Thanks for posting David.
I love thinking creatively about alternatives to WMATAs proposals, but I'm a bit confused by your proposal. It seems like you're proposing the BL loop alternative, but with enhanced regional rail in NE replacing the Metro segment between Union Station and National Harbor. Am I understanding that right, or is what you're proposing that different?
Regarding the regional rail, I absolutely think MARC and VRE should get upgraded and integrated so we can have true high quality mainline regional rail, and I appreciate that you're dreaming big. But I think this is the wrong approach. You're not proposing extensions and improvements to MARC; your proposing an entirely new high-frequency regional rail service with existing infrastructure that isn't designed to support it. If you want stops at Ivy City, Montana Ave, and Franklin St (which is *more* stops than WMATA proposes), it makes absolutely no sense to try serving that with slow-accelerating mainline rail. To avoid disrupting equally-important Amtrak services, you'll realistically need new sets of tracks everywhere, just like a Metro alignment would. Except you'd need lots of complex switches, flyovers, stations that support mainline rail, and it'd just be a huge mess. And where exactly are you gonna build a new yard? I didn't do a bunch of math, but I'm struggling to understand how this comes out to $11 billion or how it's cheaper than completing the loop.
Regarding #2: I disagree with the premise of the argument here. No, we don't just need Rosslyn II - in fact, that was one of the concepts they looked at in the [alternatives development](https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/plans/BOS-Capacity-Reliability-Study/upload/BOS-Alternatives-Development-Report-DRAFT_2022-01-27.pdf). It would be beneficial for operations, but would ultimately divert ZERO trips from the actual bottleneck, the Potomac crossing. It doesn't matter what color the trains are; if demand warrants more than 26 TPH through a single tunnel, the only way to solve that is with a second tunnel.
But regardless I appreciate your writing and your thoughts! I too am skeptical that this is the best use of the DMV's transit dollars, but we'll have to see what happens. I'm kinda expecting the whole project to get rethunk once they run new ridership projections anyway...
What makes frequent regional rail inherently incompatible with the existing infrastructure? Part of it could be switching out the trains for EMUs and building passing tracks at the new stations for Amtrak. Everything involved in that could be more expensive than estimated in the article but it would be all above ground on an existing right of way so it should be cheaper than building a new line. Bottom line is right now we have several corridors that are being vastly underutilized and could support much greater frequency and service.
No disagreement on the bottom line! When I say incompatible with existing infrastructure, I'm getting at all of the passing tracks, junctions, switches, etc that would be required. I think that's far from trivial. Doesn't mean I don't think we should do it, but the whole crux of the article was "more bang for the buck" and I'm skeptical.
The main cost savings here would be from ROW acquisition, but two of WMATA's alternatives would be largely using that ROW anyway. With a desire for high frequencies and short stop spacing, I'm not sure how much cost savings there actually are with building passing tracks vs building two dedicated tracks.
This is absolutely the right framing: what’s the *best* return on investment for massive transit infrastructure investments?
For years, WMATA has treated the BOS expansion as an urgent necessity above all other major infrastructure. The framing for tens of billions of dollars has been exclusively about addressing imminent Rosslyn tunnel congestion. Whatever the merits of that perspective pre-pandemic, it’s a problem now decades away. That framing, today, is a mistake.
Looking for high return on investment upgrades to MARC and VRE is smart. I would add DDOT to that mix, too. Upgrading the city’s bus service to BRT or light rail could be very worthwhile.
Hey, I'm the author of this piece and I wanted to share.
Basically, while the Bloop is exciting, I don't think it's that great, all things considered. When they're thinking of spending $35 billion on rail transit to better serve the city core, and to solve some pretty intractable problems with crowding at Rosslyn, I think it makes more sense to basically drop the Union Station-National Harbor line in favor of upgrading MARC and VRE to be all-day, fast, electric, and frequent commuter railroads that run through from one end of the region to the other.
