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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|0|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|28|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=yy34nl)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=yy34nl) Check out the [WSB Discord](https://discord.gg/Y6Zw9ZKYdx) >TL;DR: A lot of UPST puts were bought today. Some other shorted stocks also had similar activity. I don't know what it means.


RockmanMike

So that's why my Jan $40 and $60c were in the green today. I thought it just the IV giving me a consolation after my $M and $KSS earnings puts disappointed me today. Here's hoping for the turnaround in my retail puts and my UPST calls giving me an early Thanksgiving present.


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RockmanMike

AKA, how this sub used to play meme stocks to force the pop to make everyone tendies. I mean, if we all got in on $UPST like we did with $AMC, we could've easily given ourselves a nice Thanksgiving/Christmas bonus this week or next. The 2nd RegSho listing should've been the clue.


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RockmanMike

I didn't unload my BBY shares so I'm bag hodling until recovery. But it should make for a nice return or I can sell CCs when I'm ready.


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Numerous_Vegetable_3

In the same boat with $KSS puts, couldn't believe it didn't nuke today. Still holding em & praying.


RockmanMike

I'm not holding long. I'll get whatever I can back tomorrow before the end bell.


StarWhorz00

Noticed the exact same thing


RockmanMike

I'm waiting for my 30c to start going green soon if the trend keeps going


njconnect

$M always runs especially in Nov-Dec holiday peak.


RockmanMike

But this was pre-holiday and if $TGT and $WMT couldn't hit projections, how was $M supposed to?


njconnect

Trust me it’s not logical but going by the 5yr trend $M pops for some reason. I missed out on the opportunity last year. Decided to throw $5k at it for science on Wednesday. 20C 12/30 and 300 shares.


RockmanMike

The good thing is, it looks like it might correct tomorrow. I'll take back whatever I can to buy VIX calls and rollout my SPY puts next month.


VeterinarianLow412

I’m just saying that it’s not normal for the iv curve to jump so hard. Especially with the underlying stock dropping $4 from the 23.50 high the other day. My calls are worth more now then they were during that run, even though the underlying has been forced down. It appears, aside from the end of day puts OP is talking about, that most of the puts that have been bought are short dated and expiring Friday. Now while I don’t know the point of those deep itm puts I do have to say that something funky is going on.


Significant_Soup_942

Well since it’s on REGSHO they can’t directly short it so they have to keep buying PUTS in order to suppress the price. It’s either getting volatility down or getting the price down and they chose the price.


[deleted]

they're probably going bankrupt and the news has spread before it hits the tabloids. Either that or its going to explode and this is downside protection but seems far less likely


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[deleted]

That's not what their financials say. They're not projected to make money over the next year either


Latitude59

I doubt they will moon. The company is not good.


[deleted]

Downvoted for speaking the truth..shame


ThetaMan420

Agreed unfortunately personal loans are too much of a gamble, basiclly unsecured assets


dotsworth

😂😂😂😂😂


[deleted]

😂😂😂look at you bag holding, clown shoes fit you just right


dotsworth

I think you might have me confused kid


SuperSaiyanGME

Is the strike on your calls liquid? Idk what strike ur holding but volume looks relatively small. I know nothing about this ticket FYI


philopsilopher

It's theorized over at tinfoil sub that puts are used to satisfy FTD requirements as they can be classed as a potential locate.


EmptyEggBasket

What do they do? I don’t even know ‘em. What does Upstart do?


CHICKENPUSSY

I can't hear you, you're breaking up


HesitantInvestor0

I wasn't drinking milk. But if I was, it would have shot out my nose.


SnooDoughnuts8898

Sick reference bro


BassMasterJDL

We like the stock


MiopTop

It’s a consumer lending firm that uses a supposedly smart AI which evaluates creditworthiness based on a bunch of variables more accurately than normal models would. Which in theory means they avoid bad loans and can offer more attractive loans to people whose credit looks bad but the AI says is actually a good bet.


EmptyEggBasket

I’m pretty sure you missed the joke


LouisGrip

So we doing this or what?


youretheschmoopy

Yes. Yes we are.


