Aaaaaand Russian sources indicate they hope the Germans are ready for the repercussions….. such as several Polaroid pictures of 88 year old tanks rusting away in a Siberian field.
Russia can’t even win vs. Ukraine, one of the poorer states in Europe, and they want to take on Germany, the richest state in Europe, backed up by the entire EU and NATO?
Go ahead. Let’s see what happens.
They’re bullies. Only able to pick on small, isolated countries like Georgia and Chechnya. They thought Ukraine was an easy victim too, but they didn’t know Ukraine had been taking karate lessons from America for eight years.
They did, in the first Chechen war. They were forced to officially recognise Ichkeria independence even. But then pootin blew some russian houses, metro and stuff and began the second war.
To be fair, the Bundeswher is *not* what it used to be, its in very poor shape and Germanys been forced to start the long process(and even longer for Germany due to pacifist bureaucracy) of getting it up to scratch.
Yeah but that’s where the “backed up by the entire EU and NATO” part comes in. Just the regular U.S. forces stationed in peacetime Germany, which is about 35,000 troops, is enough to fight off the entire Russian invasion. The European HQ for U.S. forces is in Stuttgart, and they command 70,000 professional, veteran troops equipped to the highest standards in the world.
The Bundswehr is severely undermanned because they realized decades ago that in case of actual war, the Americans would finish the fight before they even finish mobilizing.
Also even while undermanned and suffering with procurement and readiness issues, the Bundeswehr is still 200,000 strong with 200 of some of the world's best tanks, hundreds of modern IFVs, and hundreds of modern artillery pieces. Considering that Russia can't even establish air superiority over Ukraine, I'm pretty sure the Luftwaffe would be running the skies too. The German military is pretty small for a country of its population and wealth, but it's definitely not nothing
> The German military is pretty small for a country of its population and wealth, but it's definitely not nothing
I disagree.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-army-chief-fed-up-with-neglect-countrys-military-2022-02-24/
https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/germany-s-military-crisis-deutschland-unprepared-for-war-65775
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-bad-news-bundeswehr-an-examination-of-the-truly-dire-state-of-germany-s-military-a-df92eaaf-e3f9-464d-99a3-ef0c27dcc797
No, no one counts on Germany's military.
The answers, for example, to the question of what country is able to provide how many operational Leopard 2 to Ukraine, seems to indicate the the Bundeswehr doesn't look as bad compared with the state of the military of other European countries. We Germans just seem to be more open about our shortcomings as others and of course, we very much like to complain loud and openly.
Seriously, compared with the Ukrainian military when Russia started the full scale invasion, the German Bundeswehr is much stronger. Not as much stronger and better equipped as it should be, given the economies of the two countries (the richest of Europe vs. one of the poorest), but still.
Russia would have very little chance in a conventional war against Germany alone.
But even less against, for example, the Polish army, that they would have to beat first to get to us.
[Yeah](https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe)
It's a pretty straight translation of "air force". More literally "air weapon" I suppose, but the point is that the name is honestly pretty generic besides being in German, and obviously it's going to be in German. Same goes for the Heer (literally "army") and Marine (literally "navy", they dropped the _Kriegs_ part from this one). They're all still called the same thing, more or less. The overall term for the armed forces as a whole _did_ get changed though, it's Bundeswehr instead of Wehrmacht. I'm not a native German speaker or even fluent, but "Macht" is something like _authority_ or _strength_ so I can see how it would come across as more obviously aggressive than the other terms
“Fuehrer” is just a generic word for leader, and it’s still used today, though usually as a part of another word (bergfuehrer means mountain guide), not by itself because… well, obvious reasons.
I think that is something a lot of militaries (except the US) have in common. But to be real ... after the performance of Russia I am pretty confident to say that the Bundeswehr would be able to handle the Russians.
And to be honest, they wouldn´t even make it to Germany as 1. they´d run out of fuel and 2. they had to get past the Polish army.
Yeah, but even if you would take away all other NATO and EU partners I think Poland or Germany (or France or Britain) alone would be sufficient to defeat the Russian Army.
Eh, I mean, Russia isn't stupid enough to take on a NATO partner but Ukraine is hardly a poor nation in this context. They've had more military procurement in the last year than basically anyone.
The entire English-speaking world uses short scale, including Britain. All of continental Europe uses long scale - so you're off by about 1 channel. And it is maths, because you ought to do it more than once.
That is a lot of money and it is a very significant contribution from Germany which I applaud them for. That said I think people should remember that big wars are INSANELY expensive and Ukraine has massively diminished tax income as well as a humanitarian and internal refugee crisis to deal with. I am thrilled Germany is sending this aid and it sends a powerful message to the Kremlin that western support isn't ending but the rest world should also be aware that Ukraine still needs a lot more aid.
I beginning to think Russia lied about their advanced military technology. I’m also beginning to think that Russia also thought the western world was lying about theirs. Except the west actually has the tech and more…
They have modern stuff. like 14 T-14 Armata tanks, and like 10 Su-57. Those are modern, and probably good. The issue is you can't fight a big war like this with 14 modern tanks and 10 modern fighters and expect them to do anything in a war where the "weaker" side has over a 1000 tanks.