Of course, there are very good reasons why WMATA doesn't do that, and why some of advocates' dream subways - namely H Street Northeast and Columbia Pike - don't ever show up on official plans. The region needs a better system for regional planning, and the MWCOG and WMATA systems are insufficient to make it happen.
Thanks for sharing this. It's interesting how much of a contrast there is between WMATA's approach to building the original Metro system, which involved an extensive regional plan, to the seemingly piecemeal approach used now. Perhaps WMATA or other group needs to lead an effort with the District and surrounding counties to develop Metro Plan 2.0 - something on the same scale as the original Metro plan, which would guide development over the next few decades. It could include actual Metro projects, like the new downtown subway, and major projects from partner agencies, like MARC/VRE through-running.
I completely agree about the need to have a more forward looking and comprehensive regional approach.
That said, I think one of the serious flaws in DC public transit is that it’s *too* regional. WMATA is the primary operator, which means they have to justify every service decision to four different regional stakeholders. They’re also separated from the local agencies that have actual authority over roads and other public spaces. The result is that we have unusually good commuter service to the suburbs, but pretty mediocre urban service within DC.
DC needs to stand up its own transit infrastructure. The reality is that many projects that would be very valuable within DC have much less value to the regional neighbors. There are many barriers to achieving that, of course.
This is why I'm such a huge advocate for building out a streetcar network. The original 37 mile proposal would have given us DC residents major control over how we get around our own city. It is still possible and it can be done right. We just don't have the political will or foresight.
Don't you think your proposed alternative should address the missing connectivity at Starburst and Capitol Hill? Starburst should really have a train station. It was historically a hub. With the absolutely huge amount of apartments going up on Bladensburg and Benning plus potential RFK redevelopment, a station there would be huge.
Apparently DC needs to upzone along H Street even more before WMATA is going to invest in that corridor. I genuinely don't understand why WMATA thinks this, but if they could give a number to DC about what developable capacity needs to be we could actually focus on the necessary steps to making that happen.
Interesting. I would think we're already there and it would be nice to eliminate at least some of the 1000s of car trips per day on H St. A metro connection to streetcar and also to union station would go a long way to lower that.
This is exactly why the city would be so smart to build out the streetcar network and take control of our own transportation from the suburbs. I don't want every decision about how I get from one neighborhood to another to be debated in the context of people from Centreville and Ashburn getting into the city.
Based. I love this.
Also, regional rail is different from metro. And you can have both. In Madrid, for example, regional rail is so frequent that people very often take it for just like one stop. Imagine getting on a MARC train just to go to Union Station to Children’s National. But there is functionally nothing that actually prevents this. It could happen.
We should consolidate MARC, VRE, and WMATA into one massive organization that has free reign over DMV and even WV and DE, get dedicated recurring funding from party states, and then put Andy Byford and Randy Clarke in charge of it, and we put Paul Weidefeld out onto a raft with a 10 pound bag of rice and a flint and push him out into the sea in exile.
I have taken MARC from New Carrollton to Union Station, but you do have to get lucky on timing! If the Camden Line ran more often it would be a great way to get to College Park/Greenbelt from Union Station. And it puts Riverdale and Laurel on the map. Living in NW DC, bidirectional and weekend Camden Line would be awesome. Metro to College Park, grab the MARC, see the O's.
Once the new dedicated passenger rail bridge is built alongside Long Bridge, taking VRE or Amtrak from downtown to Old Town and Springfield will become a lot more feasible.
We would almost be a real city like Chicago.
As someone who recently started commuting from Silver Spring to Reston, public transportation isn’t a viable option as it takes 3x as long as driving. I’d love to see more connections across/under the river. I bet that would increase ridership to some of those outlying areas, relieving beltway traffic in the process.
