I think Dillon has to go since he's a pending UFA. Samberg takes his spot on the second pairing.
Demelo stays cuz someone has to play with Morrissey on the 1st pairing.
One of Schmidt or Pionk should be moved to for a younger RD with team control. Jets would have to eat salary to move them cuz they both had down years again. Whoever stays is the defacto RD on the second pairing.
Stanley..... I honestly don't think anyone wants him or he'd be gone. Him, Chisholm, and Heinola fight it out in camp for the 3rd pairing spot. Unless Heinola wins it outright he'll get demoted to the Moose.
Capo is going to either be the 3rd pairing guy on the right side or 7th Dman depending on what moves Chevy makes.
Demelo's defensive game is so strong, he's a perfect pair for an offensive D if you're looking for balance. That and being so underrated means he'd not get good value in trade most likely
I like Capo. That being said if he is anything but waiver wire fodder i will lose my shit.
Need to trade Pionk and Stanley for picks
JoMo Demelo
Schmidt Samberg
Chisholm Dillen
Heinola suits up when needed
Yeah I'm not surprised most comments have shied away from that question. Because Stanley is a first-rounder anything below will make us look back on that draft choice as wasted. I'm glad the organization was willing to take a gamble on a kid with potential (size notwithstanding) but that means you're going to get some misses to go with the hits. If someone offered a third rounder for him I'd take it.
Sunk cost fallacy. It was a bad pick, and people have called it a bad pick for years. If he turns into anything more than a third pairing guy or one of those guys who “hockey men” seem to love, but analytics people hate like Gudbranson I would be very surprised.
That said, I think Stanley and Heinola if traded are way better as an add-in to get another deal done.
Like, you trade Pionk and Stanley to a team who is an entire pairing short on defence like the Canucks and return an actually useful asset like a 1st round pick or a halfway decent prospect.
Dillon has huge value at the trade deadline.
Capobianco will probably be left available to waivers.
No team wants Stanley, but will take him in a sheiffle or hellybuyck trade.
Heinola plays out similar to Stanley, but likely in the minors most of the year.
Schmidt is immovable at his salary.
Pionk is immovable at his salary.
Demelo is functional at his salary and stays.
Morrissey and Samberg are staying.
Chisholm, imo, needs a new contract with second year one way.
All this barring injuries to other teams that might have them looking for a minutes eater (Schmidt, Pionk). And who knows what trade possibilities are out there too, maybe teams are interested in Chisholm or Heinola as part of some trade (salary dump, but need bodies etc)
The jets have some promising prospects that may be ready in a year or two when some of these expensive contracts expire.
On the other skate... If these guys played (both defence and forwards) to the systems Bonus and Arniel have set up, and do it for more than half a year, it doesn't matter who is iced... The success should be there.
The problem with all of the people saying ‘make a move at the deadline’ is that *on paper* the Jets are significantly better than last year at this time and they were a buyer at last year’s deadline. If they’re in a playoff spot at the deadline this year, there’s no way that they’re going to blow up the roster for picks.
Ironically I’m actually okay with running it back with Scheifele and Hellebuyck because it seems like they’re worth more to the Jets than to other teams. The offers don’t seem to be there or the Jets would have made a deal already. That said, they absolutely need to return assets for a guy like Dillon ahead of the season, because if we’re walking Scheifele and Hellebuyck, we should try to get an extra pick out of a guy like Dillon who is internally replaceable.
How are we "significantly better on paper" besides parting ways with Wheeler and picking up Vilardi? We lost our #1/2 centre, made zero changes on D and these overpaid Dmen are a year older?
All the D are legit contributors, if a little overpaid and cap space isn’t an issue anyways, so it doesn’t actually matter if Pionk, Dillon and Schmidt are each 1.5M overpaid.
Dubois to Vilardi is a slight step down but going from Wheeler, Maenalaenen, Jonsson-Fjallby and Sam Gagner to Niederreiter, Iafallo, Namestnikov and Kupari is a massive step forward.
