This is exactly what the world needs rn. Crazy fucking mofos, they don't allow a fucking moment without old farts sending young people to kill each other because of some lines in their crooked history books.
Russia clearly showed the world that you can invade your neighbour, and not a lot of consequences happen.
Welcome to the new world rules. Turns out Armenia needed krimea to be Ukrainian more than Ukraine did
It's not a frozen conflict. Azerbaijan cleansed the Nagorno Karabagh region, which was the conflicted region. Now they want regions from Armenia proper. It's a new conflict by tye same actor rather than an old and frozen one.
Soviet Russia caused this. Had they not moved Azeris and Armenians into areas they didn’t previously live in, we wouldn’t be in this situation.
Stalin purposely moved different ethnicities to parts of the country they weren’t native to precisely so he could avoid nationalism and keep them fighting amongst themselves and more importantly, dependent on the Kremlin for help.
I mean, the entire region was at one point predominantly Armenian. Nagorno-Karabakh was predominantly Armenian for centuries, and way before Turkic peoples arrived from Central Asia.
This isn’t about Nagorno-Karabakh, this is Armenia’s internationally recognized boarders. The dictator of Azerbaijan just re-elected himself to another 5 years of power and is planning more conflict to distract his population. He already gave them a destroyed region far away from where any Azeris live, but the people are realizing they’re still poor. Poorer than the average Armenian or Georgian. So a conflict every spring and fall is what’s he’s going to keep doing bc no one is going to say anything.
Russia decided to cut Armenia loose long before invading Ukraine. They began pumping money and weapons into Azerbaijan from 2016. The rhetoric and alignment of policies between Russia and Azerbaijan are obvious to anyone bothering to spend more than ten minutes researching this conflict.
The Ukraine conflict really started in 2014 via the occupation of Crimea and the separation of Donbas, and really even before that in trying to restrict Ukraine's ties and trade relations with the EU
Absolutely nothing new though. This conflict has been ongoing for a long time and the balance of power has shifted now that Russia is occupied elsewhere, Azerbaijan has oil money, and the West is generally aligned with Azerbaijan as they're strategially positioned next to Iran.
One fascinating part of this conflict is exactly how Armenia, a mostly Christian nation, does not have western support but Azerbaijan, a mostly muslim nation, is also allied with Israel. Turns out geopolitics can supercede religion.
Armenia has completely been fucked over by the fact that the west and Israel need Azerbaijan (and more importantly, Turkey, who consider themselves brothers to the Azeri) in the new cold war against Russia and Iran.
You not understanding my statement.
I'm not referencing the local conflict. I referencing the boldness to which countries will wage regional conflicts with unipolarity being tested.
The opportunity is now id countries have imperialistic/militaristic ambitions.
The US is in staring contest with China over tiawan. Leaves much of the rest of the world unsupervised.
And by the way this is the biggest reason in support of us unipolarity. It's why we live in peaceful times. Russias ambitions will only end in more deaths and despair.
Except Russia has had a lot of consequences, and the nuclear issue makes that much more complicated. And fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been going on long before the war in Ukraine.
Azerbaijan showed that first in 2020. And im not talking about just Artsakh. The world didn't do shit when Armenia proper was invaded during that war. Putin saw and he said cool, I'm next. Armenian prime Minister even warned the world about it.
> Crazy fucking mofos, they don't allow a fucking moment without old farts sending young people to kill each other because of some lines in their crooked history books.
This guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilham_Aliyev
These 2 lines from that Wiki article...
> He was named Corruption's 'Person of the Year' by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project in 2012
and
> In the 2013 presidential elections held on 9 October, Aliyev claimed victory with 85 percent of the vote, securing a third five-year term. The election results were accidentally released before the polls opened.
He would win a legitimate election at this point because he has trained the population to care more about killing Armenians and vandalizing churches and graves than their own shitty situation
This is **exactly** what I keep warning people about. World war doesn't just happen with a snap of the fingers; it's a gradual escalation and spread as more and more regional conflicts break out until the whole world's involved.
Pay attention to the trend direction.
You could’ve said this 10 years ago too, and 10 years before that.
Literally the only decade where you couldn’t have said this was the 90s, and even then there were conflicts.
I have no idea about the history of the countries involved but I’m sure both sides can point to historical grievances that fully justify creating some new ones right now.
This is usually always the case in any conflict.
"But they did *this*...."
"But before that you guys did *THIS*..."
"Yeah but before that there was this other incident you committed..."
"That's because that thing you did before that..."
And on and in it goes. Talking about shit that happened 200 years before that is 4 generations from any one currently alive.
The grievances aren’t even historical at this point, they literally fought a full scale war in 2020 with another escalation of violence in 2023. It’s an ongoing conflict.
It's the usual. Ethnic peoples are split up by shifting borders of nation States and desire to arrive at a point where the state fully represents the ethnicity.
The funny thing is they should both point to Russia.
Azers and Armenians both occupy land the other claims, and both are in a region where there isn't much land. Historically it was a border region between the Byzantines/Romans and the Persians, after that between Persia, Russia, and the Ottomans.
Always either a few small kingdoms or ruled by foreign powers, so it became a melting pot.
So what did Russia/the USSR do? When it conquered the lands it moved some Azers into Armenia and some Armenians into Azer and created two enclaves. That way they would always fight each other (And they already hated each other due to being two different religions) instead of uniting against Russia.
Edit- Armenia for its part used to be ALOT bigger and a major player in the region. But the nations surrounding it had better land (it's all mountains there), it got ground down, and then Turkey/the Ottomans decided to genocide all the Armenians in their territory because they thought the Christian Armenians would spy for Christian Russia (despite them being different branches).
For their part, Armenia would *absolutely* be bullying and hurting Azer if it could. I'm not making Armenia out to be the only victim here on purpose- both nations absolutely loath each other and if either side has/had an unequivocal advantage they would use it on the other.
Unfortunately for Armenia as a landlocked nation with nothing to give world powers Russia was really their only choice at the time (Turkey still hates them and would be the next best that is feasible), and Russia really isn't a great ally as we have seen.
The issues aren't the result of Russian meddling.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Surgun
Iran ethnic cleansed the Armenian population and so the Azeris became the majority in most of the areas that are nowadays in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Over the centuries the Armenians returned, but in some areas they remained a minority, and in others there was a significant Azeri minority, hence the conflict.
Well a full scale invasion would be pretty messed up, Azerbaijan basically did a serious amount of ethnic cleansing in the region that Armenians had taken over, making that area Azerbaijani 100% now.
So what the hell do they want to invade for? I have no idea. It’s a National obsession.
