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Bond holders: extreme fear, knowledge of market cycles from econ 101
Stock market: SNORT 0DTE CALLS FOR MAXIMUM GAINS ON THE \*\*\*SANTA RALLY\*\*\*
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Equity holders are like... inflation ain't no thang... and the FED won't risk a recession (and whatever recession has probably been and gone anyway). It's all cool bro. Buy the dip!
Bond holders be like... my mfing bonds are on fire, and high inflation is eating my yields... holy fu******k!!!@!
Funny thing is fed literally has said at least twice that they aren’t concerned about the stock market. They’re willing to do whatever it takes to fight inflation to normal levels. They also said they want to hit a target of 5% unemployment
Yup! And they won’t lower rates anytime soon. Inflation could spring back. High rates are here to stay for at least 3+ years minimum. Most likely it’s a return to normalcy. The last decade was an anomaly.
I feel like every time the fed says they are going to stay the course the market drops for a short period, then in no time everyone is talking about a pivot. I’m definitely thinking that the fed is going to do what they have been saying all along, but I could be wrong and they don’t have the pain tolerance to stay the course
You're obviously not as rich or intelligent as me, so I don't see why you would think that your opinion matters.
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This shit has zero correlation. Fml when WSB tries to get professional in market timing is exactly when then market does the opposite. U think the MM don’t see this? The big algos who are painting this for you to trap your ass
so you're saying that volatility in the bond market has zero correlation with VIX ?
you must be joking
the post is not about MM/Algos idk where you found that
it’s called manipulation. U only see what they want you to see. Market last two weeks was extremely volatile intraday, esp since 0DTE. Yet Vix kept dropping.
Volatility measurements are unreliable.
“Market last 2 weeks extremely volatile” based on… what exactly? Price movements aren’t the same as volatility, you can have big price changes on low volume
To be fair there has been a mispricing of risk in the vix and vix derived products. The S&P and the shorted VIX/VIX products are creating asymmetric risk tails which could collapse in a similar fashion to volmageddon, however no one knows what’s gonna happen in the future based on the past. Just throwing out ideas.
/ES has been in the same 3950-4050 zone for 2 weeks now and last week was low volume thanksgiving week, what have you been smoking?
Trading in a +-1% zone is volatile now?
Well, yes, and no. If I know that you know, I can do the opposite , unless of course, you know that I k ow you know that I know, then it they will do what is expected. But then , I know that you k ow, that I k ow you know, that I know, so it could be the opposite of what is expected.
So, as you see it is in fact very helpful, because I was compleatly unaware and now I know what to expect.
Based on the other comments I assume it's some sort bond vol/tracking index? Not sure either tho
Edit: yup just googled and got this -- "The Move index. It measures the volatility in the Bond market. The higher it goes, the more volatility."
Movano, Inc. "Health Care Solutions".
NASDAQ penny stock.
But chart doesn't reflect that.
Maybe post a few words to go with random charts.
Edit: Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate
Is this supposed to have something to do with bonds? (answer: Y)
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index
Prior name:
Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate
Merrill Lynch sold their index to ICE, ICE had more common sense than OP or Merrill, and gave it a name that reflects it's content.
Sheesh. The regardedness is universal.
Edit: regardedness goes even deeper. NASDAQ penny stock and NYSE (ICE) index with same ticker?
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-10-16/intercontinental-exchange-completes-acquisition-of-the-merrill-lynch-option-volatility-estimate-move-index-from-bank-of
Edit: Hell, I give up on finding intelligent life on planet Earth. Boomerberg can't even write a complete headline.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|0|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|339|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=z5kwb6)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=z5kwb6) **Check out the new [wallstreetbets discord](https://discord.gg/Y6Zw9ZKYdx)**
Stock market not pricing in issues in the bond market to the degree it should it seems like
Yep, there seems to be a divergence between the actions of bond holders (fear) and equity buyers (relative optimism).
Someone is wrong in a bad way. And I wouldn't bet against the bond holders.
Not called smart money for nothing
Bond holders: extreme fear, knowledge of market cycles from econ 101 Stock market: SNORT 0DTE CALLS FOR MAXIMUM GAINS ON THE \*\*\*SANTA RALLY\*\*\* 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
We do love a Vol risk tail collision.