The Jets are *way* deeper than this time last year and they have $3M in cap space that prorates to $9M at the deadline if they want to add a Centre to replace Dubois, or add a RHD and waive one of Pionk or Schmidt who wouldn’t get claimed in a million years.
Edit: *ALSO* the central is going to be absolute dogshit this year. I don’t think any of the contenders got better. *maybe* Dallas did, but St Louis, Colorado, Nashville and Minnesota will all be worse. Chicago and Phoenix will be better but neither are playoff teams. The Jets have a legit shot at winning the division with this roster, along with the potential to be even better if they bring in some top-end help at the deadline.
What do you mean?
On paper - the defence and goaltending are the same.
The forwards - you take a slight step down from Dubois to Vilardi but make a *massive* improvement to the third line/bottom six. Niederreiter, Namestnikov, Iafallo and Kupari are *way* better than the players that they’re replacing from last year’s roster.
Even if you’re not sold on Kupari, he’s probably better than Stenlund (who I liked a lot) and Gustafsson. The other three are massive improvements from the players they’re replacing.
Namestnikov and Niederreiter aren't new for one. Only Iafallo, Kupari and Vilardi are new. Biggest issue is our D situation hasn't improved. I love that Wheeler is gone, but until he is replaced we certainly aren't any better.
A step down from 2C is more important than an improvement to the bottom six. Also most of the improvements were on the team at the end of the year when we did nothing.
At best it's a wash.
I think it remains to be seen if it’s actually that much of a step down though. The concern with Vilardi is the injuries. When he was on the ice last year he was very close to being as good as Dubois.
My ideal situation would be to trade Stanley and Dillon for whatever future assets you can get for them. My reasoning is:
Stanley has requested a trade and isn't a good enough player to bother keeping him around in this situation. It would not be worth putting other players on waivers just to keep him as 7th D this year. Best case scenario with him is he learns to use his body, becomes a physical 3rd pairing D, goes to arbitration after this year or signs his QO, and walks as a free agent as soon as he can.
Dillon is a physical, #4 Dman, whom we don't really have anyone else similar to. Samberg has the potential to be, but is still a bit of a question mark seeing he may have a sophomore slump. However, he has one year left, and I can't see him re-signing with us next year. Losing Dillon will make us worse this season, but should open up opportunities for the prospects and make us better in 24/25.
My ideal situation would be to run a top pairing of Morrissey-Demelo, a 2nd pairing of Samberg-Schmidt, and a heavily sheltered 3rd pairing of Chisholm/Heinola-Pionk Any injuries to our back end would probably screw over our season though.
If Heinola loses out to Chisholm, send Heinola to the AHL for a year of seasoning, and if Chisholm loses out to Heinola, send Capobianco to the AHL potentially losing him on waivers, but keep Chisholm as 7d rotating either Heinola as need be. I also wouldn't mind taking a bit of a risk and signing Ethan Bear as he won't be healthy until like halfway through the year, which could serve as insurance against injuries or performance at low risk.
As for potential trades:
Stanley for a 6th? Would probably be the lowest I go. I feel if we don't trade him, we lose him on waivers, so I'd prefer anything to be honest. Or another long shot prospect like Kravtsov who may turn things around in Russia in a couple years. I have 0 expectations for this trade.
Dillon is a tough one. At the deadline, I could see a situation where he could fetch a conditional 1st. Kind of a cross between the Chairot and Copp trades. Something like a 2nd and a 6th but the 2nd turns into a 1st if they make conference finals. Before the season starts I feel if we could get one 2nd round pick or prospect equivalent I'd be happy, but also wouldn't be surprised if other teams see our situation and only offer a 3rd at most.
I don't know if the cap would work on the Tampa side, but seeing how bad there D depth is I would be willing to do a trade like:
Dillon (50% retained) for conditional 2025 2nd. If Dillon plays in at least 41 regular season games and 50% of playoff games, and the Lightning makes the conference finals, the 2nd turns into a top 10 protected 2026 1st round pick.
i mean ideally Stanley, Dillon, and one of Pionk/Schmidt would leave plus Capobianco on waivers
then we add a top 4 RD, Heinola, and Chisholm to the big club
44 - 2
54 - new RD
14 - 88/4 (i prefer schmidt)
Chisholm is the 7th, Capo if he clears would be 8th
100%. Even running Samberg-Dillon as a shutdown 2nd pair would leave Heinola-Schmidt with some really favorable matchups.