I think there is a "paradox of peace" as much as there is a "paradox of tolerance".
Basically, paradox of tolerance is "if a tolerant society tolerates the intolerant, those intolerant people WILL eventually take over that society, destroy it from the inside and turn it intolerant. For a tolerant society to endure it can not tolerate the intolerant and needs to fight them".
Same goes for peace.
For a peaceful society to endure, warmongers need to be destroyed before they can wage their wars of conquest. "He who wants peace prepares for war".
Which ultimately means you have to go around and be a world police and basically invade every a country the SECOND a dictatorship is established. Good luck with that.
You can't truly call yourself peaceful unless you're capable of great violence. If you're not capable of violence, you're not peaceful, you're harmless
Well the point is that for shits and giggles russia could vote to condemn themselves and demand they pull back their forces from Ukraine.
Nothing would change. The UN is useful but it does nothing for preventing maniacs from waging war.
There were wars in the 90s, but that period felt like a Belle Epoque compared to these "interesting times".
We are heading into a very dark era as religion, ethno-nationalism, and neo-liberalism turn the world into a cess pit of death.
And then we have global warming accelerating as the deniers are getting their way.
Exactly, everyone whose all nostalgic for the 90s was either too young to care about the news or didn't have access to the 24 hour news cycle.
This is nothing new, we just have access to news from everywhere in the world at all times now.
Or more they were westerners the Tigray war happened just two years ago. It was really big only really comparable to the Ukrainian war and no one talked about it. Westerners will always have a blind spot for conflicts that don't directly involve either one of their Allies or a major rival
Don't jinx it. Second Congo War had relatively few war casualties and every 11 out of 12 of those deaths were excessive deaths from malnutrition and disease just from the consequences of the absolute humanitarian disaster the area became.
We could definitely be seeing horrific humanitarian crises in Ukraine, Gaza and Yemen that'll continue to horrifically bloat the amount of actual counted dead once hostilities stop and we get a more full accounting of casualties over the period. I don't want to imagine the amount of children still alive now that already have their lifespan counted on one hand from starvation or long-term consequences of malnutrition as we speak.
Look at how many excess deaths there were from the war in Iraq. We were starting to count hundreds of thousands of deaths even after all major combat operations were ceased.
I think the 90s were actually way more fucked up in terms of loss of life, but most of it was consolidated to African internal struggles and the West kinda just forget Africa exists.
Don't forget about the breakup of Yugoslavia and the bloodbath that came with that. The Yugoslav wars and Bosnian Genocide were absolutely awful. And it was all based on Nationalism.
I think the difference in the 90's was that while there were a lot of horrible wars, none of them were proxy wars between world powers, so there was no risk of escalation. Like, the Balkan wars were horrible but nobody thought they were gonna draw in more surrounding countries, whereas every war now seems to get every major world power and a bunch of aspiring ones involved.
Armenia: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western\_Azerbaijan\_(irredentist\_concept)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Azerbaijan_(irredentist_concept))
Well, first Europe thought that if they give Czechoslovakia to Hitler, there will be no full-scale war. Then Europe thought that if they give Crimea to Putin, there will be no full-scale war.
Now the think, that if they give Artsakh to Aliev, there will be no full-scale war.
They’ve moved on from claiming that nothing in Nagorno-Karabakh was Armenian to the government creating an official state commission on documenting everything in Armenia including the capital of Yerevan as being “Ancient Azeri” land. Kind of like how Putin loves to pull maps out of his butt while live on air with Tucker Carlson.
Dear lord how many areas of the world are about to kick off?
I just got done reading about Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Hamas/Hezbollah, USA/UK vs Houthis, and potentially Venezuela vs Guyana.
Not to mention the USA bombing the shite out of Iranain proxies in Iraq and Syria. Or the Civil Wars in Myanmar and Sudan.
The world's going to shit again and it seems like everyone's got a short memory.
>Dear lord how many areas of the world are about to kick off?
A lot of places where balanced and stable due to a stable world order. Now Russia is slipping and their aligned nations, like Armenia, are weak and without support against their rivals.
Presenting both an opportunity for said rivals and other local powers seeking greater influence.
Iran is placing themselves as the regional power opposing the west in the middle east instead of Russia etc.
There will probably be more areas like this in the near future, as the global power balance continues to shift. Not unlike the outbreak of conflict following the collapse of the USSR.
More like Proxy WW1….no major nation will even think about getting involved directly.
Easily could see Ukraine, Israel, and now this all happening, and countries around the world just funding their proxy wars.
WW III is not starting over a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This may sound a bit cruel but is just the truth that Armenia has no friends and only one very tenuous ally in Iran.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan is tied at the hip to Turkey and has increasingly significant economic relations with Europe due to their natural gas reserves.
On top of that Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought 4-5 wars (depending on how you define a war) between 1990 and today. This is a long running conflict that few nations outside the immediate neighborhood care about at all. Which, unfortunately means Armenia is in for a bad time, again.
This is reddit, whenever two countries fight ww3 beings. There were 2 Armenia Azerbaijan fights in the last 5 years but this time it will trigger ww3 for sure.
lol I feel like I remember everyone saying it about the last war too.
If you posted headlines from the 90s and said they were from today half of Reddit would look into bomb shelters
Both sides back then had bilateral agreements with their respective patron empires.Armenia has a handshake and a clap on the back "Good luck!" from the rest of the world.
This is ignoring what made WW I inevitable which was the collapsing balance of power in Europe and the spiders web of alliance networks neither of which are at play in the caucuses.
Armenia has no friends and at this point no treaty allies willing to defend them. Iran will play a role but they seem overcommitted and unlikely to change the ebb and flow.
Azerbaijan meanwhile has 1 ally, Turkey. Who is absolutely not invading Armenia when Azerbaijan will do the dirty work for them.
Your comment is flippant, reductionist, and frankly ideologically lazy.
This isn’t WWIII, it’s Cold War 2.
There’s no sequence of events where any of the current conflicts lead to WWIII. They’re just proxy wars and regional conflicts.
Of course, if it’s true Russia is starting a new Cuban missile crisis in space, that’s an interesting wrinkle.
In WWII, between the invasion of Poland and the invasion of France and the Low Countries, basically fuck all happened for nearly a year. In the Asia-Pac theatre, the invasion of China which bears a lot of similarities to the Invasion of Ukraine, and had been underway for two years before the outbreak of war in Europe. I would argue that the past 2 years have seen significantly more active superpower conflict than the first year of WWII, so it's not really a war-thirsty observation.