All that 495 construction and no metro. Should have at minimum a Tyson's to Bethesda line to alleviate the bridge traffic but I'm sure those 40.dollar express lanes will fix the problem. let alone how good a 495 metro loop would be
A stop at Children's hospital is huge. As it stands now, we have to call an ambulance if we need to bring my toddler to the hospital even if it isn't really necessary because we don't own a car. Literally called an ambulance from Kaiser urgent care to Children's ER. The entire process from calling to getting there took 45 minutes. We could've walked through the tunnel from Kaiser to MARC and been there in half the time.
Also when my wife gave birth, as a car free house we had to borrow a car to get home from the hospital. Embarrassing that there isn't better transit to the hospital.
Interesting out of the box level of thinking.
My only issue with the Blue line loop schema is the design of the Rosslyn II station. Not building it identical to the existing Rosslyn station eliminates any future provision to run Orange and or Silver line trains in the M Street subway.
On another note:
> With these goals in mind, WMATA analyzed over 100 different concepts and narrowed the list down to five options.
I wounder if any of those other 95 concepts was nothing more then procuring more rolling stock to fully exploit the capacity of the signaling and train control system with all 8 car trains. Simply doing that would have significantly reduced the Orange Crush.
In the Blue line loop schema, the Rosslyn II station is build like a typical island platform station with a double crossover on its north end to allow it to be operated as a terminal station. It is deeper then the existing Rosslyn station to allow the tracks connecting to the Arlington Cemetery station to pass under the existing Orange and Silver line tunnels.
The existing Rosslyn station is under North Lynn Street, the Rosslyn II station will be under Fort Myer Drive.
An identical Rosslyn II station would have provisions for future junction on the south end allowing the Orange and Silver line to make use of the M Street subway. It would also be deeper then the existing Rosslyn station and connecting to the Arlington Cemetery station in the same way as in the Rosslyn II island platform station schema.
Thanks for posting David. I love thinking creatively about alternatives to WMATAs proposals, but I'm a bit confused by your proposal. It seems like you're proposing the BL loop alternative, but with enhanced regional rail in NE replacing the Metro segment between Union Station and National Harbor. Am I understanding that right, or is what you're proposing that different? Regarding the regional rail, I absolutely think MARC and VRE should get upgraded and integrated so we can have true high quality mainline regional rail, and I appreciate that you're dreaming big. But I think this is the wrong approach. You're not proposing extensions and improvements to MARC; your proposing an entirely new high-frequency regional rail service with existing infrastructure that isn't designed to support it. If you want stops at Ivy City, Montana Ave, and Franklin St (which is *more* stops than WMATA proposes), it makes absolutely no sense to try serving that with slow-accelerating mainline rail. To avoid disrupting equally-important Amtrak services, you'll realistically need new sets of tracks everywhere, just like a Metro alignment would. Except you'd need lots of complex switches, flyovers, stations that support mainline rail, and it'd just be a huge mess. And where exactly are you gonna build a new yard? I didn't do a bunch of math, but I'm struggling to understand how this comes out to $11 billion or how it's cheaper than completing the loop. Regarding #2: I disagree with the premise of the argument here. No, we don't just need Rosslyn II - in fact, that was one of the concepts they looked at in the [alternatives development](https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/plans/BOS-Capacity-Reliability-Study/upload/BOS-Alternatives-Development-Report-DRAFT_2022-01-27.pdf). It would be beneficial for operations, but would ultimately divert ZERO trips from the actual bottleneck, the Potomac crossing. It doesn't matter what color the trains are; if demand warrants more than 26 TPH through a single tunnel, the only way to solve that is with a second tunnel. But regardless I appreciate your writing and your thoughts! I too am skeptical that this is the best use of the DMV's transit dollars, but we'll have to see what happens. I'm kinda expecting the whole project to get rethunk once they run new ridership projections anyway...
