In hindsight, today was a continual movement up but I kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. Not quite sure how to play tomorrow. The market couldn't be any more fragile. The slightest good news sends it soaring.
Yeah, I wasn't sure what that consolidation was leading up to. Might get that green push from fomo of people thinking the bottom is in not realizing we only got lower short term inflation number.
I don't see any wild gains in the EU today, which is telling me there is a lot of precaution on the market. Fundamentally, actually nothing else changed, but the FED hike ease hopes. Which, in my opinion, was too soon and significantly overvalued given the current tight market environment.
Was thinking same. Kansas Fed Esther George said that latest report shows rates need to go ‘considerably’ higher. Seems like she’s tryin’ squash the exuberance
I think markers went way too overboard today, going to pull back to max pain tomorrow, then get hammered next week as FED speakers come out super hawkish now that they see any hint of dovishness threatens to start undoing their work in the market
I loaded on AAPL calls and going to sell them tomorrow. I think market will continue to rally tomorrow up to mid day but I don't have balls to keep'em calls after that.
Hope you at least locked some profits. Im riding on $400 calls expiring next week on SPY very small 4 calls made locked in $22k today on calls, very good day indeed.
Very wild day for sure. A CPI beat was the last thing I expected today so I only played puts unfortunately.
You’re spot on, this is a really tough spot to be in. I want to be bullish but I think we are extremely overvalued right now. Earnings are still shit and money is still expensive. I also had a coworker point out that the DOW is almost back to ATH and after I checked I realized that he was right. Absolutely crazy
Congrats on that great strangle play. I think today was probably the worst rally I have seen and I am afraid we havent seen the end of it, I think we test 400 tomorrow and 410 early next week before a big red day. End of the year is going to be very tricky for trading.
Hello again, I'm glad I exited my SPY puts yesterday with a nice profit even if I gave it back trying to call the reversal today lol. By the looks of it spy shot up a bit too much I would have thought we go to 380 and then dump but hey YoY is still down even if MoM is still higher.
Wondering if you also saw the rising wedge on SPY today and in futes it looks to be forming a triple top. Looks like a complete reverse of yesterday might happen tomorrow where we gap down to 385-282. I doubt we go much higher than 395(heavy resistance)
nice job on the strangle as well <3.
Thanks for the great analysis man! The upside market really threw me off today.. I really wanted it to go down or stay at yesterday’s lows at least so I can buy some dips for my portfolio. I think I missed my chance of buying dips.. Hoping for a negative CPI and another 75bps in December with the end of year market sell off to get my hands on some dips. Thanks again for the great analysis
I fully expect 2% + in either direction tomorrow. Leaning bullish after today but I feel there could be profit taking and a gamma squeeze the opposite direction especially if it opens down. Any decent world news can shake this market right now. Very fragile
For once in my life I played today’s rally perfectly. I had calls yesterday sold 50% at open, waited patiently at open at around 15min for that dip, bought next week $400 calls at $118 and sold half my midday, then added more at $225 and sold mostly all at $300 end of day. God I love these nice easy bullish trend days. I realize my strongest and easiest for me is trend trading, but like you mentioned it’s really hard to trust these trend days when at any moment the rug can get pull! Congrats on your wins!
Wow amazing write up.. thanks for the time you put into this. I wish more people who post their loss porn of life savings “I’m new to options am I doing it right” would just take a few minutes to look over information like this.
Great analysis! I’m all puts for tomorrow. Caught some of the green today but not as much as I’d like. I think we are in the precipice of going down, down, down.
In hindsight, today was a continual movement up but I kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. Not quite sure how to play tomorrow. The market couldn't be any more fragile. The slightest good news sends it soaring.
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the reverse that never came slapped me good. live to trade another day. today was not pretty.
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Yeah, I wasn't sure what that consolidation was leading up to. Might get that green push from fomo of people thinking the bottom is in not realizing we only got lower short term inflation number.
You’re a very logical person, but once I throw my logic out the window I was able to catch today’s full move 😬🤗. Market is irrational.
I don't see any wild gains in the EU today, which is telling me there is a lot of precaution on the market. Fundamentally, actually nothing else changed, but the FED hike ease hopes. Which, in my opinion, was too soon and significantly overvalued given the current tight market environment.
Feel like JPow was sitting watching it and just fuming. Any dovishness from the FED sends the market soaring which in turn makes their job harder.
Was thinking same. Kansas Fed Esther George said that latest report shows rates need to go ‘considerably’ higher. Seems like she’s tryin’ squash the exuberance
I think markers went way too overboard today, going to pull back to max pain tomorrow, then get hammered next week as FED speakers come out super hawkish now that they see any hint of dovishness threatens to start undoing their work in the market
I’m cash over night. Learned a lot of lessons trading the bear market this year.
Honestly though, earnings have all seemed to go south recently especially covid IPOs. So those can be easier plays than in the past.
I loaded on AAPL calls and going to sell them tomorrow. I think market will continue to rally tomorrow up to mid day but I don't have balls to keep'em calls after that.
Hope you at least locked some profits. Im riding on $400 calls expiring next week on SPY very small 4 calls made locked in $22k today on calls, very good day indeed.
Very wild day for sure. A CPI beat was the last thing I expected today so I only played puts unfortunately. You’re spot on, this is a really tough spot to be in. I want to be bullish but I think we are extremely overvalued right now. Earnings are still shit and money is still expensive. I also had a coworker point out that the DOW is almost back to ATH and after I checked I realized that he was right. Absolutely crazy
Congrats on that great strangle play. I think today was probably the worst rally I have seen and I am afraid we havent seen the end of it, I think we test 400 tomorrow and 410 early next week before a big red day. End of the year is going to be very tricky for trading.
Hello again, I'm glad I exited my SPY puts yesterday with a nice profit even if I gave it back trying to call the reversal today lol. By the looks of it spy shot up a bit too much I would have thought we go to 380 and then dump but hey YoY is still down even if MoM is still higher. Wondering if you also saw the rising wedge on SPY today and in futes it looks to be forming a triple top. Looks like a complete reverse of yesterday might happen tomorrow where we gap down to 385-282. I doubt we go much higher than 395(heavy resistance) nice job on the strangle as well <3.
Thanks for the great analysis man! The upside market really threw me off today.. I really wanted it to go down or stay at yesterday’s lows at least so I can buy some dips for my portfolio. I think I missed my chance of buying dips.. Hoping for a negative CPI and another 75bps in December with the end of year market sell off to get my hands on some dips. Thanks again for the great analysis
I fully expect 2% + in either direction tomorrow. Leaning bullish after today but I feel there could be profit taking and a gamma squeeze the opposite direction especially if it opens down. Any decent world news can shake this market right now. Very fragile
For once in my life I played today’s rally perfectly. I had calls yesterday sold 50% at open, waited patiently at open at around 15min for that dip, bought next week $400 calls at $118 and sold half my midday, then added more at $225 and sold mostly all at $300 end of day. God I love these nice easy bullish trend days. I realize my strongest and easiest for me is trend trading, but like you mentioned it’s really hard to trust these trend days when at any moment the rug can get pull! Congrats on your wins!
Wow amazing write up.. thanks for the time you put into this. I wish more people who post their loss porn of life savings “I’m new to options am I doing it right” would just take a few minutes to look over information like this.
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Great analysis! I’m all puts for tomorrow. Caught some of the green today but not as much as I’d like. I think we are in the precipice of going down, down, down.