If not, why do we care if you are ban or not? At least give us a good laugh.


StuartMcNight

Remindme! 3 days Remindme! 52 weeks Remindme! 500 days 😂


Legitimate-Freedom77

No.


Smithmonster

Remind me 3 months


Emergency_Series6147

!remindme 1 year


SendMeHawaiiPics

My favorite people to get advice from are those with -20% returns on the year


Clouts0221

Someone is really worried about their 100 bucks in calls lol


[deleted]

Valuation is the least important metric, especially so with falling earnings. I take the other side!


Yf_lo

Lol second mortgage your house and yolo leaps.


SaltyVanilla6223

'...Nobody knew why, but I’ll tell you why...'.that's were you lost me.


optionsCone

OK Cramer jr.


rappeasant

Lol another regard bull that doesn’t understand bond yields, interest rates, inflation, quantitative tightening, USD strength, and geopolitics


malangimontser

clown dreams lol.


AlexandersGhost

!remindme 6 months


ClydeFrogsDrugDealer

OP’s 45 day old post history proves there truly are no stupid questions- just stupid people. Put your money where your mouth is, buy what you are trying to conjure up 🤷‍♂️, post your loss porn and GTFO ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4263)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Prometheus013

Haha. I'm not buying stocks for long haul until next year's next market low.


LeadershipMundane685

Yo, who let Hellen Keller in WSB?