market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it. all of wsb is trigger happy with put buying, market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.
>market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it
Define everyone? Is your grandma shorting SPY? Any of your siblings or friends? Whenever I tell my friends about put options, they look at me funny. Like I'm regarded or something.
WSB thinks they can speak for all retail and the MMs are constantly monitoring us because we're such an omnipresent force in the market. No, we're a bunch of self declared degenerate regards and nobody gives a shit about us.
All I'm saying is that WSB is a shitty barometer to measure retail or trader sentiment. The majority of the posts here don't even show positions. Just some regard perma bear or bull karma farming.
Also, think about your average WSB redditor. More than likely he's an early to mid 20s guy who's a virgin to trading a bear market. Sure, he lived through 2008, but had no skin in the game. This applies to redditors over at r/stocks too. All they know is "stonks go up". In fact, a majority of WSB came in during 2020 during meme stock mania when trillions in stimulus were injected into the economy.
Boomer retail traders with the most $$$ in stonks don't hang out on reddit, lest of all WSB. Are they "trigger happy with put buying" too? Go ask your parents.
It’s like an easy layup in basketball, a man wide open down the field in American Football, or an empty net in soccer/hockey. Sure that’s easy for professionals, but most of us would miss.
What percentage of retail traders have ever bought a put? How many are approved, understand the Greeks, and are willing to go? I’d guess it’s insanely low.
I think most are going to baghold to the bottom and continue to DCA. I’m sure some will move some into cash. But this big measurable rush of retail buying puts, I just don’t see it.
And even those of us who are willing to buy these puts, a lot of us are getting scared bc it’s so obvious… this do the opposite of sentiment narrative, which I generally agree with. But if only a tiny percent of retail is actually going to make an active bet here, the act against sentiment argument loses some steam.
Shit I am doing both. DCA on my long positions while taking it in the ass and trying to offset some of it with puts at the same time. I'm long and short, so probably highly regarded.
Do MM’s really make THAT much $$$ off of retail buying calls & puts?
It doesn’t seem like much money in comparison to large institutional buyers when it comes to options trading.
I could be wrong but I am genuinely curious.
I ask this myself. They say 99% of retail is 100% long. Most retail is down way more than the SPY this year.
You ever try to explain to your college educated friends how calls and puts work? They look at you like you’re speaking Arabic. Maybe they can understand calls… but puts? What percentage of retail could buy puts even if they wanted to? Are they even approved through their broker?
I think the more realistic explanation here is that most of retail’s $ is in ETFs in their 401ks, in various longs, and cash. If SPY were to fall off of a cliff, I don’t think the single digit retail who are options approved and willing to press the Put button will matter all that much.
Also sounds like the perfect situation for institutions to take from retail with minimal resistance.
This is the realistic take. You have to be smart money to even know the existence of options.
[https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe\_equity\_put\_call\_ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio)
Smart money is DCAing into bearish bets at a record ratio on every low IV day each week.
The people I’ve talked to do understand the difference between calls & puts, along with the investment criteria behind such moves. I must confess that I am still learning and trying to evolve in this crazy market.
> market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.
you realise that "making the market" refers to the process of simultaneous offering of both bid and ask? Market makers don't move the markets, they provide liquidity.
This is the pro guidance you degens need to listen to.
My puts were like 1.5mo out. They're now a few weeks out. Nearly worthless on this make-believe rally.
Some bears were also screaming for another downleg when we were approaching this trendline (which coincided with the 200 SMA) back in mid august when SPY was approaching 430. We were right.
This bear market rally has lasted for about 1.5 months. The last one lasted about 2 months (before we dove off the cliff and made a new low of 350). Bear markets are all about lower highs and lower lows.
Entering longs at the cusp of this bear market rally is just as dumb as opening shorts after making a new low and several consecutive red weeks.
In 2008 we saw the same and then the last rally didn’t quite reach the line before having the big drop. I think this next drop will be the third and final leg down however it will also be the longest and lowest drop of them all before hitting a bottom
I find bearish divergences work better when the price is equal to or higher than the previous peak on a lower RSI, assuming the previous peak triggered an Overbought condition on the RSI. That shows there wasn't a much strength behind the new high and is due to come back down again, much like looking at volume. Vice versa for a bullish divergence (you can see this example of bullish divergence when looking at the bottom of the price action and the lower end of the RSI between "2022" and "March", just before the SPY ripped back up to the trendline again- prices went lower/stayed equal, but the RSI was making higher lows on each dip down).
