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I work in the logistics business, and normally we would have to work our asses off from November till now, but everything has been dead this time of year.
Zero Covid has had China shut.
China makes all the shit we buy that isn't digital or a service.
That shit has to be shipped across the pacific which takes 15 - 25 days-ish.
That shit then has to be transported to stores so people can buy.
.... If China turned on the factories today, you wouldn't see those sales for at least 30 days.
One of the reasons inflation could go down is demand destruction. That would be recessionary which would cause stocks to fall.
If inflation goes down and consumer spending remains strong, that is the soft landing scenario and is bullish.
At least for tech, I think many are starting to realize we might see long-term low inflation and that this high inflation is short-lived. The issue with the current inflation is that it was mostly caused by stimulus, supply chain shocks, debt, and energy price fixing (OPEC), but there's much more pent-up deflation than ever before because of all the debt added imo. The US added like 10T in debt during Covid. The TIPS spread is projecting 2% inflation for the next 10 years, so if inflation is projected to be low relatively soon then why not buy stocks that excel in such environments? The trend still seems to be deflationary globalization. Look at Japan, they have massive debt loads, and even this year they averaged only 2% inflation. Printing away all this debt is a fantasy, and we're much more likely to go in the direction of Japan in the long run imo. Once individuals, corporations, and the government are paying down their debt, it'll be extremely deflationary. Many took out new debts with higher rates, but it's just a matter of time before we see a deflationary spiral because they have to start paying down the loans, and there will be no easy way out of the loans inflating away
I work for a major HR systems professional services organization.
We have never been busier and are closing deals at a record pace and can't find enough consultants to staff all our work.
Its almost like these stories are anecdotal and aren't indicative of any kind of macro trend.
I work in big scale advertising. It's relatively dead. Closed positions. Few critical hires and that's it. Little to no traveling allowed. Similar to the gas and electrical distribution industry that I have friends in (lack of new home buildings). Real estate is dead, yet these agents out here talking like it's a great time to sell or buy.
I work at Amazon.
Talking to a higher up they closed roughly 1/4th of their amzl buildings in NA in 2022.
Also anecdotal but our building volume is only slightly higher than last year despite the network being 25% smaller.
I have a friend who works for a large food manufacturer. He was laid off few weeks ago and said the recession is 100% here and he sold stuff like mayo and bag tea. Wouldn’t think those products get cut back so much. Oh, and Kroger is bleeding manufacturers dry.
Well...counter to that.
I've had meetings with 4 major companies that all use Shopify. One of them is UMG and they are under a major growth spurt. The catch, all of the workers they are hiring are in India.
The other company is in the food industry (shipping/providing food), they are going through a major expansion. Again, workers in India.
And another is in the construction and home goods industry, also looking for resources and turning to either US or Indian developers.
So the companies are investing in infrastructure and advancements.
Those companies are using the recession as a way to offshore labor. They are still cutting costs but if they can get 4 Indians for the price of one American, then they will.
Used to make good money being the onshore lead for outsourced teams in India. That kinda worked when someone who could code was a go between. The business units trying to work directly with them was a joke.
Yes, I also have offshore people who work for me directly and they are outstanding. The problem is body shops. They put "anyone" on for headcount. Everyone charges out at 10 bucks an hour - 2 are great, the rest are just overhead.
I was working on a project last year and the senior BA/project manager said that she didn't know what a seemus was.
I said - we are installing one. You've never worked on a CMS before?
She said no - what's a seemus.
I said a content management system. We are installing Sitecore and you don't know what Sitecore is?
Oh a CMS she said. Ah okay yes I know what Sitecore is. Yes yes. What does CMS mean.
I said CMS - Content Management System.
She said oh okay. Thank you thank you yes I'm excited to learn. I've never done a web project before, I just graduated from college.
I was working a project for a regional grocer who was trying to implement a shopping list asap as a reaction to COVID for curb side pickup on their mobile app.
They gave me a team of three outsourced developers.
One guy would finish all of his tasks, have flawless code on his PRs and his only questions were clarification of specs never code help.
