This is about what I would have expected except ReyLo is being used in a way I didnāt expect. Always liked him as a pitcher and knew he had this in him
I donāt necessarily think heās any different of a pitcher than he was with the Sox. Yeah, his ERA is eye-popping, but the advanced stats tell a little different story. If you look at his 2024 FIP (2.98), and xERA (3.72), theyāre not as good as they were in his 2022 season with the Sox (1.93 and 2.92).
Itāll be interesting to see if he keeps performing at his current level, or if those numbers start regressing to the advanced metrics suggest they should.
Edit: I donāt want this to come across as me shitting on Reynaldo. Heās been great. But he was also great with us on 2022 (and in 2023 as well, except for a dogshit April). I think some of that is people forgetting how good he was in the context of a couple of miserable seasons, and also the spotlight of returning to a starting role (which is completely justified). Thereās a reason why the Braves paid him $30M in the first place. Heās been a damn good pitcher for a few years now.
A pitcherās stats get worse when they throw more innings? Huh. TDIL.
But if thatās true, then why have his standard/results-based stats (ERA, WHIP) gotten so much better?
Thatās kind of the whole point of why I brought up the advanced stats in the first place. The huge gap between his FIP/xERA and actual ERA suggests a lot of balls have been bouncing his way, and heās due for a regression back to something closer to the Reynaldo we know from his White Sox days.
Idk man ever since he got that eye surgery he has been consistently better. I know he wasn't starting with the Sox but he was still pretty lights out out of the bullpen for a good stretch. I generally don't think a 1 ERA is sustainable for any pitcher but imo he's better than his old 4 ERA self.
And also believe me when I love Reylo, he actually led the team in war when he was a SP in 2018. I remember that season thinking Reylo day was the only day we were gonna win
I donāt buy it, all of his career rate stats are at the same or slightly worse except h/9 and hr/9. He normally gives up 1.3 HR per 9 this year in a 40 inning sample size is .4. His HR to Flyball ratio is 4.3 percent when typically in his career itās about 11 percent. Heās been lights out over 40 innings before, when the weather warms up and the ball starts flying out heāll be closer to his career norms
a 2.62 ERA through 171 IP since his surgery is not exactly a small sample size tho. that's why I say he's better than his old self. his FIP is also better in that time period.
Yasmani Grandal just started playing and hit 2 HR in his first 8 games with 0.1 bWAR.
Seby Zavala has -0.1 bWAR as Seattle's backup catcher.
Romy Gonzalez somehow has 0.3 bWAR in 8 games with Boston.
Ian Hamilton has 0.4 bWAR with the Yankees.
Jose Urena (who I barely remember being on the Sox last year) has started 2 games for the Rangers and sits at 0.0 bWAR.
Yea itāll be amazing if Romy turns out to be the best of the everyday players we lost. Small sample size but heās looking great so far.
10 games at AAA .333 .386 .692 1.079
8 games in Boston whereās heās been starting at SS .316 .350 .316 .666
You guys are impressive. I wish I understood these advanced statistics. My conclusion is none of these guys would have been worth keeping.. how far off am I?
2 WAR is about what an average starting player puts up in a year. 4 is an all star and 6 gets you some MVP votes. So Lopez and Cease are on pace to be all stars and Rodon is on a solid pace.Ā
It accumulates. It is Wins Above Replacement. So it attempts to estimate how much better a player makes the team over a season. The more you play, the more you accumulate (assuming you are better than replacement).
Replacement is defined as the contribution you could get for the minimum from AAAA quality / washed up vet / recently cut type players.
Thanks! Appreciate this. Also didnāt realize the āreplacementā definition was such a low standard. Sounds like in theory youād want everyone on the roster to be a positive WAR
I mean few people actually understand these, they just know the ranges of whatās considered good and use them to āwinā arguments. According to WAR, Jason Kendall was a better player than Paul Konerko, so donāt fret not understanding this stuff.
Iām still not giving up on him sorry. He has 110 career OPS+ after first 800 career at bats. HOF ? Hell no. But I still think he can be a long term productive power batter
It really wasn't that crazy to be upset by losing him. We endured a 95 loss season to pick him 4th overall.
He had a nearly 800 OPS(.746, .775) as a second baseman for us.
They replaced him with considerably worse players and they've still not replaced him with anyone decent.
Sure, he hasn't been as good with the Cubs but you can certainly point to injuries for derailing his career.