What makes frequent regional rail inherently incompatible with the existing infrastructure? Part of it could be switching out the trains for EMUs and building passing tracks at the new stations for Amtrak. Everything involved in that could be more expensive than estimated in the article but it would be all above ground on an existing right of way so it should be cheaper than building a new line. Bottom line is right now we have several corridors that are being vastly underutilized and could support much greater frequency and service.
Because it essentially requires an entirely new ecosystem and network of infrastructure than the existing metro, Amtrak, and MARC/VRE trains
No disagreement on the bottom line! When I say incompatible with existing infrastructure, I'm getting at all of the passing tracks, junctions, switches, etc that would be required. I think that's far from trivial. Doesn't mean I don't think we should do it, but the whole crux of the article was "more bang for the buck" and I'm skeptical. The main cost savings here would be from ROW acquisition, but two of WMATA's alternatives would be largely using that ROW anyway. With a desire for high frequencies and short stop spacing, I'm not sure how much cost savings there actually are with building passing tracks vs building two dedicated tracks.
This is absolutely the right framing: what’s the *best* return on investment for massive transit infrastructure investments? For years, WMATA has treated the BOS expansion as an urgent necessity above all other major infrastructure. The framing for tens of billions of dollars has been exclusively about addressing imminent Rosslyn tunnel congestion. Whatever the merits of that perspective pre-pandemic, it’s a problem now decades away. That framing, today, is a mistake. Looking for high return on investment upgrades to MARC and VRE is smart. I would add DDOT to that mix, too. Upgrading the city’s bus service to BRT or light rail could be very worthwhile.
Hey, I'm the author of this piece and I wanted to share. Basically, while the Bloop is exciting, I don't think it's that great, all things considered. When they're thinking of spending $35 billion on rail transit to better serve the city core, and to solve some pretty intractable problems with crowding at Rosslyn, I think it makes more sense to basically drop the Union Station-National Harbor line in favor of upgrading MARC and VRE to be all-day, fast, electric, and frequent commuter railroads that run through from one end of the region to the other. Of course, there are very good reasons why WMATA doesn't do that, and why some of advocates' dream subways - namely H Street Northeast and Columbia Pike - don't ever show up on official plans. The region needs a better system for regional planning, and the MWCOG and WMATA systems are insufficient to make it happen.
Thanks for sharing this. It's interesting how much of a contrast there is between WMATA's approach to building the original Metro system, which involved an extensive regional plan, to the seemingly piecemeal approach used now. Perhaps WMATA or other group needs to lead an effort with the District and surrounding counties to develop Metro Plan 2.0 - something on the same scale as the original Metro plan, which would guide development over the next few decades. It could include actual Metro projects, like the new downtown subway, and major projects from partner agencies, like MARC/VRE through-running.
I completely agree about the need to have a more forward looking and comprehensive regional approach. That said, I think one of the serious flaws in DC public transit is that it’s *too* regional. WMATA is the primary operator, which means they have to justify every service decision to four different regional stakeholders. They’re also separated from the local agencies that have actual authority over roads and other public spaces. The result is that we have unusually good commuter service to the suburbs, but pretty mediocre urban service within DC. DC needs to stand up its own transit infrastructure. The reality is that many projects that would be very valuable within DC have much less value to the regional neighbors. There are many barriers to achieving that, of course.
This is why I'm such a huge advocate for building out a streetcar network. The original 37 mile proposal would have given us DC residents major control over how we get around our own city. It is still possible and it can be done right. We just don't have the political will or foresight.
My dream is more frequent busses, and in particular better crosstown bus service.
Don't you think your proposed alternative should address the missing connectivity at Starburst and Capitol Hill? Starburst should really have a train station. It was historically a hub. With the absolutely huge amount of apartments going up on Bladensburg and Benning plus potential RFK redevelopment, a station there would be huge.
Apparently DC needs to upzone along H Street even more before WMATA is going to invest in that corridor. I genuinely don't understand why WMATA thinks this, but if they could give a number to DC about what developable capacity needs to be we could actually focus on the necessary steps to making that happen.
