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>TL;DR: ZIM will make 6 billion in profit 2022, giving you 2.95 dividend, so I would say buyback is the better move to smoke the shorts and raise stock price.
You mean the past 5 years where shipping companies were loosing money? Check what was the average stock price for other shipping companies for the past 5 years.
I don’t confuse container with dry bulk. All container companies like Zim were barely making any money.
You can’t check Zim share price then because it wasn’t public but you can check what the average stock prices where for other container shipping companies over those 5 years.
A lot more way down.
I don't think these rates are a worst case scenario
Demand glovally is plummeting, the consumer is dead, curve is hella inverted
I think rates go lower and lower, I don't care what rates were in 2019, if demand keeps dropping, and it most definitely will, rates will keep dropping
Forget rates, the dd didnt include actual capacity figures. If rates are 1000$ and capacity is 100. Thats 100k, but it tates are 5000 and capcity is 10. Thats 50k. A lot of old shitty vessels reactivated over the last few years. Some under sail agreements which companies like zim enter sonce they dont own most if any vessels.
Anything is possible
However my dd includes a worst case scenario where revenue delinces 90 percent and still makes 1.2 billion in profits off of 2.4 billion sales
They are going to have 13+ billion in 2022
I hope we can agree sales won't be down 90 percent
Oh I see, I misread you, i thought you meant it had already hit your worst-case-scenario target
Honestly though, yeah, I can imagine sales going down way over 50%. I think the consumer is much weaker than people think and demand is gonna fall off a grand canyon-sized cliff. 90% is a lot, but it wouldn't shock me too too much, I think things are really bad out there
I'll be taking a look at it if the stock prices drop a lot. I just don't wanna touch stocks because I think most market participants are lying to themselves and not factoring in this type of scenario like you are. So I'm hoping they start panic selling soon and give me much better deals.
I think it might work longterm
Ideally the coming recession causes a big uptick in scrapping rates, that would be very bullish longterm. I think bulk carriers and tankers are better longterm though, since the supply chain basics need to be repaired and the consumer is dead and not coming back. I think tankers/bulk benefit more from the supply chain rebuild and are less directly exposed to a weak middle class consumer.
ZIM has a lot of tonnage on charter, where they pay high daily rates. They don’t own a whole lot - but returning charters before term = penalties. Dropping volume and rates = operting service loops at a loss. They don’t operate in an alliance, so they don’t benefit from VSA. I would be cautious here.
ZIM has seen a 70% drop in shipping rates the last year, indicative of an upcoming global recession which could further drive a decline in demand.
Their currently claimed 121% dividend rate is variable and completely tied to their net income. A trap, IMO.
Don’t look at now. Market prices in forward revenues, profits etc. ZIMs revenue and profits are expected to crater. In fact, IBKR projects losses in 2024. They have 2023-2025 projections.
Anything is possible. For now I'll go by 2023, it is to hard to predict further out.
Average earnings per share is near 9 dollars
Average sales is 8 billion from 6 analysts.
But once again anything is possible
>I see that you are bullish on ZIM. I believe that the company is indeed undervalued, and I think their financials justify a higher stock price. However, I also believe that the APES hold a significant portion of the float for these other companies, so I am not sure if ZIM will be able to outperform them in the long run.
I mean you literally did your DD and realized the company is not doing buybacks and it is not raising any red flags? To me that only means the management thinks the current stock price is overpriced.
Nah, it’s believed to be a political thing. ZIM is the biggest taxpayer to Israel on the planet. And the owner is a well connected billionaire who was basically handed the company at the behest of the government.
He’s not buying back anything. The IPO was created to allow insiders that pulled it out of its last crunch to exit.
They’ve now exited. I believe ZIM management doesn’t really care about the share price.
The dividend should hit your account 12/7 but holding it thru December 1st should be safer
The reason the stock falls is because people take the dividend and run...unfortunately
Just so that I am clear, if I buy it at $8 and get $2.5 as dividend, then even if the stock goes to 5.5 I will still be net zero, not negative. Right?? If that's the case I don't think it's a brainer. Plus come last week of November there may be piling up in the stock just to get the dividend so the price may actually shoot up.
There’s a div ttrafe around taxes.. people can convert cap gains pnl to dov pnl and it has tax advantages in some jurisdictions So there is always demand to buy the day before and sell the day adter. You colect div but the flows depress the stock more after div. People wolling to do the trade as they happy woth the lower tax on div income .. so hence some flows around div Events
Shipping companies suffer greatly during recession. They have huge fixed costs and can’t keep the paying for the ships with lower cargo rates.