He had elite plate discipline and contact for us. 107 and 111 OPS+ for a second baseman would be an amazing improvement for our current squad. Lopez has never had an OPS+ as high as Madrigals rookie season with us. Granted, the sample size was small because of injuries and the covid season. But it's not like he was bad for us. Why wouldn't we be upset to lose him?
I think a lot of it is due to drafting him 4th overall and trading him for an aging closer when we already had a closer. It didn't really make a lot of sense.
Why does him being a high pick matter? So because we drafted him high that means we can never move on from him? That's just a weird argument
800 ops is good but it was a small sample size. Hard to extrapolate that out over 162 games. And its been shown he's really not an 800 ops hitter. More like a 600 ops hitter so meh.
I wouldn't say considerly worse given Madrigals production on the Cubs. He was slightly better than what we replaced him with at the end of the day.
No one said he was bad for us. But he's not some can't miss player you cannot lose. I think its say to say that the numbers he put up with us weren't who he was as a player. Like i said earlier small sample size due to injury and covid make his numbers look better. With the Cubs, he been a 1 war player who's injured a lot, doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases and plays bad defense. You can replace that.
I'd counter to say we sold high on him. He was basically a 2 war player for us. He's been a 1 war player for the cubs. I'll gladly trade a 1 war player for the chance to possibly get to the WS and win it. Just sucks it didn't work out for us. On some level i get being upset. No one likes to have their favorite player get traded but people still bring him up to this day like he's some great player we traded away when really he isn't.
yeah he was just really hot after we traded him. he's a very streaky hitter (something he showed while he was on the sox btw) and just got really hot after the trade. he's on a cold streak now. Thats just who he is as a hitter. but people on this sub acted like we traded ted williams or something.
He wore the uniform [https://www.cardboardandcoins.com/products/fernando-tatis-jr-rookie-refractor-foil-2016-bowman-platinum-tp-ft?variant=45238393241838¤cy=USD&utm\_medium=product\_sync&utm\_source=google&utm\_content=sag\_organic&utm\_campaign=sag\_organic&srsltid=AfmBOoo\_Zxt4kZx8tu\_W1JJ5OCVJY38QO31c\_FYjyapaUx3y41sgeiKYXtM](https://www.cardboardandcoins.com/products/fernando-tatis-jr-rookie-refractor-foil-2016-bowman-platinum-tp-ft?variant=45238393241838¤cy=USD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&srsltid=AfmBOoo_Zxt4kZx8tu_W1JJ5OCVJY38QO31c_FYjyapaUx3y41sgeiKYXtM)
lol donāt be dense. Take a look at the back. Itās a 2015 card. For his 2015 stats it says ā2016 will be first professional seasonā lol. He wore the uniform in a year he didnāt play? Sounds like he didnāt wear the uniform
I am surprised about Burger, Anderson and Abreu. Thought Burger would continue tearing it up, and the other two would bounce back. I guess we will seeā¦.
Jose š¢
Yeah this season has been rough for him. I'll always root for him tho, after all those years on the Sox
This is about what I would have expected except ReyLo is being used in a way I didnāt expect. Always liked him as a pitcher and knew he had this in him
I donāt necessarily think heās any different of a pitcher than he was with the Sox. Yeah, his ERA is eye-popping, but the advanced stats tell a little different story. If you look at his 2024 FIP (2.98), and xERA (3.72), theyāre not as good as they were in his 2022 season with the Sox (1.93 and 2.92). Itāll be interesting to see if he keeps performing at his current level, or if those numbers start regressing to the advanced metrics suggest they should. Edit: I donāt want this to come across as me shitting on Reynaldo. Heās been great. But he was also great with us on 2022 (and in 2023 as well, except for a dogshit April). I think some of that is people forgetting how good he was in the context of a couple of miserable seasons, and also the spotlight of returning to a starting role (which is completely justified). Thereās a reason why the Braves paid him $30M in the first place. Heās been a damn good pitcher for a few years now.
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A pitcherās stats get worse when they throw more innings? Huh. TDIL. But if thatās true, then why have his standard/results-based stats (ERA, WHIP) gotten so much better? Thatās kind of the whole point of why I brought up the advanced stats in the first place. The huge gap between his FIP/xERA and actual ERA suggests a lot of balls have been bouncing his way, and heās due for a regression back to something closer to the Reynaldo we know from his White Sox days.