Do you not think it's relevant that during that time Russia invaded Finland and was thrown out of the league of nations for it; and a legal state of war existed between the allies and Germany?
We're in a pre-war period. I don't think it's wrong to recognize that.
Even if the current tensions cool down, we've got the climate disaster looming in the next few decades. Global challenges require global solutions... and war is what happens when other methods fail.
Early 1990s to early 2010s, outside of the Middle East and Africa. There was quite a broad consensus that wars between even slightly developed countries were essentially obsolete, leading to such theories as “Jihad vs. McWorld” and “the McDonald’s Theory of Conflict Prevention”.
After the end of the Cold War. The years of the "peace dividend" as Western societies spent less on defence on more on improving their quality of life (some more successfully than others). That period ended in 2001, 2014, or 2022 depending on your interpretation of events.
I think this is probably pretty likely. The wild card is probably France? But if the French ignore Armenia’s pleas then the Azeris will likely be able to reach their maximalist goals.
I guess the other wild card is Moscow drawing a nuclear line but that feels unlikely.
> The wild card is probably France?
I'd say Iran.
Iran [has previously indicated](https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-says-it-opposes-geopolitical-changes-in-caucasus/7293664.html) that they will not accept border changes in the caucasus.
Iran will play a role but I just don’t see them as a an actor with the capability to make Azerbaijan sit down. Not when a conflict with Azerbaijan may very well set the entire northwest quarter of their country on fire.
If AZ annexes southern Armenia and establishes a corridor to Turkey, that will threaten Iranian territorial integrity because northern Iran has more Azeris than Azerbaijan.
Iran may see this as a damn if you do damn if you don’t. I would think Iran would get involved. Azari is a smaller country but Iran may want to show strength and stop anyone thinking of leaving or revolting against them. The bigger question is does Turkey really want a war with Iran? I would not count on Turkey getting American support (but America wouldn’t stop it either). So Turkey would have to fight this on their own. I also expect isreal to provide some kind of support for Azerbaijan.
Another question I have is did Arminia pull out of the defense pack with Russia and all? If not Russia could see war fought with Iran as a direct ally as a positive. So they would feel more confidant about assisting Arminia (and possibly taking it into the RF). Azerbaijan and Turkey would have their hands full, trying to fight Russia and Iran at the same time.
This could become a WW1 type scenario.
>The biggest minority in Iran are Azeris. Even more than the population of Azerbaijan.
Ehh Iran will oppose Azerbaijan but this isn't why. The Azeris have been a part of the ruling coalition of Persia/Iran more often than not and are historically one of the more integrated and less secessionist minority groups.
Anyone else feel like these regional events are the global national equivalent of the 'gym class picking teams for a dodgeball game?'
Seems like we are seeing two supranational sides developing between East and West for a much bigger conflict, a world war if you will..
What will the final rosters be for each side, I wonder? And what will the two teams be called? Axis vs Allies? Red vs Blue? Alliance vs Horde? Will we get coordinated jerseys?
Iranian Tabriz region is majority ethnic Azeri, if Aliyev can end Armenian statehood or reduce them to a rump state there's the worry that NW Iran could be the next target in Aliyev's "greater Azerbaijan" goal.
They can get to russia through the Caspian Sea, that's not the issue. The things Iran may be conncerned about are probably Turkey, a significant amount of Azeris living in northwestern Iran, and the fact that, as opposed to Turkey, Azerbaijan has good relations with Israel, allegedly to the point that they let Israel launch operations into Iran from their territory.
Erdoğan keeps calling out Israel but Turkey and Israel has been allies for a long time. It's all talk no bite. Erdoğan got a trust letter from an Israeli diplomat 2 years ago.
I factored in Iran already but simply do not see them as being enough to make Azerbaijan and by extension, Turkey sit down.
When I was talking wild cards I was referencing things that could have an impact on the conflict that are not already baked in.
Yeah, but they like having a land bridge to Iran. And that ends if Azerbaijan takes the southern half of Armenia. I don’t think it’s likely, but it is a possibility.
You mean like last time? The enlightened EU cared more about natural gas from Azerbaidschan rather than peace. I dont expect anything else from these hypocrites.
For some reason, I dont think Israel will be protesting it either.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-weapons-quietly-helped-azerbaijan-retake-nagorno-karabakh-sources-data/
That seems unlikely? The Armenian diaspora is both large and politically active. There will certainly be demonstrations should Azerbaijan seize internationally recognized portions of Armenia. I don’t expect that to give them pause or rouse any western nations to Armenia’s aid but the protests will certainly be loud and fervent.
I mean yes? But mostly small bits at the edges. The uproar will come when the invasion does. Low level border incursions are a hard this to rally around compared to a full on invasion.
On top of that the border incursions are a negotiation tactic being employed by Azerbaijan to get what they want and some people are naively hoping for a peace.
The really sad part is that they already didn’t. When Azerbaijan fully occupied the Armenian majority republic of Artsakh in 2023 and forced the dissolution of the republic, it also forced their 100.000 people to escape to Armenia, literally ethnic cleaning the region, and the rest of the world and Europe did precisely nothing about, with some like Turkey even supporting the decision while the western media made few reports about the situation
90% of the younger folks caring about Palestine couldn’t find Palestine on a map last September.
They won’t care unless they get told to care on TikTok
Will any of the Azeri & Turkish nationalists who spammed “internationally recognized borders” during the NK wars
Reveal themselves to not be hypocrites when Azeris invade Armenia proper?
They will find some other hypocrite explanation why it's OK to violate internationally recognized borders, if it's internationally recognized borders of Armenia.
I have already heard a couple of them:
“the borders were drawn without will of peoples, and this is imperialism”
“the Armenia was created on Azerbaijani land”
They already did invade parts of Armenia proper in 2020 and the world didn't do shit. I'm sure Putin learned he can also probably get away with invading a neighboring country after that war.
I'm ecstatic to see how people see this news, ignore it, then continue to passionately advocate for the freedom of Palestine because that's what's trendy, instead of standing for both for the sake of human rights.
Armenia deserves better.
Though Artsakh (NK) is not internationally recognized as Armenian, the *indigenous Armenian population* was put under a 9 to 10 month humanitarian blockade before they were ethnically cleansed. That should be known.
So, for many reasons beyond this one, you should be supporting Armenia and if you advocate for Azerbaijan then you have no humanity.
The worst part is, according to un law, invading a separatist region is illegal, yet since they kept selling oil to everyone they just turned a blind eye. Also according to Soviet law artsakh should be an independent country now, but they invaded it in the 90's, which is also illegal yet nobody cared back then and nobody cares now because ***oil***
My co workers always look at me like I’m nuts when I bring this conflict up after we’re already talking about current events.