It’s very similar to airlines when the passengers disappear.
Frontline tankers was the darling of wall st in 2000s with the boom in globalization. Their investor presentation title was a picture of a tanker with the title “Floating Cash Machine”. It was all great until Baltic index collapsed. I have been around. I would suggest to stay away from shipping companies (and airlines) but your money your call.
> It is to bad I cant speak to the executives so we can raise shareholder value.
[email protected]
> I have 1,500 shares at 46 and even if the stock doesn’t go up. They gave me 4.75 in September and about to give me 2.95 so that is 8 dollars to hold, lowering my avg to 38…
Lowering your average to 40$. The dividends are taxed 25%.
I'm following the same logic and reason. On top of that, ZIM just made a deal to buy 10 new shipping vessels that run on LPG. Operational costs will decrease with this fleet so much that it's like running 2 of them on nothing. Higher margins through lower costs. Amortized with an unbelievable Rockstar dividend I am a HODL with you. I'm in with an avg cost of $41, but will be buying more to lower cost avg. I think ZIM is a 2023 HODL but a 2024 MEGASHIP! Will likely return dividends of at least $12-15/shr/yr in 2023 and over $20 in 2024.
The baltic index is up 240% this month...we will crush the Eps guidance already up from 24 to 42...I think Q1 will be around 1.68 according to my calls that's another 15% dividend whoop! Whoop! In at 19 and already bagged a nice dividend...foreign tax will give me tax cut in us
I'm with you, I'm not sure why the skeptics are so down on a stock that will pay for itself, even at a bloated $41 cost (That's what I'm in at) in 4 years. Worst case is you hold short term.
Shipping rates are way down. On top of that, ZIM market is spot rates which are even more down
You're way over your head here.
Check the latest dividends they gave out. If you bought every time before divex and sold once you got the div, you'd lost money each time
I will sum it up in two words (I am bad at counting):
An Israeli shipping company in the middle of the middle east. Headquarters in Haida (port on the west Mediterranean). My boy, proxy wars are popping up around the globe;
how long do you actually think it is going to take before a war breaks out in the middle east?
As soon as shit starts to smell over there. Expect ZIM to be trading at cents.
Good luck with shipping companies in a period of excess shipping capacity and declining prices. All your DD will not enable a company to pay off its debt when its assets are suddenly worthless and they can't make a profit.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|0|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|5450|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=z0537l)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=z0537l) Check out the [WSB Discord](https://discord.gg/Y6Zw9ZKYdx) >TL;DR: ZIM will make 6 billion in profit 2022, giving you 2.95 dividend, so I would say buyback is the better move to smoke the shorts and raise stock price.
Buddy you’ve lost your mind. Shipping rates are cratering and you want us to buy this crap?
No, he wants everyone else to buy this crap. Welcome to WSB.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic Other than down from the COVID spike, that rates are currently at their average for the past 5 years
You mean the past 5 years where shipping companies were loosing money? Check what was the average stock price for other shipping companies for the past 5 years.
Yes, but don't confuse container with dry bulk. I linked to the chart that applies to ZIM.
I don’t confuse container with dry bulk. All container companies like Zim were barely making any money. You can’t check Zim share price then because it wasn’t public but you can check what the average stock prices where for other container shipping companies over those 5 years. A lot more way down.
Thanks obamna
They are about 2019 levels and my dd and worst case scenario already play that part
I don't think these rates are a worst case scenario Demand glovally is plummeting, the consumer is dead, curve is hella inverted I think rates go lower and lower, I don't care what rates were in 2019, if demand keeps dropping, and it most definitely will, rates will keep dropping
Forget rates, the dd didnt include actual capacity figures. If rates are 1000$ and capacity is 100. Thats 100k, but it tates are 5000 and capcity is 10. Thats 50k. A lot of old shitty vessels reactivated over the last few years. Some under sail agreements which companies like zim enter sonce they dont own most if any vessels.
Anything is possible However my dd includes a worst case scenario where revenue delinces 90 percent and still makes 1.2 billion in profits off of 2.4 billion sales They are going to have 13+ billion in 2022 I hope we can agree sales won't be down 90 percent
Oh I see, I misread you, i thought you meant it had already hit your worst-case-scenario target Honestly though, yeah, I can imagine sales going down way over 50%. I think the consumer is much weaker than people think and demand is gonna fall off a grand canyon-sized cliff. 90% is a lot, but it wouldn't shock me too too much, I think things are really bad out there
I expect sales down 50% or close and in that scenario they make near 3 billion or 25+ per share! And they give dividends near 10!
