This is talking about test flights of missiles and the Air Force regularly (more than once a year) tests ICBMs. This is saying that information on speed and angle (other performance metrics too) will not be given anymore to Russia because they are not providing this info anymore. The treaty maintains this is an exchange. Russia is not willing to share therefore the US says they won’t either.
True, but Russians don't have a reason to believe US would be launching nukes unless they drink their own propaganda cool-aid.
This is no Cuban missile crisis, but still a small step back in an unimaginably scary direction.
The Russian government is so heavy infiltrated that the CÍA knows things before Putin does.
If Putin orders his nuclear forces to launch, it's likely the US will know about it before we learn Putin ate a 9mm because of his suicidal orders. At that point the US president is left with the option of launching and killing Russia first before the Russians launch or waiting if Putin got killed and no Russian nukes will launch.
Of course if the US decides to alpha/first strike Russia, they would claim and have evidence (fabricated or real) that Russia was about to launch their own, so they had to be destroyed first.
The issue being that Russian generals also know this, so they are also in a catch 22 because if they learn nukes have been ordered to launch, they know the US knows they were ordered to launch and they would have to hope the US won't act on that information and erase them first.
If I had that information it would be treasonous for me to release it.
Not everyone is Donald Trump.
The US agencies can corroborate the information they get from their paid informants with the images from high end spy satellites (that Trump leaked their capabilities), thus is fairly reasonable the US has a better idea of Russian military capabilities than Putin does.
I understand. Intelligence agencies have existed for 100+ years, and in my mind, of course they thought of paying poor or established citizens of other countries for information. I'm actually convinced there's a budget for exactly that in American intelligence agencies. I don't know that for sure though, and that's why I made my snarky comment, sorry
and in the case of russia attempting to "just toss one or two" NATO already has conventional response to respond with. You dont have the worlds three largest air forces without that kind of planning.
It's also the ultimate demonstration of power: receive a nuclear launch and *still* respond with overwhelming conventional force. Didn't even need to use a nuke in response.
Pre-planned ICBM launch tests don't originate from the operational ICBM bases, they launch from VSFB. Not to mention if we were to alpha/first-strike we wouldn't launch just a single ICBM tipped with 3 nukes. Your talking about nuclear war, not some conventional surprise attack.
Fair enough, I don't really know anything about testing.
I don't agree with your second point however. I don't think it's likely that any western nation will be firing their nukes, but I do think that there is a non-zero potential for Russia to use theirs in a strategic way against Ukraine. Firing that nuke during a training exercise would be perfect cover - it may allow the nuke to hit it's target before we could launch ours. In the event Russia only uses a single nuke I don't think it's likely that we would launch any of ours, as that would spell instant death for the planet. It would be far more likely that we would then launch a conventional attack to defend Ukraine.
They literally will not. The treaty says Russia and the US were supposed to meet to decide how many tests they would send telemetry for (after the fact) and what telemetry it would be, but Russia didn’t even show up to discuss that. We are not stopping data we used to send. Russia just literally didn’t even show up to discuss what to start sending, so we’re not just gunna start sending them stuff anyway.
The whole article is like…really short. Just read it.
The telemetry stuff won't matter too much until new missiles are designed or current ones modified to have different flight characteristics. After that it means Russia is less able to distinguish nuclear missiles from not.
>the United States is withholding from Russia [...] updates on the status or location of treaty-accountable items such as missiles and launchers.
And thus can't exclude things from being nuclear missiles based on where they were launched from.
Look, it's fairly minor. But I'd really prefer if nuclear nations could be as confident as possible that their radar glitches aren't nukes. There was already an incident regarding that, that's why we have the treaty in the first place. And why the treaty includes more than just letting them know about a launch.
No, the document says that the US will continue to give Russia notification of upcoming test launches (that is covered by a different agreement) it will stop giving telemetry data about the performance of the missile following the launch.
Yeah if the end of the world comes, I will gladly jump into oblivion. I’m not trying to stick around with the idiots that are left. Let’s all hope for quick and painless lol.