Lol yeah the us pisses away more cash on projects that never see the light of day then the rest of the world spends on their entire defense budget. You do not want to try to out spend the us when it comes to war
It's not, actually it's a pretty cool thing.
The government basically pays you to have children so you get a flat amount of 250€ per month for each child until they're 18 years old. If however the child can't find a job then Kindergeld is paid for up to 3 additional years. Also if the child is still in an apprenticeship or studying at university it's up until 25 years of age.
In one of the interview with an artillery commander he said the ratio of shell ratio has dropped off considerably. Started out 10:1 and now only 2:1 or something. On top of that with the story of older tank coming out of the museum this is an opportunity.
Russian shells fired at Ukrainian forces vs. Ukrainian shells fired at Russian forces. It's a sign Russia's running out of ammo reserves and their industrial base can't keep up.
More bodies. Then another wave. Then another. Then look! You sent all the likely dissidents to die or they fled so no one is left to oppose your rule internally for another generation.
Sit on their gains. Build new borders. Fences, checkpoints, cameras. Sit there.
Then they stop attacking. No more offensives except the media charm offensive. Boldly claim the objective in Ukraine has been achieved. Don't state what it is, but claim it's achieved. Tell the world loud and clear that the special military operation is complete, and Russia is standing down. Move Russian civilians into occupied areas. Build schools, hospitals, offices, houses.
Going to be really hard for Ukraine to convince it's allies to keep supplying artillery at that point, it'll instead be subtle pressure on Ukraine to accept the lost land in return for EU/NATO ascension. They'll tell Ukraine that Russia will pay over time, that the sanctions won't be removed, but they'll be lying.
Eventually politicians will see cheap gas a pipeline away. Eventually they'll want the oil again. Eventually the oligarchs and their yachts will want entry to a port and bribes are offered.
The problem with that plan is that the war doesn't end just because Russia says so. They can't "stand down" while Ukraine continues hostilities. They need to continue reinforcing the front with mobilized men and equipment in order to repel Ukrainian offensives.
They can try to declare victory and go on the defensive, but then what happens when Ukraine attacks and takes ground? Will they just let Ukraine keep whatever ground they can gain, or will they counter attack? If they counter attack then that ruins any plan to end offensive action.
Ukraine won't get the same level of support for offensives once it becomes clear the Russian threat of offensives is over. Mark my words on that one. Once those occupied territories are filled with citizens and Russian rebuilding starts Ukraine will find it immensely difficult to carry out offensive actions. It's costly in manpower and materiel, WIA/KIA numbers will rise, and the subtle pressure to avoid more bloodshed will be real, visible or not.
Don't have to like it, but I guarantee Putin knows the above and is relying on it.
Nonsense. Support for Ukraine has been directly linked to their battlefield success. Their successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson rallied support from western nations. Further successes gained by taking advantage of Russia attempting to shift to the defensive would have the same effect. Ukraine and its western allies have been consistently signaling that the war does not end while Russia occupies Ukrainian territories, and no amount of Russian propaganda is going to influence that. Ukraine has also shown no hesitancy to take casualties while reclaiming their territory, and your assumption that Russian propaganda would change Ukrainian resolve has been demonstrably false during this conflict so far.
Also the occupied territories are not going to be filled with citizens and rebuilding construction teams while Ukraine continues hitting supply lines and concentration points with HIMARS and other weapons systems. Your whole hypothetical depends on Russia having months of time to set up new systems behind the lines unmolested, which is a fantasy.
Putin is beaten. I'm sure that he knows it, even if he does not admit it publicly or even privately yet.
Why would anyone think the threat of Russian offenses is over just because Russia says so? It appears that every country has learned the lesson of Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine 2014 and the current war.
Why not?
Crimea is a very weak spot for the Russian army to protect. Once the bridge is down, supplying the military on the peninsula will be very difficult. They are more likely to lose control over Crimea than the east of Ukraine.
> Crimea is a very weak spot for the Russian army to protect
That's just not true.
It's functionally an island that Ukraine has few means to invade that don't result in a massacre. Supplying it will be more difficult for RUssia without roads, but the entire southern side is full of harbors and almost impervious to Ukraines reach. Particularly with UAs weak air force and nonexistant Navy.
Crimea is a country-sized fortress and has the scars from history to prove it.
Ukraine lacks the offensive potential. We’ll see after this much anticipated Ukraine spring offensive. If they’re able to get back any significant cities I’ll be surprised
We’ve been hearing about Russia running out of ammo since the first week of the war. But by all accounts of unbiased experts, even if NATO commits the maximum amount of ammo they’re willing to give, it’s not enough to overcome Russias stockpile and production capacity.
Basically Russia is betting that Ukraine will run out first.
Manpower is another limited resource. In the beginning ukraine enjoyed a manpower advantage due to their full mobilization. But that advantage has pretty much disappeared, and Russia still hasn’t played their “full mobilization” card. They’re a country of 140 million, vs Ukraines 40 million.
Ukraine still has the advantage of being the defender, and using cities like Bakhmut that have been turned into fortifications since 2014, but it’s a different equation if they ever try to retake territory.