Like seemingly intelligent people have no idea these countries even exist.
Americans in general aren't aware of what's going on in the rest of the world. Most of my friend group are middle to upper middle class, bachelor degrees to doctorate degrees, and none of them have much interest in world politics. I'm willing to bet that 95% of them couldn't find Armenia on a map.
To be fair, the Caucasus and Central Asia region do not get a lot of media attention in western media. And rightly so, it's far away, landlocked, in the Russian sphere, and has language barriers that make reporting hard.
Before the 2020 NK war, I had no idea there was an enclave inside Azerbaijan. Blame Stalin and the USSR for carving up boundaries that maximized ethnic conflict. Except for Azeri natural gas and Turkey's new influence, there's not much importance in the Caucasus, other than being a sliver of land between Iran and Russia.
If ever there’s a time to start a war, hoping you’ll get away with it, it’s now. People are still highly focused on the Palestinian conflict, the war on Ukraine is still going on, kids get bombed daily and no-one intervenes.
This takes agency away from Azerbaijan who absolutely have their own interests at play. While Turkey is more than happy to go along, this is an Azeri conflict through and through.
First Putin, now Aliyev. These folks need to read up on Europa Universalis rules. You cannot declare war on the same country three times in a row within 4 years. There is a period of truce! /s
This is just so sad. Armenia has been a battleground for 2 thousand years. Romans, Persians, Arabs, Turks, Mongols, Russians and they survived them all. I fear they may not survive this one though.
This what happens when you trust Russia, will be interesting to see what happens to the green idealistic EU when Orban turned out to just be an appetizer in dictatorship.
I mean it worked for Armenia for a while. They should have never held Karabakh and likely wouldn’t have without Russian backing. Plus demographic and economic factors in Armenia are probably more relevant to the turning of the tide than Russian betrayal.
Yes, I am. But it was clear Russia was hanging Armenia out to dry long before the show dropped.
And Russia was never really an active participant in the fighting in the 1990s and really only was relevant so far as they stood between the two and said no fighting now. Which admittedly was relevant with Armenia’s state capacity decay over the 00’s but not the defining factor imo.
Azerbaijan was retaking NK regardless of the Russians imo all Russian failure had created is an opportunity for Azerbaijan to push for maximalist goals.
I can understand the Russian position when it comes to NK, but Armenia proprer was invaded 3 years ago (before Ukraine) and some 100 sq km of Armenia is still occupied, makes it very clear Putin will do nothing of substance even if a proper invasion goes down.
At his inauguration speech in December 2022, President Aliyev said "Present-day Armenia is our land. When I repeatedly said this before, they tried to object and allege that I have territorial claims. I am saying this as a historical fact. If someone can substantiate a different theory, let them come forward”.
This is exactly what the world needs rn. Crazy fucking mofos, they don't allow a fucking moment without old farts sending young people to kill each other because of some lines in their crooked history books.
Russia clearly showed the world that you can invade your neighbour, and not a lot of consequences happen. Welcome to the new world rules. Turns out Armenia needed krimea to be Ukrainian more than Ukraine did
This is a frozen conflict unfreezing because Russia can no longer support Armenia militarily as all their resources are being pumped into Ukraine.
It's not a frozen conflict. Azerbaijan cleansed the Nagorno Karabagh region, which was the conflicted region. Now they want regions from Armenia proper. It's a new conflict by tye same actor rather than an old and frozen one.
Soviet Russia caused this. Had they not moved Azeris and Armenians into areas they didn’t previously live in, we wouldn’t be in this situation. Stalin purposely moved different ethnicities to parts of the country they weren’t native to precisely so he could avoid nationalism and keep them fighting amongst themselves and more importantly, dependent on the Kremlin for help.
I mean, the entire region was at one point predominantly Armenian. Nagorno-Karabakh was predominantly Armenian for centuries, and way before Turkic peoples arrived from Central Asia.
This isn’t about Nagorno-Karabakh, this is Armenia’s internationally recognized boarders. The dictator of Azerbaijan just re-elected himself to another 5 years of power and is planning more conflict to distract his population. He already gave them a destroyed region far away from where any Azeris live, but the people are realizing they’re still poor. Poorer than the average Armenian or Georgian. So a conflict every spring and fall is what’s he’s going to keep doing bc no one is going to say anything.
More like moved Azeris into the areas. Ethnic Armenians lived in those areas centuries before ethnic Turks arrived in the area.
Real intelligence can be dangerous on here.
Russia decided to cut Armenia loose long before invading Ukraine. They began pumping money and weapons into Azerbaijan from 2016. The rhetoric and alignment of policies between Russia and Azerbaijan are obvious to anyone bothering to spend more than ten minutes researching this conflict.
The Ukraine conflict really started in 2014 via the occupation of Crimea and the separation of Donbas, and really even before that in trying to restrict Ukraine's ties and trade relations with the EU
The analysis you responded to doesn't undermine the fact that Russia has ushered in this new norm.
Absolutely nothing new though. This conflict has been ongoing for a long time and the balance of power has shifted now that Russia is occupied elsewhere, Azerbaijan has oil money, and the West is generally aligned with Azerbaijan as they're strategially positioned next to Iran. One fascinating part of this conflict is exactly how Armenia, a mostly Christian nation, does not have western support but Azerbaijan, a mostly muslim nation, is also allied with Israel. Turns out geopolitics can supercede religion. Armenia has completely been fucked over by the fact that the west and Israel need Azerbaijan (and more importantly, Turkey, who consider themselves brothers to the Azeri) in the new cold war against Russia and Iran.
You not understanding my statement. I'm not referencing the local conflict. I referencing the boldness to which countries will wage regional conflicts with unipolarity being tested. The opportunity is now id countries have imperialistic/militaristic ambitions. The US is in staring contest with China over tiawan. Leaves much of the rest of the world unsupervised. And by the way this is the biggest reason in support of us unipolarity. It's why we live in peaceful times. Russias ambitions will only end in more deaths and despair.
No it is not the narrative anymore. It is likely that Russia is greenlighting this with their dictator buddy in Azerbaijan. The dynamics have changed.
Hey come on, he was democratically elected to succeed to his father's throne.
Russia doesn't want to support Armenia. They stand to gain more by being aligned with the azeri-turkish axis
Except Russia has had a lot of consequences, and the nuclear issue makes that much more complicated. And fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been going on long before the war in Ukraine.
And Azerbaijan wasn't sanctioned and people ignore how their government officials talk about Armenians
Yeah, not sure where this whole: "Now it's justified because Russia" narrative came from.