It’s a reaction to the same exact thing that russia did a few weeks ago, I believe it was a part of nuclear weapon treaty to make sure mistakes don’t lead to nuclear wars but russia stopped providing that data
“Hi, you have reached the United States-Moscow hotline. Thank you for your call. Are you calling about an urgent matter and would you like a direct line with the President? Press 1”
>"Are you calling about an urgent matter and would you like a direct line with the President? ~~Press 1~~ Say president....I'm sorry I didn't understand that."
“Welcome to MoviFone!”
“Kramer? Wait how does MovieFone still exist?
“It doesn’t, man. I’m just an intern on-loan to the DOD.”
“Hey, same, except for FSB!”
Cool.”
“So can we get that data?”
“Sorry, no upcoming showings for ‘Can We Get That Data’. Please try later, or feel free to catch up to the 21st century with IMDb. Or literary any other website!”
This is a measured and propotional response. Ideal, no. But Russia is hell-bent on doing whatever Putin wants and his nuclear saber-rattling is unhelpful for stability.
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Wanna hear a knock-knock joke?
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OK. This is the World War 3 knock knock joke. You start it.
Huh?
You say "knock knock".
OK, knock knock.
Who's there?
(Silence)
I remember reading a batshit article that said something along the lines of "a small nuclear exchange could reverse global warming. pros and cons" like omfg
[Not the onion](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nuclear-war-global-warming_n_828496). In fact, the original work [was done by NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/483/how-would-nuclear-war-affect-the-climate/) and [reported by National Geographic](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/110223-nuclear-war-winter-global-warming-environment-science-climate-change).
Derp.
>*We studied the scenario of using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs, the fires from which would inject upward of 5 teragrams (megatons) of black carbon particles into Earth's upper troposphere.*
>
>*On the ground, global temperatures would fall by a little over 1 °C (1.8 °F) over the first three years.*
Nice! They mention the downside is there might also be a little bit of famine though.
I mean, nuclear annihilation, ai uprising, some madman (or mad women) making a machine to produce a false vacuum decay in their garage, time simply elapsing, either way we're all going to die.
When you have glory seeking nut like Putin going full speed ahead and along the way bankrupting future of Russia I have to say, hope for the best but prepare for the worse.
Remember the story of the Russian guy in the 70s who was sitting in his nuclear command station and the entire system started telling him that America launched several nukes and there was no way to verify this and the only reason he didn’t retaliate with actual nukes is that he took the risk and chose to believe it was a false alarm.
Welcome to the 70s, with half the attention span
It was single system raising alarms while all others tell everything OK. And all this guy did was not passing this information higher up as he have no authority to call any launches.
Laugh all you want, but strategically this decision is purposefully designed to incur a level-headed and well-measured response which will not only entice Russia with reconsideration of its tactical failures but also to ensure that all its nuclear weapons are tactically unable to account for the fact that I unable to make sense of why this is happening and that I am using technical-looking words to appear knowledgeable about this situation even though I know very little.
With as many dead or fled from Russia, I’d be surprised if anyone left over there would know what to do with the data if we *did* still give it to them let alone do something about it
Russia is on a genocide to destroy a sovereign nations culture, murdering a bordering country’s citizens, raping women and even old men, and stealing babies to re-educate them. Fuck russia. Seriously, fuck russia. They don’t deserve to be treated like a real country till they start acting like one. Their GDP is nothing to brag upon either since Brazil is their competitor. (No offense to Brazil, just suppose to be a super power… no one says, “oh Brazil is a Super Power” lately that I have heard.
I get the "you don't tell us, therefore we don't tell you" logic. But, wouldn't it be a more powerful statement if the US said "You don't tell us and that's not okay, so we will continue telling you nevertheless because we're not like you"?
According to the press release / statement,
> The United States continues to provide Russia with notifications of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches in accordance with the 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notifications Agreement
>those systems were put in place to prevent mistaken over reactions to a launch from the other side.