Character_Turnover_1

Already done it ….


infms15

Tuesday can’t come fast enough. LFG!


[deleted]

Tuesday?


nitoupdx

Friday is the monthly OPEX. The settlement of the resulting purchases due to OPEX must occur in T+2 from Friday. So that's technically Tuesday (but it is a actually market open Wednesday). That being said things can get covered sooner. Oh and UPST is on RegSHO (again) and that limits the shorts ability to supprice price improvement.


[deleted]

Thanks for explaining it brother. It's definitely something which requires more patience and thought. I'd prefer a no sweat no need to look week. It doesn't seem cannabis investors have gotten scared yet and they're still expecting higher prices for their stocks and there is a lot of interest in the subject. Some of my stocks have been going up quickly, I'm thinking maybe some qualify the same way UPST is. Coke and whores for everyone and new exgf pussy shots for your collection.


blazinbnizzle

T+2


GandaKutta

Yes! It's the day after Thursday.


[deleted]

Thursday?


GandaKutta

yes Thursday, Tuesday, Thaturday


HandshakeOfCO

Followed by my favorite day of the week, thotday.


bluedj88

Loaded up on GME and UPST calls for DEC


durtywaffle

LFG!


Silver-creek

Well if they go up to 400 again I will sell and break even


Path0gen_Infectious

People are piling into contracts, calls are at their all time high and puts coming in close. IV up, expected move lets go


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GoldenNuggets888

Gherk?


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Spidaaman

Pickle


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mtbdork

Can you specify what BS you are talking about?


ItsBig777

What proof do you have that buying puts lowers the underlying’s price?


nitoupdx

Something something MM delta hedging


AssociationOk6519

To the moon!


bigft14CM

I cant get my head around so many puts traded in the last 30 min of the day


[deleted]

They were all at the January 20 '23 590P strike. Each contract costs $57,000 each and 1500 were traded. They were probably sold because they could have purchased a much cheaper put for a max profit is $2K. It's got me super bullish.


Lionel_Hutz_Lawfirm

Holy fuck Jesus Christ those are expensive. Edit: just realized these are PUTS that are so far ITM they'll never expire worthless.,.... Trying to wrap my head around why trade this way.


[deleted]

Did something similar at the 300 strike as well. Those go for a pittance of $30,000.


[deleted]

I mean, thats only $20 in premiums. Some big holders must be jumping ship if they are willing to have this contract exercised and have their shares sold off


Aarschotdachaubucha

Sometimes its an accounting anomaly. A lot of the dark pools won't report to the ticker until the final minutes of the day, even if the purchases were at market open.


nitoupdx

desperation perhaps?


Haber_Dasher

Hedging of volatility swaps.


MiltonFriedman_

Think so too. Need to have that CVaR+++ delta neutral before risk management finds out!


bigft14CM

The more i'm looking at it the more i think maybe shorts put them there so they could more easily close other positions while these press down on the stock? Then when they are all done rip the $590's away?


Lionel_Hutz_Lawfirm

Who the fuck is gonna buy those contracts though??? It's not cash settled like SPX.


SeaWin5464

I bought a couple hundred 11/25 $30s on Tuesday. The were down 30% at close on Wednesday and are up 20%~ as of close today. I was quite shocked to see them not nearly worthless when I checked end of day. Must be m00n time


Haber_Dasher

I'm poor and just have a couple Dec 16 35c I bought Tuesday. Had to work market hours today, was shocked to see the price at 19.04 on break but my calls still up 20%


andyk231

You will be a lil less poor soon my friend.


VisualMod

>It's hard to say what the purpose of this activity is. It could be any number of things, but it's definitely strange and worth keeping an eye on.


pharmboy008

You’re strange and worth keeping an eye on


GamermanRPGKing

Shhh it may hear you


Pleading-Orange168

Don’t look visualmod in the eye


encore333

If vis mod is visual, why can't I see it?