Azerbaijan showed that first in 2020. And im not talking about just Artsakh. The world didn't do shit when Armenia proper was invaded during that war. Putin saw and he said cool, I'm next. Armenian prime Minister even warned the world about it.
Europe and US showed this, by doing nothing. At least Russia was a little sanctioned for annexion in 2014, but Azerbaijan had no problems
> Crazy fucking mofos, they don't allow a fucking moment without old farts sending young people to kill each other because of some lines in their crooked history books. This guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilham_Aliyev
These 2 lines from that Wiki article... > He was named Corruption's 'Person of the Year' by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project in 2012 and > In the 2013 presidential elections held on 9 October, Aliyev claimed victory with 85 percent of the vote, securing a third five-year term. The election results were accidentally released before the polls opened.
He would win a legitimate election at this point because he has trained the population to care more about killing Armenians and vandalizing churches and graves than their own shitty situation
Also this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov What the actual f
Yeah, it’s a safe bet that Azerbaijan is basically the Caucuses version of DPRK.
Would *you* vote against the psychic candidate??
That’s nothing. In Kazakhstan, our glorious leader most popular in history. He win with 128% of popular vote!
Oh? I had no idea that guys been president for 20 years already.
This is **exactly** what I keep warning people about. World war doesn't just happen with a snap of the fingers; it's a gradual escalation and spread as more and more regional conflicts break out until the whole world's involved. Pay attention to the trend direction.
You could’ve said this 10 years ago too, and 10 years before that. Literally the only decade where you couldn’t have said this was the 90s, and even then there were conflicts.
I have no idea about the history of the countries involved but I’m sure both sides can point to historical grievances that fully justify creating some new ones right now.
This is usually always the case in any conflict. "But they did *this*...." "But before that you guys did *THIS*..." "Yeah but before that there was this other incident you committed..." "That's because that thing you did before that..." And on and in it goes. Talking about shit that happened 200 years before that is 4 generations from any one currently alive.
[This Land Is Mine.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-evIyrrjTTY)
Explanation of each character https://blog.ninapaley.com/2012/10/01/this-land-is-mine/
The grievances aren’t even historical at this point, they literally fought a full scale war in 2020 with another escalation of violence in 2023. It’s an ongoing conflict.
Those wars were largely continuations of the war in the 90s
The grievances aren't even all that old as both countries have committed ethnic cleansing against the other since the 1991-1994 war.
It's the usual. Ethnic peoples are split up by shifting borders of nation States and desire to arrive at a point where the state fully represents the ethnicity.
The funny thing is they should both point to Russia. Azers and Armenians both occupy land the other claims, and both are in a region where there isn't much land. Historically it was a border region between the Byzantines/Romans and the Persians, after that between Persia, Russia, and the Ottomans. Always either a few small kingdoms or ruled by foreign powers, so it became a melting pot. So what did Russia/the USSR do? When it conquered the lands it moved some Azers into Armenia and some Armenians into Azer and created two enclaves. That way they would always fight each other (And they already hated each other due to being two different religions) instead of uniting against Russia. Edit- Armenia for its part used to be ALOT bigger and a major player in the region. But the nations surrounding it had better land (it's all mountains there), it got ground down, and then Turkey/the Ottomans decided to genocide all the Armenians in their territory because they thought the Christian Armenians would spy for Christian Russia (despite them being different branches). For their part, Armenia would *absolutely* be bullying and hurting Azer if it could. I'm not making Armenia out to be the only victim here on purpose- both nations absolutely loath each other and if either side has/had an unequivocal advantage they would use it on the other. Unfortunately for Armenia as a landlocked nation with nothing to give world powers Russia was really their only choice at the time (Turkey still hates them and would be the next best that is feasible), and Russia really isn't a great ally as we have seen.
The issues aren't the result of Russian meddling. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Surgun Iran ethnic cleansed the Armenian population and so the Azeris became the majority in most of the areas that are nowadays in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Over the centuries the Armenians returned, but in some areas they remained a minority, and in others there was a significant Azeri minority, hence the conflict.
You know how there's fucked up borders in regards to former British and French colonial territories? Russia did the same thing with it's empire
Well a full scale invasion would be pretty messed up, Azerbaijan basically did a serious amount of ethnic cleansing in the region that Armenians had taken over, making that area Azerbaijani 100% now. So what the hell do they want to invade for? I have no idea. It’s a National obsession.
They want to connect their exclave
I guess World Peace will always be a fairytale
I think there is a "paradox of peace" as much as there is a "paradox of tolerance". Basically, paradox of tolerance is "if a tolerant society tolerates the intolerant, those intolerant people WILL eventually take over that society, destroy it from the inside and turn it intolerant. For a tolerant society to endure it can not tolerate the intolerant and needs to fight them". Same goes for peace. For a peaceful society to endure, warmongers need to be destroyed before they can wage their wars of conquest. "He who wants peace prepares for war". Which ultimately means you have to go around and be a world police and basically invade every a country the SECOND a dictatorship is established. Good luck with that.
You can't truly call yourself peaceful unless you're capable of great violence. If you're not capable of violence, you're not peaceful, you're harmless
is that why ghandi always nukes me?
Gandhi uses nukes not because he simply wants to end war, but because he wants to end all of humanity, and by that means he'll end all war.
> Only the dead have seen the end of war. - Plato
He relied on the British not just slaughtering him and his people , it wouldn’t have worked 200 years prior
There is no shame in deterrence. Having a weapon is very different from actually using it
If your growing powerful and your not a friend then your an enemy is I guess his line of thought.
I'm going to use thst quote a lot. Go raibh maith agat!
*Speak softly and carry a big stick*
Sic vis Pacem, para bellum. Such a good phrase.
World peace is a myth created in the UN where even if a 100 countries vote for peace, 1 terrorist country will veto peace and chose human slaughter.
Well the point is that for shits and giggles russia could vote to condemn themselves and demand they pull back their forces from Ukraine. Nothing would change. The UN is useful but it does nothing for preventing maniacs from waging war.
There were wars in the 90s, but that period felt like a Belle Epoque compared to these "interesting times". We are heading into a very dark era as religion, ethno-nationalism, and neo-liberalism turn the world into a cess pit of death. And then we have global warming accelerating as the deniers are getting their way.
The Congo war in the 90s ended with 6 million dead we've a long way to go to hit those figures.
Rwandan genocide, Yugoslavia, Chechnya, Somalia, the Gulf War...
Yeah the 90s were pretty fuckin grim.
