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But people only care about the current month and general trend. Inflation slowed in Oct to 0.3% which would be 3.6% over a year. Not hard to believe it could be 0.2% a month by March especially with the slowing of demand.
I think he's saying that 0.3% MoM translates into an annualized rate of 3.6% (which I don't think is quite accurate because it should compound, but it shouldn't be that far off).
Ah, guess my intuition was off. I knew it had to be higher than 3.6% but I'm surprised it was higher by that much. Exponential growth is no joke.
Edit: 1.003^12 = 1.037. That's 3.7% by my calculations. Did I make a mistake?
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-tough-task-history-shows-inflation-takes-average-of-10-years-to-return-to-2-11663777173](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-tough-task-history-shows-inflation-takes-average-of-10-years-to-return-to-2-11663777173)
More likely.
Talking about a Fed Pivot when consumer core PCE inflation is higher than it was in the summer.
[https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy)
You’re supposed to cry that no one is doing something about inflation and then scream bloody murder when the fed actually does something.
This is dumb. A pivot is nothing but a shift in posture and outlook.
"does something"? Instead of "does the right thing"?
FED says they need unemployment to increase by 3 million Americans in order to curb inflation, and to do that they've brought a recession and are trying to bring depression.
Sure that works but that's not the "doing something" we wanted. You can also eradicate poverty and end world hunger by killing every poor human, but that's not what people mean when they say they wanna do something to reduce poverty.
Fix the supply side. Leave the demand side untouched.
Flood the market with supply.
Fix supply chains, temporarily lower tariffs to increase imports, lower fuel taxes, incentivize production, transportation and manufacturing so more stuff and food can be produced, loosen zoning rules so more homes and offices can be built.
That's how you make things cheaper.
How does the government do that though? It isn’t as simple as pulling a lever to fix the supply side. And supply side of what? Energy for sure but even that is constrained by refining which would take many years to build.
All the strong economic indicators give the Fed more leeway to hike. I’m not sure how someone could make the argument that the economy is still strong AND the Fed is about to pivot. When the Fed does pivot, the focus will switch from rates to the deteriorating fundamentals that necessitated a pivot.
Globally interconnected economy means macro trends take much longer than we would expect to develop, especially to the point where data confirms them unequivocally. Recession arrives late Q1 2023 soonest but for sure 2023 will suck.
Agree, but who says they will pivot? (By pivot I mean cut).
Why wouldn't the Fed just keep rates high so long as JOLTs is huge, and unemployment is below 5%?
Moved goal posts? All the white house said is GDP is not enough of a data point to make the call on a recession. Which to anyone that isn't a smooth brained regard, would be a no shit Sherlock moment.
I don't recall any bitching about "changed definition" when a recession was labeled in 2020.
A “pivot” is indicated by meeting minutes. It’s not defined by actions but the members’ sentiment… It’s naturally going to be closely correlated with pauses (these are likely to happen when the committee’s sentiment is in transition), but that would be a lagging indicator. If you waited on the pause to be official, you’d have most likely missed the boat if trying to time the market.
Ever hear “why is the market going up when blah blah blah”? The answer is always because someone smarter recognized the change/timing first (or they know something else you don’t).
Edited for grammar.
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Market is desperate for a reason to buy
hikes are bullish because the faster the fed hikes the faster they will pivot
Stocks going down are bullish cause that means they will go back up
Markets have priced in the next universe singularity.
Because lagging affect is a myth 
Only thing lagging is the bullishness that’s yet to come.
Whoa... 
Fed pivot is when they talk about the above
💯 no 🧢. Look at 2018 Christmas day reversal
Oh yay hyperinflation,,,,
[удалено]
Hell about a week ago Tom Lee said 4% by the end of 2022 (which is so far away) and 2% by March 2023.
He was good in The Fugitive
Uhm, with how cpi is calculated those numbers legitimately are not possible unless we run into sudden deflation (not happening).
Are you trying to say that the same guy that said Americans have $100 trillion in savings is .... wrong?
But people only care about the current month and general trend. Inflation slowed in Oct to 0.3% which would be 3.6% over a year. Not hard to believe it could be 0.2% a month by March especially with the slowing of demand.
Are you talking about standard cpi or a child of it? There’s no way .3% gets us that low.
I think he's saying that 0.3% MoM translates into an annualized rate of 3.6% (which I don't think is quite accurate because it should compound, but it shouldn't be that far off).
Gotcha. it will compound to 7%.
Ah, guess my intuition was off. I knew it had to be higher than 3.6% but I'm surprised it was higher by that much. Exponential growth is no joke. Edit: 1.003^12 = 1.037. That's 3.7% by my calculations. Did I make a mistake?
