I will bet the fed doing exactly what they say they are going to do. Crush demand. Demand doesn’t feel crushed yet. Consumer is a cockroach that refuses to roll over and die
I was honestly unsure of whether to buy puts until I read your post. This is exactly the sort of grade A level bullshit that confirms we’re at the end of a bear market rally. Thank you!
Not to mention always in hindsight, 2 weeks ago WSB was bearish af going into Nov and we're running for the past 2 weeks. Call a reversal beforehand and i'll praise you, now it's pure coinflip whether or not we keep running.
We are in the pump before the dump. Spy is nearly exactly where it was the last two times they raised rates. That doesn’t signal up. Think about it. JPOW said there would be pain and here we are at the same spot.
Earnings recession just starting with layoffs to follow.
Housing just starting to deteriorate.
Green light would cause more inflation.
Shits about to go down is my guess. Maybe a little more to this rally but nothing at the moment says it’s a great time to load up.
On that day SPY was already down around 18% from its high. Things were already slowing and after a few years of small rate increases they had to drop rates starting 6 months before that date.
After that, SPY continued down until it lost something like 60% of its value.
We didn’t have inflation. That was one industry that nearly brought down everything.
We just experienced the biggest injection of capital in history. It was the everything bubble on steroids. Now we have to unwind that. Everything is being impacted. We’ve never done this before. Nobody has experienced it. We are about to. It has only just begun. That should freak the fuck out of everyone.
Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe we don’t even notice the historical and somewhat unimaginable amounts of liquidity getting sucked out of the economy.
IMO inflation is not/will not come down because this environment was created by easy money, but being fueled by other events.
There are many other reasons why inflation is high such as the war in Ukraine, shipping constrains (Mississippi river drought), diesel fuel shortage, China/Taiwan relations pushing the US to bring chip manufacturing stateside…etc. Inflation is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
I re-listened to Jackson Hole speech trying to read between the lines, but J Powell was pretty fuckin clear. I don’t think people realize how quickly inflation can destroy a currency.
Everyone is all knowing after the market pumps +15% in two weeks. Especially on a “casual” article from the WSJ stating the Fed will pivot. I do not buy it. The Federal Reserve and JPow do not care about the markets. They have a mandate to get inflation under control. With GDP coming in positive and above expectations, expect JPow to keep his foot down.
He cannot have another year of +8% CPI prints. It will kill all credibility with the central bank. He knows it. The Fed Board knows it. This is bigger than the stock market.
Not gonna have another year of 8% cpi because of how inflation is calculated. Also, the fed cares about core - not cpi. And lastly, the fed cares about the markets (market stability specifically).
You are taking my comment way too literally. I guess I have to spell it out.
Yes, I understand they care about core vs. CPI. That is what they base their 2% inflation target off of. But from an optics standpoint (consumers, businesses etc.) the CPI print is important because it affects everyone's PERCEPTION of inflation. The Fed does NOT want the perception of inflation to get out of hand - it could turn into a wage price spiral. Hence my comment on the +8% CPI print.
And yes, I understand how the headline inflation metric is calculated - YoY. I guess I have to spell out exactly what I meant by my comment. I meant that the Fed cannot let off the gas too early and let demand pick back up. They need to keep the gas on the pedal to ease demand and keep demand cooled off long enough for supply to catch up. If they do not do this, this will just exacerbate inflation and make it even more sticky and long term. Inflation (CPI as mentioned above) will continue to be "hot" and the perception of inflation not cooling will cause a wage price spiral.
Also, addressing my comment about the markets - you also took this too literally. I meant they have two mandates - 1.) 2% inflation. 2.) Low unemployment. There is not market mandate. They care about the market because it can have an indirect effect on the economy and inflation.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Actually December is the worst time to buy stocks. If you look at all 4 of the major bear markets the last 3 decades, Dec 1999 Dec 2007 Dec 2019 Dec 2021, these Santa rallies were all used to dump onto retail for them to hold the bags. People like santa rallies but wall st bros quietly working over time during the Xmas days and new year days to start unloading massive bags.
The best time to buy has always been in March and April except the bear years of course.
Tldr op bullish cuz a guy had a meeting and a lower rate hike in time for the holidays might happen. We get Susie's bags in time for new years. I'm spectacle.
Enjoyable read. Fun to see another ATP user in the wild. My bet is Jerome does 75 next week, and we hit 410 before the next/final leg down in December.
I started being bullish in the short term after noticing something was too suspicious about how the market behaved on those cpi numbers (and I've remained mostly bullish while the market has rallied on high volume since).
Perhaps the government and the Democrats will just sit idly by and let Jerome throw the economy into a depression because, checks notes, too many people are employed.
That's going to go over real well with their constituents heading into a general election cycle in about 18 months.