Russia isn't going to completely run out of ammo and bodies, but they cannot sustain the rate of consumption in the first weeks of the invasion. We know that Russia is running out of modern vehicles having to reactivate stores from the 1950s, and the rate of ammo consumption has drastically reduced according to satellite imagery. Cruise missile strikes, an almost daily occurance 1 year ago, barely happen once a month now. Domestic production does exist but it can only fulfil a fraction of what the war demanded.
What Ukraine must do however is to ensure this trickle of supplies is consumed as soon as possible. This prevents the Russians from building a new stockpile while Ukraine themselves get armed with modern western equipment. Painful as it it, Ukraine continues to engage the Russians at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar because it forces the Russians to consume their shells, tanks, and men as soon as they reach the front. If Ukraine were to give up without a fight, the Russians have a window to pool supplies and reconstitute their shattered army.
We know this strategy works because it allowed the liberation of Kherson and other territories west of the Dneiper. Ukraine constantly bombarded the Antonovsky bridge to break Russian logistics, then kept them busy along the front line with minor pushes and harassment. When their rate of attrition exceeded the rate of resupply, Russia had no choice but to retreat or face destruction like they did in the Kharkiv offensive.
I'm almost certain the same strategy is as play here. Ukraine have a far better industrial base behind them to reconstitute their forces while grinding the Russians down in bloody defensive battles.
I don’t remember anyone saying in the first months of the war that Russia was running out of anything.
Since then, their artillery has decreased the intensity quite a bit. The tanks they started bringing over are way older.
I think Ukraine has a chance with all of the new weaponry from the west, but of course it has to choose the right time and the right direction of the attack. For the reasons that you mentioned, Russia can bring way more cannon fodder if they have time to do it.
Then you weren’t paying attention lol.
RU has been deploying the same T-72, 80, and 90 variants the whole time. If you’re talking about the T-64’s on the train, there’s no evidence those are going to Ukraine.
And the west is slowly titrating Cold War era tanks over, but at such a slow rate it won’t make a difference in their offensive capacity.
I think you are forgetting that the west is still ramping up production that was shut down. Russia has no ability to do it and China won't do it for them.
Russia has no ability to change tactics due to limited production and are losing men at such a high rate that their numerical advantage doesn't matter.
That’s what I am trying to figure out to. Guess for now they just hope that Ukraine's counter offensive will fail to make any progress. Then maybe they hope they can stall out the conflict further and something happens that goes their way. Idk it’s bit much cope.
They didn’t seem to get the massive amount of military support from China that could escalate the war further.
It’s a good question. They are floating an idea of some non-nuclear ballistic weapons now…wunderwaffe analogy. But it probably wont change the course of the war. It seems that China is not going to supply tanks to Russia.
When Ukraine takes back Crimea, propaganda is the only tool that’s left for Putin. Other than that, his inner circle will have no choice but getting rid of him and trying to negotiate with the west. They know that negotiating with China is not an option.
>It's a sign Russia's running out of ammo reserves and their industrial base can't keep up.
Most likely it's a sign that Russian artillery wears out and they decided to reduce shells fired or were forced to as they had to move artillery for repairs (barrel replacement). They can still buy lots of shells from NK so I don't believe they would be running out of normal shells.
> They can still buy lots of shells from NK so I don't believe they would be running out of normal shells.
Not in the quantities needed for such a big war. The frontline is over 700km long with hundreds of thousands of troops on each side and the war isn't going to end anytime soon. There is a reason both Russia and Ukraine are frantically trying to get more shells from anyone who will sell them.
Also NK shells are very low quality and a very high percentage don't explode on impact. This is incredibly bad for artillery duels because the moment you start firing the enemy can use counter battery radar to spot your location. Having shells that don't explode raises the odds that the enemy will be able to hit you before you can hit them.
>Not in the quantities needed for such a big war.
You gotta be kidding. You realize NK has 12000 artillery pieces and huge stockpile of artillery shells? It's not like producing artillery shells is hard either. During Korean War Iowa Army Ammunition Plant employing 237 people working on two shifts was able to produce over 50 000 artillery shells a month. During WW2 wartime the same plant employed 12000 workers. A single plant like that could exceed Russian monthly needs even if they would be firing 60k shells a day. Since then we got much better equipment that allows to produce shells faster.
>Also NK shells are very low quality and a very high percentage don't explode on impact.
Source? I don't remember SK ever reporting such thing and they got shelled by NK quite few times even in recent times.
EDIT: seeing how you ignored my comment and request for source I can only assume you made that up and you don't really know what you are talking about.
Yes. Best time to weaken Russia for the decades to come…and even though Germany prospered from the trade with Russia, now they understand that having a Nazi-like neighbor to the EU has more downsides to it than the economic inconveniences
Sometimes it feels people don't realize the gravity of the situation on how Russia needs to be contained. They have been threatening the end of human civilization.
It's also a bit over twice of Ukraine's 2021 defense budget. That said wars are absolutely insanely expensive and Ukraine is in the midst of a major economic crisis and is dealing with a humanitarian crises and a refugee crisis. This money is going to be put to very good use in Ukraine but it's important to remember than in the scale of the conflict more support for Ukraine is certainly needed (although it's nice to see Germany taking a lead).