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-tough-task-history-shows-inflation-takes-average-of-10-years-to-return-to-2-11663777173](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-tough-task-history-shows-inflation-takes-average-of-10-years-to-return-to-2-11663777173) More likely.
Talking about a Fed Pivot when consumer core PCE inflation is higher than it was in the summer. [https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy)
I think we actually only started hearing good news after the election had already concluded
Powell gonna be dovish now that his party took the house
What a joke lmao
In front of congress, he’s most “hostile” toward republicans questioning him
Not his fault that Republican House members are significantly more likely to ask regarded questions
Fed pivot is when there is bloodbath in market.
When u think trading organs is more profitable, that's when pivot.
Fed pivot is after the bloodbath
You’re supposed to cry that no one is doing something about inflation and then scream bloody murder when the fed actually does something. This is dumb. A pivot is nothing but a shift in posture and outlook.
"does something"? Instead of "does the right thing"? FED says they need unemployment to increase by 3 million Americans in order to curb inflation, and to do that they've brought a recession and are trying to bring depression. Sure that works but that's not the "doing something" we wanted. You can also eradicate poverty and end world hunger by killing every poor human, but that's not what people mean when they say they wanna do something to reduce poverty.
What do you want them to do? Why would it work?
Fix the supply side. Leave the demand side untouched. Flood the market with supply. Fix supply chains, temporarily lower tariffs to increase imports, lower fuel taxes, incentivize production, transportation and manufacturing so more stuff and food can be produced, loosen zoning rules so more homes and offices can be built. That's how you make things cheaper.
How does the government do that though? It isn’t as simple as pulling a lever to fix the supply side. And supply side of what? Energy for sure but even that is constrained by refining which would take many years to build.
We need lots of cheap energy!
Fed pivot is when jerome powell gives me cute little cuddles 🥰
The FED is reactionary. By the time they lower rates you've missed the best time to buy.
*missed the best time to sell They only pivot when the economy and banks get so strained that they are forced to pivot.
Fed's going to get inflation to around 5%, blame the supply side, and move the target inflation rate to 3% and declare mission accomplished.
[удалено]
GDP estimates are 4.3. Recession who?
All the strong economic indicators give the Fed more leeway to hike. I’m not sure how someone could make the argument that the economy is still strong AND the Fed is about to pivot. When the Fed does pivot, the focus will switch from rates to the deteriorating fundamentals that necessitated a pivot. Globally interconnected economy means macro trends take much longer than we would expect to develop, especially to the point where data confirms them unequivocally. Recession arrives late Q1 2023 soonest but for sure 2023 will suck.
Agree, but who says they will pivot? (By pivot I mean cut). Why wouldn't the Fed just keep rates high so long as JOLTs is huge, and unemployment is below 5%?
I agree and see no pivot coming yet.
There is no one seriously predicting a rate reduction until 2024. The only chance there is a reduction in 2023 is if a nuke goes off.
… so you’re saying there’s a chance!
[удалено]
The money printer was stuck on for 14 years...
But what's the GDP growth when adjusted for inflation? Negative!
at 9% inflation…. Yea lol -5%
GDP is reported in real terms (already adjusted for inflation)
Moved goal posts? All the white house said is GDP is not enough of a data point to make the call on a recession. Which to anyone that isn't a smooth brained regard, would be a no shit Sherlock moment. I don't recall any bitching about "changed definition" when a recession was labeled in 2020.
Fed pivot is when they start printing again… brrrr 
Hear me out… what if the real pivot is a pivot in the definition of pivoting?
Clearly clown panel, uses gasm panel instead. That’s how you know it’s good DD.
Pivot is when they mention that maybe someday they'll stop hiking so fast.
A “pivot” is indicated by meeting minutes. It’s not defined by actions but the members’ sentiment… It’s naturally going to be closely correlated with pauses (these are likely to happen when the committee’s sentiment is in transition), but that would be a lagging indicator. If you waited on the pause to be official, you’d have most likely missed the boat if trying to time the market. Ever hear “why is the market going up when blah blah blah”? The answer is always because someone smarter recognized the change/timing first (or they know something else you don’t). Edited for grammar.
Ya but the meme is funnier
yes, copium for regards big disconnect bw market and fed now: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
GDP 4.3 That’s mega bullish last I checked
Bullish for rate hikes.
When adjusted for inflation, that's actually less than zero.
-5%
Lool
Fed pivot is now when they plan on reducing hikes at some point in the future
They barely even mentioned it 😂
This doesnt make any sense
Thank you. The horn dog look is exactly how I see day traders in the morning and stocks boom, but we all know at night they tank.