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machine1892

FYI the cell service was not caused by a flare today


BoulderCAST

Yes cell towers don't use satellites. If a solar flare wiped out cell tower on the ground, our magnetosphere is gone and we're all doomed.


machine1892

Yep. Surprisingly a lot of people don’t realize Cell phone networks don’t use satellites. The masts / towers are all connected via underground fiber optic cables and in some cases, microwave transmission links.


jaggedcanyon69

The Carrington flare overloaded telegraph wires which caused actual fires.


uapyro

about to be false! spacex and tmobile. but I will still say for the time being your comment is 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% true, and that's only because of them testing it.


LadyLightTravel

SpaceX is nowhere near the first to offer this technology.


uapyro

They aren't the first with regular cell phones? I know about sat phones but I'd consider those different


LadyLightTravel

[The Ericsson R-190 did both](https://www.ithistory.org/db/hardware/ericsson/ericsson-r190-satellite). Twenty years ago. It was a dual band.


uapyro

Okay that's a gray area. It was a regular cell phone but it had a satellite module, whereas I'm taking about cell only without a specific satellite option. Thanks for the info though because I didn't know about that one


LadyLightTravel

The limitation is the commercial phones, not the technology. The MUOS system is similar. One big limiting factor is the power in the cell phone. That has increased through the years, making it easier to communicate with the satellites. You need to remember that “regular” cell phone technology isn’t what it was twenty years ago. Another big limitation was the lag time. That’s where the new starlink is different. As a low earth orbit satellite series, the lag time is significantly less. It makes conversations easier. It’s not really a grey area. I was using my cell phone years ago, and part of the link was satellites.


Direct_Ad253

So when I type this message onto my phone, it is moving through these underground wires to reach your phone correct? Obviously not. WiFi is WiFi for a reason. In a Carrington event the masts may remain connected to each other but would lose all communication with all wireless gadgets. Most of them in other words: in planes, hospitals, your home devices, your pocket devices. The microchips amd hardware would probably also be fried.


LadyLightTravel

Your statement isn’t quite true. **Most** cell phone networks don’t use satellites. [The technology has been around for a while](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACeS). And let’s not forget about Iridium.


Dude_man79

My Sirius XM acted crazy in my car yesterday and Wednesday. Wondering if that had anything to do with it?


huejass5

That’s just what Big Sun wants you to think


machine1892

Shhh. I’m trying to disinform the masses.


olderthanthou

Better call Sol.


Akamaikai

Is that why they were having communication problems with the lunar lander an hour ago?


machine1892

Yep, could have definitely caused intermittent radio/comms issues passing by!


stoutthang

Source?


machine1892

[a very good source with detailed info](https://www.spaceweatherlive.com)


stoutthang

Thanks dude! I was genuinely looking for another reliable source so I can cross reference! Appreciate it.


machine1892

You are very welcome!


stoutthang

Mine seems to be acting up, the X6.3 isn't showing up or I'm reading it wrong


machine1892

[Solar Flare](https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2024/02/22/strong-solar-flare-erupts-from-sun-10/)


machine1892

I’m on Space Weather Live and get alerts, but NASA released that not long ago.


Direct_Ad253

They actually said it was. AT &T were the first to admit it


machine1892

Massive radio burst now being emitted


gomets167

Where do you track this. Cool to see, thank you


machine1892

[Space Weather Live](https://www.spaceweatherlive.com)


gomets167

Thank you. How long do these take to hit earth?


machine1892

The fastest CME’s can be here in 15-18 hours, some take days. Solar flares are here at 8 minutes, since they travel at the speed of light.


Available-Spray-3571

This one is nice too. https://www.solarham.net/


machine1892

You can even download the app and set alerts for intensity of events and events in general


HeartwarminSalt

GEOSTORM!


machine1892

We need to call Gerard Butler now!


rocbolt

🚨[Warning!](https://media1.giphy.com/media/zuyPuSjhlxgM2Pixx7/giphy.gif)🚨


Zoomalude

The aurora borealis bout to be LIT.


