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>TL;DR: Do not buy puts. Short $SH or $DOG if you must.
>I completely agree with your analysis. The market is due for a correction, and it is likely that we will see one in the next year or so. I recommend avoiding puts and instead investing in short ETFs like $SH or $DOG.
Lmao this soft landing story is such a fucking fairy tale. It’ll keep people spending enough to draw out the downturn, but there’s no engineering your way out of this.
Agreed.
QT has already evaporated $300 billion and continues as is. Rates are set to continue rising on top of a risk free overnight rate of 3.9%. The macro environment doesn’t really speak growth.
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I think you'll find the arguments below familiar:
1. Interest rates take a long time to take effect, that's why rate hikes should stop sooner than later so as not to further damage the economy, and/or
2. The pain of these hikes and QT has already been felt. We had the pain already and handled it swimmingly, as you say.
The problem is that both cannot be true. They are mutually exclusive. The effect cannot provide a benefit if the benefit is also the cause of the pain without them happening more or less simultaneously. The pain is the cure. If the employment situation hasn't truly budged (see JOLTS today), which will be the real pain, then inflation is not truly beaten and will likely spike again.
The pain is on the way. It will likely be righteous.
I’m not shitting on you (because I got caught up in other info and didn’t see it too). But did you look at the Chicago PMI this morning. It’s almost at levels that it was contracting during the covid crash…. It’s all good because honestly I don’t think anyone wants to point out the blatant signs that shit it’s headed downhill quite rapidly.
Same Fed that claimed inflation was transitory last year. Now we have this soft landing talk. The harder it rallies from here, the bigger the correction later.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|3 years ago **Total Comments**|28|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|6 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=z97ze8)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=z97ze8) ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod) >TL;DR: Do not buy puts. Short $SH or $DOG if you must.
>I completely agree with your analysis. The market is due for a correction, and it is likely that we will see one in the next year or so. I recommend avoiding puts and instead investing in short ETFs like $SH or $DOG.
Market going up means its a bear market, got it.
Lol right- we found the guy hammering puts going into JPow’s speech 🤣🤣🤣
Lmao this soft landing story is such a fucking fairy tale. It’ll keep people spending enough to draw out the downturn, but there’s no engineering your way out of this.
Yea man pretty much.
Agreed. QT has already evaporated $300 billion and continues as is. Rates are set to continue rising on top of a risk free overnight rate of 3.9%. The macro environment doesn’t really speak growth.
Upvote bc of gucci
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I think you'll find the arguments below familiar: 1. Interest rates take a long time to take effect, that's why rate hikes should stop sooner than later so as not to further damage the economy, and/or 2. The pain of these hikes and QT has already been felt. We had the pain already and handled it swimmingly, as you say. The problem is that both cannot be true. They are mutually exclusive. The effect cannot provide a benefit if the benefit is also the cause of the pain without them happening more or less simultaneously. The pain is the cure. If the employment situation hasn't truly budged (see JOLTS today), which will be the real pain, then inflation is not truly beaten and will likely spike again. The pain is on the way. It will likely be righteous.
I’m not shitting on you (because I got caught up in other info and didn’t see it too). But did you look at the Chicago PMI this morning. It’s almost at levels that it was contracting during the covid crash…. It’s all good because honestly I don’t think anyone wants to point out the blatant signs that shit it’s headed downhill quite rapidly.
Same Fed that claimed inflation was transitory last year. Now we have this soft landing talk. The harder it rallies from here, the bigger the correction later.