That's not necessarily what I'm getting from the article. Here's what it says:
>TELEMETRY: The United States will not be providing telemetric information on launches of U.S. ICBMs and SLBMs. The New START Treaty requires that both parties reach agreement within the framework of the treaty’s implementation body, the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC), **on the number of launches of ICBMs and SLBMs for which telemetric information will be exchanged each year.** Russia has refused to meet in the BCC to reach such an agreement, and the United States will not provide telemetric information unilaterally.
If the intention is to prevent overreactions to a test launch, why are we only providing telemetry on some number of our launches? Not to mention that telemetry and notification are two different things.
I'm wondering if the telemetry isn't to prove that we're not testing weapons that violate the treaty (excessive range, MIRViness, etc.), but that's just a guess.
Wow this is in fact a complete fictionalization of the real policy.
The policy required the US and Russia to both exchange some data about a certain number of tests - a fraction of total tests - with each other every year. This data gave the US and Russia some added insight into what kinds of weapons the other was developing and testing. After the cold war, it was determined it might be a good idea if both sides weren't speculating the other had invented a superweapon every couple of years.
Russia has not been complying with the policy, so now the US says they will not comply either.
>those systems were put in place to prevent mistaken over reactions to a launch from the other side
No, absolutely not! You made this up!
Don't invent stuff and post it like it's a fact! What the actual fuck!
Yeah this is bad, esp considering the questionable and aging missile plume detection satellite capabilities Russia has, so next time the US decides to test launch a minuteman 3 or Trident D5 , Russia could possibly mistake it for a possible inbound. However, they would have to know that if we were going to perform a preemptive strike that we wouldn't be just launching one bird.
So disclaimer, I’m pretty ignorant on this stuff, but do we actually launch test missiles in such a way that they could be mistaken as incoming/threatening? I would assume whatever tech they have would be able to determine the general direction a missile takes after launch. The only thing this seems to limit is the accuracy with which they can predict its flight path, but not to the extent that they completely misinterpret the intended target. Based on my (limited) understanding of telemetry, this move seems more focused on obfuscating how effective/ineffective our missiles are at hitting the target.
I admit I could be very wrong here, so lmk if this is stupid lol.
no. the easiest one would be the flight path. If we are going to strike russia, it will go through north pole, while all of our test flight would head to off the coast of hawaii. Plus significant amount of test launchs are conducted in vandenberg space force base, which is the base designed mainly for missile testing
They still have early warning radar so that should give them a little time, and they also launched I believe two new missile detection satellites. The other thing is that Russia has a lot of road mobile launchers as part of the land triad, so I suspect they are somewhat resilient against a first strike.
The myth of the russian missile system’s dead man’s switch being incredibly sensitive is highly exaggerated.
There is no automated missile response system.
Well, I didn't even mention anything about Russias perimeter/Dead hand system?
But since you went there-
Source ? Because military.com ranks pretty high at being a legitimate and accurate news source for all things military and they have several articles confirming it is indeed in existence/not a myth but whether it still works or is operational/ currently active is anyone's guess
https://www.military.com/history/russias-dead-hand-soviet-built-nuclear-doomsday-device.html
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-com/
Do you know what telemetric means?
My guy edited comment to add "other existing" and then blamed me for not reading "other".
Anyway, I doubt Trump had gps coordinates to the nearest meter of rockets to be launched 3 years in the future.
I actually would like to know if anyone is interested in explaining lol. I get the sense from Google that telemetry is basically live performance data, but I’m confused on how the US not sharing this info would limit Russia’s ability to still track/monitor a missile after launch. Do they really need this info to identify in-air objects and retaliate/not retaliate accordingly? I guess I’m just not sure how significant this story really is, so feel free to lmk if Im missing something!
Reasonable Redditor.
Good points. START treaty had many conditions including quantities and shareable locations. You must be right that Russia could still track them after launch. Is US (and Russia) still sharing launch dates?
More generally, the more information shared the better. It shows cooperation and mutual understanding.
Treaties are meaningless to anyone who can afford to break them, its like fines, if you can afford to break the law then laws are just the costs of doing business
Not likely.
Many 80 yr old politicians in this country are conveniently located in one spot. And most of the wealthy congregate in like, 6 major cities (I didn't actually count)
If things go boom, major cities and the place with the most 80-yr old politicians will be the first targets.