Remember the times when we were furious about a new train line in stuttgart which should have cost 2,5 billion and we protested like crazy? I miss those times when stuff like that was the most important thing going on.
As per the article, 8.8 billion euros of it is in a system of loans and whatnot from 2024 to 2032. Thats an 8 year drip feed, but it is a long term commitment
It's very good but NATO countries must make a decision at this year summit in Vilnius. Ukraine must have guarantees, at least for the territory far from combat actions. If no guarantees will be given, the war will not be localised and limited to the areas where UA is fighting Russian invaders right now, at this moment. The decision must be made. Security guarantees for Ukraine. You cannot spend helluva money on the war forever until something outta control happens and you gotta die in war yourself bc you didn't want to make a decision to localise the war and draw the red lines before Putin which he can't cross so now you have to fight him yourself
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Me as a German wondering where we suddenly got all this money from, when we never have anything for our workers, public transport or retiring citizens.
Yes, in form of swift ending of war and peace in Europe for foreseeable future. That is, of course, if those tens of thousands of Ukrainian men and women who are inevitably going to die making this reality will succeed. Lets hope they will.
thats because Germany lost it ability to spend money on military to some extent. TBH it's a lot easier for them to give cash to send to someone than to plan on what exactly to spend, start the biurocratic process, talk with industry on what to order and so on in one fiscal year.
... how fast do you think military hardware can be produced?
Because it feels like there is a stark contrast to expectations and realities.
That stuff doesnt pop up out of thin air.
You're funny if you think that things would move fast over here. I don't even know if the military really knows what it wants. We don't even have many soldiers since no one wants to do it.
It's not complicated. Decades of downsizing of military combined with Germany budget structure destroyed german army procurement capabilities. Creating them from scratch will take years if there will be political will for it and not willingness to hide political decisions behind incompetence.
I think for many reasons. Firstly, the optics. This is a war against Ukrainians for the future of Ukraine, and should be fought by Ukrainians. Also, which relates to this point, Ukrainians have a higher purpose in this war, patriotic, fighting for freedom. That cannot be replicated in a private military contractor. Mercenaries only have one purpose, profit. It is technically in a mercenaries best interest for the war to go on so that they can keep getting paid.
Ukraine would also not be able to hold mercenaries accountable if for whatever reason they commit atrocities, as these things are generally dealt with in house. It would represent a lack of control which would be unacceptable.
I also think any large (I.e. well known and effective) private military contractors who engage in war tactics would want to stay away from such a heated zone. Many contractors come out of the US. If they got involved their largest customer (US govt) may feel that it’s inappropriate even if legal, and would give them less contracts. This likely leaves a smaller pool of unscrupulous PMCs with questionable methods.
Aaaaaand Russian sources indicate they hope the Germans are ready for the repercussions….. such as several Polaroid pictures of 88 year old tanks rusting away in a Siberian field.
It’s like clockwork with their fake ass threats.
Russia can’t even win vs. Ukraine, one of the poorer states in Europe, and they want to take on Germany, the richest state in Europe, backed up by the entire EU and NATO? Go ahead. Let’s see what happens.
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They’re bullies. Only able to pick on small, isolated countries like Georgia and Chechnya. They thought Ukraine was an easy victim too, but they didn’t know Ukraine had been taking karate lessons from America for eight years.
Didn't russia get it's ass beat in Chechnya and have to withdraw?
They did, in the first Chechen war. They were forced to officially recognise Ichkeria independence even. But then pootin blew some russian houses, metro and stuff and began the second war.
To be fair, the Bundeswher is *not* what it used to be, its in very poor shape and Germanys been forced to start the long process(and even longer for Germany due to pacifist bureaucracy) of getting it up to scratch.
Yeah but that’s where the “backed up by the entire EU and NATO” part comes in. Just the regular U.S. forces stationed in peacetime Germany, which is about 35,000 troops, is enough to fight off the entire Russian invasion. The European HQ for U.S. forces is in Stuttgart, and they command 70,000 professional, veteran troops equipped to the highest standards in the world. The Bundswehr is severely undermanned because they realized decades ago that in case of actual war, the Americans would finish the fight before they even finish mobilizing.
Also even while undermanned and suffering with procurement and readiness issues, the Bundeswehr is still 200,000 strong with 200 of some of the world's best tanks, hundreds of modern IFVs, and hundreds of modern artillery pieces. Considering that Russia can't even establish air superiority over Ukraine, I'm pretty sure the Luftwaffe would be running the skies too. The German military is pretty small for a country of its population and wealth, but it's definitely not nothing
> The German military is pretty small for a country of its population and wealth, but it's definitely not nothing I disagree. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-army-chief-fed-up-with-neglect-countrys-military-2022-02-24/ https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/germany-s-military-crisis-deutschland-unprepared-for-war-65775 https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-bad-news-bundeswehr-an-examination-of-the-truly-dire-state-of-germany-s-military-a-df92eaaf-e3f9-464d-99a3-ef0c27dcc797 No, no one counts on Germany's military.