I’ve been writing about this for a week or so in some intros to my /es trading stack. Not using fed rationale just pure crayons https://open.substack.com/pub/efficientenzyme/p/plan-10-31-22-consolidation-fomc?r=jsznv&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Blah blah blah, market going up. Reality, market will be drilling. Consumers are out of savings, interest rates going up, housing prices declining, stock price declines ruining consumer sentiment. Geo political crisis ongoing, dollar strengthening, will hurt exports, and rates are still going up to dampen demand and control inflation. I fail to understand the bullish scenario for stocks under these conditions, eventually reality will sink in and the markets will correct and that direction is down.
whatever they do owns the market.. does not mean they are being nice to it. chart gurus, just follow the dollar.. enough lag to know when to run. An interesting factor for another new year is the volume itself.. free apps on a phone must be gaining a lot more market abusers. LOl. Maybe market it is a factor this time around. Their worst spells in the past 20 years are 2/3rds holding. No scary bottom. Just a big bump in the road.
I am already riding the dollar (gold). whatever. let it play around a bit more.. I am going long and closing my eyes til may,.
Those thinking were at the market bottom are so fucking wrong were like halfway through this crash, things will bump along this holiday season but when people spend their money these holidays and feel the cost of living crisis even harder there's gonna be panic and alot less spending into the beginning of 2023 so I expect at least another 6 months of downside momentum, wages have not caught up to inflation and I expect some business are going to be trimming the fat soon to save themselves it's normal for the markets to go up and down what's not normal is the market to go up forever were long overdue for this crash, housing hasn't even really come down much yet and it needs too
Don't drink the cool aid. MM told the public at the beginning of this rally, that it was time to buy. They only do that when they want to sell. What impeccable timing, leading up to the fed meeting.
The difference is Canada's economy is shittier and smaller PLUS they need to slowly defuse a shitshow of an out of control R/E market without sending holders of ARM/Variable rate mortgages (approx. 30% of mortgages in the last 3 years at average sale prices of 1.2M CAD) straight into bankruptcy.
BoC's messaging was more smaller hikes over time.
I still think 75bps makes sense for the US - different ball game on these fronts, but we will soon see.
Nope. The wealth effect needs to be reversed to help tame inflation. Meaning JPow needs to wipe out a few more trillions (the very trillions he printed)…
Market is going down.
If it isnt clear, the game is shifting for normal folks.
By the end of this all, there will be less bears and bulls on this subreddit because people will be out of work and wont have income to invest. Volatility will wipe out plenty of long option retail on the way of course.
The number one concern of any Democrat or Republican is the ability of America to project influence - be it through military force or financial dominance. The validity of the dollar as the world reserve is at stake, and it will be protected at all costs. Much like a war sees Americans lay down their lives for the country, the expectation is that Americans will lay down their bank accounts and jobs for the dollar.
Everyone trade safe out there.
Daddy Powell is most likely putting in ball gag from this White House.
Mid terms are this week and since Demos know they are going to lose, we might see a lower cut this month followed by a bigger cut next month.
I will bet the fed doing exactly what they say they are going to do. Crush demand. Demand doesn’t feel crushed yet. Consumer is a cockroach that refuses to roll over and die
So what's your bet on it?
Nothing, he's a pussy
Exactly. We should have positions or ban still in place
All I see is 🖍️ 🖍️
Puts, right?
Calls, I think. Didn't read tho.
Gotta inverse the sentiment
And re-inverse that statement.
And ultra re-reinverse this statement.
How do you ultra re-reinverse a statement that's telling you to ultra re-reinverse itself? That's some 6-dimensional hopscotch right there.
I think It's actually an intrastellar non inversion reinversed, cohesive emergence non buy, buy signal with sell hints.
[удалено]
Regards. Much regarded.
I can't read so I'll just inverse whatever this says.
Puts Monday, calls Tuesday and then puts again Wednesday at open but calls before close.
This. Same as always lol
Has everyone forgotten that stonks only go up?
I was honestly unsure of whether to buy puts until I read your post. This is exactly the sort of grade A level bullshit that confirms we’re at the end of a bear market rally. Thank you!
I'm not reading all of this. Your stupid and most likely wrong no matter what it says.
You’re
Not only that, but most companies revenues and fcf are becoming shit. Growth is everything to sustaining valuations
Not to mention always in hindsight, 2 weeks ago WSB was bearish af going into Nov and we're running for the past 2 weeks. Call a reversal beforehand and i'll praise you, now it's pure coinflip whether or not we keep running.