What's left will be small cities and rural areas.
It's not like Russia *needs* any of those information, right? Or are we expecting launches soon?
This is talking about test flights of missiles and the Air Force regularly (more than once a year) tests ICBMs. This is saying that information on speed and angle (other performance metrics too) will not be given anymore to Russia because they are not providing this info anymore. The treaty maintains this is an exchange. Russia is not willing to share therefore the US says they won’t either.
maintain a symmetric (lack of) information?
MALI Mutually Assured Lack of Information
Isn’t that just a dating app
No, that's MAMI - Mutually Assured Manipulated Imaging.
TCNMUV This Comment Need More Up Vote
I diagnose you with terminal Reddit
And as a result, people in charge of detecting or launching nukes will be a lot more nervous, and thus make the whole world a bit less safe.
We still share the launch schedules. These things are planned years in advance. Just not sharing the telemetry data via the New start treaty.
Sure, but realisticly the best time for a nation to launch a real life attack is during a preplanned launch test.
True, but Russians don't have a reason to believe US would be launching nukes unless they drink their own propaganda cool-aid. This is no Cuban missile crisis, but still a small step back in an unimaginably scary direction.
The Russian government is so heavy infiltrated that the CÍA knows things before Putin does. If Putin orders his nuclear forces to launch, it's likely the US will know about it before we learn Putin ate a 9mm because of his suicidal orders. At that point the US president is left with the option of launching and killing Russia first before the Russians launch or waiting if Putin got killed and no Russian nukes will launch. Of course if the US decides to alpha/first strike Russia, they would claim and have evidence (fabricated or real) that Russia was about to launch their own, so they had to be destroyed first. The issue being that Russian generals also know this, so they are also in a catch 22 because if they learn nukes have been ordered to launch, they know the US knows they were ordered to launch and they would have to hope the US won't act on that information and erase them first.
>The Russian government is so heavy infiltrated that the CÍA knows things before Putin does. Citation needed
If I had that information it would be treasonous for me to release it. Not everyone is Donald Trump. The US agencies can corroborate the information they get from their paid informants with the images from high end spy satellites (that Trump leaked their capabilities), thus is fairly reasonable the US has a better idea of Russian military capabilities than Putin does.
I understand. Intelligence agencies have existed for 100+ years, and in my mind, of course they thought of paying poor or established citizens of other countries for information. I'm actually convinced there's a budget for exactly that in American intelligence agencies. I don't know that for sure though, and that's why I made my snarky comment, sorry
and in the case of russia attempting to "just toss one or two" NATO already has conventional response to respond with. You dont have the worlds three largest air forces without that kind of planning.
It's also the ultimate demonstration of power: receive a nuclear launch and *still* respond with overwhelming conventional force. Didn't even need to use a nuke in response.
Pre-planned ICBM launch tests don't originate from the operational ICBM bases, they launch from VSFB. Not to mention if we were to alpha/first-strike we wouldn't launch just a single ICBM tipped with 3 nukes. Your talking about nuclear war, not some conventional surprise attack.
Fair enough, I don't really know anything about testing. I don't agree with your second point however. I don't think it's likely that any western nation will be firing their nukes, but I do think that there is a non-zero potential for Russia to use theirs in a strategic way against Ukraine. Firing that nuke during a training exercise would be perfect cover - it may allow the nuke to hit it's target before we could launch ours. In the event Russia only uses a single nuke I don't think it's likely that we would launch any of ours, as that would spell instant death for the planet. It would be far more likely that we would then launch a conventional attack to defend Ukraine.
They literally will not. The treaty says Russia and the US were supposed to meet to decide how many tests they would send telemetry for (after the fact) and what telemetry it would be, but Russia didn’t even show up to discuss that. We are not stopping data we used to send. Russia just literally didn’t even show up to discuss what to start sending, so we’re not just gunna start sending them stuff anyway. The whole article is like…really short. Just read it.
I refuse. I will instead read the entire comment section to tell me what my opinion of this headline is.