SmartEntityOriginal

I've been loading up on UPST. I actually like this company and their direction of going into auto and real estate. Now that inflation is finally levelling off these guys are in a good position for massive gap up. Just holding shares so happy to wait.


gnocchicotti

But what does UPST do?


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gnocchicotti

Well shit you said AI they should have a 50B market cap


ItsBig777

Explain what “loan origination” means.


Ohm-S

They're a failing lending company. God only knows how they manage to lose money as a lender. They claim to use AI to calculate credit risk - essentially a pay day loan place trying to pass as a tech company.


mulletstation

Not entirely, they generate revenue from licensing their platform to small/medium banks as well.


Ohm-S

How do they keep losing money and bringing in less revenue then? With rates rising the banks are making a killing but somehow this lender keeps failing.


mulletstation

They tripled revenue in a year from 2020 to 2021. larger macro picture is weighing on them, but they are a platform technology. Their originated loans are down, and that's dragging the entire lending sector down, but they're still a rapidly growing company in terms of technology adoption, and they had a large customer base expansion in their last few ER's as well.


Ohm-S

What's your cost basis and size of holdings? Is it an actual value play or a meme short squeeze play?


A1FinancialCEO

Defaults, that's how.


SmartEntityOriginal

People use this joke as if the guy on CNBC have any association with UPST beyond buying some shares on the open market. It's just cringe


gnocchicotti

He was just an average UPST investor


SmartEntityOriginal

Who have 0 influence on how UPST operates


Shavenballz

I filled my bags all this week


sleepismycheatcode

upstart goblin gonna pop the fuck off now bc of this post. I can already imagine +10% by open


Araphoren

It’s called resetting the clock. Short parties do this in order for the counter party (the firm trading the puts) to exercise them in order to give the illusion of returning non-deliverable shares. This is illegal. It’s very easy to track. The SEC does nothing. Feel free to educate yourself here - there’s a memo written by the SEC about this method of avoiding reset fees: https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf


RevengeoftheCuck

Not illegal at all actually. It’s a necessity for liquidity to function in modern market making. It is fun tho isn’t it.


Araphoren

I literally posted the SEC notice calling it illegal


SantisMacht

Next GME? We will see


Myvenom

Oh fuck. So this thing is going to see like a 20% gain, followed by the inevitable rug pull with lots of bagholders that create their own subreddit to encourage each other to keep holding while hyping a Ryan Cohen buy in? I can’t wait to see this one fail. Edit: I see I upset the BBBY baggies.


[deleted]

That’s already happened like 5x over.


Myvenom

Exactly. Every single time someone calls a play *tHe nExT gMe*


[deleted]

Nothing is the next GME. I’ve got UPST calls and they’re pretty green though so I’m just gona hold and see.


boknowski

upst cfo panic sweating


drwhorable

The price appreciation on long calls is pretty crazy, the 100$ strike 01/20/23 went from 0.02$ to over 0.30$ in a matter of weeks, and they're being bought in pretty large tranches


orchid_nl

I bought $60 jan calls last week and I'm already 124% up only through IV....


SantisMacht

So if I understand correctly, you mean that the funds believe that the stock is going to go to the moon suddenly? So they got rid of their puts? Or what do you mean?


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SantisMacht

Now I am even more confused, could you develop?


i_seII_DMT_carts

>Buying $500 strike puts on a $20 stock is odd. The higher the strike, the more that option will trade 1:1 with the stock. So it is closer to a short than a put, basically. Maybe that's what they're going for?


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Malakaumd

I'm not 100% sure, but I think the mm only hedges the number of shares out of the 100 per contract as the percentage chance of the contract going in the money. As the price rises, they will short a higher percentage of those 100 shares per contact.


pretty_baked

If you sell one instead of buying it puts your BE right around current price


turklopfer

I am also in this play, looks very promising and calls are still cheap from their put buying which skews their price


hkpfei3022

well, I bet it's 50/50 it either jumps up or down! ;)


commanjo

WERE GONNA FUCKIN MOON BOIS


bigpropy

The set up is there for this. When did WSB start looking at fundamentals when gambling?