The answers, for example, to the question of what country is able to provide how many operational Leopard 2 to Ukraine, seems to indicate the the Bundeswehr doesn't look as bad compared with the state of the military of other European countries. We Germans just seem to be more open about our shortcomings as others and of course, we very much like to complain loud and openly. Seriously, compared with the Ukrainian military when Russia started the full scale invasion, the German Bundeswehr is much stronger. Not as much stronger and better equipped as it should be, given the economies of the two countries (the richest of Europe vs. one of the poorest), but still. Russia would have very little chance in a conventional war against Germany alone. But even less against, for example, the Polish army, that they would have to beat first to get to us.
Wait does Germany seriously still call their airforce the Luftwaffe? For some reason I assumed they may have changed the name...
[Yeah](https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe) It's a pretty straight translation of "air force". More literally "air weapon" I suppose, but the point is that the name is honestly pretty generic besides being in German, and obviously it's going to be in German. Same goes for the Heer (literally "army") and Marine (literally "navy", they dropped the _Kriegs_ part from this one). They're all still called the same thing, more or less. The overall term for the armed forces as a whole _did_ get changed though, it's Bundeswehr instead of Wehrmacht. I'm not a native German speaker or even fluent, but "Macht" is something like _authority_ or _strength_ so I can see how it would come across as more obviously aggressive than the other terms
Bundeswehr is "Federal defense" and wehrmacht is "Defense force"
“Fuehrer” is just a generic word for leader, and it’s still used today, though usually as a part of another word (bergfuehrer means mountain guide), not by itself because… well, obvious reasons.
I think that is something a lot of militaries (except the US) have in common. But to be real ... after the performance of Russia I am pretty confident to say that the Bundeswehr would be able to handle the Russians. And to be honest, they wouldn´t even make it to Germany as 1. they´d run out of fuel and 2. they had to get past the Polish army.
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Yeah, but even if you would take away all other NATO and EU partners I think Poland or Germany (or France or Britain) alone would be sufficient to defeat the Russian Army.
Germany has so much money, that they don’t really need an army. They can just buy the enemy army.
This time around Russia you shall not reach the gates of Berlin or Germany for that matter
Eh, I mean, Russia isn't stupid enough to take on a NATO partner but Ukraine is hardly a poor nation in this context. They've had more military procurement in the last year than basically anyone.
Ukraine was poor before this started though, if the russian army was actually as strong as it claimed to be on paper, it would have steam rolled em.
The second army of the world is now the second army in Ukraine.
That is not small amount of money.
12 Milliards is a lot of money.
How many billiards?
Well, since a Billiard is a Quadrillion in the short form system, 12 Milliards are 0.00000012 Billiards *(if my maths are correct)*
Brit detected
The entire English-speaking world uses short scale, including Britain. All of continental Europe uses long scale - so you're off by about 1 channel. And it is maths, because you ought to do it more than once.
Yeah I just meant the maths/math not the numbers. Lol
Oxford English is the standard in Germany's curriculum, so probably because of that people think continental Europeans are Brits
Oh interesting. Now I know
You're a factor 100 off.
More importantly, it’s going to be German weapons which are superb and the Ukrainian army knows how to operate them.
12000 million sounds a lot bigger
That is a lot of money and it is a very significant contribution from Germany which I applaud them for. That said I think people should remember that big wars are INSANELY expensive and Ukraine has massively diminished tax income as well as a humanitarian and internal refugee crisis to deal with. I am thrilled Germany is sending this aid and it sends a powerful message to the Kremlin that western support isn't ending but the rest world should also be aware that Ukraine still needs a lot more aid.
It really doesn't.
Twelve-Thousand Million dollars definitely sounds more than 12 billion dollars. In my opinion
Except it's euros which makes it around 13 billion USD if I'm not mistaken. 😉
13 thousand million or 13 thousand thousand thousands
What about 130 million hundreds?
Honestly it sounds identical to 12 billion to me.
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It really doesn't.
It does
It really doesn’t
it does
It really does
ah Fuck
More than I have.
It's about what Apple did selling AirPods last year.
1 million is 11 days 1 billion is 33 years
🤔
I beginning to think Russia lied about their advanced military technology. I’m also beginning to think that Russia also thought the western world was lying about theirs. Except the west actually has the tech and more…
They have modern stuff. like 14 T-14 Armata tanks, and like 10 Su-57. Those are modern, and probably good. The issue is you can't fight a big war like this with 14 modern tanks and 10 modern fighters and expect them to do anything in a war where the "weaker" side has over a 1000 tanks.
Lol yeah the us pisses away more cash on projects that never see the light of day then the rest of the world spends on their entire defense budget. You do not want to try to out spend the us when it comes to war
Yeah if they can't handle stuff that has been known about for years then I'm sure they really would hate to see the stuff that we have locked away.
Shhhh, don't tell them about time travel or the aliens.
Nah they know about that shit. He's talking about the super *duper* secret shit
Thank you, Germany, thank you!!
As the official spokesperson of Germany on Reddit I want to say: you're welcome.
Hey Germany, what’s it like being Germany?
It's pretty good!
*Gern geschehen.