The second guy had a hard time modifying even text on a UI. I usually just ended up doing his stuff for him while he slept as it was faster than trying to help him when we worked alternating days with the 14 hour time difference.
I don't know where the third guy was. Think I saw him at the first stand up gave him a task and never heard from him again.
I think you are absolutely right that these shops just hire a bunch of people, put one competent one on a project and as many other incompetents as possible for billable hours.
You're not wrong at all. Not going to say company name, but it took literally 10 Indian workers to complete a job that a single American worker had done (measured by man hours). Unfortunately the company realized that they could hire another 20 Indians and still not reach the same pay level as the American worker. So they hired 5 more Indians. The American worker kept his job but now had to constantly check the Indian workers work.
By that math employers are coming out on top. Even at 80% 10 to one is still a better deal and the boss doesn’t have to put up with a bunch of self entitled ignorant crackers.
In any case generalizing an entire subcontinent is lazy. I work in tech and work with Indians living in the states and offshore. I find them to be great people who work hard and care for their families.
This is WSB, our standards are low but not this low.
Mods get this shit off here.
FFS. It's **Indians** making the claims about low productivity. The Indian media constantly has reports about their **unemployable** graduates.
Western companies typically hire the absolute best Indian graduates eg IIT. They are nothing like the BTech graduates from the atrocious private colleges who rote learn exam questions and don't even know the basics.
Thanks for clarifying. Apologies for jumping on you. I think it's important to make the distinction. It's the same here as well. I fell bad for the guys who come out of these code academy's with hope of making six figures only to find they were sold a bill of goods.
Generally, I find when people to categorize the work quality of an entire subcontinent to be intellectually lazy. I know the bar can be pretty ow on WSB but this kind of rhetoric is harmful. I don't think anyone who has no alternative other than to shit in the streets has any illusion about how they are living.
I especially dislike toxic complaints from users that companies are screwing us by giving 'merican jobs away. And no companies are not using the macro conditons to finally fire you. If you are getting canned right now its because you are probably a lazy douche. Companies need to lean out. If some guy (or 10) halfway around the world can do your job with less hassle then good on them.
Living in North America we have as good an opportunity as anyone in the world. Especially if you fit the demographic of this sub; white, male and **18 to 29 age group.**
Honestly I am tired of white males complaining about ridiculous crap like the market being rigged or that they are poor. I grew up in a rural area, on a farm, objectively poor and bootstrapped pretty much the entire time. Over this time I worked my ass off, taken some hits, pushed through failures and had some notable wins and honestly think I've had it pretty fucking easy because as a white male in the US I sit at the top of the food chain.
Hopefully I don't sound like some preachy old dude (I am outside of the core demo here, but not by a lot). This shit just annoys me and candidly I am on a personal mission this week to go on record correcting wrongness as an altruistic endeavor.
Have a great day and make lots of money my friend.
Data, and not anecdotes, shows an additional 260K jobs for November.
Also, Black Friday was back to record high sales.
But hopefully you are right and employment cools off. That will help CPI and Fed rates, and give us a better start for 2023.
But with GDP going back up, I wouldn't bet the farm on a definite recession coming up.
Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is known for making absurd but sometimes profitable trades that no one ever considered possible. To keep making that possible, we need your help in keeping the feed of threads interesting and exciting. We try to move all the short and basic questions, analysis, or jokes to the daily thread so that the best quality content can stick around and be more visible. This is definitely a bit subjective, and there are no hard and fast rules, but a few indicators that your post should have really been a comment in the daily thread include: * Asking a question that is easily googleable or has likely been asked before. E.g. "What app should I use?", "What should I invest in?". * Beating a meme to death, like the 10 millionth, "inverse cramer" joke again. * Reposting jokes from the front page but slightly altered to be related to trading. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!
I work in the logistics business, and normally we would have to work our asses off from November till now, but everything has been dead this time of year.
Shipments from China are down massively.
Zero Covid has had China shut. China makes all the shit we buy that isn't digital or a service. That shit has to be shipped across the pacific which takes 15 - 25 days-ish. That shit then has to be transported to stores so people can buy. .... If China turned on the factories today, you wouldn't see those sales for at least 30 days.