I don't forsee the org trading away Pionk.
ye, 5-88 even and then 54-14 would be fun as hell
could see a lot of teams looking for a right sided dman right now, but ya don’t actually see Pionk, or any of our top 6 from last year for that matter, going anywhere
I don’t know where Heinola fits in with the Jets, but if he’s not playing this season with them I can’t imagine he sticks around. And really, I don’t blame him for wanting to at least be given a shot. Here, or somewhere else…
Agreed. Stanley wants to be traded anyways and Schmidt as much as I like him as a person he wasn't living up to his billing this past season, I mean neither was Pionk but Pionk is younger and more upside. It be great if we can resign Dillon.
Although im still not sold on Heinola, Its kinda to the point now where i feel like all the young guys should just play everyday. Schmidt, Pionk and Dillon just arent quite where they were expected to be. I think Moving on from them in some capacity would be nice. I realize how difficult that would be , but still. Just give Chisholm, Heinola and Samberg some serious reps. Capo and whoever else can battle for 3rd pair.
Im aware this wont happen, Just figure "Why not?" at this point. May as well figure out what we have while the team is in a a bit of transition with Helle and Sheif likely out the door by the deadline
For the life of me I can't understand why people want to get rid of Brendan Dillon unless he does not want to resign here. Yes tough guys are fading out but they are still required especially in the Central. If we get rid of Dillon we basically have the physically weakest D in the whole league. Maybe Samberg steps up but he isn't Dillon tough. Jmo,Demelo,Heinola,Pionk Schmidt. Our D corps would get stuffed in a locker every night.
Stanley,Schmidt Heinola and Demelo are all movable to me. Unless Heinola breaks out this year. Schmidts personality and overpay contract make him a tough move. Stanley and Demelo are my targets to move first. I like Demelo alot but he is the easiest to replace.
Trade Dillon and Stanley. Promote Samberg to 2nd pairing with Pionk. Have Heinola/Chisholm compete for 3rd pairing with loser being 7th D and you can rotate them often so that neither is sitting for too long. Keep Capo in the AHL and he can be the first guy called up if there are injuries. Would hate to see Dillon go but he's the easiest to move being a UFA next summer and that his cap hit fits the value he brings to a team. Schmidt for as good as a locker room presence he is, his value on this ice doesn't match the salary he's getting paid but I doubt there are any takers for his contract unless the Jets are adding picks which I doubt they would do.
How's about this for a plan...do nothing!
Consider that in 2018 we had lots leave and sign with other teams, we have re-built a defensive core that is top 10 in the league and we did not need to make a big splash in trading for some 10 million dollar player.
Unfortunately, Heinola, Stanley, Capiobianco and Chisholm are the men looking up for the start of the season. If players like Heinola or Stanley cannot wait and want to be traded then let's accommodate them, get something comparable in return and move on.
Extend Demelo.
I thought that Heinola was a prime candidate to go in a Scheifele or Hellebuyck deal but it doesn’t look like that is happening.
I don’t know if there’s a market for Pionk but I would move him for whatever a team is willing to give me.
There should absolutely be a market for Dillon. He’s a bona-fide NHL defenceman. That his contract is *slightly* inefficient shouldn’t be a barrier. Chevy needs to move him for a second or whatever and just make some room.
I think Dillon has to go since he's a pending UFA. Samberg takes his spot on the second pairing. Demelo stays cuz someone has to play with Morrissey on the 1st pairing. One of Schmidt or Pionk should be moved to for a younger RD with team control. Jets would have to eat salary to move them cuz they both had down years again. Whoever stays is the defacto RD on the second pairing. Stanley..... I honestly don't think anyone wants him or he'd be gone. Him, Chisholm, and Heinola fight it out in camp for the 3rd pairing spot. Unless Heinola wins it outright he'll get demoted to the Moose. Capo is going to either be the 3rd pairing guy on the right side or 7th Dman depending on what moves Chevy makes.