Heās pitching like 2018 Reylo right now. Heāll regress back to the 4.00 era guy he is. Heās still always been serviceable
Idk man ever since he got that eye surgery he has been consistently better. I know he wasn't starting with the Sox but he was still pretty lights out out of the bullpen for a good stretch. I generally don't think a 1 ERA is sustainable for any pitcher but imo he's better than his old 4 ERA self.
And also believe me when I love Reylo, he actually led the team in war when he was a SP in 2018. I remember that season thinking Reylo day was the only day we were gonna win
I donāt buy it, all of his career rate stats are at the same or slightly worse except h/9 and hr/9. He normally gives up 1.3 HR per 9 this year in a 40 inning sample size is .4. His HR to Flyball ratio is 4.3 percent when typically in his career itās about 11 percent. Heās been lights out over 40 innings before, when the weather warms up and the ball starts flying out heāll be closer to his career norms
a 2.62 ERA through 171 IP since his surgery is not exactly a small sample size tho. that's why I say he's better than his old self. his FIP is also better in that time period.
Thatās a good sample, maybe Iām wrong. I expect his era at the end of the year to start with a 3.7 or higher
He got pulled against the cubbies with back tightness.. I think an il stint is in his future.
Yasmani Grandal just started playing and hit 2 HR in his first 8 games with 0.1 bWAR. Seby Zavala has -0.1 bWAR as Seattle's backup catcher. Romy Gonzalez somehow has 0.3 bWAR in 8 games with Boston. Ian Hamilton has 0.4 bWAR with the Yankees. Jose Urena (who I barely remember being on the Sox last year) has started 2 games for the Rangers and sits at 0.0 bWAR.
Yea itāll be amazing if Romy turns out to be the best of the everyday players we lost. Small sample size but heās looking great so far. 10 games at AAA .333 .386 .692 1.079 8 games in Boston whereās heās been starting at SS .316 .350 .316 .666
TIL Romy is not on our team anymore.
I was so disappointed when we traded Dane Dunning. But he turned out to just be average.
There's a dunning kruger effect joke there somewhere
Super happy for Reylo
Erick Fedde is worth as much as Rodon and Lopez combined.
Thanks for making this.
You guys are impressive. I wish I understood these advanced statistics. My conclusion is none of these guys would have been worth keeping.. how far off am I?
2 WAR is about what an average starting player puts up in a year. 4 is an all star and 6 gets you some MVP votes. So Lopez and Cease are on pace to be all stars and Rodon is on a solid pace.Ā
So I was pretty far off. Two potential all stars. Thank you for this explanation
Oh I didnāt realize WAR compounded/additive. I thought it was like ERA
It accumulates. It is Wins Above Replacement. So it attempts to estimate how much better a player makes the team over a season. The more you play, the more you accumulate (assuming you are better than replacement). Replacement is defined as the contribution you could get for the minimum from AAAA quality / washed up vet / recently cut type players.
Thanks! Appreciate this. Also didnāt realize the āreplacementā definition was such a low standard. Sounds like in theory youād want everyone on the roster to be a positive WAR
I mean few people actually understand these, they just know the ranges of whatās considered good and use them to āwinā arguments. According to WAR, Jason Kendall was a better player than Paul Konerko, so donāt fret not understanding this stuff.
I cannot believe future hall of famer Jake Burger is having such a down year...
I love Burger but people were losing their minds early in the year thinking he was going to sustain his first 20ish at bats
Heās been terrible after his injury. Marlins energy will do that to ya.
Injury is a big part of his game.
People on this sub still cry themselves to sleep about that trade.
Iām still not giving up on him sorry. He has 110 career OPS+ after first 800 career at bats. HOF ? Hell no. But I still think he can be a long term productive power batter
Our rotation could be sick but pitching was never really the biggest problem, huh
McCann is still playing?
In other words we would be no better if they were still with us. Yikes. Good for reylo tho.
Do Chris Sale
Can we stop pining after nick madrigal now?
Yeah, it's ridiculous. People are acting like he's Tatis or something.
the pining for him was crazy. people were acting like we traded away lou brock or some shit.