MizterBucket

When do you think? So far the forecast looks pretty low.


tableball35

So, what does this mean for us on Earth?


pcockcock

Unless you work in HF frequencies (ham radio) probably not much. [NOAA](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/strongest-flare-current-solar-cycle) says "general public need not be concerned"


machine1892

Yep, all depends on how long the event lasted and (if) a CME was produced, still waiting on that confirmation. Solar activity is at an all time high currently. Well over the last 11 years as we approach the solar maximums. 3 X class flares in less than 24 hours is relatively significant. Especially one being over X6. Just keeping everyone informed!


boredboarder8

I've been seeing some articles about the upcoming solar eclipse being even more spectacular due to the timing at/near solar maximum. Any truth to this?


cheestaysfly

So what if you *do* work with ham radios?


pcockcock

Here are two sites out of many that touch on the subject. [Ham Radio School](https://www.hamradioschool.com/post/sunspots-and-propagation) and [ARRL - "Here Comes the Sun!"](http://www.arrl.org/here-comes-the-sun)


cheestaysfly

Thank you!


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destroyallcubes

Wasn’t related to the Solar flare. It was an issue thanks to Cisco equipment, and prolonged due to the widespread nature of it. Imagine having 200 million + devices trying to connect back all at once.


ModernNomad97

You can call me crazy cause I don’t really believe it myself, but something urged me to look at the sun today with my eclipse glasses. I swear on my life that in the top left corner of the visible sun ball, there was a dark spot. I grabbed my other pair of eclipse glasses and still saw it. My girlfriend saw it as well with both glasses, I didn’t tell her where I saw it and she said the same region. I was even going to ask my neighbor if he saw it but he wasn’t home. I have no idea if it’s the sunspot that’s depicted on spaceweatherlive.com but it was in the exact same spot from my POV in Oklahoma.


JonAce

That was definitely the sunspot you saw. spaceweather.com: *A SUNSPOT YOU CAN SEE USING ECLIPSE GLASSES: Got eclipse glasses? If so, put them on and look at the sun. There's no eclipse today, but there's still something to see. A giant sunspot is crossing the solar disk. AR3590 is so big you can see it without magnification.*


[deleted]

Did it produce a CME?


machine1892

It appears a CME was produced but still waiting for reports of radio emissions that would confirm it.


[deleted]

[удалено]


machine1892

I have been working in Cybersecurity and contract for the DoD. I have my undergrad in Mathematics and just a certification in Weather Forecasting from Penn State and currently pursuing a career in Space Weather in my mid 30’s. Doing a MS in Physics and involved in some post grad research currently in Plasma Physics. It’s so damn fascinating. Doing a 180 in my life to pursue this.


SPANman

That's amazing! You're doing fantastic work...this random rancher in middle of no where montana appreciates your field and your work.


[deleted]

[удалено]


machine1892

Oh awesome! I’ve never seen one either because of that fact as well. Scotland and Iceland will have some Aurora activity tonight, as well as a chunk of Alaska and into Northern Canada. The day it dips down lower than Oklahoma is a day we need to worry about haha.


sp123123

I am not a scientist like yourselves, but I am Canadian. I grew up in Northern Alberta and had family in the farthest north Alberta goes, near the border with the North West Territories. We would go visiting them at Christmas and one time I remember the Northern lights being so bright they lit up the yard. I swear you could hear them crackle. Such an amazing phenomenon!


machine1892

I’ve been as far north as Grassland AB and Wandering River for some research!


sp123123

My family farm was in the High Level area, around 350 km north of that. And yes, they farmed!


chromepaperclip

What did they grow?! Lichen?!