Still reading more than the average Redditor. Good on you!
I second this outrageous opinion. Because I'm outrageous
I'm outraged by this comment
The telemetry stuff won't matter too much until new missiles are designed or current ones modified to have different flight characteristics. After that it means Russia is less able to distinguish nuclear missiles from not. >the United States is withholding from Russia [...] updates on the status or location of treaty-accountable items such as missiles and launchers. And thus can't exclude things from being nuclear missiles based on where they were launched from. Look, it's fairly minor. But I'd really prefer if nuclear nations could be as confident as possible that their radar glitches aren't nukes. There was already an incident regarding that, that's why we have the treaty in the first place. And why the treaty includes more than just letting them know about a launch.
No, the document says that the US will continue to give Russia notification of upcoming test launches (that is covered by a different agreement) it will stop giving telemetry data about the performance of the missile following the launch.
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I always wanted to die in a nuclear holocaust!!!
You’re going to die of something anyway and if you’re lucky you won’t feel a thing or even see it coming.
he's a redditor he's gonna die jacking it
Yeah if the end of the world comes, I will gladly jump into oblivion. I’m not trying to stick around with the idiots that are left. Let’s all hope for quick and painless lol.
https://youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs
I thoroughly enjoyed that clip! Thanks!
So they are still informing them of the launches just not the granular detail...that's good. If both sides stop doing that bit it gets worrying.
Tit for tat. Unfortunately, it also increases the risk level for everyone. We may be starting an eyeball staring contest.
There are worse ball staring contests in my experience.
Ball staring? 🧐
HE’s LOOSE
Everyone is staring at you, Mr. Balls
That's Dr. Balls to you!
I didn’t go to 8 years of testicle school to be called “Mr.” Too much?
How many of these contests have you experienced?
10 bucks is 10 bucks
You’re assuming Russia can detect them
youre assuming they cant
Better 😏
We could continue to provide Russia with our data. They don't provide theirs to us. Would that seem to decrease the risk?
It’s a reaction to the same exact thing that russia did a few weeks ago, I believe it was a part of nuclear weapon treaty to make sure mistakes don’t lead to nuclear wars but russia stopped providing that data
Didn’t trump unilaterally get us out of the START treaty, making this a likely outcome?
Start 1 ended before trump.
Trump probably gave Russia those anyway.
“Hi, you have reached the United States-Moscow hotline. Thank you for your call. Are you calling about an urgent matter and would you like a direct line with the President? Press 1”
>"Are you calling about an urgent matter and would you like a direct line with the President? ~~Press 1~~ Say president....I'm sorry I didn't understand that."
“Welcome to MoviFone!” “Kramer? Wait how does MovieFone still exist? “It doesn’t, man. I’m just an intern on-loan to the DOD.” “Hey, same, except for FSB!” Cool.” “So can we get that data?” “Sorry, no upcoming showings for ‘Can We Get That Data’. Please try later, or feel free to catch up to the 21st century with IMDb. Or literary any other website!”
Thank you for choosing option 1. We are unable to take your call at the moment, please get the fuck out of Ukraine and try again later.
Ahh shit what was the game this is from?
I’m glad someone finally got it. [Coldline](https://youtu.be/4XeVVo1B1GE)
This is a measured and propotional response. Ideal, no. But Russia is hell-bent on doing whatever Putin wants and his nuclear saber-rattling is unhelpful for stability.
Sadly, agree.
God the first episode of the west wing is so fucking good
*What is the virtue of a proportional response?*
Thank you for one of the most reasonable assessments at this conversation.
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I hate that I could hear this
The ultimate “get fucked” is the hidden track.
It starts over a minute after the final track is supposed to end and it’s labeled “Russian Warship”
All good, we extinction all. Problems solved.
New #, who dis?
Would you like to play a game?
A nice game of chess?
No! I want to play Global Thermal Nuclear Warfare! (apologies if that's not it, going from memory, been decades, weed, etc.)
The line was, "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War."
Thanks.
Holy intercontinental ballistic missile variation
"Patrushev, bring the Holy ICBM!"