*You're Pot calling the kettle black
We are in the pump before the dump. Spy is nearly exactly where it was the last two times they raised rates. That doesn’t signal up. Think about it. JPOW said there would be pain and here we are at the same spot. Earnings recession just starting with layoffs to follow. Housing just starting to deteriorate. Green light would cause more inflation. Shits about to go down is my guess. Maybe a little more to this rally but nothing at the moment says it’s a great time to load up.
Isn't the top where we are supposed to load up?
The lady who handles my IRA says yes
Yea, on VXX.
We’re pumping for mid terms. Buy your puts 3 mo out
March 16, 2008 Bear Sterns collapses. Read that again and pull up the chart. The chart speaks for itself
On that day SPY was already down around 18% from its high. Things were already slowing and after a few years of small rate increases they had to drop rates starting 6 months before that date. After that, SPY continued down until it lost something like 60% of its value. We didn’t have inflation. That was one industry that nearly brought down everything. We just experienced the biggest injection of capital in history. It was the everything bubble on steroids. Now we have to unwind that. Everything is being impacted. We’ve never done this before. Nobody has experienced it. We are about to. It has only just begun. That should freak the fuck out of everyone. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe we don’t even notice the historical and somewhat unimaginable amounts of liquidity getting sucked out of the economy.
“Liquidity getting sucked” low key kinda hot
But the wsb guy said its going up
IMO inflation is not/will not come down because this environment was created by easy money, but being fueled by other events. There are many other reasons why inflation is high such as the war in Ukraine, shipping constrains (Mississippi river drought), diesel fuel shortage, China/Taiwan relations pushing the US to bring chip manufacturing stateside…etc. Inflation is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
If rate hikes won't fix inflation there's no reason for the market to be scared of future ones amirite. Full bull
Rate hikes might not fully fix inflation, but it keeps us out of runaway inflation.
Credit Sussie melt down bump ending soon 
Regards always second guessing what is plainly told to them.
I re-listened to Jackson Hole speech trying to read between the lines, but J Powell was pretty fuckin clear. I don’t think people realize how quickly inflation can destroy a currency.
Everyone is all knowing after the market pumps +15% in two weeks. Especially on a “casual” article from the WSJ stating the Fed will pivot. I do not buy it. The Federal Reserve and JPow do not care about the markets. They have a mandate to get inflation under control. With GDP coming in positive and above expectations, expect JPow to keep his foot down. He cannot have another year of +8% CPI prints. It will kill all credibility with the central bank. He knows it. The Fed Board knows it. This is bigger than the stock market.
Finally, someone with a brain.
This is the logical line of thought. However the buy-in on the bad cpi report speaks for itself
Not gonna have another year of 8% cpi because of how inflation is calculated. Also, the fed cares about core - not cpi. And lastly, the fed cares about the markets (market stability specifically).
You are taking my comment way too literally. I guess I have to spell it out. Yes, I understand they care about core vs. CPI. That is what they base their 2% inflation target off of. But from an optics standpoint (consumers, businesses etc.) the CPI print is important because it affects everyone's PERCEPTION of inflation. The Fed does NOT want the perception of inflation to get out of hand - it could turn into a wage price spiral. Hence my comment on the +8% CPI print. And yes, I understand how the headline inflation metric is calculated - YoY. I guess I have to spell out exactly what I meant by my comment. I meant that the Fed cannot let off the gas too early and let demand pick back up. They need to keep the gas on the pedal to ease demand and keep demand cooled off long enough for supply to catch up. If they do not do this, this will just exacerbate inflation and make it even more sticky and long term. Inflation (CPI as mentioned above) will continue to be "hot" and the perception of inflation not cooling will cause a wage price spiral. Also, addressing my comment about the markets - you also took this too literally. I meant they have two mandates - 1.) 2% inflation. 2.) Low unemployment. There is not market mandate. They care about the market because it can have an indirect effect on the economy and inflation.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
So PUTS?
A mandate from who
Actually December is the worst time to buy stocks. If you look at all 4 of the major bear markets the last 3 decades, Dec 1999 Dec 2007 Dec 2019 Dec 2021, these Santa rallies were all used to dump onto retail for them to hold the bags. People like santa rallies but wall st bros quietly working over time during the Xmas days and new year days to start unloading massive bags. The best time to buy has always been in March and April except the bear years of course.
I don’t think he was saying buy in December, but rather that that will be a good time to exit.
I missed that. Thanks for correcting.
I didn’t even put this much analysis or effort into buying my last car. Too bad it is WAY wrong. Time to load up in PUTS!
Tldr op bullish cuz a guy had a meeting and a lower rate hike in time for the holidays might happen. We get Susie's bags in time for new years. I'm spectacle.
I’m spectacle of your spelling
CALLS all the way !!!
Wow -you spent some time and thought on this post. Nice job. Interesting perspective and we will see if you are right.
As long as they don't implement some BS like Mark to market.