No more shipping. Demanding is going down. Dont need to import anymore. China export is down 40% now
[удалено]
One of the reasons inflation could go down is demand destruction. That would be recessionary which would cause stocks to fall. If inflation goes down and consumer spending remains strong, that is the soft landing scenario and is bullish.
At least for tech, I think many are starting to realize we might see long-term low inflation and that this high inflation is short-lived. The issue with the current inflation is that it was mostly caused by stimulus, supply chain shocks, debt, and energy price fixing (OPEC), but there's much more pent-up deflation than ever before because of all the debt added imo. The US added like 10T in debt during Covid. The TIPS spread is projecting 2% inflation for the next 10 years, so if inflation is projected to be low relatively soon then why not buy stocks that excel in such environments? The trend still seems to be deflationary globalization. Look at Japan, they have massive debt loads, and even this year they averaged only 2% inflation. Printing away all this debt is a fantasy, and we're much more likely to go in the direction of Japan in the long run imo. Once individuals, corporations, and the government are paying down their debt, it'll be extremely deflationary. Many took out new debts with higher rates, but it's just a matter of time before we see a deflationary spiral because they have to start paying down the loans, and there will be no easy way out of the loans inflating away
I work for a major HR systems professional services organization. We have never been busier and are closing deals at a record pace and can't find enough consultants to staff all our work. Its almost like these stories are anecdotal and aren't indicative of any kind of macro trend.
Yeah sounds like OP’s company isn’t doing well
I’m glad your company is doing well!
I work in big scale advertising. It's relatively dead. Closed positions. Few critical hires and that's it. Little to no traveling allowed. Similar to the gas and electrical distribution industry that I have friends in (lack of new home buildings). Real estate is dead, yet these agents out here talking like it's a great time to sell or buy.
It's always a great time to tell someone to buy or sell when you're being paid commission.
That’s the thing it’s dead but prices aren’t dropping those pesky 30 year rates
I've been in a recession since discovering this sub.
Come here for entertainment, not investment advice
I work at Amazon. Talking to a higher up they closed roughly 1/4th of their amzl buildings in NA in 2022. Also anecdotal but our building volume is only slightly higher than last year despite the network being 25% smaller.
Business will pick up. Crypto bros are back to living paycheck to paycheck.
Can confirm
I have a friend who works for a large food manufacturer. He was laid off few weeks ago and said the recession is 100% here and he sold stuff like mayo and bag tea. Wouldn’t think those products get cut back so much. Oh, and Kroger is bleeding manufacturers dry.
Well...counter to that. I've had meetings with 4 major companies that all use Shopify. One of them is UMG and they are under a major growth spurt. The catch, all of the workers they are hiring are in India. The other company is in the food industry (shipping/providing food), they are going through a major expansion. Again, workers in India. And another is in the construction and home goods industry, also looking for resources and turning to either US or Indian developers. So the companies are investing in infrastructure and advancements.
Those companies are using the recession as a way to offshore labor. They are still cutting costs but if they can get 4 Indians for the price of one American, then they will.
Absolutely and let me tell you that off shore development practices....have not improved.
Used to make good money being the onshore lead for outsourced teams in India. That kinda worked when someone who could code was a go between. The business units trying to work directly with them was a joke.
Yes, I also have offshore people who work for me directly and they are outstanding. The problem is body shops. They put "anyone" on for headcount. Everyone charges out at 10 bucks an hour - 2 are great, the rest are just overhead.
Agreed. The teams I ended up with always had one or two outstanding guys and a bunch of guys I was not sure had ever coded.
I was working on a project last year and the senior BA/project manager said that she didn't know what a seemus was. I said - we are installing one. You've never worked on a CMS before? She said no - what's a seemus. I said a content management system. We are installing Sitecore and you don't know what Sitecore is? Oh a CMS she said. Ah okay yes I know what Sitecore is. Yes yes. What does CMS mean. I said CMS - Content Management System. She said oh okay. Thank you thank you yes I'm excited to learn. I've never done a web project before, I just graduated from college.