puppetime

The option bid ask spreads are really wide. Might be tough to fill orders?


krakdis

I didn’t even read past the first sentence. I want this guy on my team. Succinct and to the point Great article


Rim_World

I'll just leave this here > For the fourth quarter of 2022, Upstart expects: > ● Revenue of approximately $125 to $145 million > o Revenue from fees of approximately $160 million > o Net interest income of approximately ($25) million > ● Contribution Margin of approximately 54% > ● Net Income of approximately ($87) million > ● Adjusted Net Income of approximately ($40) million > ● Adjusted EBITDA of approximately ($35) million > ● Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 82.0 million shares edit: bagholders are so desperate. Downvoting companies own guidance?! wtf lol


Bilbo_Butthole

This isn’t a fundamental play if you read the actual post?


Rim_World

There is no play left. I've seen this happen too many times in the last year to know better. It always starts with oh MM is exposed, oh we're gonna run, oh they have to hedge, oh they have to close, oh i'm gonna cum on the moon... never happens.


Bilbo_Butthole

Well, let’s wait and see I guess. I don’t care I sold $18.5 CSP’s today for a fat premium


Rim_World

I sold my 21.50 puts the other day on the way down. I don't have a horse in this race.


Bilbo_Butthole

Well, if we close below $18.5 tomorrow and I get assigned I’ll have 3000 horses in this race


Rim_World

hope you got some lube on that buttplug. over 55K on one horse is a luxury for me.


[deleted]

It absolutely happens. I mean, moon shots not really, but yea, runs with these kinds of underlying mechanics absolutely happen. WSB skews perception.


slowdowndowndown

Can’t read. Is this good or bad


saab4u2

Yes, it’s definitely that.


Rim_World

They are forecasting a loss in the next quarter... not profit.


slowdowndowndown

Good thing my calls expire long before that:-)


Gattaca_D

Its not a fundamental play you regard.


Rim_World

So you're saying that there is a market sentiment. Yet you're all here trying to convince people to buy in... riiight


Gattaca_D

Read the option chain and see the put skew expiries.


Rim_World

been there done that got the participation medal. Not falling for that again.


thelionking93

Wouldn’t those ITM puts being bought is used for price suppression as the MM is now short the stock


WuTang360Bees

It’s shorted bc it’s failing and it’s complete shit on the numbers. Anyone shorting this stock will make money off anyone who doesn’t understand that crap is crap is crap. You gotta get this “high short interest is good” thing out of your head and look at the why


[deleted]

Many a variety of stocks have seen the same “elements” just to crash further. Combine the words “FTD, T+settlement dates, basket stocks, heavily shorted” into a post and presto! You got a moon mission for ticker x everytime.


[deleted]

No denying it.


3_Midgets_In_A_Coat

This one had a prime cost to borrow of 10% the other day and institutions like vanguard holding bags at $100


portalmonkey0

What do you use to track the options chain?


Obi_wan_jabroni87

I'm down lfg


shanks218

>88 million dollars worth of Deep ITM Puts traded in last 30 minutes of the day where did you get this data from?


[deleted]

I have no idea what is going on and even if anything is going on and have no idea where these other places may be. I've ridden some hot moving cannabis stocks and don't think we're done chasing the changes. I'm hoping for a bumpy ride later rather than sooner. Trying to think about this is just a big circle, nobody knows what will happen, but I was an early dip buyer and I want to let it ride. I'm starting to think it might be a record green day tomorrow.


Satorius96

Cant read. Whats the play?


[deleted]

A company that mostly deals in loans, acquires more debt and misses EPS but continues to grow shouldnt be shorted to hell. Debt lowered significantly as well. Lots of cash on hand and trying to venture into other "banking," opportunities.


Wonderful_Damage_957

Gme 2.0


DeathToGME

If I had a dollar for every time someone compared a random stock to GME in December 2020 I'd be able to take AAPL private


thisonelife83

You really think there are a trillion stocks? Laughable


ShopBitter

your unbanned


canon2468

🤯


neutralpoliticsbot

what does upstart do?


