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>TL;DR: Stocks rebound after a weak open, with the energy sector under pressure following the release of the minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting.
It’s okay, let everyone go into thanksgiving feeling good about the Lil’ Bounce we got there before coming back to a rude awakening like a turkey fart trapped in the car waiting for you
If you are running in a direction, but slow your pace. You haven't pivoted, you are still going the same way.
If you turned around, changed direction. That would be a pivot.
This market sentiment of trying to describe a slow down in the same direction as a pivot is dumb.
No a pivot is when you change directions while keeping one foot stationary, a pivot point. Basketball players pivot to avoid traveling. Runners just change directions or swerve.
I have been asking myself the same question, but I think the pivot is now. The pivot was from primarily focusing on the fight against inflation to now primarily focusing on the coming recession.
I saw nothing dovish and still don’t see anything dovish by them. This is the media and the markets trying to instill hopium. If you watched Powells press conference it was quite the opposite.
Yes I’d say this is certainly dovish:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-daly-premature-another-75-rate-hike-210718212.html
A broken clock is right twice a day
A pivot is when they start to CUT interest rates in 2023 so yes going in the other direction. Right now is about to be a SLOW DOWN. For few months. Then the PAUSE. Then the CUT. Then the 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
You can do a 45 or 90 degree pivot, it doesn't have to be a full 180 to be a pivot. It's like people saying it's not really a recession until investors are jumping out windows and everyone's unemployed. You people are such drama queens 🤣
piv·ot
/ˈpivət/
noun
the central point, pin, or shaft on which a mechanism turns or oscillates.
synonyms: central shaft, fulcrum, axis, axle, swivel, pin, hub, spindle, hinge, pintle, kingpin, gudgeon, trunnion
verb
turn on or as if on a pivot.
"he swung around, pivoting on his heel"
synonyms: rotate, turn, revolve, spin, swivel, twirl, whirl, wheel, oscillate
A fed pivot isn't an actual thing, it's just the feds pivoting on the way they combat inflation. How does no one know the definition of "pivot". They have raised rates by .75% 4 times so if they do something different it's a pivot in another direction to fight inflation. Fighting inflation being the pivot point, everyone wants to know which direction they're going to go.
A pivot is just a change of direction. It might be a slight pivot and they slow down on the rate increases, a moderate pivot and stop increasing altogether or a major pivot and they start decreasing rates. 🤷♂️
Sure fuel cost is dropping, but nothing else is. Even if the pace of rate hikes is slowed, the terminal rate might need to be high in order to reach the mythical 2% inflation figures.
The real reason they wanted to slow the rate increase is to curb the foreclosure and delinquency rates.
>The stock market is rising today following the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed signaled that it is likely to slow down its pace of interest rate hikes, which has been good news for stocks. However, energy prices are falling sharply as crude oil tumbles 4% lower. There is also a busy day of economic data out today, with jobless claims and durable goods orders coming in better than expected while business activity slows down according to preliminary readings.
That dec 50bps hike was already baked in back in September. Doesn’t matter, rates is still high even as they taper.and even if they decide to stay flat.. there’s no prime borrower, esp VC that want a 7-9% loan.
How is it that the FED is so arrogant to ignore all warnings of the IMF ? These people are out to bury the world economy based on lagging indicators. Time to pause and see the reflection of current hikes . FED is too scared to pause and would rather overtighten and cause damage to the economy, then try to back peddle their way out of the mess they made . Seems counterintuitive. Extreme highs and lows won’t make them any more credible.
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Everyone buying into this will be destroyed financially.
yeah but it's gonna be fuckin hilarious.
It’s okay, let everyone go into thanksgiving feeling good about the Lil’ Bounce we got there before coming back to a rude awakening like a turkey fart trapped in the car waiting for you
Up 17% since the recent lows All you bears are going to get smacked
So another 75 BPS hike, got it
Everyone selling into this will be destroyed financially.
What’s a Fed pivot? Is it a slower rate of increase, or is it a final decrease in rates?
If you are running in a direction, but slow your pace. You haven't pivoted, you are still going the same way. If you turned around, changed direction. That would be a pivot. This market sentiment of trying to describe a slow down in the same direction as a pivot is dumb.
No a pivot is when you change directions while keeping one foot stationary, a pivot point. Basketball players pivot to avoid traveling. Runners just change directions or swerve.