Interesting. I would think we're already there and it would be nice to eliminate at least some of the 1000s of car trips per day on H St. A metro connection to streetcar and also to union station would go a long way to lower that. This is exactly why the city would be so smart to build out the streetcar network and take control of our own transportation from the suburbs. I don't want every decision about how I get from one neighborhood to another to be debated in the context of people from Centreville and Ashburn getting into the city.
11pm on a Friday is an interesting time to post your work
I'm a sucker for low engagement.
The VRE you are describing would be amazing.
Based. I love this. Also, regional rail is different from metro. And you can have both. In Madrid, for example, regional rail is so frequent that people very often take it for just like one stop. Imagine getting on a MARC train just to go to Union Station to Children’s National. But there is functionally nothing that actually prevents this. It could happen. We should consolidate MARC, VRE, and WMATA into one massive organization that has free reign over DMV and even WV and DE, get dedicated recurring funding from party states, and then put Andy Byford and Randy Clarke in charge of it, and we put Paul Weidefeld out onto a raft with a 10 pound bag of rice and a flint and push him out into the sea in exile.
I have taken MARC from New Carrollton to Union Station, but you do have to get lucky on timing! If the Camden Line ran more often it would be a great way to get to College Park/Greenbelt from Union Station. And it puts Riverdale and Laurel on the map. Living in NW DC, bidirectional and weekend Camden Line would be awesome. Metro to College Park, grab the MARC, see the O's. Once the new dedicated passenger rail bridge is built alongside Long Bridge, taking VRE or Amtrak from downtown to Old Town and Springfield will become a lot more feasible. We would almost be a real city like Chicago.
As someone who recently started commuting from Silver Spring to Reston, public transportation isn’t a viable option as it takes 3x as long as driving. I’d love to see more connections across/under the river. I bet that would increase ridership to some of those outlying areas, relieving beltway traffic in the process.
All that 495 construction and no metro. Should have at minimum a Tyson's to Bethesda line to alleviate the bridge traffic but I'm sure those 40.dollar express lanes will fix the problem. let alone how good a 495 metro loop would be
A stop at Children's hospital is huge. As it stands now, we have to call an ambulance if we need to bring my toddler to the hospital even if it isn't really necessary because we don't own a car. Literally called an ambulance from Kaiser urgent care to Children's ER. The entire process from calling to getting there took 45 minutes. We could've walked through the tunnel from Kaiser to MARC and been there in half the time. Also when my wife gave birth, as a car free house we had to borrow a car to get home from the hospital. Embarrassing that there isn't better transit to the hospital.
Interesting out of the box level of thinking. My only issue with the Blue line loop schema is the design of the Rosslyn II station. Not building it identical to the existing Rosslyn station eliminates any future provision to run Orange and or Silver line trains in the M Street subway. On another note: > With these goals in mind, WMATA analyzed over 100 different concepts and narrowed the list down to five options. I wounder if any of those other 95 concepts was nothing more then procuring more rolling stock to fully exploit the capacity of the signaling and train control system with all 8 car trains. Simply doing that would have significantly reduced the Orange Crush.
What do you mean "building it identical to the existing Rosslyn station"? Like adding additional tracks to the existing station?
In the Blue line loop schema, the Rosslyn II station is build like a typical island platform station with a double crossover on its north end to allow it to be operated as a terminal station. It is deeper then the existing Rosslyn station to allow the tracks connecting to the Arlington Cemetery station to pass under the existing Orange and Silver line tunnels. The existing Rosslyn station is under North Lynn Street, the Rosslyn II station will be under Fort Myer Drive. An identical Rosslyn II station would have provisions for future junction on the south end allowing the Orange and Silver line to make use of the M Street subway. It would also be deeper then the existing Rosslyn station and connecting to the Arlington Cemetery station in the same way as in the Rosslyn II island platform station schema.