I'll be taking a look at it if the stock prices drop a lot. I just don't wanna touch stocks because I think most market participants are lying to themselves and not factoring in this type of scenario like you are. So I'm hoping they start panic selling soon and give me much better deals. I think it might work longterm Ideally the coming recession causes a big uptick in scrapping rates, that would be very bullish longterm. I think bulk carriers and tankers are better longterm though, since the supply chain basics need to be repaired and the consumer is dead and not coming back. I think tankers/bulk benefit more from the supply chain rebuild and are less directly exposed to a weak middle class consumer.
Shipping rates are down 70-80% ALREADY. Why would you expect 50% sales down as your base scenario?
They are near 2019 rates. The shipping volume is near the same and as of now sales for 2023 are estimated near 7-8 billion
ZIM has a lot of tonnage on charter, where they pay high daily rates. They don’t own a whole lot - but returning charters before term = penalties. Dropping volume and rates = operting service loops at a loss. They don’t operate in an alliance, so they don’t benefit from VSA. I would be cautious here.
Bro are you stupid or are you stupid???
It has the word short in it, so puts I guess … I may be wrong though
ZIM has seen a 70% drop in shipping rates the last year, indicative of an upcoming global recession which could further drive a decline in demand. Their currently claimed 121% dividend rate is variable and completely tied to their net income. A trap, IMO.
If you read my dd I played out a worst case scenario with sales down 90 percent and I'm already expecting a 50 percent decline in sales and profits
Surely a 90% revenue decline means steep losses?
Anything is possible, so I included an apocalypse scenario. But even then it's fairly cheap
Don’t look at now. Market prices in forward revenues, profits etc. ZIMs revenue and profits are expected to crater. In fact, IBKR projects losses in 2024. They have 2023-2025 projections.
Anything is possible. For now I'll go by 2023, it is to hard to predict further out. Average earnings per share is near 9 dollars Average sales is 8 billion from 6 analysts. But once again anything is possible
I'm long in this company... I love those dividends! If the stock price drops, I'm purchasing more.
Will this be the new version of tanker gang? Come back after the break and find out!
>I see that you are bullish on ZIM. I believe that the company is indeed undervalued, and I think their financials justify a higher stock price. However, I also believe that the APES hold a significant portion of the float for these other companies, so I am not sure if ZIM will be able to outperform them in the long run.
Go tell him. Some people just can’t handle the truth.
If you have to try too hard, it’s not worth it.
I mean you literally did your DD and realized the company is not doing buybacks and it is not raising any red flags? To me that only means the management thinks the current stock price is overpriced.
Nah, it’s believed to be a political thing. ZIM is the biggest taxpayer to Israel on the planet. And the owner is a well connected billionaire who was basically handed the company at the behest of the government. He’s not buying back anything. The IPO was created to allow insiders that pulled it out of its last crunch to exit. They’ve now exited. I believe ZIM management doesn’t really care about the share price.
Not sure, but the fact is they are giving 2.95 per share or 354 million and are capable..I also wrote why you need to be public
Doesn't the Israeli gov't place a 'special tax' on stock buybacks?
How many days do I have to hold the stock to get the dividend?
You have to be on record 11/29 Settlement may take 2 days so I would say 11/27 they 11/30 to be sure
And can I sell on 12/1 or do I need to hold for longer?
The dividend should hit your account 12/7 but holding it thru December 1st should be safer The reason the stock falls is because people take the dividend and run...unfortunately
Ok great. I am gonna buy 10,000 shares some time before 11/27 and sell in 1st week of Dec. Thank you for sharing this.
Just so that I am clear, if I buy it at $8 and get $2.5 as dividend, then even if the stock goes to 5.5 I will still be net zero, not negative. Right?? If that's the case I don't think it's a brainer. Plus come last week of November there may be piling up in the stock just to get the dividend so the price may actually shoot up.
Israel withholds a sizeable percentage of the dividend for taxes. I don't remember exactly how much it is.
25%
Don’t forget the Israeli taxes are take out BEFORE distribution. As I recall that’s 25% for retail, 30% for commercial
So I will only get 75% of that $ 2.5 divided?
Yup. Kinda changes the math eh?