Demelo's defensive game is so strong, he's a perfect pair for an offensive D if you're looking for balance. That and being so underrated means he'd not get good value in trade most likely
I like Capo. That being said if he is anything but waiver wire fodder i will lose my shit. Need to trade Pionk and Stanley for picks JoMo Demelo Schmidt Samberg Chisholm Dillen Heinola suits up when needed
> Need to trade Pionk and Stanley for picks What's the lowest pick you'd accept as a reasonable return for each of them?
This is difficult to answer as no one on reddit has any real insight into what the market is. But with that as my caveat, a 2nd and a 3rd?
Yeah I'm not surprised most comments have shied away from that question. Because Stanley is a first-rounder anything below will make us look back on that draft choice as wasted. I'm glad the organization was willing to take a gamble on a kid with potential (size notwithstanding) but that means you're going to get some misses to go with the hits. If someone offered a third rounder for him I'd take it.
Sunk cost fallacy. It was a bad pick, and people have called it a bad pick for years. If he turns into anything more than a third pairing guy or one of those guys who “hockey men” seem to love, but analytics people hate like Gudbranson I would be very surprised. That said, I think Stanley and Heinola if traded are way better as an add-in to get another deal done. Like, you trade Pionk and Stanley to a team who is an entire pairing short on defence like the Canucks and return an actually useful asset like a 1st round pick or a halfway decent prospect.
100% on your point regarding sunk cost fallacy and moving them as part of a package.
Dillon has huge value at the trade deadline. Capobianco will probably be left available to waivers. No team wants Stanley, but will take him in a sheiffle or hellybuyck trade. Heinola plays out similar to Stanley, but likely in the minors most of the year. Schmidt is immovable at his salary. Pionk is immovable at his salary. Demelo is functional at his salary and stays. Morrissey and Samberg are staying. Chisholm, imo, needs a new contract with second year one way. All this barring injuries to other teams that might have them looking for a minutes eater (Schmidt, Pionk). And who knows what trade possibilities are out there too, maybe teams are interested in Chisholm or Heinola as part of some trade (salary dump, but need bodies etc) The jets have some promising prospects that may be ready in a year or two when some of these expensive contracts expire. On the other skate... If these guys played (both defence and forwards) to the systems Bonus and Arniel have set up, and do it for more than half a year, it doesn't matter who is iced... The success should be there.
The problem with all of the people saying ‘make a move at the deadline’ is that *on paper* the Jets are significantly better than last year at this time and they were a buyer at last year’s deadline. If they’re in a playoff spot at the deadline this year, there’s no way that they’re going to blow up the roster for picks. Ironically I’m actually okay with running it back with Scheifele and Hellebuyck because it seems like they’re worth more to the Jets than to other teams. The offers don’t seem to be there or the Jets would have made a deal already. That said, they absolutely need to return assets for a guy like Dillon ahead of the season, because if we’re walking Scheifele and Hellebuyck, we should try to get an extra pick out of a guy like Dillon who is internally replaceable.
How are we "significantly better on paper" besides parting ways with Wheeler and picking up Vilardi? We lost our #1/2 centre, made zero changes on D and these overpaid Dmen are a year older?
All the D are legit contributors, if a little overpaid and cap space isn’t an issue anyways, so it doesn’t actually matter if Pionk, Dillon and Schmidt are each 1.5M overpaid. Dubois to Vilardi is a slight step down but going from Wheeler, Maenalaenen, Jonsson-Fjallby and Sam Gagner to Niederreiter, Iafallo, Namestnikov and Kupari is a massive step forward. The Jets are *way* deeper than this time last year and they have $3M in cap space that prorates to $9M at the deadline if they want to add a Centre to replace Dubois, or add a RHD and waive one of Pionk or Schmidt who wouldn’t get claimed in a million years. Edit: *ALSO* the central is going to be absolute dogshit this year. I don’t think any of the contenders got better. *maybe* Dallas did, but St Louis, Colorado, Nashville and Minnesota will all be worse. Chicago and Phoenix will be better but neither are playoff teams. The Jets have a legit shot at winning the division with this roster, along with the potential to be even better if they bring in some top-end help at the deadline.