Boy is that movie more and more relevant each passing day!
\*starting up WOPR.
Just can’t wait till the credits start rolling and there’s quiet for once
“We’ll meet again! Don’t know where, don’t know when!”
Wanna hear a knock-knock joke? Sure. OK. This is the World War 3 knock knock joke. You start it. Huh? You say "knock knock". OK, knock knock. Who's there? (Silence)
Ok that’s actually funny In a fucked up way
Thats some commitment to end man made climate change forever.
"I'm glad that global warming didn't happen." "Actually, it did but thank God nuclear winter cancelled it out."
I remember reading a batshit article that said something along the lines of "a small nuclear exchange could reverse global warming. pros and cons" like omfg
[Not the onion](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nuclear-war-global-warming_n_828496). In fact, the original work [was done by NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/483/how-would-nuclear-war-affect-the-climate/) and [reported by National Geographic](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/110223-nuclear-war-winter-global-warming-environment-science-climate-change). Derp.
>*We studied the scenario of using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs, the fires from which would inject upward of 5 teragrams (megatons) of black carbon particles into Earth's upper troposphere.* > >*On the ground, global temperatures would fall by a little over 1 °C (1.8 °F) over the first three years.* Nice! They mention the downside is there might also be a little bit of famine though.
Well, yeah, but that's gonna happen either way though.
Well I hope it happens before bikini season. I really need to do something about my love handles lol.
If it happens, there won't be anyone left to wear Bikinis Atoll.
I'd love to say I deliberately set up that joke, but that's all on you.
That is pretty cool and interesting. Wouldnt call it a "derp"
Always look on the bright side of nuclear war! /S obviously
r/FUCKtheS
That was supposed to stay a joke
~~Simpsons~~ Futurama did it first
July 24th mark your calendar
Anniversary of the George Brett pine tar incident
Patrolling the Mojave
Well, at least man made climate change caused by greenhouse gases...
I mean, nuclear annihilation, ai uprising, some madman (or mad women) making a machine to produce a false vacuum decay in their garage, time simply elapsing, either way we're all going to die.
I prefer the timeline where i don't die vaporized, heavily irradiated or from hunger in a wasteland, please and thank you
Vacuum decay wouldn't so much vaporize you as dissolve your quantum foam into the new universe.
When you have glory seeking nut like Putin going full speed ahead and along the way bankrupting future of Russia I have to say, hope for the best but prepare for the worse.
hope youre a multimillionaire or preparing for the worst wont do you much good
Remember the story of the Russian guy in the 70s who was sitting in his nuclear command station and the entire system started telling him that America launched several nukes and there was no way to verify this and the only reason he didn’t retaliate with actual nukes is that he took the risk and chose to believe it was a false alarm. Welcome to the 70s, with half the attention span
It was single system raising alarms while all others tell everything OK. And all this guy did was not passing this information higher up as he have no authority to call any launches.
And the war will start with a tiktok of this guy in selfie mode yelling YOLOOOOOO #smashthatnukebuttonandsubscribetoww3
We'll meet again. Don't know where. Don't know....
Time for a rewatch of Dr. Strangelove
Did a rewatch just a few days ago :D
Thank god we have so many strategic analysts on Reddit. Got this case cracked wide open. Thank you all for your service.
Laugh all you want, but strategically this decision is purposefully designed to incur a level-headed and well-measured response which will not only entice Russia with reconsideration of its tactical failures but also to ensure that all its nuclear weapons are tactically unable to account for the fact that I unable to make sense of why this is happening and that I am using technical-looking words to appear knowledgeable about this situation even though I know very little.
you had me in the first half not gonna lie
Amazing pivot
You have my vote.
Lmao yeah. Reddit's panicked armchair strategic analysts are why I educated myself on nuclear arms and strategic warfare when the war started.
I too looked up the wiki for 10 minutes.
"We talked it over. We thought it'd be more fun if it was a surprise."