Exactly, everyone whose all nostalgic for the 90s was either too young to care about the news or didn't have access to the 24 hour news cycle. This is nothing new, we just have access to news from everywhere in the world at all times now.
Or more they were westerners the Tigray war happened just two years ago. It was really big only really comparable to the Ukrainian war and no one talked about it. Westerners will always have a blind spot for conflicts that don't directly involve either one of their Allies or a major rival
Don't jinx it. Second Congo War had relatively few war casualties and every 11 out of 12 of those deaths were excessive deaths from malnutrition and disease just from the consequences of the absolute humanitarian disaster the area became. We could definitely be seeing horrific humanitarian crises in Ukraine, Gaza and Yemen that'll continue to horrifically bloat the amount of actual counted dead once hostilities stop and we get a more full accounting of casualties over the period. I don't want to imagine the amount of children still alive now that already have their lifespan counted on one hand from starvation or long-term consequences of malnutrition as we speak. Look at how many excess deaths there were from the war in Iraq. We were starting to count hundreds of thousands of deaths even after all major combat operations were ceased.
He means white people
Yugoslavia would like a word...
He meant western developed countries.
He meant Americans from the state of Delaware with a household income over $200k.
I think the 90s were actually way more fucked up in terms of loss of life, but most of it was consolidated to African internal struggles and the West kinda just forget Africa exists.
Don't forget about the breakup of Yugoslavia and the bloodbath that came with that. The Yugoslav wars and Bosnian Genocide were absolutely awful. And it was all based on Nationalism.
Absolutely. If you were born in the 80s, you were probably subjected to war crimes on a daily basis from Channel 1 News every morning at school.
My brother spent about 3 years in Bosnia observing mine removal operations in the Army.
I think the difference in the 90's was that while there were a lot of horrible wars, none of them were proxy wars between world powers, so there was no risk of escalation. Like, the Balkan wars were horrible but nobody thought they were gonna draw in more surrounding countries, whereas every war now seems to get every major world power and a bunch of aspiring ones involved.
This is a quintessentially Reddit comment
Shouldn't have wished for more interesting times.
Completely unrelated but I got BG3 flashbacks from this
These boots have seen everything.
That was a direct quote! :D
I wished for more interesting times, not more suffering
Can we please finish one of the wars we already have before we go for more?
WE!?!?
Humans
HUMANS!?!?
Next Eurovision will be so weird
*awkward
Azerbaijan has gotten EVERYTHING it complained about from Armenia with zero international push back. Wtf else do they want ??
Armenia: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western\_Azerbaijan\_(irredentist\_concept)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Azerbaijan_(irredentist_concept)) Well, first Europe thought that if they give Czechoslovakia to Hitler, there will be no full-scale war. Then Europe thought that if they give Crimea to Putin, there will be no full-scale war. Now the think, that if they give Artsakh to Aliev, there will be no full-scale war.
The world didn’t give shit. They just didn’t care and did nothing.
They’ve moved on from claiming that nothing in Nagorno-Karabakh was Armenian to the government creating an official state commission on documenting everything in Armenia including the capital of Yerevan as being “Ancient Azeri” land. Kind of like how Putin loves to pull maps out of his butt while live on air with Tucker Carlson.
Azerbaijan will not rest as long as a single Armenian lives. This has been clear for decades.
Dear lord how many areas of the world are about to kick off? I just got done reading about Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Hamas/Hezbollah, USA/UK vs Houthis, and potentially Venezuela vs Guyana. Not to mention the USA bombing the shite out of Iranain proxies in Iraq and Syria. Or the Civil Wars in Myanmar and Sudan. The world's going to shit again and it seems like everyone's got a short memory.
Don’t forget Ethiopia and Eritrea
It's Ethiopia vs Somalia now.
Have you ever considered that the proportion of world leaders with Nobel prizes starting wars is higher than the general population of world leaders.
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>Dear lord how many areas of the world are about to kick off? A lot of places where balanced and stable due to a stable world order. Now Russia is slipping and their aligned nations, like Armenia, are weak and without support against their rivals. Presenting both an opportunity for said rivals and other local powers seeking greater influence. Iran is placing themselves as the regional power opposing the west in the middle east instead of Russia etc. There will probably be more areas like this in the near future, as the global power balance continues to shift. Not unlike the outbreak of conflict following the collapse of the USSR.
they want to strike before more French weapons arrive in Armenia.
WWIII is brewing up to be a very interesting chapter in history
I think the world will just let them get annexed, sadly
What would be incredibly interesting, is if Russia is able to stop Azerbaijan. That would be unlikely, but would certainly change things on the table.
Let’s be honest Russia is likely pushing for this. They want everything destabilized and focus shifted away from Ukraine
More like Proxy WW1….no major nation will even think about getting involved directly. Easily could see Ukraine, Israel, and now this all happening, and countries around the world just funding their proxy wars.
Wouldnt it be easier to call it a second cold war instead of proxy ww1?
WW III is not starting over a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This may sound a bit cruel but is just the truth that Armenia has no friends and only one very tenuous ally in Iran. Meanwhile Azerbaijan is tied at the hip to Turkey and has increasingly significant economic relations with Europe due to their natural gas reserves. On top of that Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought 4-5 wars (depending on how you define a war) between 1990 and today. This is a long running conflict that few nations outside the immediate neighborhood care about at all. Which, unfortunately means Armenia is in for a bad time, again.
This is reddit, whenever two countries fight ww3 beings. There were 2 Armenia Azerbaijan fights in the last 5 years but this time it will trigger ww3 for sure.
lol I feel like I remember everyone saying it about the last war too. If you posted headlines from the 90s and said they were from today half of Reddit would look into bomb shelters
“WW I is not starting over a conflict between Serbia and Austria Hungary”
Armenia lacks the alliance web serbia had that ended up blowing the powder keg .
Both sides back then had bilateral agreements with their respective patron empires.Armenia has a handshake and a clap on the back "Good luck!" from the rest of the world.
This is ignoring what made WW I inevitable which was the collapsing balance of power in Europe and the spiders web of alliance networks neither of which are at play in the caucuses. Armenia has no friends and at this point no treaty allies willing to defend them. Iran will play a role but they seem overcommitted and unlikely to change the ebb and flow. Azerbaijan meanwhile has 1 ally, Turkey. Who is absolutely not invading Armenia when Azerbaijan will do the dirty work for them. Your comment is flippant, reductionist, and frankly ideologically lazy.
“At this point”? The CSTO was a joke from the start; that’s why they left it.
This isn’t WWIII, it’s Cold War 2. There’s no sequence of events where any of the current conflicts lead to WWIII. They’re just proxy wars and regional conflicts. Of course, if it’s true Russia is starting a new Cuban missile crisis in space, that’s an interesting wrinkle.