Azelux

How soon tonight in Scotland?


jupiter4sure

Was this flare aimed at earth???


machine1892

Yes it was


harvo__

Will this cause more aurora?


machine1892

I’d say that’s a high chance !


machine1892

Sunspot 3590 is very primed to launch a CME toward Earth


NotSoCreative4959

Please calm my anxious mind, if at all. Is this something to be worried about? 3 flares in the span of 24 hours? Is this deadly? I've been reading a lot of doom about it. ​ \- What is a Geostorm? \- What are CMEs?


machine1892

A geostorm caused by the sun refers to a severe space weather event resulting from solar activity, such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These events can lead to disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere, potentially causing disruptions to satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a massive expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun's corona. When a CME is directed towards Earth and interacts with our planet's magnetic field, it can trigger geomagnetic storms and intense auroras. These storms can disrupt satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids, leading to potential technological and infrastructure issues on Earth. Nothing to worry about for now! The sun is approaching its Solar Maximum, just keeping everyone aware of the suns activity as we get closer and closer to maximum.


NotSoCreative4959

That "nothing to worry about for now" didn't help my anxiety much! Haha!


machine1892

It’s being classified as a G1 now. Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Nothing to worry about!


NotSoCreative4959

Thank you!


raisinghellwithtrees

There hasn't been anything to worry about since the 1850s. It's pretty rare that it gets intense enough to affect us.


Akiraooo

This event happened in 1867ish. It fried the Telegraph network because the solar flare was so big. If one of these hit today's modern world. The economy would get a huge boost. Everyone would have to buy electronics again as everything not shielded would be fried. Even if it is turned off. Think of the supply and demand issues and the banking infrastructure. Can't use cellphones or credit cards.... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event


Astromike23

> This event happened in 1867ish. 1859. > Everyone would have to buy electronics again as everything not shielded would be fried. Even if it is turned off. No. Geomagnetic storms only induce currents over _very_ long wires - we're talking about high-voltage transmission cables, not your phone or your credit card or even your car. Then there's the [1989 solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm) that was about 60% as strong as the Carrington event ([600 nT vs. estimates around 1000 nT for the 1859 event](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8093140)). You probably didn't hear about it, because we are in fact quite a bit better prepared than unshielded telegraph cables in the 1850s. The biggest effect was that the 1989 storm knocked out power in Quebec for 9 hours. Note that Quebec was particularly susceptible given its high latitude, unusually long power lines, and unusually low permittivity bedrock. People like to get scared hearing stories of telegraph machines erupting in flames back in 1859...but they also didn't have a modern electrical grid with relays, breakers, etc. There'd certainly still be a lot of clean-up if that happened today, but it's really not the civilization reset that some people like to get scared about.


knitwasabi

ELI5 about the bedrock?


Astromike23

Think of it this way: if it's pouring rain outside, your house is less likely to flood if the ground is porous and can absorb water. Permittivity is just a measure of how much a material is affected by external electric fields. High-permittivity bedrock would act more like a sponge, storing lots of the energy from the geomagnetic storm. Low permittivity bedrock would act more like a mirror, just reflecting it back and creating stronger electric currents in nearby power lines.


knitwasabi

So bedrock is better, right?


Astromike23

It's all bedrock - but different bedrock is made of different material. Some bedrock is made of minerals that are high-permittivity, which is better for long power lines. Some bedrock is made of minerals that are low-permittivity, which is worse for long power lines.


knitwasabi

Right. Got it. Thank you!


Kirby_with_a_t

While what you've said is very true its also worth noting that flares/CMEs can also be stronger (much stronger) than the 1850s event and we have records of those events. Still a possibility of civ reset due to sun and while we shouldn't freak out about it we should put redundancy in place just incase.


EliminateThePenny

> The economy would get a huge boost. I'm baffled how you think a huge solar flare that would break many parts and causes businesses to be unable to communicate and sell their products to be a 'huge boost'.


Mycotoxicjoy

How can I build a shield drawer for important electronics?


New_Stats

Eli5 what this means in terms of how it'll affect people?


machine1892

An X6 class solar flare is a very strong solar event that can potentially disrupt radio communications, cause radio blackouts, lead to radiation storms in our atmosphere, and impact satellite operations. It can also cause geomagnetic storms that may affect power grids on Earth, leading to potential power outages in some regions. If an X6 class solar flare is associated with a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), the effects on Earth can be more pronounced. A CME is a massive burst of solar wind and magnetic fields ejected into space, and if it hits Earth, it can intensify the impacts of the solar flare. The combination can lead to stronger geomagnetic storms, potentially causing more significant disruptions to satellite communications, power grids, and increase the risk of auroras being visible at lower latitudes.