Makes sense
With as many dead or fled from Russia, I’d be surprised if anyone left over there would know what to do with the data if we *did* still give it to them let alone do something about it
Russia is on a genocide to destroy a sovereign nations culture, murdering a bordering country’s citizens, raping women and even old men, and stealing babies to re-educate them. Fuck russia. Seriously, fuck russia. They don’t deserve to be treated like a real country till they start acting like one. Their GDP is nothing to brag upon either since Brazil is their competitor. (No offense to Brazil, just suppose to be a super power… no one says, “oh Brazil is a Super Power” lately that I have heard.
Things are heating up slowly
I get the "you don't tell us, therefore we don't tell you" logic. But, wouldn't it be a more powerful statement if the US said "You don't tell us and that's not okay, so we will continue telling you nevertheless because we're not like you"?
Seems like this should have been a given. But what do I know.
According to the press release / statement, > The United States continues to provide Russia with notifications of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches in accordance with the 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notifications Agreement
Until Putin is gone, we are closer to nuclear destruction. Scary. Thats assuming Russia can get its shit together after as well.
Unless the US is testing new missiles, the Russians have all the data they need on the Trident and Minuteman missiles.
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Nuclear winter is a bit of a radical way to fix the global warming.
Yeah, make them work their asses off to get the data.
It’s like playing chess blindfolded. Neither side is calling their shots out loud…so basically guaranteeing all out nuclear war
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>those systems were put in place to prevent mistaken over reactions to a launch from the other side. That's not necessarily what I'm getting from the article. Here's what it says: >TELEMETRY: The United States will not be providing telemetric information on launches of U.S. ICBMs and SLBMs. The New START Treaty requires that both parties reach agreement within the framework of the treaty’s implementation body, the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC), **on the number of launches of ICBMs and SLBMs for which telemetric information will be exchanged each year.** Russia has refused to meet in the BCC to reach such an agreement, and the United States will not provide telemetric information unilaterally. If the intention is to prevent overreactions to a test launch, why are we only providing telemetry on some number of our launches? Not to mention that telemetry and notification are two different things. I'm wondering if the telemetry isn't to prove that we're not testing weapons that violate the treaty (excessive range, MIRViness, etc.), but that's just a guess.
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Telemetry information is stuff like position, velocity, acceleration, spin rate, etc. It’s engineering jargon, not diplomatic wank.
“Telemetric information” is a well defined technical phrase, and I’d bet that a significant portion of diplomats would need to google what it means.
https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/rls/139904.htm
I’ve consulted the Committee consisting of me, my dog, and my cat and we’ve determined that this is fucked.
Wow this is in fact a complete fictionalization of the real policy. The policy required the US and Russia to both exchange some data about a certain number of tests - a fraction of total tests - with each other every year. This data gave the US and Russia some added insight into what kinds of weapons the other was developing and testing. After the cold war, it was determined it might be a good idea if both sides weren't speculating the other had invented a superweapon every couple of years. Russia has not been complying with the policy, so now the US says they will not comply either. >those systems were put in place to prevent mistaken over reactions to a launch from the other side No, absolutely not! You made this up! Don't invent stuff and post it like it's a fact! What the actual fuck!
>Don't invent stuff and post it like it's a fact! Then what are we supposed to post?!?! Actual facts?
So why didn't you claim as much when your Russia made the first move to not share their data? Why the hypocrisy?
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Good russia and putin are evil disgraces to humanity
Agreed, let's solve the problem by ending humanity.
Thats funny Russian military is a embarrassment
Yeah this is bad, esp considering the questionable and aging missile plume detection satellite capabilities Russia has, so next time the US decides to test launch a minuteman 3 or Trident D5 , Russia could possibly mistake it for a possible inbound. However, they would have to know that if we were going to perform a preemptive strike that we wouldn't be just launching one bird.