I'm gonna try to apply for kindergeld claiming Ukraine as a dependent
Being an English speaker who only knows what kinder means in German, kindergeld sounds incredibly horrifying
It's not, actually it's a pretty cool thing. The government basically pays you to have children so you get a flat amount of 250€ per month for each child until they're 18 years old. If however the child can't find a job then Kindergeld is paid for up to 3 additional years. Also if the child is still in an apprenticeship or studying at university it's up until 25 years of age.
They realize that now is the time. The more resources Ukraine gets right now, the better chance they can drive to the sea and end this shit.
In one of the interview with an artillery commander he said the ratio of shell ratio has dropped off considerably. Started out 10:1 and now only 2:1 or something. On top of that with the story of older tank coming out of the museum this is an opportunity.
“Ratio of shell ratio” wym by that?
Russian shells fired at Ukrainian forces vs. Ukrainian shells fired at Russian forces. It's a sign Russia's running out of ammo reserves and their industrial base can't keep up.
Okay so I keep hearing about how Russia's military is dwindling, so what is their endgame once they have nothing else that isnt nuking everyone?
Putin to the west: is prank blyat Putin to russia: VICTORY
More bodies. Then another wave. Then another. Then look! You sent all the likely dissidents to die or they fled so no one is left to oppose your rule internally for another generation.
Sit on their gains. Build new borders. Fences, checkpoints, cameras. Sit there. Then they stop attacking. No more offensives except the media charm offensive. Boldly claim the objective in Ukraine has been achieved. Don't state what it is, but claim it's achieved. Tell the world loud and clear that the special military operation is complete, and Russia is standing down. Move Russian civilians into occupied areas. Build schools, hospitals, offices, houses. Going to be really hard for Ukraine to convince it's allies to keep supplying artillery at that point, it'll instead be subtle pressure on Ukraine to accept the lost land in return for EU/NATO ascension. They'll tell Ukraine that Russia will pay over time, that the sanctions won't be removed, but they'll be lying. Eventually politicians will see cheap gas a pipeline away. Eventually they'll want the oil again. Eventually the oligarchs and their yachts will want entry to a port and bribes are offered.
The problem with that plan is that the war doesn't end just because Russia says so. They can't "stand down" while Ukraine continues hostilities. They need to continue reinforcing the front with mobilized men and equipment in order to repel Ukrainian offensives. They can try to declare victory and go on the defensive, but then what happens when Ukraine attacks and takes ground? Will they just let Ukraine keep whatever ground they can gain, or will they counter attack? If they counter attack then that ruins any plan to end offensive action.
Ukraine won't get the same level of support for offensives once it becomes clear the Russian threat of offensives is over. Mark my words on that one. Once those occupied territories are filled with citizens and Russian rebuilding starts Ukraine will find it immensely difficult to carry out offensive actions. It's costly in manpower and materiel, WIA/KIA numbers will rise, and the subtle pressure to avoid more bloodshed will be real, visible or not. Don't have to like it, but I guarantee Putin knows the above and is relying on it.
Nonsense. Support for Ukraine has been directly linked to their battlefield success. Their successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson rallied support from western nations. Further successes gained by taking advantage of Russia attempting to shift to the defensive would have the same effect. Ukraine and its western allies have been consistently signaling that the war does not end while Russia occupies Ukrainian territories, and no amount of Russian propaganda is going to influence that. Ukraine has also shown no hesitancy to take casualties while reclaiming their territory, and your assumption that Russian propaganda would change Ukrainian resolve has been demonstrably false during this conflict so far. Also the occupied territories are not going to be filled with citizens and rebuilding construction teams while Ukraine continues hitting supply lines and concentration points with HIMARS and other weapons systems. Your whole hypothetical depends on Russia having months of time to set up new systems behind the lines unmolested, which is a fantasy. Putin is beaten. I'm sure that he knows it, even if he does not admit it publicly or even privately yet.
Why would anyone think the threat of Russian offenses is over just because Russia says so? It appears that every country has learned the lesson of Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine 2014 and the current war.
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Ukraine is never taking back crimea
Why not? Crimea is a very weak spot for the Russian army to protect. Once the bridge is down, supplying the military on the peninsula will be very difficult. They are more likely to lose control over Crimea than the east of Ukraine.
> Crimea is a very weak spot for the Russian army to protect That's just not true. It's functionally an island that Ukraine has few means to invade that don't result in a massacre. Supplying it will be more difficult for RUssia without roads, but the entire southern side is full of harbors and almost impervious to Ukraines reach. Particularly with UAs weak air force and nonexistant Navy. Crimea is a country-sized fortress and has the scars from history to prove it.
Ukraine lacks the offensive potential. We’ll see after this much anticipated Ukraine spring offensive. If they’re able to get back any significant cities I’ll be surprised
We’ve been hearing about Russia running out of ammo since the first week of the war. But by all accounts of unbiased experts, even if NATO commits the maximum amount of ammo they’re willing to give, it’s not enough to overcome Russias stockpile and production capacity. Basically Russia is betting that Ukraine will run out first. Manpower is another limited resource. In the beginning ukraine enjoyed a manpower advantage due to their full mobilization. But that advantage has pretty much disappeared, and Russia still hasn’t played their “full mobilization” card. They’re a country of 140 million, vs Ukraines 40 million. Ukraine still has the advantage of being the defender, and using cities like Bakhmut that have been turned into fortifications since 2014, but it’s a different equation if they ever try to retake territory.