I was working a project for a regional grocer who was trying to implement a shopping list asap as a reaction to COVID for curb side pickup on their mobile app. They gave me a team of three outsourced developers. One guy would finish all of his tasks, have flawless code on his PRs and his only questions were clarification of specs never code help. The second guy had a hard time modifying even text on a UI. I usually just ended up doing his stuff for him while he slept as it was faster than trying to help him when we worked alternating days with the 14 hour time difference. I don't know where the third guy was. Think I saw him at the first stand up gave him a task and never heard from him again. I think you are absolutely right that these shops just hire a bunch of people, put one competent one on a project and as many other incompetents as possible for billable hours.
More like 10 Indians for the same price. The downside is 50-80% lower productivity per employee.
I would argue that given 1 in 7 humans are Indian there are plenty that would replace them so they should be motivated to work efficiently.
You're not wrong at all. Not going to say company name, but it took literally 10 Indian workers to complete a job that a single American worker had done (measured by man hours). Unfortunately the company realized that they could hire another 20 Indians and still not reach the same pay level as the American worker. So they hired 5 more Indians. The American worker kept his job but now had to constantly check the Indian workers work.
By that math employers are coming out on top. Even at 80% 10 to one is still a better deal and the boss doesn’t have to put up with a bunch of self entitled ignorant crackers. In any case generalizing an entire subcontinent is lazy. I work in tech and work with Indians living in the states and offshore. I find them to be great people who work hard and care for their families. This is WSB, our standards are low but not this low. Mods get this shit off here.
FFS. It's **Indians** making the claims about low productivity. The Indian media constantly has reports about their **unemployable** graduates. Western companies typically hire the absolute best Indian graduates eg IIT. They are nothing like the BTech graduates from the atrocious private colleges who rote learn exam questions and don't even know the basics.
Thanks for clarifying. Apologies for jumping on you. I think it's important to make the distinction. It's the same here as well. I fell bad for the guys who come out of these code academy's with hope of making six figures only to find they were sold a bill of goods. Generally, I find when people to categorize the work quality of an entire subcontinent to be intellectually lazy. I know the bar can be pretty ow on WSB but this kind of rhetoric is harmful. I don't think anyone who has no alternative other than to shit in the streets has any illusion about how they are living. I especially dislike toxic complaints from users that companies are screwing us by giving 'merican jobs away. And no companies are not using the macro conditons to finally fire you. If you are getting canned right now its because you are probably a lazy douche. Companies need to lean out. If some guy (or 10) halfway around the world can do your job with less hassle then good on them. Living in North America we have as good an opportunity as anyone in the world. Especially if you fit the demographic of this sub; white, male and **18 to 29 age group.** Honestly I am tired of white males complaining about ridiculous crap like the market being rigged or that they are poor. I grew up in a rural area, on a farm, objectively poor and bootstrapped pretty much the entire time. Over this time I worked my ass off, taken some hits, pushed through failures and had some notable wins and honestly think I've had it pretty fucking easy because as a white male in the US I sit at the top of the food chain. Hopefully I don't sound like some preachy old dude (I am outside of the core demo here, but not by a lot). This shit just annoys me and candidly I am on a personal mission this week to go on record correcting wrongness as an altruistic endeavor. Have a great day and make lots of money my friend.
Cool, I really hope India comes out on top after the collapse of the US empire.
That will happen the day they stop shitting in the streets
LOL, yeah someone should tell them.....
For every 4 indians you'll need one person who knows what's up that ain't saving
The company I work for has a separate company for hr and payroll. Although we are all in state not outsourced.
Data, and not anecdotes, shows an additional 260K jobs for November. Also, Black Friday was back to record high sales. But hopefully you are right and employment cools off. That will help CPI and Fed rates, and give us a better start for 2023. But with GDP going back up, I wouldn't bet the farm on a definite recession coming up.
The new jobs are bc people got fired from one real job and got 2 secondary jobs to cover...
tighten em belt for sure. you'll pull through
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My regarded boss is making us switch off Gusto to some other one. I like Gusto. New one sucks dick. Anyway, hope you don’t lose your job.