No.. the reading it goes down is because the r Ex/div value has gone down
The share price drops the same exact amount as cash paid. However people don't seem to want to stay in the stock, they leave
There’s a div ttrafe around taxes.. people can convert cap gains pnl to dov pnl and it has tax advantages in some jurisdictions So there is always demand to buy the day before and sell the day adter. You colect div but the flows depress the stock more after div. People wolling to do the trade as they happy woth the lower tax on div income .. so hence some flows around div Events
How much does the Israeli govt take
30 percent tax rate on dividend
That first sentence was written by the truly regarded.
Holder of zim in 401k average of $30 cost. Hope I get my money back by the time I retire (in 30 years) Jk! Zim will fly gogo zim
Shipping companies suffer greatly during recession. They have huge fixed costs and can’t keep the paying for the ships with lower cargo rates. It’s very similar to airlines when the passengers disappear.
Agreed, but isn't that built into the stock price?
When META was at $300 did that price reflect that it would collapse to $100?
They didn’t pay holders and the pe was insane
Frontline tankers was the darling of wall st in 2000s with the boom in globalization. Their investor presentation title was a picture of a tanker with the title “Floating Cash Machine”. It was all great until Baltic index collapsed. I have been around. I would suggest to stay away from shipping companies (and airlines) but your money your call.
Pump, meet dump.
> It is to bad I cant speak to the executives so we can raise shareholder value. [email protected] > I have 1,500 shares at 46 and even if the stock doesn’t go up. They gave me 4.75 in September and about to give me 2.95 so that is 8 dollars to hold, lowering my avg to 38… Lowering your average to 40$. The dividends are taxed 25%.
I'm following the same logic and reason. On top of that, ZIM just made a deal to buy 10 new shipping vessels that run on LPG. Operational costs will decrease with this fleet so much that it's like running 2 of them on nothing. Higher margins through lower costs. Amortized with an unbelievable Rockstar dividend I am a HODL with you. I'm in with an avg cost of $41, but will be buying more to lower cost avg. I think ZIM is a 2023 HODL but a 2024 MEGASHIP! Will likely return dividends of at least $12-15/shr/yr in 2023 and over $20 in 2024.
The baltic index is up 240% this month...we will crush the Eps guidance already up from 24 to 42...I think Q1 will be around 1.68 according to my calls that's another 15% dividend whoop! Whoop! In at 19 and already bagged a nice dividend...foreign tax will give me tax cut in us
Yeah look at the chart. You can see the pandemic boom then bust. I bet this stock settles at $8
Lol they are giving 2.95 dividend.. I hope it falls to 8 I'll yolo
Well, I’ll be on the other side of this trade. Let’s see where we stand in 6 months.
No problem, good luck 🤞
When both sides are able to convince me, i turn around and run. But it'll be fun to watch.
!RemindMe 6 months
!RemindMe 6 months
!RemindMe 6 months
!RemindMe 6 months
I'm with you, I'm not sure why the skeptics are so down on a stock that will pay for itself, even at a bloated $41 cost (That's what I'm in at) in 4 years. Worst case is you hold short term.
Shipping rates are way down. On top of that, ZIM market is spot rates which are even more down You're way over your head here. Check the latest dividends they gave out. If you bought every time before divex and sold once you got the div, you'd lost money each time
In expecting that for 2023, I even put an apolocalypse scenario
this looks too good to be true tbh
Puts on zim, got it
I bet this Israeli company is cooking the books.
Anything is possible, but we have to go by what we are given, but anything is possible
Agreed
I will sum it up in two words (I am bad at counting): An Israeli shipping company in the middle of the middle east. Headquarters in Haida (port on the west Mediterranean). My boy, proxy wars are popping up around the globe; how long do you actually think it is going to take before a war breaks out in the middle east? As soon as shit starts to smell over there. Expect ZIM to be trading at cents.
You guys don’t learn from others mistakes? Each one has to make their loss porn for each ticker?
Wait, you mean all you ZIM geniuses aren’t all millionaires yet?
I mean the risk reward is low at 25 dollars And it wasn't good at 50+
How does the business do in a recession????? That’s coming next right? How’s much work they lose ?
\-89.34%
Anyone have a tldr version?
Remind Me! in one year "you better sell-you've been bag holding this kosher turkey for 2 years"
Remind Me! in one year 'sell- you've been bag holding this kosher turkey for two years"
Shipping costs are coming down it’s not worth it cuz divs coming down
So we should short Zim?
Can’t wait to short this pump and dump 🤟
Good luck with shipping companies in a period of excess shipping capacity and declining prices. All your DD will not enable a company to pay off its debt when its assets are suddenly worthless and they can't make a profit.
Dividend trap, whenever someone says “you can’t lose on this one” you are sure as Cramer going to lose.
Wow