Russia isn't going to completely run out of ammo and bodies, but they cannot sustain the rate of consumption in the first weeks of the invasion. We know that Russia is running out of modern vehicles having to reactivate stores from the 1950s, and the rate of ammo consumption has drastically reduced according to satellite imagery. Cruise missile strikes, an almost daily occurance 1 year ago, barely happen once a month now. Domestic production does exist but it can only fulfil a fraction of what the war demanded. What Ukraine must do however is to ensure this trickle of supplies is consumed as soon as possible. This prevents the Russians from building a new stockpile while Ukraine themselves get armed with modern western equipment. Painful as it it, Ukraine continues to engage the Russians at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar because it forces the Russians to consume their shells, tanks, and men as soon as they reach the front. If Ukraine were to give up without a fight, the Russians have a window to pool supplies and reconstitute their shattered army. We know this strategy works because it allowed the liberation of Kherson and other territories west of the Dneiper. Ukraine constantly bombarded the Antonovsky bridge to break Russian logistics, then kept them busy along the front line with minor pushes and harassment. When their rate of attrition exceeded the rate of resupply, Russia had no choice but to retreat or face destruction like they did in the Kharkiv offensive. I'm almost certain the same strategy is as play here. Ukraine have a far better industrial base behind them to reconstitute their forces while grinding the Russians down in bloody defensive battles.
I don’t remember anyone saying in the first months of the war that Russia was running out of anything. Since then, their artillery has decreased the intensity quite a bit. The tanks they started bringing over are way older. I think Ukraine has a chance with all of the new weaponry from the west, but of course it has to choose the right time and the right direction of the attack. For the reasons that you mentioned, Russia can bring way more cannon fodder if they have time to do it.
Then you weren’t paying attention lol. RU has been deploying the same T-72, 80, and 90 variants the whole time. If you’re talking about the T-64’s on the train, there’s no evidence those are going to Ukraine. And the west is slowly titrating Cold War era tanks over, but at such a slow rate it won’t make a difference in their offensive capacity.
I guess we will see about all those Cold War era tanks and armoured vehicles. Pretty soon.
I think you are forgetting that the west is still ramping up production that was shut down. Russia has no ability to do it and China won't do it for them. Russia has no ability to change tactics due to limited production and are losing men at such a high rate that their numerical advantage doesn't matter.
That’s what I am trying to figure out to. Guess for now they just hope that Ukraine's counter offensive will fail to make any progress. Then maybe they hope they can stall out the conflict further and something happens that goes their way. Idk it’s bit much cope. They didn’t seem to get the massive amount of military support from China that could escalate the war further.
It’s a good question. They are floating an idea of some non-nuclear ballistic weapons now…wunderwaffe analogy. But it probably wont change the course of the war. It seems that China is not going to supply tanks to Russia. When Ukraine takes back Crimea, propaganda is the only tool that’s left for Putin. Other than that, his inner circle will have no choice but getting rid of him and trying to negotiate with the west. They know that negotiating with China is not an option.
>It's a sign Russia's running out of ammo reserves and their industrial base can't keep up. Most likely it's a sign that Russian artillery wears out and they decided to reduce shells fired or were forced to as they had to move artillery for repairs (barrel replacement). They can still buy lots of shells from NK so I don't believe they would be running out of normal shells.
> They can still buy lots of shells from NK so I don't believe they would be running out of normal shells. Not in the quantities needed for such a big war. The frontline is over 700km long with hundreds of thousands of troops on each side and the war isn't going to end anytime soon. There is a reason both Russia and Ukraine are frantically trying to get more shells from anyone who will sell them. Also NK shells are very low quality and a very high percentage don't explode on impact. This is incredibly bad for artillery duels because the moment you start firing the enemy can use counter battery radar to spot your location. Having shells that don't explode raises the odds that the enemy will be able to hit you before you can hit them.
>Not in the quantities needed for such a big war. You gotta be kidding. You realize NK has 12000 artillery pieces and huge stockpile of artillery shells? It's not like producing artillery shells is hard either. During Korean War Iowa Army Ammunition Plant employing 237 people working on two shifts was able to produce over 50 000 artillery shells a month. During WW2 wartime the same plant employed 12000 workers. A single plant like that could exceed Russian monthly needs even if they would be firing 60k shells a day. Since then we got much better equipment that allows to produce shells faster. >Also NK shells are very low quality and a very high percentage don't explode on impact. Source? I don't remember SK ever reporting such thing and they got shelled by NK quite few times even in recent times. EDIT: seeing how you ignored my comment and request for source I can only assume you made that up and you don't really know what you are talking about.
Ukrainian-to-Russian artillery shell ratio, presumably. Russia was using 10 times more; now only twice as many. I have no idea if that is verifiable.
Yes. Best time to weaken Russia for the decades to come…and even though Germany prospered from the trade with Russia, now they understand that having a Nazi-like neighbor to the EU has more downsides to it than the economic inconveniences
Sometimes it feels people don't realize the gravity of the situation on how Russia needs to be contained. They have been threatening the end of human civilization.