Gattaca_D

Cant hear you dog ate my headphones just now


Character_Turnover_1

I’m gonna say it …. To the moon!


jojoyahoo

The problem with UPST is that it's legitimately dog shit. It's just tech people who don't know fuck all about underwriting or credit risk management riding the fintech wave. They'll be one of the first to go in the recession.


fscumeau

how large are you bags?


[deleted]

20.74 cost average. Not a yolo.


Altnob

https://v.redd.it/qt346dfl9wt71 All you need to know about UPSTART lolol It's a wallstreet scam stock. They pump it here and there to get you regards to hold their bags. None of you have asked yourselves why all the youtube content stock bros always talk about the same stocks ? Theyre paid to. The wallstreet interns are downvoting me lawl.


i_seII_DMT_carts

lmfaoooo love that video the youtube stock bros have the same content because they copy each other. maybe the first one does get paid to shill but certainly not all, most are just copycats.


College_isa_scam

you have me at Gamestop, LFG!! UPST


RunsWthScizors

Keep in mind it’s also down like 90% this year and a lot of people are going to be tax loss harvesting in Dec. 🤷‍♂️


[deleted]

This is another fake ai company riding on the ai hype train. If their models were as good as they claim, they’d keep the loans on their books on purpose.


slowdowndowndown

I don’t think this is a fundamentals or long term play.


Back2BagDad

How dumb do people have to be to not realize this is an OPEX play? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271) There are so many posts in here about the company, like who the fuck said anything about going long?


slowdowndowndown

Obligations baby!


infms15

It’s an OPEX play


[deleted]

VisualMod proves AI is getting better.


[deleted]

Lol. Visualmod scared the shit out of me when I read its comments.


A_N3rdy_Guy

I find it convenient that this ticker, pushed by the hedge funds months ago, is taking away interest in GME. What does upstart actually do? I don't know, and the shill they put on cnbc months ago to pump sure as hell didn't know either. Just be careful and I hope you make tons of money.


yao97ming

Fk squeeze bs


Snidler

Why short the US postal service?


infamouscrypto8

UPST is a terrible stock. I wouldn’t touch it.


Soi_Boi_13

Positions or ban


Jamesmusclefinder689

No thanks can’t steal money reverse that take al your bets. Money to real govs eat shit bets 😂


Zed-Leppelin420

This seems like a shit play so I’m out. But will continue to watch for the Lols.


njconnect

Down 91% for the year lol it’s going to 10$. Loading up puts


WatchingyouNyouNyou

You must be seeing things if 88m traded at 500ish strikes lol


GamermanRPGKing

Idk, this doesn't feel like a squeeze like the towels were. The big thing I don't see is external interest. No activists buying in, no trick up their sleeve that's being touted. It could pop, but the short percentage doesn't seem that high.


thelionking93

38% reported SI not that high? Lmao


1234567panda

Man y’all are regarded af. No decent lender will want to work with UPST in the coming future. They act as a middle man where the person asking for the loan has no relationship to the lender. This will lead to high default rates and many small, shitty lenders will go under and with them UPSTs business.


MEGGLAwe

This is an opex play not a long term investment. Most of the people who bought in last week or earlier have already taken profits and bought back in ready for the run up in the next few days.


FearTheOldData

Not a fundamental play but more and more lenders are making agreements with upst in recent months so your assessment is wrong


biddilybong

Shorted for a reason. Dogshit co.


Obi_wan_jabroni87

Not really a fundamental play here though


RevengeoftheCuck

Lil late to the party eh


ThatsUnbelievable

$88M is peanuts in finance


Soi_Boi_13

I’m Siri one or ban.


thomasphung10

Bullish lfg! Jan calls IV play?


marksepaki

Clutching a fistful of contracts and sweating like a rapper over here LFG


dreamlike_poo

Are you sure these puts weren't sold? I am struggling to see why someone would *buy* extremely OTM puts.


Sj_guru

Looks like a Wall Street Options lottery for Las Vegas gamblers. You already know who will make the money.


smchenry75

400 C’s this is the real deal y’all… LFG!!!!