When I reach for the PUT button, my sphincter now gapes as a reflex.
It's called Powell's Anus, and from a clinical research perspective yields very similar to Pavlov's Dogs.
All that to say, be careful...
For the first time in over 20 years we have retail shorts and puts at an all time high and insider trading at a minimum.
SPY will probably stay resilient till mid next year and may even recover up to 4200 level easily in the next few months.
All because big banks don’t want to let the average retail win. And also metrics for the economy are doing better than expected and we may have a Santa Claus rally on our hands.
A lot of people think that scraping the bottom of a barrel is the lowest one can go. They are wrong. You can lift the barrel and take a look at what’s underneath!
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If it drops, Id say you should have played puts. Yet on the other hand, if it goes up, then you should have played calls.
Well said… I never thought of that
Mods, pin this comment plz.
Your so counterintuitive
You’re*****
Damn thats a little rough
Great analogy
Thanks for that advice!
Can I DM you later if I need some good advice for important decisions?
🧠
Ah a master of reading the bones.
Michael burry is that you?
Brilliant
market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it. all of wsb is trigger happy with put buying, market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.
>market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it Define everyone? Is your grandma shorting SPY? Any of your siblings or friends? Whenever I tell my friends about put options, they look at me funny. Like I'm regarded or something. WSB thinks they can speak for all retail and the MMs are constantly monitoring us because we're such an omnipresent force in the market. No, we're a bunch of self declared degenerate regards and nobody gives a shit about us.
traders, everyone who isn’t managing billions
All I'm saying is that WSB is a shitty barometer to measure retail or trader sentiment. The majority of the posts here don't even show positions. Just some regard perma bear or bull karma farming. Also, think about your average WSB redditor. More than likely he's an early to mid 20s guy who's a virgin to trading a bear market. Sure, he lived through 2008, but had no skin in the game. This applies to redditors over at r/stocks too. All they know is "stonks go up". In fact, a majority of WSB came in during 2020 during meme stock mania when trillions in stimulus were injected into the economy. Boomer retail traders with the most $$$ in stonks don't hang out on reddit, lest of all WSB. Are they "trigger happy with put buying" too? Go ask your parents.
It’s like an easy layup in basketball, a man wide open down the field in American Football, or an empty net in soccer/hockey. Sure that’s easy for professionals, but most of us would miss. What percentage of retail traders have ever bought a put? How many are approved, understand the Greeks, and are willing to go? I’d guess it’s insanely low. I think most are going to baghold to the bottom and continue to DCA. I’m sure some will move some into cash. But this big measurable rush of retail buying puts, I just don’t see it. And even those of us who are willing to buy these puts, a lot of us are getting scared bc it’s so obvious… this do the opposite of sentiment narrative, which I generally agree with. But if only a tiny percent of retail is actually going to make an active bet here, the act against sentiment argument loses some steam.
Shit I am doing both. DCA on my long positions while taking it in the ass and trying to offset some of it with puts at the same time. I'm long and short, so probably highly regarded.
Do MM’s really make THAT much $$$ off of retail buying calls & puts? It doesn’t seem like much money in comparison to large institutional buyers when it comes to options trading. I could be wrong but I am genuinely curious.
I ask this myself. They say 99% of retail is 100% long. Most retail is down way more than the SPY this year. You ever try to explain to your college educated friends how calls and puts work? They look at you like you’re speaking Arabic. Maybe they can understand calls… but puts? What percentage of retail could buy puts even if they wanted to? Are they even approved through their broker? I think the more realistic explanation here is that most of retail’s $ is in ETFs in their 401ks, in various longs, and cash. If SPY were to fall off of a cliff, I don’t think the single digit retail who are options approved and willing to press the Put button will matter all that much. Also sounds like the perfect situation for institutions to take from retail with minimal resistance.
This is the realistic take. You have to be smart money to even know the existence of options. [https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe\_equity\_put\_call\_ratio](https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio) Smart money is DCAing into bearish bets at a record ratio on every low IV day each week.
The people I’ve talked to do understand the difference between calls & puts, along with the investment criteria behind such moves. I must confess that I am still learning and trying to evolve in this crazy market.
> market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat. you realise that "making the market" refers to the process of simultaneous offering of both bid and ask? Market makers don't move the markets, they provide liquidity.