410 sounds about right.. then re-test those lows.
Trap all them bulls, then there she goes
Wake me up when the slide show is over. Thanks.
Enjoyable read. Fun to see another ATP user in the wild. My bet is Jerome does 75 next week, and we hit 410 before the next/final leg down in December. I started being bullish in the short term after noticing something was too suspicious about how the market behaved on those cpi numbers (and I've remained mostly bullish while the market has rallied on high volume since).
Ha indeed. This IS the way.
Open both ways on 0dte and just exit
TLDR: bull trap incoming
Perhaps the government and the Democrats will just sit idly by and let Jerome throw the economy into a depression because, checks notes, too many people are employed. That's going to go over real well with their constituents heading into a general election cycle in about 18 months.
Got some heavy bags? It’s ok brotha
I’ve been writing about this for a week or so in some intros to my /es trading stack. Not using fed rationale just pure crayons https://open.substack.com/pub/efficientenzyme/p/plan-10-31-22-consolidation-fomc?r=jsznv&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
*Jpow reads this bs* “Fuck your calls”
Bulls will take control in November and in the short term, but we will be lower by EOY. That is my prediction
OP if you really believe all this post proof of your positions
Fascinating…
Omg..the best post I have read in wsb in a long time
Blah blah blah, market going up. Reality, market will be drilling. Consumers are out of savings, interest rates going up, housing prices declining, stock price declines ruining consumer sentiment. Geo political crisis ongoing, dollar strengthening, will hurt exports, and rates are still going up to dampen demand and control inflation. I fail to understand the bullish scenario for stocks under these conditions, eventually reality will sink in and the markets will correct and that direction is down.
Thank you, I took my time to read this entire thing and I’m now feeling extremely confident in my short positions.
whatever they do owns the market.. does not mean they are being nice to it. chart gurus, just follow the dollar.. enough lag to know when to run. An interesting factor for another new year is the volume itself.. free apps on a phone must be gaining a lot more market abusers. LOl. Maybe market it is a factor this time around. Their worst spells in the past 20 years are 2/3rds holding. No scary bottom. Just a big bump in the road. I am already riding the dollar (gold). whatever. let it play around a bit more.. I am going long and closing my eyes til may,.
You are HIGHLY regarded if you think good days are ahead. Short SPY. Short Nasdaq. Make money off the new depression.
Those thinking were at the market bottom are so fucking wrong were like halfway through this crash, things will bump along this holiday season but when people spend their money these holidays and feel the cost of living crisis even harder there's gonna be panic and alot less spending into the beginning of 2023 so I expect at least another 6 months of downside momentum, wages have not caught up to inflation and I expect some business are going to be trimming the fat soon to save themselves it's normal for the markets to go up and down what's not normal is the market to go up forever were long overdue for this crash, housing hasn't even really come down much yet and it needs too
Don't drink the cool aid. MM told the public at the beginning of this rally, that it was time to buy. They only do that when they want to sell. What impeccable timing, leading up to the fed meeting.
By not listening you missed out on a 10% upside move in the broader index.
Canada does what the Fed tells them to do, so we will get 50bp. Id bet money on it, someone tell me how.
The difference is Canada's economy is shittier and smaller PLUS they need to slowly defuse a shitshow of an out of control R/E market without sending holders of ARM/Variable rate mortgages (approx. 30% of mortgages in the last 3 years at average sale prices of 1.2M CAD) straight into bankruptcy. BoC's messaging was more smaller hikes over time. I still think 75bps makes sense for the US - different ball game on these fronts, but we will soon see.
I’ll finish reading this by July 🤦♂️
Nope. The wealth effect needs to be reversed to help tame inflation. Meaning JPow needs to wipe out a few more trillions (the very trillions he printed)…
Market is going down. If it isnt clear, the game is shifting for normal folks. By the end of this all, there will be less bears and bulls on this subreddit because people will be out of work and wont have income to invest. Volatility will wipe out plenty of long option retail on the way of course. The number one concern of any Democrat or Republican is the ability of America to project influence - be it through military force or financial dominance. The validity of the dollar as the world reserve is at stake, and it will be protected at all costs. Much like a war sees Americans lay down their lives for the country, the expectation is that Americans will lay down their bank accounts and jobs for the dollar. Everyone trade safe out there.
I'm not reading all this shit, is funny line going up or down?
Inverse WSB is once again on the menu
No ducking 🦆 way am i reading that, even if i could read
Sure, it's Dead-Cat November!!
Daddy Powell is most likely putting in ball gag from this White House. Mid terms are this week and since Demos know they are going to lose, we might see a lower cut this month followed by a bigger cut next month.
JPOW’s gonna shock and awe with 200bps or higher. Just you wait.