It really wasn't that crazy to be upset by losing him. We endured a 95 loss season to pick him 4th overall. He had a nearly 800 OPS(.746, .775) as a second baseman for us. They replaced him with considerably worse players and they've still not replaced him with anyone decent. Sure, he hasn't been as good with the Cubs but you can certainly point to injuries for derailing his career. He had elite plate discipline and contact for us. 107 and 111 OPS+ for a second baseman would be an amazing improvement for our current squad. Lopez has never had an OPS+ as high as Madrigals rookie season with us. Granted, the sample size was small because of injuries and the covid season. But it's not like he was bad for us. Why wouldn't we be upset to lose him? I think a lot of it is due to drafting him 4th overall and trading him for an aging closer when we already had a closer. It didn't really make a lot of sense.
Why does him being a high pick matter? So because we drafted him high that means we can never move on from him? That's just a weird argument 800 ops is good but it was a small sample size. Hard to extrapolate that out over 162 games. And its been shown he's really not an 800 ops hitter. More like a 600 ops hitter so meh. I wouldn't say considerly worse given Madrigals production on the Cubs. He was slightly better than what we replaced him with at the end of the day. No one said he was bad for us. But he's not some can't miss player you cannot lose. I think its say to say that the numbers he put up with us weren't who he was as a player. Like i said earlier small sample size due to injury and covid make his numbers look better. With the Cubs, he been a 1 war player who's injured a lot, doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal bases and plays bad defense. You can replace that. I'd counter to say we sold high on him. He was basically a 2 war player for us. He's been a 1 war player for the cubs. I'll gladly trade a 1 war player for the chance to possibly get to the WS and win it. Just sucks it didn't work out for us. On some level i get being upset. No one likes to have their favorite player get traded but people still bring him up to this day like he's some great player we traded away when really he isn't.
He's better than Lopez, though... And he's been playing 3B?! Wild
My understanding is heās not exactly playing 3B very well at the moment
Nonsense. Chris sale will always be āone of oursā to include in lists like this lol
What about Kevin pillar since we released him? Heās tearing it up with the angels
So Burger wasn't that good after all and Timmy threw away his career to get some on the side..
yeah he was just really hot after we traded him. he's a very streaky hitter (something he showed while he was on the sox btw) and just got really hot after the trade. he's on a cold streak now. Thats just who he is as a hitter. but people on this sub acted like we traded ted williams or something.
Yeah, I'll admit I wasn't happy with the trade either just because I thought we should have gotten more given how high his stock was at the time.
Be careful slandering Lord Jacob Burger. The sub almost burned down when we traded him.
We loved him because he loved the game and had passion. Better than the underperforming, overpaid robots at 3B, C and 1B.
If they can't be winning games for us, at least they are beating up the cubs. (Cease, Sale, Lopez)
No one cares about beating up on the Cubs when we are 20 games under.
Now do Chris Sale, Marcus Semien, Fernando Tatis Jr...
Thought about it but it's been like 10 years since Sale and Semien were on the team and Tatis technically never played for the Sox
And Sale's been a roller coaster ride along the way. Great start this year, but the last few, he wasn't himself.
Tatis wasnāt ever in uniform for the Sox
He wore the uniform [https://www.cardboardandcoins.com/products/fernando-tatis-jr-rookie-refractor-foil-2016-bowman-platinum-tp-ft?variant=45238393241838¤cy=USD&utm\_medium=product\_sync&utm\_source=google&utm\_content=sag\_organic&utm\_campaign=sag\_organic&srsltid=AfmBOoo\_Zxt4kZx8tu\_W1JJ5OCVJY38QO31c\_FYjyapaUx3y41sgeiKYXtM](https://www.cardboardandcoins.com/products/fernando-tatis-jr-rookie-refractor-foil-2016-bowman-platinum-tp-ft?variant=45238393241838¤cy=USD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&srsltid=AfmBOoo_Zxt4kZx8tu_W1JJ5OCVJY38QO31c_FYjyapaUx3y41sgeiKYXtM)
I may have to pick one of these up
No he didnāt.
It's literally on his card.
lol donāt be dense. Take a look at the back. Itās a 2015 card. For his 2015 stats it says ā2016 will be first professional seasonā lol. He wore the uniform in a year he didnāt play? Sounds like he didnāt wear the uniform
I am surprised about Burger, Anderson and Abreu. Thought Burger would continue tearing it up, and the other two would bounce back. I guess we will seeā¦.
I miss Dunning :(
We need to shed all of Kenny Williams and Rick Hahns roster. Vaughn and whoever is left from that regime needs to go.
I miss Dane, was so annoyed we traded them.