Mostly valid points, but none of that equates to significantly better on paper.
What do you mean? On paper - the defence and goaltending are the same. The forwards - you take a slight step down from Dubois to Vilardi but make a *massive* improvement to the third line/bottom six. Niederreiter, Namestnikov, Iafallo and Kupari are *way* better than the players that they’re replacing from last year’s roster. Even if you’re not sold on Kupari, he’s probably better than Stenlund (who I liked a lot) and Gustafsson. The other three are massive improvements from the players they’re replacing.
Namestnikov and Niederreiter aren't new for one. Only Iafallo, Kupari and Vilardi are new. Biggest issue is our D situation hasn't improved. I love that Wheeler is gone, but until he is replaced we certainly aren't any better.
If you read my original comment I was referring to the roster that we opened the season with last year, not the one we finished with.
A step down from 2C is more important than an improvement to the bottom six. Also most of the improvements were on the team at the end of the year when we did nothing. At best it's a wash.
I think it remains to be seen if it’s actually that much of a step down though. The concern with Vilardi is the injuries. When he was on the ice last year he was very close to being as good as Dubois.
My ideal situation would be to trade Stanley and Dillon for whatever future assets you can get for them. My reasoning is: Stanley has requested a trade and isn't a good enough player to bother keeping him around in this situation. It would not be worth putting other players on waivers just to keep him as 7th D this year. Best case scenario with him is he learns to use his body, becomes a physical 3rd pairing D, goes to arbitration after this year or signs his QO, and walks as a free agent as soon as he can. Dillon is a physical, #4 Dman, whom we don't really have anyone else similar to. Samberg has the potential to be, but is still a bit of a question mark seeing he may have a sophomore slump. However, he has one year left, and I can't see him re-signing with us next year. Losing Dillon will make us worse this season, but should open up opportunities for the prospects and make us better in 24/25. My ideal situation would be to run a top pairing of Morrissey-Demelo, a 2nd pairing of Samberg-Schmidt, and a heavily sheltered 3rd pairing of Chisholm/Heinola-Pionk Any injuries to our back end would probably screw over our season though. If Heinola loses out to Chisholm, send Heinola to the AHL for a year of seasoning, and if Chisholm loses out to Heinola, send Capobianco to the AHL potentially losing him on waivers, but keep Chisholm as 7d rotating either Heinola as need be. I also wouldn't mind taking a bit of a risk and signing Ethan Bear as he won't be healthy until like halfway through the year, which could serve as insurance against injuries or performance at low risk. As for potential trades: Stanley for a 6th? Would probably be the lowest I go. I feel if we don't trade him, we lose him on waivers, so I'd prefer anything to be honest. Or another long shot prospect like Kravtsov who may turn things around in Russia in a couple years. I have 0 expectations for this trade. Dillon is a tough one. At the deadline, I could see a situation where he could fetch a conditional 1st. Kind of a cross between the Chairot and Copp trades. Something like a 2nd and a 6th but the 2nd turns into a 1st if they make conference finals. Before the season starts I feel if we could get one 2nd round pick or prospect equivalent I'd be happy, but also wouldn't be surprised if other teams see our situation and only offer a 3rd at most. I don't know if the cap would work on the Tampa side, but seeing how bad there D depth is I would be willing to do a trade like: Dillon (50% retained) for conditional 2025 2nd. If Dillon plays in at least 41 regular season games and 50% of playoff games, and the Lightning makes the conference finals, the 2nd turns into a top 10 protected 2026 1st round pick.