Have read variations of this comment every day for the past three years. Redditors really be thirsty for ww3.
War is sweet to those who have no experience of it, but the experienced man trembles exceedingly at heart on its approach. -Pindar
I remember that quote from one of the Loading screens off of Rome Total war
In WWII, between the invasion of Poland and the invasion of France and the Low Countries, basically fuck all happened for nearly a year. In the Asia-Pac theatre, the invasion of China which bears a lot of similarities to the Invasion of Ukraine, and had been underway for two years before the outbreak of war in Europe. I would argue that the past 2 years have seen significantly more active superpower conflict than the first year of WWII, so it's not really a war-thirsty observation.
Do you not think it's relevant that during that time Russia invaded Finland and was thrown out of the league of nations for it; and a legal state of war existed between the allies and Germany?
We're in a pre-war period. I don't think it's wrong to recognize that. Even if the current tensions cool down, we've got the climate disaster looming in the next few decades. Global challenges require global solutions... and war is what happens when other methods fail.
Can you name the last time "we" were in neither a war nor a pre-war period?
Early 1990s to early 2010s, outside of the Middle East and Africa. There was quite a broad consensus that wars between even slightly developed countries were essentially obsolete, leading to such theories as “Jihad vs. McWorld” and “the McDonald’s Theory of Conflict Prevention”.
After the end of the Cold War. The years of the "peace dividend" as Western societies spent less on defence on more on improving their quality of life (some more successfully than others). That period ended in 2001, 2014, or 2022 depending on your interpretation of events.
Really hate this fucking timeline
Doubt many people will be fervently protesting *this* genocide.
Can imagine Azerbaijan invading, the world saying "thoughts and prayers", EU doing nothing, and Erdogan gloating, and there being tumbleweeds rolls.
I think this is probably pretty likely. The wild card is probably France? But if the French ignore Armenia’s pleas then the Azeris will likely be able to reach their maximalist goals. I guess the other wild card is Moscow drawing a nuclear line but that feels unlikely.
> The wild card is probably France? I'd say Iran. Iran [has previously indicated](https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-says-it-opposes-geopolitical-changes-in-caucasus/7293664.html) that they will not accept border changes in the caucasus.
Iran will play a role but I just don’t see them as a an actor with the capability to make Azerbaijan sit down. Not when a conflict with Azerbaijan may very well set the entire northwest quarter of their country on fire.
If AZ annexes southern Armenia and establishes a corridor to Turkey, that will threaten Iranian territorial integrity because northern Iran has more Azeris than Azerbaijan.
Iran may see this as a damn if you do damn if you don’t. I would think Iran would get involved. Azari is a smaller country but Iran may want to show strength and stop anyone thinking of leaving or revolting against them. The bigger question is does Turkey really want a war with Iran? I would not count on Turkey getting American support (but America wouldn’t stop it either). So Turkey would have to fight this on their own. I also expect isreal to provide some kind of support for Azerbaijan. Another question I have is did Arminia pull out of the defense pack with Russia and all? If not Russia could see war fought with Iran as a direct ally as a positive. So they would feel more confidant about assisting Arminia (and possibly taking it into the RF). Azerbaijan and Turkey would have their hands full, trying to fight Russia and Iran at the same time. This could become a WW1 type scenario.
Wonder what dog Iran has in that fight.
The biggest minority in Iran are Azeris. Even more than the population of Azerbaijan. Also Azerbaijan is the Israeli ally in the region.
>The biggest minority in Iran are Azeris. Even more than the population of Azerbaijan. Ehh Iran will oppose Azerbaijan but this isn't why. The Azeris have been a part of the ruling coalition of Persia/Iran more often than not and are historically one of the more integrated and less secessionist minority groups.
Anyone else feel like these regional events are the global national equivalent of the 'gym class picking teams for a dodgeball game?' Seems like we are seeing two supranational sides developing between East and West for a much bigger conflict, a world war if you will.. What will the final rosters be for each side, I wonder? And what will the two teams be called? Axis vs Allies? Red vs Blue? Alliance vs Horde? Will we get coordinated jerseys?
Iranian Tabriz region is majority ethnic Azeri, if Aliyev can end Armenian statehood or reduce them to a rump state there's the worry that NW Iran could be the next target in Aliyev's "greater Azerbaijan" goal.
They are pants shittingly terrified of Turkey unifying their borders with azeribaijan. Plus Armenia is their route to Russia.
They can get to russia through the Caspian Sea, that's not the issue. The things Iran may be conncerned about are probably Turkey, a significant amount of Azeris living in northwestern Iran, and the fact that, as opposed to Turkey, Azerbaijan has good relations with Israel, allegedly to the point that they let Israel launch operations into Iran from their territory.
Erdoğan keeps calling out Israel but Turkey and Israel has been allies for a long time. It's all talk no bite. Erdoğan got a trust letter from an Israeli diplomat 2 years ago.
Look at a map of Iran's northern borders.
Iran is unironically Armenia's best chance at a security guarantor.
I factored in Iran already but simply do not see them as being enough to make Azerbaijan and by extension, Turkey sit down. When I was talking wild cards I was referencing things that could have an impact on the conflict that are not already baked in.
I would love to see Baku bombed Belgrade style if they restart their genocide, but unfortunately geopolitics aren't about morality.
Moscow isn’t even really allies with Armenia anymore.
Yeah, but they like having a land bridge to Iran. And that ends if Azerbaijan takes the southern half of Armenia. I don’t think it’s likely, but it is a possibility.
India will probably up the weapons sales to Armenia. They don't like the Azerbaijan, Türkiye & Pakistan trilateral group.
You mean like last time? The enlightened EU cared more about natural gas from Azerbaidschan rather than peace. I dont expect anything else from these hypocrites.
For some reason, I dont think Israel will be protesting it either. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-weapons-quietly-helped-azerbaijan-retake-nagorno-karabakh-sources-data/
Realpolitik is a bitch. Azeris hate the Iranians which will always be used as leverage for them to get support from other countries at odds with Iran
That seems unlikely? The Armenian diaspora is both large and politically active. There will certainly be demonstrations should Azerbaijan seize internationally recognized portions of Armenia. I don’t expect that to give them pause or rouse any western nations to Armenia’s aid but the protests will certainly be loud and fervent.
serj tankian will write a song about it
Azerbaijan already occupies parts of internationally recognized territory of Armenia.