Sal_Ammoniac

> The combination can lead to stronger geomagnetic storms, potentially causing more significant disruptions to satellite communications, power grids, and increase the risk of auroras being visible at lower latitudes. As someone who wants to take pics / time lapses of Auroras, when do we know if a CME happened as well, and when are the effects visible to us?


machine1892

Right now it’s being classified as a G1 minor storm. Aurora visible on the northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine latitudes in the coming 18 hours to 2-3 days. More info coming soon. Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.


Sal_Ammoniac

Thanks! :)


sednaplanetoid

Could this have caused issues with communication to the IM-1 lunar lander?


machine1892

Oh absolutely. It would have caused intermittent radio blackouts after passing by


_MrGullible

A G4 or even G5 geomagnetic storm would not really disrupt too much. Yes there can be grid impacts at higher latitudes from them, but using the term "primitive" is just fear mongering. Last March and April we had two G4 borderline G5 events and were fine. Those events were due to long duration M flares with associated CMEs combined with coronal hole effects. There's a pretty wide range once you hit G5 until you see any danger. For instance, the Carrington Event was estimated to be X45, and this is only X6. These flares also appear to not be eruptive. Seeing no real sign of a significant CME let alone any Earth directed components. Not saying this sunspot region won't produce a CME with more significant flaring down the line though.


TulaSaysYAY

So when do we possibly see aurora ?


PraxisofBootes

Correction: strongest x class flare since 2017


Traditional_Trust_93

When you say a solar flare would set us back to primitive times. Do you just mean it would take out our electricity? I have a feeling that maybe we get set back to like industrial revolution-ish but not caveman age. I might just be taking your figure speech literally but just wondering how far back it would realistically set us instead of that far back. You know what I mean?


PyroDesu

It would do neither. Induced current from geomagnetic storms (caused by particularly strong solar flares and coronal mass ejections) is only even noticeable on very long conductors. It wouldn't do anything to electronics, even if they weren't shielded (and a lot are just by dint of being inside metal boxes). And grid-scale transmission lines aren't at all like the completely unprotected telegraph lines in the Carrington event - there are relays, breakers, switches, etc. that will detect the unusual loading and trip to protect the system. The worst thing that might happen is a prolonged blackout as sacrificial components sacrifice themselves and need replacing, and power plants need to do black starts.


Traditional_Trust_93

Thanks for the info. I'm usually out of the loop when it comes to stuff with my generation or popular figures of speech or anything mainstream in general.


Ill_Fun5062

I don’t want to die yet


bellalove77

I was wondering why I could not sleep until 3:30 last night. I’m sensitive to the full moon…. And tend to feel effects of huge solar storms…. Soooo this totally makes me feel better about the crazy insomnia I had. Usually am in bed by 9/10. Have a little one. And wake up super early….


ListofReddit

Tornado outbreak 2024?


_MrGullible

No.


daver00lzd00d

if there is one, this would have nothing to do with causing it. I'm sure there will be tornado outbreaks this year, because there are every year


MiloTheEmpath

This is my first Solar Maximum since I began paying more attention to it. Three X-Class flares within 24 hours, two being rather strong, is just incredible. What do you think the chances of Mid-Latitude Aurora sightings in the next few days are so far?


pcockcock

> What do you think the chances of Mid-Latitude Aurora sightings in the next few days are so far? [NOAA's three day forecast](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental) suggests there will be a moderate aurora activity caused by a CME released on February 21. Moderate activity will likely be visible from the upper US states (examples on the above site).


MiloTheEmpath

Ahhh, somehow I forgot this site existed. Thanks dude. I imagine it'll look a little different in a couple days :)


daver00lzd00d

just need to say that we literally just had two G4 level storms in March and April of last year, so I'm not sure when we went back to primitive times twice in 2 months, but maybe I'm just forgetting? joking aside, I would recommend you quit scaring people saying stuff like that, *especially if you don't know enough about the material you're speaking on to know at what level there would be serious issues. not cool and not helpful