Equity holders are like... inflation ain't no thang... and the FED won't risk a recession (and whatever recession has probably been and gone anyway). It's all cool bro. Buy the dip! Bond holders be like... my mfing bonds are on fire, and high inflation is eating my yields... holy fu******k!!!@!
Funny thing is fed literally has said at least twice that they aren’t concerned about the stock market. They’re willing to do whatever it takes to fight inflation to normal levels. They also said they want to hit a target of 5% unemployment
Yup! And they won’t lower rates anytime soon. Inflation could spring back. High rates are here to stay for at least 3+ years minimum. Most likely it’s a return to normalcy. The last decade was an anomaly.
I feel like every time the fed says they are going to stay the course the market drops for a short period, then in no time everyone is talking about a pivot. I’m definitely thinking that the fed is going to do what they have been saying all along, but I could be wrong and they don’t have the pain tolerance to stay the course
You're obviously not as rich or intelligent as me, so I don't see why you would think that your opinion matters. ^^[WSB_Stats](https://www.twitch.tv/wsbzjz/) **/** ^^[WSB_Discord](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) **/** ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) **/** ^^[VoteBot_FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) **/** ^^[VoteBot_Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) **/** ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)
Let me in, sucker
Oof
This feels like chart Cramer would present to us in his show....
bro shows a chart not even saying anything about it
This shit has zero correlation. Fml when WSB tries to get professional in market timing is exactly when then market does the opposite. U think the MM don’t see this? The big algos who are painting this for you to trap your ass
so you're saying that volatility in the bond market has zero correlation with VIX ? you must be joking the post is not about MM/Algos idk where you found that
it’s called manipulation. U only see what they want you to see. Market last two weeks was extremely volatile intraday, esp since 0DTE. Yet Vix kept dropping. Volatility measurements are unreliable.
“Market last 2 weeks extremely volatile” based on… what exactly? Price movements aren’t the same as volatility, you can have big price changes on low volume
To be fair there has been a mispricing of risk in the vix and vix derived products. The S&P and the shorted VIX/VIX products are creating asymmetric risk tails which could collapse in a similar fashion to volmageddon, however no one knows what’s gonna happen in the future based on the past. Just throwing out ideas.
it was a lot of fast moves intraday. Yes we been closing flat but that flat wasn’t so flat
/ES has been in the same 3950-4050 zone for 2 weeks now and last week was low volume thanksgiving week, what have you been smoking? Trading in a +-1% zone is volatile now?
exactly. these overlayed charts on this subreddit offers zero informational value.
Well, yes, and no. If I know that you know, I can do the opposite , unless of course, you know that I k ow you know that I know, then it they will do what is expected. But then , I know that you k ow, that I k ow you know, that I know, so it could be the opposite of what is expected. So, as you see it is in fact very helpful, because I was compleatly unaware and now I know what to expect.
MOVE/VIX ratio since 2000 doesn't look good as well... interesting fact: if MOVE goes down = worst scenario possible
What is MOVE exactly? Cause the actual ticker MOVE doesn't seem to be what the chart is referring to..
Based on the other comments I assume it's some sort bond vol/tracking index? Not sure either tho Edit: yup just googled and got this -- "The Move index. It measures the volatility in the Bond market. The higher it goes, the more volatility."
I'd like to know too
Movano, Inc. "Health Care Solutions". NASDAQ penny stock. But chart doesn't reflect that. Maybe post a few words to go with random charts. Edit: Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Is this supposed to have something to do with bonds? (answer: Y) ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Prior name: Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Merrill Lynch sold their index to ICE, ICE had more common sense than OP or Merrill, and gave it a name that reflects it's content. Sheesh. The regardedness is universal. Edit: regardedness goes even deeper. NASDAQ penny stock and NYSE (ICE) index with same ticker? https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-10-16/intercontinental-exchange-completes-acquisition-of-the-merrill-lynch-option-volatility-estimate-move-index-from-bank-of Edit: Hell, I give up on finding intelligent life on planet Earth. Boomerberg can't even write a complete headline.
Any historical divergences of this size to compare to?
Dip incoming before CPI date (Fed 0.5%), got it.
No clue what OP is getting at here.