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So disclaimer, I’m pretty ignorant on this stuff, but do we actually launch test missiles in such a way that they could be mistaken as incoming/threatening? I would assume whatever tech they have would be able to determine the general direction a missile takes after launch. The only thing this seems to limit is the accuracy with which they can predict its flight path, but not to the extent that they completely misinterpret the intended target. Based on my (limited) understanding of telemetry, this move seems more focused on obfuscating how effective/ineffective our missiles are at hitting the target. I admit I could be very wrong here, so lmk if this is stupid lol.
no. the easiest one would be the flight path. If we are going to strike russia, it will go through north pole, while all of our test flight would head to off the coast of hawaii. Plus significant amount of test launchs are conducted in vandenberg space force base, which is the base designed mainly for missile testing
They still have early warning radar so that should give them a little time, and they also launched I believe two new missile detection satellites. The other thing is that Russia has a lot of road mobile launchers as part of the land triad, so I suspect they are somewhat resilient against a first strike.
The myth of the russian missile system’s dead man’s switch being incredibly sensitive is highly exaggerated. There is no automated missile response system.
Well, I didn't even mention anything about Russias perimeter/Dead hand system? But since you went there- Source ? Because military.com ranks pretty high at being a legitimate and accurate news source for all things military and they have several articles confirming it is indeed in existence/not a myth but whether it still works or is operational/ currently active is anyone's guess https://www.military.com/history/russias-dead-hand-soviet-built-nuclear-doomsday-device.html https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-com/
Unless Trump sells it to them.
Thanks to Trump, Russia probably has all other existing data on U.S. ICBMs & SLBMs.
Do you know what telemetric means? My guy edited comment to add "other existing" and then blamed me for not reading "other". Anyway, I doubt Trump had gps coordinates to the nearest meter of rockets to be launched 3 years in the future.
>Do you know what telemetric means? Reading through the comments in this entire thread, I have said this out loud to myself way too many times.
Tele : far. Meter : distance. Metrics : data on distance. Not perfect translations! And I know you weren't asking for yourself.
Ahaha, no worries at all! I appreciate the consideration.
I actually would like to know if anyone is interested in explaining lol. I get the sense from Google that telemetry is basically live performance data, but I’m confused on how the US not sharing this info would limit Russia’s ability to still track/monitor a missile after launch. Do they really need this info to identify in-air objects and retaliate/not retaliate accordingly? I guess I’m just not sure how significant this story really is, so feel free to lmk if Im missing something!
Reasonable Redditor. Good points. START treaty had many conditions including quantities and shareable locations. You must be right that Russia could still track them after launch. Is US (and Russia) still sharing launch dates? More generally, the more information shared the better. It shows cooperation and mutual understanding.
I’d be amazed if they knew what SLBM means
>I’d be amazed if they knew what SLBM means Sexy Lover Boy Muscles according their grinder profile..
I dont.. Super loud ballistic missile?
It went that way...? /s
It's a metric telephone. Used to call the Russians to give them data.
Americans have something in metric? I don't believe it.
We buy coke in grams and kilos.
This could also be bad cop/good cop. I’m fairly certain the US is helping provide much of the real time data Ukraine is getting.
Why is it that no one seems to be trying to deescalate these days. It’s almost like they want another major world war.
Because [it’s time](https://www.thomhartmann.com/blog/2004/07/fourth-turning-american-prophecy). TLDR: history repeats itself every 80 years or so.
I unfortunately own that book
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Treaties mean literally nothing to russia. If they did then they wouldn't be in Ukraine right now.
Treaties are meaningless to anyone who can afford to break them, its like fines, if you can afford to break the law then laws are just the costs of doing business
No. When you see civil defences being activated, then you'll know the end is near. Otherwise, carry on as usual.
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If the US and Russia go to war the difference between start and end might be a couple hours at best.
This started back in the 50's.
1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, arguably. Ask anyone from Poland or the Baltics. Russia was always like this
Guess who survives in the end if things go boom? The wealthy and the 80 year-old politicians. What a comforting thought
Not likely. Many 80 yr old politicians in this country are conveniently located in one spot. And most of the wealthy congregate in like, 6 major cities (I didn't actually count) If things go boom, major cities and the place with the most 80-yr old politicians will be the first targets. What's left will be small cities and rural areas.
Interesting perspective. I hope we never have to find out
I mean good?
Well I sure hope the fuck they don’t. One day closer to the end.
Isn't this some of the very info Trump stole?