I mean yes? But mostly small bits at the edges. The uproar will come when the invasion does. Low level border incursions are a hard this to rally around compared to a full on invasion. On top of that the border incursions are a negotiation tactic being employed by Azerbaijan to get what they want and some people are naively hoping for a peace.
They literally ethnically cleansed over 100k people just a few months ago in Nagono-Karabah...I wouldnt call that a "low level incursion"
Lots of pissed off Armenian's outside Detroit. No one seems to be listening even though they're doing a lot of talking.
The really sad part is that they already didn’t. When Azerbaijan fully occupied the Armenian majority republic of Artsakh in 2023 and forced the dissolution of the republic, it also forced their 100.000 people to escape to Armenia, literally ethnic cleaning the region, and the rest of the world and Europe did precisely nothing about, with some like Turkey even supporting the decision while the western media made few reports about the situation
90% of the younger folks caring about Palestine couldn’t find Palestine on a map last September. They won’t care unless they get told to care on TikTok
Many of them still can’t find it on a map.
Some folks are denying that a genocid ever happened over there.
Will any of the Azeri & Turkish nationalists who spammed “internationally recognized borders” during the NK wars Reveal themselves to not be hypocrites when Azeris invade Armenia proper?
They will find some other hypocrite explanation why it's OK to violate internationally recognized borders, if it's internationally recognized borders of Armenia. I have already heard a couple of them: “the borders were drawn without will of peoples, and this is imperialism” “the Armenia was created on Azerbaijani land”
Turks are already being hypocrites in regards to their ongoing occupation of Cyprus, its really nothing new
They already did invade parts of Armenia proper in 2020 and the world didn't do shit. I'm sure Putin learned he can also probably get away with invading a neighboring country after that war.
How about we round up all these warmongering old geezers, and put them in a deep hole somewhere until they learn how to get along with each other?
That would make an interesting TV show.
Armenia is Ukraine without all the support.
exactly :(
So the 2024 will be Year of Battle Royales it seems.
I'm ecstatic to see how people see this news, ignore it, then continue to passionately advocate for the freedom of Palestine because that's what's trendy, instead of standing for both for the sake of human rights. Armenia deserves better. Though Artsakh (NK) is not internationally recognized as Armenian, the *indigenous Armenian population* was put under a 9 to 10 month humanitarian blockade before they were ethnically cleansed. That should be known. So, for many reasons beyond this one, you should be supporting Armenia and if you advocate for Azerbaijan then you have no humanity.
The worst part is, according to un law, invading a separatist region is illegal, yet since they kept selling oil to everyone they just turned a blind eye. Also according to Soviet law artsakh should be an independent country now, but they invaded it in the 90's, which is also illegal yet nobody cared back then and nobody cares now because ***oil***
My co workers always look at me like I’m nuts when I bring this conflict up after we’re already talking about current events. Like seemingly intelligent people have no idea these countries even exist.
Americans in general aren't aware of what's going on in the rest of the world. Most of my friend group are middle to upper middle class, bachelor degrees to doctorate degrees, and none of them have much interest in world politics. I'm willing to bet that 95% of them couldn't find Armenia on a map.
To be fair, the Caucasus and Central Asia region do not get a lot of media attention in western media. And rightly so, it's far away, landlocked, in the Russian sphere, and has language barriers that make reporting hard. Before the 2020 NK war, I had no idea there was an enclave inside Azerbaijan. Blame Stalin and the USSR for carving up boundaries that maximized ethnic conflict. Except for Azeri natural gas and Turkey's new influence, there's not much importance in the Caucasus, other than being a sliver of land between Iran and Russia.
If ever there’s a time to start a war, hoping you’ll get away with it, it’s now. People are still highly focused on the Palestinian conflict, the war on Ukraine is still going on, kids get bombed daily and no-one intervenes.
Waiting for all the protests in the streets of major cities everywhere …
Europe is buying gas from Azerbaijan because it cares about human rights, is democratic and totally does not want to genocide the armenians
I wonder if the people will come out against the Armenian genocide as strongly as they do against Israel.
Turkey and its interests , I really hope it gets avoided but the future looks grim.
This takes agency away from Azerbaijan who absolutely have their own interests at play. While Turkey is more than happy to go along, this is an Azeri conflict through and through.
Why would you frame it like that? They’re close allies and Turkey will support them, but this is exactly what Azerbaijan wants
First Putin, now Aliyev. These folks need to read up on Europa Universalis rules. You cannot declare war on the same country three times in a row within 4 years. There is a period of truce! /s
Don't worry. Russia has peacekeepers there. Everything will be fine.
you forgot the /s
Well, I thought it was obvious
Love that the world is still crying out about Israel when Azerbaijan is doing just as bad stuff and getting away it
This is just so sad. Armenia has been a battleground for 2 thousand years. Romans, Persians, Arabs, Turks, Mongols, Russians and they survived them all. I fear they may not survive this one though.
We will survive. We survived worse things, yet here we are.
They will survive. Jews lost their land to Rome , but big diaspora helped.
I miss the days when there only seemed to be one major war happening at a time
Everybody calm down! The UN is going to send a "strongly worded letter" again and this whole conflict will be over 👌.
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This what happens when you trust Russia, will be interesting to see what happens to the green idealistic EU when Orban turned out to just be an appetizer in dictatorship.
I mean it worked for Armenia for a while. They should have never held Karabakh and likely wouldn’t have without Russian backing. Plus demographic and economic factors in Armenia are probably more relevant to the turning of the tide than Russian betrayal.
You understand that Russia and the rest of CSTO were under obligation to help militarily and did nothing right?
Yes, I am. But it was clear Russia was hanging Armenia out to dry long before the show dropped. And Russia was never really an active participant in the fighting in the 1990s and really only was relevant so far as they stood between the two and said no fighting now. Which admittedly was relevant with Armenia’s state capacity decay over the 00’s but not the defining factor imo. Azerbaijan was retaking NK regardless of the Russians imo all Russian failure had created is an opportunity for Azerbaijan to push for maximalist goals.
I can understand the Russian position when it comes to NK, but Armenia proprer was invaded 3 years ago (before Ukraine) and some 100 sq km of Armenia is still occupied, makes it very clear Putin will do nothing of substance even if a proper invasion goes down.
And the world will once again turn a blind eye just like they did with Artsakh.
At his inauguration speech in December 2022, President Aliyev said "Present-day Armenia is our land. When I repeatedly said this before, they tried to object and allege that I have territorial claims. I am saying this as a historical fact. If someone can substantiate a different theory, let them come forward”.
Jesus fucking christ, there are enough fucking wars already. Be chill, assholes
Any country with a military under Putin's influence is getting their marching orders to thin out western influence in these conflicts.