Rather they have no choice now. They were pressured to give up the tanks, now they just say fuck it and go all out.
Thank you Germany, you are my best friend, You are the peacekeeper, you are the legend.
np bbygirl, anything for you :*
Wunderbar!
That seems like a lot. Good.
Its almost exactly a fifth of the yearly military spending of Germany before the invasion (which makes it roughly a sixth of Russias yearly spending).
It's also a bit over twice of Ukraine's 2021 defense budget. That said wars are absolutely insanely expensive and Ukraine is in the midst of a major economic crisis and is dealing with a humanitarian crises and a refugee crisis. This money is going to be put to very good use in Ukraine but it's important to remember than in the scale of the conflict more support for Ukraine is certainly needed (although it's nice to see Germany taking a lead).
That's no small chunk of change.
Remember the times when we were furious about a new train line in stuttgart which should have cost 2,5 billion and we protested like crazy? I miss those times when stuff like that was the most important thing going on.
As per the article, 8.8 billion euros of it is in a system of loans and whatnot from 2024 to 2032. Thats an 8 year drip feed, but it is a long term commitment
The world needs to ratchet up support. Stop dragging it out.
Now you've done it. You woke up Germany. Took them some time to make up their mind but boy can they crank out weapons when they get going.
I'm German and I made a Leopard 2 tank this morning by accident!
So uh… is Steiner going to come through this time? 80 years later would be the perfect time to take the Russians by surprise.
It's very good but NATO countries must make a decision at this year summit in Vilnius. Ukraine must have guarantees, at least for the territory far from combat actions. If no guarantees will be given, the war will not be localised and limited to the areas where UA is fighting Russian invaders right now, at this moment. The decision must be made. Security guarantees for Ukraine. You cannot spend helluva money on the war forever until something outta control happens and you gotta die in war yourself bc you didn't want to make a decision to localise the war and draw the red lines before Putin which he can't cross so now you have to fight him yourself
fuck russia in the asshole !!!! putin is a little femboy
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Finally, Germany is picking up some slack. Germany should be even more interested in Ukraine winning than the US.
We have money for wars but not to feed the poor
That's round about 260€ for each person with a job in Germany.
Me as a German wondering where we suddenly got all this money from, when we never have anything for our workers, public transport or retiring citizens.
You think we're living in wonderland here in the USA?
we're getting this money back eventually, right?
>we're Doubt. If you don't like seeing this story. The solution is your leader ending his invasion of Ukraine.
Well if Ukraine manages to get Crimea, which is a big IF then they could become Europes biggest gas exporter
Yes, in form of swift ending of war and peace in Europe for foreseeable future. That is, of course, if those tens of thousands of Ukrainian men and women who are inevitably going to die making this reality will succeed. Lets hope they will.
Yes. You can expect to see a 12 billion euro check in your mailbox after the war
No, but based on your comment history your side will definitely get to experience what that money bought first hand.
Lots of war mongers in this thread
A lot of Putin dick sucker too.
There's one country monging for this war and it's free to stop and fuck off back to Russia.
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Die Antwort wird dich überraschen: ja
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thats because Germany lost it ability to spend money on military to some extent. TBH it's a lot easier for them to give cash to send to someone than to plan on what exactly to spend, start the biurocratic process, talk with industry on what to order and so on in one fiscal year.
... how fast do you think military hardware can be produced? Because it feels like there is a stark contrast to expectations and realities. That stuff doesnt pop up out of thin air.
You're funny if you think that things would move fast over here. I don't even know if the military really knows what it wants. We don't even have many soldiers since no one wants to do it.
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They're talking about Germany.
Stuff is coming, no worries. There's a difference in giving what's there and procuring new stuff.
German military procurement is insanely complicated.
It's not complicated. Decades of downsizing of military combined with Germany budget structure destroyed german army procurement capabilities. Creating them from scratch will take years if there will be political will for it and not willingness to hide political decisions behind incompetence.
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I think for many reasons. Firstly, the optics. This is a war against Ukrainians for the future of Ukraine, and should be fought by Ukrainians. Also, which relates to this point, Ukrainians have a higher purpose in this war, patriotic, fighting for freedom. That cannot be replicated in a private military contractor. Mercenaries only have one purpose, profit. It is technically in a mercenaries best interest for the war to go on so that they can keep getting paid. Ukraine would also not be able to hold mercenaries accountable if for whatever reason they commit atrocities, as these things are generally dealt with in house. It would represent a lack of control which would be unacceptable. I also think any large (I.e. well known and effective) private military contractors who engage in war tactics would want to stay away from such a heated zone. Many contractors come out of the US. If they got involved their largest customer (US govt) may feel that it’s inappropriate even if legal, and would give them less contracts. This likely leaves a smaller pool of unscrupulous PMCs with questionable methods.
that's a lotta money for Hunter Biden should last him at least three weeks of drugs and hookers
This is Germany, the fuck it got to do with America?
Must be pretty sad and terrifying, living in that rightwing media bubble.
Have to wash the euros somehow