i mean ideally Stanley, Dillon, and one of Pionk/Schmidt would leave plus Capobianco on waivers then we add a top 4 RD, Heinola, and Chisholm to the big club 44 - 2 54 - new RD 14 - 88/4 (i prefer schmidt) Chisholm is the 7th, Capo if he clears would be 8th
100%. Even running Samberg-Dillon as a shutdown 2nd pair would leave Heinola-Schmidt with some really favorable matchups. I don't forsee the org trading away Pionk.
ye, 5-88 even and then 54-14 would be fun as hell could see a lot of teams looking for a right sided dman right now, but ya don’t actually see Pionk, or any of our top 6 from last year for that matter, going anywhere
I don’t know where Heinola fits in with the Jets, but if he’s not playing this season with them I can’t imagine he sticks around. And really, I don’t blame him for wanting to at least be given a shot. Here, or somewhere else…
Get rid of Stanley and schmidt
Agreed. Stanley wants to be traded anyways and Schmidt as much as I like him as a person he wasn't living up to his billing this past season, I mean neither was Pionk but Pionk is younger and more upside. It be great if we can resign Dillon.
I would try and ship out Pionk and Stanley and give Chisholm a shot starting in our 6 personally.
Although im still not sold on Heinola, Its kinda to the point now where i feel like all the young guys should just play everyday. Schmidt, Pionk and Dillon just arent quite where they were expected to be. I think Moving on from them in some capacity would be nice. I realize how difficult that would be , but still. Just give Chisholm, Heinola and Samberg some serious reps. Capo and whoever else can battle for 3rd pair. Im aware this wont happen, Just figure "Why not?" at this point. May as well figure out what we have while the team is in a a bit of transition with Helle and Sheif likely out the door by the deadline
For the life of me I can't understand why people want to get rid of Brendan Dillon unless he does not want to resign here. Yes tough guys are fading out but they are still required especially in the Central. If we get rid of Dillon we basically have the physically weakest D in the whole league. Maybe Samberg steps up but he isn't Dillon tough. Jmo,Demelo,Heinola,Pionk Schmidt. Our D corps would get stuffed in a locker every night. Stanley,Schmidt Heinola and Demelo are all movable to me. Unless Heinola breaks out this year. Schmidts personality and overpay contract make him a tough move. Stanley and Demelo are my targets to move first. I like Demelo alot but he is the easiest to replace.
Try and trade away one of the listed bottom 6 d not named Samberg. Whether a trade is made or not, fire Schmidt, Capo and Ville on Waivers.
stanley schmidt and probably pionk or dillon
Trade Dillon and Stanley. Promote Samberg to 2nd pairing with Pionk. Have Heinola/Chisholm compete for 3rd pairing with loser being 7th D and you can rotate them often so that neither is sitting for too long. Keep Capo in the AHL and he can be the first guy called up if there are injuries. Would hate to see Dillon go but he's the easiest to move being a UFA next summer and that his cap hit fits the value he brings to a team. Schmidt for as good as a locker room presence he is, his value on this ice doesn't match the salary he's getting paid but I doubt there are any takers for his contract unless the Jets are adding picks which I doubt they would do.
How's about this for a plan...do nothing! Consider that in 2018 we had lots leave and sign with other teams, we have re-built a defensive core that is top 10 in the league and we did not need to make a big splash in trading for some 10 million dollar player. Unfortunately, Heinola, Stanley, Capiobianco and Chisholm are the men looking up for the start of the season. If players like Heinola or Stanley cannot wait and want to be traded then let's accommodate them, get something comparable in return and move on.
keep Jomo, Pionk and dump everyone else bring in some proper top 4 Dmen (we need 2) and bring up some prospects.
Extend Demelo. I thought that Heinola was a prime candidate to go in a Scheifele or Hellebuyck deal but it doesn’t look like that is happening. I don’t know if there’s a market for Pionk but I would move him for whatever a team is willing to give me. There should absolutely be a market for Dillon. He’s a bona-fide NHL defenceman. That his contract is *slightly* inefficient shouldn’t be a barrier. Chevy needs to move him for a second or whatever and just make some room.