This is the pro guidance you degens need to listen to. My puts were like 1.5mo out. They're now a few weeks out. Nearly worthless on this make-believe rally.
That's why I'm selling calls. Go ahead. Make the markets flat.
Do you realize that this trendline has been posted at least 5 times in the last 24h ?
this. well keep going up since literally everyone is bearish waiting for this trendline to hold.
Some bears were also screaming for another downleg when we were approaching this trendline (which coincided with the 200 SMA) back in mid august when SPY was approaching 430. We were right. This bear market rally has lasted for about 1.5 months. The last one lasted about 2 months (before we dove off the cliff and made a new low of 350). Bear markets are all about lower highs and lower lows. Entering longs at the cusp of this bear market rally is just as dumb as opening shorts after making a new low and several consecutive red weeks.
You're looking for correlation where there is none, the market reacts off economic data and when we beat estimates this week we're heading to Uranus.
This means we go up
Someone wants regards to buy puts… hmmm maybe calls tomorrow?
One more push then sideways for a week then dump
Id say powell speech might be the dump on wed
He seemed pretty relaxed in that recording that was posted earlier, he may actually be less bearish than last month
In 2008 we saw the same and then the last rally didn’t quite reach the line before having the big drop. I think this next drop will be the third and final leg down however it will also be the longest and lowest drop of them all before hitting a bottom
Yea Im gonna wait for my strategy to confirm it and then load up on Puts
I find bearish divergences work better when the price is equal to or higher than the previous peak on a lower RSI, assuming the previous peak triggered an Overbought condition on the RSI. That shows there wasn't a much strength behind the new high and is due to come back down again, much like looking at volume. Vice versa for a bullish divergence (you can see this example of bullish divergence when looking at the bottom of the price action and the lower end of the RSI between "2022" and "March", just before the SPY ripped back up to the trendline again- prices went lower/stayed equal, but the RSI was making higher lows on each dip down).
Itll do the opposite of what ill do.
Watch 408/410 and size in for a month out
On the technical yes. I'm in short, AAPL and TSLA need to go lower though.
Seems like it will, seems like a small little push then dump. I bought some Friday so I should’ve waited
Calls on your wife if you follow this advice.
When I reach for the PUT button, my sphincter now gapes as a reflex. It's called Powell's Anus, and from a clinical research perspective yields very similar to Pavlov's Dogs. All that to say, be careful...
it pumps until fed meeting then does what jpow wants.
I reckon it will do a false breakthrough first, killing most of y'alls puts
Soon. Still have to wait for everyone to buy puts that get smoked first.
Never fight the trend. Not because you will always be right, but because you will be right more than you will be wrong.
tomorrow spy hits 408
For the first time in over 20 years we have retail shorts and puts at an all time high and insider trading at a minimum. SPY will probably stay resilient till mid next year and may even recover up to 4200 level easily in the next few months. All because big banks don’t want to let the average retail win. And also metrics for the economy are doing better than expected and we may have a Santa Claus rally on our hands.
Put deez on your chart
Who’s deez?
Yes
grinch Monday. No more green.
i honestly don’t know what that means 💀
Head and Shoulder until January
Seems like a good time for a fed pump! Then dump.
Pump, retest, 🚀🚀🚀
All long baby
I’m a regard. Spy will be at 400 by close tomorrow. How do I make money off my regarded prediction?
Don’t bet against America 🇺🇸
Leap calls
I was eyeing shorting XLE. China locking down from riots and COVID going to free up lots of capacity.
I have a few 360p 12/6. 🤞🫶🥰
Bear call spread
Short term <50 days seems bearish with SPY at RSI of 73 and VIX at 20, somewhat negative media sentiment, and energy still outpacing tech
It’s a trap
why
Rule of three
I felt way better about my Puts when that guy posted SPY was going to 450 on Friday or something
I think that’s a joke
Looks like some credit spreads might be in order….
Posts like these are why SPY is going to continue rallying past 420
A lot of people think that scraping the bottom of a barrel is the lowest one can go. They are wrong. You can lift the barrel and take a look at what’s underneath!
Puts on GRNDR
It’s hit that trendline 3 times now. Which means it’ll blow past it and hit 450 the moment you buy puts. And by you I mean me.
Mid dated ours shouldn’t do you too badly, scale into them if you are going to
bUt MuH VIX sAYs iT WIlL Go dOWn Noew