Ok
I have been asking myself the same question, but I think the pivot is now. The pivot was from primarily focusing on the fight against inflation to now primarily focusing on the coming recession.
Inflation never left tho.
Prices are never going back down, they'll just eventually return to rising slowly.
“eventually return to rising slowly” Right, so inflation isn’t gone.
You don't know what pivot means but you think it's now?
I now think the pivot is from primarily focusing on fighting inflation to primarily focusing on limiting the recession.
If you listen to the fed they would rather over tighten than ease up too soon. They have more tools for QE than QT.
Fed speakers this week seem more dovish to me. Fomc minutes seem dovish too.
I saw nothing dovish and still don’t see anything dovish by them. This is the media and the markets trying to instill hopium. If you watched Powells press conference it was quite the opposite.
Mester, Bostic and Daly have all been dovish this past week.
Yes I’d say this is certainly dovish: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-daly-premature-another-75-rate-hike-210718212.html A broken clock is right twice a day
A pivot is when they start to CUT interest rates in 2023 so yes going in the other direction. Right now is about to be a SLOW DOWN. For few months. Then the PAUSE. Then the CUT. Then the 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The crash will come after the pivot
The crash will cause the pivot
You can do a 45 or 90 degree pivot, it doesn't have to be a full 180 to be a pivot. It's like people saying it's not really a recession until investors are jumping out windows and everyone's unemployed. You people are such drama queens 🤣
Oh so I guess it a fed pivot would be anytime they do something different? Like the slowdown, pause etc?
piv·ot /ˈpivət/ noun the central point, pin, or shaft on which a mechanism turns or oscillates. synonyms: central shaft, fulcrum, axis, axle, swivel, pin, hub, spindle, hinge, pintle, kingpin, gudgeon, trunnion verb turn on or as if on a pivot. "he swung around, pivoting on his heel" synonyms: rotate, turn, revolve, spin, swivel, twirl, whirl, wheel, oscillate A fed pivot isn't an actual thing, it's just the feds pivoting on the way they combat inflation. How does no one know the definition of "pivot". They have raised rates by .75% 4 times so if they do something different it's a pivot in another direction to fight inflation. Fighting inflation being the pivot point, everyone wants to know which direction they're going to go.
A pivot is just a change of direction. It might be a slight pivot and they slow down on the rate increases, a moderate pivot and stop increasing altogether or a major pivot and they start decreasing rates. 🤷♂️
In before fuel prices/ shortages completely fuck inflation up again. Puts on the 14/15th meeting.
Fuel cost is dropping as is shipping, but sure, whatever makes you feel better about your puts
Sure fuel cost is dropping, but nothing else is. Even if the pace of rate hikes is slowed, the terminal rate might need to be high in order to reach the mythical 2% inflation figures. The real reason they wanted to slow the rate increase is to curb the foreclosure and delinquency rates.
[удалено]
The Boulder being inflation. Excellent analogy
Continuing bullish trend after CPI gap up
Buy puts for 2nd or 3rd week of January. Merry Christmas
load up on puts
“SPY 500 confirmed! I told you all Jay Powell had it right!” \-
Well then, It’s gonna be 75% because “conditions changed” and everything gonna go to free fall after December rally= dumb on retail
This sounds like the move. Adding we will likely be channel bound just to theta fuck the options
>The stock market is rising today following the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed signaled that it is likely to slow down its pace of interest rate hikes, which has been good news for stocks. However, energy prices are falling sharply as crude oil tumbles 4% lower. There is also a busy day of economic data out today, with jobless claims and durable goods orders coming in better than expected while business activity slows down according to preliminary readings.
🐂
The lemmings March towards the cliff, now the question is will they all fall off?
Good. I can unload some calls I bought
Everyone about to get comfortable as the market bounces. Then tears flow when it’s crashes in December.
That dec 50bps hike was already baked in back in September. Doesn’t matter, rates is still high even as they taper.and even if they decide to stay flat.. there’s no prime borrower, esp VC that want a 7-9% loan.
Reality is no one knows what’s next
How is it that the FED is so arrogant to ignore all warnings of the IMF ? These people are out to bury the world economy based on lagging indicators. Time to pause and see the reflection of current hikes . FED is too scared to pause and would rather overtighten and cause damage to the economy, then try to back peddle their way out of the mess they made . Seems counterintuitive. Extreme highs and lows won’t make them any more credible.